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Synergies in Banking M&A: Let's Play

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Synergies in Banking M&A: Let's Play Synergies in Banking M&A: Let’s play Verona, 18 maggio 2009 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, Accenture, its logo, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture, Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, Accenture, its logo, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture, Agenda Pre deal - Danilo Troncarelli - M&A Trend - Synergies in Banking M&A - Golden Rules Post deal - Andrea Dalla Vedova - Integration approach - Action Plan - Golden Rules 2 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, Capital is flowing in all directions, in particular cross border M&A during 2002-2008 are concentrated in Europe (55,8 % of total cross border M&A) Multidirectional capital flows: cross border M&A (#, 2002-2008) Global cross border M&A Europe Cross Border: 168 deals (55,8%) Europe: – Us: 26 deals – Pacific Asia 17 deals US & Canada Cross Border: 73 deals (24,2%) Pacific Asia US & Canada: Cross Border: 52 deals (17,3%) – EU: 29 deals – Pacific Asia: 21 deals Pacific Asia: – Us: 19 deals – EU: 11 deals LATAM Africa Cross Border: 6 deals (2,0%) Cross Border: 2 deals (0,7%) LATAM: – US & Canada: 2 deals Africa: – Pacific Asia: 2 deals – EU: 2 deals Main cross border operations Banca Nazionale del lavoro Bayerische Merger with Abbey Has invested €700m in deals - BNL - (Italy), 2006 HypoVereinsbank AG – HVB National (UK). Deal rated in Portogallo and Egitto Commercial Federal Group (Germany), 2005 €15,6bn, Nov 2004 $5,9B within 2008 to increase Corporation, 2005 Interbank disposal (Italy). the profits out of France from Bankwest Deal rated €1bn, Feb 35% to 50% Aims to CEE and 2008 CR Parma and FriulAdria (+ Mediterraneo 193 Intesa branches). Deal rated €5,6bn, Oct 2006 Note: data are referred to FS completed deal over 500 mln US $ Source: Accenture analysis 3 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, The global FS M&A trend shows a significantly reduction in the 2008 (compared with 2007) after a long period of a high growth rate. 2008 in any case is positioning itself between 2005-06 … Global FS M&A trend (1/2) FS M&A ($ Bn, 2002 - 2008) Domestic Cross border -53% 49,2% CAGR 2002-2007 -16% cross border 33,9% 381 336 CAGR 2002-2007 319 domestic 245 200 196 191 111 122 87 90 53 26 27 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 22,6% 11,7% 21,1% 31,1% 26,6% 33,4% 21,9% % of Year cross Average border 24,4% 11,5% ∆ (pp) ‘02-’07 2007-2008 Note: data are referred to FS completed deal over 500 mln US $ Source: Accenture analysis 4 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, … with some differences among Financial Services industries Global FS M&A trend (2/2) FS Domestic M&A ($ Bn, 2002 - 2008) -16% CAGR ∆ 2002-2007 2007-2008 381 336 319 Other Financials 31,2% -73,8% 245 Insurance 35,6% 2,6% 200 196 Capital markets 31,3% 45,5% 87 Banking 45,4% -18,0% Totale 33,9% -16,3% 20022003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 FS Cross border M&A ($ Bn, 2002 - 2008) -53% CAGR ∆ 2002-2007 2007-2008 191 Other Financials 19,0% 86,0% 111 122 90 Insurance 66,1% -44,7% 53 26 27 Capital markets 116,0% -86,5% Banking 37,5% -48,2% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Totale 49,2% -53,0% % of total 22,6% 11,7% 21,1% 31,1% 26,6% 33,4% 21,9% Note: data are referred to FS completed deal over 500 mlnUS $ Source: Accenture analysis 5 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, In any case, 2008 is different compared with all the previous years and waves. Now is a matter of “super-consolidation” that is opening a period of operating model transformation FS M&A waves Domestic Capability-based Super-consolidation Consolidation Expansion Timeframe 1997 – 2007 Fall 2008 up today Market Overcapitalization Overcapitalization Economic slowdown environment Need for sustainable local Undervalued assets Market discontinuity market share and Economies of scale Regulatory intervention / “shot gun weddings” geographic footprint Desire for regional / global Uncertain outlook – risk of toxic assets, low confidence Cross-sell opportunities footprint Asset divestitures Sources of Market growth Market growth Operating model transformation Value Enlarged customer base Product factories Strategic cost reduction Better market penetration Best practice transfer Best practice transfer and pricing Regional de-duplication Local / regional de-duplication Local de-duplication Next wave of M&A Branch consolidation Cost reduction Examples UBS / SBC (1997/8) JPMorgan / Chase (2000) BofA / Merrill Lynch Citi / Travelers (1998) Barclays / Absa (2004) Barclays / Lehman, Nomura / Lehman BofA / Nationsbank (1998) Santander / Abbey (2004) JP Morgan Chase / Washington Mutual RBS / Natwest (2000) Danske Bank / NIB, NB (2005) Commerzbank / Dresdner