Natural Hazards, Second Edition
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Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology
Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Hurricane Ike Professional Team Report 22000088 SSttaannddaarrddss EQECAT, Inc. On-Site Review April 13 – 15, 2009 Additional Verification Review June 2, 2009 EQECAT Professional Team Report April 13-15, 2009 & June 2, 2009 On April 13-15, 2009 the Professional Team visited on-site at EQECAT, Inc. in Oakland, California. The following individuals participated in the review: EQECAT Shawna S. Ackerman, FCAS, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary – Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. Branimir Betov, M.S., Senior Software Engineer Justin Brolley, Ph.D., Hazards Modeler and Research Scientist Apoorv Dabral, Ph.D., Project Engineer Aarti Dinesh, Product Manager Mahmoud M. Khater, Ph.D., P.E., Senior Vice President, Chief Science and Technology Officer Omar Khemici, Ph.D., P.E., Director (Structural Engineering) Bob Konz, Structural Wind Engineer (via phone) John Mangano, Vice President, Meteorologist David F. Smith, Senior Vice President, Technology Development and Consulting Jie Zhou, Ph.D., Research Scientist Professional Team Jenni Evans, Ph.D., Meteorologist Paul Fishwick, Ph.D., Computer Scientist Mark Johnson, Ph.D., Statistician, Team Leader Marty Simons, ACAS, Actuary Masoud Zadeh, Ph.D., P.E., Structural Engineer Donna Sirmons, Staff The review began with introductions and an overview of the audit process. EQECAT began with a discussion of the following model change: • Probabilistic hurricane database regenerated to be consistent with HURDAT as of June 1, 2008, and to additionally include the 2008 hurricane season. During the course of the audit, a further change was identified relative to a sampling method (see revised response to G-1.5). The Professional Team was unable to verify Standards A-6 (Logical Relationship to Risk) and A-10 (Output Ranges). -
Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal
1366 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 128 Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal LYNN K. SHAY Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida GUSTAVO J. GONI Physical Oceanography Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, Miami, Florida PETER G. BLACK Hurricane Research Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 24 September 1998, in ®nal form 21 February 1999) ABSTRACT On 4 October 1995, Hurricane Opal deepened from 965 to 916 hPa in the Gulf of Mexico over a 14-h period upon encountering a warm core ring (WCR) in the ocean shed by the Loop Current during an upper-level atmospheric trough interaction. Based on historical hydrographic measurements placed within the context of a two-layer model and surface height anomalies (SHA) from the radar altimeter on the TOPEX mission, upper- layer thickness ®elds indicated the presence of two warm core rings during September and October 1995. As Hurricane Opal passed directly over one of these WCRs, the 1-min surface winds increased from 35 to more than 60 m s21, and the radius of maximum wind decreased from 40 to 25 km. Pre-Opal SHAs in the WCR exceeded 30 cm where the estimated depth of the 208C isotherm was located between 175 and 200 m. Subsequent to Opal's passage, this depth decreased approximately 50 m, which suggests upwelling underneath the storm track due to Ekman divergence. The maximum heat loss of approximately 24 Kcal cm22 relative to depth of the 268C isotherm was a factor of 6 times the threshold value required to sustain a hurricane. -
Canberra Liberals 7 Pages
Suggestion 16 Canberra Liberals 7 pages ACT secretariat Phone (02) 6160 2616 Fax (02) 6293 7660 Email [email protected] Suggestions Submission to the Redistribution Committee for the Australian Capital Territory On behalf of the Liberal Party of Australia (ACT Division) 1 ph: 02 6273 5155 email: [email protected] Suggestions for the Redistribution of electoral Boundaries in the Australian Capital Territory Dear Commissioners, The Canberra Liberals welcome the addition of Federal Division to the representation of the Australian Capital Territory in the Australian Parliament. In making this Public Suggestion, the Canberra Liberals acknowledge the requirements of the Electoral Act 1918 in relation to the making of redistributions, namely that: the Redistribution Committee is required by the Act to: 1. Ensure the number of electors in each proposed electoral division must not deviate by more than 10 per cent above or below the current enrolment quota. The current enrolment quota for the Australian Capital Territory was determined by the Electoral Commissioner to be 119,503. 2. As far as practicable, the Redistribution Committee will ensure that the number of electors enrolled in each electoral division at 20 January 2022 (the projection time) will not deviate by more than 3.5 per cent above or below the projected enrolment quota of 122,731. 3. Give due consideration, in relation to each proposed Electoral Division, to: (i) community of interests within the proposed Electoral Division, including economic, social and regional interests; (ii) means of communication and travel within the proposed Electoral Division; (iv) the physical features and area of the proposed Electoral Division; and (v) the boundaries of existing Divisions in the State or Territory 4. -
Social Policy in the Post-Crisis Context of Small Island Developing States: a Synthesis
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Perch, Leisa; Roy, Rathin Working Paper Social policy in the post-crisis context of small island developing states: A synthesis Working Paper, No. 67 Provided in Cooperation with: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) Suggested Citation: Perch, Leisa; Roy, Rathin (2010) : Social policy in the post-crisis context of small island developing states: A synthesis, Working Paper, No. 67, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG), Brasilia This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/71774 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in -
