Potato Variety Adoption and Dis-Adoption in Kenya Final Report

Home , Bomet, Bomet County, Nakuru, Nakuru County, Nandi County, Uasin Gishu County

Potato variety adoption and dis-adoption in Kenya

Final report

Sinelle Sophie June-August 2018

CONTENTS

I. Introduction ...... 1 1. Potato production in Kenya ...... 1 2. Problem statement ...... 3 3. Objective and hypothesis ...... 5 a. Objectives ...... 5 b. Hypotheses ...... 5 II. Background ...... 7 1. History of potato in Kenya ...... 7 2. Climate change ...... 7 3. Pests and diseases ...... 8 4. Market ...... 14 III. Methodology ...... 15 1. Working hypotheses ...... 15 2. Sampling procedure ...... 17 3. Production region ...... 19 4. Training of enumerators ...... 21 5. Survey tools ...... 21 a. Questionnaire ...... 21 b. Group discussion ...... 22 6. Data collections and entries ...... 22 IV. Results ...... 23 1. Farmer and farm characteristics : results of sampling ...... 23 2. Hypothesis responses ...... 23 3. Variety adoption ...... 27 4. Variety abandonment...... 30 5. Comparison level of change of potato varieties...... 33 a. NANDI COUNTY: ...... 33 b. UASIN-GISHU COUNTY: ...... 34 c. ELGEYO-MARAKWET: ...... 34 d. NAKURU: ...... 35 e. MERU: ...... 35 f. BOMET: ...... 36 V. Discussion and conclusion ...... 37

List of Tables

Table 1: Potato cultivation schedule in Kenya ...... 8 Table 2: Overview of the main varieties grown in Kenya ...... 14 Table 3: Site description ...... 19 Table 4: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Nandi County ...... 33 Table 5: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Ainabkoi (Uasin-Gishu County) ...... 34 Table 6: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Elgeyo-Marakwet County ...... 34 Table 7: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Nakuru County ...... 35 Table 8: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Meru County ...... 35 Table 9: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Bomet County ...... 36

Annexes: Table 10: Interviewee gender per region ...... 0 Table 11: Percentage of farmers in each age group, per region...... 0 Table 12: Level of education completed, per region ...... 0 Table 13: The level of education by gender ...... 0 Table 14: Occupations, by gender ...... 0 Table 15: Farmer organization services ...... 0 Table 16: Subjects of training ...... 0 Table 17: Sources of training and advice...... 0 Table 18: Mean total farm size, and area used for potato production ...... 0 Table 19: Interviewees’ total production acreage per crop and region ...... 0 Table 20: Potato’s position in farming and household diets...... 0 Table 21: Proportion of harvest ...... 0 Table 22: Potato varieties grown in the survey areas ...... 0

List of Figures

Figure 1: Area harvested and yield in Kenya for potato production over the years ...... 1 Figure 2: Map of the main potato production areas ...... 2 Figure 3: Potato value chain ...... 3 Figure 4: Initial symptoms of Bacterial Wilt: crinkling of leaflets ...... 11 Figure 5: Advanced stage of infection ...... 11 Figure 6: Damage to potato tubers from Bacterial Wilt ...... 11 Figure 97: Whiteflies (Bemisia argentifolii) ...... 12 Figure 8: Cutworms ...... 13 Figure 9: Damage caused by cutworms...... 13 Figure 10: Damage to tubers caused by cutworms ...... 13 Figure 11: Map of area used for the interviews ...... 20 Figure 12: Percentage of farmers growing traders’ market-demanded variety ...... 24 Figure 13: Reasons for growing the market-demanded variety ...... 24 Figure 14: Top adoption criteria according to the questionnaires ...... 27 Figure 15: Shangi assessment ...... 28 Figure 16: Dutch Robijn assessment ...... 29 Figure 17: Asante assessment ...... 30 Figure 18: Farmers’ reasons for stopping growing Tigoni ...... 31 Figure 19: Farmers’ reasons for stopping growing Nyayo ...... 32 Figure 20: Farmers’ reasons for stopping growing Sherekea ...... 32

Acknowledgements

This work was made possible with financial and technical support from: - International Potato Center (CIP) - Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture (SFSA) I am grateful to Dr. Elmar Schulte-Geldermann and Dr. Ian Barker for giving me this opportunity to work as an intern at CIP. I am thankful to Elmar for being my supervisor and answering questions despite his busy schedule, and for giving me feedback on my work. I am also grateful to Dr. Elly Atieno, especially for his support throughout the field trips process. Thank you for being supportive during my three months in Kenya. Elly was very helpful in building the questionnaire, organizing the field trips, being the major actor during the group discussions (and my translator). I give a big thanks to the enumerators who followed us between the difficult roads: thank you to Elly, Edwin, Dorcas, Catherine and Wycliff. I am thankful to Benson Kisinga who has been very helpful concerning the data management. Thank you for your patience in explaining me the statistical possibilities, which was not easy. Thank you for being supportive and for your continual encouragement. I also wanted to thank you to Freddah Chebet who had the patience to do the data entry. I am grateful to Camille Renou, my manager at the Syngenta Foundation. Thank you for checking on how my work was progressing during the three months in Kenya, for giving me feedback weekly about my work in progress, and for being a facilitator throughout the internship process. I would also like to thank my colleagues from the Syngenta Foundation for their assistance with accommodation in Kenya. Especially thank you to George who has been so supportive of my internship at CIP.

Executive summary

The Syngenta Foundation, working with CIP, proposed a project on farmers’ potato variety adoption and dis-adoption. The aim of this study is to understand motivation changes for adopting a potato variety. What are the criteria to adopt or switch a potato variety? Currently, farmers are facing a lot of constraints during potato cultivation such as fluctuation price, adverse weather, pest and disease pressure, poor market… The study postulates that those constraints could influence the choice of farmers when choosing a new potato variety. This project targeted 289 farmers to interview, respecting the desire for gender balance. The overall study was conducted in the major potato production regions: Nandi, Meru, Bomet, Nakuru, Uashin-Gishu and Elgeyo-Marakwet. Thanks to these regions, the study covers around 70% of the total production area in Kenya. The present study has three hypothetical factors determining adoption: - Market demand is a determinant factor determining potato adoption; - Risks experienced related to climate, pests and diseases, and lack of market can influence farmers for the next season of production; - Money and incomes generation is one of the main factor for growing potato. The study shows that the market demand and the incomes are the most important criteria than the pest and disease and adverse weather impacts. Indeed, farmers will prefer to grow a potato variety with high yield potential and market demanded even if this variety is susceptible to adverse weather or pest and disease. However, the second hypothetical factor can become an important criteria between two varieties with the same profile of production and market demand. The results could show that the first factor is related to market demand and yield, and secondly, the resistance to risks. Finally, the analysis goes through the balance gender and the results show that there is no difference between variety adoption of men and women: they have the same results according to the three hypothetical hypothesis.

I. Introduction 1. Potato production in Kenya

Potato (Solanum tuberosum) is the second more important food in Kenya after maize. Cultivated by around 800 000 farmers in 2017, potato represents one of the staple foods in Kenya both in rural and urban areas (CIP, 2012). According to FAOSTAT, the Kenyan potato production area is 145 967 ha, with an annual production of more than 1 300 000 t in 2016. The average yield was around 9 t/ha in 2016 (FAOSTAT).

Yield and area harvested per year in Kenya 160000 25 140000 20 120000 100000 15 80000

60000 10 Yield Yield (t/ha) 40000 5 Area harvested Area harvested (ha) 20000

0 0

2009 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2012 2015 Year

Area harvested Yield

Figure 1: Area harvested and yield in Kenya for potato production over the years

(Source: FAOSTAT)

Potatoes are mainly grown in the highlands of Central, Eastern and Rift Valley Provinces (Kaguongo, et al., 2008). The crop is also produced in other regions such as Mount Elgon and in several areas in the southern border region with Tanzania. The most favorable climatic conditions for potato production are at an altitude of between 1500 and 3000 meters above sea level (GIZ, 2014).

KARI sites

Bomet – Narok Kiambu Mont Elgon Meru Keiyo - Nakuru Nyandarua Nyeri Taveta

Figure 2: Map of the main potato production areas KARI: Kenya Agricultural Research Institute Potato represents a cash crop for smallholders and plays an important role in national food and nutrition security (Wachira et al., 2014). Over 60% of the fresh potato supplied by traders is processed in fast food outlets, restaurants, schools and street stalls (Wachira K et al, 2010).

Potato production also makes an important contribution to overcoming poverty through income generation and employment creation (Jane Muthoni, et al., 2013). Demand is increasing due to changes in consumption habits. The processing of crisps has become a major commercial activities in urban zones (USAID, 2015).

2. Problem statement

Despite its importance, however, the potato sector faces numerous issues. The current pool of potato varieties faces some limitations. These include susceptibility to pests and diseases, lack of tolerance to climate changes, poor yield, and long cooking- time. Farmers try to overcome some of these problems through increased input use, which is expensive. The International Potato Center has worked to breed and release new varieties to overcome the challenges related to potato production. These new varieties have the potential to increase productivity and reduce the quantity of inputs required. In 2017, CIP released a lot of varieties adapted to climate change and the incidence of pests and diseases. However, only few of them are currently used in the fields. The use of certified seeds can increase the yield and reduce the cost of inputs. However, the diffusion of these varieties doesn’t seem to be efficient. Moreover, farmers are facing a lot of challenges related to potato marketing: - Price fluctuation - Transportation: poor roads, in particular - Lack of contractual arrangements: farmers do not necessarily have formal contracts with processing industry. So they produce potatoes but are not sure if they can sell their production. - Brokers: one of the links in the value chain. Their use of ‘extended bags’ is a problem for farmers (s. below). The value chain between the farmers and the consumers is very complex: there is a lot of intermediaries.

