Walden University ScholarWorks Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection 2017 Analytic Tradecraft in the .SU . Intelligence Community John Joseph Borek Walden University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations Part of the Organizational Behavior and Theory Commons, and the Public Policy Commons This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection at ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Walden University College of Social and Behavioral Sciences This is to certify that the doctoral dissertation by John J. Borek has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the review committee have been made. Review Committee Dr. Morris Bidjerano, Committee Chairperson, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr. Ron Hirschbein, Committee Member, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr. Gregory Campbell, University Reviewer, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Chief Academic Officer Eric Riedel, Ph.D. Walden University 2017 Abstract Analytic Tradecraft in the U.S. Intelligence Community by John J. Borek MS, National Intelligence University, 1996 BS, The Pennsylvania State University, 1984 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy and Administration Walden University July 2017 Abstract The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 addressed the belief that weak analytic tradecraft had been an underlying cause of intelligence failures in the U.S. by requiring the Director of National Intelligence to establish and enforce tradecraft standards throughout the U.S. intelligence community (IC). However, analytic tradecraft―the innate abilities and learned skills of intelligence analysts, combined with the tools and technology needed to conduct analysis―is an understudied and poorly understood concept and a decade later, the frequency of intelligence failures has not improved. Using actor-network theory (ANT) as the foundation, the purpose of this qualitative narrative study was to gain greater clarity regarding the process of intelligence analysis and corresponding tradecraft. Data were collected through 7 semi-structured interviews from a purposely selected sample of U.S intelligence analysts to determine how they understood and navigated the analytic process. These data were inductively coded, and following the tenets of the ANT, the process and actors involved in transforming customer requirements and intelligence information into analytic products and refined collection requirements were identified and mapped. The central finding of this study is that current tradecraft standards address neither the full range of activities taking place nor the complete roster of actors involved in the analytic process. With this knowledge, the U.S. IC may be better positioned to identify specific training and equipment shortfalls, develop tailored reform efforts, and improve intelligence operations, resulting in potential positive social change. Analytic Tradecraft in the U.S. Intelligence Community by John J. Borek MS, National Intelligence University, 1996 BS, The Pennsylvania State University, 1984 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy and Administration Walden University July 2017 Dedication I have been fortunate in my life to be surrounded by people who have loved me, supported me, and fostered my love of learning. Without a doubt, my parents and many of my teachers through the years have played an especially significant role in providing the foundation that helped me achieve this dream. Ultimately though, there is only one person to whom I could possibly dedicate the culmination of this effort, and that is my wife. Pamela has pushed, pulled, and carried me through this journey, and has had my back every step of the way. It is not an exaggeration to say that without her strength and spirit and belief in me, the words that follow in this dissertation would still be just random thoughts in my head and an unfulfilled desire in my heart. Acknowledgments I would like to take this opportunity to thank some of those who have helped me on this journey. First are my committee members, Dr. Bidjerano, Dr. Hirschbein, Dr. Campbell, and Dr. Gage. All have had their part in helping me become a more critical thinker, researcher, and writer. I especially appreciate Dr. B’s optimism and positive outlook and his certainty in this project and my ability to see it through. After every conversation or e-mail with him, I was ready to dig in and keep going again. No research effort based on narrative accounts would be possible without the willingness of participants to tell their story. To those who took time out of their day to respond to a request to participate in this study, I will always be grateful. I believe that your words will help others become more aware of the work of intelligence analysts as well as aid efforts to improve the profession of analysis. Working full time while pursuing any degree requires the cooperation of those paying one’s salary. Over the years, I have had no fewer than seven immediate supervisors, and all did whatever they could to help me balance the load. To my colleagues at work and my friends and family, all of whom have provided words of encouragement along the way, thank you. I hope you never underestimate the power of a positive word or a shared moment of enthusiasm. And of course to my wife, who has never doubted or let me forget that “with God all things are possible.” Table of Contents List of Figures ......................................................................................................................v Chapter 1: Introduction to the Study ....................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 Background ....................................................................................................................2 Problem Statement .........................................................................................................3 Purpose of the Study ......................................................................................................5 Research Questions ........................................................................................................6 Conceptual Framework ..................................................................................................6 Nature of the Study ........................................................................................................9 Definitions....................................................................................................................10 Assumptions .................................................................................................................12 Scope and Delimitations ..............................................................................................13 Limitations ...................................................................................................................13 Significance of the Study .............................................................................................14 Summary ......................................................................................................................16 Chapter 2: Literature Review .............................................................................................17 Introduction ..................................................................................................................17 Literature Search Strategy............................................................................................20 Intelligence Analysis and the Actor-Network Theory – the Conceptual Framework .......................................................................................................21 Related Studies Using ANT .................................................................................. 25 i Key Variables and Concepts ........................................................................................27 Background of the U.S. Intelligence Community ................................................. 27 The Intelligence Cycle .......................................................................................... 29 The Analytic Process ...................................................................................................31 Improving Analysis by Improving Inputs: Collection .................................................38 Improving Analysis by Improving Outputs: Analytic Transparency ..........................39 Improving Analysis by Legislation: The IRTPA .........................................................43 Summary and Conclusions ..........................................................................................49 Chapter 3: Research Method ..............................................................................................51 Introduction ..................................................................................................................51