THE STATE OF FOOD D AGI CULTURE ME BER NATIONS of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Australia Ethiopia Nicaragua Austria Finland Norway Belgium France Pakistan Bolivia Greece Panama Brazil Guatemala Paraguay Burma Haiti Peru Canada Honduras Philippine Republic Ceylon Hungary Poland Chile Iceland Portugal China India Siam Colombia Iraq Switzerland Costa Rica Ireland Syria Cuba Italy Turkey Czechoslovakia Lebanon Union of South Africa Denmark Liberia United Kingdom Dominican Republic Luxemburg United States of America Ecuador Mexico Uruguay Egypt Netherlands Venezuela El Salvador New Zea/and Yugoslavia Director-Genetai: NORRIS E. DODD Deputy Director -General: SIR HERBERT BROADLEY TF:r STATE OF FOOD !D AGRICULTURE-1943 A Survey of World Conditions and Prospects FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Washington, D. C., U.S.A. September 1948 FOREWORD HE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE, 1948 has been prepared at the request of member governments as a basic document for the intergovernmental consultations on plans and programs at the Fourth Session of the FAO Conference in November; but it is also addressed to the general public. The world still suffers from a shortage of food, fibers, and forest products, even if the situation may become less acute in the current year.Hence, itis important to ascertain to what extent governments have programs which will put an end to scarcities within a reasonable time and go on to provide a more adequate level of supplies, par- ticularly in the low-incorne countries. From the information available to FAO, I am convinced of two things: first, much more is being done to expand production around the world than is generally realized (and another Conference document, National Pro g- ress in Food and Agriculture Programs, will illustrate this); second, what is being done, although so noteworthy, isfar from sufficient to make any significant improvement upon the low living standards of most peoples. In my belief, the difficulties which stand in the way of a really rapid expansion of production should be examined more energetically by governments, and decisions should be taken which will enlarge the programs and facilitate their speedier execution. There have been enough generalizations; what is now needed is practical action. The present Report, in spite of limitations and imperfections due to inadequate data, delineates the central issues clearly enough to enable governments to consult together and decide what practical steps should be taken next. With this Report as an over-all guide it is my hope to see action initiated or intensified in a wide variety of fields to expand production, improve national and international distribution, and raise living standards throughout the world. Director-General CONTENTS PART I. WORLD REVIEW I.INTRODUCTION 1 THE CURRENT SITUATION 4 Consumption 4. Production-9.Trendof Prices-10.International Trade-13. THE NEXT THREE YEARS 18 The Outlook for 1948/49-18. Later Trends-19. CONSUMPTION GOALS ?/. THE BATTLE FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 94 Soil Erosion-24. Technical Efficiency-25. Cultivating New Land-27 Reduction of Waste--29. Economic Factors30. Social Factors-30. Wider Horizons-31. General Considerations-32. ORIENTATION OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE 33 NF,XT STEPS 35 Special Projects-35. Regional Formulation of Plans and Programs-36 Review of International Trade-36. Tools for World Review-37. PARTI. PROBLEMS OF THE REGIONS S.LOWER-INCOME, DENSELY POPULATED REGIONS 41 The Far East 41 Production and Trade-42; China; India and Pakistan; The Five Food Exporters-Burma, Indo-China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Siam; Food- importing Countries (Ceylon, Malaya, Japan, and Korea). Consumption-48. Increasing Supplies-50.Nutritional Policy-53. More General Prob- lems-54. Forestry and FOreg Products-54. The Near East 56 Production and Trade-57. Consumption Levels-60. Plans and Programs -61. Improving Nutrition-62, Forestry and Forest Products-62. LOWER-INCOME, SPARSELY POPULATED REGIONS 64 Latin America 64 Production and Trade-64; General; Selected Countries. Consumption Lev- els-69. Increasing Supplies--72. Improving Nutrition-76. Forestry and Forest Products-77. Africa 79 Production-80; Ftench North Africa; French West Africa; French Equa- torial Africa and the Cameroons ;Liberia;British West Africa; Belgian Congo ad Portuguese Territories:BritishEast Africa; Nyasaland and Noithern and Southern Rhodesia; Union of South Africa; Madagascar, Mauritius, and Reunic.m. Foreign Trade-86. Consumption and Nutrition -88. Increasing Supplies--90. FareStry and Forest Products--91. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 93 Postwar Recovery in Soviet Agriculture-93. The 1947 Harvest Results-93 1948 Production and Consumption Prospects-94. The 1950 Agricultural Targets-95. Forestry and Forest Products-96. HIGHER-INCOME, DENSELY POPULATED REGIONS 98 Europe 98 Production-99. International Trade-100. Consumption-101. Programs for the Future-109; Production; International Trade; Consumption. For- estry and Forest Products-115. HIGHER-INCOME, SPARSELY POPULATED REGIONS 120 The United States of America, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand 120 Production and Trade-121; UnitedStatesof America;Canada, Aus- tralia, and New Zealand. Consumption-129. Plans and Programs-131; United States of America; Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Conclu- sions-134.Forestry and ForestProductsinCanada andthe United States-135. Forestry and Forest Products in Oceania-137. PART III. COMMODITY SITUATIONS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS-FOOD 141 Cereals 141 Review of 1947/48-141. 