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Weekly Market WEEKLY MARKET MONITOR WEEK 12 / 18 MAR -24 MAR, 2013 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Ö Argentine Cardinal Bergoglio elected POPE FRANCIS Ö SAMSUNG Launches GALAXY S4 Super Phone CONTACTS Ö APPLE IS BEING PHSYCOLOGICALLY CRUSHED BY SAMSUNG Ö Cyprus to Put Forward New Bailout Plan Ibrahim Itani 961‐1‐360460 Ext.786 Ö Fed Approves 14 of 18 BANKS’ CAPITAL PLAN without Conditions [email protected] Ö DUBAI PROPERTY Prices Rise by 20% in 2012 Fouad Abou Hassan Ö GLOBAL SWF assets to Grow to $5.6 Trillion by Year End 961‐1‐360460 Ext.787 Ö Kuwait May Face POWER SHORTAGE Risk Next Year [email protected] Ö EUROZONE ECONOMY is Returning to Growth Joseph Kalaydjian Ö Mexico Starts to Open TELECOM INDUSTRY to Competition 961‐1‐360460 Ext.788 [email protected] Ö European Leaders Will Discuss Rescue Terms for Cyprus Ö Fitch Downgraded ITALIAN RATING to BBB Ö Europe’s TRANSACTION TAX Faces More Opposition Ö Germany’s Blue Chip DAX TOPS 8,000 point Threshold CRUDE TECHNICALS 93.45 RESISTANCE 94.40 95.50 92.20 SUPPORT 91.55 90.85 WTI crude oil couldn't hold above 93.45 horizontal resistances on Friday, which also includes the main descending trend. Price opened the week sharply lower, to break the short term ascending support 92.20. So long as we remain within this range among 93.45‐92.00, GOLD TECHNICALS 1610 RESISTANCE 1618 1625 1585 SUPPORT 1575 1565 Gold started the week sharply higher, with an upside gap above 1600.00 level, but retreated again below it. The metal maintains the short term side‐ways consolidation range, below the key resistance around 1625.00 levels, and above 1555.00 key support. GLOBAL COVERAGE INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE MEPs have rejected the EU BUDGET DEAL agreed by 11‐03‐13 15‐03‐13 leaders last month. The European Parliament said it DOW 14447.29 14539.14 wants more flexibility in the 960 billion Euro spending S&P 500 1556.22 1563.23 plan. Lawmakers argue growth oriented areas such as NASDAQ 3252.87 3258.93 innovation, research and education should be a priority. INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE Parliament president Martin Schulz said: “The figures the 11‐03‐13 15‐03‐13 Council adopted are the figures of 2005, 8 years ago, and NIKKEI 12349.05 12560.95 they should be prolonged to 2020. It is easy to HANGSENG 23090.82 22533.11 understand that in 2020 nobody will fulfill the duties of ASX 200 5146.91 5120.24 the EU with the amount of 2005. EU leaders agreed the first ever real terms cut to the budget, but any deal must INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE be backed by the parliament. France and Italy won 11‐03‐13 15‐03‐13 support for a slightly more growth friendly interpretation DAX 7984.29 8058.37 STOXX 50 2718.71 2744.70 of European Union budget rules at a summit on Thursday FTSE 100 6503.63 6529.41 after French President Francois Holland challenged German driven fiscal austerity. The 27 EU leaders agreed, after debating how to overcome mass unemployment and recession unleashed by three years of the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, to allow greater leeway for public investment when reducing government deficits. The possibilities offered by the EU’s existing fiscal framework to balance productive public investment needs with fiscal discipline objectives can be exploited in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact the summit conclusion said. Exceptions would have to be approved by the executive European Commission and fellow euro zone states, but Hollande and Italy’s Europe minister drew encouragement from what they depicted as a concession. Germany, the leading stickler for fiscal discipline is concerned that any straying from the path of deficit reduction will raise debt burdens and reignite financial market turmoil. Even as Cyprus’s President Nicos Anastasiades addressed the nation on Sunday night, saying savers would be compensated by shares in banks guaranteed by future natural gas revenues, he was said to be working to renegotiate terms of the highly criticized bailout deal. The decision by the euro zone to force bank depositors in CYPRUS to contribute towards a bailout a first in the euro zone debt crisis could hurt other peripheral nations, the euro and the global stock market rally. In his televised address, Anastasiades said he had to accept a tax on bank deposits in return of international aid, or else the island would have faced bankruptcy. In that speech, Anastasiades urged lawmakers to approve the tax in a vote. About 25 lawmakers from the communist rooted AKEL party, the socialist EDEK and the Greens sad they won’t vote for the tax in the 56 seat Cypriot parliament amid deep resentment over a move some called disastrous. If Parliament rejects the tax, that would put the entire aid package in jeopardy. CORPORATE NEWS Many of the biggest banks in the United States got the green light