Aleutian Islands
Ecosystem Status Report 2018 Aleutian Islands Edited by: Stephani Zador1 and Ivonne Ortiz2 1Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 2 JISAO, University of Washington, Seattle, WA With contributions from: Sonia Batten, Jennifer Boldt, Nick Bond, Anne Marie Eich, Ben Fissel, Shannon Fitzgerald, Sarah Gaichas, Jerry Hoff, Steve Kasperski, Carol Ladd, Ned Laman, Geoffrey Lang, Jean Lee, Jennifer Mondragon, John Olson,Ivonne Ortiz, Wayne Palsson, Heather Renner, Nora Rojek, Chris Rooper, Kim Sparks, Michelle St Martin, Jordan Watson, George A. Whitehouse, Sarah Wise, and Stephani Zador Reviewed by: The Plan Teams for the Groundfish Fisheries of the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Gulf of Alaska November 13, 2018 North Pacific Fishery Management Council 605 W. 4th Avenue, Suite 306 Anchorage, AK 99301 Aleutian Islands 2018 Report Card Region-wide The North Pacific Index (NPI) was strongly positive from fall 2017 into 2018 due to the relatively high sea level pressure in the region of the Aleutian Low, which was displaced to the northwest, over Siberia, and caused persistent warm winds from the southwest. Positive NPI is expected during La Ni~na,but its magnitude was greater than expected. The Aleutians Islands region experienced suppressed storminess through fall and winter 2017/2018 across the region. The Alaska Stream appears to have been relatively diffuse on the south side of the eastern Aleutian Islands. Although the sea surface temperatures cooled in 2018, relative to the 2014{2017 warm period, the overall temperature was still warm due to heat retention throughout the water column. -
11 General Circulation
Copyright © 2017 by Roland Stull. Practical Meteorology: An Algebra-based Survey of Atmospheric Science. v1.02 “Practical Meteorology: An Algebra-based Survey of Atmospheric Science” by Roland Stull is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. View this license at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc-sa/4.0/ . This work is available at https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/books/Practical_Meteorology/ 11 GENERAL CIRCULATION Contents A spatial imbalance between radiative inputs and outputs exists for the earth-ocean-atmosphere 11.1. Key Terms 330 system. The earth loses energy at all latitudes due 11.2. A Simple Description of the Global Circulation 330 to outgoing infrared (IR) radiation. Near the trop- 11.2.1. Near the Surface 330 ics, more solar radiation enters than IR leaves, hence 11.2.2. Upper-troposphere 331 there is a net input of radiative energy. Near Earth’s 11.2.3. Vertical Circulations 332 poles, incoming solar radiation is too weak to totally 11.2.4. Monsoonal Circulations 333 offset the IR cooling, allowing a net loss of energy. 11.3. Radiative Differential Heating 334 The result is differential heating, creating warm 11.3.1. North-South Temperature Gradient 335 equatorial air and cold polar air (Fig. 11.1a). 11.3.2. Global Radiation Budgets 336 This imbalance drives the global-scale general 11.3.3. Radiative Forcing by Latitude Belt 338 circulation of winds. Such a circulation is a fluid- 11.3.4. General Circulation Heat Transport 338 dynamical analogy to Le Chatelier’s Principle of 11.4. -
Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS This PDF is available at http://www.nap.edu/24712 SHARE Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report DETAILS 132 pages | 8.5 x 11 | PAPERBACK ISBN 978-0-309-45664-7 | DOI: 10.17226/24712 CONTRIBUTORS GET THIS BOOK Committee to Review the Draft Climate Science Special Report; Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and FIND RELATED TITLES Medicine Visit the National Academies Press at NAP.edu and login or register to get: – Access to free PDF downloads of thousands of scientific reports – 10% off the price of print titles – Email or social media notifications of new titles related to your interests – Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. (Request Permission) Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report Committee to Review the Draft Climatee Science Special Report Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies A Report of Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under award numbers NNH14CK78B and NNH14CK79D. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. -
Janny Wurts ______Supporting Membership(S) at US$35 Each = US$______
Address Correction Requested Address CorrectionRequested Convention 2004 2004 Convention World Fantasy Tempe, AZ 85285-6665Tempe, USA C/O LepreconInc. P.O. Box26665 The 30th Annual World Fantasy Convention October 28-31, 2004 Tempe Mission Palms Hotel Tempe, Arizona USA Progress Report #2 P 12 P 1 Leprecon Inc. presents World Fantasy Con 2004 Registration Form NAME(S) _____________________________________________________________ The 30th Annual ADDRESS ____________________________________________________________ World Fantasy Convention CITY _________________________________________________________________ October 28-31, 2004 STATE/PROVINCE _____________________________________________________ Tempe Mission Palms Hotel ZIP/POSTAL CODE _____________________________________________________ Tempe, Arizona USA COUNTRY ____________________________________________________________ EMAIL _______________________________________________________________ Author Guest of Honour PHONE _______________________________________________________________ Gwyneth Jones FAX __________________________________________________________________ Artist Guest of Honor PROFESSION (Writer, Artist, Editor, Fan, etc.) ______________________________________________________________________ Janny Wurts _______ Supporting Membership(s) at US$35 each = US$_________ Editor Guest of Honor _______ Attending Membership(s) at US$_______ each = US$_________ Ellen Datlow _______ Banquet Tickets at US$53 each = US$ _________ Total US$___________ Publisher Guest of Honor _______ Check: -
