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GCC Markets Monthly Report

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GCC Markets Monthly Report Investment Strategy & Research GCC Markets Monthly Report February-2020 GCC markets see biggest monthly decline in four years on rising coronavirus cases … GCC markets felt the heat of rising coronavirus cases globally as well as in the region towards the end of February-2020 that pushed most major indices downwards. The MSCI GCC index declined by 7.3% during the month, the biggest decline since January-2016, that further pushed its YTD-2020 decline to 8.8%. Qatar (-9.1%) witnessed the biggest decline during the month, followed by Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul (-7.5%) In this Report... and UAE’s DFM (-4.9%). The GCC monthly sector performance chart showed a broad-based decline during February-2020 with Kuwait …..………………. 2 only the Transportation sector seeing marginal gains during the month on the back of gain in shares of DP Saudi Arabia …...…….. 3 World after the company announced plans to delist. On the other hand, the Utilities sector was one of the main large-cap decliners for the month with most of the stocks in the sector seeing double digit declines. Abu Dhabi …………….. 4 The Materials index was next with a decline of more than 10% led by fall in shares of petrochemical Dubai …...……………….. 5 companies, in addition to a broad-based decline in shares of cement companies in the region. Banking and Qatar …....……………. 6 Telecom stocks also trended downwards resulting in an aggregate sector decline of around 6% for the both the sectors, while the Real Estate sector decline was slightly steeper at around 7% for the month. Bahrain ….………………. 7 The fear of spreading coronavirus has affected most major global markets since the start of the year. Oman …….………………. 8 Almost all the major asset classes declined during February-2020 and were in the red in terms of YTD-2020 returns with only gold, as a safe haven asset, showing gains of around 5% since the start of the year. The MSCI World index declined by 8.6% during the month, bringing YTD-2020 decline to close to 10%. Crude oil was one of the biggest decliners during the month with Brent crude prices hovering near the USD 50/b mark registering a monthly decline of 13% and YTD-2020 decline of almost 25% primarily led by concerns relating to demand outlook in the near term. Index MTD YTD M-Cap Monthly Val P/E (x) P/B (x) GCC Equity Markets Div. Yield Closing Chg% Chg% (USD Bn) Traded (USD M n) TTM TTM Kuwait - Premier Market Index 6,730.2 (4.3%) (3.5%) 116.4 1,728.8 16.2 1.4 3.1% Kuwait - Main Market Index 4,769.3 (3.1%) (2.9%) Kuwait - All Share Index 6,072.1 (4.0%) (3.3%) Saudi Arabia 7,628.3 (7.5%) (9.1%) 2,246.5 19,093.5 17.3 1.9 3.5% Abu Dhabi 4,901.4 (4.9%) (3.4%) 145.7 812.2 12.4 1.3 5.1% Dubai 2,590.0 (7.2%) (6.3%) 98.9 1,058.3 6.6 0.8 4.8% Qatar 9,490.1 (9.1%) (9.0%) 144.5 1,243.6 13.1 1.3 4.1% Bahrain 1,660.5 0.2% 3.1% 25.8 44.8 12.5 0.9 4.6% Oman 4,130.9 1.3% 3.8% 17.5 137.3 8.7 0.7 6.8% Total GCC 2,795.3 24,118.5 15.9 1.7 3.7% 187.9% GCC Markets - Value Traded (USD Bn) 3,500 GCC Market-Cap (USD Bn) 200.0% 45 100.0% 84.0% 40 3,000 80.0% 150.0% 35 2,500 60.0% 30 100.0% 2,000 25 40.0% 1,500 20 20.0% 50.0% 15 -2.5% -7.5% -10.0% 0.0% 1,000 -0.1% 0.6% -1.7% -2.6% -4.0% 10 -15.6% 0.0% -26.0% 500 -20.0% 5 1,050 1,023 1,029 2,962 2,913 2,795 23.9 21.5 21.0 38.6 28.6 24.1 0 -50.0% 0 -40.0% Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 GCC Stock Markets Performance 106 Junaid Ansari 104 Vice President 102 +(965) 2233 6912 100 [email protected] 98 96 Thomas Mathew 94 Assistant Vice President 92 Boursa Kuwait Tadawul ADX DFM +(965) 2233 6914 QE