DOCSLIB.ORG

Analytic Tradecraft in the U.S. Intelligence Community

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Analytic Tradecraft in the U.S. Intelligence Community Walden University ScholarWorks Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection 2017 Analytic Tradecraft in the .SU . Intelligence Community John Joseph Borek Walden University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations Part of the Organizational Behavior and Theory Commons, and the Public Policy Commons This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection at ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Walden University College of Social and Behavioral Sciences This is to certify that the doctoral dissertation by John J. Borek has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the review committee have been made. Review Committee Dr. Morris Bidjerano, Committee Chairperson, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr. Ron Hirschbein, Committee Member, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr. Gregory Campbell, University Reviewer, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Chief Academic Officer Eric Riedel, Ph.D. Walden University 2017 Abstract Analytic Tradecraft in the U.S. Intelligence Community by John J. Borek MS, National Intelligence University, 1996 BS, The Pennsylvania State University, 1984 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy and Administration Walden University July 2017 Abstract The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 addressed the belief that weak analytic tradecraft had been an underlying cause of intelligence failures in the U.S. by requiring the Director of National Intelligence to establish and enforce tradecraft standards throughout the U.S. intelligence community (IC). However, analytic tradecraft―the innate abilities and learned skills of intelligence analysts, combined with the tools and technology needed to conduct analysis―is an understudied and poorly understood concept and a decade later, the frequency of intelligence failures has not improved. Using actor-network theory (ANT) as the foundation, the purpose of this qualitative narrative study was to gain greater clarity regarding the process of intelligence analysis and corresponding tradecraft. Data were collected through 7 semi-structured interviews from a purposely selected sample of U.S intelligence analysts to determine how they understood and navigated the analytic process. These data were inductively coded, and following the tenets of the ANT, the process and actors involved in transforming customer requirements and intelligence information into analytic products and refined collection requirements were identified and mapped. The central finding of this study is that current tradecraft standards address neither the full range of activities taking place nor the complete roster of actors involved in the analytic process. With this knowledge, the U.S. IC may be better positioned to identify specific training and equipment shortfalls, develop tailored reform efforts, and improve intelligence operations, resulting in potential positive social change. Analytic Tradecraft in the U.S. Intelligence Community by John J. Borek MS, National Intelligence University, 1996 BS, The Pennsylvania State University, 1984 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy and Administration Walden University July 2017 Dedication I have been fortunate in my life to be surrounded by people who have loved me, supported me, and fostered my love of learning. Without a doubt, my parents and many of my teachers through the years have played an especially significant role in providing the foundation that helped me achieve this dream. Ultimately though, there is only one person to whom I could possibly dedicate the culmination of this effort, and that is my wife. Pamela has pushed, pulled, and carried me through this journey, and has had my back every step of the way. It is not an exaggeration to say that without her strength and spirit and belief in me, the words that follow in this dissertation would still be just random thoughts in my head and an unfulfilled desire in my heart. Acknowledgments I would like to take this opportunity to thank some of those who have helped me on this journey. First are my committee members, Dr. Bidjerano, Dr. Hirschbein, Dr. Campbell, and Dr. Gage. All have had their part in helping me become a more critical thinker, researcher, and writer. I especially appreciate Dr. B’s optimism and positive outlook and his certainty in this project and my ability to see it through. After every conversation or e-mail with him, I was ready to dig in and keep going again. No research effort based on narrative accounts would be possible without the willingness of participants to tell their story. To those who took time out of their day to respond to a request to participate in this study, I will always be grateful. I believe that your words will help others become more aware of the work of intelligence analysts as well as aid efforts to improve the profession of analysis. Working full time while pursuing any degree requires the cooperation of those paying one’s salary. Over the years, I have had no fewer than seven immediate supervisors, and all did whatever they could to help me balance the load. To my colleagues at work and my friends and family, all of whom have provided words of encouragement along the way, thank you. I hope you never underestimate the power of a positive word or a shared moment of enthusiasm. And of course to my wife, who has never doubted or let me forget that “with God all things are possible.” Table of Contents List of Figures ......................................................................................................................v Chapter 1: Introduction to the Study ....................