Peace and Security

ISSUE 33 Council Report April 2012

Current members of the PSC Council: Angola, Cameroon, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, the Gambia, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Libya, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zimbabwe

Peace and Security Council Protocol IN THIS ISSUE

‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate Early warning issues actively in the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Africa. 1 When required such organizations may be invited to address the Peace and for April 2012 Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Country analysis: Madagascar 2 PSC of the African Union Country analysis: Guinea- 5 Bissaur Country Analysis: Libya 10 Early warning issues for April 2012 PSC Retrospective: Women and children and other During April, events leading up to implications of the EU’s anti-piracy 14 vulnerable groups in armed elections in Mali in the wake of the strategy for Somalia and Puntland, conflicts recent coup, the impact of the Tuareg and the continuing Boko Haram rebellion, ongoing divisions in Libya Important dates to diarise 16 attacks in Nigeria, are among early and simmering resentment in Egypt, warning issues that merit close as well as resurgent conflict between South Sudan and Sudan, the attention. Guinea-Bissau The death of President Malam Bacai Current PSC Chair Sanha came at a time when Guinea- Bissau seemed to have found a Bio data: H.E. Mr Arcanjo Do Nascinento semblance of stability and was Current posts: Angola’s Ambassador to Ethiopia, preparing to consolidate the fragile Permanent Representative to balance among major military and the AU and Chair of the PSC political conflicting interests, domestic and foreign. Persistent internal divisions could be Madagascar aggravated by the ambitions of potential candidates currently vying Against the backdrop of serious reimbursement of taxes deducted to replace Sanha. obstacles in the process of from their salaries since 2005. implementing the Roadmap, the Dissension in army ranks can be a Malagasy military staged protests in recipe for a mutiny threatening the March 2012 to air their grievances regime, particularly when the about poor living and working relationship between the transitional Libya conditions. Their demands included government and the influential Some reports claim that as many as tax-exempt salaries and a military is so delicately poised. 700 militia groups are present in Libya, which is yet to establish a strong and unified army and integrated security institutions. The Livingstone formula NTC chairman, Mustafa Abul Jalil, has repeatedly warned of the possibility ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union of a ‘civil war’ if these armed groups by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds are not brought under control. The information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/PR/(CLX), 5 Cyrenaica declaration has further December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of escalated tensions among interaction between the Council and CSOs. contending parties in Libya.

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 1 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country Analysis SADC-brokered Roadmap of Although Article 20 of the Roadmap, September 2011 ‘To End the Crisis in to which both Ravalomanana and Madagascar,’ the MCO Troika Rajoelina are signatories, provides for MADAGASCAR described Ravalomanana’s action as the ‘unconditional return’ to ‘unfortunate as it had the potential Madagascar of all exiled political Previous AU/PSC Communiqués to further jeopardise further leaders, Rajoelina and the Malagasy and Recommendations implementation of the Roadmap.’ security ‘mandarins’ have threatened In its decision, Assembly/AU/Dec. The troika was equally disappointed to enforce a warrant of arrest issued 408(XVIII), the 18th session of the AU by the Transitional Authority’s against Ravalomanana in absentia in Assembly commended the signing immediate response to close August 2010, should he ever return of the Roadmap in Antananarivo, on Madagascar’s airspace, thereby to his homeland. In the absence of 16 September 2011, to end the crisis forcing the plane carrying amnesty laws covering violent in Madagascar. While acknowledging Ravalomanana to make an airborne crimes, Rajoelina has argued that his the role that the Southern Africa volte-face to Johannesburg, South nemesis, Ravalomanana, must serve Development Community (SADC) Africa, as well as the threats by his sentence of life in prison with played, the Assembly requested the authorities to arrest him if he hard labour for the death of 30 AU Commission to continue to returned to the island nation. The opposition protestors, allegedly support the implementation of the MCO Troika demanded ‘that the killed by his presidential guard in Roadmap and to mobilize the Transitional Authority and all February 2012. Ravalomanana has support of the international stakeholders involved, urgently find denied any wrongdoing, arguing community to this end, including a consensual approach for the that he was tried by the kangaroo through the expeditious opening of implementation of the Roadmap in court of an illegal regime. Following the AU/SADC Liaison Office in its entirety.’ Ravalomanana’s thwarted attempt to return, his party walked out of the Antananarivo. Crisis Escalation Potential fledgling unity government and has The PSC discussed the situation in SADC’s failure to resolutely monitor since boycotted parliament. The Madagascar at its 303 meeting held and guarantee the implementation question of Ravalomanana’s return on 8 December 2011. In the of the fragile Roadmap risks a relapse hangs over the prospects of the communiqué, PSC/PR/COMM.1 into violence in Madagascar. successful implementation of the (CCCIII), issued at that meeting, the Roadmap and future stability in Notwithstanding the Malagasy PSC, among others, highlighted Madagascar. parties’ agreement on 14 October areas of concern when it expressed 2011 about the Framework for the Against the backdrop of serious ‘its intention to lift the sanctions it Implementation of the Roadmap and obstacles in the process of imposed on Madagascar upon receipt the provision for SADC to establish a implementing the Roadmap, the of a report from SADC confirming liaison office to effectively support Malagasy military staged protests in satisfactory progress in the and monitor the implementation of March 2012 to air their grievances implementation process of the the peace process, the regional body about poor living and working Roadmap, in particular its article 20, as has dragged its feet over the issue. conditions. Their demands included well as the establishment of INEC and The inevitable result was the lack of tax-exempt salaries and a the determination of the electoral progress on a number of key issues, reimbursement of taxes deducted calendar.’ including the enactment of amnesty from their salaries since 2005. In a press release dated 26 January legislation, which is critical for the Dissension in army ranks can be a 2012, the Southern African full implementation of the Roadmap. recipe for a mutiny threatening the Development Community (SADC) The controversial events of 21 regime, particularly when the Ministerial Committee of the Organ January 2012, in which former relationship between the transitional (MCO) Troika, comprising South president Marc Ravalomanana was government and the influential Africa as Chair, Tanzania and Zambia, denied entry into Madagascar, military is so delicately poised. expressed concern about the events powerfully demonstrated how key Rajoelina’s regime is heavily surrounding former President Marc outstanding issues can unhinge the dependent on some elements of the Ravalomanana’s attempt to execution of the Roadmap, military to maintain control of the unilaterally enter Madagascar on 21 threatening to plunge the country country. Believing that the January 2012. Noting that there was into chaos once again. The deep- discontent is related to prevailing already an agreed process in which seated personal animosity between social conditions and political rivalry the MCO Troika had undertaken to Ravalomanana and the incumbent, and fearing possible political ensure the safe and secure return of President Andry Rajoelina, manipulation of the situation the all Malagasy political exiles, in line aggravates the situation even transitional authorities have with Article 20 of the landmark further. engaged and made concessions to » 3

