Climate Change in Kenya

HEAD body CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA: focus on children © UNICEF/François d’Elbee INTRODUCTION 1 KENYA: CLIMATE CHANGE 3 MOMBASA 5 GARISSA 7 CONTENTS LODWAR 9 NAIROBI 11 KISUMU 13 NAKURU 15 KERICHO 17 NYERI 19 CONCLUSION 21 APPENDIX: CLIMATE TABLES 23 REFERENCES 27 ENDNOTES AND ACRONYMS 28 © UNICEF/François d’Elbee INTRODUCTION “Our home was UNICEF UK and UNICEF Kenya have produced this case study to destroyed by the floods highlight the specific challenges for and we have nothing children related to climate change left. My parents cannot in Kenya; bringing climate models to life with stories from children even afford to pay my in different regions. The study older siblings’ school fees provides examples of how UNICEF can support children in Kenya to since we have no cows adapt to and reduce the impact of left to sell.” climate change. Nixon Bwire, age 13, Tana River Climate change is already having a significant effect on children’s well-being in Kenya. The impact on children is likely to increase significantly over time; the extent of the impact depends on how quickly and successfully global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced as well as the ability to adapt to climate change. Climate models show the range of likely future impacts. The projections in this paper use the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the University of Oxford School of Geography and Environment interpretation of scenario A2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). They used an ensemble of 15 models to arrive at the figures used here. Scenario A2 posits regionally oriented economic development and has slower and more fragmented economic and technological development than other scenarios. It assumes the global population reaches over 10 billion by 2050, and that greenhouse gases will increase. The UNDP notes that users of the information should bear in mind that the model data for the future are not predictions of climate, but model simulations of future climate under a range of hypothetical emissions scenarios and should be interpreted with caution. However, one change is certain: there will be less predictable weather patterns over the coming © UNICEF/François d’Elbee Climate change in Kenya: focus on children 1 “Climate change is decades in Kenya. Children and Better understanding of the differing communities will need support, risks posed by climate change affecting us and, in the skills and infrastructure to ensure within Kenya is vital in order to future if we are not they can survive and thrive in the ensure development within these involved, we will live in face of this uncertainty. environmental changes. Tools that enable climate change data to be a desert. The rivers have This case study provides examples easily accessible and regularly dried up and sand mining of the type of support that may updated will be an essential part be needed to prevent or reduce of every country’s abillity to reduce has increased, this has future impacts of climate change. risk and future impacts. Funding for caused many children By involving children in climate disaster risk reduction and climate to drop out of school to adaptation and disaster risk resilience programmes is vital to reduction programmes, there is protect children’s rights to survive work loading vehicles potential for improved outcomes. and thrive – rights such as clean for mines” Equipping the next generations with water, food and the chance to go the skills and knowledge to thrive to school. Samuel, age 14, Machakos in a changing climate is becoming increasingly important. This case study describes programmes that can help communities in Kenya adapt to specific challenges posed by climate change. These examples are based on successful UNICEF programmes in other countries facing similar climatic challenges to Kenya. © UNICEF/François d’Elbee Climate change in Kenya: focus on children 2 KENYA: CLIMATE CHANGE ativ CLIMATE PROFILE CLIMATE CHANGE NOW Kenya’s landscape rises from the Climate models can only predict a Indian Ocean in the east to the range of possible future scenarios. edge of the East African Plateau and However, we know that Kenya’s the Great Rift Valley in the west. climate is already changing. Average The country straddles the equator. annual temperatures increased by Temperatures in Kenya’s tropical 1°C between 1960 and 2003, with climate vary considerably according most warming taking place in the to topography; the central highlands ‘long rains’ season of March, April are substantially cooler than the and May, which is also the primary coast, with the coolest (highest planting season. altitude) regions at 15°C compared with 29°C at the coast. The days are getting hotter in Kenya, with ‘hot days’ up by 57 Kenya lies within the Inter-Tropical every year, equal to a rise of 15 Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a narrow per cent between 1960 and 2003. belt of very