Farmers Brokers Traders Wholesalers Retailers Consumers

Figure 3: Potato value chain Farmers are the potato growers: they take care of potato cultivation from seed to harvest. They pay the brokers to sell their production. Brokers act as a link between farmers and traders: the brokers’ role is to keep in close contact with farmers to get to know the quantity of potato production and varieties

3 available to sell. They also are in contact with the traders in order to know the market demand (restaurants, schools, local market, etc.). Brokers tend to collect the potatoes in one place, aggregating farmers’ production. Generally, one group of brokers deals with 30 to 70 farmers. They get a fixed fee per bag from local traders. They buy potatoes from farmers and sell to the traders. Traders provide bags for the brokers. Wholesalers aggregate the production at market level and sell directly to hotels, restaurants, processors and so on. Retailers sell to consumers in shops. Consumers are the final factor in the value chain. Brokers buy potato from farmers at a very low price and sell to traders at a sizable profit. They use ‘extended bags’ so that farmers add more kilos of potato for the price of a bag.

According to Van den Ban and Hawkins (1996), adopting a new variety involves five phases: i) Awareness: the smallholders become aware of the new variety; ii) Interest: the farmers are interested by this new variety and try to find out more about it. This step can happen through formal training, knowledge-sharing between farmers or farmer groups, or through other channels such as radio; iii) Evaluation: The farmer assess the variety’s advantages and disadvantages; iv) Trial: Before adopting the new variety, the farmer will test it on a small scale to assess characteristics and performance and will decide if it is worth adopting; v) Adoption: The smallholder adopts the new variety. We will focus here on steps four and five, identifying factors that lead a farmer to choose one variety after the trial period. We want to understand why a farmer continues growing a variety: simply testing one doesn’t mean that a farmer will decide to keep it. Various quantitative surveys have presented data on potato yield, production area, planting practices, etc. However, there so far seems to be no qualitative survey of factors affecting adoption and ‘dis-adoption’ (abandonment) of potato varieties. The present study assesses these factors, and those influencing variety turnover over the years. It helps understand variety motivation changes and seed potato purchase criteria. This understanding could help breeders’ priority-setting, by identifying key success factors for potato variety adoption. The focus questions are: How do farmers choose a new potato variety, and what are the main criteria for adoption?

3. Objective and hypothesis

a. Objectives

Every year, research institute such as the International Potato Center (CIP) release several new potato varieties. There are numerous varieties available, but farmers currently only grow a few of them. The present study aims to understand why this is the case. In achieve this, we want first to understand motivation changes when adopting a variety. The objectives of this study are to: 1) understand variety changes by collecting data on varieties grown and identifying the motivation changes; 2) determine the criteria for adoption and dis-adoption; 3) identify the risks encountered by farmers when growing potato and how they try to tackle these with new varieties.

b. Hypotheses

The following hypotheses will be tested and used to find out how farmers choose their varieties. Hypothesis 1: Market demand is an important factor influencing farmers’ variety adoption. Analysis of what traders want will be used to test this first hypothesis. We will compare the difference between the criteria for adoption and the varieties purchased. Each region has its own potato-growing specifics, so this hypothesis will be disaggregated by region. We will rank the criteria of adoption according to farmers’ and traders’ responses to the questionnaire.

Hypothesis 2: Risks encountered during production are a determinant point when farmers choose a potato variety. Farmers every day face risks when growing potato. Some experience risks related to the climate, pests and disease or lack of market. These can influence a farmer in the following season. We postulate that loss due to these risks can influence the farmer to change variety.

Hypothesis 3: The choice of potato variety is important for income-generation. Several features of a potato variety can help farmers to increase their incomes. We postulate that yield or early maturity can help them earn more from higher volumes or by being among the first on the market.

II. Background 1. History of potato in Kenya

British colonial settlers first introduced potato to Kenya and other parts of East Africa in the 1880’s (Wachira et al., 2014). From the 1920’s onwards, potato became a popular crop with indigenous Kenyan farmers, notably in the highlands. In 1923, for example, some achieved yields of 22.5t/ha, and successfully marketed their harvest (Wachira et al., 2010). However, in the 1930s, potato farmers were struggling with economic problems caused by the global Depression, as well as with pests and diseases (Waithaka, 1976). During the Second World War, potato production help provide for British military needs. After 1945, potato research improved thanks to the Colony Potato Officer in 1958 and the Potato Research Advisory Committee in 1961. During this period, a lot of improvements were made in seed production and screening, breeding for disease resistance, and pathology studies (Waithaka 1976). The formal system of potato seed production was created in 1958 on the template of the European system. In 1986, the formal system produced 42,000 bags of certified seeds. The release of new potato varieties was done by the National Agricultural Laboratories, established in Nairobi in 1903. Potato production was developed through a government project, with assistance from Germany and the UK. This project focused on variety screening, plant breeding and seed multiplication. The KARI station at Tigoni was established in the meantime, and is now a potato research station (Wachira et al., 2010). Between the 1970s and 1980s, the Faculty of Agriculture, the University of Nairobi and the International Potato Center developed a project on the promotion, research and extension of potato activities (Wachira et al., 2010).

2. Climate change

Kenya’s great biodiversity stems from a considerable spectrum of geography and weather. Altitude ranges from sea-level to more than 5000 m, average annual rainfall from 250 mm in arid and semi-arid areas to 2500 mm elsewhere (Jane Kabubo-Mariara et al., 2007). The country has seven different agro-climatic zones. Many farmers face problems related to climate changes. The potato sector is among those plagued by drought and flooding. In Kenya, rain remains one of the most important issues. Potato production is determined by the two rainy seasons. The ‘short rains’ traditionally fall between October and February, the ‘long rains’ between March and September. Generally, farmers grow potato twice a year, with a three-month interval between harvests. They plant for the short rains in

October/November, for harvesting in January and February. Long rains planting is in March and April, with the cropped lifted in July and August. Table 1 summarizes the schedule.

Table 1: Potato cultivation schedule in Kenya

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Short H* H* P** P** rains Long P** P** H* H* rains H*: Harvest / P**: Planting

Heavy rains increase the incidence of Late Blight and Bacterial Wilt, which reduce yield. The rains also lead to leaching of soil nutrients. To overcome the diseases, farmers spray more or change the chemicals applied. They often use foliar feed to supplement the crop. They can also replace the variety used. Increased drought is a result of climate change. Like too much rain, too little also reduces potato yield. Farmers change to varieties that seem to show greater drought-tolerance, such as Kenya Karibu in Bomet. In some regions, farmers decided not to grow potato during dry periods. The farmers consulted in the present study said they experience crop losses due to adverse weather every year.

3. Pests and diseases

Farmers face a lot of pests and diseases when growing potatoes. By understanding these risks affecting production, we will understand better why farmers adopt or dis-adopt varieties according to their disease-resistance. The following section gives an overview of the main varieties grown, with their characteristics including resistance or tolerance to pests and disease. Bacterial Wilt is the most prevalent disease, reported 77% of potato farmers, followed by Late Blight (67%) and viral diseases (12%) (Wachira K. et al, 2010). In the present study, late blight seems to be the first constraint. Late Blight puts a major constraint on potato production. The economic damage is estimated at $3 billion annually in developing countries, including yield losses and management costs (Baker et al., 2004; CIP, 2007). This disease is caused by the fungus

8 oomycete pathogen Phytophthora infestans (Stewart and Bradshaw, 2001). Potato is the primary host, but this pathogen can also affect solanaceous plants such as tomato (Robijnson A. and al., 2017). This fungal disease is prevalent in conditions of wetness and high humidity (http://www.kalro.org/). The initial symptoms of Late Blight are water-soaked spots on lower leaves. The spots vary from light to dark green, and be circular or irregularly shaped. The initially small lesions can spread rapidly to the rest of the plant, and become big, dark and greasy- looking. They can be surrounded by a light green to yellow halo. (See Figures 1 & 2). Depending on the pressure of infection, farmers may apply chemicals more than ten times per season (Namanda et al, 2004). According to the present study, the majority of farmers in Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Bomet, Nakuru, Meru and Nyandarua spray against Late Blight somewhat more than four times per season. The majority of farmers interviewed experience Late Blight every year. Most of them use the fungicide (Ridomil®).

Figure 1: First symptoms of Late Blight on potato Figure 2: Advanced symptoms of Late Blight on plants potato plants

Figure 3: Results of Late Blight damage on potato

(Source: http://www.cipotato.org/potato/pests_diseases/late_blight)

Bacterial Wilt is the most important bacterial disease affecting potato production. It affects over 70% of potato farmers, and can cause 50 to 100% yield-loss in Kenya (Muthoni et al., 2014). It is caused by a bacterium called Ralstonia solanacearum. This bacterium has a wide range of hosts: besides Solanaceae, it also attacks crops such as eggplant or pepper. The three main risk factors are temperature, soil and moisture content. The bacterium may be present between 0 and 10°C, but without emergence. Optimum temperature for development is around 30-35°C (INRA website e-phytia). The disease is restrained by dry conditions, and requires soil moisture to thrive (Government of South Australia website). Symptoms start with the crinkling (wilting) of a few leaflets. The first symptoms may start affecting one or two stems before spreading to the entire plant. Tuber symptoms are characterized by browning of the vascular ring. It is possible to observe this symptom only by cutting off a tuber. The tuber can be decomposed by this disease – hence the Wilt’s alternative name, Brown Rot (INRA website e-phytia). According to the present study, the majority of farmers in survey regions do not spray fungicides to tackle Bacterial Wilt. Instead they use crop rotation to prevent it. The majority of farmers interviewed experience the disease every one to two years.