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 2 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… the disgruntled soldiers. Following There have been some positive steps an amnesty law. Analysts claim that negotiations, the government in the establishment of Transitional Rajoelina’s designs to foil the return agreed to reduce the income tax for Institutions in line with the SADC to Madagascar of his main political the military from 25 per cent to 4 per Roadmap. In October 2011, Prime rival, Ravalomanana, has cent. It also agreed to reimburse Minister Omer Beriziky was undermined progress on the taxes deducted from soldiers’ salaries appointed by consensus and named amnesty legislation. Indeed, for the first two months of 2012. a 35-member government of Rajoelina allowed the uncomplicated Although it is unclear whether an national unity in November that was return from exile of another former agreement has been reached on the meant to stabilise the crisis-wracked Malagasy president, Didier Ratsiraka, remaining demands it appears that Indian Ocean nation ahead of soon after the inauguration of the the military officers have accepted democratic elections in 2012 as per transitional inclusive government in the proposals made by the the Roadmap. A Transitional November 2011, even though a government. Parliament, comprising two Madagascan court had sentenced chambers, the Transitional Congress him in absentia to 10 years’ hard The government’s capitulation to the and the Higher Transitional Council, labour for corruption. demands of the army has the danger was also established. of leading to a domino effect upon The draft amnesty bill that was other sectors demanding similar Madagascar’s inclusive national- recently rejected by parliament concessions. Madagascar has, unity government has agreed on a excluded violent crimes from the indeed, recently experienced strikes new election management body, the amnesty, thereby effectively in the education sector demanding Independent National Electoral preventing Ravalomanana from improved working conditions. Commission of the Transition (CENIT) returning home free of risk of arrest Madagascar currently does not have or Commission électorale nationale and being eligible to stand in the adequate resources to meet all indépendante pour la transition. presidential poll. The bill is being possible demands of civil servants in CENIT will replace the Independent revised and will be discussed by a view of the continued absence of National Electoral Commission or panel of legal experts before being critical external aid from donors, Commission électorale nationale re-tabled for ratification by particularly the United States and the indépendante (CENI) that was parliament before elections take International Monetary Fund. This unilaterally appointed in March 2010 place. However, the procedural and situation increases the risk of a by interim President Andry Rajoelina. legal delays have resulted in popular uprising in the wake of CENI was blamed for holding a Madagascar missing the 29 February deteriorating economic conditions, controversial and much-maligned 2012 deadline it was given by SADC particularly in an environment referendum to decide on a new to finalise the amnesty legislation already rife with political tension. constitution on 17 November 2010. following the blocking by Rajoelina CENIT comprises 21 members drawn regime of Ravalomanana’s unilateral Key Issues and Internal Dynamics from civil society, the administration attempt to fly home in January 2011. and signatories of the roadmap, Madagascar has experienced Geo-political dynamics protracted political instability since including two former ministers of the early 2009, when tensions between Interior. The establishment of a Pan-African and RECs dynamics credible and acceptable electoral President Marc Ravalomanana and The African Union (AU) suspended commission that will prepare and Andry Rajoelina, the former mayor of Madagascar from the organisation conduct polls that reflect the popular the country’s capital city, on 20 March 2009, following the will of the Malagasy population is Antananarivo, escalated, culminating unconstitutional change of part of the critical reform process in the removal of President government in the island nation. In a concerning Madagascar’s electoral Ravalomanana through a military move that demonstrates the AU’s system as per the SADC Roadmap. coup d’état on 17 March 2009. steadfastness in this regard, the This development has raised hopes Following a two-year period during continental body barred Madagascar for the feasibility of Madagascar which the radicalism of the from voting for the AU Commission’s holding elections this year as opposition parties and the chairperson at the 18th AU Summit required by the Roadmap. A realistic intransigence of the coup leader, in January 2012. At the Summit, the electoral timetable will, however, still Andy Rajoelina, tore apart any efforts AU Assembly urged the Malagasy need to be proposed. The customary at resolving the political crisis parties to spare no effort to bring the election period in Madagascar is emanating from the unconstitutional transition to a successful conclusion. during the dry season that runs from change of government in On its part, the PSC, at its 303rd May to November. Madagascar, SADC succeeded in meeting, examined all the persuading the Malagasy parties to Significantly, however, the Malagasy dimensions of the crisis and the adopt the landmark Roadmap on 16 parties have stumbled in their walk efforts for resolving it. The Council September 2011. towards finalising and agreeing on noted the need for resolving » 4

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 3 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… continuing differences between the finalise the amnesty legislation. The Roadmap, including the consensual main political actors in the peace regional body also undertook to setting of the electoral calendar, with process. Additionally, the PSC urgently set up a liaison office in a view to the holding of free, fair and appealed to the bilateral and Madagascar to facilitate the transparent elections, as well as the multilateral partners of Madagascar implementation of the Roadmap. implementation of the provisions of to urgently provide adequate Article 20 of the Roadmap. Following Following the expiry of the 29 assistance to the Malagasy the Malagasy parties’ adoption of the February deadline for the enactment SADC Roadmap in September 2011, population, particularly with respect of amnesty laws, SADC granted the the European Union (EU) considered to social services, and to envisage Malagasy parties a two-week that conditions were then conducive the resumption of their cooperation extension. In the meantime, SADC to supporting the transition process with the country on the basis of established its Liaison Office to in Madagascar and decided to progress made in the support the implementation of the gradually restore development implementation of the Roadmap, the Roadmap that ten of the eleven cooperation with Madagascar. In a return to constitutional order and political parties in Madagascar press statement dated 28 January the promotion and protection of endorsed and which is ultimately 2012, the spokesperson of Catherine human rights. The Council also expected to lead the Indian Ocean Ashton, the High Representative of encouraged the AU Commission nation to return to constitutional the European Union for Foreign Chairperson to mobilize international normalcy and a democratic Affairs and Security Policy and support from within and outside dispensation. Africa, for the transition process, and Vice-President of the Commission, to speedily dispatch a mission to On 20 March, after handing over the reiterated ‘the EU’s willingness to assess Madagascar’s needs. SADC report on the draft amnesty law give political and financial support to to his ministers for implementation, the ongoing transition process, in Applying the principle of subsidiarity, Andry Rajoelina said: “This close cooperation with the the AU has largely delegated the memorandum will allow the Malagasy international community, provided resolution of the Malagasy political side to advance towards an effective that this process is consensual and deadlock to SADC, although the PSC implementation of the Roadmap, leads to the holding of credible, free remains seized of the matter and the particularly with regards to the and transparent elections allowing a AU continues to work closely with amnesty. This is already a big step to swift return to constitutional order.’ SADC in the effort for resolving the ending the crisis. International Civil Society Dynamics crisis. experts were satisfied with your work.” Malagasy civil society organisations On 21 January 2012, following UN Dynamics Ravalomanana’s failed attempt to continue to actively participate and return to Madagascar after three years As indicated in our earlier reports on continue to play an instrumental role of exile in South Africa, SADC was the crisis in Madagascar, the United for the successful implementation of jolted into action in a bid to bring its Nations (UN) position on the Indian the Roadmap. Following the Roadmap for the Indian Ocean nation Ocean nation has increasingly controversial failed bid by back on track. The regional body’s softened in comparison to that of Ravalomanana to return to MCO Troika that is dealing with SADC and the AU, both having Madagascar, the SADC MCO troika Madagascar’s political hiatus swiftly imposed sanctions on the country. In has called upon civil society and the summoned the Malagasy parties to a May 2011, Rajoelina was invited as media to guard against rumour- meeting in South Africa on 24 Head of State to participate in the 4th mongering, disinformation and January. South African deputy UN Conference on least developed slandering of the Malagasy minister for international relations, countries (LDCs), held in Istanbul in leadership. Under article 13 of the Marius Fransman, President Jacob Turkey. Rajoelina also addressed the Roadmap, Malagasy civil soci­ety is Zuma’s designated Special Envoy on 66th Session of the United Nations expected to observe the elections to Madagascar, chaired the meeting General Assembly on 23 September ensure the Malagasy political actors’ with Rajoelina and Ravalomanana’s 2011. In February 2012, the UN also compliance with the Code of Ethics representatives as well as those from granted Madagascar $150 million for and of the Good Conduct of Elections. a one-year (2012-2013) development the Malagasy transitional inclusive Scenarios government, to add impetus to the programme. Given the above analysis the SADC Roadmap. Wider International Community following could take place: The SADC MCO Troika exhorted the The International Contact Group on Scenario 1: Malagasy stakeholders to implement Madagascar (ICG-M), in its all the outstanding articles of the communiqué of 8 December 2011, The Malagasy parties agree to fully Roadmap and subsequently gave the encouraged the Malagasy parties to implement the Roadmap including parties a 29 February deadline to implement all the provisions of the the enactment of amnesty legislation » 5

