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International Reports 3/2016 KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG 3|2016 INTERNATIONAL REPORTS Rise and Fall of Regional Powers INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 3 | 2016 Editorial Dear Readers, A constant struggle for power and influence between states has always figured among the main characteristics of international politics. Regional powers can be considered the middle manage- ment of world politics: sufficiently powerful to make their mark on the region and take on a political and economic leadership role, but not yet or no longer powerful enough to be able to fill this role at the global level as well. In this connection, particular attention is due to those countries that have succeeded in developing into significant powers with regional influence or even further. This applies first and foremost to China, which has become considerably more influential in political, economic and military terms within just a few decades. One of the vehicles China uses to pursue its global political aims is the BRICS association which several authors deal with to start this issue off. While the article gathers different perspectives on BRICS, it illustrates above all one main point: the recent economic problems in most of the member states have strengthened China’s dominance within the group even further. The economic development in Vietnam, the second emerging econ- omy in Asia investigated in this issue, over the last three decades has meant that this country also plays an increasingly important role in the region. Apart from Vietnam’s economic strength, this has above all to do with the importance of its location on the South China Sea in terms of regional and geopolitics, although this not only entails opportunities, but also some risks, as Peter Girke reports. On the African continent, there are actually several potential regional heavyweights waiting in the wings. In his article, Terence McNamee looks at Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, investigating in particular the question as to the conditions that need to be cre- ated for these countries to be able to develop their full potential and play a positive role in shaping developments in their neigh- bourhood. Hüseyin Bağcı and Çağlar Kurç explain that Turkey has a disput- able record as a regional power. Once a successful mediator in regional conflicts, the country has managed to alienate itself from all sides in recent years through its foreign policy conduct. Accord- ing to the authors, Turkey will only be able to regain credibility and influence in the region if it succeeds in reprising a constructive regional and international role. 4 Latin American Venezuela has also come increasingly under the spotlight. Despite its wealth of natural resources, the country has come to be at the brink of economic collapse, not to mention the political circumstances. Henning Suhr predicts that without a fun- damental change in course Venezuela will find it difficult to take on an important role in the region despite its oil riches. Whether we are looking at countries on the rise such as China and Vietnam or those on the decline such as Venezuela, we neverthe- less only see a snapshot of the constant struggle for power and influence. And because nothing is as constant as change, as anyone knows, the rise and fall of regional powers will continue to charac- terise the international system. I wish you a stimulating read. Yours, Dr. Gerhard Wahlers is Editor of International Reports, Deputy Secretary General and Head of the Department European and International Cooperation of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung ([email protected]). 5 Content Rise and Fall of Regional Powers 8 One Plus Four BRICS – Ambitions for Geopolitical Reform and Chinese Dominance Christian E. Rieck / Lars Peter Schmidt / Mark Alexander Friedrich / Jan Woischnik / Alexandra Steinmeyer / Tilmann Feltes / Claudia Crawford / Thomas Awe / Tim Wenniges 34 Only Problems How Turkey Can Become an Honest Mediator in the Middle East, Again Hüseyin Bağcı / Çağlar Kurç 45 What if Africa’s Regional Powers Did Better? South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya as Potential Drivers of Peace and Prosperity Terence McNamee 57 Run Down Venezuela’s Road to Ruin Henning Suhr 71 Powerful or Merely Important? Vietnam as an Up-and-Coming Actor in South-East Asia Peter Girke 6 International Reports 3 | 2016 OTHER TOPICS 83 Fighting the Symptoms Why There Is a Long Way to Go to Defeat the So-Called Islamic State (IS) Nils Wörmer / Lucas Lamberty Rise and Fall of Regional Powers 7 Rise and Fall of Regional Powers One Plus Four BRICS – Ambitions for Geopolitical Reform and Chinese Dominance Christian E. Rieck / Lars Peter Schmidt / Mark Alexander Friedrich / Jan Woischnik / Alexandra Steinmeyer / Tilmann Feltes / Claudia Crawford / Thomas Awe / Tim Wenniges 8 The BRICS are in crisis. The economic malaise in the majority of member states intensifies asymmetries within the group and thereby consolidates China’s dominance. All members use the BRICS for pursuing their own economic interests and for avoiding isolation whilst making contro- versial foreign policy decisions. But it is Beijing that strategi- cally uses its growing influence gained by control of access to its markets and investments. 