1948/49 Position-143. Future Outlook-144 Rice 149 Current Situation-149. Future Outlook-150. Fats and Oils 152 Production and Trade-152. 1948/49 Supply Prospects-154. Future Out- look-155. Sugar 158 Current Situation-158. Future Outlook-160. Livestock Products 161 Current Situation-161. Future Outlook-164. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS-FIBERS 166 Recent Trends-168.Production Outlook-168;Cotton;Wool;Silk; Flax and Hemp; Jute ;Hard Fibers ;Rayon. Changes in Production Pat- tern-169. World Consumption and Trade-170. 1948/49 World Trade Outlook-173. Long-Term Outlook-175. FISHERIES PRODUCTS 178 Recent Developments by Regions-178; Europe; North America; Latin America;Africa;Oceania;FarEast.World-wide Trade Trends-182. Whaling-184. Outlook-184. FOREST PRODUCTS 186 Sawn Lumber-187; Europe, including U.S.S.R. and Near East; United States and Canada; Other Regions. Pulp and Paper-194. Pitprops-196. Railway Sleepers-197. Plywood-197. Fiberboards-197. PART IV.TOOLS FOR PRODUCTION FERTILIZERS 201 Nitrogen-201; Europe; North and South America;Asia and Africa; Oceania. Phosphates-203. Potash-204. FARM MACHINERY AND DRAFT POWER 205 Production and Overseas Trade in Farm Equipment-206. Spare Parts for Machinery Already on Farms-208. Servicing Problems-208. Effective Use in Previously Unmechanized Areas-209. Future Prospects209. For- estry Equipment-210. APPENDIX CONSTRUCTION OF AN INDEX OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 212 vi iRT I WORLD REVIEW Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION is now three years siace the termination of hostilities, and three years in October Irsince the establishment of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Na- tions.These have been years of world-wide shortages, especially of agric.ultural and forestry products, on a scale as unparalleled as it was unforeseen. From 1945 until mid- 1947 the crisis was generally expected to be over within a few months or after the next harvest; it was called a "short-term" crisis.Only during the past twelve months have governments come to regard it as something more persistent. Perhaps the major error lay in an underestimation of the degree and extent of war damage in Europe and Asia.Destruction was more widespread and far-reaching than in World War I.Not only did agricultural production in these continents decline, re- sulting in reduced consumption levels and virtual elimination of Asia's food exports, but the dislocation of manufacturing industry left Europe and Japan with little to export and farmers in Asia and other areas with few incentive goods from the customers needing the food.In particular, che collapse of Germany and japan and their present inability to export or import has left an economic vacuum which gravely affects countries with which they had had close commercial relationships.Thus, not ordy were the deficit coun- tries more deficit, but many of their former suppliers were no longer in the export business. Just as the loss and deterioration of capital have been greater than at first realized, so also has been the effort needed for reconstruction.Full employment is found almost 'everywherein the recovering countries of Europe and the Far East, in the developing countries of Latin America, and in the expanding countries such as the United States of America and Canada.Large money incomes are being generated, but the output of con- sumption goods is quite inadequate to match the level of consumer purchasing power. The inflationary situation, aggravated in many cases by prernature removal of controls, has spread around the world.Food shortage itself makes a major contributioa to the inflation since consumer demand for fooci is stronger than for other goods and therefore, in the absence of controls, food prices press upward, pushing the cost of living up too, with consequential upward pressure on wages.The inflation is now seen to be more persistent and protracted than was anticipated, and the early attempts to control it in some countries are breaking down. A third phenomenon arising out of the war is a geographic shift of wealth.While Europe, Asia, and in some respects Africa each suffered a setback in World War II, the countries of the Western Hemisphere, particularly the United States, have increased their output and their equipment for production.This shift, so especially marked in respect of food and industrial equipment, may be temporary only in part; to the extent thatit proves permanent it creates special payments difficulties.For unless, when Europe and Asia once again have products to offer, the Western Hemisphere is willing to import on a large enough scale to rectify the balance of payments, that problem, like the food problem, may prove to be more persistent than temporary.