Figure 4: Initial symptoms of Figure 5: Advanced stage of infection Bacterial Wilt: crinkling of leaflets

Figure 6: Damage to potato tubers from Bacterial Wilt

(Source: http://ephytia.inra.fr/en/C/20921/Potato-Symptoms.)

In addition to diseases, potato farmers also face a lot of pests. Aphids (Macrosiphum euphorbiae) affect potato crops by sucking plant juices. They damage roots, stems, leaves and even the fruit. This pest causes abnormal growth, wilt or flower drop (Syngenta website). Cool and moist conditions encourage aphid invasions. According to the present study, the farmers in survey regions spray insecticides against aphids somewhat more than four times per season. Most farmers use (Duduthrin®).

Figure 7: Aphid (Macrosiphum Figure 8: Aphid damage euphorbiae)

(Source: https://www.syngenta.ca/sfpests/insects/aphids/Potatoes.)

Whiteflies (Bemisia argentifolii) are a very common pest on potato. The damage they cause is similar to that from aphids: they suck the sap out of the plant. Whiteflies damage leaves by feeding, causing them to turn yellow and curl. Their honeydew makes the leaves shiny and blackened. According to the present study, those farmers in survey regions who spray insecticides against whiteflies do so more than four times per season. However, most do not spray.

Figure 97: Whiteflies (Bemisia argentifolii) Figure 10: Damage caused by whiteflies

Source:https://www.gardeningknowhow.com/plant-problems/pests/insects/whitefly-control.htm

Cutworms, also known as nocturnal moths, are further insects which can affect potato production. There a number of different types: terricolous cutworms, developing in the soil, defoliator cutworms on the foliage, and borer cutworms in the stems (INRA website e- phytia). They feed on the root system, reducing plant cover and causing losses. Cutworms may also create irregular cavities in tubers. Damage caused by these insects is, however, not a major constraint on growing potato. According to the present study, farmers in survey regions spray insecticides to overcome cutworms twice or more per season. Most use (Duduthrin®).

Figure 8: Cutworms Figure 9: Damage caused by cutworms

Figure 10: Damage to tubers caused by cutworms

Source: http://ephytia.inra.fr/en/C/20965/Potato-Agrotis-spp-Cutworms

4. Market

In order to understand the factors influencing adoption of potato variety, it is important to compare the characteristics of the main varieties grown in Kenya. Table 2 provides an overview of these varieties’ yield, maturity and key attributes. It also lists their release dates. The information comes from the national catalogue of improved varieties.

Table 2: Overview of the main varieties grown in Kenya

Variety Year of Owner Time to Tuber Attributes release maturity yield (months) Shangi 2015 KALRO* Early (< = 3) 30-40 t/ha Chips, table variety, moderately susceptible to Late Blight, smooth cream skin Dutch Robijn 1960’s KALRO* 3-4 <= 30 t/ha Crisps, moderately resistant to Late Blight, red skin Asante 1998 KALRO*/CIP Medium (3-4) 35-45 t/ha Table variety, tolerant to Late Blight, smooth pink skin Desiree 1972 KALRO* Early to 35-40 t/ha Chips, table variety, moderately medium (2,5- tolerant to Potato Virus Y, 3,5) smooth red skin Sherekea 2010 KALRO*/CIP Medium (3-4) >40 t/ha Crisps, chips, table variety, resistant to Late Blight, PVY and PLRV, smooth red skin Tigoni 1998 KALRO* Medium (3-4) 35-45 t/ha Frozen chips, table variety, moderately tolerant to Late Blight, smooth white skin Unica 2016 CIP Early (<= 3) >40 t/ha Chips, crisps, table variety, moderately resistant to Late Blight, highly resistant to PVX and PLRV *KALRO was formerly called KARI. PVY: potato virus Y / PLRV: Potato leaf roll virus Adopting a new variety can represent a risk for farmers. They generally do not know the characteristics of the new varieties released. Farmers pass through five phases before adopting a new potato variety (s. p. 5 above). These risks can be reduced by providing information via training sessions and/or trial demonstrations. Farmers can also gain knowledge from their peers, through farmer groups, or via channels such as extension programs on the radio.

III. Methodology 1. Working hypotheses

This study is based on three working hypotheses, with the survey designed to match. These were defined via desk research as well as in discussions with colleagues from CIP and the Syngenta Foundation.

Hypothesis 1: Market demand The first hypothesis is that smallholders choose to grow varieties according to market demand. Each region has its own specific features. Market demand influencing farmers when they choose a potato variety will be tested. Hypothesis 0: There is no link between market demand and variety choice. Demand in the market is not a determinant criterion. Hypothesis 1: There is a link between market demand and variety choice. Demand in the market is a determinant criterion. To test these two hypotheses, we use the following variables from the questionnaire and the group discussion: - Varieties wanted by traders to sell on the market and to restaurants, schools, etc.; - Varieties grown by the farmers; - The reasons for growing these potato varieties (market demand and market price). The aim is to check if the potato variety grown matches what traders want.

Hypothesis 2: Risks a) Climate In the first part of the second hypothesis, the study postulates that the smallholders choose to grow a variety according to its capacity to resist to weather extremes. The farmers changing their varieties when they experience loss due to the climate will be tested. Hypothesis 0: There is no link between the impacts due to the climate and the potato variety choice. The impacts due to the climate are not a determinant criterion. Hypothesis 1: There is a link between the impacts due to the climate and the potato variety choice. The impacts due to the climate are a determinant criterion.

To test this, the following variables from the questionnaire and the group discussion will be used: - Types of climate changes (drought, flood, etc.) - Variety replacement when farmers experience loss due to adverse weather. We want to test if variety replacement matches with climate experiences.

b) Pests and disease For the second part of the second hypothesis, the study postulates that the incidence of pests and disease influences farmers when choosing a potato variety. The farmers changing their varieties when they experience loss due to pest or disease will be tested. Hypothesis 0: There is no link between pests and disease susceptibility or resistance and the potato variety choice. The resistance or susceptibility to pests and disease is not a determinant criterion. Hypothesis 1: There is a link between pests and disease susceptibility or resistance and the potato variety choice. The resistance or susceptibility to pests and disease is a determinant criterion. To test this, the following variables from the questionnaire and the group discussion will be used: - Types of pests and diseases faced; - Variety replacement when farmers experience loss due to pests and disease. We want to test if variety replacement matches the pests and disease incidence.

c) Economic risks In part 3 of the second hypothesis, the study postulates that the loss due to lack of a market is an important factor when choosing a potato variety. The farmers changing their varieties when they experience loss due to the lack of a market will be tested. Hypothesis 0: There is no link between the risks of lack of a market and the potato variety choice. The risks due to the lack of market are not a determinant criterion. Hypothesis 1: There is a link between the risks due to the lack of market and the potato variety choice. The risks due to the lack of market are a determinant criterion. To test these hypotheses, the following variables from the questionnaire and the group discussion will be used: - Experience of lack of market

- Variety replacement when farmers experience loss due to lack of a market. We want to test if the variety replacement matches with the lack of a market.

Hypothesis 3: Money/Incomes For the last hypothesis, the study testes if the farmers choose a variety according to income generation. We want to know if there is an association between different factors such as the variety, yield, seed type and price of sale potato production.

2. Sampling procedure

The primary aim of this survey was to collect data that can be used to understand the adoption and dis-adoption of potato varieties in Kenya. The study included both household survey and group discussions. These ran in six counties: Elgeyo-Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Bomet, Nakuru and Meru. These were purposely selected, because they represent over 70% of potato grown in Kenya, and have a diverse history of production. The survey respondents were recruited as follows: In each of the selected study Counties, two Sub-Counties and either one or two wards each were purposely selected, based on local production and significance of potato. In Elgeyo Marakwet, Keiyo South and Marakwet West Sub-Counties were selected, with Chepkorio and Metkei, and Lelan and Kapyego wards respectively. In Uasin Gishu, Ainabkoi and Kesses Sub-Counties were selected, with Ainabkoi/Olare and Tarakwa wards respectively. In Nandi, Nandi Hills and Emgwen Sub-Counties were selected, with Ol’lessos and Kapsabet wards respectively. However, heavy rains and impassable roads in Kapsabet during the survey period made it impossible to conduct the survey in that area. In Bomet, only Bomet East Sub-County was selected, with Chemaner and Kembu wards, since over 90% of potatoes in that County are produced there. In Nakuru, Kuresoi and Keringet Sub-Counties were selected, with Kuresoi and Pambo, and Keringet wards respectively. In Meru, Buuri and Imenti central Sub-Counties were selected, with Naari/Kiirua and Kibirichia, and Abothoguchi West and Nkuene wards respectively. For each ward, a list of potato farmers was obtained from local agricultural officers, and 15 households were randomly selected for personal interviews. For logistical reasons, the selected households or their representatives were invited to a central place in each ward at different times for personal interviews with five trained enumerators. Due to time and economic constraints, we targeted to interview 30 households per day (15 in the morning and 15 in the afternoon).

