The Indian National Interest Review

PragatiNovember 2013 www.nationalinterest.in

The other Commonwealth

Non Relevant Indians Fight for the front line The enemy as an enigma

Can 4you forecast a flood? Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review! EU-India Free Trade Agreement brooks no delay PERSPECTIVE 38 RIDING THE RUPEE TIGER Have we tamed the animal that is the rupee-dollar 4 NON RELEVANT INDIANS exchange rate? Why should an NRI become the least relevant of all Deepak Shenoy Indians? Kaushik Mitra 41 CAN YOU FORECAST A FLOOD? India and the US can look into advanced methods for flood 7 FIGHT FOR THE FRONT LINE and flash flood predictions Serving your nation by serving in combat is an honour. Not Mathew Garcia allowing half the Indians to do so is depressing Priya Ravichandran 45 SOLAR POWER & ENERGY SECURITY 10 EU-INDIA FREE TRADE Gujarat’s experience suggests that there is considerable merit AGREEMENT BROOKS NO DELAY in solar energy initiatives being integrated with overall The government should push for the EU-India FTA with energy policy rather than as stand-alone measures the same purposiveness it displayed on the civil nuclear Mukul Asher, TS Gopi Rethinaraj and Murali agreement with the US and in FDI in multi-brand retail Ramakrishnan Vivek Sengupta

13 LABOUR MARKET REFORMS IN BOOKS INDIA 50 RIDDLE OF THE LABYRINTH Among India’s still-born second generation reforms, labour Margalit Fox reveals the life & struggles of the people market reforms is important and politically difficult behind the decipherment of Linear B, an unknown Gulzar Natarajan language in an unknown script Jayakrishnan Nair 22 THE GOOD AND BAD OF POLITICAL DONATIONS 55 LETHAL IDEAS AND INSURGENT In a healthy democracy, citizens’ involvement in the MEMORY political process should not end at voting alone A review of Neville Bolt’s The Violent Image Salil Bijur Mark Safranski

26 LEVELLING DEMOCRACY HIGHLIGHTS To safeguard democracy, we must separate governance from the popular will 16 The other Ravikiran Rao Commonwealth 29 LOBBYING: IS IT BETTER TO India should foster links with the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP) to give it an even LEGALISE THAN CRIMINALISE? more diverse, democratic and Asian identity The way to handle lobbying is to either legalise it or reduce Constantino Xavier the discretionary power that the ministry holds over the contracts and let the markets prevail Renu Pokharna 19 India’s bridge to the 32 A CIVIL SERVANT WONDERS NOW Lusophone world The biggest governance challenge for a new government will India should create the Goa Forum to institutionalise its be re-creating the legitimate space for executive action growing economic and cultural interactions with its Balaram Lusophone partners Loro Horta IN DEPTH 35 THE ENEMY AS AN ENIGMA The knowledge gap about the Indian Mujahideen continues to facilitate its violent campaign and near unassailability Bibhu Prasad Routray

2 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review! CONTRIBUTORS Constantino Xavier Constantino Xavier is a Portuguese Ph.D. candidate at Bibhu Prasad Routray the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Bibhu Prasad Routray served as a Deputy Director in Studies, Johns Hopkins University, in Washington DC the National Security Council Secretariat, New Delhi Ravikiran S Rao Balaram Ravikiran S Rao blogs at The Examined Life The author is a civil servant. The name has been changed Priya Ravichandran Priya Ravichandran is Programme Manager for the Mark Safranski Mark Safranski is a Senior Analyst at Wikistrat, LLC GCPP programme at the Takshashila Institution and is the publisher of a national security and strategy Gulzar Natarajan blog, zenpundit.com Gulzar Natarajan is a civil servant

Jayakrishnan Nair Published by the Takshashila Institution, an independent Jayakrishnan Nair blogs at Varnam think tank on India’s strategic affairs. Mukul Asher Mukul Asher is Professorial Fellow, Lee Kuan Yew Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under the School of Public Policy, Singapore and Councillor, Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 India License. Takhshashila Institution Advisory Panel TS Gopi Rethinaraj Mukul G Asher TS Gopi Rethiniraj is a faculty member at the Lee Sameer Jain Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore Amey V Laud Mahew Garcia V Anantha Nageswaran Matthew Garcia is a hydrologist and a doctoral student Ram Narayanan in forestry at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Sameer Wagle USA Editors Murali Ramakrishnan Nitin Pai Murali Ramakrishnan is a graduate student at Lee Sushant K Singh Kuan Yew School of public policy, Singapore Kaushik Mitra Assistant Editor Kaushik Mitra is a marketing consultant who blogs at Sarah Farooqui daddysan.wordpress.com and tweets @daddy_san Vivek Sengupta Acknowledgements Vivek Sengupta is Founder and Chief Executive of the danishdynamite consulting firm Moving Finger Communications Contact Renu Pokharna [email protected] Renu Pokharna runs Dharna2.0 in Ahmedabad pragati.nationalinterest.in Deepak Shenoy Deepak Shenoy writes at capitalmind.in about the Neither Pragati nor The Indian National Interest website Indian Markets and Money, and runs MarketVision are affiliated with any political party or platform. The views expressed in this publication are personal Loro Horta Loro Horta is a diplomat based in Ashgabat, opinions of the contributors and not those of their Turkmenistan. He was an advisor to the Timor-Leste employers or of Pragati. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the United Nations national project manager for Security Sector Reform in We accept letters and unsolicited manuscripts. Timor-Leste Community Edition Salil Bijur Pragati (ISSN 0973-8460) is available for free Salil Bijur is a civil servant from the Indian Revenue download at pragati.nationalinterest.in This edition may Service based in Bangalore be freely distributed (in its complete form) through both electronic and non-electronic means. You are encouraged to share your copy with your local community

3 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review! PERSPECTIVE

KAUSHIK MITRA Kaushik Mitra is a marketing consultant who blogs at daddysan.wordpress.com and tweets @daddy_san. Non Relevant Indians Why should an NRI become the least relevant of all Indians?

VinothChandar

Diaspora: the movement, migration, or platforms of choice for keeping abreast scaering of a people away from an of events in the Homeland. established or ancestral homeland. Unfortunately, it’s also on these We disperse, float away, sele in new platforms I have encountered a general lands – mostly by design but sometimes sense of derision towards my kind – the by default – and we take root. I am one NRIs or Non-Resident Indians. such example. I did not move by choice, An NRI is a citizen of India, holding an the impetus came from a set of unique Indian passport but temporarily living circumstances that pushed me outside India for more than six months. westwards. Over five years, I have built If online chaer is to be believed, an NRI a life and career here. It’s home. At the also becomes the least relevant of all same time, I have found it difficult to Indians when his/her plane departs. It’s disconnect from events in India. There’s this aitude I personally find appalling. a natural affinity, or perhaps a The derision towards NRIs exists at continuing curiosity, that goes beyond different levels – ranging from simply wanting to stay in touch with discounted opinions to a resistance to relatives and family. Twier and allowing them to vote in general Facebook have largely been the elections. The most common justification

4 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review! for this hostility is that NRIs having left verification and then allow postal their homelands for greener pastures ballots? I sincerely hope the procedure should no longer have a say in its to vote for NRIs is simplified in the near welfare. future. Well, I respectfully disagree. There are 22 million Indians living However, most abroad, permanently or otherwise. Of importantly, we are still these, 10 million are technically NRIs. Assuming 70 percent are adults over 18, tied to India, no matter that’s a voting bloc of 7 million. That’s how we change our around the number of votes the NCP and DMK individually garnered in the externalities, appearance 2009 General Elections; it’s more than or environment. the votes the Shiv Sena obtained. It’s not enough to be a margin of victory, but it’s We are everywhere; literally – as of enough to make a difference. The right 2012 there were 17 Indians in North to representation was denied to NRIs Korea. We are also an enterprising lot – until as late as 2010 when the we are in 205 countries and in many Representation of the People cases the transition to a new land hasn’t Amendment stated that voting is a been peaceful and welcoming. For fundamental right for an Indian citizen example, the first Indians in the United and allowed them to vote in General States weren’t students pursuing higher and State elections – “in case they studies; they were Punjabis who made happen to be in their constituency at the their way to the West Coast, looking for time of polls”. The reasons for imposing agrarian work in California’s fields. this condition aren’t specified. This is a Subsequent Indians entering the US had huge barrier to voting because traveling to put up with racially biased policies back to India is expensive and the and curtailed rights. We have come a window for voting too narrow to long way since then. We are the face of guarantee the timely arrival and India outside it. It’s not just the departure of millions of Indians. It’s also Presidential junkets, United Nations reminiscent of our mythological fables appearances by the Prime Minister or in which you had to perform a supreme lobby groups that are instrumental in personal sacrifice to obtain the largesse shaping India’s image and identity of the gods. overseas – it’s also us. In our own way, India has established protocols for we are the gateway everyday to India absentee ballots if you are serving for millions of international faces, some overseas in the armed forces or away of who actively invest in the country. from your registered constituency for If it’s a question of having a stake in election duty. Why can’t NRIs be India’s development, the financial allowed to register and vote at their contribution of NRIs tells a compelling consulates? If the logistics of in-person story. Foreign remiances from NRIs voting are too daunting for the current totaled 70 billion USD in 2012. For overseas consulate staff to handle, why perspective, that’s roughly 4 percent of not charge the consulates with identity

5 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review! India’s nominal 2012 GDP. It’s also the tied to India, no maer how we change most money any country receives as our externalities, appearance or remiances in the world – almost 18 environment. We have grown up in percent of the global share. This is India and it’s a part of us. It shapes our money sent home to businesses, identity and we view the world through relatives, and families and is reinvested the lens of its learnings and experiences. or saved in India. The Reserve Bank To say we don’t have a stake in India’s depends on this corpus in times of progress is shortsighted and pey. To currency fluctuations (like the recent say we have forsaken the country is crash against the dollar) and is regressive. By that standard, everyone encouraging NRIs to send more money moving to cities in search of beer back. opportunities should be deemed We have families back home whom we irrelevant to their places of birth. If this would like to be safe and comfortable. seems fundamentally unreasonable, Their welfare also drives us to voice why adopt a different standard for opinions about India. Some of us would NRIs? like to return to them. It makes sense to Technically, nothing stops us anymore involve NRIs in shaping the future of from exercising our right to vote (if we the country if they see themselves being spend thousands of dollars to travel a part of it. Iam personally aware of thousands of miles to do so, that is). many Indian colleagues who are Technically, nothing stops us from actively looking to move back or have voicing opinions about India – social already done so, citing a booming job media is free and accessible. What’s market or a desire to be with their galling is how these opinions are families. discounted. Granted, not all opinions NRIs, for beer or worse, are exposed to are created equal or are even rational, myriad styles of governance and policies and I am not trying to extrapolate my because they live or sele in foreign intentions to millions of other NRIs, but countries. Whether consciously or that is still no excuse for denying a subconsciously, these make a difference fundamental right by erecting barriers when forming opinions of how India to its access. should be governed. This perspective is We are enterprising, we are resilient, we valuable. are Indians, we would like to see India However, most importantly, we are still do well and we deserve our say— whether it’s an opinion or a vote.

