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Managing the Treasury Yield Curve in the 1940S

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Managing the Treasury Yield Curve in the 1940S Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports Managing the Treasury Yield Curve in the 1940s Kenneth Garbade Staff Report No. 913 February 2020 This paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interested readers solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author. Managing the Treasury Yield Curve in the 1940s Kenneth Garbade Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 913 February 2020 JEL classification: G28, H63, N22 Abstract This paper examines the efforts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to first control, and later decontrol, the level and shape of the Treasury yield curve in the 1940s. The paper begins with a brief review of monetary policy in 1938 and a description of the period between September 1939 and December 1941, when the idea of maintaining a fixed yield curve first appeared. It then discusses the financing of U.S. participation in World War II and the experience with maintaining a fixed curve. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the FOMC regained control of monetary policy in the second half of the 1940s. The Committee’s efforts offer two lessons in yield curve management: (1) the shape of the curve cannot be fixed independently of the volatility of interest rates and debt management policies, and (2) large-scale open market operations may be required in the course of refixing, from time to time, the shape of the yield curve. Key words: debt management, open market operations, yield curve management _________________ Garbade: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (email: [email protected]). The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. To view the authors’ disclosure statements, visit https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr913.html. In the first half of the 1940s, during World War II, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sought to directly manage the level and shape of the Treasury yield curve. Following the end of hostilities it struggled to withdraw from that activity. The Committee’s efforts offer two lessons in yield curve management: 1. The shape of the yield curve cannot be fixed independently of the volatility of interest rates and debt management policies. During World War II the Committee sought to maintain a fixed, positively sloped curve. The policy left long-term bonds with the risk characteristics of short-term debt but a yield more than 200 basis points higher. At the same time, the Treasury pursued a policy of issuing across the curve, from 13-week bills to 25-year bonds. Faced with investor preferences for the higher yielding, but hardly more risky, bonds, the System Open Market Account had to absorb a substantial quantity of bills. A flatter curve and/or a less rigid interest rate policy might have required less aggressive interventions. 2. Large-scale open market operations may be required in the course of refixing, from time to time, the shape of the yield curve. After 1946, Federal Reserve officials pursued a program of gradual relaxation of the wartime regime, beginning with the elimination of the pegged rate for 13-week bills, continuing with incremental increases in the ceiling rate on 1-year certificates of indebtedness,1 and then moving further out the curve to notes, with the ultimate goal of a free market for all Treasury debt. Following the elimination of the pegged bill rate in 1947, investors began to move their portfolios into shorter-term debt. The result was a massive shift in the composition of the Open 1 A certificate of indebtedness was a coupon-bearing security with not more than one year to maturity. 1 Market Account as the Account bought bonds and sold bills to accommodate the changing maturity preferences of private investors. This paper examines the efforts of the FOMC to first control, and later decontrol, the level and shape of the Treasury yield curve in the 1940s. We begin with a brief review of monetary policy in 1938 and a description of the period between September 1939 and December 1941, when the idea of maintaining a fixed yield curve first appeared. Section 3 discusses the financing of U.S. participation in World War II. Section 4 examines the experience with maintaining a fixed yield curve. Section 5 concludes with a discussion of how the FOMC regained control of monetary policy in the second half of the 1940s. 1. Monetary Policy in 1938 By the late 1930s, bank reserves were vastly in excess of requirements. At the end of 1938, member banks held $8.8 billion in reserves; they were required to hold $5.5 billion.2 The plenitude of reserves was not a result of System open market operations – the Open Market Account amounted to only $2.6 billion – and it was not a result of discount window loans – advances to member banks amounted to only about $10 million on a daily average basis. The primary source of reserves was $11.8 billion of gold certificates held by Federal Reserve Banks – the result of a prolonged inflow of gold since 1934.3 The Fed’s diminished credibility as a lender of last resort left banks reluctant to use all of the available reserves to expand their loan portfolios. The large volume of excess reserves kept short-term interest rates near zero. Longer- term rates were left to find their own market-clearing levels. At the end of 1938, 13-week bills 2 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1943, p. 372). 3 The inflow was triggered by the January 1934 revaluation of gold from $20.67 to $35 per ounce (Garbade, 2012, pp. 237-245) and was bolstered with flight capital attributable to the rise of Hitler. 2 yielded 1 basis point, intermediate-term notes yielded 67 basis points, and long-term bonds yielded 2½ percent. The FOMC made no attempt to manage either the level of reserves or the level of interest rates. Open market operations were limited to maintaining an “orderly market” for Treasury securities and typically involved maturity switches rather than outright purchases or sales.4 When Treasury yields fell sharply following President Roosevelt’s announcement of new fiscal and monetary initiatives in mid-April 1938,5 the Fed cushioned the fall by selling $108 million of bonds and buying a comparable quantity of bills and notes “with a view to preventing a disorderly market.” 6 When Treasury yields rose following Hitler’s September 1938 demand that Germany be allowed to annex the Sudetenland, the Federal Reserve intervened by purchasing $45 million of bonds and selling $14 million of bills and $31 million of notes.7 The 1938 annual report of the Board of Governors stated that, “In recent years the bond market has become a much more important segment of the open money market, and banks, particularly, money-market banks, to an increasing extent use their bond portfolios as a means of adjusting their cash position to meet demands made upon them. … Since prices of long-term bonds are subject to wider fluctuations than those of short-term obligations, the increased importance of 4 In December 1936, the executive committee of the Federal Open Market Committee concluded that “in recent years the government security market had become so large a part of the money market that the [System’s] general responsibility for the money market involves some measure of responsibility for avoiding disorderly conditions in the government security market, either on the up side or the down side.” Minutes of the Executive Committee of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 21, 1936, p. 4. Emphasis added. 5 Between April 9 and April 23, bill yields fell from 14 basis points to 5 basis points, note yields fell from 1.07 percent to 0.82 percent, and bond yields fell from 2.68 percent to 2.58 percent. Federal Reserve Bulletin, May 1938, p. 390, and December 1938, p. 1046. 6 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 21, 1938, p. 3, and Federal Reserve Bulletin, May 1938, p. 373. 7 Federal Reserve Bulletin, November 1938, p. 981. 3 bonds as a medium of investment for idle bank funds makes the maintenance of stable conditions in the bond market an important concern.” 8 2. The Coming of War World War II began on Friday, September 1, 1939, when German troops crossed into Poland. Combat operations expanded to western Europe the following May. By mid-year Germany had defeated France and Belgium and a British expeditionary force had been forced to withdraw from the continent. The fall of France and the possibility of British capitulation raised the prospect that the United States might become isolated, with limited access to foreign markets. Officials concluded that American security interests were best served by keeping Britain in the fight against Germany. In a speech on October 30, 1940, Roosevelt promised “every assistance short of war.” Britain promptly placed orders for large quantities of planes, artillery, tanks, and other heavy weapons, even though it lacked the financial resources to pay. In January 1941, Roosevelt proposed the Lend-Lease program; Congress passed enabling legislation in March.9 The U.S. would henceforth finance whatever Britain required but could not provide on its own. During its June 1941 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee discussed a memorandum from Emanuel Goldenweiser, director of the Division of Research and Statistics, on methods of Treasury finance.
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