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PM 5:13 12/15/10 2011 RUHE Y THE R OF JANUA PROJECT JONATHAN TES A AND STUDY T S SE A C MISZTAL GILE A A R BLAISE F MAKOVSKY, BILIZING A T S MICHAEL FRAGILITY AND EXTREMISM IN YEMEN :: A CASE STUDY OF THE STABILIZING FRAGILE STATES PROJECT :: BIPARTISAN POLICY CENTER 20005 NW DC 1000 Street, 202.204.2400 I Suite 1225 Phone: Washington, www.bipartisanpolicy.org 1 62357_CVR_X2.indd FRAGILITY AND EXTREMISM IN YEMEN A CASE STUDY OF THE STABILIZING FRAGILE STATES PROJECT January 2011 62357_TXT_X2.indd 1 12/15/10 5:14 PM ABOUT THIS REPORT In the fall of 2009, the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Stabilizing Fragile States steering committee directed project staff to undertake a case study of Yemen in order to provide a more granular understanding of the specific challenges found in fragile states. The original version of that case study was published in February 2010, accompanied by a public discussion, entitled “Yemen: The Next Afghanistan?” featuring project co-chairs Ambassador Paula Dobriansky and Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, as well as former Ambassador to Yemen Thomas Krajeski, Les Campbell of the National Democratic Institute and for- mer Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Doran. This staff paper is an update to that original publication and is being released in conjunction with the Stabilizing Fragile States report. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank the Stabilizing Fragile States steering committee for their advice and guidance over the course of this project. We are also grateful to a number of former BPC staff and interns, without whom this report would not have been possible. Audrey Flake helped shape early versions of the paper, while Erin Rodgers, Allegra Richards and David BurtonPerry tirelessly researched and reviewed the final draft. II FRAGILITY AND EXTREMISM IN YEMEN 62357_TXT_X.indd 2 12/13/10 3:21 PM STABILIZING FRAGILE STATES PROJECT PROJECT CO-CHAIRS Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of State Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe BIPARTISAN POLICY CENTER PROJECT STAFF Dr. Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy Director Jonathan Ruhe, Policy Analyst Blaise Misztal, Foreign Policy Associate Director Yadira Castellanos, Administrative Assistant STEERING COMMITTEE MEMBERS Lincoln Bloomfield, Akin Gump Strauss William Marshall, President, Progressive Hauer & Feld LLP; former Assistant Secretary Policy Institute of State Jeffrey “Jeb” Nadaner, former Deputy Assistant Michael Doran, Professor, New York Secretary of Defense University; former Senior Director, National Security Council Rob Satloff, Executive Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Ray DuBois, Senior Advisor, CSIS Amb. Nancy Soderberg, former Deputy Assistant to James Glassman, Executive Director, George W. the President for National Security Affairs Bush Institute; former Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Gen. (Ret.) Charles Wald, former deputy commander, U.S. European Command Sherri Goodman, General Counsel, Center for Naval Analysis Jennifer Windsor, former Executive Director, Freedom House Mike Hess, former Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Ken Wollack, President, National Democratic Humanitarian Assistance, USAID Institute DISCLAIMER This case study was prepared by the staff of the National Security Initiative, the Bipartisan Policy Center’s foreign policy program, and aims to promote a better understanding of the relationship between state fragility and extremism, as exemplified in Yemen. While this paper was drafted with the guidance of the Stabilizing Fragile States project co-chairs and some members, the views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of each of the members of the Stabilizing Fragile States project. Bipartisan Policy Center III 62357_TXT_X.indd 3 12/13/10 3:21 PM FRAGILITY AND EXTREMISM IN YEMEN Executive Summary .............................................................................. 2 Why Fragile States? ............................................................................. 8 Fragility as Threat .................................................................................................................. 10 Defining Fragility and Stability ............................................................................................... 11 Ability ............................................................................................................................. 11 Will ................................................................................................................................ 12 Definitions ...................................................................................................................... 12 Yemen: Case Study in Fragility .............................................................................................. 13 Yemen’s Strategic Importance ......................................................................................... 13 Yemen as Fragile ............................................................................................................ 13 Recent Developments ............................................................................................................ 14 Background ....................................................................................16 Geography ............................................................................................................................. 16 Demography .......................................................................................................................... 18 History .................................................................................................................................. 18 North Yemen: From Imamate to Arab Republic, 1911-1990 ............................................. 18 Ottoman Rule and Imamate, 1911-1962 ................................................................... 18 Civil War, 1962-1970 ............................................................................................... 20 Yemen Arab Republic, 1970-1990 ............................................................................ 21 South Yemen: From British Outpost to People’s Republic, 1839-1990 ............................. 21 British Outpost, 1839-1967 ..................................................................................... 21 The Aden Emergency, 1963-1967 ............................................................................ 23 People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, 1970-1990................................................ 24 Unified Yemen: Civil War and Jihadism, 1990-Present .................................................... 24 Unification, 1990 ..................................................................................................... 24 Civil War, 1994 ........................................................................................................ 25 Challenges to Stability .........................................................................26 Security ................................................................................................................................. 26 Sa’dah (“Houthi”) Insurgency, 2004-Present ................................................................... 26 Southern Secessionism .................................................................................................. 30 Al-Qaida ......................................................................................................................... 31 Sana’a Walks a Line Between the U.S. and Terrorists ................................................ 31 Sana’a and Extremists Turn Against Each Other ........................................................ 33 U.S. Pushes Sana’a to Escalate ................................................................................ 34 Fighting On ............................................................................................................. 35 Other Security Problems ................................................................................................. 37 Security Capacity ................................................................................................................... 38 Security Cerberus ........................................................................................................... 38 Family Affair ................................................................................................................... 39 Wealth of Security Assistance ......................................................................................... 39 Pressures on Natural Resources ............................................................................................ 40 Declining Natural Resources ........................................................................................... 40 Water ....................................................................................................................... 41 Oil ........................................................................................................................... 42 Natural Gas .............................................................................................................. 42 Hopes of Expanding Energy Sector .......................................................................... 43 Population Growth .......................................................................................................... 44
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