The above process yielded 60 respondents each in Elgeyo Marakwet, Bomet, Nakuru, Meru and 30 in Uasin Gishu. Only 19 were interviewed in Nandi, since no interviews could be conducted in Kapsabet ward. Therefore, a total of 289 respondents were successfully interviewed during the survey from the three hundred targeted. In each case, the questionnaire/tool was administered to the head of the household, or if unavailable, to his or her representative. The number of group discussions conducted in each county was related to the number of respondents targeted. Hence we had two group discussions each in Elgeyo Marakwet, Bomet, Nakuru and Meru. One group discussion each was organized in Nandi and Uasin Gishu. A total of ten group discussions were therefore conducted representing one in each of the Sub-Counties selected for the survey. The selection of the group was done by the ward agricultural officer and the ward administrator. They were requested to identify and invite 5-10 farmers who had experience of more than ten years’ potato production in their wards. The discussion took between 45 minutes and 1 hour. The discussions were guided by thematic questions developed to address topical areas such as varieties’ adoption and dis-adoption, impact of climate change and risks in potato farming.

3. Production region The regions were selected based on their importance for potato production and because of CIP’s seed-related projects. The Counties mentioned account for around 70% of the total production area in Kenya.

Table 3: Site description

Region Location Area Altitude Annual County Wards Specificity (square (m) average km) rainfall* (mm)

Nandi North Rift 2900 1500 Six counties 30 Nandi Hills Maize-growing area – sub-counties conversion into potato- growing area Uasin-Gishu Plateau located in 3000 1900* 900-1100 Six counties Ainabkoi Maize-growing area – the Rift Valley Kesses conversion into potato- Province growing area Elgeyo- Rift Valley 3000 2700- Two sub- Keiyo: Metkei Second-highest production Marakwet Province 3300* counties: Keiyo and Chepkorio of any County and Marakwet Marakwet: Lelan and Kapyego Bomet Rift Valley 1600 1900 1100-1500 Two divisions: Chemaner and Mainly growing red- Province Bomet Central Kembu skinned potatoes*** for and Longisa processing into chips** Nakuru Rift Valley 2325 3000 1200-1400 Two divisions: Molo: One of the biggest potato- Province Molo and Kuresoi and growing areas in Kenya. Elburgon Keringet Harvesting before full maturity**. Cash crop*

Meru Eastern Province 7000 1400-2600 Kibirichia and One of the biggest potato Kirua production areas**** Farmers grow potatoes during the off-season and use irrigation** Source: *Jaetzold et al., 2006; **Wachira et al., 2014 ; *** Jane et al., 2013 ; **** Ng'ang'a et al., 2003

The following map shows the areas investigated.

60 farmers targeted

30 farmers targeted

Figure 11: Map of area used for the interviews

4. Training of enumerators

The field trips ran from July 30th to August 15th. Enumerators were recruited to help interview the farmers. The first day of each field trip was dedicated to training the enumerators. They received a brief background to the study and its aims. Some enumerators had already administered questionnaires; they shared their experiences with everyone. Some points come up as constraints: - Language can be a barrier to ensuring a good quality of responses; - Farmers can become aggressive about inappropriate questions; - Farmers need to understand the study’s purpose and benefits. The survey tool (questionnaire) was pre-tested within the group for training and to check the time required. This test led to some adjustments. The enumerators were also taken through the translation from English to Kiswahili. This “local” version was designed to ensure a good understanding of the questions and answers, and to put the farmer in a good position during the interview. Training also included a discussion about the use of appropriate words, for instance in relation to pests and diseases. Farmers’ names for these vary between areas. To avoid misunderstanding or confusion, the enumerators had a book listing common pests and diseases, with pictures to show to the farmers.

5. Survey tools

a. Questionnaire

A survey tool was created based on the study objectives and the three hypotheses on market demand, risks and money/incomes. The questionnaire had the following sections: 1) Household Characteristics: basic information to describe the farmer type; 2) Social Capital and Network: to understand if farmers have access to knowledge through a farmer organization or training, and a network to count on. This part is designed to discover if a lot of their variety choice stems from training; 3) Crop Production: to indicate farm production and the importance of potato; 4) Crop Management: to have an idea of the total cost of growing potato, in order to calculate the difference between input costs and sales; 5) Potato Production: to collect information about varieties currently grown and the reasons why; 6) Risks: to understand the risks for growing potato and how farmers manage these through variety adoption;

7) Incomes and Potato Marketing: to know the different sources of income and to understand the importance of potato. The aim of this questionnaire (ANNEXE 1) was to collect general information about current potato production. It took about 30/45 minutes to complete.

b. Group discussion

The aim of this session was to understand variety motivation changes over the years. We had prepared a list of topics with different questions. As with the questionnaire, the group discussions were conducted in Kiswahili. We chose to have a small number of farmers for each discussion group. Our aim with this was to ensure that all participants got a chance to talk, and to reduce the risk of the topics becoming too varied. Groups had an average of five farmers, who are leading figures in their villages’ agriculture. Focus topics were variety motivation changes, climatic issues, pests, diseases, and the market (ANNEXE 2).

6. Data collections and entries

During the field trips, data were gathered through the questionnaire and group discussions. The interviews and group discussion were conducted in Swahili for the sake of easy administration. However, the data were reported in English. The enumerators were trained to ensure the accuracy of the data collected. The software CSPro (Census and Survey Processing System) was used to gather the data in one source. This software can be used for entering, editing, tabulating and disseminating data from surveys. The data can be exported into any kind of statistical software. One person was responsible for entering all the data in CSPro.

IV. Results 1. Farmer and farm characteristics : results of sampling

For this study, 289 farmers were interviewed in different regions: Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nakuru, Bomet and Meru. We aimed to reach 60 farmers in each of the larger potato production areas, and 30 in the smaller ones. Gender distribution within the different counties was intended to be equal. The findings from the questionnaire allow us to depict a ‘typical Kenyan potato producer’. He or she is between 31 and 40 years old. Some 44% of farmers have completed secondary education, with another 36% leaving school after primary education. (37% of the female farmers had completed secondary school, compared to 49% of the men). A majority of potato growers use a part of their production for home consumption; they can work both as a farmer and in a business or as a teacher. A majority belong to a farmer group, typically specialized in input access and marketing of produce. 72% of farmers had participated in training on several topics, such as production techniques, pests and disease control and new potato varieties. A ‘typical’ farmer in the study area owns between one and three acres and grows potato, maize and vegetables. He or she only uses 0.5 acre for potato production.

2. Hypothesis responses

Hypothesis 1: Market demand The first hypothesis is related to market demand, i.e. if farmers choose a potato variety according to what traders want. So for each group discussion, I have highlighted the variety wanted and the one actually grown. Where the answer is the same in both cases, this study analyzes why. All this information comes from questionnaire responses and group discussions. I started by analyzing each County separately. The first chart shows the percentage of farmers in each County growing the variety demanded by traders. The second chart shows the reasons of growing these market-demanded varieties.

Percentage of farmers growing traders' market-demanded variety

120% n=14 n=31 n=55 n=61 n=51 n=61 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

n total=273 Market demanded No market demanded

Figure 12: Percentage of farmers growing traders’ market-demanded variety

Reasons for growing the market-demanded variety 120% n=14 n=31 n=61 n=51 100% n=55 n=61 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

n total= 273 Commercial reasons Others

Figure 13: Reasons for growing the market-demanded variety

In Nandi, the variety wanted by traders is Shangi (information obtained from the group discussion). Of 14 farmers interviewed, 50% grow Shangi during the long rains. 86% of production is for commercial purposes, and 14% for home consumption. In Uasin-Gishu, the variety wanted by traders is again Shangi (information obtained from the group discussion). Of 31 farmers interviewed, 95% grow Shangi during the long rains,

76% for commercial reasons, the rest for seed availability (use for its own seeds) and early maturity. In Bomet, traders want Dutch Robjn (information obtained from the group discussion). Of 55 farmers interviewed, 67% grow Dutch Robjn during the long rains, 89% for commercial reasons including seed production. In Nakuru, Shangi and Kenya Karibu are the varieties in demand (information obtained from the group discussion). Of 61 farmers interviewed, 93% grow Shangi during the long rains, 79% for commercial reasons including seed production. The rest is for seed availability, early maturity and home consumption. Traders in Meru want Shangi and Asante (information obtained from the group discussion). Of 51 farmers interviewed, 88% grow these varieties during the long rains, 76% for commercial reasons, and the rest for easy agricultural practices, home consumption, seed availability and early maturity. In Elgeyo-Marakwet, the varieties wanted by traders are Shangi and Tigoni (information obtained from the group discussion). 97% of the 61 farmers interviewed grow these potatoes during the long rains, 93% for commercial reasons and the rest for home consumption and seed availability.

The two charts make it clear that in almost every county, a high percentage of farmers grow a market-demanded variety. The exception is Nandi, with 50%. However, with only 14 interviewees, this finding is less robust than elsewhere. Despite that, we can validate our alternative hypothesis: There is a link between the demand of the market and potato variety choice. Market demand is a determinant criterion. Farmers grow the varieties demanded by traders, and mainly for commercial reasons.

Hypothesis 2 : Risks 1) Weather All 289 farmers interviewed have experienced losses due to adverse weather. However, this has only led 7% to change a variety – of these, 52% chose Shangi instead. Adverse weather in the form of surplus rain increases Late Blight incidence, lowering yield and requiring the use of additional chemicals. According to the group discussion, few varieties on the market are adapted to climate changes. Some seem to show a certain ability to cope with surplus rainfall or drought, but do not meet other criteria such as high yield or market demand.

