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We Ma Mo Eekl Arke Oni Ly Et Ito Or BBAC-PRIVATE BANKING UNIT WEEKLY MARKET MONITOR ISSUE NO.26 / WEEK 33 / 13-19 AUGUST 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS THE WEEK IN BRIEF… .......................................................................... 3 OIL TECHNICALS… ............................................................................... 3 EURO TECHNICALS… ........................................................................... 5 US MARKETS IN BRIEF… ...................................................................... 6 EUROPEAN MARKETS IN BRIEF… ........................................................ 7 ASIAN PACIFIC MARKETS IN BRIEF… ................................................... 8 FOREX, ENERGY & COMMODITIES IN BRIEF…….…………………………………9 IRAQI MARKETS IN BRIEF… ............................................................... 10 ECONOMIC CALENDAR ..................................................................... 11 CONTACTS ........................................................................................ 11 THE WEEK IN BRIEF… LEBANESE BANKS Infected By Gauss Virus Capable of Stealing Financial Data Troika: TALKS WITH GREECE PRODUCTIVE, Agree To Strengthen Policy Efforts Greece’s OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE By S&P, Ratings Affirmed PORTUGUESE BANKS’ borrowing from ECB comes down from record High Saudi Arabia Keeps 5.9 % GROWTH FORECAST for 2012 AMAZON Launches Textbook rental service Iraqi KURDISTAN Resumes Oil Exports German June INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Fell on Construction Output STANDARD CHARTERED Begins Fight back on Iran Allegations Renault Plans For AFRICA AUTO BOOM to Escape Europe Slump TRADE DEFICIT IN U.S Narrowed in June On Cheaper Oil LIBOR SYSTEM has Ceased to Work BoE King Said Standard Chartered Probe Said to REQUIRE UP TO $700 M French Central Bank Projects ANOTHER QUARTER SHRINKAGE YOUNG AMERICANS Avoid Buying Cars and Homes World’s OLDEST SHIPPING COMPANY Stephenson Clarke Closes in Industry Slide MANCHESTER UNITED RAISES $233 MILLION, IPO sold Below Range Hong Kong Economy Weakens as CHINESE SPEND LESS Justice Department END GOLDMAN SACHS PROBE OIL TECHNICALS… PRICE Crude oil resumed the rally from 96.25 77.28 by taking out 92.94 and reached RESISTANCE as high as 94.72 before making a 94.60 temporary top there. But we'll stay bullish as long as 86.92 support holds. 93.70 The decline from 110.55 should have finished at 77.28 already. Current 92.1 rebound from there should extend SUPPORT and above 94.72 will target 61.8% 91.70 retracement of 110.55 to 77.28 at 97.84 and above. 90.30 EURO TECHNICALS… PRICE 1.2510 RESISTANCE The euro is expected to test its first 1.2415 support on 1.2225 though the overbought signal is still in action. Euro is expected to 1.2300 push down to test the 1.2140 support in the near term; failing to do that the correction might continue up to 1.23 and 1.2225 1.2415 resistance levels. SUPPORT 1.2140 1.2035 US MARKETS IN BRIEF… INDEX MARKET OPEN 06-08-12 MARKET CLOSE 10-08-12 DOW 13099.88 13,207.95 S&P 500 1,391.04 1,405.87 NASDAQ 2,978.16 3,020.86 CHINA VERSUS US IN AFRICA: WHO IS WINNING? US State Secretary Hillary Clinton is visiting some of the sub‐Saharan African nations. Clinton also pointed at the fact that her country wanted to allow Africa to optimize the use of its natural resources. She “[…] said the days of having outsiders come and extract the wealth of Africa for themselves leaving nothing or very little behind should be over in the 21st century.” While Clinton did not specify the “outsiders,” in Beijing it was taken as a direct criticism of Chinese African policies and the country was quick to reply. Bilateral trade between China and Africa is more than double the trade between the US and the Dark Continent. In fact, in 2011 Africa‐China bilateral trade reached $166 billion in 2011, an increase of 300 percent over 2006 figures. Washington surely looks to improve its economic relations with Africa, as it seeks to grow the presence of its corporations there. And U.S. interest in African petroleum is only going to increase. But for the moment, the Africans are inclined to accept the lucrative Chinese proposal. $20 B in assistance to the continent, African Talents Program to train 30,000 people in various sectors, building infrastructure partnerships, security pledges. So far the Chinese soft power has proven to be by far more successful in tapping Africa’s resources. The stock market has been climbing but some investors worry it will come tumbling down again. Their fear: Washington’s much dreaded FISCAL CLIFF. In January $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts are set to begin, while a series of tax cuts enacted under President Bush are scheduled to expire. Among the changes that are slated: More than $200 billion in tax cuts enacted during the Bush administration are scheduled to expire, sending tax rates higher. Payroll taxes will rise, immediately lowering wages. They both could cause deep damage to the economy and markets. Investors are nervous because