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 Background ....................................................................................................................2 Problem Statement .........................................................................................................3 Purpose of the Study ......................................................................................................5 Research Questions ........................................................................................................6 Conceptual Framework ..................................................................................................6 Nature of the Study ........................................................................................................9 Definitions....................................................................................................................10 Assumptions .................................................................................................................12 Scope and Delimitations ..............................................................................................13 Limitations ...................................................................................................................13 Significance of the Study .............................................................................................14 Summary ......................................................................................................................16 Chapter 2: Literature Review .............................................................................................17 Introduction ..................................................................................................................17 Literature Search Strategy............................................................................................20 Intelligence Analysis and the Actor-Network Theory – the Conceptual Framework .......................................................................................................21 Related Studies Using ANT .................................................................................. 25 i Key Variables and Concepts ........................................................................................27 Background of the U.S. Intelligence Community ................................................. 27 The Intelligence Cycle .......................................................................................... 29 The Analytic Process ...................................................................................................31 Improving Analysis by Improving Inputs: Collection .................................................38 Improving Analysis by Improving Outputs: Analytic Transparency ..........................39 Improving Analysis by Legislation: The IRTPA .........................................................43 Summary and Conclusions ..........................................................................................49 Chapter 3: Research Method ..............................................................................................51 Introduction ..................................................................................................................51
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Trends Toward Real-Time Network Data Steganography
    TRENDS TOWARD REAL-TIME NETWORK DATA STEGANOGRAPHY James Collins, Sos Agaian Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas, USA [email protected], [email protected] Abstract Network steganography has been a well-known covert data channeling method for over three decades. The basic set of techniques and implementation tools have not changed significantly since their introduction in the early 1980’s. In this paper, we review the predominant methods of classical network steganography, describing the detailed operations and resultant challenges involved in embedding data in the network transport domain. We also consider the various cyber threat vectors of network steganography and point out the major differences between classical network steganography and the widely known end-point multimedia embedding techniques, which focus exclusively on static data modification for data hiding. We then challenge the security community by introducing an entirely new network data hiding methodology, which we refer to as real-time network data steganography. Finally, we provide the groundwork for this fundamental change of covert network data embedding by introducing a system-level implementation for real-time network data operations that will open the path for even further advances in computer network security. KEYWORDS Network Steganography, Real-time Networking, TCP/IP Communications, Network Protocols 1. INTRODUCTION Even though the origins of steganography reach back to the time of ancient Greece, to Herodotus in 440 BC, the art of steganography continues to evolve. This is especially true in the technical methods of digital embedding [1][2]. Digital steganography has been used since the early 1980’s and network steganography techniques quickly evolved with the advent of the Internet and standardized multimedia formats used for data exchange [3].
    [Show full text]
  • SPYCATCHER by PETER WRIGHT with Paul Greengrass WILLIAM
    SPYCATCHER by PETER WRIGHT with Paul Greengrass WILLIAM HEINEMANN: AUSTRALIA First published in 1987 by HEINEMANN PUBLISHERS AUSTRALIA (A division of Octopus Publishing Group/Australia Pty Ltd) 85 Abinger Street, Richmond, Victoria, 3121. Copyright (c) 1987 by Peter Wright ISBN 0-85561-166-9 All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of the publisher. TO MY WIFE LOIS Prologue For years I had wondered what the last day would be like. In January 1976 after two decades in the top echelons of the British Security Service, MI5, it was time to rejoin the real world. I emerged for the final time from Euston Road tube station. The winter sun shone brightly as I made my way down Gower Street toward Trafalgar Square. Fifty yards on I turned into the unmarked entrance to an anonymous office block. Tucked between an art college and a hospital stood the unlikely headquarters of British Counterespionage. I showed my pass to the policeman standing discreetly in the reception alcove and took one of the specially programmed lifts which carry senior officers to the sixth-floor inner sanctum. I walked silently down the corridor to my room next to the Director-General's suite. The offices were quiet. Far below I could hear the rumble of tube trains carrying commuters to the West End. I unlocked my door. In front of me stood the essential tools of the intelligence officer’s trade - a desk, two telephones, one scrambled for outside calls, and to one side a large green metal safe with an oversized combination lock on the front.
