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The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live. -
Coping with the Long Term
Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Marjanke Alberttine Hoogstra Marjanke A. Hoogstra Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Marjanke Alberttine Hoogstra Promotoren: Prof. dr. H. (Heiner) Schanz Hoogleraar Märkte der Wald- und Holzwirtschaft Institut für Forst- und Umweltpolitik Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Duitsland Prof. dr. B.J.M (Bas) Arts Hoogleraar Bos- en Natuurbeleid Leerstoelgroep Bos- en Natuurbeleid Wageningen Universiteit, Nederland Promotiecommissie: Prof. dr. ir. G.M.J. Mohren (Wageningen Universiteit, Nederland) Prof. dr. G. Oesten (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Duitsland) Dr. M. Pregernig (Universität für Bodenkultur Wien, Oostenrijk) Prof. dr. B.J. Thorsen (Københavns Universitet, Denemarken) Dit onderzoek is uitgevoerd binnen Mansholt Graduate School of Social Sciences Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Marjanke Alberttine Hoogstra Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor op gezag van de rector magnificus van Wageningen Universiteit, Prof. dr. M.J. Kropff, in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 16 december 2008 des middags te half twee in de Aula Hoogstra, M.A. [2008] Coping with the Long Term - An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry. PhD thesis Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands. With references - with summary in Dutch and in English. ISBN 978-90-8585-242-1 The Road goes ever on and on Down from the door where it began. -
Intra‐Annual Variability in Responses of a Canopy Forming Kelp to Cumulative Low Tide Heat Stress
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336155330 Intra-Annual Variability in Responses of a Canopy Forming Kelp to Cumulative Low Tide Heat Stress: Implications for Populations at the Trailing Range Edge Article in Journal of Phycology · September 2019 DOI: 10.1111/jpy.12927 CITATIONS READS 5 210 3 authors: Hannah F. R. Hereward Nathan G King Cardiff University Bangor University 5 PUBLICATIONS 23 CITATIONS 15 PUBLICATIONS 179 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Dan A Smale Marine Biological Association of the UK 123 PUBLICATIONS 7,729 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Examining the ecological consequences of climatedriven shifts in the structure of NE Atlantic kelp forests View project All content following this page was uploaded by Nathan G King on 06 January 2020. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. J. Phycol. *, ***–*** (2019) © 2019 Phycological Society of America DOI: 10.1111/jpy.12927 INTRA-ANNUAL VARIABILITY IN RESPONSES OF A CANOPY FORMING KELP TO CUMULATIVE LOW TIDE HEAT STRESS: IMPLICATIONS FOR POPULATIONS AT THE TRAILING RANGE EDGE1 Hannah F. R. Hereward Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK Nathan G. King School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge LL59 5AB, UK and Dan A. Smale2 Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK Anthropogenic climate change is driving the Key index words: climate change; Kelp forests; Ocean redistribution of species at a global scale. -
Village of Manchester Hazard Mitigation Plan Village of Manchester, Vermont
Village of Manchester Hazard Mitigation Plan , 2017 Village of Manchester, Vermont Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................. 2 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................ 2 I. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 3 A. Purpose ............................................................................................................................................. 3 B. Mitigation Goals ................................................................................................................................ 3 II. Village Profile ........................................................................................................................................ 4 A. Regional Context ............................................................................................................................... 4 B. Demography and Land Use ............................................................................................................... 4 C. Economic and Cultural Resources ..................................................................................................... 4 D. Critical Facilities ............................................................................................................................... -