Based on these findings, there is no link between the climate impacts and potato variety choice. For now, impacts due to climate are not a determinant criterion. They may become an important factor, but there is not yet a variety with all the criteria required by farmers and therefore enabling a genuine choice. 2) Pests and disease 249 farmers have experienced losses due to pests and diseases. Even though Shangi was involved in 64% of cases, only 5% of farmers decided to drop it as a result. Shangi is susceptible to Late Blight, according to both the national catalogue of improved varieties and the farmers interviewed during the group discussion. However, as Shangi is strongly market-demanded and appreciated for its early maturity and high yield), farmers do not replace it by another variety more tolerant than Shangi. High yield and market demand appear to be more important than the risks related to pests and disease. With reference to our hypotheses, we can therefore say that there is no link between pests and disease susceptibility / resistance and the potato variety choice. Resistance or susceptibility to pests and disease is not a determinant criterion. It could, however, form a second-tier criterion, but farmers seem to prefer a market-demanded variety over a resistant / tolerant one. 3) Lack of market : Lack of market is not a common risk: only 20% of farmers report related losses. 66% of these have experienced losses due to Shangi, but here again, this did not lead to much variety change. Only 17% of the 59 farmers decided to take this step. Despite the low numbers involved, the trend in relation to our hypothesis seems clear: There is no link between risks due to the lack of market and potato variety choice. The risks due to the lack of market are not a determinant criterion. They could, however, form a second-tier criterion, if a variety had all the main characteristics required.

Hypothesis 3: Money and incomes For this hypothesis, we have chosen some parameters influencing money and income, such as yield and early maturity. If farmers are first on the market thanks to their potatoes’ early maturity, they can sell at a higher price than farmers with later crops. We will analyze this third hypothesis from the viewpoint of variety adoption and dis- adoption.

3. Variety adoption

For the questionnaire, farmers had to assess the potatoes they were growing in the current season. In each region, the first criterion for replacing a potato variety is yield (cf. Figure 14). As mentioned above, potato is the second most important crop in Kenya for consumption and income. Farmers therefore look for a variety with high yield. Market demand also seems to be an important factor when choosing a variety. Farmers additionally look for a variety resistant or tolerant to pests and diseases, in order to save input costs. During group discussions with agricultural officers and the main potato producers, we asked about top priorities for a potato variety. In most wards, high yield seems to be the main criterion. As with the questionnaires, the group discussions highlighted market demand and yield as the next two factors for choosing a potato variety.

High tuber yield Market demand Late Blight Resistant Seed availability Early Maturity Better taste

Figure 14: Top adoption criteria according to the questionnaires

The questionnaire then asked why farmers grow Kenya’s three main potato varieties.

Shangi assessment 120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% Tuber yield Late Blight Early Market Seed Taste Cooking Market price Resistance maturity demanded availability time

Very good good medium bad very bad Don't know

Figure 15: Shangi assessment Shangi is the most commonly grown variety in Kenya; 60% of interviewed potato farmers plant it, on an average of 0.8 acre (cf. Table 19). This is in spite of susceptibility to pests and disease. Shangi is especially appreciated for its strong market demand and early maturity (cf. Figure 15). The variety is known for its high yield and for enabling farmers to be first on the market. Shangi is mainly used for commercial reasons and home consumption.

Dutch Robjn assessment 120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% Tuber yield Late Blight Early Market Seed Taste Cooking Market Resistance maturity demanded availability time price

Very good good medium bad very bad Don't know

Figure 16: Dutch Robijn assessment

Dutch Robjn is Kenya’s second most commonly grown potato. 14% of interviewed potato farmers produce this variety, on an average of 0.6 acre (cf. Table 19). Dutch Robjn is appreciated for its market demand, taste, cooking time and market price (Cf. Figure 16). Despite its susceptibility to pests and disease, Dutch Robjn is known for its high yield. However, it seems that not enough seeds are available.

Asante assessment 120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% Tuber yield Late Blight Early Market Seed Taste Cooking Market Resistance maturity demanded availability time price

Very good good medium bad very bad Don't know

Figure 17: Asante assessment

Asante is the third most popular potato choice; 10% of interviewed potato farmers grow this variety, on an average of 0.6 acre (cf. Table 19). Asante is appreciated for its market demand, taste, cooking time and market price (cf. Figure 17). Despite its susceptibility to pests and disease, Asante is known for its high yield and earliness. As with Dutch Robjn, it seems that not enough seeds are available.

4. Variety abandonment Moving on from the criteria for adopting a new potato variety, this section analyzes the factors for ‘dis-adopting’ one, in other words for abandoning its use. Normally, one would assume that the choices reflect two sides of the same issue. What are the main varieties abandoned in Kenya, and why?

Tigoni abandonment

Lack of market Low yield New variety Pest and disease Seed avalibility Storage Taste Late maturity Farmer advice

Figure 18: Farmers’ reasons for stopping growing Tigoni

Tigoni is a potato variety widely abandoned by farmers in Kenya, especially in four of the six regions covered by this study. 36% of farmers stopped using it mainly because of the lack of market and low yield (cf. Figure 18). Some farmers explained they had chosen another variety with high yield and market demand, such as Shangi. Other criteria for dis- adopting Tigoni include pest and disease management, irregular seed availability, complicated storage and characteristics such as poor taste and late maturity.

Nyayo abandonment

Lack of market Seed avalibility New variety Pest and disease Low yield Late maturity

Figure 19: Farmers’ reasons for stopping growing Nyayo

Nyayo is a second variety often abandoned by farmers, especially because of lack of market and seed availability (cf. Figure 19). Because of the lack of market, they replaced Nyayo by another variety. Other characteristics responsible for its replacement include pest and disease susceptibility, low yield and late maturity.

Sherekea abandonment

Lack of market Late maturity Low yield Pest and disease Seed avalibility Taste

Figure 20: Farmers’ reasons for stopping growing Sherekea

In the study, Sherekea is the third most frequently abandoned variety, dropped by 11% of the farmers interviewed. The main reasons for dis-adoption are lack of market and late maturity. Farmers want to be first on the market, in order to increase their incomes. Low yield seems to be a determinant criterion for dis-adopting a potato variety. Lack of market is the main overall reason for abandoning these three varieties. Low yield is another determinant factor. As anticipated, the criteria for dis-adoption thus mirror those for adoption.

5. Comparison level of change of potato varieties For this part, we used data from the group discussion. During the discussions, we asked farmers to describe potato-planting history. This involved listing the varieties grown as far back as farmers could remember, with the year of first production and when the variety was dropped. The Gantt charts in Tables 4 ff. show their answers. a. NANDI COUNTY:

Table 4: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Nandi County

Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Variety Golof Nyayo Tigoni Shangi Kenyanpya Unica Dutch Robjn Asante Sherekea

The first varieties grown in Nandi County were Golof, for its high yield and sweet taste, and Nyayo for chips. Both varieties were abandoned because of Bacterial Wilt incidence. Then Tigoni was grown for its high yield and suitability for chips. It was abandoned to the benefit of Shangi, which scored on short dormancy, good taste, and short cooking time for chips. Further varieties grown are Unica, Dutch Robjn, Asante and Sherekea. Kenyanpya was dropped because there is no market. No results for the period between 1981 and 2007.

b. UASIN-GISHU COUNTY:

Table 5: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Ainabkoi (Uasin-Gishu County)

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nyayo Mini Kenya Baraka Tigoni 20-20 Shangi Unica Rudolf Markies Nyayo, Kenya Baraka and Tigoni were mainly grown because seeds were available. Mini and 20-20 were grown for high yield and good tuber shapes. Farmers dropped all three when Shangi arrived. Shangi is appreciated because of early maturity, market demand, short cooking time, high yield and good taste. Although Shangi seems susceptible to Late Blight, farmers continue to grow it because of market demand. Unica, Rudolf and Markies were appreciated for their high yield.

c. ELGEYO-MARAKWET: Table 6: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Elgeyo-Marakwet County

Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Variety Nyayo Arka Mini Black Current Purple Gold Aneth Tigoni White Kenya Mpya Shangi Sherekea

Nyayo, Arka and Mini were mainly grown for their high yield and resistance to diseases such as Late Blight and Bacterial Wilt. They were replaced by Black Current because of its market demand; Purple Gold was promoted by research institutes. Aneth could be stored for a long time and was resistant to diseases. Tigoni White replaced Purple Gold because it enjoyed greater market demand. Kenya Mpya provided big tubers, but was rapidly replaced by Shangi because of high market demand, good yield and early maturity.

