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May 19, 2017 Volume Xv, Issue 10

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May 19, 2017 Volume Xv, Issue 10 THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION MAY 19, 2017 VOLUME XV, ISSUE 10 p.1 p.3 p.6 p.8 Alexander Sehmer Abubakar Siddique Göktuğ Sönmez Michael Horton BRIEFS The Taliban’s Spring The Dangerous Impli- The Battle for Yemen: A Offensive: Afghanistan cations of Raising the Quagmire for Saudi Faces a Crucial Year Kurdish Flag in Kirkuk Arabia and the UAE LIBYA: UNEASE IN TRIPOLI DESPITE UAE TALKS could pave the way for elections next year, with Haftar potentially standing as a rival to Sarraj. That suggestion Alexander Sehmer is not one that has been endorsed by Sarraj — and giv- en the security situation in Libya, it seems doubtful the Libya’s Khalifa Haftar had his forces stage a military pa- country would be in a position to hold an election — but rade on May 16 to mark the third year of his Libyan Na- it is one that is being peddled by Haftar’s supporters (al- tional Army (LNA) campaign to force Islamist militants Jazeera, May 3). out of Benghazi (Libya Herald, May 16). With growing international backing, and large parts of Libya under his Within Libya’s political patchwork, the Presidential control, the LNA chief can afford a certain amount of Council, headed by Sarraj, counts on support from an peacocking, but the way forward for both him and Libya alliance of Tripoli-based fighters and militia from Misrata. remains unclear. If those elements now feel too many concessions are being made to Haftar, that support base could frag- Face-to-face talks in Abu Dhabi this month between ment, with some pulled toward the nationalist “salvation Haftar and Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, who government” of Khalifa al-Ghweil, who was ousted from leads the country’s UN-backed government, were her- his base in Tripoli’s Rixos hotel in March and remains alded as something of a breakthrough (The National, strongly opposed to Haftar (Libya Herald, March 15; May 8). Certainly they were an improvement on earlier Libya Observer, November 28, 2016). discussions in Cairo, where Egyptian diplomats strug- gled to keep things on track and the two men tried hard While certain political elements in the West are intent on to avoid each other (Mada, February 25). pushing the line that Haftar is the only actor demonstrat- ing tangible gains on the ground in Libya, the LNA However, the UAE talks have not been universally wel- leader’s position is far from clear-cut. In Benghazi, his comed back home, where some generally pro-govern- forces are still fighting to capture the remaining Islamist ment militias are unwilling to see any rapprochement holdouts of Sabri and Souq al-Hout, while the threaten- with Haftar. At issue is the suggestion the UAE talks ing rhetoric he employed at his military parade is unlike- 1 ly to endear him to his rivals in Tripoli (Libya Observer, KENYA: MILITANTS EXPLOIT TRAFFICKING NET- May 17). Meanwhile, a campaign to hold Haftar to ac- WORK count for alleged atrocities carried out against civilians by his forces in Ganfouda is gaining some traction. The Alexander Sehmer International Criminal Court prosecutor Fatou Bensouda indicated the matter was on her radar in her report to Three Kenyans and a Somali refugee were arrested by the UN Security Council earlier this month. South Sudanese security forces this month trying to make their way to Libya to join Islamic State (IS), accord- Even if Western political sympathies do run in his favor, ing to Kenyan media (The Standard, May 9). The arrests Haftar remains a divisive figure. He may need to make provide further evidence of a recruitment corridor that some concessions of his own if he is to take a greater utilizes human trafficking networks through East Africa, role in Libya’s future. and comes at a time when Kenya authorities are prose- cuting one of the country’s most wanted alleged terrorist facilitators. The four arrested in South Sudan were apparently being trafficked by a cartel led by a man named Dahir Mo- hamed Dahir, currently being hunted by Kenyan police (KBC1, May 9). His is one of a number of cartels that supposedly operate along what Kenyan reports refer to as the “Magafe network.” The network has come into particular focus in recent weeks following the arrest of Ali Hussein Ali, nicknamed “the trusted one,” whom Kenyan authorities accuse of playing a key role in terrorist financing and facilitating the travel of IS recruits from Kenya and Somalia to Libya, as well as of overseeing human trafficking operations to Europe (Kenyan National Police, March 30). [1] Ali was arrested along with two others in the Kenyan costal town of Malindi on March 27 (The Standard, March 30). He now faces a trial on human trafficking of- fenses (Nairobi Times, May 3). Supporters in Somalia say Ali is simply a businessman and trader. According to the Kenyan police, however, Ali facilitated the travel of recruits by land from