6 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review! PERSPECTIVE Brewhouse PRIYA RAVICHANDRAN Priya Ravichandran is Programme Manager for the GCPP programme at the Takshashila Institution. Fight for the front line Serving your nation by serving in combat is an honour. Not allowing half the

Indians to do so is depressing. Minnesota National Guard National Minnesota

In August this year, 35 CRPF women in government and the military however Chhaisgarh became the first Indian seem to prefer to shirk away from such women to be deployed for combat logical persuasions. duties. For a country that is still atavistic India traditionally does not allow its in its beliefs about women entering women to serve in the infantry, artillery combat zones, the move to send this all or armoured corps, on board women group out for counter operational warships or fly fighter jets in insurgency operations into Maoist areas combat. Women are also required to was a sign of a quiet revolution. It retire after 14 years of service and can would have been logical to use the seek permanent commission only in the experience from this mission to start a education corps and the legal branch. larger conversation on allowing women The arguments against having them in to enter into combat roles and to set the combat roles and in positions that might stage for a gender neutral military. The 7! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review require them to control troops during has maintained the same standard of combat, have ranged from the drills and tests for both men and paternalistic to sexist. Retired military women. The United States of America is officers have called into question looking into modifying the standards. women’s ability to handle the pressures Women, have passed these tests and of a combat role, PoW situations, have gone on to command platoons and disturbance in rank and sexual show exceptional courage under fire in harassment in the military. the most unforgiving of conditions. The pressures of the combat role or being on the front line have not shown to be To assume that a significantly higher in these women woman’s life means more neither have they been affected more to this country than a than men in facing war. Opinions in the armed forces, point out man’s is paternalistic, to the fact that a woman’s need to take and morally maternity leave and time for her family, might potentially disrupt training and reprehensible. add to the expenses. Women in any profession are known to take time off for India’s views on having women in their family. It is illogical to assume that combat operations is not new. However this would hinder her career or what is troubling is the resistance to progress. For a woman jawan who has change this aitude in the face of pledged to serve the nation and give her mounting evidence that proves women life fighting for her country, working to be at par with men, during combat. during her ‘fertile’ years or arranging for Countries starting from Canada, Israel, external assistance to help take care of US, Brazil, Australia, France, Germany her family is not too much of a stretch. have all pushed for and ratified Sexual harassment is something that measures for inducting women into needs to be addressed. Proper combined infantry position and to serve on the training exercises and appropriate front line. Women have been sent to disciplinary measures much like the Afghanistan, Iraq and are on the front ones that exist in corporate structures lines in the Israel-Palestine border. can be put in place to ensure that an One of the oft cited reasons for not integrated military works. Cultural leing women sign up is the idea that differences are but a crutch to lean on women are physically weaker than men when all else fails. The military is an and therefore cannot sustain themselves. institution that demands the highest Every one of the above mentioned standards of discipline, honour, countries have figured out ways to commitment and valour from all those ensure that the standard requirement for who are associated with it. To assume the military does not fall or the armed that men, especially those belonging to a forces itself does not suffer from sub par rural background, would not pay heed candidates. Canada has maintained the to a woman commander or would risk same standard of drills and tests for suspension for sexually harassing an women as they were for men. Canada officer, is to not trust those who work in

8! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review the front line. India has moved forward. disability and death are all possible. A We have had women sarpanchas, women soldier irrespective of gender goes into chief ministers, a woman president, a war prepared for the worst of all woman prime minister, women possible situations. To assume that a commanding policemen and even woman’s life means more to this country women dacoits. If a man could subject than a man’s is paternalistic, and himself to listen to a woman in all of morally reprehensible. If a woman’s life these areas, the surely the military and did mean more, then rape, infant the government are underestimating the mortality and female illiteracy would be capacity of Indian men. history. One of the most ridiculous arguments An integrated military and women in made against women combat officers the front line and in combat situations is was by Air Marshal (retired) Sumit not much of a stretch. A voluntary Mukerji, who asked if we as a nation armed forces is the most valuable were prepared for women PoW and to institution of a country. Serving in the see them be subject to the same army and serving your nation is an treatment as the men PoW. The honour. Not allowing half the comparable question would be to ask population of the country to do so, is whether we as a nation are okay with depressing. There is a need to address women stepping outside their homes this deficiency and to ensure that people and being raped, tortured, maimed and following the footsteps of Shanti Tigga killed. To sign up for frontline duty is to get a chance to serve their country with know that the possibilities of capture, pride.

9! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE Public Affairs VIVEK SENGUPTA Vivek Sengupta is Founder and Chief Executive of the consulting firm Moving Finger Communications. EU-India Free Trade Agreement brooks no delay The UPA government should push for the EU-India FTA with the same purposiveness it displayed on the civil nuclear agreement with the US and

permitting FDI in multi-brand retail. European Parliament European

A high powered trade delegation from (BTIA), the FTA when signed would be a the European Union (EU) is due in Delhi landmark agreement for both India and next week. The visiting dignitaries are the 28-nation EU, its largest trading expected to call on the Union Minister partner. for Commerce and Industry, Mr Anand It is for the first time that the EU is Sharma, and bring up an issue that has venturing to sign such an agreement been hanging fire since 2007: the EU- with a large emerging economy. India bilateral free trade agreement Likewise, it is for the first time that India (FTA). Formally christened Broad-based is seeking to conclude an FTA with an Trade and Investment Agreement economy outside Asia. It is ambitious. It

10! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review is broad-based, as the name suggests. India and EU. Trade volumes between Above all, its signing brooks no delay the two sides are already very because it has the potential to give a substantial. According to Dr João fillip to the embaled economies of both Cravinho, Ambassador of the EU to the sides. Where New Delhi is India, bilateral trade can touch USD130 concerned, the very signing of it will billion this year and can cross USD200 send powerful signals to those who have billion within four to five years. What is all but wrien off the Indian economy. more, trade between the two sides is However, as with much else with the balanced. So, Indian Cassandras, who UPA government in New Delhi, this fear that India might be swamped by initiative too has met with major hurdles European goods, should have less to in the last mile of implementation. worry about if they take a holistic view. Differences between the two sides on a few issues have created an impasse-like If the FTA is not to be situation and only a massive bilateral push can see it through. deferred until a new What does the proposed India-EU FTA government assumes promise to deliver? In the first instance, office in Delhi, now is the it will mean a severe curtailment of trade barriers between the two sides. time for its champions to Customs duties would be either slashed press for it. or eliminated on over 90 percent of the goods traded by the two. It will also mean liberalisation of the services and From a political perspective, too, India investment sectors. and EU are more in alignment today than ever before in recent years. From India can look forward to gaining tackling Somalian pirates in the Indian market access for its textiles, Ocean to the future of Afghanistan, pharmaceuticals and gems & jewellery there is a meeting of positions between industries, among others. It can also the two sides on a host of issues. look forward to FDI in a host of areas, European powers, also, have been including financial services and defence supportive of India’s quest for a industries. More importantly, it can look permanent membership of the UN forward to multiple concessions, Security Council. If exchange of state including lighter visa norms, for its IT visits is an indicator, both EU states and and ITES industries, whose presence has India accord the highest priority to each been burgeoning in Europe in recent other. This year alone, prime minister years. EU, on the other hand, will have Manmohan Singh has visited Germany greater and wider access to the vast and and president Mukherjee has visited youthful Indian market with a growing Belgium, while prime minister Cameron middle class. Its automobile, dairy and of the United Kingdom, president wines & spirits industries, in particular, Francois Hollande of France and prime will stand to gain to the extent that minister Viktor Orban of Hungary have Indian entry barriers are eased. been among the highest ranking visitors The circumstances are propitious for the who have come calling to India. conclusion of an ambitious FTA between 11! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review And yet, this year has also been the winter session of Parliament. period when the least progress has been There is a deadlock also on the issue of made in the FTA talks in thrashing out “data secure” nation status that India the contentious issues and coming to an has demanded. Such a status as well as acceptable via media. For instance, the more liberal visa terms are critical for a EU has been pressing for a very quantum leap in European business by substantial lowering of tariffs on its IT services industry. But the EU has automobiles and wines & spirits. While been chary to grant, “data secure” status New Delhi is open to significant on the grounds that information accommodation of EU demands on the confidentiality norms in India are laer, it is finding it difficult to be unacceptably lax. The demand for forthcoming on the former. The Indian liberal visa terms and easing of travel automobile industry, used to high tariffs restrictions for Indian IT professionals on imports and hit domestically by the has also met with resistance from the EU double whammy of dipping demand because of domestic pressures. (due to the economic slowdown and high interest rates) and higher cost of Stumbling blocks and even deadlocks imported components (due to the are par for the course in trade plunging rupee), is lobbying hard to negotiations. If there is political will on keep the European cars out. Indian both sides, seasoned negotiators negotiators have been seeking to find a persevere and find ways of via media like leing in higher end cars circumventing the hurdles. There is no only and reasoning with the auto reason why the Indo-EU FTA should be industry that if it wants its own cars to any different. If the UPA government is be exported it must be prepared to yield serious about sending out a clear signal some ground. about its commitment to taking India out of the economic morass it finds itself Then again, the EU has been seeking in, it should push for this agreement concessions from India on the terms of with the same purposiveness which it government procurement and an displayed on the civil nuclear agreement increase in the FDI limit in insurance with the US and permiing FDI in companies. Here, while New Delhi has multi-brand retail. shown flexibility on the issue of procurement, its hands are tied on There is a fast closing window of insurance. The FDI limit in insurance opportunity still, and if the FTA is not to cannot be increased without be deferred until a new government parliamentary sanction. The assumes office in Delhi, now is the time government has tried many times to for its champions to press for it. More bring in the insurance Bill in Parliament. so, when there is no knowing how the But a stonewalling BJP, led on this issue new government might be disposed by an obdurate Yashwant Sinha, a towards an FTA with the EU. Narendra former finance minister, has just not let Modi, a contender for the top job, has that happen. The union government is already publicly denounced the FTA now left with the option of making negotiations, declaring that imports another valiant aempt to secure from the EU will destroy the Indian passage of the Bill in the upcoming dairy and animal husbandry industries!

12! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE Governance Agenda GULZAR NATARAJAN Gulzar Natarajan is a civil servant. The views are personal. Labour market reforms in India Among India’s still-born second generation reforms, labour market reforms is one of

the most important and politically difficult. Rajesh_India

A labyrinth of state and central labour and the process can be tortuous and market regulations, nearly 250 in lengthy. The IDA also requires that number, has created an excessively employees be given a 21-day notice regulated labour market with large before modification of work content, compliance costs. The Industrial wages and allowances, and other work Disputes Act (IDA) 1947, which applies conditions. Others like the Industrial to all formal sector firms employing Employment (Standing Orders) Act more than 50 people, is the most regulate work conditions in great detail, important. An amendment to IDA in leaving employers with limited mid-eighties made mandatory for firms flexibility in redeploying their work with more than 100 employees to seek force. Cross-country comparisons of government permission before firing labor market indicators, including by workers. The permission is rarely given,

13! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review the World Bank, reveal that India has disproportionately low number of among the most rigid labor markets. intermediate-sized firms. A recent study These regulations add layers of direct by International Finance Corporation and indirect costs, some of them being compared the sizes of the typical Indian, large enough to seriously erode Mexican, and US firms at start-up and at competitiveness. Further, ensuring the end of 35 years and found that their compliance with these regulations is size declined by a fourth in India fraught with litigation troubles and whereas it doubled in Mexico and rose rampant corruption. 10 times in the US. Firms have also sought to circumvent these restrictions by hiring part-time or Further, informal jobs are using contract labour – either directly or the equivalent of a through manpower contractors like Teamlease – for long periods and even government subsidy to for core activities. The share of contract such employers, in so far labour in the industrial workforce rose from 16 percent to 25 percent in the as it allows them to pass high-growth 2000-07 period to touch 150 on the social protection million. externalities to the This growth has been despite the uncertainty surrounding interpretation government. of the Contract Labor Act 1970, which has been amplified by contradictory It has also contributed to several court judgments. Labour representatives structural distortions. The larger firms claim that contract labour cannot be have no choice but to either endure the deployed on core activities, should be harassment or bribe their way out. But it compensated at the same rate as regular has adversely affected the growth of employees, and should be regularised if Small and Medium Enterprises, who they are working continuously in the have sought to limit their formal firm’s premises. employment below 100, preferring to Nowhere is contracting more pervasive either hire labour informally or not to than in construction sector, which has hire at all. This has serious economy- also been India’s dominant job creator. wide implications. Global experience A recent Planning Commission report shows that, contrary to conventional reveals that half of the 48 million net wisdom that big firms create jobs, the non-agriculture jobs generated in largest share of job creation happens 2004-05 to 2011-12 was in construction when smaller firms expand and sector, whereas manufacturing transition into medium and large-sized contributed just 5 million. It should ones. come as no surprise that more than 90 While it is difficult to draw direct causal percent of jobs in the construction sector, relationships, there is strong evidence to where employment is project-wise and believe that rigid labour market generally cyclical, are in the informal regulations are responsible for Indian sector. Construction contractors prefer manufacturing’s “missing middle” – to outsource their work through large

14! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review numbers of labour contracts, which offer different from any developed country in minimal or no protection to labourers. their similar phase of development. This Contracting and part-time work lower consensus remains strong even today. business operating cost by avoiding the However, the emergence of a global payment of gratuity, provident fund, supply chain, a massive global medical insurance, and other benefits. outsourcing market, and closer But as this trend consolidates, and given integration of India with the world the fundamental underlying tensions, it economy pose an important set of is certain to generate industrial disputes, challenges to this labor market. Firms as evidenced by the lockout at Maruti’s need to be flexible with their production Manesar plant in late 2011. processes to adapt to the dynamics of this environment to succeed. Collectively, these dynamics contribute to deepening our informal economy. We need a careful balancing of both More than 90 percent of India’s labor these apparently conflicting objectives. force is in the unorganised sector, the Labour regulations should be fair to highest in the world, far higher than the both employers and employees, average of 40 percent for developing allowing firms sufficient flexibility with countries. Though the informal sector their production decisions without employs nearly 94 percent of India’s compromising on basic protections of labour force, it produces just 57 percent workers. This requires a political of the GDP, leaving the formal 6 percent consensus among atleast all the major to generate 43 percent of GDP. parties. Informal labour distorts the incentives Such reforms are always likely to face of both employee and employer. It is less strong opposition in democracies. An productive, low paid, leaves workers unemployment insurance program, vulnerable, and discourages business predominantly government funded, can investment. Further, informal jobs are mitigate some resistance to such the equivalent of a government subsidy reforms. It is also true that such labour to such employers, in so far as it allows market reforms have succeeded only in them to pass on the social protection countries with such unemployment externalities to the government. cushions. In any case, a robust social safety net may be an essential pre- Supporters of labour market reforms, requisite for pushing through many especially those advocating big-bang other second generation reforms. The liberalisation, underestimate its challenge would be to get their design complexity. A political and social right so that it does not end up as consensus about protecting the interests another incentive distorting entitlement of workers underpinned these program. regulations. In this India was no

15! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE

CONSTANTINO XAVIER Constantino Xavier is a Portuguese Ph.D. candidate in South Asian Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, in Washington DC. The other Commonwealth India should foster links with the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries

(CPLP) to give it an even more diverse, democratic and Asian identity. Glyn Lowe Glyn Photoworks, Views, Million 1 Thanks

The Commonwealth Heads of commit to this 53-country club headed Government Meeting seems to be of by Queen Elizabeth II, it will hopefully such importance to India’s interests that also find some time to spare for another its Oxford-educated Prime Minister commonwealth; the very republican skipping it this month became a maer Community of Portuguese-Speaking of national concern and outrage. This Countries (CPLP). fixation with the majestic Founded in 1996, the CPLP differs from “Commonwealth of Nations” is its British counterpart mainly because puzzling given that it is the the former colonial power Portugal organisational successor of the 19th hardly ever played a leading role in it. century Imperial and Colonial The CPLP is now the institutional Conferences that denied India the same representative of close to 250 million principles of democracy, human rights people who speak Portuguese (fifth and rule of law it not professes as its most spoken language) in eight core values. So if India finds it helpful to countries across four continents, five of

16! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review which in Africa (Angola, Mozambique, of the new Indo-Pacific region and its Guinea Bissau, Cape Verde, Sao Tome swelling shipping lanes. And last, but and Principe) and one each in Europe not least, while Portugal endures a grim (Portugal), South America (Brazil) and financial context, its privileged position Asia (Timor Leste). These are the eight by the Atlantic and its economic and member states of the CPLP, and they are political expertise on its former colonies all of increasing importance for India, remain of great value to an India that albeit for different reasons. will continue to look West despite the new East. Since at least 2008, I have made several But now that India has suggestions for India to connect with established direct, these Portuguese-speaking countries in strong and burgeoning a more structured way, particularly through Goa, where 451 years of ties with all other seven Portuguese colonisation and direct CPLP countries, the contact with other regions of the lusosphere have left a great potential to time has come to move be explored. Slowly, things are moving beyond post-colonial forward. This January will see the small state host the third edition of the anxieties in the interest Lusofonia Games, a major sporting of more pragmatic and event similar to the Commonwealth Games, and also an international deeper economic business conference on India and the relations. lusophone (Portuguese-speaking) markets worldwide. Brazil is a key BRICS and IBSA partner, One further possibility would be for and one of New Delhi’s most important New Delhi to emulate Beijing’s strategic partners of the 21st century to phenomenal Macau Forum, which, since revitalise the old South-South axis 2003, hosts a triennial ministerial where India once predominated. Angola economic conference between China is a key supplier of oil and diamonds, and Portuguese-speaking states. An and most recently also keen in accessing Indian variant, whether held in Mumbai India’s immense know-how in the or Goa, would certainly facilitate educational and infrastructure sectors. economic relations, but there is a way Mozambique has developed as one of India can do beer and go beyond just India’s greatest success stories in Africa, imitating China: it can seek to become with significant investments in the an associate observer member of the mining and transportation sector, but CPLP. also thriving security cooperation as the Established in 2005, this observer Indian Navy expands its operational category allows states to aend the presence to the Indian Ocean’s biennial summits and get privileged Southwestern coasts and channels. access to a variety of CPLP forums and Timor-Leste has immense gas reserves, initiatives, ranging from economic and and is strategically located at the heart technical to security and military

17! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review cooperation, as well as cultural first told me about Timor-Leste’s exchanges. ambitions to develop strong links with There is lile in the way for India to India via Goa. As his country is set to achieve this status, especially given that assume its first rotating CPLP smaller states like Cape Verde or Timor- presidency in July of next year, and the Leste would benefit dramatically from current Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao expanding their institutional channels pretends to give the organisation a with New Delhi. India also perfectly sharper economic and Asian focus, this fulfills the requirements regarding is the perfect time for Delhi to approach democratic governance and the respect Dili about an observer status. for human rights that guide the CPLP Furthermore, the CPLP’s current founding charter, unlike China and also executive secretary, Murade Murargy, is Equatorial Guinea, whose recent a Mozambican diplomat of Indian membership bid faltered on this, among origin, and would certainly appreciate other obstacles. India would also be reconnecting with his ancestral signalling its strong commitment to homeland even while facilitating India’s strengthen existing multilateral seings, new links with the organisation of rather than a narrow bilateral approach Portuguese-speaking countries. so often pursued by China, as embodied Irony had it that until quite recently it in the Macau Forum. was Lisbon, and not New Delhi, that Senegal, Mauritius and Equatorial most feared bringing up the India-CPLP Guinea already enjoy observer status link, as if that was going to resuscitate (Namibia, Georgia and Indonesia also the Goa ghosts of 1961. But now that expressed interest), and while their links India has established direct, strong and to the Portuguese-speaking world may burgeoning ties with all other seven be significant, they are certainly less CPLP countries, the time has come to strong than those of India, which has move beyond post-colonial anxieties in thousands of Portuguese speakers and the interest of more pragmatic and an invaluable heritage that for almost deeper economic relations. five centuries, connected it to a wider Earlier this month, Tamil Nadu’s lusosphere from Sao Paulo to Macau. regional parties once again proved Mombasa, Ormuz, Malaca, and Macau strong enough to seize India’s foreign were all once ruled from Goa, long policy and force the Prime Minister to before the East India Company first set skip the Commonwealth summit. up shop in the subcontinent. Hopefully this will now leave him some The timing for all this to happen is time to look at ways to foster links with extraordinarily propitious in 2014. Ten another commonwealth, the one that years ago, Jose Ramos-Horta, the speaks Portuguese and looks up to India country’s former president, prime to give it an even more diverse, minister, and minister of foreign affairs, democratic and Asian identity.

18! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE

LORO HORTA Loro Horta is a diplomat based in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. He was an advisor to the Timor-Leste Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was the United Nations national project manager for Security Sector Reform in Timor- Leste. India’s bridge to the Lusophone world India should create the Goa Forum to institutionalise its growing economic and cultural interactions with its Lusophone partners.

refused Beijing’s invitation to participate as an observer. This Lusophone community is spread across four continents and covers more than 250 million people. The Macau Special Administrative Region hosts the Macau Forum under the auspices of the Chinese Ministry of

Ernest W W Ernest Adams Commerce, with the Chinese government providing most of the funding for the Forum, and the Macanese government contributing a smaller portion. In addition to promoting commercial ties between In 2003 the Chinese government China and the Lusophone community, established the Forum for Economic and the Forum also organises training Trade Cooperation between China and courses and investment seminars for the Portuguese speaking countries, also member countries’ officials, and it funds referred to as the Macau Forum. It is a number of media publications. These made up of eight countries: Angola, publications report on economic and Brazil, Cape Verde, China, Guinean trade maers and provide information Bissau, Mozambique, Portugal and on the lusophone countries’ and China’s Timor-Leste, with Macau as an Observer economy. Adding to this focus, the member. The Atlantic island nation of Forum hosts a ministerial-level meeting Sao Tome and Princepe does not to discuss economic and trade maers participate due to the fact that it has every two years. diplomatic ties to Taiwan and has 19! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review A decade after Beijing’s investment has Chinese navy pilots have trained on the paid handsomely. In 2003–06, trade Brazilian aircraft carrier São Paulo, and between China and the Lusophone both countries have jointly produced countries more than tripled, growing satellites as well as a jetliner. Portugal from US$10 billion to US$34 billion, and also seems open to the idea of lifting the in 2011 despite the global economic EU arms embargo on China — which slowdown it reached $117.23 billion. In the EU implemented after the 2009, Brazil, the world’s seventh-largest Tiananmen crackdown has ben economy, became China’s largest trading sympathetic voice on disputes with the partner in the southern hemisphere, EU such as the recent row over solar with bilateral trade reaching US$42 panels. billion. China also surpassed the US as While the Macau Forum is not the only Brazil’s main trading partner after more force behind the impressive expansion than 80 years of American dominance. in Sino-Lusophone relations, it has certainly played a crucial role in India should take accelerating the process. With minimal, but rather smart, investment, China has advantage of these obtained tremendous economic and cultural and historical diplomatic gains at a small price. links to advance its Enter the elephant economic and India is particularly well poised to emulate similar success through the diplomatic interest Lusophone world where Indian among an increasingly companies are fast gaining ground. As with the case of China, Portugal was the important group of first to establish colonial possessions in countries. India and the last to leave when a recalcitrant fascist government in Lisbon was forced out of Goa by the Indian In Africa, Angola has been China’s army in 1961. largest trading partner on the continent since 2008 — with bilateral trade Goa and the other former Portuguese reaching US$24 billion in 2010 — and territories such as Damao, Dio, Dadra between 2007- 2008, temporarily became and Nagar Haveli have preserved many China’s main oil supplier China was Lusophone characteristics and India Mozambique’s third-largest trading being a democratic country, has done so partner in 2010. China has also become a freely and proudly. Goa the smallest major source of soft loans for the two state in the Union is amongst the countries, granting Angola a reported wealthiest in India. Before the rise of US$15 billion since 2002 and over US$2 Bangalore in the late 1990s, it had the billion to Mozambique. highest GDP per capita in the country. Goa is an economic success story with a China has gained substantial diplomatic lively civil society and a diversified support through these relations, economy. As such it would be well particularly on issues such as human placed to become a hub for Indo- rights, trade and global warming. Lusophone engagement and be 20! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review beneficial for all the parties concerned. Forum should not be seen as a way to The creation of the Goa Forum would counter China, but rather as a forum allow New Delhi a space to develop and that benefits all concerns and focuses on cultivate close ties with countries such economic and cultural aspects. Goa as Brazil and resource rich nations like could also become a hub for educational Angola and Mozambique, while also and other exchanges with students and allowing interaction with countries that government officials, particularly in have lile contact with New Delhi, such areas like tourism and IT being trained has Sao Tome and Princepe, Cape Verde, in the territory. Goa would be the perfect Guinea Bissau and Timor-Leste. venue to host business meetings India’s presence in some of the between Indian business interests and Lusophone countries is increasing. For their Lusophone counterparts. instance Indian companies have In November this year, Goa will host the invested several billions in the gas and third Jogos da Lusofonia– the coal sectors in Mozambique. While in Lusophone version of the Angola and Brazil, Indian oil companies Commonwealth games. In addition to are slowly but steadily entering the the 8 Lusophone countries, Sri Lanka market. In many Lusophone countries, and Equatorial Guinea, two countries there are large communities of Indians, with strong Portuguese cultural especially the Goanese. These Indian influences will also aend. This is an communities tend to be influential in important first step. However, New both politics and business. A Goanese, Delhi in cooperation with its Lusophone Professor Narana Cossoro was the partners should seriously consider speaker of the Portuguese Parliament institutionalising this growing economic and is one of the leading European and cultural interactions and create the authorities on India. In Timor-Leste, Dr Goa Forum. In January 2014, Goa will Roque Rodrigues was a former Minister host the first conference between of Defence and is currently a senior businessmen from the Portuguese advisor to the President. The country’s speaking countries and India. current police commander Longuinhos In visits to Angola, Portugal, Cape Monteiro is also of Goanese ancestry Verde, Guinea Bissau and contacts in and several former ministers in Timor-Leste between October 2010 and Mozambique have Indian ancestry. March 2013, the author raised the idea India should take advantage of these with several senior Lusophone officials cultural and historical links to advance ranging from head of state to ministers its economic and diplomatic interest and ambassadors. The idea has been among an increasingly important group received with sympathy. It’s now up to of countries. The creation of the Goa New Delhi to respond.

21! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE

SALIL BIJUR Salil Bijur is a civil servant from the Indian Revenue Service based in Bangalore. The views are personal. The good and bad of political donations In a healthy democracy, citizens’ involvement in the political process should not end

at voting alone. Partha Sarathi Sahana ParthaSarathi

How much does an election cost? of these donations come from Conducting the 2009 general elections businesses. cost the government Rs 1120 crores. The Before independence, the business class actual expenditure incurred in the actively participated in politics, either elections by candidates and political by contesting elections or funding parties has been estimated to about $3 political parties. The cost of election billion (about Rs 14,000 crores). campaigning increased drastically after So elections are an expensive affair, and adult franchise was introduced by the political parties depend on donations Constitution and political parties felt the from individuals and organisations. But need for larger funding apart from unlike philanthropists contributing to membership fees and individual social causes mostly out of an altruistic donations. spirit, political donations are generally In this light, the Companies Act was motivated by support for an ideology or amended in 1960 to allow companies to out of an interest to see a particular donate to political parties up to a certain party in power. And a large proportion limit. In the days of License Raj, the ruling Congress party and the pro-

22! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review market Swatantra Party were the major donations tax-deductible – a request beneficiaries of corporate donations for industry associations had been making presumably opposite reasons. The for a decade. ability of big businesses to influence Thereafter, the Income Tax Act made a governments through money power provision to reduce the taxable income came under criticism and so in 1969, the of a person by the amount of donation Companies Act was amended with made. Section 80GGB of the I-T Act support from the socialists. This offers a tax deduction to companies on a amendment not only prohibited condition that the contribution is not corporate funding but also made it more than 5 percent of its profits and the punishable. details of the beneficiaries are well With rising election expenditure on one documented in account books and hand, and a ban on transparent and audited annual reports. Section 80GGC legal corporate funding on the other, the if the I-T Act offers the same tax entry of unaccounted cash donation deduction to non-corporates from tax evasion and illegal activities (individuals, partnership firms, only increased. Although this ban was associations, trusts, etc.) without any lifted in 1985, the low ceiling on limit. corporate donations did lile to reduce Does the Government lose out on black money in politics. Election revenue because of tax deduction? It expenditure of a candidate did not does not, asserted the then Law Minister include expenditure of the party head in Parliament, because if an incentive is office or the candidate’s supporters, given to pay in cheque at an early stage, hence the candidates could show this money is going to be in the tax net expenditure well within the limit, but at a subsequent stage. To verify this, it is benefited by expenditure made by useful to look at the “Statement of others. Revenue Foregone” which is brought It was in 2003 when the Election and out with the Union Budget. This report Other Related Laws (Amendment) Act gives an estimate of the tax revenue that was brought in with the stated intention did not come into the coffers of the of making the electoral process clean, government due to tax exemptions,

(Amount in crores) fair and corruption-free. It first clarified deductions and rebates. that electoral expense included Except for one year 2008-09, it is seen expenditure by party and supporters that the contribution of non-corporates and set a limit to it. The act also sought is greater than that by companies. (The to incentivise donations by cheque peak in individual contributions in payment to parties by making these

23! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review 2009-10 is likely due to the fact that it “Reforming India’s Party Financing and was an election year.) Election Expenditure Laws” have made Therefore, the corporate sector which reasonable arguments for the raising or has a larger capacity for political removing this limit. The criticism funding does not seem to have the major against this is that it would benefit only share. One reason is the limit on the bigger parties and lead to the donations a company can make. The marginalisation of smaller parties and more likely reason is the fear of reprisal independent candidates who have out of vindictiveness by parties it did limited financial sources. However, not donate. Hence it is found that there is not much evidence to show that despite the availability of transparent excessive spending always translates to legal routes to fund parties, these are not a victory. But the current limits prevent availed of by majority of the donors. The even genuine and legitimate expenses – Association of Democratic Reforms in a even for smaller parties and recent analysis on the income of major independents. political parties from 2004 to 2012 found that the legal donations amount to only Electoral reform 8.9 percent of their total income whereas the majority share of 75 percent of their therefore should be income comes from unknown sources – aimed at increasing the read as cash donations. bottom-to-up flow of In 2009, the tax deduction provision was extended to donations to electoral trusts funds or grassroot – non-profit companies which collect the funding rather than a contributions and disseminate to political parties. This has become the top-to-bottom flow of preferred route of contribution by big funds from the high corporate houses and a glance at the income statements of the major parties command. reveals that these electoral trusts play a substantial role. But even then, the While the removal of expenditure limits contributions from electoral trusts come can ensure transparency at the within the minority proportion of the constituency level, there is a need for an legal route. The malaise of political increase in the transparency norms at funding continues to be that of cash the central party level to restrict funding donations. for quid pro quo through undue discretionary favours. This should come One of the main reasons for the with simultaneous tightening of dominant role of cash in elections is scrutiny and audit of the disclosures limit on election expenditure – Rs 4 made by the parties by independent million for a Lok Sabha candidate – due authorities. These disclosures should to which candidates and political parties include more details of voluntary are compelled to channelise donors such as their PAN (Permanent unaccounted cash. Aruna Urs in a Account Number) which is linked to Pragati article and MV Rajeev Gowda other transactions of the donor such as and E Sridharan in a 2012 paper bank accounts and credit cards.

24! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review Corporate donations also need to be be done by increasing the incentives for more transparent by requiring individuals and non-corporates to companies to consult their shareholders donate to local branches of parties. The before making political donations. tax deduction is only one such incentive. Another issue is that of allowing Encouraging cleaner money to enter anonymous donations. The current limit politics goes hand-in-hand with of Rs 20,000 on anonymous cash encouraging the contribution of transactions is routinely bypassed by the individuals in political parties. In a donation of multiple smaller sums. The system where political parties are seen channels of real estate companies, to be dominated by a monetarily education and religious trusts, which powerful minority, greater participation deal with large-scale cash transactions, by individuals in parties – not just are known to be used to route through membership but also donations anonymous donations. Disallowing – should lead to intra-party democracy anonymous donations or taxing them is at the grassroots level. an idea that should be seriously In a healthy democracy, citizens’ considered. involvement in the political process Electoral reform therefore should be should not end at voting alone. It should aimed at increasing the boom-to-up extend to supporting the political flow of funds or grassroot funding ideologies and the candidates they rather than a top-to-boom flow of believe in. funds from the high command. This can

25! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE Savyasachi RAVIKIRAN RAO Ravikiran S Rao blogs at The Examined Life. Levelling democracy

To safeguard democracy, we must separate governance from the popular will. StockMonkeys.com

Should electoral opinion polling be positive impression about the BJP’s banned, or at least severely restricted in prospects may cause an anti-Congress India? On the face of it, this question voter, who is otherwise unsure of which sounds absurd. The Constitution way he must vote to dislodge the Indian guarantees citizens the Right to Free National Congress from power, to Speech. People are entitled to hold believe that there is a consolidation in opinions about political issues and favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party, and transmit these opinions to pollsters, who thereby cause him to vote for it. are then entitled to publish these Likewise, it may cause those who are opinions in newspapers. But one must unseled by the prospect of Narendra remember that freedom of speech is Modi rising to power to strategically subject to reasonable restrictions. vote in such a way that the party with Maintaining the sanctity of India’s the best chance of stopping the BJP democracy does count as a reasonable wins. Such careful calculation by voters cause for restrictions. goes against everything electoral Publication of opinion polls may cause democracy stands for. potential voters to change their minds There have been other strong arguments about whom to vote for. For example, made by those opposed to publication of the recent spate of polls that provide a opinion polls. T C A Srinivasa-

26! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review Raghavan, in a recent piece in Business benefits of informing the populace. The Standard, cites research by three case for restricting campaigning to professors at Harvard University to safeguard democracy is much stronger make his case. That paper deals with a than is commonly assumed. curious psychological phenomenon. We have seen how the bandwagon effect When people who have strong views on and underdog effect results from a subject are provided with additional opinion polling, the effects of those polls information, their pre-existing views, are fairly distant when compared with whether in favour of or in opposition to what a prospective voter has to go a position, are strengthened rather than through in his daily life. Given the surge weakened. This is true even when the in Mr Modi’s popularity among the additional information provided is Hindu middle class voters, hardly a day unbiased and has information on both goes by without a video of his speech sides of a position. showing up on the voter’s Facebook While this is paper provides us with a feed, and it is a rare office cafeteria that fairly strong case against opinion polls, does not host a daily discussion on how we must recognise that its import goes the Congress should be voted out in much beyond that. This provides us 2014. with strong evidence of the wastefulness of campaigning. We are familiar with the common phenomenon where, a A cynic may wonder person who is convinced of Rahul whether voters are so Gandhi’s lack of intellectual rigour becomes even more convinced of it on unintelligent that they hearing his speeches, while one who forget the record of the believes that he is intelligent, but inarticulate, spends hours interpreting government all through his cryptic references to decipher depths its term in the heady rush of meaning vastly beyond what he intended. Likewise, those opposed to of excitement of hearing Mr Modi are even more convinced of his policies being announced anti-Muslim bias when he boasts of the a month before the Haj quota from Gujarat being full, and his supporters interpret every one of his elections. sound-bites as evidence of his administrative genius. The participants in these discussions In other words, much of campaigning certainly have a vested interest in the serves, not to help us choose between outcome – their economic futures alternatives, but to strengthen our depend on the way the election results beliefs. Given that one person has only of 2014 will go. The consequence of one vote and votes are not weighted by these conversations is to provide a intensity of our convictions, most strong, but perhaps false impression to a campaigning serves only to polarise the neutral voter that there is a nationwide electorate in a way that is damaging to wave in favour of the BJP, and thereby democracy without the countervailing biasing his decision-making process. The Election Commission must certainly 27! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review take note of this. While it may be further in levelling the field and impractical to regulate the daily upholding the principles of democracy conversations of people, it must that has made India what it is today. It encourage the citizenry to self-regulate must also focus on what is surely the and inculcate the model code of conduct biggest source of unfairness in the into their daily lives. While all citizens electoral system – the ruling party gets have the right to freedom of expression, an opportunity to make policies for five it comes with certain duties. years, while the opposition has no such The Election Commission imposes an chance. While it would be ideal for the effective ban on policymaking when Election Commission to get the model elections are announced. The intent code of conduct to be applicable at all behind this is laudable – it is to prevent times, any such aempt will surely be voters from being unfairly influenced by met with protests from vested interests recently announced policies. A cynic who will use the constitution as the may wonder whether voters are so excuse to claim that the Commission is unintelligent that they forget the record going beyond its remit. However, the of the government all through its term trend of the Supreme Court taking over in the heady rush of excitement of policy-making from the government hearing policies being announced a may provide a ray of hope. The recent month before the elections. But that ruling where the Court has taken away cynic would show himself to be ignorant the power of elected representatives to of recent research in behavioural appoint civil servants is particularly sciences that question the premise of the welcome. To safeguard democracy, we rational and self-interested voter. must separate governance from the popular will. The Election Commission needs to go

28! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE Public Affairs RENU POKHARNA Renu Pokharna runs the advocacy group Dharna2.0 in Ahmedabad. Lobbying: Is it better to legalise than criminalise? The way to handle lobbying is to either legalise it or reduce the discretionary power

that the ministry holds over the contracts and let the markets prevail. topher 76 topher

The name Niira Radia is synonymous Lobbying when it comes to business with crony capitalism. However it is not contracts only explains a part of the just Radia and her firm that helped story; it ignores the larger issue of corporate biggies earn a favour with the discretionary power, vested with the government. The Supreme Court judges politician or the bureaucrat in a actually remarked that there are democratic set-up. It is this power middlemen in “every nook and corner” combined with the overarching presence of the government. This encapsulates of the government in business that leads the extent of the state in not just to lobbying. The late James Buchanan, business but also areas of social welfare, through his public choice theory, argued where we have ‘middlemen’ and that a bureaucrat will try to increase his ‘middlewomen’ lobbying for specific sphere of influence because it is in his legislation. self-interest to do so. One of the ways of increasing this sphere of influence is

29! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review obviously holding power to grant in the US, or two, reduce the licenses, permits, quotas and other discretionary power that the ministry favours to businessmen. Is it any holds over the contracts and let the wonder then that in our multi-party markets prevail. The so called democracy and coalition politics, parties “government failure”, a term coined by try to snatch the plum ministries? What public-choice theorists to explain how then makes a ministry important some interest groups gain at the cost of enough to negotiate deals within parties, the larger populace, can be solved if we you may ask? It is simply the ministry reduce the need for lobbying. So instead that has either a lot of tax payers’ money of the government handling out licenses to spend– like ministries that control for all contracts, it could just be schemes and dole outs like rural contracts between those who own the development, social welfare etc. The property and the companies who want others are ministries that handle big to mine for example in case of coal contracts related to oil and petroleum, auctions. This can be done after roads, industries etc. implementing a good property rights The maximum lobbying by businesses regime. and social workers, also happens in these two departments. Whether a bill It is this power for food security or guaranteeing jobs for all, the lobbyists, lobby with these combined with the particular ministries. And the ones overarching presence of promoting big business, lobby with the others. The truth though is that in the the government in former, it is the taxpayers’ money being business that leads to spent on redistribution. Though we are not sure about the money even reaching lobbying. the poor, it is deemed acceptable. It is the lobbying for contracts that is Legalising lobbying would be deemed bad, even though it is supporting what James Madison called something that a corporate company ‘factions’ when he wrote the Federalist would be forced to do, owing to any Papers during the American lack of self-interest that a bureaucrat independence movement supporting the might have in granting a contract to a differing groups who according to him particular company. Lobbying happens would bale each other out and balance by states and politicians themselves for differences. Normally banning specific ministries or for statehood. Do something, whether it is alcohol or we know that money is not being drugs doesn’t prevent it from being exchanged in that case? Bihar would produced and sold, it just so happens have lobbied for “special status”. that politicians and bureaucrats make Whether it bribed its way to it or more black money than legally. whether there was a quid-pro-quo in Similarly, lobbying currently in the kind, we don’t know. absence of a legislation means ex- Now there are two ways to handle this. bureaucrats geing plum posts after One, legalise lobbying as has been done quiing a ministry and using their influence for geing licenses, or firms

30! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review making pay-offs to regulators than help to make the process of tendering using the tender/bidding route to get easy for example. The groups would contracts. Thus a lot of black money hold greater accountability to the sectors circulates in the system because of the and would be in a beer position to ban. A legislation that sets rules of this advice on policy and selection than a might be able to actually increase minister or a bureaucrat who might not transparency in the process of handling be a technical expert. out contracts and lobbying firms can be The point remains that Niira Radia brought under the RTI Act. should not be made to wear the Another idea can be what Hong Kong albatross of being a lobbyist around her does that is elect half of its MPs from neck and paraded around when it is trade groups. So out of 70 legislators in evident that under the table deals are the Hong Kong Parliament, 35 are happening within every ministry. The returned from functional constituencies mistake she made was to do it through like textiles, banking etc. to represent an established company so it could be their interests. If we have a tracked easily. If only lobbying was representative elected by the groups legalised, then this tracking for every themselves aached with each ministry, contract would have ensured a more or CII or FICCI representatives, it might transparent regime.

31! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review PERSPECTIVE

BALARAM The author is a civil servant. The name has been changed. The views expressed are personal. A concerned honest civil servant wonders now The biggest governance challenge for a new government will be re-creating the legitimate space for executive action.

Meanest Indian

This Mint article is an interesting officer a certificate–I do not know him) it portrayal of the situation in the country has been a chilling experience for honest today. I would strongly commend to officers. you the paragraphs of the article on the In all other democratic countries with Supreme Court, the CBI and the rule of law, this mere suspicion with no bureaucracy. specific evidence on bribes would not be The recent CBI decision to prosecute the sufficient to begin a corruption former coal secretary for corruption prosecution. This basis for prosecution without any specific allegation of is reminiscent of prosecutions in the bribery, quid pro quo or benefit and Soviet Union and China. Increasingly simply based on a decision on file and the enforcement agencies, in response to some innuendo is but the latest example media and judicial pressure, have in a recent trend. Without knowing the resorted to ‘criminal prosecution by file specifics of the case (I am not giving the reading’ instead of doing painstaking

32! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review investigative and forensic work of the separately argue for a transparent kind that got Wall Street bankers policy.) convicted in New York. Such shoddy The lesson many are drawing is that the prosecutions will result in acquial but safe course is to take those decisions that may take 20 years! Plus, in cases which appear honest–always give to where the Supreme Court is directing public sector, refuse all liberalising the investigation, will a lower court later changes, never say yes to any request easily acquit the persons charged even if from any private party, never do they are innocent? anything which–even if innocent–might The problem with file-based potentially look guilty. The current imputations of misconduct is that the situation is actually driving out and actions of a corrupt officer helping a scaring the good civil servants. Of firm and an honest officer taking a bold course, the image of the civil service has decision in public interest, may look sunk so low because of the large number identical on file. The former will not be of corrupt officers, that even making this deterred because the gains of corruption argument may get many people to think will compensate for the risk; but the the person arguing so is also corrupt or bold and honest officer will become a is a camp follower of the current timid nay-sayer because for him there is government. no personal reward whereas there is now great personal risk if he disagrees with anything said by a subordinate. The problem with file- This is transferring power to the lowest based imputations of (and possibly less knowledgeable or more venal) level officials who put up misconduct is that the the initial proposals, because any actions of a corrupt disagreement with the lower level is a possible source of allegations of officer helping a firm and corruption against the higher level. an honest officer taking a In the coal case, can we be sure that bold decision in public more coal would be mined by the public sector NLC than by Hindalco? Could interest, may look there not be a plausible case for the identical on file. allocation to Hindalco? (Of course, a good officer would have recorded those The article in Mint refers to the reasons–but what is not clear is whether Supreme Court orders on the telecom that would have deterred the CBI from issue. In the other recent maer of naming him.) It is possible that the clinical trials too, court orders will have decision was wrong—but bad decisions economic consequences. If the clinical are not criminal offences. It is indeed trials were faulty and violative of the possible the decision was corrupt–BUT law, the Supreme Court could have THEN THE INVESTIGATION SHOULD struck them down and asked the TRACE THAT. Not having a coal executive to frame proper guidelines allocation policy is not a criminal within 30 days and enforce them strictly; offence (and the officer in question did that would definitely have been an

33! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review appropriate exercise of judicial power. joining an unlawful assembly. Are we But I have doubts about the sure that the lower judiciary is honest, appropriateness of their decision to start competent and fair in all cases? (The giving clearances to some individual number of verdicts overturned by clinical trials but not others on a case- higher courts suggests otherwise.) The by-case basis, performing what appears appeal process may take 15 years. to me to be an executive function. Meanwhile that person cannot even be Whatever may be one’s opinion on the considered for election by the voters. current government, there is a This is the reason why I have serious mechanism for dealing with that—the reservations about puing the careers of forthcoming general election. If you people at the mercy of the local police assume that the election produces a and lower judiciary. If the judiciary had working majority for a different also been able to clean its own Augean government, these other trends will, stables and ensure that appeals of such however, not vanish. Unfortunately, convictions are heard in 3 months in the there is no similar mechanism for High Court and 3 more months in the changing the behaviour of these other Supreme Court, then I would have no institutions. The Supreme Court is now reservations–but it is unlikely that the often regarded as legislating and physician will heal himself in the near exercising executive power—opponents future. I seriously fear that the of the government should not assume unintended consequences of this this will stop if there is a change of judgement may be a new game of government. Nor should they assume eliminating political opponents by false the civil service will suddenly become prosecutions. Gandhi, Nehru, Patel and decisive. Thus, the biggest governance thousands of freedom fighters had challenge for a new government could criminal records; even after well be these issues referred to in the Independence, George Fernandes and article and the re-creating of legitimate numerous others contested elections space for executive action. from jail. Many separatist movements could not have been ended if their At the risk of sounding even more leaders had been debarred from retrograde and corrupt, let me make one contesting for earlier offences or charges more point: the Supreme Court has pending. I say without irony that the declared unconstitutional the law great strength of Indian democracy in allowing legislators to continue if they contrast to other ex-British colonies was have appealed a criminal conviction. that even those in detention and in jail There also appears to be a move to were able to contest elections and the debar those against whom a charge executive could not easily remove its sheet has been filed. Its results are good electoral opponents from the fray until when one is thinking of some of the convictions were upheld by higher usual suspects. However, let us assume courts. Mahathir Mohammed, Jomo some low level judicial magistrate’s Kenyaa, Robert Mugabe and many court wrongly and without proper others have been accused of dealing evidence, convicts an opposition with electoral opponents by successfully politician of complicity in riots or of prosecuting them; that was not possible instigating communal hatred or of in India. It is possible now.

34! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review IN DEPTH Conflictology BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY Bibhu Prasad Routray, a Singapore based security analyst, served as a Deputy Director in the National Security Council Secretariat, New Delhi. The enemy as an enigma The inexplicable knowledge gap about the Indian Mujahideen continues to facilitate the group’s interminable violent campaign and contributes to its near unassailability.

foxgirrl

Terrorist aacks serve a variety of into the world of Indian Mujahideen purposes – avenging perceived (IM)– the outfit responsible for at least injustices, sending out messages, and 18 episodes of explosions in 14 Indian serving as reminders to the adversaries cities since 2005, accounting for that the threat has not disappeared. hundreds of deaths– is elementary, if not They also underline the incomplete pretentious. It is this acute and knowledge of the state about the inexplicable knowledge gap, which dynamism of the terrorist movements. continues to facilitate the group’s Apart from the usual blame game about interminable violent campaign and intelligence failure, lack of preparedness contributes to its near unassailability. among the police, and political Lets try to answer the following five opportunism, the Patna blasts on 27 questions, on the basis of what is known October demonstrated that our insight about the outfit. 35 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review First, what are the IM’s aims and Second, who are the leaders of IM? objectives, which by all means remain Names of the Bhatkal brothers, Yasin extremely fluid, expanding and Bhatkal, Amir Reza Khan, Abdul contracting as per its convenience? The Subhan Qureshi and Tahseen Akhtar first ever ‘manifesto’ of the group have been quoted frequently. The released in 2007, after the bombings of National Investigative Agency (NIA) has court complexes in Lucknow, Varanasi announced a reward of Rupees four and Faizabad, claimed that the blasts are lakh leading to the arrest of Qureshi and intended to “punish local lawyers who ten lakh each for Amir Reza Khan and had aacked suspects held for an Tahseen Akhtar. But how important are abortive Jaish-e-Muhammad kidnap these leaders for the outfit’s operational plot.” Two other manifestos, released purposes? What explains the Patna after the 2008 blasts in Delhi and the explosions only two months after the 2010 explosions in Varanasi, blamed high profile arrest of Yasin Bhatkal? Will “the Supreme Court, the high courts, the the IM’s bombing campaign come to a lower courts and all the commissions” halt if Tahseen Akhtar alias Monu, for failing the Muslims. The focus from described as number two in the the judiciary has since shifted and in fact organisation and the prime conspirator has become more mysterious with the in the Patna and Bodhgaya explosions outfit discontinuing the practice of and a range of earlier bombings is to be mailing its manifesto following each arrested? aack, forcing the agencies to depend upon the interrogation of arrested cadres to unravel the intentions behind How much field-based the explosions. research on internal As per such interrogation reports, the security is being done in Pune explosions of August 2012 were intended to avenge the killing of its the government and cadre Qateel Siddique in Yerawada Jail. private funded think Blasts targeting the Buddhist shrine in Bodhgaya in July 2013 were supposed to tanks remains a valid avenge the aacks on the Rohingyas in question. Myanmar. The 27 October explosions in Patna were reportedly carried out to Third, how much do we know about the protest against the Muzaffarnagar riots. group’s actual size? Few years back, Does that make IM purely an ideology- “memos for internal use” by intelligence based organisation with both local as agencies estimated the outfit’s cadre well as global aspirations or an strength at less than 100. Some of these organisation that is controlled by ‘memos’ even claimed that beyond external forces? Or is it an outfit that is about 20 hardcore cadres, IM is only a willing to carry out aacks evoking motley of estranged youths who do not almost any concern that suits its subscribe to any of the outfit’s ideology. convenience? Since no answers are Each explosion and interrogation of available to these questions, lile can be arrested cadres, however, have since predicted about the outfit’s plan of expanded the outfit’s strength to action. multiples of the original estimates. The 36 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review number of ideologically interlinked, yet assessments have varied significantly functionally independent IM ‘modules’, from one another. In 2011, based on the too continue to increase. Small towns in interrogation of IM cadre Danish Riyaz, Bihar and Jharkhand alone appear to the agencies concluded that the arrests host at least 12 such modules, as of now. of a large number of cadres have Fourth, how are IM cadres recruited? severely dented the group’s operations This is probably one of the most and badly affected its recruitment and intriguing posers that continues to defy fund-raising drives. Recent assessments, answer. Narratives based on intelligence however, portray the picture of the IM reports point at a vertical split within not just regaining strength within India, the Students Islamic Movement of India but having spread into Pakistan as well (SIMI), with a hyper radical group as Afghanistan. walking out of the extremist A lot has been wrien about the absence organisation and forming the IM. of a culture of strategic writing in the Founding members of IM then went country. That the think tanks are not about using a mix of personal allowed to contribute significantly to connections, countrywide travels and policymaking has been a common persuasive techniques to recruit a refrain among the researchers. However, number of young and not so young men how much field-based research on into the outfit. The laer then were internal security is being done in the charged to seek more cadres. Also roped government and private funded think into the outfit were school dropouts, tanks remains a valid question. As a pey criminals, and history-sheeters result, the void is being filled up by who initially developed contacts with media snippets, which by their very the outfit to provide logistical support nature are combinations of “churning of and then became a permanent part of it. the known” and “feeding of the IM apparently has undergone another obvious” into the mainstream. split after the Batla house encounter in Past statements by leaders of various 2008. These explanations still do not political formations have aempted to solve several riddles. What role has link origin of the IM to an assortment of online radicalisation programme played issues including communal riots, in such recruitment campaigns? How alienation among the Muslims, and even has anti-India propaganda material on India’s diplomatic relations with Israel. the web, uploaded from outside the Some organisations and personalities country, helped swelling the ranks of the have even termed the IM a conception of IM? What is the state of the SIMI faction the Intelligence Bureau or an that stayed behind with the parent imagination of the media. The tragedy organisation and how many of them lies not in the ease with which these over the period of time have made entities have managed to get away with common cause with the IM? What is the such statements, but in the fact that no percentage of Pakistani citizens in the counter narrative to such wild and IM? unsubstantiated presumptions are Finally, has IM weakened over the years available with the country’s informed or has it gathered strength? Official’s tribe of experts.