Return Periods of Losses Associated with European Windstorm Series in a Changing Climate
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate J.G. Pinto (a,b) M.K. Karremann (b) M. Reyers (b) M. Klawa (c) (a) Univ. Reading, UK (b) Univ. Cologne, Germany (c) Deutsche Rück, Germany Contact: [email protected] 1 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Motivation - European Storm Climatology, Top 15 Events Storm Storm Economic Damage Storm Name Fatalities rank Year Actual (USD) 1 1999 Lothar 137 11,350,000,000 2 2007 Kyrill 47 10,000,000,000 1990 season 3 1990 Daria 97 7,000,000,000 1999 season 4 2010 Xynthia 64 6,100,000,000 5 1999 Martin 90 6,000,000,000 6 2009 Klaus 28 6,000,000,000 7 2005 Erwin 18 5,505,000,000 8 1976 Capella 0 5,000,000,000 9 1987 Great Storm of 1987 23 4,000,000,000 10 1990 Vivian 50 3,500,000,000 11 1999 Anatol 27 3,000,000,000 12 2002 Jeanett 38 2,531,000,000 13 1995 Thalia 28 2,310,000,000 Multiple occurrences per year may be critical 14 1990 Wiebke 67 2,260,000,000 for contractual reasons 15 1990 Herta 30 1,960,000,000 Source: Perils 2 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Serial clustering of cyclones over North Atlantic / Europe Physical processes: a) Steering by large-scale patterns b) Secondary cyclogenesis (cyclone families) Jet stream, NAO++ Dispersion Dispersion statistics Ψ <0: serial regularity All P95 Ψ =0: serial randomness Ψ >0: serial clustering Sources: Pinto et al., 2009, Clim. -
EGU2014-6135, 2014 EGU General Assembly 2014 © Author(S) 2014
Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 16, EGU2014-6135, 2014 EGU General Assembly 2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Dynamic aspects of windstorm Kyrill (January 2007) Patrick Ludwig (1), Joaquim G. Pinto (1,2), Simona A. Hoepp (1), Andreas H. Fink (3), and Suzanne L. Gray (2) (1) Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany ([email protected]), (2) Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (3) Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany Several dynamical and mesoscale aspects concerning severe windstorm Kyrill (January 2007) are analysed by results of high-resolution simulations with the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM. After explosive cyclogenesis south of Greenland takes place while crossing a very intense upper-level jet stream, Kyrill underwent secondary cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Ocean just west of the British Isles. The secondary cyclogenesis (Kyrill II), was located on the occlusion front of the mature cyclone (Kyrill I), which is very unusual compared to typical frontal cyclogenesis generally occurring along the trailing cold fronts of existing cyclones. The mechanisms of secondary cyclogenesis are investigated based on moderate-resolution (0.0625◦ grid spacing) RCM simulations. The formation of Kyrill II along the occlusion front follows common mechanism for secondary cyclogenesis like breaking up of a local, low tropospheric PV strip along the front and diabatic heating with associated development of a vertical extended PV tower. Kyrill II propagated further towards Europe, and its development was favoured by a split jet structure aloft the surface cyclone, which maintained the deep core pressure (around 961 - 965 hPa) for at least 36 hours. -
Modelling Elevations, Inundation Extent and Hazard Risk for Extreme Flood Events
Modelling elevations, inundation extent and hazard risk for extreme flood events by Davor Kvo čka A thesis submitted to Cardiff University in candidature for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Cardiff, 2017 Dedicated to my parents Marija Čoli ć and Milenko Kvočka i Abstract Abstract Climate change is expected to result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large scale river flooding. Therefore, there is a need for accurate flood risk assessment schemes in areas prone to extreme flooding. This research study investigates what flood risk assessment tools and procedures should be used for flood risk assessment in areas where the emergence of extreme flood events is possible. The first objective was to determine what type of flood inundation models should be used for predicting the flood elevations, velocities and inundation extent for extreme flood events. Therefore, there different flood inundation model structures were used to model a well-documented extreme flood event. The obtained results suggest that it is necessary to incorporate shock-capturing algorithms in the solution procedure when modelling extreme flood events, since these algorithms prevent the formation of spurious oscillations and provide a more realistic simulation of the flood levels. The second objective was to investigate the appropriateness of the “simplification strategy” (i.e. improving simulation results by increasing roughness parameter) when used as a flood risk assessment modelling tool for areas susceptible to extreme flooding. The obtained results suggest that applying such strategies can lead to significantly erroneous predictions of the peak water levels and the inundation extent, and thus to inadequate flood protection design. -