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 4 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… and electoral reforms allowing for to constitutional order could persist. urge SADC, the AU Commission the conduct of peaceful and credible Although it may not cause a major and the wider international elections to facilitate the country’s backlash in the short term, this community to redouble their joint return to constitutional normalcy would frustrate the SADC mediation and a democratic dispensation. process, and deepen the political effort to resolutely persuade the uncertainty and deteriorating Malagasy parties to effectively Scenario 2: economic and social conditions in implement the SADC Roadmap to The recent protests by the military the country. the letter. may have an instant domino effect Early Response Options: on the other sectors resulting in the Option 2: flaring up of popular protests in The early response options that the The PSC could reiterate its earlier Madagascar. Such a scenario could PSC could consider include the request to the AU Commission to plunge the country back into following: dispatch a mission to Madagascar, anarchy including a possible military Option 1: not only to assess the current takeover. The AU PSC could declare the situation and needs of the country, Scenario 3: September 2011 Roadmap and its but also to boost the effort to The current deadlock in the Implementation Framework to be unlock the current deadlock and implementation of the Roadmap and the only legitimate mechanism for resume the process of the full the process for returning Madagascar resolving the Malagasy crisis and implementation of the Roadmap.

Country Analysis to the family, Government and remained stable since, despite the people of Guinea-Bissau over controversial subsequent decisions GUINEA-BISSAU President Sanha’s death. of President Sanha to appoint the James Gbeho observed that leaders of the mutiny, General “President Bacai Sanha had Antonio Indjai and Admiral Bubo Na Previous PSC and AU dedicated his entire life to the Tchuta, to top military leadership Communiqués and positions (Army Chief of Staff and Recommendations liberation and nation building of his beloved country, Guinea-Bissau. He Chief of the Navy, respectively), On the passing of Guinea-Bissau’s took office as a democratically much to the dismay and President, Malam Bacai Sanha, on 9 elected President in September 2009 disappointment of the international January 2012, ECOWAS issued a at a most difficult period in the life of community. statement to express its sympathy to the young nation, and provided Nonetheless, President Malam Bacai the citizens of that country. At the exemplary leadership that Sanhá struggled to manage the summit of the regional body held on contributed in no small measure to fragile balance of power between the 16 February 2012, both the the stabilization of the political the country’s political and military Nigerian President, and Chairman of situation.” ECOWAS, and the President of the leadership despite his ill-health. Crisis Escalation Potential Commission paid tribute to the late Those challenges raised concerns president and invited his compatriots Guinea-Bissau, over the past few about his ability to complete his to pay homage and merited tribute years, has oscillated between presidential mandate. Therefore, the to the memory of President Sanha. stability and uncertainty. Merely two official announcement of his death President Goodluck Jonathan urged years into his presidency and after on 3 January 2012 was seen as Guinea-Bissau to continue to decades of political violence, another lost opportunity for the safeguard the peace and stability of President Malam Bacai Sanha still much needed reforms in Guinea- the country and its democratic had to face one of the most serious Bissau. However, the change of institutions by ensuring an orderly challenges to his authority with the leadership could also provide a fresh transition of power that was in mini-coup within the army on 1 April, opportunity to complete the reform keeping with the country’s 2010. The incident had a tremendous process, build on the existing fragile constitutional order and the rule of impact on Guinea-Bissau’s political stability and consensus, provided law. In a separate statement, situation and shaped President that key local and external actors ECOWAS Commission President, Sanha’s political action in a remain focused and are able to James Victor Gbeho, expressed his significant way. Nonetheless, the devise coherent strategies that heartfelt sympathy and condolences’’ political and security situation has clearly identify the main challenges » 6

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 5 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… and priorities for the normalisation Zamora Induta, seen as committed the deployment of a peacekeeping of the socio-economic and political to the long awaited reforms of the mission in Guinea-Bissau. situation in Guinea-Bissau; one of the army and uncompromising in his The official announcement of the most volatile countries in West Africa. opposition to drug trafficking. Rear death of President Malam Bacai It is quite likely that Sanha’s Admiral Bubo na Tchuto was Sanha reignited the struggle for rehabilitated, cleared of all charges in succession and the transitional control among the main political the coup attempt and alleged drug presidential elections are important forces in the country. Sanha finally trafficking, and reappointed as the milestones in Guinea-Bissau’s quest succumbed to his illness, depriving for lasting peace. A key question is Chief of the country’s navy. Similarly, Guine-Bissau of a leader who, in spite whether this transition will usher in Antonio Injai, the mutiny leader, was of his failing personal health and the the much needed stable political confirmed as the new army Chief of structural weaknesses of the national dispensation for the completion of Staff. Therefore, the survival of political leadership, was seen by the necessary reforms in Guinea- Sanha’s regime hinged on this newly many as a unifier and consensus Bissau. found balance among the three builder. His death, once again serves centres of power, the presidency, the Key Issues and Internal Dynamics as a reminder that, since 2000, no military establishment and the office president has been able to complete The events that took place on the 1st of the Prime Minister. his term in office. President Sanha April 2010 served as a sharp Evidently, these developments had was somehow successful in striking a reminder of the cyclical dimensions serious implications for the then deal with the Prime Minister, Carlos of some of the threats still hanging newly elected president, Malam Gomes Jnr and the controversial over the post-conflict reconstruction Bacai Sanha. His move to bow to the army Chief of Staff, Antonio Indjai, to project in Guinea-Bissau. Given the new army leaders was diversely create the semblance of stability fact that the country was still affected by at least two major necessary for the completion of recovering from the double consequences. Firstly, many pending reforms. Although assassinations of President Joao observers pointed to the perpetual superficial, this renewed Bernardo Nino Vieira and his army fragile base of civilian power as understanding between President chief of staff, General Batista Tagme projected by the Sanha-led executive Sanha and the Prime Minister helped na Wai, in the previous year, many in Guinea-Bissau and by extension, to maintain dialogue on some of the observers jumped hurriedly to the the inability of the President to main challenges affecting the conclusion that there was little hope define his authority. Secondly, post-conflict reconstruction of for national peace and stability. The Guinea-Bissau’s international Guinea-Bissau, particularly SSR and expectations raised by the partners adopted a radical stance, the issue of pension funds, and to assassinations of President Vieira and with some, including the European seek to mobilise new partners for General Tagme Na Wai, that political Union, suspending their involvement resolving Guinea-Bissau’s many rivalries would diminish, were to in the country’s security sector challenges. There are now fears and some extent dashed. Yet, carefully reforms (SSR), a key process in the concerns about the transition. analysed, it seemed that the April stabilisation process of the country. Indeed, President Sanha’s demise mutiny and subsequent There were therefore real concerns could either perpetuate the developments provided a platform that the withdrawal of the EU and atmosphere of instability or become for a political dialogue and other major donors would an opportunity to keep the reforms compromise that managed to create compromise the completion of some on track through a peaceful transfer some sense of stability in 2011. key reforms, including SSR, leaving of power. The return in December 2009 of Guinea-Bissau in a constant state of Yet, the foiled attempted coup in Rear-Admiral Jose Americo Bubo na vulnerability and instability. The December 2011, a few days after the Tchuto, accused of being the president himself appeared transfer of the President to the mastermind behind the 2008 foiled desperate when he called for a military hospital of Val-de-Grace in coup, cast a further shadow on regional stabilisation force to be Paris, was seen as the manifestation Guinea-Bissau’s political and military deployed in Guinea-Bissau, sparking of a continued fight to control the future. Therefore, the April mutiny controversies and resistance from reins of power. While it is not clear provided the opportunity for the armed forces. The call by what prompted the coup attempt, generals Bubo na Tchuto andAntonio president Sanha for a stabilisation speculation remains rife that the Injai, primary instigators of the force in Guinea-Bissau responded to event was an attempt to settle scores mutiny, to become prominent and an immediate threat hanging over between the Head of the Navy, Rear influential in the post-Vieira’s his rule and the country’s security. Admiral Bubo Na Tchuto, and the national political landscape. Indeed, Yet, key political and military actors Army Chief of Staff, General Antonio the April mutiny led effectively to the in the country did not share his Indjai, over control of narcotics dismissal of Chief of Staff, General concerns, both fearing and resenting trafficking. It could also have been a » 7

