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Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1948

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Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1948 FEDERAL RESER BU NOVEMBER 1948 BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM WASHINGTON Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis EDITORIAL COMMITTEE ELLIOTT THURSTON WOODLIEF THOMAS WINFIELD W. RIEFLER The Federal Reserve BULLETIN is issued monthly under the direction of the staff editorial committee. This committee is responsible for interpretations and opinions expressed, except in official statements and signed articles. CONTENTS PAGE Expenditures and Incomes in the Postwar Period. 1329-1338 The Significance of Membership in the Federal Reserve System. 1339-1343 Latin America's Postwar Inflation and Balance of Payments Problems, by David L. Grove and Gerald M. Alter. 1344-1354 United States Government Manual. 1354 Financial Position and Buying Plans of Consumers, July 1948. 1355-1359 Member Bank Earnings, First Half of 1948. 1360-1363 Current Events and Announcements. 1363 Law Department—Consumer Instalment Credit. 1364-1368 National Summary of Business Conditions. 1369-1370 Financial, Industrial, Commercial Statistics, U. S. (See p. 1371 for list of tables) 1371-1429 International Financial Statistics (See p. 1431 for list of tables) . 1431-1449 Board of Governors and Start; Open Market Committee and Staff; Federal Advisory Council . 1450 Senior Officers of Federal Reserve Banks; Managing Officers of Branches. 1451 Federal Reserve Publications.. 1452-1453 Map of Federal Reserve Districts. 1454 Subscription Price of BULLETIN A copy of the Federal Reserve BULLETIN is sent to each member bank without charge. The subscription price in the United States and its possessions, Bolivia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Republic of Honduras, Mexico, Newfoundland (in- cluding Labrador), Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, El Salvador, Uruguay, and Venezuela is $2.00 per annum or 20 cents per copy; elsewhere, $2.60 per annum or 25 cents per copy. Group sub- scriptions in the United States for 10 or more copies to one address, 15 cents per copy per month, or $1.50 for 12 months. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 34 November 1948 NUMBER 11 EXPENDITURES AND INCOMES IN THE POSTWAR PERIOD Expenditures and incomes have expanded output. There have been intervals when further in the third quarter, continuing the demand seemed to slacken and when there generally upward movement which has were expectations of imminent general de- characterized the war and postwar period. clines in employment and income. How- Gross national product and national income ever, the general situation has continued ex- have reached new peaks. At a 256 billion pansive and resources released by slowing dollar annual rate in the third quarter, gross down of demand for some products have national product was 30 per cent above the been absorbed in other uses. Some shortages postwar transition low reached in the first have persisted, especially in the field of quarter of 1946. metals and metal products. The postwar increase in national product The greatest increases in output, expen- has reflected sharp advances in prices and ditures, and prices occurred between early costs combined with more moderate ex- 1946 and the first quarter of 1947. This pansion of physical production. For exam- period witnessed rapid absorption into peace- ple, the index of industrial production in the time production of manpower and equip- third quarter of 1948 was one-fifth higher ment resources earlier absorbed in waging of than in the first quarter of 1946, while con- war. It also witnessed spectacular price sumer and wholesale prices had advanced increases after elimination of controls. In by one-third and one-half respectively. Gains view of the high incomes and large holdings in real output since early 1947, by which of liquid assets and the relatively smaller sup- time practically full peacetime employment ply of goods and services, controls had kept had been reached, have generally been lim- prices well below free market levels until ited by the amounts of materials and plant mid-1946. capacity available and by the necessarily Inflationary tendencies have continued to slow growth of the labor force. persist during the greater part of the period Although inflationary tendencies have since the first quarter of 1947. The magni- featured the last two and one-half years, ex- tude of the earlier increases in prices has not pansive pressures have not consistently domi- been equaled, however, and output and em- nated all fronts, nor has the course of prices ployment have increased more moderately, and production been invariably upwards. mainly because of limitations of supply Indeed, marked readjustments have taken rather than lack of demand. In spite of place in some prices and in some lines of rising prices and incomes, there has been NOVEMBER 1948 1329 