the U.S economy already is in a fragile state, while global growth is even more precarious, especially in Europe. If spending cuts take place and taxes rise, some worry the U.S will be thrown into recession pulling down growth around the world. A messy fight between Democrats, many of who are reluctant to reduce spending, and Republicans, who are reluctant to raise taxes, also could serve to undermine confidence in U.S markets. EUROPEAN MARKETS IN BRIEF… INDEX MARKET OPEN 06-08-12 MARKET CLOSE 10-08-12 STOXX 50 2369.36 2423.22 DAX 6845.88 6944.56 CAC 40 3367.81 3435.62 FTSE 100 5787.28 5847.11 A New York bank regulator’s broadside against STANDARD CHARTERED OVER 250 BILLION TRANSACTIONS TIED TO IRAN left investors and the bank questioning the action, which on Tuesday wiped $17 billion off the bank’s value. The White House signaled its strong interest in the case, saying the U.S government takes alleged violations of economic sanctions extremely seriously. London based Standard Chartered said it has been in talks with U.S authorities over its Iran transactions since early 2010 and said the public accusations by New York came as a shock. The loss of a New York banking license would be a devastating blow for foreign banks, effectively cutting off direct access to the U.S bank market. In order to prevent this bank may pay as much as 700 Million USD. RATING AGENCY STANDARD & POOR’S REVISED GREECE’S OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE, saying the debt ridden euro zone country might be in need of more help from its international creditors. S&P said: “Following delays in implementing budgetary consolidation measures and a worsening Greek economy, we believe Greece is likely to require additional financing for 2012 under the EU/IMF program”. S&P continued: “We are revising the outlook on the long term ratings on Greece to negative, reflecting the possibility of a downgrade if Greece fails to secure the next disbursement of the EU/IMF program. Greece has made progress in finding budget cuts needed to continue its bailout program, but international inspectors said this week that they will return in September to see if the remaining work is done. THE LIBOR SYSTEM AS A MEASURE OF INTERBANK LENDING COSTS HAS CEASED TO WORK since the financial crisis and a fix needs to be found to support existing contracts based on the rate, Bank of England governor Mervyn Kind said on Wednesday. Britain has set out to reform the key interest rate that was rigged by a number of banks, including Barclays in a transatlantic scandal that is threatening to seriously damage London’s reputation as a financial center. A British government review launched last week is looking at the potential for alternative rate setting processes and how to move to a new regime, which may take some time as many long‐ term contracts are pegged to Libor, the London interbank offered rate. ASIAN PACIFIC MARKETS IN BRIEF… INDEX MARKET OPEN 06‐08‐12 MARKET CLOSE 10‐08‐12 NIKKEI 225 8,683.20 8,891.44 HANG SENG 20,052.50 20,136.12 TOPIX 734.20 746.79 The RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA has dampened expectations about further near term rate cuts, saying previous reductions were showing signs of spurring the economy. The bank opted to keep the official cash rate at 3.5 percent for a second month, briefly pushing the Australian dollar above $US1.06, its highest level in four and a half months. RBA governor Glenn Stevens said while it was too early to see the full effect of recent rate cuts, house prices had firmed a little and businesses were borrowing at the fastest pace in several years. He expressed optimism that an economic slowdown in China appeared to have stopped, but renewed the bank’s warning that Europe would remain a significant area of weakness. In a sign that the RBA was paying careful attention to the high dollar, Mr. Stevens highlighted the apparent breakdown in the link between the currency and commodity prices and the weaker global outlook. While CHINA’S ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN POSES short term challenges, the long term outlook remains strong. Citigroup filled the position for the first time with an Asia based banker, underscoring the bank’s focus on the region. Citi’s Asian retail business posted a profit of $2 billion in 2011, accounting for half of the bank regional profit. Citi, which has 50 branches and sub branches in 13 cities in China, said earlier this year it had received regulatory approval to issue credit cards in China, the first non Asia bank to receive permission to do so. About 40 foreign banks have locally incorporated units in China, allowing them to carry out Yuan related business, since 2007 when the first batch of banks were approved. However, they have struggled to expand their businesses accounting for only around 2 percent of the total banking assets in China. SINGAPORE’S ECONOMY SHRANK LESS THAN INITIALLY ESTIMATED last quarter as pharmaceutical output countered declining electronic manufacturing, even as the faltering outlook led the government to cut growth forecasts.
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