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Guinea-Bissau the Death of President Malam Bacai Current PSC Chair Sanha Came at a Time When Guinea- Bissau Seemed to Have Found a Bio Data: H.E

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Guinea-Bissau the Death of President Malam Bacai Current PSC Chair Sanha Came at a Time When Guinea- Bissau Seemed to Have Found a Bio Data: H.E Peace and Security ISSUE 33 Council Report April 2012 Current members of the PSC Council: Angola, Cameroon, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, the Gambia, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Libya, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zimbabwe Peace and Security Council Protocol IN THIS ISSUE ‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate Early warning issues actively in the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Africa. 1 When required such organizations may be invited to address the Peace and for April 2012 Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Country analysis: Madagascar 2 PSC of the African Union Country analysis: Guinea- 5 Bissaur Country Analysis: Libya 10 Early warning issues for April 2012 PSC Retrospective: Women and children and other During April, events leading up to implications of the EU’s anti-piracy 14 vulnerable groups in armed elections in Mali in the wake of the strategy for Somalia and Puntland, conflicts recent coup, the impact of the Tuareg and the continuing Boko Haram rebellion, ongoing divisions in Libya Important dates to diarise 16 attacks in Nigeria, are among early and simmering resentment in Egypt, warning issues that merit close as well as resurgent conflict between South Sudan and Sudan, the attention. Guinea-Bissau The death of President Malam Bacai Current PSC Chair Sanha came at a time when Guinea- Bissau seemed to have found a Bio data: H.E. Mr Arcanjo Do Nascinento semblance of stability and was Current posts: Angola’s Ambassador to Ethiopia, preparing to consolidate the fragile Permanent Representative to balance among major military and the AU and Chair of the PSC political conflicting interests, domestic and foreign. Persistent internal divisions could be Madagascar aggravated by the ambitions of potential candidates currently vying Against the backdrop of serious reimbursement of taxes deducted to replace Sanha. obstacles in the process of from their salaries since 2005. implementing the Roadmap, the Dissension in army ranks can be a Malagasy military staged protests in recipe for a mutiny threatening the March 2012 to air their grievances regime, particularly when the about poor living and working relationship between the transitional Libya conditions. Their demands included government and the influential Some reports claim that as many as tax-exempt salaries and a military is so delicately poised. 700 militia groups are present in Libya, which is yet to establish a strong and unified army and integrated security institutions. The Livingstone formula NTC chairman, Mustafa Abul Jalil, has repeatedly warned of the possibility ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union of a ‘civil war’ if these armed groups by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds are not brought under control. The information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/PR/(CLX), 5 Cyrenaica declaration has further December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of escalated tensions among interaction between the Council and CSOs. contending parties in Libya. PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 1 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country Analysis SADC-brokered Roadmap of Although Article 20 of the Roadmap, September 2011 ‘To End the Crisis in to which both Ravalomanana and Madagascar,’ the MCO Troika Rajoelina are signatories, provides for MADAGASCAR described Ravalomanana’s action as the ‘unconditional return’ to ‘unfortunate as it had the potential Madagascar of all exiled political Previous AU/PSC Communiqués to further jeopardise further leaders, Rajoelina and the Malagasy and Recommendations implementation of the Roadmap.’ security ‘mandarins’ have threatened In its decision, Assembly/AU/Dec. The troika was equally disappointed to enforce a warrant of arrest issued 408(XVIII), the 18th session of the AU by the Transitional Authority’s against Ravalomanana in absentia in Assembly commended the signing immediate response to close August 2010, should he ever return of the Roadmap in Antananarivo, on Madagascar’s airspace, thereby to his homeland. In the absence of 16 September 2011, to end the crisis forcing the plane carrying amnesty laws covering violent in Madagascar. While acknowledging Ravalomanana to make an airborne crimes, Rajoelina has argued that his the role that the Southern Africa volte-face to Johannesburg, South nemesis, Ravalomanana, must serve Development