    [Show full text]
  • Inside Russia's Intelligence Agencies
    EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN BRIEF POLICY RELATIONS ecfr.eu PUTIN’S HYDRA: INSIDE RUSSIA’S INTELLIGENCE SERVICES Mark Galeotti For his birthday in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin was treated to an exhibition of faux Greek friezes showing SUMMARY him in the guise of Hercules. In one, he was slaying the • Russia’s intelligence agencies are engaged in an “hydra of sanctions”.1 active and aggressive campaign in support of the Kremlin’s wider geopolitical agenda. The image of the hydra – a voracious and vicious multi- headed beast, guided by a single mind, and which grows • As well as espionage, Moscow’s “special services” new heads as soon as one is lopped off – crops up frequently conduct active measures aimed at subverting in discussions of Russia’s intelligence and security services. and destabilising European governments, Murdered dissident Alexander Litvinenko and his co-author operations in support of Russian economic Yuri Felshtinsky wrote of the way “the old KGB, like some interests, and attacks on political enemies. multi-headed hydra, split into four new structures” after 1991.2 More recently, a British counterintelligence officer • Moscow has developed an array of overlapping described Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) as and competitive security and spy services. The a hydra because of the way that, for every plot foiled or aim is to encourage risk-taking and multiple operative expelled, more quickly appear. sources, but it also leads to turf wars and a tendency to play to Kremlin prejudices. The West finds itself in a new “hot peace” in which many consider Russia not just as an irritant or challenge, but • While much useful intelligence is collected, as an outright threat.
    [Show full text]
  • Intel Management Model for Europe
    INTELLIGENCE MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR EUROPE PHASE ONE Guidelines for standards and best practice within the analysis function Contents Foreword 5 Acknowledgements 6 1. Executive Summary 7 Recruitment 8 Trainee Analyst - The Benefits 9 Training Programme for Police Analysts 10 Intelligence Training for Law Enforcement Personnel 10 Career Structure for Analyst Personnel 11 2. Recruitment 12 Person Specification 12 Pre-Selection 15 The Interview 15 3. Trainee Analyst - The Benefits 17 The Police Service of Northern Ireland 17 Belgian Federal Police 19 4. Training Programme for Police Analysts 20 Approach 1: The Police Service of Northern Ireland 20 Approach 2: The Belgian Federal Police 21 Approach 3: National Criminal Intelligence Service (NCIS) UK 22 5. Intelligence Training for Law Enforcement Personnel 23 Probationary Officers 23 Intelligence Officers 24 Analyst Managers 26 6. Career Structure for Analyst Personnel 28 7. Recommended References 30 3 List of Figures Figure 1: The Intelligence Cycle 7 Figure 2: Person Specification for Intelligence Analyst 14 Figure 3: PSNI Analyst Development Programme 18 Figure 4: Organisational Structure for Analysts - Strathclyde Police 28 Figure 5: Organisational Structure for Analysts - PSNI 29 4 Foreword The first tentative steps towards the development of an Intelligence Management Model for Europe were taken during early 2001. It was then that consideration was given to a proposed agenda for the forthcoming European Heads of Training Conference to be held in Scotland in June that same year. Many such conferences, in all disciplines, provide useful guidance and information to those in attendance. Often however there is little or no resultant legacy in terms of actual and tangible continuous development.
