Hurricane Gilbert: the Storm of the Century
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Hurricane Outer Rainband Mesovortices
Presented at the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, May 31 2000 EXAMINING THE PRE-LANDFALL ENVIRONMENT OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN A HURRICANE BONNIE (1998) OUTER RAINBAND 1 2 2 1 Scott M. Spratt , Frank D. Marks , Peter P. Dodge , and David W. Sharp 1 NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Melbourne, FL 2 NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 1. INTRODUCTION Tropical Cyclone (TC) tornado environments have been studied for many decades through composite analyses of proximity soundings (e.g. Novlan and Gray 1974; McCaul 1986). More recently, airborne and ground-based Doppler radar investigations of TC rainband-embedded mesocyclones have advanced the understanding of tornadic cell lifecycles (Black and Marks 1991; Spratt et al. 1997). This paper will document the first known dropwindsonde deployments immediately adjacent to a family of TC outer rainband mesocyclones, and will examine the thermodynamic and wind profiles retrieved from the marine environment. A companion paper (Dodge et al. 2000) discusses dual-Doppler analyses of these mesovortices. On 26 August 1998, TC Bonnie made landfall as a category two hurricane along the North Carolina coast. Prior to landfall, two National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division (HRD) aircraft conducted surveillance missions offshore the Carolina coast. While performing these missions near altitudes of 3.5 and 2.1 km, both aircraft were required to deviate around intense cells within a dominant outer rainband, 165 to 195 km northeast of the TC center. On-board radars detected apparent mini-supercell signatures associated with several of the convective cells along the band. -
Resilience Potential: Assessing Jamaica's “Bounce-Back” from Hurricane Dean
Resilience Potential: Assessing Jamaica’s “Bounce-Back” from Hurricane Dean CaPRI is a Caribbean think tank that promotes evidence- based policymaking in the region. CaPRI espouses a methodology which is built on the values of multi- disciplinary work, team work and the utilization of the diaspora in our search for evidence. Committed to the region’s development, CaPRI has strong linkages with the academic community, the private sector and civil society. For information and feedback, please contact: Caribbean Policy Research Institute GUANGO TREE HOUSE, 29 MUNROE ROAD, KINGSTON 6 JAMAICA, W.I. TEL: (876) 970-3447 (876) 970-2910 FAX: (876) 970-4544 E-mail: [email protected] WEBSITE: http://www.takingresponsibility.org 2 Table of Contents Pages List of Figures, Tables and Boxes .............................................................4 Preface......................................................................................................5 Executive Summary .................................................................................6-7 Introduction: Resilience Potential ...........................................................8-9 1. Natural Disasters: The Global Context................................................10-13 2. Natural Disasters in the Caribbean .....................................................14-18 3. Changing Practices in Disaster Management…………………………19-20 4. Disaster Management in Jamaica .....................................................21 4.1 National Disaster Plan…………………………………………….21 -
Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology
Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Hurricane Ike Professional Team Report 22000088 SSttaannddaarrddss EQECAT, Inc. On-Site Review April 13 – 15, 2009 Additional Verification Review June 2, 2009 EQECAT Professional Team Report April 13-15, 2009 & June 2, 2009 On April 13-15, 2009 the Professional Team visited on-site at EQECAT, Inc. in Oakland, California. The following individuals participated in the review: EQECAT Shawna S. Ackerman, FCAS, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary – Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. Branimir Betov, M.S., Senior Software Engineer Justin Brolley, Ph.D., Hazards Modeler and Research Scientist Apoorv Dabral, Ph.D., Project Engineer Aarti Dinesh, Product Manager Mahmoud M. Khater, Ph.D., P.E., Senior Vice President, Chief Science and Technology Officer Omar Khemici, Ph.D., P.E., Director (Structural Engineering) Bob Konz, Structural Wind Engineer (via phone) John Mangano, Vice President, Meteorologist David F. Smith, Senior Vice President, Technology Development and Consulting Jie Zhou, Ph.D., Research Scientist Professional Team Jenni Evans, Ph.D., Meteorologist Paul Fishwick, Ph.D., Computer Scientist Mark Johnson, Ph.D., Statistician, Team Leader Marty Simons, ACAS, Actuary Masoud Zadeh, Ph.D., P.E., Structural Engineer Donna Sirmons, Staff The review began with introductions and an overview of the audit process. EQECAT began with a discussion of the following model change: • Probabilistic hurricane database regenerated to be consistent with HURDAT as of June 1, 2008, and to additionally include the 2008 hurricane season. During the course of the audit, a further change was identified relative to a sampling method (see revised response to G-1.5). The Professional Team was unable to verify Standards A-6 (Logical Relationship to Risk) and A-10 (Output Ranges). -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal
1366 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 128 Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal LYNN K. SHAY Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida GUSTAVO J. GONI Physical Oceanography Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, Miami, Florida PETER G. BLACK Hurricane Research Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 24 September 1998, in ®nal form 21 February 1999) ABSTRACT On 4 October 1995, Hurricane Opal deepened from 965 to 916 hPa in the Gulf of Mexico over a 14-h period upon encountering a warm core ring (WCR) in the ocean shed by the Loop Current during an upper-level atmospheric trough interaction. Based on historical hydrographic measurements placed within the context of a two-layer model and surface height anomalies (SHA) from the radar altimeter on the TOPEX mission, upper- layer thickness ®elds indicated the presence of two warm core rings during September and October 1995. As Hurricane Opal passed directly over one of these WCRs, the 1-min surface winds increased from 35 to more than 60 m s21, and the radius of maximum wind decreased from 40 to 25 km. Pre-Opal SHAs in the WCR exceeded 30 cm where the estimated depth of the 208C isotherm was located between 175 and 200 m. Subsequent to Opal's passage, this depth decreased approximately 50 m, which suggests upwelling underneath the storm track due to Ekman divergence. The maximum heat loss of approximately 24 Kcal cm22 relative to depth of the 268C isotherm was a factor of 6 times the threshold value required to sustain a hurricane. -
BERNAL-THESIS-2020.Pdf (5.477Mb)
BROWNWOOD: BAYTOWN’S MOST HISTORIC NEIGHBORHOOD by Laura Bernal A thesis submitted to the History Department, College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS in History Chair of Committee: Dr. Monica Perales Committee Member: Dr. Mark Goldberg Committee Member: Dr. Kristin Wintersteen University of Houston May 2020 Copyright 2020, Laura Bernal “A land without ruins is a land without memories – a land without memories is a land without history.” -Father Abram Joseph Ryan, “A Land Without Ruins” iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First, and foremost, I want to thank God for guiding me on this journey. Thank you to my family for their unwavering support, especially to my parents and sisters. Thank you for listening to me every time I needed to work out an idea and for staying up late with me as I worked on this project. More importantly, thank you for accompanying me to the Baytown Nature Center hoping to find more house foundations. I am very grateful to the professors who helped me. Dr. Monica Perales, my advisor, thank you for your patience and your guidance as I worked on this project. Thank you to my defense committee, Dr. Kristin Wintersteen and Dr. Goldberg. Your advice helped make this my best work. Additionally, I would like to thank Dr. Debbie Harwell, who encouraged me to pursue this project, even when I doubted it its impact. Thank you to the friends and co-workers who listened to my opinions and encouraged me to not give up. Lastly, I would like to thank the people I interviewed. -
Hurricane Irma Storm Review
Hurricane Irma Storm Review November 11, 2018 At Duke Energy Florida, we power more than 4 million lives Service territory includes: . Service to 1.8 million retail customers in 35 counties . 13,000 square miles . More than 5,100 miles of transmission lines and 32,000 miles of distribution lines . Owns and operates nearly 9,500 MWs of generating capacity . 76.2% gas, 21% coal, 3% renewable, 0.2%oil, 2,400 MWs Purchased Power. 2 Storm Preparedness Activities Operational preparation is a year-round activity Coordination with County EOC Officials . Transmission & Distribution Systems Inspected and . Structured Engagement and Information Maintained Sharing Before, During and After Hurricane . Storm Organizations Drilled & Prepared . Coordination with county EOC priorities . Internal and External Resource Needs Secured . Public Communications and Outreach . Response Plan Tested and Continuously Improved Storm Restoration Organization Transmission Hurricane Distribution System Preparedness System Local Governmental Coordination 3 Hurricane Irma – Resources & Logistics Resources . 12,528 Total Resources . 1,553 pre-staged in Perry, Georgia . 91 line and vegetation vendors from 25 states . Duke Energy Carolinas and Midwest crews as well as resources from Texas, New York, Louisiana, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Maine and Canada . 26 independent basecamps, parking/staging sites Mutual Assistance . Largest mobilization in DEF history . Mutual Assistance Agreements, executed between DEF and other utilities, ensure that resources can be timely dispatched and fairly apportioned. Southeastern Electric Exchange coordinates Mutual Assistance 4 5. Individual homes RESTORATION 3. Critical Infrastructure 2. Substations 1. Transmission Lines 4. High-density neighborhoods 5 Hurricane Irma- Restoration Irma’s track northward up the Florida peninsula Restoration Summary resulted in a broad swath of hurricane and tropical Customers Peak Customers Outage storm force winds. -