Community (SADC) Africa, as well as the threats by his sentence of life in prison with played, the Assembly requested the authorities to arrest him if he hard labour for the death of 30 AU Commission to continue to returned to the island nation. The opposition protestors, allegedly support the implementation of the MCO Troika demanded ‘that the killed by his presidential guard in Roadmap and to mobilize the Transitional Authority and all February 2012. Ravalomanana has support of the international stakeholders involved, urgently find denied any wrongdoing, arguing community to this end, including a consensual approach for the that he was tried by the kangaroo through the expeditious opening of implementation of the Roadmap in court of an illegal regime. Following the AU/SADC Liaison Office in its entirety.’ Ravalomanana’s thwarted attempt to return, his party walked out of the Antananarivo. Crisis Escalation Potential fledgling unity government and has The PSC discussed the situation in SADC’s failure to resolutely monitor since boycotted parliament. The Madagascar at its 303 meeting held and guarantee the implementation question of Ravalomanana’s return on 8 December 2011. In the of the fragile Roadmap risks a relapse hangs over the prospects of the communiqué, PSC/PR/COMM.1 into violence in Madagascar. successful implementation of the (CCCIII), issued at that meeting, the Roadmap and future stability in Notwithstanding the Malagasy PSC, among others, highlighted Madagascar. parties’ agreement on 14 October areas of concern when it expressed 2011 about the Framework for the Against the backdrop of serious ‘its intention to lift the sanctions it Implementation of the Roadmap and obstacles in the process of imposed on Madagascar upon receipt the provision for SADC to establish a implementing the Roadmap, the of a report from SADC confirming liaison office to effectively support Malagasy military staged protests in satisfactory progress in the and monitor the implementation of March 2012 to air their grievances implementation process of the the peace process, the regional body about poor living and working Roadmap, in particular its article 20, as has dragged its feet over the issue. conditions. Their demands included well as the establishment of INEC and The inevitable result was the lack of tax-exempt salaries and a the determination of the electoral progress on a number of key issues, reimbursement of taxes deducted calendar.’ including the enactment of amnesty from their salaries since 2005. In a press release dated 26 January legislation, which is critical for the Dissension in army ranks can be a 2012, the Southern African full implementation of the Roadmap. recipe for a mutiny threatening the Development Community (SADC) The controversial events of 21 regime, particularly when the Ministerial Committee of the Organ January 2012, in which former relationship between the transitional (MCO) Troika, comprising South president Marc Ravalomanana was government and the influential Africa as Chair, Tanzania and Zambia, denied entry into Madagascar, military is so delicately poised. expressed concern about the events powerfully demonstrated how key Rajoelina’s regime is heavily surrounding former President Marc outstanding issues can unhinge the dependent on some elements of the Ravalomanana’s attempt to execution of the Roadmap, military to maintain control of the unilaterally enter Madagascar on 21 threatening to plunge the country country. Believing that the January 2012. Noting that there was into chaos once again. The deep- discontent is related to prevailing already an agreed process in which seated personal animosity between social conditions and political rivalry the MCO Troika had undertaken to Ravalomanana and the incumbent, and fearing possible political ensure the safe and secure return of President Andry Rajoelina, manipulation of the situation the all Malagasy political exiles, in line aggravates the situation even transitional authorities have with Article 20 of the landmark further. engaged and made concessions to » 3 PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 2 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… the disgruntled soldiers. Following There have been some positive steps an amnesty law. Analysts claim that negotiations, the government in the establishment of Transitional Rajoelina’s designs to foil the return agreed to reduce the income tax for Institutions in line with the SADC to Madagascar of his main political the military from 25 per cent to 4 per Roadmap. In October 2011, Prime rival, Ravalomanana, has cent. It also agreed to reimburse Minister Omer Beriziky was undermined progress on the taxes deducted from soldiers’ salaries appointed by consensus and named amnesty legislation. Indeed, for the first two months of 2012. a 35-member government of Rajoelina
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