Democracy and

27 August 2021

Image 1: Fethih Belaid/AFP via Getty Images. A protester lifts a Tunisian national flag during an anti-government rally in front of the parliament in , Tunisia, on 25 July 2021 Introduction

President Kais Saied decided to enact Article 80 of the constitution on 25 July. Some Tunisians hailed it as a necessary intervention into a broken and stagnant political system. Others called it a coup, signifying the possible end of Tunisian democracy. Saied invoked emergency powers and suspended parliament for 30 days, a deadline which has since passed. He dismissed the prime minister, , the defence and justice ministers. Saied called in the military, who surrounded the parliament. COVID-19 restrictions were extended, a nighttime curfew continued, and Saied reinforced a long-existing rule whereby gatherings of more than three people are not permitted.

The president's move followed months of deadlock and disputes pitting him against prime minister Hichem Mechichi and a fragmented parliament as Tunisia sank into an economic crisis worsened by one of 's worst

1 Democracy and Tunisia COVID-19 outbreaks. This situation resulted in Saied claiming control over the executive, legislative and judicial branches of the government.

Parts of the population drew together in large crowds and took to the streets once more to support Saeid's decision. This reaction reflects some Tunisian's anger towards the moderate Islamist Ennahda, the biggest party in parliament, and the government over political paralysis, economic stagnation, and the pandemic response.

Initially, parliament speaker , the historical head of Ennahda, condemned Saied’s actions as an assault on democracy and urged Tunisians to take to the streets in opposition; he and the party swiftly changed their stance and called for communication rather than confrontation.

Background

Tunisia is often referred to as the one true democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring at home and abroad, because it peacefully held two elections, preserved women's rights, and avoided military interventions. Since 2011, development aid has poured in to support the international community's vision of what Tunisia could look like. Yet, as in neighbouring , the technical assistance provided in conjunction with the aid primarily focussed on areas that served the interests of Europe and the United States, such as counter- training and border patrol management to stem the flow of irregular migration. Protests have taken place throughout the past decade as the Tunisian people continued to rally for greater freedoms, better jobs, services, and their future. The pandemic exacerbated the economic and social crisis, triggering further demonstrations, such as those seen on the Sunday before Saied's decision. Tunisians took to the streets, calling for the dissolution of parliament and government. Then Saied announced his power grab, referring to the corruption that has worn the country down and prosecutions to come.

Many Tunisians are disappointed by foreign analysts and media outlets who refer to the current situation as the 'end of the Tunisian democratic experience'. This shock from abroad has been seen as naive and somewhat self-serving as Tunisian youth, academics, activists, and jurists have not left the streets or muted their voices in the decade since the revolution. They have done this in the face of police batons or mass arrests and intimidation, as seen in recent times. Tunisians have not rejected democracy; instead, the

2 Democracy and Tunisia democratic template in its current form was not working for them. The causes behind this crisis were party politics, alleged corruption and years of successive perceived ineffective government, which has damaged the economy and citizen's welfare. Tunisia's independent institutions, watchdogs, unions and academics have their own ideas to improve the governmental system of their country. Since this particular political crisis began, they have started to propose their roadmaps out of the current situation, including ways to address the grievances of the Tunisian people.

Image 2: Zohra Bensemra/. Protesters demonstrate against Tunisian President in Tunis, January 14, 2011

Governmental shifts and democracy take time; several governments have failed to remove the threat of corruption or revitalise the economy in the past ten years. Covid-19 has added to this strain, seeing the economy shrink by 8.6% last year. While the Arab Spring brought long-awaited freedom of expression and space for democracy, Tunisians say the ten major government changes since have been unable to deliver tangible fixes for widespread unemployment, poverty, inflation, and poor social services, says Monica Marks, Assistant Professor of Arab Crossroads Studies at New York University in Abu Dhabi.

3 Democracy and Tunisia "This year has probably been the hardest year yet since the revolution, economically speaking," Marks stated, and as a result, Tunisians are desperate for radical change. "They want radical shock therapy for Tunisian democracy because they see their system as locked in a deep political paralysis and they're desperate for any kind of solution." But she warns Saied's followers that drastic changes could have potentially severe consequences in a fragile and new democracy. The solution Kais Saied is posing now will change the day-to-day living of Tunisians, but it may also affect their access to democratic processes in the long term.

The Power Grab

President Saied was elected two years ago amid feelings of frustration against Tunisia's political elite. A former constitutional-law professor with no prior political background won 73% of votes, attracting support from young Tunisians and others who saw him incorruptible. The same election delivered a fractious parliament, with no party or coalition declaring a majority. Saied has endeavoured to perform a more prominent role in domestic policy, previously preserved for the prime minister and government. Since January 2021, the president has declined to swear in 11 new ministers.

