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We Ma M Eekl Ark Mon Ly Ket Nito Or WEEKLY MARKET MONITOR WEEK 45 / 05 NOV-11 NOV, 2012 THE WEEK IN BRIEF > Qatar Banks Bulk Up for Infrastructure Boom CONTACTS > Qatar to Finance Sports City Project in Gaza Ibrahim Itani > Dubai’s DP World wins $200m India Port Deal 961‐1‐360460 Ext.786 > $250 Billion Energy Investment Needed in Mideast [email protected] > Emaar Properties Missed Q3 Profit Forecast Fouad Abou Hassan > Iraq Opens Biggest Trade Fairs in 20 Years 961‐1‐360460 Ext.787 fouad_abouhassan@bb ac.com.lb > Iraq’s October Oil Exports Exceeds 2.6 Million BPD > U.S Business Groups Clash over Response to Fiscal Cliff Joseph Kalaydjian 961‐1‐360460 Ext.788 > IMF Gives Nod to ECB Bond Buyback Plan for Greece joseph_kalaydjian@bba c.com.lb > Spain Will Continue Ban on Short Selling For 3 Months > Eurozone Unemployment Broke Record in September > Chinese Factory Output and Orders Increase > BlackRock is Bullish on Commodity Markets > U.S Home Prices Post Biggest Annual Gain in 2 Years > Payrolls in U.S Rise More Than Forecasst GOLD TECHNICALS 1775 1765 1757 SUPPORT 1685 1698 1722 RESISTANCE The metal has sharply broken 1700.00/1698.00 support level, to reach our downside target for Friday's scenario at 1685.00, in fact settled below 1680.00. The sharp selloff and break below 1700.00 suggest we may see further downside pressure over the coming few days, and could extend initially towards the 200‐ days SMA and the 50.0% Fibonacci correctional level at 1658.00 level. DOW JONES TECHNICALS 13000 12850 12575 SUPPORT 13125 13200 13330 RESISTANCE Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the floor of the rising trend, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. The index has support at points 13000 and resistance at points 13280. The index is assessed as technically slightly positive for the short term. GLOBAL COVERAGE A global list of 28 systemically relevant financial INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE 31‐10‐12 02‐11‐12 institutions will be published today in advance of a DOW 13096.46 13093.16 meeting in Mexico of finance officials from the world’s biggest economies. The Nov, 4‐5 meeting of Group of S&P 500 1412.16 1414.20 20 officials will discuss Europe’s plans for banking NASDAQ 2977.23 2982.13 union and the 28 system relevant banks. Germany, INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE which has pressed for measures o shield taxpayers 29‐10‐12 02‐11‐12 from bailing out the biggest global banks, is backing NIKKEI 8929.34 9051.22 efforts by international regulators to extend a push HANG SENG 21511.05 22111.33 against companies deemed too big to fail. The Financial Stability Board last year decided to list 29 so SHANGHAI 2058.94 2117.05 called globally systemic banks that should hold more capital. It’s an important step that G‐20 countries agreed last November that global banks deemed too big to fail will face requirements going forward that this will no longer be paid by the community, by the citizens, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers in Berlin last year. Germany will press G‐20 finance ministers and central bank governors gathering in Mexico City this weekend to tackle financial market regulation as a central theme. Germany is also determined to rebuff any efforts by fellow G‐20 partners to pin the blame for the world’s economic slowdown on the sovereign debt crisis in the 17‐nation euro area. The big focus in Mexico will be on how to underpin global economic growth, while voting reform at the International Monetary Fund, energy and revisiting past commitments to halve budget deficits will also feature on the agenda in Mexico. INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE A few Bank of Japan board members warned that a 29‐10‐12 02‐11‐12 recession in the world’s third largest economy could DAX 7203.16 7363.95 not be ruled out given recent weakness in industrial STOXX 50 2478.84 2533.87 production, minutes of the BOJ’s October 4‐5 policy FTSE 100 5795.10 5868.55 meeting showed. Some members also said that, due to a slowdown in overseas economies, Japan’s economy may not return to a recovery path until after the start of next year, the minutes showed. A representative of the government said at the meeting it was particularly important for the BOJ to produce visible results in achieving its goal of a 1 percent consumer inflation rate. At the meeting, the BOJ kept policy on hold. At a subsequent meeting this week, the central bank increased its asset buying and lending program, its main monetary easing tool, by 11 trillion yen, to 91 trillion yen. It also unveiled a plan to supply banks with unlimited cheap long term funds under a new scheme initially seen siz3d around 15 trillion. CORPORATE NEWS Swiss bank UBS is to slash 10,000 jobs, as it revealed plans to ditch much of the investment banking business that saw it lose 26 billion pounds in the financial crisis and 1.5 billion