Background Hurricane Katrina
PARTPART 33 IMPACTIMPACT OFOF HURRICANESHURRICANES ONON NEWNEW ORLEANSORLEANS ANDAND THETHE GULFGULF COASTCOAST 19001900--19981998 HURRICANEHURRICANE--CAUSEDCAUSED FLOODINGFLOODING OFOF NEWNEW ORLEANSORLEANS •• SinceSince 1559,1559, 172172 hurricaneshurricanes havehave struckstruck southernsouthern LouisianaLouisiana ((ShallatShallat,, 2000).2000). •• OfOf these,these, 3838 havehave causedcaused floodingflooding inin NewNew thethe OrleansOrleans area,area, usuallyusually viavia LakeLake PonchartrainPonchartrain.. •• SomeSome ofof thethe moremore notablenotable eventsevents havehave included:included: SomeSome ofof thethe moremore notablenotable eventsevents havehave included:included: 1812,1812, 1831,1831, 1860,1860, 1915,1915, 1947,1947, 1965,1965, 1969,1969, andand 20052005.. IsaacIsaac MonroeMonroe ClineCline USWS meteorologist Isaac Monroe Cline pioneered the study of tropical cyclones and hurricanes in the early 20th Century, by recording barometric pressures, storm surges, and wind velocities. •• Cline charted barometric gradients (right) and tracked the eyes of hurricanes as they approached landfall. This shows the event of Sept 29, 1915 hitting the New Orleans area. • Storm or tidal surges are caused by lifting of the oceanic surface by abnormal low atmospheric pressure beneath the eye of a hurricane. The faster the winds, the lower the pressure; and the greater the storm surge. At its peak, Hurricane Katrina caused a surge 53 feet high under its eye as it approached the Louisiana coast, triggering a storm surge advisory of 18 to 28 feet in New Orleans (image from USA Today). StormStorm SurgeSurge •• The surge effect is minimal in the open ocean, because the water falls back on itself •• As the storm makes landfall, water is lifted onto the continent, locally elevating the sea level, much like a tsunami, but with much higher winds Images from USA Today •• Cline showed that it was then northeast quadrant of a cyclonic event that produced the greatest storm surge, in accordance with the drop in barometric pressure. -
RE-ANALYSIS of 1969'S HURRICANE CAMILLE COMPLETED Catastrophic Hurricane Now Ranks As Second Strongest on Record
RE-ANALYSIS OF 1969’s HURRICANE CAMILLE COMPLETED Catastrophic hurricane now ranks as second strongest on record A re-analysis of the database for Hurricane Camille, an extremely intense hurricane that devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast on the night of August 17, 1969, has been completed. Based upon this reassessment, Hurricane Camille is indicated at landfall on the Mississippi coast to have been a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with peak sustained winds of 175 mph and a central pressure of 900 mb. This is the same category as analyzed originally, but the peak sustained winds were reduced from 190 mph and the central pressure lowered from 909 mb. Camille is also reanalyzed to have undergone genesis as a tropical cyclone 18 hours earlier than first indicated on August 14, 1969. When comparing Camille with the two other known Category 5 hurricanes that have struck the continental United States since 1900, Camille (900 mb and 175 mph) ranks between the 1935 Labor Day hurricane (892 mb and 185 mph) and 1992’s Andrew (922 mb and 165 mph) as the strongest hurricanes on record at landfall. Hurricane Camille on the afternoon of August 17, 1969, from the ESSA-9 polar orbiting satellite. Revisions to the Camille’s database were accomplished by obtaining the original observations collected – mainly by ships, weather stations, coastal radars, Navy/Air Force/Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance planes, ESSA/NASA satellite imagery – and analyzing Camille based upon our understanding of hurricanes today. (The agency ESSA is now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA.) Margie Kieper, Jack Beven, Hugh Willoughby, Chris Landsea, and the NHC Best Track Change Committee all made substantial contributions toward the reanalysis of this devastating hurricane. -
US Landfalling and North Atlantic Hurricanes