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 6 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… deliberate move to politically reformists within the ranks of the 48.97% of the vote followed by neutralise Bubo Na Tchuto, seen as a party has resurfaced yet again. While Kumba Yala with 23.36% while the potential threat to Antonio Indjai’s Carlos Gomes Junior was endorsed independent candidates from the authority and, more broadly, to by key structures of the party as its PAIGC, Serifo Namadja and Baciro Dia democracy in Guinea-Bissau. It is main candidate, two other won 15.74% and 3.26% respectively. however important to stress that in contenders, Serifo Nhamadjo The run-off slated to take place on 28 the context of Guinea-Bissau, the (interim National Speaker) and Baciro April is already subject to army is not interested in attaining Dia (Defense Minister), broke ranks controversy. The PRS leader and four executive power to exert influence. and stood as independents. other candidates threatened to In contrast, Admiral Bubo Na Tchuto However, Gomes enjoys significant boycott the run-off election, arguing is a naval officer with presidential support among external actors, that existing and anticipated ambitions and he would be unlikely including Angola, a country that has irregularities would compromise the to miss any opportunity to take become a major player in the fairness of the result. control of the country. In the past he national politics of Guinea-Bissau. In Geo-political dynamics was accused of masterminding a addition, the prime minister faces number of nefarious plots and close to 13 other candidates, Pan-African and RECs Dynamics remains on the United States including Kumba Yala, former Opposition by the army, coupled blacklist as a major supporter of drug President of Guinea-Bissau (2000- with the EU’s withdrawal from trafficking in Guinea-Bissau. His 2003) and candidate for the Party for Guinea-Bissau in February 2011, arrest has for now cleared the way Social Renovation (PRS) and forced the Economic Community of for General Antonio Indjai, but the Henrique Rosa (former interim West African States (ECOWAS) and ever-present threat remains of president of Guinea-Bissau, 2003- the Community of Portuguese- further political assassinations, as 2005) among others. While the PRS speaking Countries (CPLP) to occurred in 2009. was expecting to take advantage of streamline their involvement in the For the second time in two years, the divisions within the PAIGC, the security sector reform process. In Guinea-Bissau went to the polls on high price of basic commodities and fact, in August 2010, ECOWAS and 18 March 2012 to elect a new the government’s reluctance to CPLP army chiefs met to work on a president; not because the successfully conclude investigations new roadmap for the SSR as a key incumbent had completed his term into the political assassinations in step in the stabilisation of the and was seeking re-election, but Guinea-Bissau means that the country. In July 2011, the road map because his rule had been proposed timeframe for transitional was adopted. The roadmap did not interrupted this time by elections might not be favourable for however provide any innovation. circumstances beyond national Kumba Yala to try to win back power Instead, it simply drew upon the political and military intrigues. The as President of Guinea-Bissau. existing EU-SSR strategy without death of President Malam Bacai Since the 2008 legislative elections allocating any particular time-frame. Sanha came at a time when Guinea- that saw the PAIGC win 67 out of 100 In substance, Guinea-Bissau’s Bissau seemed to have found a seats in the parliament, the authorities have to re-introduce a semblance of stability and was hegemony of the party has been military hierarchy, with a firm preparing to consolidate the fragile under serious duress, even though it commitment to ridding it of senior balance among major military and has managed to win the previous leaders or commanders allegedly political conflicting interests, presidential elections and is likely to involved in illegal acts of violence or domestic and foreign. Persistent win the upcoming electoral contest. those who have reached retirement internal divisions could be In spite of internal contradictions, age. This specific provision has been aggravated by the ambitions of the PAIGC remains a strong problematic as it has been potential candidates currently vying contender because of the weakness interpreted as specifically targeting to replace Sanha and this could of the opposition parties. The Generals Bubo na Chuto and Antonio affect the African Party for the opposition Party for Social Indjai. Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Renovation (PRS) is still suffering Indeed, the most important Cape Verde or Partido Africano da from the absence of a credible development in Guinea-Bissau has Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde socio-economic and political been the opportunity created by the (PAIGC). alternative to the PAIGC and the lack EU’s decision to withdraw from the Interestingly, Prime Minister Carlos of credibility of its leader, former SSR to enable other potential and Gomes Junior has indicated his president Kumba Yala. The results of actual partners to step in to assist the intention to stand for election and he the first round confirmed the country. Paradoxically, very active is potentially likely to win. The hierarchical order even though some diplomatic initiatives by President antagonism between leaders with irregularities were noticed. Carlos Sanha and Prime Minister Carlos liberation credentials and those Gomes Junior took the lead with Gomes Junior to fill the vacuum, » 8

