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The Terrorist Threat

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The Terrorist Threat If you have issues viewing or accessing this file contact us at NCJRS.gov. TECHNOLOGY AGAINST THE FEDERAL EFFORT <I CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 102d Congress GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., California, Chairman TED STEVENS, Alaska, Vice Chairman Senate House EDWARD M. KENNEDY JOHN D. DINGELL Massachusetts Michigan ERNEST F. HOLLINGS CLARENCE E. MILLER South Carolina Ohio Cl.AIBORNE PELL DON SUNDQUIST Rhode Island Tennessee ORRIN G. HATCH AMO HOUGHTON Utah New York CHARLES E. GRASS LEY (Vacancy) Iowa JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council CHASE N. PETERSON, Chairman MICHEL T. HALBOUTY SALLY RIDE President Chairman of the Board & Director, California Space Institute University of Utah Chief Executive Officer University of California-San Diego Salt Lake City, Utah Michel T. Halbouty Energy Co. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Houston, Texas LaJolla, California JOSHUA LEDERBERG, Vice Chairman NEIL E. HARL JOSEPH E. ROSS Professor Professor Director Rockefeller University Department of Economics Congressional Research Service New York, New York Iowa State University The Library of Congress Ames, Iowa Washington, D.C. CHARLES A. BOWSHER JAMES C. HUNT JOHN F.M. SIMS Comptroller General of Chancellor Vice President, Marketing the United States Health Sciences Center Usibel/i Coal Mine, Inc. .' Washington, D.C. University of Tennessee Fairbanks, Alaska Memphis, Tennessee LEWIS M. BRANSCOMB HENRY KOFFLER MARINA v.N. WHITMAN Director of Science, Technology & President Vice President & Group Executive Public Policy Program University of Arizona Public Affairs Staffs Group Albert Pratt Public Service Professor Tucson, Arizona General Motors Corporation Harvard JFK School of Government Detroit, Michigan Cambridge, Massachusetts Director JOHN H. GIBBONS The Technology Assessment Board approves the release of this report. The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Board, OTA Advisory Council, or individual members thereof. /33 ?70 TECHNOLOGY AGAINST THE FEDERAL EFFORT 133890 U.S. Department of Justice National Institute of Justice This document has been reproduced exactly as received from the pers~n or organization originating it. Points of view or opinions stated In this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily repr~sent the official position or policies of the National Institute of Justice. F.urther reproduction outside of the NCJRS system requires permis­ sion of the ~ owner. CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT • Recommended Citation: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Technology Against Terrorism: The Federal Effort, OTA-ISC-481 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, July 1991). For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402-9325 (order form can be found in the back of this report) /I Foreword The United States has been a prime target of international terrorism for at least two decades. In the 1980s, several terrorist attacks had a particularly powerful effect in mobilizing public opinion and government action. These were the bombings of the U.S. Embassy and of the U.S. Marine Barracks in Beirut in 1983, and the destruction of Pan American Flight 103 over l.ockerbie, Scotland in 1989. The Federal Government reacted in both cases by devoting more attention and resources to developing strategies and tools to defend U.S. lives and interests against such outrages. Unless underlying causes are eliminated, terrorist attacks will continue. Since they may change in type and scope, the United States must be prepared to deal with a wide range of eventualities. The widespread availability of sophisticated weapons makes the challenge of counterterrorism all the more difficult. In 1989, the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs; the Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Narcotics, and International Operations of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations; and the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, together with its Subcommittee on Aviation, requested the Office of Technology Assessment to investigate the status of research on technological means to protect ourselves against terrorist threats. A later endorsement of the study was received from the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. This report is the first of two in response to these requests. A classified version was transmitted to Congress on September 24, 1990, and an unclassified summary was released to the public separately on February 26, 1991. It deals with the Federal research and development effort in countering terrorism, and with the state of attempts to use technology to aid in detecting and preventing attempts to introduce explosives aboard aircraft. A r~view of the relevant R&D programs in many agencies is provided. The second report of this study will be released in late summer 1991. The help and cooperation of many scientists and officials from the Departments of Defense, Energy, Justice, State, Transportation, and Treasury, and the Intelligence Commu­ nity are gratefully acknowledged. ~HN~(~" Director Iii The Use of Technology in Countering Terrorism Advisory Panel Marvin Goldberger, Chair Director, Institute for Advanced Study Princeton, New Jersey Peter F. Bahnsen Brian Jenkins Executive Vice President Managing Director MLI International, Ltd. Kroll Associates Terry Bearce Michael 1(. Johns Program Manager on Low Intensity President Conflict Johns & Bhatia Los Alamos National Laboratory Engineering Consultants, Ltd. Homer Boynton Donald 1(err Managing Director for Security President American Airlines EG&G,Inc. L. Paul Bremer Joseph Krofcheck Managing Director President Kissinger Associates Yarrow Associates Chris Chicles Robert 1(uppennan C.H. Chicles & Associates Senior Advisor Center for Strategic and International Studies Arthur Donahue President Richard Porter Softworld Marketing, Inc. Aerospace Services International, Inc. Lee Grodzins Billie H. Vincent Department of Physics Aerospace Services International, Inc. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Stanley Wiener Chris Hatcher Professor of Internal Medicine Department of Psychiatry University of lllinois, Chicag!) University of California, San Francisco Joshua Lederberg (ex officio) Carolyn Imamura Rockefeller University Pacific Basin Development Council Vice Chairman, Technology Assessment AdvisOiY Council Wilfred A. Jackson Airport Operators Council International Jim Jacobs Director, Nuclear Security Systems Sandia National Laboratory NOTE: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the advisory panel members. The panel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA asswnes full responsibility for the report and the accuracy of its contents. Iv The Use of Technology in Countering Terrorism OTA Project Staff Lionel S. Johns, Assistant Director, OTA Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Alan Shaw, International Security and Commerce Program Manager Anthony Fainberg, Project Director Michael B. Callaham Kevin Dopart1 Deborah L. Kyle2 Russell L. Maxwe1l3 Edith Page4 Peter H. RoseS . Administrative Staff Jackie Boykin Louise Staley Donna Reynolds Contractor Yonah Alexander IOn assignment from OTA's Science, Education, and Transportation Program. 2Department of Commerce Science and Teclmology Fellow, 1989-90. 30n assignment from Sandia National Laboratories. 40n assignment from OTA's Science, Education, and Transportation Program. sAAAS Fellow, 1989-90. v Contents Page Chapter 1. Summary. 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 1 PRINCIPAL FINDINGS ..................................................................... 4 Finding 1 ................................ ,................................................ 4 Finding 2 .............................................................. ".................. 5 Finding 3 ................................................................................. 7 Finding 4 ................................................................................. 8 Finding 5 ................................................................................. 10 STATE OF EXPLOSIVES DETECTOR DEVELOPMENT. 11 Chapter 2. Introduction ....................................................................... 13 THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY IN COUNTERING TERRORISM. 13 OUTLINE OF THIS STUDY. 13 Chapter 3. The Terrorist Threat ........................... 15 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 15 A DEFINITIONAL FOCUS. 15 TERRORISM: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE .............................................. 17 Historical Origins . 17 Contemporary Terrorism . 17 Two Decades of Terrorism: A Statistical Overview........................................... 19 Terrorism in the Future ......................... 19 THE THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES ................................................... 23 Domestic Terrorism . 23 International Terrorism ...... .. 24 OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ...................................................... 28 Chapter 4. Research and Development. .. .. .. .. ... 31 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 31 Explosives Detection ..................................................................... : . 31 Chemical and Biological Agents . 32 Physical Protection .......................................................................
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