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Hurricane Climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States

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Hurricane Climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States *id. lSffAq- NOAA Technical Report NWS 38 T oI Hurricane Climatology for the Atlantic and C Gulf Coasts of the United States Silver Spring, MD April 1987 Study completed under agreement EMW-84-E-1589 for FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service NOAA TECHNICAL REPORTS National Weather Service Series The National Weather Service (NWS) observes and measures atmospheric phenomena; develops and distrib utes forecasts of weather conditions and warnings of adverse weather; collects and disseminates weather information to meet the needs of the public and specialized users. The NWS develops the national meteorological service system and improves procedures, techniques, and dissemination for weather and hydrologic measurements, and forecasts. NWS series of NOAA Technical Reports is a continuation of the former series, ESSA Technical Report Weather Bureau (WB). Reports listed below are available from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Depart ment of Commerce, Sills Bldg., 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161. Prices vary. Order by accession number (given in parentheses). ESSA Technical Reports WB 1 Monthly Mean 100-, 50-, 30-, and 10-Millibar Charts January 1964 through December 1965 of the IQSY Period. Staff, Upper Air Branch, National Meteorological Center, February 1967, 7 p, 96 charts. (AD 651 101) WB 2 Weekly Synoptic Analyses, 5-, 2-, and 0.4-Mb Surfaces for 1964 (based on observations of the Meteorological Rocket Network during the IQSY). Staff, Upper Air Branch, National Meteorologi cal Center, April 1967, 16 p, 160 charts. (AD 652 696) WB 3 Weekly Synoptic Analyses, 5-, 2-, and 0.4-Mb Surfaces for 1965 (based on observations of the Meteorological Rocket Network during the IQSY). Staff, Upper Air Branch, National Meteorologi cal Center, August 1967, 173 p. (AD 662 053) WB 4 The March-May 1965 Floods in the Upper Mississippi, Missouri, and Red River of the North Basins. J. L. H. Paulhus and E. R. Nelson, Office of Hydrology, August 1967, 100 p. WB 5 Climatological Probabilities of Precipitation for the Conterminous United States. Donald L. Jorgensen, Techniques Development Laboratory, December 1967, 60 p. WB 6 Climatology of Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. M. A. Alaka, Techniques Development Laboratory, May 1968, 18 p. WB 7 Frequency and Areal Distributions of Tropical Storm Rainfall in the United States Coastal Region on the Gulf of Mexico. Hugo V. Goodyear, Office of Hydrology, July 1968, 33 p. WB 8 Critical Fire Weather Patterns in the Conterminous United States. Mark J. Schroeder, Weather Bureau, January 1969, 31 p. WB 9 Weekly Synoptic Analyses, 5-, 2-, and 0.4-Mb Surfaces for 1966 (based on meteorological rocket sonde and high-level rawinsonde observations). Staff, Upper Air Branch, National Meteorological Center, January 1969, 169 p. WB 10 Hemispheric Teleconnections of Mean Circulation Anomalies at 700 Millibars. James F. O'Connor, National Meteorological Center, February 1969, 103 p. WB 11 Monthly Mean 100-, 50-, 30-, and 10-Millibar Charts and Standard Deviation Maps, 1966-1967. Staff, Upper Air Branch, National Meteorological Center, April 1969, 124 p. WB 12 Weekly Synoptic Analyses, 5-, 2-, and 0.4-Millibar Surfaces for 1967. Staff, Upper Air Branch, National Meteorological Center, January 1970, 169 p. NOAA Technical Reports NWS 13 The March-April 1969 Snowmelt Floods in the Red River of the North, Upper Mississippi, and Mis souri Basins. Joseph L. H. Paulhus, Office of Hydrology, October 1970, 92 p. (COM-71-50269) NWS 14 Weekly Synoptic Analyses, 5-, 2-, and 0.4-Millibar Surfaces for 1968. Staff, Upper Air Branch, National Meteorological Center, May 1971, 169 p. (COM-71-50383) NWS 15 Some Climatological Characteristics of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States. Francis P. Ho, Richard W. Schwerdt, and Hugo V. Goodyear, May 1975, 87 p. (COM-75-11088) (Continued on inside back cover) NOAA Technical Report NWS 38 , ATMOS%,, P1` Hurricane Climatology 0 11:1: S for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States Francis P. Ho, James C. Su, Karen L. Hanevich, Rebecca J. Smith and Frank P. Richards Silver Spring, MD April 1987 Study completed under agreement EMW-84-E-1589 for FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Anthony J. Calio, Under Secretary National Weather Service Richard E. Hallgren, Acting Assistant Administrator LA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract............. ................................. .............. ..... 1 1. Introduction...................................................... 