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 7 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… helped mobilised a variety of In spite of its increased prominence, report of the Secretary-General on partners both in Africa and outside Angola is not the only African developments in Guinea-Bissau and the continent to seek to address the partner providing assistance to on the activities of the United main security and political Guinea-Bissau. The regional Nations Integrated Peacebuilding challenges facing Guinea-Bissau. organisation ECOWAS and the CPLP Office (UNIPO) in October 2011 is Angola, for example, has emerged as have also been instrumental in quite explicit. As far as SSR is one of the most important partner- assuming some degree of concerned, the report indicated that countries in the process. responsibility towards the the first phase of the vetting and stabilisation of Guinea-Bissau. certification process targeting police Following the agreement reached Indeed, to support Angola’s efforts, institutions, which was launched in with political and military actors in ECOWAS committed to disbursing 63 February, had been completed. In September 2010, Angola committed million USD to support the SSR in addition, with technical and financial to sending a team comprising 200 addition to the sending of a Security assistance from the UN, the National members of the Angolan armed Assistance Team (SAT) into the Technical Independent Mixed forces. The main task of the team was country. SAT’s mission was to set up a Commission in charge of the process to provide assistance in restructuring special police unit responsible for the finalized the registration of 3,024 Guinea-Bissau’s national armed protection of key national police officers, including 407 females forces and police over an initial institutions. SAT was also to support and 2,617 male officers, from the period of two years. The team was the national commission of inquiry Public Order Police, immigration also to provide security for state investigating Guinea-Bissau’s many services, the border guard, the institutions such as the executive coups and the double political firefighter department and the branch, including the office of the assassinations of President Bernardo security information service. The prime minister. Vieira and the army chief of staff report also indicated that the Moreover, Angola pledged over 30 Tagme Na Wai. So far, there has been selection process was completed on million USD for SSR, while moving no real progress and the police 29 September. The first model police ahead in renovating essential investigation is likely to be closed. station, in the Bissau suburb of Bairro military barracks. The leading role of Militar, established with the support All Guinea-Bissau’s partners are of the United Nations Integrated Angola in Guinea-Bissau appears to aware that the stability of the be appreciated, and also seems to Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- country hinges on the successful Bissau (UNIOGBIS), was inaugurated have won acceptance by the military completion of SSR. The final on 12 September and is now hierarchy that previously threatened objective is to reduce the size of the operational. Twelve additional model to turn the country upside down in national army to 4000 men. Close to police stations will be built the event of a peacekeeping force in 1300 soldiers, mainly those who throughout Guinea-Bissau with Guinea-Bissau. Notwithstanding the were involved in the liberation support from the Peace building assistance by Angola, some struggle were due to retire in July Fund. Following the attempted observers criticised the lack of 2011. This programme, however, is military coup, the United Nations transparency and public far from being completed. Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, communication about that country’s Nonetheless, the partnership called on Guinea-Bissau’s military involvement and others pointed to between ECOWAS and CPLP still and political leaders to resolve their Luanda’s suspected hidden agenda offers great hope for the completion differences peacefully and show to increase its influence in the Gulf of of the process if the political respect for the rule of law. Guinea through access to Guinea- environment also improves. While Wider International Community Bissau. Regardless of the the EU has played an important role interpretation of Angola’s role in in post-conflict reconstruction, The consultations that took place in Guinea-Bissau, its involvement and mainly in the context of SSR, its Brussels in March 2011 to set the interest in the country also arises decision to withdraw has, at least conditions for the return of the EU to from historical, political, economic currently, made Europe a secondary Guinea-Bissau still need to restore and strategic factors. In addition to a actor in Guinea-Bissau. the EU to the forefront of the SSR shared Portuguese colonial history process. The EU laid a number of UN Dynamics and linguistic heritage, Guinea- conditions. In a press release of Bissau offers some attractive The United Nations is one of the January 2011, the EU stated it was investment opportunities for Angola major actors in the post-conflict necessary to open consultations with in the mines (Bauxite) of Guinea- reconstruction in Guinea-Bissau. The the authorities in power in Guinea- Bissau as well as oil exploration, UN office in Guinea-Bissau took an Bissau in order to examine possible while confirming Angola’s ambition active part in various processes solutions to the crisis and ways to to also play an increasingly including the planning of the re-establish democratic order. The continental role. national conference and the SSR. The main aim of such consultations was » 9

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 8 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… to discuss a list of undertakings with of opportunity created by the April workshops and cultural activities in the authorities, including: mini-coup attempt, albeit areas close to military areas in the controversial, should not be missed. • an end to the illegal detention of capital, Bissau, and the countryside. Vice Admiral Zamora Induta and It is this understanding, the Hopefully, the financial support, others arrested during the events possibility of reform, which informs though insufficient, will help civil of 1 April; the Bretton Woods Institutions in society actors to play an active role in their willingness to continue lending the Post-conflict Reconstruction • the opening and conclusion of their support for the country’s (PCR) process. fully independent investigations economic recovery, which is now into the events that took place Scenario Planning showing some positive signs. In between 1 March 2009 and 1 April In the light of the above September 2011, a mission of the 2010; developments and considerations, International Monetary Fund (IMF) one or a combination of the • the appointment of persons of visited Guinea-Bissau to assess the following scenarios may unfold in integrity not implicated in acts of progress made on structural reforms Guinea-Bissau. violence and unconstitutional undertaken by the government of conduct, to lead Guinea-Bissau’s President, Malam Bacai Sanha. The Scenario 1 armed forces; the acceptance by IMF praised the country for its efforts Free, fair and peaceful elections: the authorities of any experts’ to stabilise its economy and decided opportunity for political stability mission and civil and military to reopen its office in Guinea-Bissau. support that may be proposed by The prospects for growth look Guarantees for holding of a free and ECOWAS/the CPLP and/or other encouraging according to the IMF fair run-off election and dialogue partners to supervise and support and Guinea-Bissau was able to meet resulting in convincing the the reform of the security sector all its benchmarks and quantitative opposition to abandon their and protect political staff; targets by December 2011. threatened withdrawal from the Unfortunately, the events that process would provide an • adoption, enactment and subsequently took place, including opportunity for conducting a free publication of the Security Sector Sanha’s death and the series of and peaceful election. If this Reform legislative package; attempted coups, serve as constant materialises, it will present Guinea- • adoption by the government of reminders of the obstacles that Bissau an opportunity for an operational programme to unexpectedly appear in the way of consolidating political stability, implement the SSR package; and sustainable socio-economic stability. pursuing national reconciliation processes and a successful security • any other undertaking likely to Civil Society Dynamics improve the country’s democratic sector reform programme. In Guinea-Bissau, the activities of civil governance and security-sector Scenario 2 society organisations continue to be reform. undermined by the general socio- Boycott and election-related violence However, it has proven difficult to political environment. In addition to The opposition could follow through have all of these conditions accepted chronic political instability, a lack of its threat of boycotting the election. by Guinea-Bissau’s authorities before resources remains the main This may create conditions for resuming development aid. challenge to their effectiveness. Yet, protest and violence and even the Unfortunately, Guinea-Bissau is still their contribution to peace and staging of a coup by the security viewed by most European countries stability is widely recognized, both in establishment in the name of and the United States through the regard to SSR and the ongoing securing the country from chaos and prism of drug trafficking and other discussions on a national conference political uncertainty. transnational crimes. Therefore, a for reconciliation. In 2011, the office firm stance is needed to break the of the United Nations Development Scenario 3 resistance to reforms. While this is Program (UNDP) in Guinea-Bissau Stagnant political process important, it will also be appropriate signed a $30,000 grant agreement for the EU to join forces with with the Bissau-Guinean Civil Society This scenario could see renewed ECOWAS, CPLP and other major National Movement to assist the stagnation of the political process partners to support the political organization in implementing a with serious implications for SSR. The stabilisation process (democracy and Security Sector Reform (SSR) election of Carlos Gomes Junior as good governance, fight against awareness campaign programme. president might not usher in a new impunity) that could lay the According to the agreement the Civil dispensation if the army and its foundations for the normalisation of Society National Movement was to leadership fail to seize the the current national socio-political carry out several activities, including momentum to diligently complete and economic situation. The window information and awareness regional their required reforms. Current » 10

