Pertamina Energy Outlook 2015

[email protected]

Darmawan Prasodjo, PhD Chairman of the Board, Petronomist.com President Commissioner, Ametis Energi Nusantara Ekonom Energi, DPP PDI-Perjuangan

1 BB 7562BC1C 2 The Number of Motor Vehicles

90 80 Sepeda Motor 70 Truk 60 Bis Mobil Penumpang 50

Juta 40 30 20 10 0

3 Who are we? (in term of oil and gas power)

4 Outline

Climate Change and Its Policy Implications

Biofuel as a Solution

Masalah Tata Kelola

Conclusion

5 Surface Temperature Increase

6 Sources of Greenhouse Gases

7 Emission and Emission Per Capita

8 Emission and Emission Per Capita 20

18

7 Annual Emission

Emission Per Capita 16 6

14 /year) 5 12

4 10

gigatons ( 3 8 6 2

4 Emission Emission 1 2

0 0 capita) per (tons capita per Emission

8 Renewable Energy

9 The Challenge of Renewable Energy: Cost

Cost and Emission of 14 Different Energy Sources 1200

12 Cost 1000

10 Emission 800 8 600 6 400

4 g/KWH Emission Cost Cents/KWH Cost

2 200

0 0

10 Coal Consumption in the US and

11 Renewable Energy In China

12 Environmental Treaties

– 1997  Washington Declaration – 2007  33rd G8 , – 2007  Vienna Talks, Vienna – 2007  UN Climate Change Conference, Bali– 2007  UN Climate Change Conference, Poland – 2008  UN Secretary General Summit on CC – 2009  UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen - 2009  UN Climate Change Conference, Cancun - 2010  Durban, – 2011  UN Climate Change Conference, Warsaw 2013

13 Indonesian Policy Implication?

What kind of Climate Answer: Serving its Change Policy Indonesia national interest should formulate?

14 Outline

Climate Change and Its Policy Implications

Biofuel as a Solution

Masalah Tata Kelola

Conclusion

15 Energy Security

Foreign v.s Abundant Cheap Domestic

16 Foreign Based v.s Domestic Based

Import Low energy security Domestic High energy security

17 Biofuel Products

Gasoline Bioethanol Substitute

Bio-oil or Kerosene & Pure Fuel Oil Plantation Oil Substitute

Diesel Fuel Biodiesel Substitute

Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute 18 18 Biofuels Production (1,000 BPD) Source: EIA

19 Biofuel Feed stocks

PURE PLANTATION OIL BIODIESEL • Palm Oil • Jatropha Curcas • Kemiri Sunan

BIOETHANOL • Cassava • Sugar Cane • Bagasse • Miscanthus • Corn • Etc.

Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute 20 20 Palm Oil Utilization: 2012

Source: USDA, Recalculated

Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute p21 21 Biodiesel Yield per Hectare from Selected Crops

Source: Lester Brown: Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, 2006; P.34

Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute p22 22 Why Palm Oil?

 Abundance  Generate most fuel yield among potential feed stocks  Expected production cost of Palm Oil decreases the most

Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute p23 23 Climate Change and Energy Policy

To serve our own national interest

To improve energy security

To accelerate growth, to create jobs, eradicate poverty

To take care the environment

24 Outline

Climate Change and Its Policy Implications

Biofuel as a Solution

Masalah Tata Kelola

Conclusion

25 Tiga Aspek Dalam Tata Kelola

Policy

Regulatory

Business

26 Outline

Climate Change Challenge and Its Implications

Biofuel as a Solution

Masalah Tata Kelolaution

Conclusion

27 KESIMPULAN

Lihat Kembali Kebijakan Climate Change (Redifine): To serve our own national interest

Biofuel Development: To improve energy security

Biofuel Development: To accelerate growth, to create jobs, eradicate poverty

Biofuel Development: To take care the environment

28 Thank You

Darmawan Prasodjo, PhD [email protected]

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