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We Ma M Eekl Ark Mon Ly Ket Nito Or WEEKLY MARKET MONITOR WEEK 28 / 08-14 JULY, 2013 THE WEEK IN BRIEF ¾ Banks Charged with Blocking CDS Market ¾ Croatia Becomes 28th EU Member CONTACTS ¾ Reserve Bank of Australia Keeps Rates at 2.75% Ibrahim Itani ¾ Report of U.S Spying Trade Talks with EU in Doubt 961‐1‐360460 Ext.786 [email protected] ¾ Orders to U.S Factories Rise on Demand for Machinery ¾ US Oil Tops $100 for First Time Since September 2012 Fouad Abou Hassan 961‐1‐360460 Ext.787 ¾ Eurozone Unemployment Climbs to 12.1% [email protected] ¾ Brazil Posts Biggest Trade Deficit Since 1995 Joseph Kalaydjian ¾ Egypt Economy Nears Collapse as Protesters Fill Streets 961‐1‐360460 Ext.788 ¾ Portuguese Bond Yield Soars [email protected] ¾ ECB Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged at 0.5% ¾ Bank of England Maintains Benchmark Interest Rate at 0.5% ¾ Trade Deficit in U.S Unexpectedly Jumps as Imports Near Record GOLD TECHNICALS 1275 Resistance 1295 1317 1180 1155 Support 1120 After printing the significant low of 1180, the metal has showed some kind of consolidation during the previous week but it closed negatively on Friday . The clear bearish trend started at 1796.00 is still in progress. Stochastic remains negative despite approaching oversold regions. Eyes on 1120.00 to be a target for the bearishness EURO TECHNICALS 1.2890 Resistance 1.2950 1.3000 1.2740 1.2680 Support 1.2650 The EUR/USD ended Friday at 1.2831 after comments from Mr. Draghi of the ECB sent the euro tumbling and then a strong jobs release in the US sent the USD climbing. The euro fell as low as $1.2805 against the dollar, its weakest since May 20. It was last trading at $1.2829, down 0.7 percent. The euro fell against the dollar for the third straight week with a 1.4 percent decline in the week. GLOBAL COVERAGE INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE Investment banks’ 20 year grip over credit insurance 01‐07‐13 05‐07‐13 markets has come under regulatory assault as DOW 14974.96 15135.84 Brussels served charges against 13 banks for allegedly S&P 500 1614.96 1631.89 conspiring to block exchanges from challenging their NASDAQ 3434.49 3479.38 business model. The formal European Commission charge sheet alleges collusion to ensure the INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE insurance like contracts remained an over the 01‐07‐13 05‐07‐13 counter (OTC) product preserving the banks’ role as NIKKEI 13852.5 14309.97 middlemen. Investigators claim the banks from 2006 HANGSENG 20658.65 20854.67 to 2009 protected their indispensable position in the $25tn global market through control of a trade body ASX 200 4710.29 4841.75 and information provider, which vetted whether new exchanges should be licensed. CREDIT DEFAULT INDEX MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE SWAPS provide insurance against a default on bond 01‐07‐13 05‐07‐13 payments and are used by investors to manage risk DAX 7983.92 7806.0 and bet on creditworthiness. If the commission acts STOXX 50 2622.62 2596.01 on the charges, the 13 banks (Bank of America Merrill FTSE 100 6307.78 6375.52 Lynch, Barclays, Bear Stearns, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS), the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), a derivative trade body and Markit, the main data handler for CDS, could face fines of up to 10 percent of global turnover. Brussels alleges that the harm from blocking exchanges, such as Deutsche Borse and CME Group of the US, went beyond trapping investors in the relatively more costly OTC market. The European Union will launch broad trade talks with the U.S in Washington next week despite French and German concerns about reports of U.S spying. France and Germany had demanded that Washington respond to news reports that the National Security Agency spied on European institutions, the latest diplomatic blow up from revelations by fugitive NSA leaker Edward Snowden. French President Francois Hollande on Monday said we cannot have any negotiations or deals until France and EU get guarantees that the U.S is not spying on its European allies. Germany officials said the trade talks could proceed but only on the basis of trust. On Tuesday, The Brussels based European Commission, the EU’s executive arm and lead trade negotiator, said the formal trade talks would start the week of July 8 as planned. Supporters of the trade negotiations say the TTIP is envisioned as a broad agreement on trade, agriculture, industry standards and investment that would boost growth on both sides of the Atlantic. CORPORATE NEWS France will sell stakes in Paris airport operator AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA (EURONEXT:ADP) of 4.69 percent to construction group VINCI (EURONEXT:DG) and 4.81 percent to CREDIT AGRICOLE ASSURANCES (EURONEXT: ACA), Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said. The government and its FSI investment fund will raise 738 million euros from the sale of 9.5 percent, the minister said in a statement on Sunday. Vinci and Credit Agricole Assurances will each get a board seat and have agreed not to increase their ADP stakes above 8 percent for five years. With the sale, Vinci raises its stake to nearly 8 percent. The French group has said it wants to expand its airport management business to reduce reliance on construction revenues. In December it paid 3.08 billion euros for Portuguese airport operator ANA. France’s cash strapped government, which has announced plans to trim some public holdings, announced on May 30 it planned to reduce the combined 60.1 percent of ADP controlled by the state and FSI fund, while retaining a majority. Russian niche coal producer SIBANTHRACITE set a price range for shares in a planned London market debut that would enable the selling shareholder to raise up to $214 million for its 25 percent stake. Sibanthracite said the GLG Emerging Markets Growth Fund would sell its one quarter stake in a price range between $7.00 and $9.5 per global depositary receipt (GDR) in an initial public offering. A two week investor road show starts on Monday to be followed by pricing. The offering would value the stake being put up for sale at between $158 million and $214 million. Of the shares on offer, 20 percent are being reserved for eligible existing investors of the GLG fund. The stock offering comes at a challenging time for coal producers as China’s industrial growth wanes and steelmakers struggle. Emerging markets that, like Russia, are weighted towards the resources sectors are also weak. Sibanthracite, however, profiles itself as a niche player offering a premium product‐ultra high grade anthracite that can be used as a substitute for coke in blast furnaces and continues to be in high demand. BARCLAYS PLC (LON:BARC), DEUTSCHE BANK AG (NYSE:DB) and CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG (NYSE:CS) had their credit ratings lowered by Standard & Poor’s as new rules and uncertain market conditions threaten their business. Long term counterparty credit ratings for the three banks were cu to A from A+. The company also affirmed it’s a long term rating and A1 short term rating on UBS AG (NYSE:UBS). The outlook for all four companies is stable. Banks are still in recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, which drove some economies into recession and spawned new regulations and legal proves. The four European lenders are among the most exposed to proposed rules that could reduce revenue from trading and investment banking operations. S&P maintained its ratings for UBS because it considers the Zurich based company to be the most active bank in reducing its exposures to investment banking. UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank by assets said it will cut about 10,000 jobs and retreat from capital intensive trading business. ENERGY & COMMODITIES U.S oil prices soared more than 2 perce4nt to a 14 month high above $100 a barrel following a decline in crude stockpiles and concerns that unrest in Egypt could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East. Crude futures rose as high as $102.18 in Asia trade, having tested the $100 mark in the New York session. Oil prices have risen more than 5 percent so far this week. Worries about Egypt also boosted Brent crude futures, which rose more than $1 to just above $105 a barrel. Instability in Egypt and Libya has bolstered crude oil prices amid concerns about the supply of oil from the Middle east. Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi has rebuffed an ultimatum from the army to resolve growing opposition to his government, which comes barely two years after long time strongman Hosni Mubarak was ousted in a wave of similar protests. Egypt controls the Suez Canal, which is a key transit point for oil tankers, and is why developments in Cairo are being watched closely. According to the latest data from the U.S Energy Information Administration, total oil flows through the Suez Canal reached almost 2.2 million barrels a day in 2011. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose by more than $1 to trade near $104 a barrel, extending the previous day’s rally. A Libyan official made an announcement that incessant disruption to that country’s oil sector could cripple Libya’s economy and choke off state revenue. New protests have shut down several Libyan oilfields in the last week. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET OPEN MARKET CLOSE The Yuan completed its best week since May before 01‐07‐13 05‐07‐13 Chinese officials meet their U.S counterparts on EUR 1.3010 1.2825 economic and political issues this month.
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