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Progressive Property & Construction Daily Progressive Property & Construction Daily 14 September 2020: FORT, GLE, COST, OTMP; Construction continues on V-shaped recovery path; Renters looking for larger homes; Fortnight ahead A round-up of market statements, news, economics and views from the property and construction sectors NOTE: This marketing communication has been produced by Progressive Equity Research Limited (PERL) and is a Minor Non-monetary Benefit. It does not contain investment recommendations. The views expressed are those of the research department of PERL. To view the Progressive Property & Construction Daily archive click here. For Progressive research on Property & Construction companies click here. Company research Forterra (FORT, p, £m) – FORT is a client of PERL UK’s second largest brick producer and leading building materials producer. Link to Progressive Equity Research note following interim results, Post-lockdown bounce “exceeds expectations”: Trading since lockdown has “exceeded management expectations”, brick and concrete products group Forterra has confirmed in today’s HY results to June. Brick and block volumes have recovered strongly, buoyed by strong housebuilding and refurbishment, while production has commenced at all plants – giving the Group sufficient confidence to recommence financial guidance for FY 2020E. We believe recovery in demand is likely to gather pace, fuelled by Government support for housebuilding. Revenue resilience. Progressive Equity Research has published a multi-sector report examining the importance of recurring revenue, Reliable revenue, please step forward … (link). Services companies covered in the report serving the property and infrastructure sector are: Gas and utilities safety compliance and energy efficiency provider, primarily to social housing, Sureserve Group (SUR – PERL provides research services to Shore Capital on this stock); Safety and compliance provider to commercial properties Marlowe (MRL); and Engineering services group supporting UK infrastructure, Renew Holdings (RNWH). Company news MJ Gleeson (GLE, 614p, £358m) Low-cost housebuilder, focused on north of England, and strategic land enabler, focused on south. FY (Jun) results. Rev -41%, £147m; PBT -86%, £5.6m; EPS -87%, 8.1p; div, 0p (34.5p); net cash £16.8m (HY 19, £30.3m). Home completions -11%, 904. Outlook: “We are currently seeing strong demand and expect this to continue through the year as the demographics of our customer base and the nature and price point of our product helps to insulate us from the impacts of rising unemployment, the end of the stamp duty holiday and the forthcoming changes to the Help to Buy scheme. We have therefore re-affirmed our interim target of delivering 2,000 homes per annum in 2022 and will prioritise investment in the business to achieve it. We expect the strategic land market will continue to recover as house builders cautiously scale up their targets for the acquisition of new sites.” Costain Group (COST, 47p, £130m) UK construction and infrastructure services group. FY (Jun) results. Rev -8.4%, £549m; adj PBT -73%, £5.7m; stat. loss before tax, £90.4m (HY 19, PBT £10.2m); adj EPS -84%, 2.1p; div, 0p (3.8p); net cash £141m (£41m). Loss includes previously reported £90m following legal disputes on two large contracts, for which the group is endeavouring to recover costs. Cash boosted by £100m equity raise. Order book unchanged at £4.2bn. Outlook: “There remains a strong pipeline of further opportunities which we are actively targeting. Looking ahead, assuming no further sustained COVID-19 lockdowns, we are confident of delivering growth in profits and margins next year. Costain is in a strong position with secured long-term programmes and a positive market backdrop, in particular the UK Government's drive to progress investment in infrastructure.” OnTheMarket (OTMP, 93p, £66m) Agent-backed residential property portal. Portal listing agreement signed with Taylor Wimpey (TW.), the UK’s second largest housebuilder, which completed 15,719 homes last year. Taylor Wimpey will be listing all its residential developments and properties for sale at OnTheMarket.com. This follows similar agreements with top-five builders, Barratt Developments (BDEV), Persimmon (PSN) and Bellway (BWY). Economic data Construction output. Monthly construction output grew by 17.6% in July, following the record monthly recovery of 23.5% in June, the level of construction output in July 2020 was 11.6% below the February 2020 level, according to the ONS (link). Construction output fell by 10.6% in the three months to July 2020, compared with the previous threemonth period; this was driven by falls in both new work (9.7%) and repair and maintenance (12.4%) Rental market. Tenants are joining the trend to ‘upsize’ following the lockdown, according to latest research from Hamptons International (link). In the four months between May and August, 34% of tenants that moved home upsized their living space by adding at least one extra bedroom. This compares to 25% during the first three months of the year. 25% of moves post-lockdown were from a flat to a house. This compares to 16% during the pre-pandemic period in the first three months of 2020. Those tenants upsizing between May and August added an average of 1.4 bedrooms and paid an additional 23% in rent, equivalent to an average of £149 per month more. Average rents overall, slipped by 0.5% to £1,019 per month for GB, but rose 2% to £816 excluding London, which fell by 3.9% to £1,848. Fortnight ahead Construction & property: company and economic news 16 Sep Redrow (RDW) FY results ONS House prices 17 Kier Group (KIE) FY results Safestyle UK (SAFE) HY results Bank of England Interest rates 21 Rightmove House prices 22 Kingfisher (KGF) HY results 23 Sigma Capital Group (SGM) HY results First Property Group (FPO) AGM 24 SIG (SHI) HY results Sources: Companies, Sharecast, Factset, Progressive Equity Research Prices are as at the previous day’s close. Copyright 2020 Progressive Equity Research Limited (“PERL”). All rights reserved. PERL provides professional equity research services. All information used in the publication of this communication has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable; however, PERL does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Opinions contained in this communication represent those of the research department of PERL at the time of publication. PERL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of the United Kingdom (registration number 697355). This communication is provided for information purposes only, and is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite securities or units. Investors should seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser or regulated stockbroker before making any investment decisions. PERL does not make investment recommendations. Any valuation given in a research note is the theoretical result of a study of a range of possible outcomes, and not a forecast of a likely share price. PERL does not undertake to provide updates to any opinions or views expressed in this document. This communication has not been approved for the purposes of Section 21(2) of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom. It has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. It is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. PERL does not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this email. However, PERL’s directors, officers, employees and contractors may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this email. PERL or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this email. The value of securities mentioned in this communication can fall as well as rise and may be subject to large and sudden swings. In addition, the level of marketability of the shares mentioned in this communication may result in significant trading spreads and sometimes may lead to difficulties in opening and/or closing positions. It may be difficult to obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this email. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. .
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