Despite high yield, Sherekea was dropped after only one year, because of its bitter taste and late maturity.

d. NAKURU:

Table 7: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Nakuru County

Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Variety Dutch Robjn Nyayo Kenya Karibu Komesa Tigoni Kibaki Meru Shangi Steven Sherekea Manitou

Dutch Robjn was grown for over 30 years, mainly because of market demand. It was finally dropped because of susceptibility to pests and disease. Nyayo was appropriate for home consumption but over the years, the yield went down. Kenya Karibu seems to be resistant to pests and disease, and is still grown by Nakuru farmers. Four other varieties were grown between 2000 and the arrival of Shangi, which beat them all on market demand and early maturity. As well as Shangi, farmers now grow Kenya Karibu and the much newer varieties Sherekea and Manitou.

e. MERU:

Table 8: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Meru County

Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Variety Agriculture Ngure Desiree Nyayo Golof Muchine Kanyony Arka Asante Tigoni Purple Tigoni White Ubasuti Kenya Mpya Kaumbere Shangi Sherekea Unica

Agriculture, Ngure, Desiree and Nyayo, promoted by extension staff, were all grown for many years. They were mostly abandoned because of new varieties. Arka and Asante

were introduced because of their high yield and big tubers, and are still grown. Some other varieties were produced for several years but were replaced by current ones such as Kaumbere, Shangi, Sherekea and Unica. The three are grown because of high yield and the early maturity. Shangi is also quick to cook and tastes good. Unica is a promising new variety.

f. BOMET:

Table 9: Farmers’ recall of variety-use history in Bomet County

Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Variety Meru Desiree Dutch Robjn Kenya Karibu Shangi Rudolf Markies Jelly

Meru was produced for a long time for its high yield, but over the years, market demand proved too weak. Meru was replaced by Desiree, Dutch Robjn and Kenya Karibu for market demand. The latter two are still grown. Dutch Robjn is appreciated for its shape and taste. Shangi was introduced in 2013 for market demand. Farmers appreciated some varieties such as Markies and Jelly, but were no longer able to get any seed.

V. Discussion and conclusion

This study was conducted thanks to the support of the International Potato Center. The aim was to understand farmers’ adoption and dis-adoption of potato varieties. Three working hypotheses provided the framework. The first looked at market demand. The second hypothesis concerned risks related to climate, pests and disease, and lack of market. The third one focused on income generation. The study was conducted in six Counties: Bomet, Meru, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nakuru, Uasin- Gishu and Nandi. A total of 289 farmers were interviewed via questionnaire by a team of five enumerators. We also gathered information during group discussions with agricultural officers and leading potato growers in each area. The hypothesis related to market demand asked: Do farmers choose a variety according to what traders want? Our results show that this is mainly the case. Market demand is a determinant factor when choosing a potato variety. The majority of farmers grow market- demanded varieties for commercial reasons, and not only for home consumption. The second hypothesis is about three types of risk related to potato production. The first concerns the climate. This is a major risk for potato production, primarily through flood or drought. However, weather-related risks did not prompt the majority of farmers to change varieties. They tend rather to adapt their agricultural practices, for example using more chemicals. We cannot say that climate has no influence at all on adoption or dis- adoption, but it is not a determinant criterion. We can say that this is a secondary factor after market demand. It may become decisive if a farmer has to choose between two otherwise similar varieties, only one of which copes well with climate risks. The second risk type is “biotic”: pests and disease. These represent a major risk for potato production, notably in the form of Late Blight. 64% of Shangi growers had already experienced losses due to pests and/or disease, but only 5% had changed to another variety as a result. Instead, most farmers adapt their agricultural practices, typically using more chemicals. We can therefore say that this is not a determinant criterion. Like climate risks, however, pest and disease risk may become a secondary factor when choosing between two varieties. Lack of market is not a common risk. Only a few farmers had recently decided to change variety because of lack of market. We can say that this is not a determinant criterion for adopting or dis-adopting a potato variety. Variety adoption was assessed via the questionnaire. More than 75% of farmers selected “high tuber yield” as their top adoption criterion, followed by “market demand”. The three main potato varieties grown in Kenya (according to the study) are seen as having very good tuber yield and strong market demand. For example, Shangi scores very well on tuber yield, market demand, taste and cooking time, but is not resistant to Late Blight, and the market price is not seen as particularly favorable.

For adoption, the response trend indicates that yield and market demand are more important than Late Blight tolerance and high prices. We also analyzed the reasons for variety abandonment, which we assumed would reflect the inverse. This proved to be the case. We assessed farmers’ reasons for abandoning three major previously grown varieties. The main reason for dropping all three was, indeed, a lack of market. The second main reason was low yield, with late maturity and lack of seed availability also important. These findings on variety adoption and abandonment also address our third hypothesis, related to income generation. Farmers look for a variety with high yield and early maturity (as well as market demand). These characteristics directly boost income. Farmers mainly grow potato for commercial reasons. Money and income are thus another determinant criterion for choosing a variety. Finally, the disaggregation by gender of the three hypothetical hypothesis had been analyzed. For the three hypothesis, the results are the same between men and women. In other words, there is no difference of adoption and dis-adoption between men and women concerning the market demand, the risks and the money and incomes. In annexes, a table sum up the results.

REFERENCES Baker, K.M, Kirk, W.W., Andresen J. and Stein, J.M. 2004. A problem case study: Influence of climatic trends on late blight epidemiology in potatoes. Acta Hort 638: 37-42. CIP. 2007. Potato / Late Blight Overview. April, 2007 http://www.cipotato.org/potato/pests_diseases/late_blight CIP, 2012. Wealth Creation through Integrated Development of the Potato Production and Marketing Sector in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia Ephytia - INRA, “Ralstonia solanacearum (Bacterial wilt) – Symptoms”, on http://ephytia.inra.fr/en/C/20921/Potato-Symptoms. Consulted on 22/08/2018 Ephytia - INRA, “Agrotis spp. (Cutworms or Nocturnal moths)”, on http://ephytia.inra.fr/en/C/20965/Potato-Agrotis-spp-Cutworms. Consulted on 22/08/2018 Giencke, Agricultural Marketing Consultant, Hamburg, Germany, 2014, "Post-harvest losses in potato value chains in Kenya: Analysis and recommendations for reduction strategies" Government of South Australia’s site: http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/299465/Fact_Sheet__Bacterial_Wil t_-_July_2017.pdf. Consulted on 22/08/2018 GIZ, 2014. "Post-harvest losses in potato value chains in Kenya: Analysis and recommendations for reduction strategies, 2014" Jaetzold, R., & Schmidt, H. (1982). Farm management handbook of Kenya (Vol. 2, pp. 397-400). Nairobi, Kenya: Ministry of Agriculture. Jane Kabubo-Mariara, Fredrick K. Karanja, 2007. “The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach”. School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Kenya; Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya. Jane Muthoni, Hussein Shimelis & Rob Melis, 2013, Potato Production in Kenya: Farming Systems and Production Constraints" Justus Ochieng, Lilian Kirimi, Mary Mathenge, 2015. “Effects of climate variability and change on agricultural production: The case of small scale farmers in Kenya”. Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development, Egerton University, P.O. Box 20498, 00200 Nairobi, Kenya Kaguongo, W., P. Gildemacher, P. Demo, W. Wagoire, P. Kinyae, J. Andrade, G. Forbes, K. Fuglie and G. Thiele. 2008. Farmer practices and adoption of improved potato varieties in Kenya and Uganda. International Potato center (CIP), Lima, Peru. Social Sciences Working Paper 2008-5. 85 p.

Muthoni et al., 2014, Spread of Bacterial Wilt Disease of Potatoes in Kenya: Who is to Blame? International Journal of Horticulture, 2014, Vol.4, No.3 10-15 (doi: 10.5376/ijh.2014.04.0003) Namanda, S., Olanya, O.M., Adipala, E., Hakiza, J.J., El-Bedewy R, Baghsari, A.S. and Ewell, P. 2004. Fungicide application and host-resistance for potato late blight management: benefits assessment from on-farm studies in S.W. Uganda. Crop Protection, 23: 1075-1083. Ng'ang'a, N. M., Kinyae, P. M., Walingo, A., Wakahiu, M. W., Kipkoech, D., Muhonja, L., & Kabira, J. N. (2003). Potato production and technology dissemination in Kenya. Unpublished Report.

Robijnson Andy, Gary Secor, Neil Gudmestad, 2017, Late Blight in Potato. NDSU/University of Minnesota Stewart, H.E. and Bradshaw, J.E. 2001. Assessment of the field resistance of potato genotypes with major gene resistance to late blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary) using inoculums comprised of two complementary races of the fungus, European Association for Potato Research, 44:41-52. Syngenta, “Weeds, Insects & Diseases - Aphids [Rhopalosiphum padi, Rhopalosiphum maidis, Sitobion avenae ], Homoptera”, https://www.syngenta.ca/sfpests/insects/aphids/Potatoes. Consulted on 22/08/2018. USAID, 2015. Potato Value Chain Analysis. Van Den Ban, A. W., & Hawkins, H. S. (1996). Agricultural Extension. London : Blackwell Science. Wachira Kaguongo, Nancy Ng’ang’a, Nancy Muthoka, Francis Muthami, Gladys Maingi. (2010). Seed Potato Subsector Master Plan for Kenya (2009‐2014). Seed potato study sponsored by GTZ‐PSDA, USAID, CIP and Government of Kenya, Ministry of Agriculture. Wachira Kaguongo, National Potato Council of Kenya (NPCK), Nairobi, Kenya Gladys Maingi, Consultant to National Potato Council of Kenya (NPCK), Nairobi, Kenya Sigri Waithaka, J.H.G., 1976. Potato cultivation in Kenya. Paper presented at the First Regional Workshop on Potato Seed Production and Marketing, Nairobi. October, 1976. International Potato Center (CIP).