from the Federal Reserve on plan to return profits to shareholders. Two banks, JPMORGAN CHASE (NYSE:JPM) and GOLDMAN SACHS (NYSE:GS), got yellow lights. The Federal Reserve did not object to their plans but is requiring them to submit new plans that will address what the regulators say are weaknesses in their planning processes. ALLY FINANCIAL (NYSE:GMA) and BB&T CORPORATION (NYSE:BBT) had their plans rejected by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve said that fourteen had submitted plans that satisfied its tests. Those banks are American Express Company (NYSE:AXP), Bank Of America Corporation(NYSE:BAC), The Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE:BK), Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF), CITIGROUP(NYSE:C), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Keycorp(NYSE:KEY), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), The PNC Financial Services Group (NYSE:PNC), Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE:RF), State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), Sun Trust Banks (NYSE:STI), U.S Bancorp (NYSE:USB) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Several banks immediately announced their plans to make dividends and buy back shares. Last week the Fed announced the results of its so called STRESS TESTS. The Fed said that 17 of the 18 large banks reviewed had enough capital to withstand a severe recession. The Fed revealed the results of its look at the dividend and buyback plans for each of the 18 banks for the next year. The process, officially known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review or CCAR, is now in its third year. Strong capital levels help ensure that banking organizations have the ability to lend to households and businesses and to continue to meet their financial obligations, even in time of economic difficulty. The Fed evaluates each of the banks’ plans and their planning process. Its determination of whether or not to approve a capital plan depends, in part on whether the bank would have sufficient capital after a proposed dividend or buyback to meet its financial obligations in a severe economic downturn. It also looks at the process the banks uses to arrive at their proposals and how the banks would measure up under the new international bank capital requirements known as Basel 3. The Fed did not object to the capital plans of Goldman outright. But it did require each of them to submit new capital plans by the end of the thirds quarter of this year to address weaknesses in their capital planning processes. This finding of weakness was not something that was widely anticipated for either Goldman or JPMorgan. A failure to remedy the process would be grounds for rejection of the plans. ENERGY & COMMODITIES Gold hovered near $1,590 an ounce on Friday as upbeat U.S labor data added to evidence of an economic recovery that makes safe haven assets like the precious metal less attractive. But prices were headed for a second straight week of gains as some investors remained loyal to gold, counting quantitative easing measures in key economies and lurking risks in the euro zone among reasons to own bullion a hedge against rising inflation outlook and economic distress. It is a global trend that the value of paper money is diminishing, which attracts investors to gold, a hard asset. That is why gold has been resilient recently even though we have seen good data from the United States, strength in equities and a firm in dollar. Data showed the number of American filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a third straight week last week, the latest indication the labor market recovery was gaining traction. That helped lift the Dow Jones industrial average to another record high. Technical analysis suggested spot gold looks neutral in a range of $1575‐$1599 an ounce, and an escape will point a future direction. Gold may have built a bottom on the chart near $1550 an ounce but a break above $1600 would not come easily given that improving economic outlook has driven many investors to seek fortune in the stock market, despite the factors in favor of gold investment. Gold will be affected by what direction US equity markets will take where a sizable correction in US equities will likely prompt funds to get back into gold. FOREIGN EXCHANGE INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE The euro slumped the most in 14 months against 11‐03‐13 15‐03‐13 the dollar after an unprecedented levy on bank EUR:USD 1.2994 1.3074 deposits in Cyprus threatened to throw Europe back GBP:USD 1.4948 1.5111 into crisis. The 17 nation currency dropped to a two USD:JPY 95.96 95.25 week low versus the yen after Cypriot President USD:CHF 0.9517 0.9383 Nicos Anastasiades bowed to demands by regional AUD:USD 1.0212 1.0407 finance ministers to raise 5.8 billion Euros by taking XAU 1578.3 1590.9 a piece of every bank account in Cyprus.
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