safe houses in Nairo- bi’s Eastleigh district, Malindi and elsewhere, before traveling to the Ugandan capital of Kampala via the Bu- sia border crossing, on to Juba in South Sudan, Khar- toum and then to Libya. In fact, investigators say the Magafe network maintains at least ten routes to Libya and Syria, including one that involves flying via the Unit- ed Arab Emirates (Daily Nation, April 6). Kenya’s efforts to tackle trafficking have been somewhat inconsistent, but in recent years the government has introduced legislation aimed at making prosecutions 2 easier, and the recent arrests suggests a crackdown of sorts is under way. The Taliban’s Spring Offen- sive: Afghanistan Faces a In April, four people were arrested in operations at the Dadaab refugee camp in Garissa, accused of trafficking Crucial Year and facilitating recruits to join IS and al-Shabaab (Daily Nation, April 6). Kenyan authorities say migrant smug- Abubakar Siddique gling cartels operate in the Ifo, Hagadera and Dagahaa- ley areas of the camp, and have several times threat- With its spring offensive this year, the Afghan Taliban is ened to close the whole complex down, a move seeking to add momentum to its insurgent campaign to quashed by the courts. topple the country’s Western-backed government. For its part, Kabul hopes a peace deal with the notorious The vast majority of people using the Magafe routes are Islamist warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and the renewed seeking better economic circumstances for themselves resolve of Washington and its NATO allies, will see it and their families. Many hope to reach Europe. Far few- remain resilient. er are set on joining militant groups. The network, how- ever, provides cover for the movement of terrorist re- But while the Afghan government enjoys international cruits, and it is in both Kenya’s and the West’s interests legitimacy and support, it faces a robust insurgency and that it be disrupted. the increasing involvement of great power interests suggests the situation will remain troubled. Taliban Strategy The Taliban strategy combines efforts to overrun the countryside with a relentless terrorism campaign in the cities. The aim is to topple the current Afghan govern- ment, which has pledged to create a moderate, inclusive and democratic state, and replace it with the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate (the formal name of the movement). On April 28, the Taliban announced the beginning of its annual spring campaign in this regard, repeating its vow to continue targeting U.S.-led NATO forces and Afghan security forces. The most intriguing part of the declara- tion, however, was its attempt to project the image of an alternative Taliban government. “Mansouri operations will differ from previous ones in nature and will be conducted with a twin-tracked politi- cal and military approach,” a Taliban statement said, using the formal name of the Taliban offensive. It said that in regions captured by the Taliban, “particu- lar attention will be paid to establishing a mechanism for social justice and development so that our people can live a secure and prosperous life,” and added that “state-building will earnestly proceed and institutions will be erected to secure the social, security, and legal rights of the citizens” (Taliban statement, April 28). 3 A week before the announcement, on April 21, around Country Under the Control of the Mujahedin of the Is- 10 Taliban attackers massacred more than 130 Afghan lamic Emirate,” the Taliban listed regions under their soldiers inside Camp Shaheen, the base of Afghan Na- control in more than 400 districts across Afghanistan’s 34 tional Army's 209th Corps headquarters, in the northern provinces (Taliban report, March 26). That claim to dom- city of Mazar-e Sharif. inate 45 districts across the country is significantly more than the nine districts that U.S. forces acknowledge the A Taliban statement called the attack “a reminder to Taliban controls. regime soldiers that they should not needlessly sacrifice their lives for the foreign occupiers and either join the The Taliban also briefly signaled apparent interest in ranks of the Mujahedeen or else desert ranks and go peace talks. “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is in- back to their homes.” terested in finding a lasting solution to the problems in Afghanistan,” a March 7 statement said. However, it also The statement reiterated the longstanding Taliban reiterated that the Taliban continue to seek nothing less stance that the Afghan government is a U.S. puppet. than complete victory. “The soldiers are trained by the Americans, equipped with their weapons and their wages paid by the Pen- “Defending our nation and our followers is our legiti- tagon. How can they claim they fight for their homeland mate right, and we are ready to defend it on the negoti- and not for their foreign cashiers?” (Taliban statement, ations table and in the trenches,” the statement said.
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