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 9 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… relations between Carlos and the smooth conduct of the election, the Option 3 army chief of staff, Indjai, are believed PSC could encourage the AU Depending on the outcome of the to be dictated by a mutual realisation Commission, in collaboration with election, the PSC could encourage the that collaboration is essential for ECOWAS and the UN, to facilitate AU Commission to facilitate national stability. If these relations dialogue among the major political deteriorate as a result of divergence actors for holding an inclusive, free coordinated support from ECOWAS, on the pace and modalities of SSR, and transparent election. CPLP, EU, the UN and individual Guinea-Bissau could once again find partner countries for implementing an Option 2 itself in a situation of political inclusive national reconciliation and stagnation involving rivalry and The PSC could request the AU political process and for finalizing SSR intrigue among the political class and Commission, ECOWAS, and the EU to by continuing to provide both political the security establishment with pursue coordinated election- support and financial assistance. The attendant violence and uncertain monitoring activities, as further EU’s role is still crucially important and political outcomes. assurance to key actors that the necessary in this regard. Early Response Options electoral process will be free and fair and that the outcome will genuinely Option 1 reflect the will of the people. While it is Documentation The PSC could urge all political actors true that the conditions of these The Council of the European Union, and the people of Guinea-Bissau to elections do not allow for profound exhibit similar levels of commitment reforms, such reforms should be EU Opens Consultations with and participation for the conduct of considered as essential before the Guinea-Bissau, Press Release PRESSE the run-off election as they did for legislative elections take place in 13/5750/11, January 31, 2011, the first round. To facilitate the November 2012. Brussels, Belgium.

Country Analysis operational soon. The Chairman of Tripoli and Benghazi also denounced the NTC, Mustafa Abul Jalil, pledged the move and claimed that it would to cooperate with the AU and African eventually lead to the disintegration LIBYA countries, but warned that his of the country. Demonstrators government would not tolerate condemned the move, chanted unity Previous PSC and AU intervention. He also emphasised slogans and pounded photos of Communiqués that his government would not Ahmed Zubair al-Senussi, the newly In a press release dated 13 March accept that ‘any African country assigned head of the Cyrenaica 2012, the AU announced a visit by should become an incubator for regional council, with their shoes. those who want to destabilize Libya’. the Chairperson of the AU On 9 March, a counter Commission, Jean Ping, to Libya on Crisis Escalation Potential demonstration supporting the 12 March. During his visit the autonomy of the region, was In a manifestation of longstanding Chairperson met with the chairman attacked by armed men wielding grievances and division among the of the National Transitional Council rifles and knifes, denouncing the different regions and tribes of Libya, (NTC), Mustafa Abul Jalil, and newly established regional council about 3,000 delegates who met in discussed a wide range of issues, and accusing its leaders of Benghazi on 6 March 2012 including peace and security matters separatism. Subsequent reports announced the establishment of a and issues relating to the transition indicated that one person was killed separate regional council to run toward a democratic government. while many were injured. The Cyrenaica, the oil rich eastern Libyan Their discussion also covered supporters of the new regional relations between the AU and a province. The announcement was council stated that the creation of post-Gaddafi Libya in the light of the swiftly followed by outright rejection the council and regional autonomy continental body’s role in supporting by the leadership of the NTC. Head of was necessary to end the the transition process in Libya. The the Council, Mustafa Abul Jalil, called marginalization their region had meeting also saw the formal the move a ‘conspiracy against Libya’ suffered for decades under Gaddafi’s introduction of Mr. Mondher and a ‘betrayal of the revolution,’ rule. Rezugui, the AU Chairperson’s while warning that the NTC would Special Representative to Libya, who defend national unity, using force if Regional and tribal divisions, will head the AU liaison office in necessary. In the days that followed coupled with lawless armed groups Libya that is expected to become the announcement, protesters in and pressing socio-economic » 11

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 10 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… demands, are adding to the coupled with economic neglect, has government’s revived national army significant pressure already placed contributed to the impoverishment and police force are seen to be strong upon the TNC. Deep-rooted internal of the Cyranaican region, particularly enough to take control. The militias divisions and tensions have also when compared with the western also complain that they do not want become increasingly prominent in region of the country, Tripolitania. to integrate with the government Libya, a country that is facing The new Council has demanded a because they say the ministries and numerous security challenges. The regional parliament as well as control armed forces are infiltrated by threat posed by uncontrolled rebel over the police force and the region’s remnants of the Gaddafi regime. groups is becoming more complex courts. The Council envisions a Such complaints discourage other by the day. Some reports claim that regional government and fighters from laying down their arms. administration that will manage the as many as 700 militia groups are Scandals surrounding the medical region’s financial affairs, while present in Libya, which is yet to fund intended for wounded fighters leaving the control of oil revenues, establish a strong and unified army have also created controversy, foreign policy and the national army and integrated security institutions. damaging the image and reputation to the central government in Tripoli. Most of these militias have so far of the NTC. The NTC announced in The Benghazi Council has refused to be disbanded and are September 2011 that it would set emphasized that it has no plans for therefore a threat to national aside $400m (£250m) to fund the future independence or stability. The NTC chairman, Mustafa medical care for wounded fighters in separation of Cyranaica. Abul Jalil, has repeatedly warned of overseas hospitals. Initially this was the possibility of a ‘civil war’ if these The Chairman of the NTC, Mustafa handled by the Global Health armed groups are not brought under Abul Jalil, responded to the Programme, an internationally- control. The Cyrenaica declaration declaration by condemning the supervised scheme. However, by has further escalated tensions move and describing it as ‘unilateral’ October it had been handed over to among contending parties in Libya. and ‘dangerous’ for the unity of Libya. the transitional government. A Key Issues and Internal Dynamics He rejected the move toward number of reports then circulated Cyranaican autonomy in strong alleging instances of abuse of the Following independence in terms by stating that the NTC would fund by people who had used the December 1951, the then Kingdom defend national unity, using force if money for purposes unrelated to the of Libya was divided until 1963 into necessary, and accused some Arab conflict. three autonomous regions: countries of being behind the Various reports now show that some Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan. ‘sedition’. The head of the NTC also of the brigades of former fighters are The decision on 6 March 2012, by called on leaders of Cyrenaica to accused of inflicting horrific abuses tribal leaders and militia groups in engage in a national dialogue. on prisoners in unofficial detention Eastern Libya, called for the creation Cyranaica’s quest for autonomy, centers. Amnesty International has of an autonomous region or self- which did not surprise observers, has stated that there is widespread and governing state within a federal further deepened the mistrust persistent evidence of torture, Libya. However, the newly declared between various political and including prolonged beatings and autonomous region was widely security groups in Libya. condemned as a source of further electric shocks. The NTC which is tasked with division, particularly in the context of The government has been heavily transforming Libya toward territorial aggrandizement and oil. criticized for failing to rein in the democracy is also faced with another The proposed self-governing state various militia groups operating mammoth challenge; that of creating extends beyond historical Cyrenaica, across the country. Leaders of the a united and structured military force includes parts of oil-rich Fezzan in National Transitional Council have under one command. So far, attempts the Gulf of Sirte and stretches from admitted that their government does by the government to persuade rebel the Egyptian border in the east to not have enough power to deal with fighters to hand in their weapons and the city of Sirte in the west. The militias refusing to allow the army join the national army have barely declaration which established an and police to take over vital border succeeded. Members of some rebel ‘Interim Council of Cyrenaica’ also crossings and airports. The Head of groups who decided to lay down appointed Sheikh Ahmed Zoubair the NTC, Mustafa Abul Jalil, said that their arms and join the army, and al-Sanoussi, a cousin of Cyrenaican his government does not have the who have yet to receive a salary, have King Idriss of Libya (1951-1969), as capacity to control borders and force since complained that other groups head of the new body. the rebels to lay down their arms. have not complied. They claim they Cyrenaica accounts for about 25 are now ignored by the government, On 8 March 2012, one of Libya’s most percent of the Libyan population and since abandoning their weapons. powerful militias which had 66 per cent of its oil production. Other fighters are now reluctant to controlled the country’s busiest Political and cultural marginalization, give back their weapons until the airport since the overthrow of » 12