Bank Intesa / Sanpaolo (2006) RBS / ABN AMRO (2007) Wells Fargo / Wachovia Unicredit / Capitalia (2007) Lloyds TSB / HBOS BNP Paribas / Fortis JPM/ Bear Sterns Westpac/ St. George Bank Synergies Cost: 50-70% Cost: 70-80% announced Revenue: 30-50% Revenue: 20-30% 6 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, Italian Banking groups still show opportunities to reach next level of economies of scale. But at the beginning of the downturn the smaller dimension was a strength (not leveraged) Economy of scale: Top 5 European and Italian Banking Groups Economy of scale at work Cluster size comparison (€ mln, %, 2007) (€ mln, %, 2007) 62 Bank 5 Bank 4 60 181 Bank 3 58 Bank 3 Potential effect related to 56 Fortis Integration 54 Bank 4 Gross operating Unicredit 52 Potential effect related to Income 50 Lehman Integration 48 Italian (1) and Bank 2 European Bank (5) 61 46 Bank 1 44 Bank 2 Cost to income (%) * (%) income to Cost 42 40 38 36 Top 5 Top 5 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 Europe Italy Average Cost to Gross operating income (€ mln) 48,1 % 51,0 % Weighted Income* on Gross + ROE (%) Top 5 Europe operating Average ROE 18,2 % 12,0 % Income + ROE (%) Top 5 Italy Note: (*) Cost doesn’t include Amortization Source: OneSource, Annual Reports as of 31-12-07 7 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, In previous waves of M&A (1997 – 2007), acquirers achieved average synergies equalling 26% of the acquired company cost base, and 7,4% of the combined cost base Synergy run rate (1997-2007) Transaction Synergy Run Rate Announced Synergy Run Rate Announced Restructuring Charge Acquirer/Target % of Target cost base % of Combined cost base Multiple of synergy run rate Chase Manhattan / JP Morgan 52,3% 16,7% 1,1 Bank of America / LaSalle 47,0% 3,5% 1,0 UBS / SBC 46,7% 19,5% 1,5 Wachovia / South Trust Corp 35,1% 3,0% 1,7 Citizens / Republic 33,2% 9,2% 0,8 Regions / AmSouth 31,0% 9,2% 1,8 Mitsubishi Tokyo / UFJ Holdings 30,6% 13,9% 0,7 Intesa / SanPaolo 30,3% 14,8% 1,0 Huntington / Sky 28,8% 8,4% 1,7 Bank of America / Fleet Boston 28,2% 6,9% 0,7 Fifth Third Bancorp / First Charter 28,0% 1,1% 1,8 Bank of America / MBNA 25,7% 4,4% 1,4 PNC / Mercantile Bancshares 23,8% 2,1% 0,9 RBS / Natwest 23,2% 16,7% 1,2 JP Morgan Chase / Bank One 22,5% 7,0% 1,4 Capital One / Hibernia National 21,1% 2,3% 1,5 Bank of NY / Mellon 20,5% 8,9% 1,9 Overseas Chinese Bank / Keppel TatLee 20,0% 7,3% 1,5 SunTrust / National Commerce Financial 19,7% 3,0% 1,1 Santander / Abbey 18,4% 6,5% 1,0 Regions / Union Planters 17,9% 6,9% 1,5 Barclays / Absa 13,0% 1,3% 1,3 Bank of America / Nations Bank 12,1% Top quartile: 8,5% Top quartile: 0,6 Wachovia / Golden West Financial 9,1% 40,9% 0,5% 14,2% 5,5 Citicorp / Travellers 4,6% Average: 2,6% Average: 1,3 25,7% 7,4% Average: Source: Synergies announced by Banks in Analysts presentations – 1997 to 2007 1,4 times 8 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, Historically, cost synergies have made up over two thirds of bank merger synergies, and revenue synergies up to one third Synergies breakdown COMMERCIAL BANKS Revenue synergies split Sources of synergies % of synergies announced Other ~ 10% Total 100% Productivity ~ 35% ~ 55% Growth Expansion & Revenue 20 - 30% Cross-selling Cost synergies split ~ 8% IT Cost 70 - 80% Corporate ~ 23% ~ 39% ~ 23% Distribution ~ 15% Manufacturing / Back-office Source: Accenture analysis 9 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, A new financial services landscape is emerging from the current wave of mergers Emerging Business Models Business Model Description Example Diversify and Expand Achieve scale in chosen markets Bank of America / Merrill Lynch Increase reach and gain share in Target higher growth markets major markets Exploit global operating model and capabilities Barclays / Lehman Diversify risk exposure Nomura / Lehman Selective/opportunistic acquisitions to enhance BNP Paribas / Fortis scale/footprint Domestic Consolidators Rapidly consolidate for increased scale LTSB / HBOS opportunities Bigger is better, bulk up to survive Commerz / Dresdner Consolidate operations and enhance efficiency Wells Fargo / Wachovia Focus on retaining and winning market share from Banque Populaire / Caisse weaker rivals d’Epargne Divest non-core businesses Opportunistic and Growth Selective / opportunistic acquisitions to acquire HSBC / BER reach or extend offerings Selective expansion into new Santander / A&L / B&B / areas Exploit synergies and scale opportunities (e,g, Sovereign cross-sales) Develop / exploit efficient business models The current wave of mergers is mainly focused on building scale and diversified business models 10 Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved, Illustrative heat-map of high performance synergy initiatives in a typical Banking M&A versus transformational actions that are going to be leveraged for
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