Kais Saied helped write (and later criticised) Tunisia's constitution. He wants to change the political system of the country and has suggested that Tunisians elect local delegates based on their merit, not their ideology. These delegates would appoint regional representatives, who would then appoint members of a national assembly. However, according to the constitution, two-thirds of parliament would need to approve any charter revision.

Notably, Tunisia does not yet have a functioning constitutional court, so experts' opinions on the legality of Saied's decision vary. According to Article 80 of the constitution, "in the event of imminent danger threatening the nation's institutions or the security or independence of the country, and hampering the normal functioning of the state," the president "may take any measures necessitated by the exceptional circumstances, after consultation" with the prime minister and speaker of parliament and "informing the president of the constitutional court." However, the latter is impossible to fulfil, given that Tunisia has yet to institute a court that oversees a legitimate implementation of the constitution. In addition, per Article 80, the president must also ensure that such measures guarantee a return to the normal functioning of state institutions and services as soon as possible. The adopted measures should

4 Democracy and Tunisia be suspended once the reasons for their implementation have ceased. The Article does not confer unrestricted powers to the president. It implies that the state of emergency does not settle a constitutional dictatorship, which would have concentrated all three branches of government in the president's hands nor allow the suspension of the separation of powers.

Judges and the Judiciary

Since the president announced the implementation of exceptional measures, fears have grown about the possibility of the executive authority taking over the judiciary, especially after the president decided to freeze the work of the legislative power in the country. The Tunisian executive authority has been accused of abuse of power due to their precautionary measures against numerous judges, purportedly on suspicion of corruption. Several Tunisian judges were barred from travelling while others were placed under house arrest following a decree issued by the minister of interior, Rida Gharslawi. This decision against judges holding judicial immunity came without prior approval from the Supreme Judicial Council, who should be informed in advance when judges are accused of public security and order charges. The council is the only constitutional institution authorised to take disciplinary actions against judges.

Ennahda

A party that now styles itself "Muslim democratic", Ennahda has been a political force since 2011. Many Tunisians blame it for the state of the country's current social and economic affairs. Rachid Ghannouchi, was a central part of the last national dialogue in 2013-2014. In the immediate aftermath of Saied's announcement, outside the parliament building that the army prevented him from gaining entry to, 80-year-old Ghannouchi denounced the president's unilateral take-over, stating, "I am against gathering all powers in the hands of one person". He then repeated a call for Ennahda supporters to stand up against Saied and his followers. The party has now called for another national dialogue and has withdrawn calls for protest. Ghannouchi says Ennahda, not the president, has the right to nominate Mechichi's replacement.

5 Democracy and Tunisia Image 3: Chedly Ben Ibrahim NurPhoto via Getty Images. Supporters of the Islamist party Ennahdha in front of the riot police in front of the Tunisian parliament in Bardo, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, on July 26, 2021

The Reaction of the International Community

US and European governments reacted slowly but have expressed concern over Kais Saied's actions. Joseph Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, called for "the restoration of institutional stability as soon as possible and, in particular, for the resumption of parliamentary activity." Both the US and EU avoided describing Saied's actions as a coup but are signalling that Saied's actions are putting Tunisia's democracy at risk. Many Tunisians highlight the fact that US and EU governments have not done enough to support their country over the past decade, particularly in any meaningful technical capacity.

It is unclear where president Saied expects to source financial support as he faces an immediate challenge in managing Tunisia's relationship with the IMF. The government had been negotiating a sorely-needed loan from the fund. The IMF is now expected to think twice about making any commitment.

Tunisia is also part of a regional rivalry that pits countries such as Turkey and , which supported the Arab Spring and Islamist groups against and the , which opposed the popular uprisings.

6 Democracy and Tunisia Turkey's ruling AK Party denounced Saied's actions against Enahhda. Qatar took a more neutral position, calling on all sides to avoid escalation, despite the offices of its state-owned news channel being stormed by Tunisian police and its journalists expelled. The Qatari foreign ministry issued an official statement, saying that the country "hopes that Tunisian parties will adopt the path of dialogue to overcome the crisis."

Some countries such as the UAE and may instrumentally use Turkey's position to emphasise the Islamist secularist divide as the primary division in Tunisia and potentially describe the Tunisian crisis as a repetition of the Egyptian coup of General al-Sisi of 2013 when democratically-elected Islamist President Mohamed Morsi was deposed. In the name of their shared aversion to political Islam, Sisi may welcome and support the latest developments in Tunisia. Cairo could favour a possible transformation of the Tunisian political landscape if it moves toward an anti-Islamist and firm presidential system.