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Gaddafi, relinquished control to the new ruling Council. The transitional Mauritania to hand over one of the government. The decision by the body finds itself in a position where most feared officials of the previous Zintan brigade is seen as a positive it cannot fulfill the rising regime. The Libyan Deputy Prime move to convince other groups to expectations of the Libyan public. In Minister, Mustafa Abu Shagour, flew relinquish control of vital institutions the short term, it will also not be able into Mauritania’s capital, Nouakchott, and key government installations. to disband the myriad of militias that to urge the West African country to However, many still doubt that are destabilizing the country, hand Senussi over, citing what he government forces can ensure the because the NTC cannot guarantee called a “community of interests” security and safety of airports and their fighters the vocational training between the two Arab League other important operations in Libya. they will need if they are to members. Arms and ammunition allegedly confidently resume their respective The insecurity exported by the shipped from Qatar and other Arab roles in Libyan civilian life. Libyan crisis to the country’s and European countries to the rebel The NTC remains a very southern neighbors could rebound groups fighting the Gaddafi regime heterogeneous group, initially with on a much larger scale, to Libya’s in the early days of the uprising are just one shared purpose: to get rid of detriment. Failure to deal effectively still at large, posing a serious security the Gaddafi regime. It lacks the with the consequences of regime challenge to the Libyan population technical capacity, and the stable change in Libya and the subsequent and the state. The ongoing events in political and security environment proliferation of arms in the region Libya signify that the country is at a required to achieve most of its has fuelled rebellion and terrorist high risk of profound and enduring objectives before the holding of the activities in West Africa and the Sahel instability that may lead to another elections tentatively scheduled for region. One such negative outcome civil war if effective measures are not the summer of 2012. Observers are is the Tuareg rebellion in Northern taken in time. calling for the NTC to concentrate on Mali, where the Mouvement National pour la Libération de l’Azawad On 7 March 2012, the Libyan achieving a smaller number of (National Movement for the authorities confirmed the arrest in important initiatives, before Liberation of Azawad) or MNLA Mauritania of Gaddafi’s former relinquishing power to an elected launched an insurgency against the intelligence chief, Abdullah al- government. Problems faced by the government in Bamako which Senussi. Al-Senussi was detained at ruling Council range from human recently resulted in a military coup in Nouakchott airport. Al-Senussi, 63, rights abuses and atrocities Mali. was Gaddafi’s brother-in-law, and has occurring across Libya to the large been described as one of the former number of militias that continue to UN dynamics dictator’s most trusted aides. The harass and abuse the population, as On 14 March 2012, following a UN capture of al-Senussi is considered well as the slow pace of political report which found that both sides significant as he was implicated in a reforms. had committed war crimes during number of crimes, including the Geo-political dynamics: last year’s conflict, and that killing, downing of a French airliner over torture and pillage were continuing, Niger in September, 1989. The Libyan Pan-African and RECs dynamics the UN Secretary-General, Ban government is trying its best to On 12 March, 2012, in a show of Ki-moon, said that Libyan authorities convince Mauritania to handover the solidarity with the government of should address human rights ex intelligence head. The Sudan, the NTC allowed the violations. The Office of the High Government of France and the Sudanese Defence Minister, Abdel- Commissioner for Human Rights has International Criminal Court are also Rahim Mohamed Hussein, to take accused Libyan revolutionary competing to put Senussi on trial. part in a regional conference in the brigades of torturing detainees, In another positive move by the Libyan capital, Tripoli, making it his many of whom are sub-Saharan Government of Libya the country’s first trip abroad since the Africans suspected of fighting for the stock exchange reopened on 15 International Criminal Court (ICC) toppled government of Gaddafi. The March 2012 for the first time since issued an arrest warrant for him UN report also recommended that the fall of Gaddafi’s regime. The earlier in March 2012. The previously the Libyan government should relatively small exchange has 10 poor relations between Libya and further investigate the death of companies listed and on its first day Sudan improved significantly after Gaddafi and human rights violations shares totaling some 3.9bn Libyan the revolution. committed by the revolutionary dinars ($3bn; £2bn) were traded fighters who captured him and Following news of the arrest of members of his entourage. However, the economy still suffers Libya’s former intelligence chief, from a lack of skilled civil servants Abdullah al-Senussi, the Libyan In a statement that perturbed some capable of effectively implementing government started a diplomatic members of the UNSC, the Secretary- the socio-economic programs of the campaign to step up pressure on General also noted that U.N. Human » 13

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Rights Council investigators found In a recent statement, Human Rights army and the failure of talks between that NATO did not deliberately target Watch (HRW) called on the UN the NTC and the Cyrenaican council civilians in Libyan air strikes. The Human Rights Council to condemn to reach an agreement about Secretary-General stated that the serious, ongoing, human rights devolution of power could lead the actions taken by the international violations by militias in Libya. HRW nation toward civil war, thereby suggested the council should also community were consistent with the threatening the territorial integrity of relevant Security Council resolutions. appoint an independent expert to Libya, derail the democratic process Russia had criticized the investigators document the abuses and monitor and destabilize its neighbors. for failing to adequately probe the government’s response. deaths caused by NATO bombs. According to HRW, despite Early Response Options commitments by Libya’s transitional Wider international community government to prevent abuses, the Given the above scenarios the dynamics group has documented ongoing following options could be On 9 March 2012, Russia’s killings, torture, and forced considered: displacements by militias. ambassador to the United Nations, Option 1 Vitaly Churkin, accused Libya of On 19 March 2012, Amnesty The PSC could call for acceleration of establishing “a special training International also called on the center for Syrian revolutionaries North Atlantic Treaty Organization the establishment of the AU liaison who are combating the “legal (NATO) to investigate civilian deaths office in Libya. The Council could government” of President Bashar resulting from its bombing follow developments in Libya closely al-Assad. The ambassador campaign in Libya last year. The and engage with the NTC officials expressed his concern about the human rights group said it had through the AU Chairperson’s Special special training centre for the evidence that 55 civilians, including Representative to Libya. so-called Syrian revolutionaries and 16 children and 14 women, were Option 2 referred to the action as killed in air strikes. NATO said it had unacceptable as it would undermine looked into all credible reports of The PSC, in collaboration with the stability in the Middle East. In civilians being harmed, and would Arab League, could continue to response, the Libyan Prime Minister continue to do so. monitor the situation in Libya and denied the Russian allegations, but said his country would stand with Scenario Building initiate talks between the different the people of Syria opposed to The situation in Libya could take a groups in the Libyan political sphere. President Bashar Assad’s regime. number of courses, based on the The Council could also use the Panel Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib actions taken by the various parties of the Wise of the AU to mediate also said he was unaware of the to the crisis in the coming months. differences with the objective of alleged training facility and that if These are the possible scenarios: creating a safe and stable platform one was operating in Libya it was Scenario 1 for the scheduled elections. doing so without his government’s knowledge. However, he admitted A peaceful resolution of differences Option 3 that the Libyan government would between the central government The PSC could call for an end to the continue to support the “good” and the Cyrenaican council would violation of human rights by help reduce tensions between the cause of Syrian opposition. militants and urge and support various tribal and regional groups. Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Libya. Libya’s relations with countries of An agreement on the issue could the Middle East have improved moderate the strong feelings in the The Council could also call for an since the revolution. Consequently, east and result in a new system independent inquiry concerning the Libyan government is in the approved by both sides. claims of such abuses by Libya’s process of sending former rebels to various armed groups. receive police training in Jordan and Scenario 2 Turkey in an effort to rebuild the Success by the transitional country’s battered security forces. government in disarming the various Documentation The transitional government has brigades and creating a unified army Relevant AU Documents announced plans to send more than would improve security and facilitate 2,500 trainees for the first round of conditions for the peaceful holding Press Release (March 13, 2011) training. Some 10,000 Libyans will of upcoming elections. Chairperson of the AU Commission eventually train in Jordan, with Scenario 3 more than 1,300 going to Turkey, in meets in Tripoli with Chairman of the accordance with signed The continued refusal by armed National Transitional Council (NTC) of agreements. rebels to disarm and join the national Libya.

