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Modelling Elevations, Inundation Extent and Hazard Risk for Extreme Flood Events

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Modelling Elevations, Inundation Extent and Hazard Risk for Extreme Flood Events Modelling elevations, inundation extent and hazard risk for extreme flood events by Davor Kvo čka A thesis submitted to Cardiff University in candidature for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Cardiff, 2017 Dedicated to my parents Marija Čoli ć and Milenko Kvočka i Abstract Abstract Climate change is expected to result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large scale river flooding. Therefore, there is a need for accurate flood risk assessment schemes in areas prone to extreme flooding. This research study investigates what flood risk assessment tools and procedures should be used for flood risk assessment in areas where the emergence of extreme flood events is possible. The first objective was to determine what type of flood inundation models should be used for predicting the flood elevations, velocities and inundation extent for extreme flood events. Therefore, there different flood inundation model structures were used to model a well-documented extreme flood event. The obtained results suggest that it is necessary to incorporate shock-capturing algorithms in the solution procedure when modelling extreme flood events, since these algorithms prevent the formation of spurious oscillations and provide a more realistic simulation of the flood levels. The second objective was to investigate the appropriateness of the “simplification strategy” (i.e. improving simulation results by increasing roughness parameter) when used as a flood risk assessment modelling tool for areas susceptible to extreme flooding. The obtained results suggest that applying such strategies can lead to significantly erroneous predictions of the peak water levels and the inundation extent, and thus to inadequate flood protection design. The third and final objective was to determine what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by extreme flooding. Therefore, two different flood hazard assessment criteria were modelled for three extreme flood events. The predicted results suggest that in areas prone to extreme flooding, the flood hazard indices should be predicted with physics-based formulae, as these methods consider all of the physical forces acting on a human body in floodwaters, take into account the rapid changes in the flow regime, which often occur for extreme events, and enable a rapid assessment of the degree of flood hazard to be made in a short time period. ii Declaration This work has not been submitted in substance for any other degree or award at this or any other university or place of learning, nor is being submitted concurrently in candidature for any degree or other award. Signed . Date . Statement 1 This thesis is being submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD. Signed . Date . Statement 2 This thesis is the result of my own independent work / investigation, except where otherwise stated. Other sources are acknowledged by explicit references. The views expressed are my own. Signed . Date . Statement 3 I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter-library loan, and for the title and summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signed . Date . Statement 4 I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter-library loans after expiry of a bar on access previously approved by the Academic Standards & Quality Committee. Signed . Date . iii Acknowledgements Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisors Dr Michaela Bray and Professor Roger A. Falconer for their help and guidance during my PhD. This research project was funded by Fujitsu and High Performance Computing (HPC) Wales. The generous contribution of these two organisations is gratefully acknowledged. I would also like to thank Waterco for their help and collaboration. I would like to thank Tom Green from Advanced Research Computing at Cardiff (ARCCA) for his kind help and assistance. I would also like to thank Professor Junqiang Xia (Wuhan University, China), Dr Gergana Stefanova Nikolova (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences) and Dr Peter Whittaker for their help with different mechanical and numerical models used within this research study. In addition, I would like to thank the UK Environment Agency and the Slovenian Environment Agency for providing the topographical data used in case studies that are presented in this thesis. I would especially like to thank my dear friend Žiga Šebenik for his help and constructive comments regarding programming and numerical modelling. I would like to thank to all my colleagues at the Hydro-environmental Research Centre for their assistance throughout my PhD. In particular, I am very grateful to Fei Wang for her kindness and support in the first few months of my life in Cardiff. Thank you very much for everything Fei. Finally, I would like to thank my girlfriend Špela Tomaži č and my parents Marija Čoli ć and Milenko Kvo čka for their unconditional support during my PhD. iv Table of Contents Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ....................................................................................................... v List of Figures ........................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ............................................................................................................. xi 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research background ..................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research objectives ...................................................................................... 10 1.3 Thesis outline ............................................................................................... 11 2. Literature review ................................................................................................. 13 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 13 2.2 Flood inundation modelling ......................................................................... 13 2.2.1 Modelling approaches ...................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Computational grids ......................................................................... 26 2.2.3 Model parameterisation .................................................................... 29 2.3 Flood hazard assessment .............................................................................. 33 2.3.1 Methods derived from mechanical analysis based on experimental studies ............................................................................................... 34 2.3.2 Methods based on empirical or theoretical studies .......................... 46 2.3.3 Physically based and experimentally calibrated methods ................ 52 2.4 Summary ...................................................................................................... 60 3. Numerical modelling ........................................................................................... 66 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 66 3.2 Governing equations .................................................................................... 66 3.3 Numerical methods ...................................................................................... 76 3.4 Shock-capturing schemes............................................................................. 80 3.4.1 Classical shock-capturing schemes .................................................. 81 3.4.2 Modern shock-capturing schemes .................................................... 88 3.5 Numerical models ........................................................................................ 96 v Table of Contents 3.5.1 The DIVAST model ......................................................................... 96 3.5.2 The DIVAST-TVD model ............................................................... 99 3.6 Summary .................................................................................................... 108 4. Case studies ........................................................................................................ 110 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 110 4.2 The 2004 Boscastle flash flood .................................................................. 111 4.3 The 2007 Železniki flash flood .................................................................. 116 4.4 The 2010 Kostanjevica na Krki extreme river flood ................................. 121 4.5 Summary .................................................................................................... 127 5. Flood inundation modelling of extreme flood events ..................................... 128 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 128 5.2 Methodology .............................................................................................
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