    [Show full text]
  • Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
    ATP 2-22.9 Open-Source Intelligence July 2012 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Unlimited Distribution Headquarters, Department of the Army *ATP 2-22.9 Army Techniques Publication Headquarters No. 2-22.9 (FMI 2-22.9) Department of the Army Washington, DC, 10 July 2012 Open-Source Intelligence Contents Page PREFACE.............................................................................................................. iv INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... v Chapter 1 OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE (OSINT) FUNDAMENTALS ........................ 1-1 Definition and Terms .......................................................................................... 1-1 Characteristics .................................................................................................... 1-1 The Intelligence Warfighting Function ................................................................ 1-2 The Intelligence Process .................................................................................... 1-3 The Planning Requirements and Assessing Collection Process ........................ 1-4 The Military Decisionmaking Process ................................................................ 1-4 Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield ........................................................... 1-5 Chapter 2 PLANNING AND PREPARATION OF THE OSINT MISSION ............................. 2-1 Section I – Planning OSINT Activities ...........................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Office of Intelligence and Analysis Strategic Plan, FY 2020-2024
    UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT NOT FOR DISSEMINATION UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT NOT FOR DISSEMINATION UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT NOT FOR DISSEMINATION UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT NOT FOR DISSEMINATION UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT NOT FOR DISSEMINATION I am pleased to publish the Office of Intelligence & Analysis Strategic Plan for Fiscal Years 2020-2024. This document provides a holistic approach that will guide the continued evolution of the Office over the next five years and serves as a foundational document for how DHS Intelligence executes its broad mission and vision. Following the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks, the Homeland Security Act of 2002 created the Department of Homeland Security and the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007 established the Office of Intelligence & Analysis as the first federal agency statutorily mandated to share intelligence with state, local, tribal, and territorial law enforcement, as well as the private sector—creating the necessity for a comprehensive approach and strategy to Homeland security. I&A provides timely, actionable intelligence to a far-reaching base of customers and partners—from the DHS Secretary and Components, policymakers, and the Intelligence Community to an expansive network of state, local, tribal, territorial, and private-sector partners with both national and global influence. Therefore, this strategy outlines a forward-leaning approach to provide dominant capabilities and anticipatory intelligence to meet the diverse needs of DHS partners, customers, and stakeholders. The threat environment is never static, thus I&A will remain dynamic in its actions to combat the challenges of today, as well as the future, through partnerships, information sharing, and a concrete understanding of the evolving landscape at home and beyond our Nation’s borders.
    [Show full text]
  • Espionage Against the United States by American Citizens 1947-2001
    Technical Report 02-5 July 2002 Espionage Against the United States by American Citizens 1947-2001 Katherine L. Herbig Martin F. Wiskoff TRW Systems Released by James A. Riedel Director Defense Personnel Security Research Center 99 Pacific Street, Building 455-E Monterey, CA 93940-2497 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing the burden, to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704- 0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DDMMYYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From – To) July 2002 Technical 1947 - 2001 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER Espionage Against the United States by American Citizens 1947-2001 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER Katherine L. Herbig, Ph.D. Martin F. Wiskoff, Ph.D. 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8.
    [Show full text]
  • Outsourcing Intelligence Analysis: Legal and Policy Risks
    STUDENT NOTE Outsourcing Intelligence Analysis: Legal and Policy Risks Joshua R. Storm* INTRODUCTION Intelligence reduces uncertainty in con¯ict, whether in trade negotiations between allies with similar, but individual interests, or in combat operations against a foreign state or terrorist group.1 Providing this intelligence involves col- lecting, processing, analyzing, and disseminating information to decision mak- ers.2 Key among these is analysis, de®ned by the R AND Corp. as ªthe process by which the information collected about an enemy is used to answer tactical ques- tions about current operations or to predict future behavior.º3 Beyond the tactical level, analysis is also necessary to provide the strategic and operational intelli- gence required to establish overarching policies and to develop operational plans to execute those policies. 4 In this manner, analysis is one of the most critical func- tions provided by the civilian and military entities that make up the intelligence community (IC). At the same time, analysis often is not performed by govern- ment personnel. For example, of core contract personnel within the intelligence community, 19 percent directly supported analysis and production as of 2007.5 This note explores the rise of outsourcing in the intelligence community and examines the legal and policy implications of outsourcing intelligence analysis in particular. First, it discusses the organizational and operational pressures that led to the increased use of contractors in the intelligence community after the September 11, 2001 attacks. Next, it identi®es the origins of the inherently gov- ernmental function test, used to determine when a government activity be out- sourced.