MSM BHB 90 [email protected] 31-Dec-19 6-Jan-20 12-Jan-20 18-Jan-20 24-Jan-20 30-Jan-20 5-Feb-20 11-Feb-20 17-Feb-20 23-Feb-20 29-Feb-20 Source: GCC Stock Exchanges, Kamco Invest Research Investment Strategy & Research, Kamco Invest,15th Floor, Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq, P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, Kuwait Tel.: (+965) 2233 6600 Fax: (+965) 2249 2395 Email: [email protected] Website: www.kamcoinvest.com Investment Strategy & Research Boursa Kuwait Monthly Indicators Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Premier Market Index 5,986.9 6,047.3 6,242.2 6,377.0 6,744.1 6,527.8 6,174.8 6,211.1 6,519.4 6,976.0 7,033.5 6,730.2 Monthly % Change 9.2% 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% 5.8% (3.2%) (5.4%) 0.6% 5.0% 7.0% 0.8% (4.3%) Main Market Index 4,917.3 4,828.8 4,736.6 4,766.5 4,881.6 4,789.4 4,713.8 4,757.9 4,767.0 4,910.7 4,922.3 4,769.3 Monthly % Change 3.0% (1.8%) (1.9%) 0.6% 2.4% (1.9%) (1.6%) 0.9% 0.2% 3.0% 0.2% (3.1%) All Share Market Index 5,617.8 5,630.0 5,731.7 5,832.1 6,116.7 5,941.1 5,678.7 5,717.3 5,928.3 6,282.5 6,325.0 6,072.1 Monthly % Change 7.4% 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 4.9% (2.9%) (4.4%) 0.7% 3.7% 6.0% 0.7% (4.0%) Thomson Reuters Kuwait TRI 240.0 247.0 254.3 259.1 271.9 263.0 249.9 251.6 262.0 276.7 279.4 266.9 Monthly % Change 8.2% 2.9% 2.9% 1.9% 4.9% (3.3%) (5.0%) 0.6% 4.2% 5.6% 1.0% (4.5%) Market Cap (KWD Mn) 32,179 32,369 33,083 33,664 35,399 34,380 32,862 33,081 34,285 36,345 36,613 35,156 P/E (X) - TTM 16.20 15.50 15.60 15.83 16.60 16.20 15.50 15.60 16.10 16.80 16.90 16.20 P/BV (X) - TTM 1.32 1.36 1.41 1.44 1.51 1.44 1.38 1.39 1.44 1.49 1.50 1.44 Dividend Yield (%) 3.68% 3.79% 3.65% 3.59% 3.42% 3.52% 3.69% 3.68% 3.55% 3.35% 3.46% 3.06% Volume (Mn Shares) 3,651.9 3,643.3 2,264.3 2,630.3 4,682.6 2,587.2 3,113.0 2,924.1 2,981.0 4,099.3 4,217.4 3,713.5 Value (KD Mn) 817.2 702.7 617.2 660.2 979.0 490.3 749.9 503.8 514.1 853.5 869.5 522.3 Trades ('000) 120.4 141.8 112.9 108.1 180.3 108.5 139.2 122.7 122.4 176.1 160.8 139.4 Source: Boursa Kuwait, Kamco Invest Research Kuwaiti benchmarks trended downward during February-2020 in line with most other GCC and global markets as the number of coronavirus cases increased in the country towards the end of the month. All the three benchmarks declined during the month with the Premier Market index seeing the biggest drop of 4.3% followed by the Main Market index that saw a decline of 3.1%. The net impact on the All Share Market Index was a fall of 4.0%. Declines during the month also wiped off the marginal gains recorded by Kuwaiti indices during the previous month resulting in a YTD-2020 decline of 3.3% for the All Share Market Index and 3.5% for the Premier Market Index. As the market prepares to enter the MSCI Emerging Market Index at the end of March-2020, Boursa Kuwait also introduced the Main 50 Index during the month that includes most actively traded stocks in the Main Market. The new index aims to highlight opportunities outside the large-cap Premier Market space and would also help in addressing investor concerns relating to liquidity of trades in stocks in the Main market. The sector performance chart also highlighted the broader decline in the market with merely two indices, Oil & Gas and Insurance, showing marginal gains during the month. The two indices have also outperformed the rest of the market in terms of YTD-2020 performance with gains of 5.5% for the Oil & Gas index and 2.5% for the Insurance index while the rest of the sector indices declined. The monthly gain in the Oil & Gas index was led by gain in shares of NAPESCO and Burgan Co.
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