Ten Years of Winter: the Cold Decade and Environmental
TEN YEARS OF WINTER: THE COLD DECADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSCIOUSNESS IN THE EARLY 19 TH CENTURY by MICHAEL SEAN MUNGER A DISSERTATION Presented to the Department of History and the Graduate School of the University of Oregon in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy June 2017 DISSERTATION APPROVAL PAGE Student: Michael Sean Munger Title: Ten Years of Winter: The Cold Decade and Environmental Consciousness in the Early 19 th Century This dissertation has been accepted and approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy degree in the Department of History by: Matthew Dennis Chair Lindsay Braun Core Member Marsha Weisiger Core Member Mark Carey Institutional Representative and Scott L. Pratt Dean of the Graduate School Original approval signatures are on file with the University of Oregon Graduate School. Degree awarded June 2017 ii © 2017 Michael Sean Munger iii DISSERTATION ABSTRACT Michael Sean Munger Doctor of Philosophy Department of History June 2017 Title: Ten Years of Winter: The Cold Decade and Environmental Consciousness in the Early 19 th Century Two volcanic eruptions in 1809 and 1815 shrouded the earth in sulfur dioxide and triggered a series of weather and climate anomalies manifesting themselves between 1810 and 1819, a period that scientists have termed the “Cold Decade.” People who lived during the Cold Decade appreciated its anomalies through direct experience, and they employed a number of cognitive and analytical tools to try to construct the environmental worlds in which they lived. Environmental consciousness in the early 19 th century commonly operated on two interrelated layers. -
The Impact of Flood Risk on the Price Of
The Impact of Flood Risk on the Price of Residential Properties: The Case of England Philippe Bélanger & Michael Bourdeau-Brien 1 Department of Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, Université Laval Email: [email protected] [email protected] Areas / Paper type – Change and Risk - Issues for Property Valuation work? ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of flood risk on the value of England residential properties. We find that being located within a flood zone significantly lowers property values once we control for the proximity to a watercourse that often increases house prices. Interestingly, the effect of flood risk is predominantly associated with the post-2003 period which can be rationalized by changes in insurance practices and availability of detailed information on flood zones. Moreover, people in richer areas appear to better incorporate available flood risk data while people in poorer areas seem to associate flood risk with proximity to the water. Keywords: Floods; Real Estate; Housing; Household behaviour JEL Classification: D12, H31, Q54, R31 Proceedings: ERES2016 pp. xx-xx 1. Introduction Change and Risk - Issues for Property Valuation Floods and other major natural hazards have a far-reaching impact on the economies of work? affected regions. According to a 2015 study from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization1, natural disasters caused more than $1.5 trillion in damage 2 and 1.1 million deaths worldwide between 2003 and 2013. These numbers may yet get worse because of global warming that tends to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (Francis and Vavrus, 2012, Rahmstorf and Coumou, 2011, Douglas et al., 2010, Kazmierczak and Bichard, 2010, Thorne et al., 2007). -
Lifeboats Around the Wash New for Old — Old Lifeboats Restored a Loan from • ^•J APR Is As Near As Your Phone