44 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 140 U.S. Landfalling and North Atlantic Hurricanes: Statistical Modeling of Their Frequencies and Ratios GABRIELE VILLARINI Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, and Willis Research Network, London, United Kingdom GABRIEL A. VECCHI NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey JAMES A. SMITH Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey (Manuscript received 10 March 2011, in final form 11 July 2011) ABSTRACT Time series of U.S. landfalling and North Atlantic hurricane counts and their ratios over the period 1878– 2008 are modeled using tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), tropical mean SST, the North At- lantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Two SST input datasets are employed to examine the uncertainties in the reconstructed SST data on the modeling results. Because of the likely un- dercount of recorded hurricanes in the earliest part of the record, both the uncorrected hurricane dataset (HURDAT) and a time series with a recently proposed undercount correction are considered. Modeling of the count data is performed using a conditional Poisson regression model, in which the rate of occurrence can depend linearly or nonlinearly on the climate indexes. Model selection is performed following a stepwise approach and using two penalty criteria. These results do not allow one to identify a single ‘‘best’’ model because of the different model configurations (different SST data, corrected versus uncorrected datasets, and penalty criteria). Despite the lack of an objectively identified unique final model, the authors recommend a set of models in which the parameter of the Poisson distribution depends linearly on tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs. -
© Mitigation of Cyclonic Activity Lawrence Sirovich, Rockefeller University Abstract Under Realistic Estimates of Geophysical
Management of Cyclonic Activity Lawrence Sirovich, Rockefeller University Abstract Based on realistic estimates of geophysical conditions, we demonstrate that the intensity of a hurricane may be diminished before reaching landfall, and under other circumstances, might be quenched in an incipient stage. It will be shown that with present-day technology, it is possible to mix the cold deep ocean with the warm surface layer sufficiently, and in a timely manner, in order to decrease cyclonic intensity. Two strategies will be presented: (1) In a manner similar to hurricane weakening by landfall, a virtual early landfall is created on the hurricane path, before true landfall; (2) An identified tropical depression might be quenched, by cyclonic or anti- cyclonic means, and timely intervention. Estimates of the power needed to perform the needed ocean mixing, in a timely manner, show that this might be accomplished by employing a sufficient number of high-performance submarines. The achievement of this goal is made possible by an unusually high coefficient of performance, O(10^4). The destructive power of the hurricane is a function of a hurricane’s maximal wind speed, Vm. It will be shown that even a 20% reduction in this wind speed produces a ~50% reduction in destructive costs. On the flip side of these considerations, there is the possibility of using such means, under favorable circumstances, to initiate rainfall for relief of drought areas. Novel vessel modifications are introduced to achieve the mixing process It is the contention of this paper that a practical framework now exists for sensibly exploring means by which to reduce the tragedy and devastation caused by hurricanes. -
Richmond, VA Hurricanes
Hurricanes Influencing the Richmond Area Why should residents of the Middle Atlantic states be concerned about hurricanes during the coming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30? After all, the big ones don't seem to affect the region anymore. Consider the following: The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, north of Florida, was Isabel in 2003. The last Category 3 was Fran in 1996, and the last Category 4 was Hugo in 1989. Meanwhile, ten Category 2 or stronger storms have made landfall along the Gulf Coast between 2004 and 2008. Hurricane history suggests that the Mid-Atlantic's seeming immunity will change as soon as 2009. Hurricane Alley shifts. Past active hurricane cycles, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, have brought many destructive storms to the region, particularly to shore areas. Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk. Extensive coastal development and a rising sea make for increased vulnerability. A storm like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, a powerful Category 3, would savage shorelines from North Carolina to New England. History suggests that such an event is due. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 came ashore in North Carolina as a Category 4 to directly slam the Mid-Atlantic region. It swirled hurricane-force winds along an interior track of 700 miles, through the Northeast and into Canada. More than 100 people died. Hazel-type wind events occur about every 50 years. Areas north of Florida are particularly susceptible to wind damage.