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis EXPENDITURES AND INCOMES IN THE POSTWAR PERIOD since early 1947 a noticeable degree of cau- agricultural employment, a rise of 75 per cent tion on the part of businessmen and investors in the physical volume of manufacturing and and some restraint on the part of consumers mineral production, a gain of more than a in using their liquid assets and spending GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT their current incomes. In this connection DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ESTIMATES, ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION there is little evidence of excessive over-all inventory accumulation or extensive security market speculation, both of which tend to occur in the boom phase of the business cycle. On the other hand, real estate prices have attained relatively high levels, and urban mortgage debt has mounted at an exception- ally rapid rate. Major expansive factors in the current economic situation are the increasing Fed- eral Government expenditures arising out of the foreign aid and defense programs and the further expansion of spendable income resulting from the reduction in taxes and the continuing trend of wage increases. Busi- fourth in farm production, and a rise in con- ness investment expenditures are sustained sumer prices of about 75 per cent. Not in heavy volume by these factors, and in only has total national product increased turn have important expansive effects. greatly, but significant shifts in its composi- Prices have been leveling off or declining tion also have taken place in recent years as in recent months, following sharp increases compared with the war and prewar periods, from February 1948 until midsummer. as is shown in the table. Price movements this year have been more The decline in the total national product diverse than in the two preceding years. immediately after the end of the war resulted Farm products and foods are currently lower from the drastic curtailment of Federal mili- than at the first of this year, owing largely tary expenditures. By the first quarter of to bumper crops, while metals and their 1946 such expenditures were less than one- products are far higher. Average consumer third their wartime peak. Since then, out- prices, which advanced steadily from March standing in its effects on the economy has until August, have since declined slightly, been the expansion of expenditures for con- primarily as a result of declines in meat sumer and producer durable goods, for con- prices. struction, and for food. The further reduc- tion in Federal Government expenditures GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT for goods and services has been more than By the third quarter of 1948 gross na- offset by the rise in State and local govern- tional product had reached a level almost ment expenditures. Net foreign investment three times that in 1939. The higher level was lower in the third quarter of 1948 than reflects an increase since 1939 of about 15 in the first quarter of 1946, after increasing million persons, or 50 per cent, in total non- sharply to a peak in the second quarter of 1330 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis EXPENDITURES AND INCOMES IN THE POSTWAR PERIOD GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR SELECTED PERIODS chart shows the trend of selected expendi- [Percentage of total by types of expenditures] ture groups. 1948, 1946, third first PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Type of expenditure quar- quar- 1944 1939 1929 ter ter Expenditures for producers' durable equip- Government purchases of goods ment, new private construction (including end services 14.7 17.9 45.5 14.4 8.2 Federal 8.7 13.4 41.9 5.7 1.3 residential), and the accumulation of inven- 6.9 State and local 6.1 4.6 3.5 8.7 tories (both farm and nonfarm) were being Cross private domestic invest- ment 15.2 10.9 3.0 10.0 15.2 made at the annual rate of 39 billion dollars New construction 5.8 3.7 1.1 4.4 7.5 Producers' durable equip- ment 8.4 4.5 2.5 5.1 6.2 in the third quarter of 1948. This amount Change in farm and non- farm inventories 1.1 2.7 -.6 .5 1.5 is more than four times that in 1939. Of Net foreign investment .3 1.5 -1.0 1.0 .7 total national product in the third quarter Personal consumption ex- of 1948, 15 per cent was devoted to such penditures 69.8 69.8 52.5 74.6 75.9 Durable goods 9.2 6.2 3.2 7.4 9.0 private investment as compared with 10 per Nondurable goods 40.2 42.2 31.8 39.0 36.4 Services 20.3 21.3 17.5 28.2 30.5 cent in 1939. Gross national product, total: Per cent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 EXPENDITURES FOR SELECTED COMPONENTS Billions of dollars 1255.9 U96.1 212.2 90.4 103.8 OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT .DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ESTIMATES, ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION 1 Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates.
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