ANNEXES Annexe 1: questionnaire

Household survey on adoption and dis-adoption of potato varieties in Kenya

Name of Enumerator Date of data collection Entry done by

Data sheet checked by Date checked Date of data entry

Part 1: Household characteristics Name of respondent Phone no: Gender □ Woman □ Man Age □ Younger than 20 □ 21 - 30 □ 31 - 40 □ 41 - 50 □ 51 - 60 □ Older than 60 County Sub-county Ward Marital Status □ Married □ Divorced □ Separated □ Widowed □ Single

Number of members in the Number younger than 20 years :………………………………………………… household Total number :………………………………………………………………………………………... Formal education □ None (respondent) □ Primary □ Secondary □ College (if so, related to agriculture? Yes/No) □ University (if so, related to agriculture? Yes/No)

If none, can you read and write English or Kiswahili? □ Yes □ No Relation of respondent to household head Main occupation

Part 2: Social capital and networks

Are you a member of farmer 1. Yes 0. No group/organization/Cooperative? If yes when did you first join (Year)? What are the functions of the group? 1. Marketing of produce 2. Input access 3. Seed production 4. Farmer research group 5. Pests and disease management 6. Savings and loans 7. Other (specify)…………………………………. Whom can you trust in a critical moment (e.g. 1. Family/relatives borrowing money)? 2. Neighbors 3. People outside the community 4. Friends Have you received training or specific information 1. Yes on potato production during the last two years? 2. No If so, what were the subjects? 1. New potato varieties 2. Pests and disease control 3. Production techniques 4. Soil and water management 5. Crop rotation 6. Storage 7. Marketing 8. Collective action/farmers’ organizations 9. Other, specify…………………………………. If so, whom did you get the information from? 1. Agricultural Officers 2. Agricultural cooperative 3. Farmers’ association 4. NGO’s 5. Research Institute………………….. 6. From another farmer 7. Media (radio, TV, newspaper) What are the form of operations on the farm? 1. Manual 2. Mechanized 3. Semi-mechanized Who are the employees on your farm? 1. Family 2. Friends 3. Community workforce 4. Hired labor

Part 3: Farm production (what are they growing now?) Crop (current season: Previous crop on Next crop on that Area planted Unit Harvest (if Unit Market April/July-August) that plot plot expected, put asterisk) Quantity Price/Unit

3.1 What is your total farm size (Available for crop production)?

(1) Below 1 acre (2) 1 to 3 acres (3) 3 to 5 acres (4) 5 to 10 acres (5) 10 to 20 acres (6) More than 10 acres

3.2 After how many seasons do you go back to potato (2 seasons = 1 year)?......

3.3 How many times do you grow potato in one year?......

3.4 Do you do potato under irrigation? (1) Yes (2) No. If yes which type of irrigation…………………………………………………

3.5 Do you have another source of income apart from farming-related? (1) Yes (2) No

If so, what kind?...... …

Part 4: Crop management (for potato) 4.1 Fertilizer inputs: Fertilizer type Frequency (per Quantity used Reasons for use Costs/per unit (organic = manure, season) compost Quantity Unit inorganic = DAP, (Once, twice, 3 times, 4 times, more than 4 NPK) times)

Inorganic:

Organic:

4.2 Inputs for pests and disease management (knowledge about pests and disease): Diseases Input name Frequency (per Average quantity Reasons for use Costs/per unit (chemicals) season) used

(Once, twice, 3 times, 4 Quantity Unit times, more than 4 times)

Pests

4.3 Other inputs and responsibilities Do pests and diseases influence your choice of 1. Yes 2. No variety?

Who is mostly responsible for the fertilizers used 1. Man 2. Woman 3. Both or purchase decisions?

Who is mostly responsible for the pesticides used 1. Man 2. Woman 3. Both or purchase decisions?

Who is mostly responsible for the labor used? 1. Man 2. Woman 3. Both

Who is mostly responsible for the choice of 1. Man 2. Woman 3. Both variety?

Costs for potato production this season Land leasing :

Land preparation :

Planting :

Weeding/Hilling (1) :

Weeding/Hilling (2) :

Dehalming (cutting the leaves before harvesting) :

Harvesting :

Transport :

Packaging bags :

Any other costs related to production? Specify and give amount………………………………………..

Part 5: Potato Production 5.1 Potato varieties grown in the last two seasons: Season Variety Land Seed Seed Unit Price Amount Amount Amount Average Reasons for growing (maximum Area source* Quantity per unit harvested (if consumed sold price 3 reasons) (acres) expected put *) per unit

Long rains (this season)

Short rains (last season)

*Seed source: (1) Own, (2), Local Market, (3) Seed multiplier, (4) Family/Friends/Neighbors, (5) Certified seed producers, (6) Other (specify)

5.2 Characteristics of varieties grown: Variety Tuber Yield Late Blight Early Market Seed Taste Cooking time Market price Resistance Maturity demand Availability

Code of characteristics: 6. I don’t know/No opinion 5. Very Bad 4. Bad 3. Medium 2. Good 1. Very Good

5.3 How often do you replace your seed? (1) After 1 season (2) After 2 seasons (3) After 3 seasons (4) After 4 seasons (5) After more than 4 seasons 5.4 Who is responsible of this replacement? (1) Man (2) Woman (3) Both 5.5 What is the main criteria for replacing the seed? (1) High tuber yield (2) Late Blight Resistance (3) Early Maturity (4) Market demand (5) Seed availability (6) Better taste (7) Affordable seed price 5.6 What are 3 you have stopped growing? What are the reasons to dis-continue growing these varieties?

Part 6: Risks

6.1 CLIMATE 5.1.1. What is the main risk you have experienced while growing potatoes the last ten years? (1) Drought (2) Flood (3) Frost (4) Soil erosion (5) Disease outbreak (specify)…………………………….. (6) Other: specify………………………………………………………… 5.1.2. When you experienced crop loss due to adverse weather, which variety did you have at the time……………………….and what was the seed source...... 5.1.3. When you experienced crop loss due to adverse weather, did you replace the variety above? (1) Yes (2) No 5.1.4. If so, which variety did you replace it with?...... from where?...... 5.1.5. How often have you experienced serious losses related to weather? (1) Every year (2) Every 2 years (3) Every 3 years (4) Every 4 years 5.1.6. Do you know varieties tolerance to these risks?...... if yes specify...... 5.1.7. Would you be willing to pay for certified seeds of a tolerant variety if available?...... If so, at what price per 50Kg bag?......

6.2 PESTS AND DISEASE: 6.2.1. What are the main diseases you faced?...... 6.2.2. Do you know varieties resistant to these diseases?...... 6.2.3. When you experienced crop loss due to disease, which variety did you use?...... from where………...... 6.2.4. When you experienced crop loss to disease, did you decide to replace this variety? (1) Yes (2) No If so, which variety did you replace it with?...... 6.2.5. What are the main pests you faced?...... 6.2.6. Do you know varieties resistant to these pests?...... 6.2.7. When you experienced crop loss to pest, which variety did you use?...... from where...... 6.2.8. When you experienced crop loss to pest, did you decide to replace this variety? (1) Yes (2) No If so, which variety did you replace it with?...... 6.2.9. When was the last time (year) you experienced serious losses related to pests and disease?......

6.3 ECONOMIC RISKS 6.2.1. Have you ever experienced loss due to lack of market? (1) Yes (2) No If so, what was the variety then?...... 6.2.2. When you experienced crop loss due to lack of market, did you decide to replace this variety? (1) Yes (2) No If so, which variety did you replace with?......

Part 7: Potato Marketing

7.1 Who is responsible for the market? 1. Man 2. Woman 3. Both 7.2 What is the distance to get to the market?…………...minutes by………………………………………….(walking, cycling, etc.?) 7.3 How often do you eat potato in your household? (1) Daily (2) Weekly (3) Bi-weekly (4) Monthly 7.4 What are the main challenges you have faced in potato marketing? ……………………………………………………………………….

……………………………………………………………………………..

…………………………………………………………………………….

Annexe 2: Group discussion

Group discussion questions:

1. VARIETY MOTIVATION CHANGES: 1) What varieties have you grown in previous years? 2) Why did you choose these varieties? 3) What variety have you replaced? And why? 4) When were you introduced to Shangi? 5) What would be the top priorities for a new variety? (3 to 5)

2. MARKET: 1) What do the traders want? (note the varieties and the criteria) 2) Why are they purchasing these varieties? 3) Price of varieties? 4) What are the main challenges you have faced in marketing potato? 5) How do you think these challenges can be addressed and by whom?

3. SEED ACCESS: 1) Seeds available? 2) If not, what do you think should be done to improve seed availability? And who should do it? 3) Are you willing to pay for certified seeds? 4) What price?

4. CLIMATE (picture book for enumerators) 1) Changes in climate conditions over the past 10 years? 2) How it has changed 3) What is the effect of these changes on potato production? 4) And how have you responded to these changes? (diseases increased, yields, new pests?) 5) Do you think the current pool of varieties are adapted to climate change? ( stories of varieties)

Annexe 3: Farmer and farm characteristics: results of sampling

a. Household type Interviewee gender distribution varied considerably between Counties. The average was roughly equal: 56% men, 44% women.

Table 10: Interviewee gender per region

Row Labels Man Woman n sampling Bomet 73% 27% 60 Elgeyo Marakwet 60% 40% 62 Meru 43% 57% 49 Nakuru 45% 55% 65 Nandi 31% 69% 13 Uasin Gishu 69% 31% 32 Total 56% 44% 281

The average household has more than five members, including two ‘children’ over 20. 90% of farmers interviewed were married. In some households, a big part of potato production is for home consumption.

b. Age In the overall population of the different districts, 29% of farmers interviewed were between 31 and 40 years. However, in Nandi and Meru, the majority of farmers interviewed were between 41 and 50 years.

