Pertamina Energy Outlook 2015
Darmawan Prasodjo, PhD Chairman of the Board, Petronomist.com President Commissioner, Ametis Energi Nusantara Ekonom Energi, DPP PDI-Perjuangan
1 BB 7562BC1C 2 The Number of Motor Vehicles
90 80 Sepeda Motor 70 Truk 60 Bis Mobil Penumpang 50
Juta 40 30 20 10 0
3 Who are we? (in term of oil and gas power)
4 Outline
Climate Change and Its Policy Implications
Biofuel as a Solution
Masalah Tata Kelola
Conclusion
5 Surface Temperature Increase
6 Sources of Greenhouse Gases
7 Emission and Emission Per Capita
8 Emission and Emission Per Capita 20
18
7 Annual Emission
Emission Per Capita 16 6
14 /year) 5 12
4 10
gigatons ( 3 8 6 2
4 Emission Emission 1 2
0 0 capita) per (tons capita per Emission
8 Renewable Energy
9 The Challenge of Renewable Energy: Cost
Cost and Emission of 14 Different Energy Sources 1200
12 Cost 1000
10 Emission 800 8 600 6 400
4 g/KWH Emission Cost Cents/KWH Cost
2 200
0 0
10 Coal Consumption in the US and China
11 Renewable Energy In China
12 Environmental Treaties
Kyoto Protocol – 1997 Washington Declaration – 2007 33rd G8 Summit, Germany – 2007 Vienna Climate Change Talks, Vienna – 2007 UN Climate Change Conference, Bali– 2007 UN Climate Change Conference, Poland – 2008 UN Secretary General Summit on CC – 2009 UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen - 2009 UN Climate Change Conference, Cancun - 2010 Durban, South Africa – 2011 UN Climate Change Conference, Warsaw 2013
13 Indonesian Policy Implication?
What kind of Climate Answer: Serving its Change Policy Indonesia national interest should formulate?
14 Outline
Climate Change and Its Policy Implications
Biofuel as a Solution
Masalah Tata Kelola
Conclusion
15 Energy Security
Foreign v.s Abundant Cheap Domestic
16 Foreign Based v.s Domestic Based
Import Low energy security Domestic High energy security
17 Biofuel Products
Gasoline Bioethanol Substitute
Bio-oil or Kerosene & Pure Fuel Oil Plantation Oil Substitute
Diesel Fuel Biodiesel Substitute
Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute 18 18 Biofuels Production (1,000 BPD) Source: EIA
19 Biofuel Feed stocks
PURE PLANTATION OIL BIODIESEL • Palm Oil • Jatropha Curcas • Kemiri Sunan
BIOETHANOL • Cassava • Sugar Cane • Bagasse • Miscanthus • Corn • Etc.
Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute 20 20 Palm Oil Utilization: 2012
Source: USDA, Recalculated
Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute p21 21 Biodiesel Yield per Hectare from Selected Crops
Source: Lester Brown: Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, 2006; P.34
Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute p22 22 Why Palm Oil?
Abundance Generate most fuel yield among potential feed stocks Expected production cost of Palm Oil decreases the most
Copyright © 2013 Ametis Institute p23 23 Climate Change and Energy Policy
To serve our own national interest
To improve energy security
To accelerate growth, to create jobs, eradicate poverty
To take care the environment
24 Outline
Climate Change and Its Policy Implications
Biofuel as a Solution
Masalah Tata Kelola
Conclusion
25 Tiga Aspek Dalam Tata Kelola
Policy
Regulatory
Business
26 Outline
Climate Change Challenge and Its Implications
Biofuel as a Solution
Masalah Tata Kelolaution
Conclusion
27 KESIMPULAN
Lihat Kembali Kebijakan Climate Change (Redifine): To serve our own national interest
Biofuel Development: To improve energy security
Biofuel Development: To accelerate growth, to create jobs, eradicate poverty
Biofuel Development: To take care the environment
28 Thank You
Darmawan Prasodjo, PhD [email protected]
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