The Autumn 1 998 oatThe magazine of the RNLI In this issue A Day In The Life of... — the work of the RNLI's Divisional .Inspectors Shifting Sands — lifeboats around The Wash New for Old — old lifeboats restored A Loan from • ^•J APR is as near as your phone Specially negotiated rates for RNLI members Borrow any amount between £500-£15,000 Funds transferred directly to your bank account Monthly repayment LOAN Months Fixed £ 84 60 36 24 12 APR IS, 000 266.43 335.21 499.68 707.53 1334.16 12.9% 7,000 124.33 1 56.43 233.18 330.18 622.61 12.9% 4,000 72.97 91.20 1 34.95 190.34 357.44 13.9% 2,000 37.06 •46.14 67.99 95.67 179.22 14.5% 500 975 11.99 17.42 24.33 45.22 16.5% Example: If you wish to borrow £S.OOO over 48 months, the monthly repayment will be £ 134.35 Total repayment over the term of the loan: £6,448.80. (Interest charged at 13.9% APR). call Freephone and please quote Ref. No. 791/285 0800591682 for further details or an instant decision REGISTERED OFFICE THE CO-OPERATIVE BANK pi t. PO BOX 101, I BALLOON STREET. MANCHESTER MM) «P. ENGLAND. REGISTERED NUMBER W09J7 CREDIT FACILITIES ARE SU6J£CT TO STATUS AND NOT AVAILABLE TO MINORS WRITTEN QUOTATIONS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST THE BANK RESERVES THE RIGHT TO DECLINE ANY APPLICATION The Li oat Autumn 1998 In this issue Volume 56 Number 545 News and Views The magazine of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution The latest news from and about the RNLI West Quay Road, Poole, Dorset BH1 5 1 HZ. -
Supplement of Storm Xaver Over Europe in December 2013: Overview of Energy Impacts and North Sea Events
Supplement of Adv. Geosci., 54, 137–147, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-137-2020-supplement © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Supplement of Storm Xaver over Europe in December 2013: Overview of energy impacts and North Sea events Anthony James Kettle Correspondence to: Anthony James Kettle ([email protected]) The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC BY 4.0 License. SECTION I. Supplement figures Figure S1. Wind speed (10 minute average, adjusted to 10 m height) and wind direction on 5 Dec. 2013 at 18:00 GMT for selected station records in the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) database. Figure S2. Maximum significant wave height for the 5–6 Dec. 2013. The data has been compiled from CEFAS-Wavenet (wavenet.cefas.co.uk) for the UK sector, from time series diagrams from the website of the Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrolographie (BSH) for German sites, from time series data from Denmark's Kystdirektoratet website (https://kyst.dk/soeterritoriet/maalinger-og-data/), from RWS (2014) for three Netherlands stations, and from time series diagrams from the MIROS monthly data reports for the Norwegian platforms of Draugen, Ekofisk, Gullfaks, Heidrun, Norne, Ormen Lange, Sleipner, and Troll. Figure S3. Thematic map of energy impacts by Storm Xaver on 5–6 Dec. 2013. The platform identifiers are: BU Buchan Alpha, EK Ekofisk, VA? Valhall, The wind turbine accident letter identifiers are: B blade damage, L lightning strike, T tower collapse, X? 'exploded'. The numbers are the number of customers (households and businesses) without power at some point during the storm. -
The Patron Goddesses of the Layabout Two 14 Inch Televisions Are Suspended from the Ceiling by a Network of Cables
The Patron Goddesses of the Layabout Two 14 inch televisions are suspended from the ceiling by a network of cables. The televisions, spaced about five feet apart are facing one another. Between them is an ornately decorated column made of mahogany. At the top of the column are a pair of lenses inviting the viewer to look neither to the screen on the right nor on the left, but straight ahead. Different sets of ambient noises come from each television. A cardboard pyramid extends horizontally from each screen, narrowing into each side of the column, adjacent to each lens. The screens are not visible, but the possibility exists that they can be seen obliquely or by means of mirrors, through the lenses. This is in fact the case. A trail of cloudy vapors, seen in three dimensions, passes before the viewer's gaze. On the white walls, in large white vinyl letters, are the names of the clouds as they originally appeared in Luke Howard's 1802 essay, On the Modifications of Clouds. The Patron Goddesses of the Layabout Paul Aurele Robert In the comedic play, The Clouds, Aristophanes critiqued a tendency in Athenian education towards excessive sophistry, pernicious speculation and useless philosophical quibbles. Aristophanes saw such a propensity for thought over action as undermining the foundations of traditional mor.ality and religion, and corrupting justice. The Clouds, who form a chorus, function as a metaphor for metaphysical thought that is not grounded in practical experience but is theoretical, indefinite, and open to possibility. Aristophanes takes the historical Socrates a loose model for his main character, a sophist.