37 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review IN DEPTH Acting Pricey DEEPAK SHENOY Deepak Shenoy writes at capitalmind.in about the Indian Markets and Money, and runs MarketVision, a financial education company. Riding the rupee tiger

Have we tamed the animal that is the rupee-dollar exchange rate? WenYan King

The arrival of a new RBI governor seems investors have brought in an enormous to have clicked with the markets – amount of money via equity. stocks are up to near-all-time-highs, Three, The oil marketing companies buy while bond markets have remained dollars directly from the RBI, through positive after some scary moves. The “OMC Swaps” that were designed as a Rupee has reversed rapidly, down to the short-term measure. Rs 61 levels from the Rs 68 they had briefly touched. But this is the first The problem? These issues are great reaction to a ‘steroid’ in the form of stop-gap measures, designed to cull short-term measures designed to lift the panic. While they have succeeded, we rupee up. cannot exit from these policies easily. Much of the rupee move has come The Gold import duty introduces a because: problem we have seen to our extreme discomfort before the 90s: smuggling. One, Gold imports have slowed due to The coast was rife with ‘dons’ bringing the extreme import duty that has now in gold undeclared because the regular been applied, and RBI restrictions. channels did not allow them. Some of Two, The RBI has continued to sell them are now funding terror on Indian dollars in the market, and foreign soil, colluding with rogue elements in neighbouring countries. We don’t want

38 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review that again, and the only way out is to won’t keep coming forever – especially curb gold smuggling before it becomes not if the US Fed decides to ‘taper’. The too big. Gold is easy to smuggle – it’s reversal of foreign flows can easily take very valuable in small sizes, and the rupee back to its lows, especially as eventually fake companies will be set up other measures are unwound. to ‘import’ things which cannot be The OMC swap is especially dangerous. measured, like software, so that the Indian oil marketing companies buy $10 dollars – used to pay for the gold – can billion worth of oil every month, and be taken out legally. The only real way this buying of dollars would hit the to stop smuggling is to bring back to markets. And that would put pressure duty to a more reasonable number, like on the rupee, sometimes in a sudden 1 percent. move. The RBI – even before Rajan took RBI restrictions on gold include who can over – put in place a measure where be funded, for how long, and what they OMCs could buy dollars directly from can do with it. This kind of the RBI and return those dollars at a micromanagement is frowned upon in later date after buying it from the large economies, and there has to be a market instead. reversal because such rules only prevent the price of gold from being discovered in India. All it has done is create a While we live on the shortage of physical gold, as demand short-term ‘steroid’ of exists but jewellers can’t easily import gold. high duty and funding But an exit will mean gold imports will restrictions, the resume, and take the rupee down again. inevitable reversal of While we live on the short-term ‘steroid’ of high duty and funding these measures will restrictions, the inevitable reversal of show us we only these measures will show us we only aacked the symptom, not the ailment. attacked the symptom, Foreign investors have bought in large not the ailment. quantities in September, with their total investments at $1.2 billion for the month This exposes the RBI to the (debt + equity). However, this has creditworthiness of the Oil Marketing already tapered off in October – despite Companies, which, to be honest, are not R. 10,000 cr. ($1.6 billion) of investment very creditworthy. They are very high in the equity market, FIIs have sold Rs debt companies, with bureaucratic 10,000 cr. of debt making October “flat”. functioning, and entirely dependent on FIIs have, in fact, sold debt for five government subsidies for their consecutive months. profitability. And then, what if they try to return those dollars and their RBI’s selling of dollars to buy rupees has aempts to buy from the market take kept the rupee under control, but this the rupee down in a big way? selling is bound to stop as the central bank gets spooked when reserves fall The mere rumour that the RBI might beyond a certain level. Foreign investors stop this ‘swap’ to OMCs took the rupee 39 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review down 2 percent and the RBI had to issue The best mechanism to control the a clarification that no, we will continue rupee-dollar equation is to have our administering the steroid, before exports trump imports. The gap is so markets levelled off. wide today that it seems the rupee must There’s one more measure: the FCNR fall much more so that our exports are Swap. RBI allowed banks to get Foreign competitive – even in the last three Currency Deposits, and give those months, the trade gap hasn’t gone down dollars to the RBI (instead of selling substantially. Another method is to them in the market). In exchange they make our currency and markets more had to pay just 3.5 percent on the rupees open, allowing the currency to be received, for three years, after which ‘free’ (even if it means a far higher they would get back the dollars. The exchange rate) – the markets will find idea is to reduce the hedging cost (of their equilibrium. Both these measures dollar-rupee) to 3.5 percent per year, will take a long time – much longer than when markets were pricing it at 6 we have to must reverse our shorter percent per annum. term tactics. This has brought in over $10 billion in The bigger problem is, now that we the 45 days since the announcement. seem to have brought the rupee under Yet, this $10 billion will not directly control, the unwinding of the measures impact the forex market for the rupee. that were designed to be short-term. Since the dollars are being sold directly This is a not just specific to India – even to the RBI, at a rate that that the market the mention of the US Fed slowing its has already determined, the avalanche purchases of US Government Debt, not of dollars is not hiing the market actually doing it but saying they might directly which would have taken the have to, took their bond and equity rupee up (and the dollar down). The markets down in a big way. only impact there is that the RBI can Riding a tiger can be a lot of fun, but if take those dollars and sell them in the you get off, the tiger will kill you. The market by itself – but then it already has question is – have we tamed the animal over $250 billion, which dwarf’s the $10 that is the rupee-dollar exchange rate, or billion this measure has brought in, and are we going to find ourselves back in therefore this measure, for the USD-INR very dangerous territory? equation, is just optics.

40 Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review IN DEPTH

MATTHEW GARCIA Matthew Garcia is a hydrologist and a doctoral student in forestry at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA. Can you forecast a flood? India and the US can look into advanced methods for flood and flash flood predictions.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service – Northeast Region

On the subject of flood forecasting, we accuracy and beer communication of can draw a number of useful parallels the risks and anticipated impacts of between India and the United States of extreme events. Each country watches America. Governments of each country its coastlines intently for the next support weather forecasting efforts that landfalling storm event, with are remarkably similar, even to the atmospheric rivers and hurricanes in the numerical models employed. Each US that can sometimes rival the well- country has a weather radar network known southwest monsoon, Bengal that covers much of the population, cyclones, and northeast monsoon of the especially the urban centres. Each Indian subcontinent. country’s scientific advancement on And yet this year, both countries saw forecasting goals is both supported and devastating floods in other areas known hindered by democratic bureaucracy, to be inherently risky. Mountainous even while citizens and their areas in western US and in northern representatives plead for greater

41! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review India saw extreme rainfall and flooding– from a lumped (watershed) basis to events brought about by the interaction distributed (cell-based) methods, similar of weather systems with complex to the weather models that are also now terrain. Such areas are not often covered employed to drive hydrologic well by weather radar networks in either forecasting. Ongoing research continues country, due to the physical and to provide beer ideas about land cover practical limitations of the radar and its changes, surface streams and systems, their locations, and their their connections, the behaviour of operation. A radar system situated to water in the soil, the impact of warn the residents of Denver, Colorado, urbanisation on runoff and downstream of an approaching storm is not locations, and the particular behaviour necessarily positioned for the of flood-producing storms and runoff in observation of a widespread storm that areas of mountainous terrain. stays in the mountains and valleys of the Where radar observations and surface northern Colorado Front Range. A radar precipitation gauges are lacking, system situated in Delhi is not as useful hydrologic forecasting must rely on the for tracking storms over Uarakhand, at next-best data source: weather models. the edge of its observation range and No local information was available for blocked by numerous high ridge lines in the flood that occurred in Leh in 2010, the Himalaya. but other sources might have proven useful with timely and appropriate For cities subject to application to a flood forecasting and warning effort. While driven by almost floods, such probabilities innumerable observations from around are highly useful in the the world, including satellite observations of the entire globe, the risk-based development local dynamics of a weather system may of response measures and still not be well represented in models the improvement of with coarse resolution. The key here is the accurate infrastructure. representation of both terrain and the land cover types. If the model cannot represent these well, and thus their impacts on winds and clouds and storm Still, weather radar and the combination paerns, then it will not forecast of its data with rain gauges at the accurately the distribution of rainfall surface remain our most promising tools over the area of interest. As the for observation and forecasting of flood monsoon brings a line of storms to the events, even in complex terrain. edge of the Himalaya, or an atmospheric Hydrologic forecasting with these data river streams from the Gulf of Mexico came about in the US during the 1990s toward the Colorado Front Range, the and has continually improved with accuracy of any hydrologic and flood beer radar systems, beer methods for forecast depends critically on knowing obtaining accurate rainfall amounts, and when and where that rain will fall. As improved hydrologic models at the we know well from tracking of surface. These models have evolved

42! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review hurricanes and cyclones, accurate private companies contribute to the weather forecasts provide a lead-time health and safety of the public, as many for flood preparation and warning that do (consider the very public face of The weather radar cannot. The same is true, Weather Channel in the US), their added but presents an even greater challenge, value is clear. However, it is useful to in mountainous regions. remember that they would not exist In locations such as India and the US, without the massive federal resources operational forecasting and public supporting new and ongoing data warnings are a role of the federal collection efforts (consider international government. While subject to the ebb satellite constellations and national and flow of research and operational radar networks) and widespread funding in politicised budget cycles, academic research programs. The activities in both countries can look to beneficial value of weather forecasts far deep reserves of academic research and exceeds any government and private innovation in data collection, analysis, expenditures on generation and and model advancement. In the US, continual improvement of those forecast funding of data collection with taxpayer methods. dollars has meant generally open access For further inspiration, the US and India to data products, with a growing data can look to yet another area where infrastructure and internet-based advanced methods for flood and flash distribution methods that provide free flood prediction are continually datasets and descriptions upon request. developed. A number of recent Freely available datasets (and their publications from Europe, especially counterpart analysis in open-access countries in and around the Alps, publications) are a boon to academic demonstrate creativity in flood research, where innovations are born forecasting methods that has not seemed and often returned to the public or, apparent in academic literature from the sometimes, incorporated as private US. Similar to the process of climate enterprises. modelling for long-term predictions of However, the enterprise model for natural cycles and anthropogenic forecasting stands outside of the impacts, researchers in Swierland have government’s role in ensuring public developed an ensemble method for the health and safety. A recent study in the blending of available radar and surface US accounted weather-related impacts rain gauge data with weather model on the national economy totalling forecasts, in a way that accounts for a hundreds of billions of dollars per year, number of the uncertainties in how with nearly a dozen economic sectors those data and forecasts are determined, relying on government-provided to produce probabilistic river forecasts weather data and services in order to and flood predictions. For cities subject take advantage of good conditions and to floods, such probabilities are highly mitigate losses. There is a growing useful in the risk-based development of private sector industry in weather and response measures and the related services, but these still rely on improvement of infrastructure. the government role in essential data It remains to be seen how individuals collection and dissemination. Where respond to probabilities, however: some

43! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review studies have suggested that a hard track and river stage forecasts have forecast (the river will/won’t flood errors, and the result depends on model today; the cyclone will/won’t strike your accuracy with a measure of risk. The town) may drive immediate preparation question remains, how much risk will and action, but the weather and river you tolerate? forecasts are rarely that specific. Storm

44! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review IN DEPTH PubEcon MUKUL ASHER, TS GOPI RETHINARAJ and MURALI RAMAKRISHNAN Mukul Asher is a professorial fellow at NUS and a counsellor of Takshashila Institution. T.S. Gopi Rethinaraj is a faculty member at the LKY School of Public Policy, NUS. Murali Ramakrishnan is a graduate student at LKY School of Public Policy, NUS. Solar power and energy security Gujarat’s experience suggests that there is considerable merit in solar energy initiatives being integrated with overall energy policy rather than as stand-alone measures.

roxweb

The technical potential of solar energy is reducing other associated costs. enormous. For instance, the amount of Investment in solar energy research and solar energy reaching the earth’s surface policy initiatives worldwide is expected in an hour is roughly equivalent to the to bring down the costs of solar energy world’s total energy consumption in a production to $50-60 per MWhr by 2020, year. However, utilising this large which translate to INR 3 to 4 per resource base has long been constrained kilowa hour. At this threshold, solar by the intermient and diffuse nature of energy could easily compete with most solar energy, and the slow pace of other current energy sources without technological advancement to improve subsidies. efficiency of solar cell modules and

45! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review Economic growth requires percent, biomass 13 percent, and solar corresponding increase in energy power 5 percent respectively. The demand, though the extent of the national solar energy mission increase can be mitigated by sensible “Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar energy conservation measures. As Mission (JNNSM)” launched in 2010 has India’s GDP is projected to increase from an ambitious target of deploying 22 GW around US$1.8 trillion in 2011 to around of grid-connected solar power alone by US$7 trillion by 2025, securing energy 2022 which includes the world’s largest supplies has become an urgent national solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant priority. India imports most (around 82 planned to be built in Rajasthan. The percent) of its oil requirement, and coal 4000 MW “Ultra Mega Green Solar imports have been steadily increasing Power Project” plant will be spread over due to domestic production problems. 23,000 acres and built near Jaipur by a Nearly two fifths of India’s gas supply consortium comprising union and state by 2016 will be imported as expensive government entities. liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with uranium are expected to fuel planned nuclear reactors. As other countries The objective of aggressively pursue energy security, renewable energy policy India will need to compete in a competent and strategic manner. should be to attain It is in the above context that Renewable economically efficient Energy (RE) policies aimed at increasing and strategically prudent the share of hydropower, biomass, solar, and wind acquires significance. Because mix of different energy of the constraints faced by large sources not just currently hydropower (due to social resistance) and biomass (due to competing demand but to meet future needs from food production), recent policy as well. initiatives have mainly focused on expanding solar and wind power To encourage the deployment of solar generation. In particular, the abundance power plants, the union and state of solar radiance across India makes it a governments have incentives in the form feasible component of energy mix for of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) most states. With an average solar and Renewable Purchase Obligation energy potential of about 5 kilowa (RPOs). RECs hope to address the hour per square meter, India has a large imbalance created between availability potential to become a major producer of of RE resources and state level RPO solar power with appropriate policy values fixed by State Energy Regulatory initiatives and commercial incentives. Commissions (SERCs). India’s installed capacity of renewable Gujarat’s contribution in solar power is electricity excluding large hydropower significant with a currently installed grew from 3.9 GW in 2002 to 27.3 GW in capacity of 852 MW, about two thirds of 2013, with wind power accounting for India’s total installed solar power about 66 percent, small hydro 12 capacity. Gujarat hosts an integrated

46! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review solar park, which is currently the second and quality of life of average rural and largest solar photovoltaic (PV) power urban residents. station in the world, with a power Solar Power Initiatives generation capacity of 600 MW covering 3000 acres in Charanka village. With a GEDA introduced its solar power policy successful power supply model, in 2009, a year before the national solar Gujarat’s initiative could offer a possible energy mission was launched. It used a method for integrating renewable and fixed feed tariff mechanism rather than conventional thermal power to provide reverse bidding mechanism. For reliable and uninterrupted power instance, solar photovoltaic (PV) projects supply. commissioned before December 31, 2010 are required to operate with a tariff of Energy Security in Gujarat INR13 per kWh for the first twelve Gujarat has pursued energy security in years, and at INR 3 for the next thirteen an integrated framework, recognising years. This suggests that significant the need to use several energy sources technological efficiencies are anticipated. without being over reliant on anyone of For solar thermal projects, each unit of them. It has also calibrated demand and electricity is priced at INR10 for the first supply coherently, becoming a power 12 years. Subsequently, it would follow surplus state in recent years. This gives the same pricing of solar PV stated the state an additional policy-induced above for the next 13 years. Any projects competitive advantage. commissioned between December 2010 From being a loss making company, the and March 2014 are required to have a Gujarat State Electricity Board (GSEB) tariff that cost INR12 for solar PV has managed to become commercially generated power and INR 9 for power profitable through reorganisation of generated from solar thermal devices power generation companies and during the first 12 years. economically sensible policies. The The nominal prices for following years newly organised Gujarat Energy would remain the same as in the above Development Agency (GEDA) was cases. These tariff rates are fixed by revamped via Jyoti Gram Yojana (JGY) utility companies, and recent dialogues and “Kisan Heet Urja Shakti aim to reduce the tariff, since the plant Yojana” (KHUSY) with investments owners could earn unanticipated profit from state government and other as provisions appear to primarily benefit distribution companies. The producers, particularly arising from transmission and distribution losses lower capital costs and input prices were minimised through “dedicated internationally which were not foreseen. feeder” systems and high voltage Reduction in tariff is a clear indication of distribution systems, drastically impending “grid parity” which is reducing the power leakage and anticipated to be aained in 2016. pilferage. These initiatives have contributed to making the power sector The solar projects are entitled to benefits efficient, reliable and accessible, though under Clean Development Mechanism there is room for improvement. This in (CDM). In addition to the revenues from turn has enhanced business confidence the feed-in-tariff (FIT) available for all solar projects in India, solar energy

47! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review developers in Gujarat also participate in Sarovar canal with a generation capacity CDM and earn carbon credits and of 16 million units. This is expected to generate additional revenue using the enhance transmission and distribution power generated. While the additional efficiencies, enable villagers along the revenue actually obtained is not canal to access electricity, spread energy significant, solar developers will have to awareness and generate skills based share 50 percent of the revenue from employment. CDM to the respective distribution States such as Tamil Nadu have also companies with whom power purchase pursued similar initiatives. Such agreement is signed. More specialised diffusion should be welcome as it companies are needed to reduce benefits the country. transactions costs of CDM benefits, and to deepen and broaden domestic carbon Policy and Implications trading. There is potential for enhancing the share of solar energy in India’s energy mix. There is ample room for In particular, the experimentation, and for taking abundance of solar advantage of the learning curve to make radiance across India solar energy initiatives to progressively yield beer outcomes. Scope for makes it a feasible partnership between the Union and the component of energy mix State governments and between public and private sector organisations in for most states. different areas of solar energy sub-sector is significant, but will require Gujarat’s proclivity to take advantage of appropriate policies, coordination and relatively small but highly visible competence. opportunities to improve energy Gujarat’s experience suggests that there security in general and solar power in is considerable merit in solar energy particular is exemplified by the initiatives being integrated with overall following. The first concerns the energy policy rather than as stand-alone “rooftop solar power policy” for measures. Thus, Gujarat’s reforms of residential and commercial sector. The state electricity organisations, making goal is to install around 60 MW of electricity accessible to agriculture sector rooftop units across the state using and to rural sector, understanding of the advanced metering technologies. The needs of producers and consumers in units are expected to range from one the energy sector have preceded solar kilowa (KW) to 150 KW. Provision of a power initiatives. 40 percent subsidy (INR 32,000) per KW for up to 2 KW, and sales tax exemptions Gujarat has also aempted to take into for procuring equipment for rooftop PV account the substitutability between systems are expected to contribute to the different energy sources, and therefore viability of this initiative. the need for taking into relative prices of solar wind, bio-mass, fossil fuel based The second concerns installation of a 10 sources of energy. Technological changes MW solar power system on Sardar in each of these areas, particularly in

48! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review solar and wind energy, could lower costs different energy sources not just in future and these need to be reflected currently but to meet future needs as in policy design. well. Longer term time horizon and International experience highlights the strategic planning are thus essential.In technological limitations of renewable pursuing the objective of enhancing the energy sources like solar and wind and role of solar energy, the need for price distortions among alternative encouraging globally competitive energy sources brought about by fiscal manufacturing and technology incentives design and political economy capacities for intermediate inputs, and factors overriding economic and for complete solar plants should also be ecological considerations. India should urgently addressed by the policymakers. take these lessons into account in It is not just what India is able to buy pursuing RE policies. internationally but also what it can make and sell in the global market that The objective of renewable energy would be an essential component of its policy should be to aain economically energy security and strategic space. efficient and strategically prudent mix of

49! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review BOOKS

JAYAKRISHNAN NAIR Jayakrishnan Nair blogs at Varnam. Riddle of the Labyrinth Margalit Fox reveals the life and struggles of the people behind the decipherment of Linear B, an unknown language in an unknown script, similar to Indus-Saraswati writing.

Wikipedia

Riddle of the Labyrinth: The Quest to statement that can be made is that the Crack an Ancient Code and the seals played an important part in trade Uncovering of a Lost Civilisation by and permied the identification of either Margalit Fox. traders or their goods. One of the most puzzling unsolved Decipherment of Indus writing is hard mysteries of the ancient world is the because it falls into the most difficult writing system of the Indus-Saraswati category in the relation between script civilisation. There are over 4200 and language. The easiest one is where a inscriptions, on seals, on tablets and on known language is wrien in a known poery; of the 400 signs, only 200 have script, like English wrien using Roman been used more than five times. alphabets. A difficult case is where a Decoding this writing would not only known language is wrien in an reveal details of life during that period, unknown script like when Rongorongo but also put an end to various debates is used to write Rapa Nui. Equally over the identity of the residents of the difficult is the case where a known script Indus region. There has been no dearth is used to write an unknown language of decipherments: many have read like when Greek alphabets are used to proto-Dravidian into the script and write Etruscan. The most difficult one is others Sanskrit. In The Lost River, Michel when the language and script are Danino writes that the only safe unknown and there is no help for the 50! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review decipherer. The Indus writing falls into Some of the tablets were found in the this category. palace complex in boxes with Linear B, the writing found on the island pictograms representing the contents of Crete, belonged to this category as well but was decoded half a century The people who worked after it was discovered. The writing was used by Minoans who flourished during on the decipherment faced the Bronze age following the decline of great challenges, but they the Indus-Saraswati civilisation. Found by an English digger named Arthur had some qualities that Evans, it was named Linear Script Class helped them makes B. The decipherment story of Linear B might have turned into a dry academic progress. discussion on the difference between proto-writing and writing or on if it was Nothing beyond this was known when a memory aid for rituals or just Alice Kober started work on the script in meaningless visual art, but Margalit Fox the United States of America. She was makes it a fascinating tale as the an assistant professor of classics at decipherment is tied to the life of three Brooklyn College, who taught unusual people: a glorified English tomb introductory Latin and Classics during robber, a largely forgoen American the day and worked on deciphering the classicist and a gifted English architect; secrets of the Cretans by night. In it is the human element that adds depth preparation for the work, Kober learned to the mystery. many fields such as archaeology, The three decipherers linguistics, statistics. Since she was not sure about the language of the Linear B The challenges that faced the writing, she spent fifteen years studying decipherers looked insurmountable. languages from Chinese to Akkadian to When Evans found the tablets in 1900, Sanskrit. Without seeing the tablets and there were no computers that could by looking the two hundred inscriptions detect paerns or do statistical analysis. that were available, she worked on them It looked as if we would never find out if methodically and came close to solving the tablets would reveal a Western epic the mystery. Not much credit was given like the Iliad or just bland accounting to her in other books about Linear B records. Though there were no external decipherment and the book tries to clues from a Rosea Stone, some correct that by detailing her information could be gleaned from the contributions. tablets. Evans, for example, figured out the direction of writing and the word She solved many mysteries, which breaks because they were separated by Arthur Evans or other scholars could tick marks. He also figured out the not solve; this included figuring out numerical system used by the Cretan which signs depicted male and female scribes. Some tablets, which had arrow animals as well the sign for boy and girl. signs on them, were found near a chest A major breakthrough for Kober was the filled with arrows; the context gave an discovery that Linear B was inflected, idea of what those tablets represented. which meant that they depended on

51! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review word endings like adding -ed to denote known as the script was used to write past tense and -s to indicate plural. With Greek following the Hellenization of this discovery, she was able to eliminate Cyprus. As those sound values were many languages, which don’t use substituted, the words began to make inflection and focus on languages, sense. By the time he was 30, he had which did. She was also able to figure solved Linear B. out what was known as a bridging Lessons for the Indus Decipherers character, which enabled her to figure out the relative relationship between the The people who worked on the characters in the script. decipherment faced great challenges, but they had some qualities that helped The last person mentioned in the book is them makes progress. They were the one who finally deciphered it. intelligent, had great memory and were Michael Ventris, is a person who would single mindedly focussed on the issue. have been dismissed by modern Margalit Fox explains in detail the scholars as a quack for he was not a tremendous skills that are required to linguist or a classicist or a scholar in any find success in an impossible task like other field of humanities; he worked as decoding an unknown script of an an architect. Like Kober, he too was unknown language. You need rigour of obsessed with Linear B, even publishing the mind, ferocity of determination, a a paper when he was 19. Unlike Kober, deliberate way of working, along with a Ventris had access to larger number of flair for languages. When you are stuck Linear B symbols. As he sorted the with such a problem, where no external characters based on their frequency and help is available and the problem looks position, he found certain characters unsolvable, you have to look closely for appeared at the beginning of the words. sometimes the clues lie in the puzzle He made one major intuitive leap, which itself revealing itself to the careful Alice Kober failed to do, and with that observer. he was able to solve the mystery. There There is a certain orthodoxy in the Indus were codes, which differed only in the politics, which prevents scholars from last character and they were found only considering that an Indo-European in Knossos which meant that those language was spoken in the region. characters represented the name of the Solely based on linguistics, it has been place. Now it was time to figure out argued that Indo-European speakers what the words actually meant. Since arrived in North-West India following Kober had figured out that it was an the decline of the Indus civilisation and inflected language, he discarded hence the language should not even be Etruscan and considered other options considered as a possibility. Thus most like Greek. According to the wisdom at decipherments argue that the language that time, Greek speakers arrived much spoken in Indus Valley was non Indo- later and so this would have been Aryan. Similarly, for decoding Linear B, unacceptable. Ventris, then performed a there was intense speculation on the second leap. During the Iron Age, a language of the tablets, but Greek was writing system called the Cypriot script ruled out because Greek speakers were existed. While the language remained a known to have arrived later. Evans mystery, the sounds of the symbols were thought that the Minoan culture was

52! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review different from the later Greek culture paper writes that Indo-European and there was no relation between the speakers may have reached Mehrgarh two. Alice Kober refused to play that much earlier than 4000 BCE. With such game, refused to give sound values to information, there is a need to break the characters, and firmly said that the away from the orthodoxy. (See “An script had to be analysed based on the earlier date for Indo-Europeans in internal evidence devoid of the Northwest India”) decipherer’s prejudice. She was highly Maybe there is a scholar or an amateur against starting with a preconceived who is as meticulous as Kober or as idea and then trying to prove it. gifted as Ventris to whom the secrets of the Indus would be revealed, but the They revealed the decipherment of Indus script is hard because of the brevity of the seals; the working of the society, average is five symbols. To figure out about the status of anything from seals averaging just five signs is an impossible task. Another various holdings, and possibility that could help is the about the personnel existence of a bilingual inscription in one of the regions with which the Indus who worked there. people traded. For example, there existed an Indus colony in ancient Now even in Indus studies the data is Mesopotamia. This village was located pointing to interesting possibilities. A in an area called Lagash in southwestern 2012 paper by Peter Bellwood, Professor Mesopotamia which had cities like of Archaeology at the School of Girsu, Nina, and a port city and area Archaeology and Anthropology of the called Guabba. Scholars also found a Australian National University suggests reference to a personal seal of a that Indo-European speakers may have Meluhhan (assumed to be a person from been present in Northwest India much the Indus region) translator — Shu- earlier, maybe even two millennia ilishu — who lived in Mesopotamia. earlier than previously assumed. Thus 4000 years back, there was a man According to Bellwood, the urban in Mesopotamia who could speak Harappan civilisation had a large Meluhhan as well as Sumerian or number of Indo-European speakers Akkadian. He could read those Indus alongside the speakers of other tablets. This is not surprising since the languages which may have included Meluhhan merchants would have Dravidian. handled the imports from Meluhha and In a 2010 paper, Professor Jonathan exported Mesopotamian goods to their Mark Kenoyer, who has been excavating homeland. Since the translator worked at Harappa for three decades wrote that with Meluhhans and Mesopotamians, even though the Indus script has not he would need to speak multiple been deciphered, Dravidian, Austro- languages. This also suggests that there Asiatic, Sino-Tibetan and Indo-Aryan could exist a bi-lingual tablet co-existed in the region. Paul Heggarty, somewhere in the region where Shu- a linguist at the Max Planck Institute for ilishu lived. If such a tablet is found, it Evolutionary Anthropology, in a 2013 53! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review could be the Rosea stone which would revealed their food habits, religious solve a 134 year old mystery forever. habits and how they spent their time. It Finally when it was decoded, the Linear revealed the pyramidal structure of the B tablets did not reveal an epic like the Minoan society with elites at the top, Iliad or the Odyssey; they found a record craftsmen and herdsmen below them of crops, goods, animals and gifts and slaves at the boom. The tablets offered to gods. They revealed the were predominantly economic and was working of the society, about the status concerned with keeping track of the of various holdings, and about the goods produced and exchanged. personnel who worked there. They

54! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review BOOKS

MARK SAFRANSKI Mark Safranski is a Senior Analyst at Wikistrat, LLC and is the publisher of a national security and strategy blog, zenpundit.com. Lethal ideas and insurgent memory A review of Neville Bolt’s The Violent Image.

Insurgency is as old man’s first effort at had toppled or set up methodically organised government in the ancient brutal Marxist-Leninist police states. river valleys of the Near East and Asia. With the retreat of the Soviet Union Wherever some men imposed what they from Afghanistan in 1989, the usual reckoned to be civilised order, other paern did not assert itself in the victory men saw only tyranny and took up arms of the Afghan Mujahedeen. Far from in rebellion. The unequal contest of state seizing the state, the anticommunist and insurgent has raged episodically for rebels brought only decades of anarchy three millennia, frequently to the and civil war. This was the onset of an detriment and death of the laer until entropic trend that accelerated with the the second half of the twentieth century. Soviet collapse in 1991 and emergence of With the end of WWII, the scales began globalisation, a perfect storm that led to tip to the side of the guerrilla in a military historian Martin van Creveld to world locked in a Cold War and rocked declare in 1996 “The state…is dying”. by the rapid postwar decline of war- Other irregular groups from the period weary and bankrupt European empires. and later – Hezbollah, HAMAS, Aum Mao ZeDong’s triumphal declaration of Shinrikyo, the Lord’s Resistance Army, the People’s Republic of China in 1949, al Qaida, the Taliban and Mexican after decades of Communist insurgency narco-cartels – resembled less and less and civil war was a harbinger; while the Maoist model of guerrilla warfare or counterinsurgency carried the day in 1970’s PLO and IRA Marxist-inspired Malaya, armies of irregulars defeated nationalistic terrorists. In the 21st Western Great powers in Algeria, century, insurgency was changing its Vietnam and a swath of African character as a form of warfare, most countries. Then once victorious, former dramatically in Iraq, Mexico and rebels as rulers began behaving much Afghanistan– whether COIN experts like the corrupt, autocratic, regimes they were willing to acknowledge it or not.

55! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review One expert who does acknowledge a useful and accessible to the practitioner paradigmatic shift and posits a powerful or policy maker. Particularly for the explanatory model for the behavior of laer, are Bolt’s investigations into what he terms “the new revolutionaries” violent action by modern terrorists as a is Dr Neville Bolt of the War Studies metaphor impacting time (thus, decision Department of King’s College, London cycles) across a multiplicity of and author of The Violent Image: audiences. This capacity for harvesting Insurgent Propaganda and the New strategic effect from terrorist events was Revolutionaries. Taking a constructivist something lacking in the 19thand early view of irregular military conflict as the 20th century followers of Bakunin and means by which insurgents weave an enduring political narrative of mythic Lenin (in his dalliances with terrorism); power and shape historical memory, or in Bolt’s view, the anarchists “failed to Bolt eschews some cherished strategic evoke a coherent understanding in the tenets of realists and Clausewiians. population” or a “sustained message”. The ecology of social media, powered by decentralised, instant communication As a book The Violent platforms and the breakdown of formerly autarkic or regulated polities Image sits at the very under the corrosive effects of capitalist verge of war and politics market expansion, have been, in Bolt’s view, strategic game changers “creating where ideas become room to maneuver” in a new “cognitive weapons and serve as a balespace” for “complex insurgencies”. Violent “Propaganda of the Deed”, once catalyst for turning the nihilistic signature of 19th century grievance into physical Anarchist-terrorist groups like the aggression and violence. People’s Will, has reemerged in the 21stcentury’s continuous media aention Bolt’s emphasis on violent action being environment as a critical tool for less important as a discrete tactical insurgents to compress time and space action than as emotive symbolic through “…a dramatic crisis that must imagery for the nurturance and be provoked”. amplification of grievance and empathic As a book The Violent Image sits at the solidarity within a community feeling very verge of war and politics where itself ‘oppressed’ or “under siege” has a ideas become weapons and serve as a deep political resonance in modern catalyst for turning grievance into conflicts. Indeed, this kind of totemic physical aggression and violence. referencing is used not only by Running two hundred and sixty-nine aggrieved subject populations, such as heavily footnoted pages and an the Palestinians or Belfast Catholics but extensive bibliography that also by states and powerful majorities. demonstrates Bolt’s impressive depth of Slobodon Milosevic’s Serbia made a research. While Bolt at times slips into morbid cult of Serbian defeat by academic style, for the most part his Ooman Turks in the 14th century at the prose is clear, forceful and therefore Field of the Blackbirds, the former

56! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review Apartheid regime of South Africa always work. Radical insurgents can, in honored the Trekboer narrative-national their extremism, badly misread the myth, while Iran’s theocratic system is mood of their base and alienate them rooted ultimately in Iranian Shia being with ill-timed atrocities, as Bolt explains the Shiat ‘Ali – the “Party of Ali” – of the the Real IRA did with its disastrous righteous Caliph Ali, martyred by his Omagh bombing in 1998. Another enemies, succeeded by a Supreme example would be the ghoulish antics of Jurisprudent as a kind of regent who AQI terrorist‘emir’ Abu al-Zarqawi defends the revolutionary community. whose shocking beheading videos in This kind of narrative-making process Iraq earned him a rare public rebuke described by Bolt is very empowering from (then) al Qaida number two leader, for extremists because it works at what Ayman al-Zawahiri. the late military strategist John Boyd The Violent Image is an important book, termed the ‘Mental’ and ‘Moral’ levels of one that explores an area of conflict in war, rising above mere physical action which states are regularly bested by and providing a motivating purpose for their non-state insurgent and terrorist justifying all of the bloodshed and chaos adversaries – strategic communication and sustaining the political will to fight. and narrative construction. It may be This theory explains why tactics that that bureaucratic states are ill suited for otherwise are fundamentally abhorrent, such a game in the first place, that it like suicide bombing or beheading takes, as John Arquilla and David hostage, and are essentially militarily Ronfeldt wrote, “ a network to beat a futile and horrifying to most observers, network”. Bolt himself asks if “whether can nonetheless be considered governments can create flaer, rapid- successful, if they manage to unify or reaction, communication forces” or radicalise the target community into a whether the state is by nature incapable loyal base of support for the insurgents. of doing so? That answer is unclear but Control over the base or the community that the revival of Propaganda of the by wielding the dominant narrative Deed is critical for statesmen and becomes the true objective (or the short generals to understand in crafting term one) rather than military victory strategy is something Neville Bolt has over the enemy. This ploy does not made clear as crystal.

57! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review THE TAKSHASHILA GCPP

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58! Pragati- The Indian National Interest Review