high rainfall that forms There are relatively more ‘hot days’ near the equator. The ITCZ brings during the ‘long rains’ season – FIGURE 1: Country map of Kenya, rain southwards through Kenya an additional 18.8 per cent. The showing major cities and regions. from October to December average number of hot nights per (the ‘short rains’), passing again year has increased even more, northwards in March, April and by 113. May (the ‘long rains’). Kenya has experienced both The timing of these two rainy prolonged droughts and intense seasons, how long they last and flooding every year since 2000. their intensity varies from year to As well as an increase in such year. As is the case for the climate extreme weather events, the across the rest of sub-Saharan glaciers around Mount Kenya have Africa, the surface temperature disappeared, leading to the drying of the water in the Indian Ocean up of river streams. Such changes greatly influences the rainfall pattern have already led to harvest losses in Kenya. This surface temperature and food shortages, as well as varies from year to year. The most landslides, soil degradation and important influence is the El Niño a loss of biodiversity. Pests for Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El humans, plants and animals are Niño episodes usually cause greater also increasing. Fewer cold days than average short rains, while cold and nights is contributing to the phases (La Niña) bring a drier than spread of malaria to new areas. average season. The diminishing water sources and erratic rainfalls have also reduced the availability of water. These trends have negative impacts on child survival and development through increasing childhood exposure to disease and reducing access to safe water for children and their families. Climate change in Kenya: focus on children 3 © UNICEF/François d’Elbee FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR KENYA All models show that, by 2100, The Intergovernmental Panel on Under current projections, the there will be more intense rains Climate Change (IPCC) currently UNDP estimates that Kenya’s during the wet seasons. Floods will predicts an 18 to 59 cm rise in average annual temperature be more common and severe. The global sea level by 2100. This may will rise by between 1°C (the frequency of droughts is likely to be have a significant impact on the lowest estimate) and 5°C (highest the same as now, but they will also coastal belt in Kenya, particularly estimate) during the next century. be more severe due to the rise in around Mombasa. This has the overall temperatures. The increased potential to cause increased coastal Up to 2100, the period of the rains severity of droughts will reduce flooding and the salination of will remain the same (both the crop yields and crop diversity, which coastal agricultural land. However, short and long seasons), but each will also have a significant impact on model simulations show wide rainy season will become wetter, livestock. These conditions will lead disagreements in projected changes particularly the ‘short rains’ (from to increased malnutrition among in the severity of future El Niño October to December). Global children, as parents are unable events (Christensen et al., 2007). climate models predict an increase to feed their families. The UNDP of 40 per cent in rainfall in northern estimates that if a child in Kenya is The following sections analyse Kenya by the end of the century, born in a drought year, the likelihood the situation in different areas of while a regional model suggests of them being malnourished Kenya and look at potential steps that there may be greater rainfall in increases by up to 50 per cent. to help families and children adapt the west. to the impact of climate change in these areas. Climate change in Kenya: focus on children 4 ativ MOMBASA PRESENT DAY FIGURE 3 Projections of mean Mombasa is Kenya’s second largest monthly high and low temperatures city and the major port in East in Mombasa for 2030, 2060 and Africa. The city is home to around 2090, as well as the actual mean 900,000 people, and every year monthly temperatures for 2009. swelled by the many thousands of tourists who visit Mombasa’s FIGURE 4 High and low projections beaches. Built on low-lying ground, of the mean monthly precipitation in much of Mombasa is close to sea Mombasa for 2030, 2060 and 2090, level. This makes the city highly as well as the actual mean monthly vulnerable to climate change. It precipitation in 2009. has a history of weather-related disasters, particularly floods, which occur almost annually. The ADAPTING TO CLIMATE floods in October 2006 affected CHANGE IN MOMBASA 60,000 people in the city and the Flooding: preparing surrounding Coastal Province, for emergencies displacing more than 20,000 people UNICEF has previously run FIGURE 2: Map showing Mombasa from their homes and destroying emergency preparedness and surrounding area.

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