The Canberra Firestorm
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Summary of a Program Review Held at Huntsville, Alabama October 19-21, 1982
Summary of a program review held at Huntsville, Alabama October 19-21, 1982 - TECH LIBRARY KAFEI, NM lllllllsllllllRlRllffllilrml OOSSE!?b NASA Conference Publication 2259 NASA/MSFCFY-82 Atmospheric Processes Research Review Compiled by Robert E. Turner George C. Marshall Space Flight Center Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama Summary of a program review held at Huntsville, Alabama October 19-21, 1982 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Sclontlflc and Tochnlcal InformatIon Branch 1983 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The productive inputs and comments from the participants and attendees in the Atmospheric Processes Research Review contributed very much to the success of the review. The opportunity provided for everyone to become better acquainted with the work of other investigators and to see how the research relates to the overall objective of NASA's Atmospheric Processes Research Program was an important aspect of the review. Appreciation is expressed to all those who participated in the review. The organizers trust that participation will provide each with a better frame of reference from which to proceed with the next year's research activities. ii PREFACE Each year NASA supports research in various disciplinary program areas. The coordination and exchange of information among those sponsored by NASA to conduct research studies are important elements of each program. The Office of Space Science and Applications and the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology, via Announcements of Opportunity (AO), Application Notices (AN),etc., invites interested investigators throughout the country to communicate their research ideas within NASA and in institutions. The proposals in the Atmospheric Processes Research area selected and assigned to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC's) Atmospheric Sciences Division for technical monitorship, together with the research efforts included in the FY-82 MSFC Research and Technology Operating Plan (RTOP1 I are the source of principal focus for the NASA/MSFC FY-82 Atmospheric Processes Research Review. -
Economic Inequality and Institutional Adaptation in Response to Flood Hazards: a Historical Analysis
Copyright © 2018 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. van Bavel, B., D. R. Curtis, and T. Soens. 2018. Economic inequality and institutional adaptation in response to flood hazards: a historical analysis. Ecology and Society 23(4):30. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10491-230430 Research Economic inequality and institutional adaptation in response to flood hazards: a historical analysis Bas van Bavel 1, Daniel R. Curtis 2 and Tim Soens 3 ABSTRACT. To adequately respond to crises, adaptive governance is crucial, but sometimes institutional adaptation is constrained, even when a society is faced with acute hazards. We hypothesize that economic inequality, defined as unequal ownership of wealth and access to resources, crucially interacts with the way institutions function and are adapted or not. Because the time span for societal responses may be lengthy, we use the historical record as a laboratory to test our hypothesis. In doing so, we focus on floods and water management infrastructure. The test area is one where flood hazards were very evident—the Low Countries (present-day Netherlands and Belgium) in the premodern period (1300–1800)—and we employ comparative analysis of three regions within this geographical area. We draw two conclusions: first, both equitable and inequitable societies can demonstrate resilience in the face of floods, but only if the institutions employed to deal with the hazard are suited to the distributive context. Institutions must change parallel to any changes in inequality. Second, we show that institutional adaptation was not inevitable, but also sometimes failed to occur. Institutional adaptation was never inevitably triggered by stimulus of a hazard, but dependent on socio-political context. -
Topics Geo Natural Catastrophes 2008 Analyses, Assessments, Positions
Knowledge series Topics Geo Natural catastrophes 2008 Analyses, assessments, positions Australasia/Oceania version Contents 2 In focus 5 Hurricane Ike – The most expensive hurricane of the 2008 season 13 North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2008 14 Catastrophe portraits 17 January: Winter damage in China 20 May: Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar 22 May: Earthquake in Sichuan, China 24 May/June: Storm series Hilal, Germany 28 Climate and climate change >>> Topics Geo Australasia/Oceania version 31 Data, facts, background 34 NatCatSERVICE 35 The year in figures 36 Pictures of the year Cover: 38 Great natural catastrophes 1950–2008 The picture on the cover shows the city of Galveston on the coast of Texas on 40 Geo news 9 September 2008 before Hurricane Ike made landfall. 40 Current corporate partnerships Inside front cover: 41 Globe of Natural Hazards This photo was taken on 15 September 2008 after Hurricane Ike had passed through. Apart from a few exceptions, the entire section of coast was razed to the ground. Geo Risks Research think tank Environment and market conditions are changing at breathtak- ing speed. Demand for new coverage concepts for complex risks is constantly increasing. This calls for experience and steady further development of our specialist knowledge. In addition, we are continually networking with external partners in economics and research and entering into business-related cooperative relationships with leading experts. In this issue of Topics Geo we introduce you to some of our cur- rent scientific partnerships. Our intent is to pursue research into new and emerging areas of risk, to make them manageable and thus expand the frontiers of insurability.