n Project Document SECTION 1: PROJECT IDENTIFICATION 1.1 Project title: Adapting coastal zone management to climate change considering ecosystem and livelihoods 1.2 Project number: PMS: 548 1.3 Project type: FSP 1.4 Trust Fund: LDCF 1.5 Strategic objectives: Climate Change Adaptation Strategic programme for Climate Change Adaptation GEF IV: 1.6 UNEP priority: Climate change Adaptation 1.7 Geographical scope: National 1.8 Mode of execution: External 1.9 Project executing Ministry of Environment and Forests organization: 1.10 Duration of project: 60 months Commencing: 01-08-2014 Completion: 30-08-2019 Validity of project 1.11 Cost of project US % Cost to the LCDF 5,337,500 31% Co financing 12,050,000 69% Grant Ministry of Environment and Forests 3,380,000 19% Ministry of Agriculture 5,000,000 29% UNEP 1,000,000 6% Sub total 9,380,000 54% In kind Ministry of Environment and Forest 2,170,000 12% Ministry of Agriculture 500,000 3% Page 1 Project summary Madagascar is a low income country with a national economy depending essentially on natural resource based sectors including agriculture, mineral extraction, tourism, and fishing/aquaculture. The 2012 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme ranked Madagascar as one of the lowest developed countries coming in at 151 out of a total of 187 countries. The UN has estimated that 71% of Malagasy population are living below the poverty line with the highest rates of poverty found in the coastal regions of the east and south. Rapid population growth (2.8% annually) and rapid urbanization (4% annually) puts pressure on natural resources especially with regard to the coastal zone - as a majority of the population rely heavily on rain fed agriculture and coastline resources. The degrading effects of increasing human activity in the costal zone are exacerbated by current climatic variability, principally sea level rise of 0.2m, warming, and increased frequency in extreme weather-induced events such as tropical storms, floods and droughts. Climate characteristics in Madagascar have changed and will continue to change. In the past five decades there is clear evidence that temperatures have increased with a mean annual temperature of 2.5°C to 3°C, following the global trend. In addition, annual rainfall is projected to decrease, with a marked reduction during the dry season (April and May), and intensely increase during the rainy season (December to February). Moreover, during the past three decades, Madagascar appears to have been affected by frequent occurrence of disastrous climate linked hazards such as tropical storms - there is an increase in frequency and intensity in the Southern Indian Ocean (10 to 20% more intense). These changes are likely to adversely affect natural ecosystems, agriculture and community livelihoods throughout the country, especially in the coastal zones which have been identified by the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) as being one of most vulnerable areas of the country to climate change. In addition, national structures, including communities, local leaders, researchers and government agencies currently lack the capacity to plan for, overcome and withstand the current and anticipated climate change-related threats. This capacity deficit as well as underlying vulnerability to climate change impacts are exacerbated by the following non-climate change-driven causes: i) unsustainable use and management of natural resources; ii) high poverty levels; iii) high population density and rapid urbanization; iv) dependence on rain-fed agriculture and coastal resources; and v) inadequate policy and legislation to address climate change issues. LDCF resources will be used to address the vulnerability of coastal zone of Madagascar to current and expected climate change and the lack of capacity to cope with it. The LDCF project will create adaptive capacity among all social groups, whether government or communities, from the local to the central administration level, while ensuring that the local environment can be protected and managed in a way that allows it to withstand climate change impacts and to provide continued livelihoods. This will include demonstration interventions at pilot sites in four coastal regions – Menabe, Boeny, Antsinanana, and Vatovavy Fitovinany to restore, protect and sustainably manage productive ecosystems, as well as invest in the restoration of coastal barriers and buffers such as sea walls and dykes. The proposed project implements NAPA priorities 1, 6, 7 and 3 as they pertain to the coastal zone, which is identified in the NAPA as a priority area for adaptation action. Project interventions will Page 2 consist of: i) a strengthening of scientific and technical capacity towards adaptation in coastal zones; ii) the implementation of key adaptive measures and technologies in vulnerable sites iii) and the creation of an enabling policy environment towards stronger coastal resilience. This will be realised through the achievement of the following outcomes: 1. Strengthened institutional capacity to address climate change impacts in project sites (Menabe, Boeny, Vatovavy Fitovinany and Atsinanana) 2. Restored and protected coastal zones 3. Climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into national and sectoral development strategies, and in non-state stakeholder actions. This project builds on a baseline of ongoing development programing supported by the Malagasy Government (and its partners), which address the above underlined baseline issues, including in particular in sectors such as Environment, Agriculture, Water and Infrastructure, in and around the four targeted regions. The LDCF project will be implemented by UNEP, and executed by the Ministry of Environment and Forests of Madagascar. Page 3 Table of Contents SECTION 2: BACKGROUND AND SITUATION ANALYSIS (BASESLINE COURSE OF ACTION) .................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Background and context ...................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1. General country context – Geography, demography and economy. ............................................. 7 2.1.2 Country context: Environment and climate..................................................................................... 14 2.1.3 Climate change projections and predicted impacts....................................................................... 20 2.1.4 The problem to be addressed by the project ..................................................................................... 24 2.2 Threats, root causes and barrier analysis ................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1 Root causes .......................................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.2 Preferred response .......................................................................................................................................... 26 2.2.3 Barriers ................................................................................................................................................................. 27 2.3 Global Significance ………………………………………………………………………………………………… ….…29 2.4 Institutional, sectoral and policy context .................................................................................................... 29 2.5 Project focus and site description .................................................................................................................. 33 2.5.1 Menabe Region................................................................................................................................................... 33 2.5.2 Boeny Region ...................................................................................................................................................... 35 2.5.3 Vatovavy Fitovinany Region ......................................................................................................................... 36 2.5.4 Antsinanana Region ......................................................................................................................................... 38 2.6 Stakeholder mapping and analysis ................................................................................................................ 39 2.7 Baseline analysis and gaps ................................................................................................................................ 42 2.8 Linkages with other GEF and Non GEF interventions............................................................................ 52 SECTION 3: INTERVENTION STRATEGY (ALTERNATIVE) ..................................................... 54 3.1 Project rationale, policy conformity and expected global benefits. ................................................. 54 3.1.1 Rationale ............................................................................................................................................................... 54 3.1.2 Policy Conformity ............................................................................................................................................. 54 3.1.3 LDCF Conformity .............................................................................................................................................