1.1 Authorization................................................ 1 1.2 Purpose .......................... ... ... ..... .......... 2 1.3 Scope of report................................. 2 1.4 Relation to flood insurance studies... ........ ............ 4 1.5 Previous studies............................................. 5 2. Data...... ............. .... ....... ..... .................. ... 5 2.1 Introduction......................... .... .................... 5 2.2 Sources of data...................................... 6 2.3 Hurricane central pressure (Po) data.......................... 23 2.3.1 Central pressure criteria based on balanced wind model...... 24 2.3.2 Central pressure adjustments............................... 24 2.3.3 Revised central pressure from previous studies............. 25 2.4 Hurricane radius of maximum winds (R) data.................... 25 2.4.1 Source of radius of maximum winds......................... 26 2.4.1.1 Radius of maximum winds from aerial reconnaissance......... 26 2.4.1.2 Radius of maximum winds from wind records ................ 27 2.4.1.3 Radius of maximum winds from eye radius................... 28 2.4.1.4 Radius of maximum winds from pressure fit................. 28 2.4.1.5 Radius of maximum winds from Honthly Weather Review....... 28 2.5 Speed and (T) direction (9) of forward motion................ 28 2.5.1 Source of T and 8 data ...................................... 28 2.5.2 T and 9 data used in probability distributions............... 30 3. Meteorological parameters and their interrelations.............. 30 3.1 Introduction................................................. 30 3.1.1 Overview of the statistical study........................... 30 3.1.2 Scope of the chapter....................................... 31 3.2 Considerations of data samples for statistical tests.......... 31 3.2.1 Forward speed............................................... 32 3.2.2 Forward direction.................... ..................... 34 3.3 Homogeneity of the hurricane data samples...................... 34 3.3.1 Methods for testing the homogeneity of storm parameters..... 35 3.3.2 Comparison of results from different homogeneity tests...... 37 3.3.2.1 Meteorological method................................. 37 3.3.2.2 Cluster analysis............... ........................ 38 3.3.2.3 Discriminant analysis.................................... 38 3.3.2.4 Principal component analysis.............................. 39 3.3.3 Selection of hurricane groups for independence testing...... 40 3.3.3.1 Gulf coast............................................... 42 3.3.3.2 Florida coast........... ................. .............. 42 3.3.3.3 Atlantic coast................ ................. 43 iii Page 3.4 Interrelations between hurricane parameters................... 43 3.4.1 Brief review of previous studies............................ 43 3.4.2 Methods for testing the interrelations be.tween hurricane parameters. ........................... .............. 44 3.4.2.1 Contingency table with Chi-square test.................... 44 3.4.2.2 Spearman test............................................. 44 3.4.3 Comparison of results from different independence tests..... 45 3.5 Discussion ..................... .... ............. ........... 45 4. The joint probability question: Central pressure versus radius of maximum winds..................................... 50 4.1 Introduction................................................. 50 4.2 Central pressure versus radius of maximum winds.. ........... 50 4.3 Meteorological analysis...................................... 52 4.4 Discussion of analysis........................... .. ............ 55 4.5 Conclusions................................................... 59 5. Other joint probability questions............................ 59 5.1 Introduction.................................................. 59 5.2 Forward speed versus direction of storm motion................ 60 5.3 Central pressure versus direction of storm motion............. 61 5.3.1 Gulf coast.............................. .......... ...... 61 5.3.2 Atlantic coast................ .. .... ...................... 64 5.3.2.1 Atlantic coast, south of 33.5 0 N........................... 64 5.3.2.2 North Atlantic coast....................................... 66 5.4 Cape Hatteras area................................. 66 5.4.1 Parameters for landfalling hurricanes from northeast auadrant .......................... ...................... 66 5.4.2 Parameters for landfalling hurricanes from southeast auadrant ................................................. 67 5.4.3 Landfalling track frequency............................ ... 67 6. Frequency of hurricane and tropical storm occurrences........... 67 6.1 Classification of hurricanes and data......................... 67 6.2 Frequency of
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