1. Introduction: confidence and the associated potential for Global Ambitions and mobilisation among emerging and developing Lagging Domestic Reforms nations into a concrete power of veto. In terms of security policy, the BRICS nations have also Christian E. Rieck staked out their own spheres of influence. Under the presidency of India, the eighth BRICS However, the non-Western narrative of emer- summit will be held in Panaji, Goa, from 15th to gence has faltered in light of the economic 16th October 2016. Once again, the images this downturn being experienced by the BRICS annual summit will produce are intended to nations. The BRICS euphoria has peaked and is symbolise the unity of a “post-Western world”, now declining. In the ongoing economic crisis – a productive alliance between strong, ambitious, which in some BRICS countries has now been regional powers that want to combine their efforts accompanied by a political crisis – the power to shape the future – without the West. At the within the alliance has continued to shift steadily turn of the millennium it seemed inevitable that towards China, which is by far the group’s largest power would shift away from the worn-out West economy (and it is still growing). The economic to this dynamic group of emerging nations and a asymmetries between China and the other clever investment banker invented the acronym BRICS nations have always been a structural BRIC (later BRICS) to label the new “investment characteristic of the association, and the weak- opportunity”. As long as their economies were ness of the other countries reveals how China flourishing, Brazil, Russia, India, China and (since has purposefully and skilfully used this platform 2011) South Africa could see themselves as politi- to promote its own interests and its ambitions cal, economic and military powers, indeed as the to become a superpower. It will be interesting voice of their respective regions.1 to see to what extent this Chinese dominance becomes a structural problem for the other Until recently, the “rise of the others” seemed members (and, as a result, for the association unstoppable. The BRICS grouping confidently as a whole). After all Beijing has other means of describes itself as “a key element of a new sys- projecting itself as a major power – including the tem of global governance, first of all, in the finan- ambitious One Belt – One Road, OBOR) initiative, cial and economic areas” and as a “new model a development strategy for establishing a mas- of global relations, overarching the old dividing sive infrastructure and transport network with a lines between East and West, and North and view to linking continental Asia with Europe. South”.2 The group’s integration reached its temporary high point with the New Develop- Despite China’s dominance, the BRICS nations ment Bank BRICS (NDB BRICS). On several are still trying to draw on the global South’s occasions, BRICS has already converted this reserves of legitimacy. However, BRICS is not Rise and Fall of Regional Powers 9 Not on a level playing field: The weakness of the other BRICS countries reveals how China has purposefully and skilfully used this platform to promote its own interests and its ambitions to become a superpower. Source: © Kim Kyung Hoon, Reuters. 10 International Reports 3 | 2016 just another in a long line of traditional (often does not see it this way. India is still hoping to inefficient) institutions set up collectively by the increase cooperation within the union, and Global South, such as the Non-Aligned Move- has particularly high hopes of the NDB BRICS ment or the G77: The BRICS group also does not (founded two years ago) and of a number of its handle sensitive topics such as the advance of own initiatives. Everyone knows that China car- democracy and human rights. Instead its dem- ries a lot of weight in the BRICS group. However, ocratic member states have transferred these as far as India is concerned, the union provides a issues to the IBSA Dialogue Forum. This was set forum for working with China through its institu- up in 2003 to promote the exchange of knowl- tional structures, ongoing consultation, and the edge, skills and technology between India, Brazil creation of conflict resolution mechanisms in a and South Africa. The BRICS format is looser and multipolar international system. This collabora- less institutionalised. In this, it resembles more tion also has to be viewed in the context of other closely the G7, with which it shares the aim of mechanisms for international cooperation. playing a role in regional and global governance based on the economic and political strengths of India’s Confident Claim to Leadership its members.3 Since the Modi government took officeBhara ( - Against this backdrop, the present study will look tiya Janata Party, BJP) in 2014, India has woken at the current situation and outlook from the up from the political and economic slumber that point of view of the five countries involved – as characterised the Singh government’s second individual BRICS members and as a group.
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