    [Show full text]
  • Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders
    Perspective EXPERT INSIGHTS ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUE September 2018 CORTNEY WEINBAUM, JOHN V. PARACHINI, RICHARD S. GIRVEN, MICHAEL H. DECKER, RICHARD C. BAFFA Perspectives and Opportunities in Intelligence for U.S. Leaders C O R P O R A T I O N Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 2. Reconstituting Strategic Warning for the Digital Age .................................5 3. Unifying Tasking, Collection, Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination (TCPED) Across the U.S. Intelligence Community ...............16 4. Managing Security as an Enterprise .........................................................25 5. Better Utilizing Publicly Available Information ..........................................31 6. Surging Intelligence in an Unpredictable World .......................................44 7. Conclusion .................................................................................................56 Abbreviations ................................................................................................57 References ....................................................................................................58 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................64 About the Authors .........................................................................................64 The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make
    [Show full text]
  • Critical Analysis of German Operational Intelligence Part II
    UNCLASSIFIED Critical Analysis of German Operational Intelligence Part II Sources of Intelligence work, and many German field orders stress the impor­ tance of the capture, preservation, and quick evalua­ The study of sources and types of intelligence tion of enemy documents; but they paid scant atten­ available to the Germans shows clearly how the inher­ tion to adequate training of personnel, and no ent weaknesses· of their intelligence system extended outstanding work seems to have been done. During the to their detailed work. The insufficient importance second half of the war, the amount of captured they attributed to intelligence meant that all its documents in German hands decreased, owing to the branches suffered from shortage of personnel and nature of their defensive warfare, and the opportunity equipment; and, although in some fields there was an for good document work became fewer. approach to German thoroughness, in the main the That the Germans were capable of good detailed lack of attention to detail was surprising. work is shown by their practice in the Internment The interrogation of prisoners of war, which they Center for Captured Air Force Personnel at Oberursel, regarded as one of their most fruitful sources of where all Allied air crews were first interrogated. The information, is a good example. In the beginning of German specialists here realized the value of combined the war, their need for detailed and comprehensive document and interrogation work, and devised an interrogation was small; but even later, a standard excellent system of analysis. In order to identify the OKH questionnaire was still being used and at no time units of their prisoners - a matter of the highest was much initiative shown on the part of interrogators.
    [Show full text]
  • Tradecraff in ANCIENT GREECE
    DECLASSIFIED Authority NND 947003 Strategemata I I TRADECRAFf IN ANCIENT GREECE Rose Mary Sheldon 1 The ancient Greeks knew a great deal about the ins and outs of spying, but they did not make our modern terminology distinctions among intelligence collection, security, counterintelligence, and covert operations. If the Greeks did h~ve a word for it, it was strategemata, the single heading under which they gtouped all such activities. We are able to study these "strategems of war" today, t~anks to the survival of several Greek military handbooks, called strategika biblia. Their chapters on intelligence gathering instruct a commander in what w~uld today be called tradecraft: the finer arts of running agents, sending secret rriessages, using codes. ciphers, disguises, and surveillance. We can also glean information from the works of Greek historians and other ancient writers who, even if they are not primarily concerned with military matters, do refer occa­ sibnally to techniques of secret operations. Here is a look at what these sources h~ve to say about the " how to do it" of ancient spying. Of all the surviving military treatises, by far the best is the one written about ~7 B.C. by Aeneas the Tactician-another name, it is thought, for Aeneas of Stymphalos, general of the Arcadian Confederacy. As a fourth-century com­ mlmder, he very likely served most of his time as a mercenary soldier. The Arcadians had been the first Greeks to turn to soldiering as a profession and were mhre in demand than any other mercenaries. They were said to have been the first practical instructors in the art of war.
    [Show full text]
  • ATP 2-33.4 Intelligence Analysis
    ATP 2-33.4 Intelligence Analysis JANUARY 2020 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This publication supersedes ATP 2-33.4, dated 18 August 2014. Headquarters, Department of the Army This publication is available at Army Knowledge Online (https://armypubs.army.mil), and the Central Army Registry site (https://atiam.train.army.mil/catalog/dashboard). *ATP 2-33.4 Army Techniques Publication Headquarters No. 2-33.4 Department of the Army Washington, DC, 10 January 2020 Intelligence Analysis Contents Page PREFACE............................................................................................................. vii INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... xi PART ONE FUNDAMENTALS Chapter 1 UNDERSTANDING INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS ............................................. 1-1 Intelligence Analysis Overview ........................................................................... 1-1 Conducting Intelligence Analysis ........................................................................ 1-5 Intelligence Analysis and Collection Management ............................................. 1-8 The All-Source Intelligence Architecture and Analysis Across the Echelons ..... 1-9 Intelligence Analysis During Large-Scale Ground Combat Operations ........... 1-11 Intelligence Analysis During the Army’s Other Strategic Roles ........................ 1-13 Chapter 2 THE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS PROCESS ..................................................
    [Show full text]