Both Russia's and Saudi Arabia's comments concentrate on preserving the security and stability of the country. So far, it appears that most international actors are taking a bystander position and waiting to see how the situation in Tunisia evolves. They are particularly interested in knowing the opinion of the powerful Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT), which has urged Kais Saied to form a new government, while the union body's latest statement also said Saied's "exceptional" measures responded to the people's demands. The UGTT declared earlier this month, "We call for speeding up the appointment of a head of government" and "a smaller and harmonious rescue government". It said any delay in forming a new government risked worsening the political vacuum in the north African country. It would also "make it difficult to emerge from the current social and economic crisis", said the UGTT.

Algerian state media reported that Saied called his counterpart, , likely to reassure Tunisia's most prominent neighbour that the shakeup will not endanger the country's stability. To maintain 's necessary support, Saied will need to reassure that his action will not destabilise Tunisia or the wider region.

The Reaction Inside Algeria

Tunisia's political elite's image has been tarnished by inaction and mismanagement. Tunisians called for a drastic change. "We had tremendous progress on the freedom front and the political front despite all the crises",

7 Democracy and Tunisia said Fadhel Kaboub, a Tunisian economics professor, "But what you have kept almost intact is the exact same economic development model that produced inequality, the debt crisis, the social economic exclusion that the population rebelled against."

Tahar Abdessalem, an expert on Tunisian politics, commented, "President Kais Saied says he doesn't have dictatorial aspirations. And he insists he will respect the freedoms and rights and work to ensure the people's well being. But this must translate into public policy and that's where we have a problem because public policy depends on institutions notably to address the financial, public health, economic and social urgencies. They demand a strong government which we don't have yet."

Saied's supporters say it feels like fresh hope after years of chaos and disappointment. Following the announcement, clashes between Saied and Mechichi supporters continued in the capital Tunis, even as the dismissed prime minister said he would concede his powers to Saied's next appointee. Imed Ayadi, an Ennahda member, said, "Saied is a new Sisi who wants to collect all authority for himself ...We will stand up to the coup against the revolution."

What's Next?

In meetings with civil-society groups, president Saied has pledged to protect Tunisian democracy. Though, he seems likely to try to reshape it in a way that grants him more power. On Monday 23 August, he announced he would be indefinitely extending the measures without giving further details. The next day the president justified extending his measures by attacking parliament, "The existing political institutions and the way they are operating are a danger to the state. ... parliament itself is a danger to the state."

It is too soon to tell whether he has the backing of the majority of Tunisians, protestors who took to the streets on 25 July after the president's actions praised his decision to dissolve Parliament. This reaction is reflecting their deep dissatisfaction with the current political deadlock.

Tunisia's Ambassador to the EU, Nabil Ammar, objects to the use of the word "concern", stating that the reality in Tunisia "is not difficult to understand" but that it is still essential for international leaders to take account of what is at risk. Ammar added, "Tunisia has all the means to continue to be this country

8 Democracy and Tunisia which establishes a democracy. But a democracy cannot be consolidated overnight. Neither in a year nor in two years. On other continents it has taken decades and decades. We must help Tunisia, which is knocking on the door of mature democracies. Established democracies, real democracies."

When he announced his intervention on 25 July, Saied withdrew the immunity of parliament members. Several of them, from parties that both support and oppose him, have since been detained or put under house arrest on numerous charges. Ennahda called in its statement for an end to what it called the "abuse and violation of constitutional rights" of citizens through detentions and travel restrictions.

To know whether Tunisia's democratic institutions are at risk, monitoring the potential political scenarios will be crucial. Will parliament members continue to be arrested? Will disputes between the protestors and police turn violent, and how will security services respond? When will Saied choose a new prime minister as he promised? Will there be further restrictions on the press?

Sources

Image 1: Fethih Belaid/AFP via Getty Images Image 2: Zohra Bensemra/Reuters Image 3: Chedly Ben Ibrahim NurPhoto via Getty Images

1. Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor, 19 August 2021 https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/4573/Tunisia:-Banning-judges-from-traveling-raises-fears-of-undermining-the-ju diciary

2. Anelise Borges & Euronews with AFP, 5 August 2021 https://www.euronews.com/2021/08/04/in-tunisia-the-wait-for-a-return-to-democracy-goes-on

3. The Economist, 29 July 2021: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/07/26/tunisias-democracy-totters-as-the-president-suspends -parliament

4. Atlantic Council, 28 July 2021: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/tunisia-was-the-only-democracy-to-blossom-from-the-arab-spring-n ow-its-a-mess/

5. Reuters, 25 August 2021 https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisian-party-concerned-presidents-extension-emergency-powers-2021-08-24/

6. The Guardian, 4 August 2021: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/tunisia-unions-call-for-president-to-form-new-government

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