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 13 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] PSC Retrospective disproportionally affected by The PSC again held its follow- conflicts and violence. Apart up annual open session on from calling for member states women and children in armed WOMEN AND CHILDREN AND to ratify treaties on women and conflict during its 269th OTHER VULNERABLE GROUPS children and report on meeting held on 28 and 29 IN ARMED CONFLICTS measures taken to implement March 2011. Apart from commitments they made for reiterating its earlier calls for At the 223rd meeting held on the protection of the rights of states to take certain steps, 30 March 2010, the PSC women and children, the PSC including ratification of received a briefing note from outlined the various steps that relevant treaties, and its the AU Commission and heard should be taken. concern on the situation of statements made by Femmes women and children in conflict, Africa Solidarité (FAS), the Among others, the PSC asked the PSC’s press statement, PSC/ United Nations Children’s Fund the Chairperson of the AU PR/BR(CCLXIX), welcomed the (UNICEF), the International Commission to take the statement made by Mrs. Committee of the Red Cross necessary steps to ensure the Margot Wallström, the United (ICRC), the United Nations High mainstreaming of gender Nations Special Representative Commission for Refugees aspects into the AU’s efforts on Sexual Violence in Conflict, (UNHCR) and the United aimed at promoting peace and on the need to develop a joint Nations Development Fund for security, including through the AU-UN response to eradicate Women (UNIFEM). conflict-related sexual violence. deployment of a gender expert In a press statement, PSC/PR/ in the AU Liaison Offices/Peace The Council also considered COMM.(CCXXIII), adopted at Support Operations as well as and welcomed the AU the end of the meeting, the the involvement of women in Commission’s efforts for Council expressed its decision peace processes. implementing the measures to devote every year to an open that the Council outlined session on the theme of Following the experience of the during its 2010 meeting. In this women and children and other UN and to give prominence to regard the Council also vulnerable groups in armed the subject, the PSC also importantly expressed its conflicts. The Council is encouraged the Chairperson of support for the decision of the expected to convene this the Commission to appoint a Chairperson of the Commission annual open session during the Special Representative on in appointing a Special month of April. Violence Against Women and Representative on Women, Violence Against Children. This Peace and Security. The press statement of the 23rd is a request to which the AU meeting noted that the theme Commission has yet to respond. A very important outcome of on women and children reflects the 2011 session of the Council and draws attention to the Additionally, the PSC stressed on the theme of women and wider human security the need to address the gender children and other vulnerable dimensions of the AU peace dimension of violence against groups in armed conflicts was and security agenda, as children, to prioritise the express emphasis that the articulated in the Solemn prevention by identifying the Council made on the Declaration on a Common root causes of the importance of developing African Defense and Security vulnerabilities of women and strategies at the continental Policy. The Council also children and to respond with and regional levels, to enable acknowledged that despite the recommendations to mitigate the monitoring of women and existence of a comprehensive risk, while ensuring children in conflict. The best human rights architecture that accountability and ending approach could be for the AU is meant to address issues impunity by prosecuting Commission to submit a report concerning women and perpetrators of violence outlining such monitoring children in situations of armed against women and children at strategies. This has to be conflict, women and children the national and regional accompanied by response continue to be levels. tools. » 15

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The focus on women and First of all, it is crucially and UN offices and missions children in armed conflict is important that the scope of the present in various countries. It very pertinent. Situations of theme, as formulated in the is also important that violence and armed conflict PSC decision, needs to be consideration be given to the continue to have a expanded beyond situations issue of harnessing the work of disproportionate impact on that are properly classified as various AU institutions dealing women and children. In the armed conflicts in international with women and children and post-electoral violence humanitarian law. This would similar programmes present in witnessed in several countries ensure that the challenges the different RECs. and situations of facing women and children in unconstitutional changes of all situations of violence are Importantly for the work of the government, such as Côte adequately addressed. PSC, an area of particular d’Ivoire, Kenya and concern is to develop a Second, the PSC should identify Madagascar, widespread framework for mainstreaming specific areas of intervention gender-based violence took the issue of women and that will substantially place. Women continue to bear children in situations of conflict contribute to addressing the the brunt of the conflict in the into all aspects of the work of challenges facing women and DRC as rape and gender-based the Council on conflict children when and wherever violence continues to be used prevention, management, violence erupts in Africa. One as an instrument of violence. In resolution and post-conflict such area is the participation reconstruction and conflicts in Somalia and those and representation of women involving the Lord’s Resistance development. This is in decision-making processes particularly important because Army, children are forcibly and structures in the context of it would also determine the conscripted. Both in situations conflict prevention, role of the Council in its of armed conflicts and other management, resolution, response to all the other areas cases of violence, women and post-conflict reconstruction of specific intervention as children are among the most and peace building. Another outlined above. vulnerable and the most area would be the prevention disproportionately affected. and fighting of conflict-related To take this theme further on Clearly, the decision of the PSC sexual violence and abduction its agenda, one possible to make this a standing of children and their forcible consideration for the Council thematic issue is conscription into armed would be to proceed beyond commendable. The steps that movements. the convening of the annual the PSC has outlined are Additionally, attention needs to open session on women and important starting points for be given to the utilization of children in conflict situations. mainstreaming this theme in existing mechanisms of early To this end, the PSC could the works of the PSC and in the warning and responses request the AU Commission to structures and processes of the (including through submit an annual report on wider African Peace and investigation and progress made about measures Security Architecture. The PSC rehabilitation) by specifically outlined in previous sessions needs to follow up or, where tailoring them to monitor and and on developments necessary, revise the measures formulate responses to surrounding women and it adopted during 2010 and violence against women and children in conflict situations. 2011. Most importantly, children in conflict. This should Additionally, the PSC could building on its previous include the modalities for request the Chairperson of the decisions, the PSC needs to pay practical operationalization of AU Commission to submit a attention to specific such a mechanism, including report on a framework for dimensions of addressing the through establishing mainstreaming/integrating the challenges facing women and partnerships with local and issue of women and children in children in conflict situations regional civil society situations of conflict into all and to develop mechanisms for organizations, regional dimensions of the work of the doing so. economic communities (RECs) Council.

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