Table 11: Percentage of farmers in each age group, per region

Row Labels Younger 21-30 years 31-40 41-50 51-60 Above 60 n sampling than 20 years years years years Bomet 2% 17% 40% 15% 18% 8% 60 Elgeyo Marakwet 0% 23% 26% 23% 19% 10% 62 Meru 0% 8% 21% 31% 25% 15% 49 Nakuru 0% 23% 29% 20% 18% 9% 65 Nandi 0% 0% 23% 46% 23% 8% 13 Uasin Gishu 0% 19% 31% 19% 9% 22% 32 Average / total 0% 18% 29% 23% 19% 11% 281

c. Education Many studies have proved there is a link between education and agricultural practices. In this study, a majority of farmers had completed either secondary (44%) or primary (36%) education (Table 6). However, the majority of Counties has completed a primary level of education: Bomet (38%), Elgeyo-Marakwet (44%), Nandi (38%) and Uasin-Gishu (34%). Overall, 12% had been to college, 3% to university.

Table 12: Level of education completed, per region Education level Bomet Elgeyo Meru Nakuru Nandi Uasin Average Marakwet Gishu None 3% 5% 0% 8% 8% 0% 4% Primary 38% 44% 23% 35% 38% 34% 36% Secondary 37% 44% 56% 48% 31% 34% 44% Agriculture college 3% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% College 8% 8% 10% 8% 23% 25% 11% University 5% 0% 8% 2% 0% 3% 3% Agriculture university 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1%

Education levels also differed between sexes: 37% of women had completed secondary school, as compared to 49% of males (Table 7).

Table 13: The level of education by gender

Row Labels Man Woman None 3% 6% Primary 27% 46% Secondary 49% 37% Agriculture college 1% 1% College 13% 9% University 4% 2% Agriculture 3% 0% university

d. Occupation Most of the farmers depended entirely on agriculture to earn a living. However, many farmers use part of their production for home consumption and need a second occupation to earn enough money. Some of them were working in business, as teachers or in a few other occupations.

Table 14: Occupations, by gender

Row Labels Man Woman Total Farmer only 47% 38% 85% Farmer + Business 2% 3% 6% Farmer + Teacher 3% 1% 5% Farmer + Other 2% 2% 4% Total 56% 44% 100%

e. Network and trainings Access to knowledge, for example through farmer organizations and training, can help farmers to overcome some issues related to diseases, climate, etc. This is particularly important where, as in this study, very few had studied agriculture. 63% of farmers belong to a formal group; 22% specialized in input access, followed by 21% in marketing of produce.

Table 15: Farmer organization services

Functions of the farmer groups Percentage of farmers benefiting Marketing of produce 21% Input access 22% Seed production 17% Farmer research group 4% Pests and disease management 19% Savings and loans 13% Other 5%

72% of the farmers interviewed had already participated in training. They had also received training from various organizations on different topics. These included production techniques (25%), pest and disease control (24%) and new potato varieties (19%).The main focus of these farmer groups and training seems to be on general agricultural practices.

Table 16: Subjects of training

Training subjects Percentage New potato varieties 19% Pest and disease control 24% Production techniques 25% Soil and water management 6%

Crop rotation 12% Storage 7% Marketing 4% Collective action / farmer 2% organizations Other 1%

NGO’s conducted 29% of training sessions. Agricultural officers and Research Institutes also play a major role, with 26% each. Farmers also share knowledge with their friends and neighbors, as well as with other colleagues, for example on market days.

Table 17: Sources of training and advice

Who Percentage Agricultural officers 26% Agricultural cooperative 4% Farmer association 5% NGO’s 29% Research Institute 26% Another farmer 8% Media 1%

6. Potato production

a. Crop production Interviewees’ average total farm size was between 1 and 3 acres, of which they planted potatoes on 0.48 acres and 0.52 acre for the long rains and short rains respectively. Nandi County has the smallest potato production area; farmers there are currently shifting from mainly growing maize to more potato. Many Uasin-Gishu farmers have already made this change; they now plant potatoes on about an acre each season. Their counterparts in Nakuru, Bomet and Elgeyo Marakwet use about half that area.

Table 18: Mean total farm size, and area used for potato production

County Below 1-3 3-5 5-10 10-20 More Average Average 1 acre acres acres acres acres than potato area potato area 20 long rains short rains acres (acre) (acre) Bomet 3% 15% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0.5 0.5

Elgeyo 3% 14% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0.5 0.5 Marakwet Meru 6% 13% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0.3 0.5 Nakuru 5% 14% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0.5 0.5 Nandi 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0.1 0.1 Uasin Gishu 1% 4% 2% 3% 1% 0% 1 1 Total 17% 61% 14% 6% 1% 1% 0.48 0.52

Of the farmers interviewed, 40% were currently growing potatoes and 29% producing maize. The remaining farmers were mainly growing vegetables such as cabbages, beans and kales, primarily for home consumption.

Table 19: Interviewees’ total production acreage per crop and region

Crop Potatoes Maize Beans Cabbage Tea Peas Bomet 17.65 43.1 12.3 4.8 3.45 0 Elgeyo- 54.28 21.45 2.6 4.1 0 1.1 Markawet Meru 28.2 11.85 10.75 6.55 2.88 1.15 Nakuru 32.26 38.36 0.38 2.8 0 2.55 Nandi 7.15 23 0.8 0.6 1 0 Uasin- 46.75 23.95 0.5 2.75 0 0.5 Gishu Total 186.29 161.71 27.33 21.6 7.33 5.3

b. Potato production Potato is the second most important crop in Kenya. Most of our interviewees eat it every day, and most grow the crop twice a year. They then generally wait two seasons before going back to potato production.

Table 20: Potato’s position in farming and household diets

Area (acres) Number of times Number of seasons Frequency of potato grown per year before going back to eating potato (=2 seasons) potato

Bomet 17.65 2 2 Weekly Elgeyo-Markawet 54.28 2 1 Daily Meru 28.2 2 2 Daily Nakuru 32.26 2 1 Daily Nandi 7.15 2 2 Weekly Uasin-Gishu 46.75 2 1-2 Daily

Table 21: Proportion of harvest

Amount harvest Amount Amount sold (kg) (kg) consumed (kg) Season SR LR SR LR SR LR

Bomet 44% 56% 52% 48% 46% 54% Elgeyo- 40% 60% 41% 59% 40% 60% Marakwet Meru 69% 31% 60% 40% 71% 29% Nakuru 53% 47% 59% 41% 54% 46% Nandi 36% 64% 43% 57% 32% 68% Uasin-Gishu 47% 53% 43% 57% 48% 52% Total 51% 49% 50% 50% 51% 49% Total (kg) 1124422 130811 924341

Table 22: Potato varieties grown in the survey areas

Bomet Elgeyo- Meru Nakuru Nandi Uasin-Gishu Total Marakwet Farmers Area Farmers Area Farmers Area Farmers Area Farmers Area Farmers Area Farmers Area growing per growing per growing per growing per growing per growing per growing per this farmer this farmer this farmer this farmer this farmer this farmer this farmer variety (acre) variety (acre) variety (acre) variety (acre) variety (acre) variety (acre) variety (acre) % % % % % % % Shangi 5 0.3 91 0.9 32 0.5 90 0.7 32 0.6 86 1.5 60 0.8 Dutch 87 0.7 2 0.5 9 0.5 14 0.6 Robijn Asante 40 0.6 1 0.1 9 0.5 10 0.6 Sherekea 5 0.3 20 0.5 6 0.2 26 0.3 9 0.4

Gender Fem Male Tot Effectif N=128 N=161 N=289 Hypothesis 1: market demand 76% 70% % of farmers growing a potato market demanded variety 76% 81% % varieties grown for commercial reasons Hypothesis 2: risks due to climate 100% 100% 289 (100%) % of farmers experienced loss due to climate 6% 8% 20 (7%) % of farmers who changed the variety after have experienced loss Hypothesis 2 risks due to pest and 96% 93% 249 (86%) % of farmers experienced loss due to disease pest and disease 6% 4% 12 (5%) % of farmers who changed the variety after have experienced loss Hypothesis 2: risks due to lack of 16% 23% 58 (20%) % of farmers experienced loss due to market lack of market 14% 20% 10 (17%) % of farmers who changed the variety after have experienced loss Hypothesis 3: income generation High yield (83%) High yield (83%) High yield (83%) Adoption criteria Notes:

Hypothesis 1: 76% of women grow a potato market demanded variety and 76% (of the 76%) for commercial reasons. And 70% of men grow potato market demanded variety and 81% (of the 70%) for commercial reasons. For hypothesis 1, the results are the same between men and women.

Hypothesis 2 (climate): 100% of both men and women have experienced loss due to adverse weather: 6% of women have decided to change the variety after that and 8% for men. For hypothesis 2, the results are the same between men and women.

Hypothesis 2 (pest and diseases): 96% of women and 93% of men have experienced loss due to pest and diseases: 6% (of the 96%) of women have decided to change the variety after that and 4% (of the 93%) for men. For hypothesis 2, the results are the same between men and women.

Hypothesis 2 (lack of market): 16% of women and 23% of men have experienced loss due to lack of market: 14% (of the 16%) of women have decided to change the variety after that and 20% (of the 23%) for men. For hypothesis 2, the results are the same between men and women.

Hypothesis 3: 83% of both men and women decide to choose a new potato variety according to the high yield. For hypothesis 3, the results are the same between men and women.

For the three hypothesis, the reasons for adoption and dis-adoption of a potato variety are the same between men and women.