Air Traffic Forecast Aéroport International de Genève Final Report 2014, December Orleansplatz 5a D-81667 München Ansprechpartner: Dr. Markus Schubert T +49 (0)89 – 45 91 1127
[email protected] on behalf of Office fédéral de l'aviation civile (OFAC)/ Bundesamt für Zivilluftfahrt (BAZL) TABLE OF CONTENTS 0. Management Summary 1 1. Introduction 4 2. Forecast Approach and Methodology 5 2.1 Overview 5 2.2 Data sources 6 2.3 Model 7 3. Analysis of the current and past traffic development in GVA 11 3.1 Traffic development since 1995 11 3.2 Comparison of real traffic development from 2004 with the forecast figures of 2005 13 3.3 Traffic supply 16 3.4 Analysis of the Catchment Area of GVA 21 4. Forecast Assumptions 26 4.1 Population Development 26 4.2 GDP Development 28 5. Demand Forecast for Passenger Traffic 35 5.1 Relationship between air traffic growth and economic grows 35 5.2 Market Development 37 5.3 Change of Market Shares 39 6. Other traffic segments and ATMs 45 6.1 Aircraft Movements Passenger Traffic 45 6.2 Cargo 47 6.3 General Aviation 48 6.4 Total ATM 50 7. Summary of Forecast Results 54 I LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 2-1: Basic principles of the forecast model - demand model 8 Fig. 2-2: Principle of the airport choice and route choice model 9 Fig. 3-1: Traffic growth in GVA 1995 to 2013 – Passengers 11 Fig. 3-2: Traffic growth in GVA 1995 to 2013 - Cargo 12 Fig. 3-3: Traffic growth in GVA 1995 to 2013 - ATM 13 Fig.