pounds last year due to an alleged “rogue trader”. The cuts, which are aimed at saving 2.2 billion pounds will be made over three years and will partly focus on removing excess management layers. UBS said that the move was a necessary part, including shedding some of its high risk activities. Chief executive Sergio Ermotti described the decision as a difficult one, particularly in a business such as ours that is all about its people. Fiat SpA (F) Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne approached PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) and General Motors Co. (GM) earlier this month about creating a pan European combination to leapfrog Volkswagen AG (VOW) as the region’s largest automaker. Machionne proposed that Peugeot commit to a combination between Fiat, the French carmaker and GM’s German Opel unit in exchange for stock in the new entity. The CEO also offered to take Opel as part of the deal if he got $5 billion to $7 billion to restructure the unit. The Fiat CEO is looking for a European partner to break the Italian carmaker out of its isolation in the region after GM and Peugeot announced an alliance earlier this year. Complicating any deal with Peugeot is the automaker’s acceptance last week of 7 billion Euros in bond guarantees from the French government, which will require the company to put labor and government representative on its board. Walt Disney Co. has agreed to acquire Lucasfilm for $4.05 billion in a surprise deal that gives the media giant control of the “Star Wars” movie in 2015. The agreement continues Chief Executive Bon Iger’s strategy of growing Disney through huge acquisitions that give the Burbank company control of key pieces of intellectual property. In 2009, Disney acquired Marvel Entertainment for $ 4 billion a deal that resulted in this year’s hit. “The Avengers.” In 2006, Disney acquires “Toy Story” and “Cars” maker Pixar Animation Studios for $7.4 billion. ENERGY & COMMODITIES BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager, downplayed the impact of Europe’s financial woes on commodities markets and said robust Chinese demand and an improving U.S economy will support growth. The U.S has been a big surprise to the upside, not of the order of Chinese GDP growth numbers but it is much better than many people had expected at the beginning of the year, Catherin Raw, co‐ manager of BlackRock’s BGF World Mining Fund told reporters on a media call. The euro zone crisis, at least for the moment seems less of a concern. BlackRock (BLK.N) manages about $4.67 trillion of funds across equity, fixed income, cash management and other sectors, while its BGF fund manages $11 billion of mining stocks. BGF’s biggest holding include Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) (RIO.L), which makes up 9.3 percent of the fund, and BHP Billiton ( BHP.AX)(BLT.L), which makes up 8 percent. Raw said the outlook for copper was promising due to a general decline in the number of copper mine supplying global markets and a recovering housing market in the United States. FOREIGN EXCHANGE Asian currencies had a fourth weekly gain, led by MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE South Korea’s won, after a slew of data suggested 29-10-12 02-10-12 the worst may be over for the global economy. EUR 1.2942 1.2833 Chinese manufacturing expanded for the first time GBP 1.6096 1.6020 in three months as output and new orders climbed. JPY 79.62 80.42 Taiwan released figures this week that showed its CHF 0.9340 0.9400 economy returned to growth in the third quarter, AUD 1.0364 1.0335 while U.S factory production increased at a faster XAU 1711.6 1677.9 pace than forecast in October and consumer XAG 32.00 30.91 confidence reached a four year high. Commerzbank WTI 85.94 84.82 AG raised its forecast for the euro against the dollar through December 2013, saying the projected weakness in the 17‐nation currency will come later than it previously forecast. The European Central Bank’s announcement of unlimited bond purchases has calmed the markets to a wider extent over the past few weeks than we had expected. The Dollar rose for a third day against the yen before a U.S report that economists said will show employers stepped up hiring last month, pointing to a recovery in the world’s biggest economy. IRAQI MARKETS ISX Price Index for Sunday 4/11/2012 121.0 120.5 120.0 119.88 119.50 119.47 119.5 119.66 119.53 119.0 119.12 118.5 118.0 22/10 23/10 24/10 31/10 1/11 4/11 opening highest lowest Closing Trading Company Name Code Price price price Price Volume Bank Sector Bank Of Baghdad BBOB 1.500 1.500 1.490 1.500 104,125,634 Iraqi Islamic Bank BIIB 1.070 1.100 1.070 1.100 3,962,502 Middle East Investment BIME Bank 1.300 1.300 1.290 1.300 169,760,051 Investment Bank of Iraq BIBI 1.010 1.020 1.010 1.020 6,535,636 National Bank Of Iraq BNOI 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 87,914 Credit Bank
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