NIGERIA Public Disclosure Authorized

I ;J~;~I~ JA Y\J~L~ RESTRICTED Report No. PTR-27a

This report was prepared for use Public Disclosure Authorized within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.

!NTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized

APPRAISAL OF A

HiGHWAY REHABILITAT-ION PROJEvCT

NIGERIA Public Disclosure Authorized

September 10, 1969 Public Disclosure Authorized

Tranlsportation Projects Department CURRZENCY EQUIVALENTS

C-urrency Unit-- N;gean Pound (NL)

US$1 = NE0. 357 N11, 000, 000 US$2,800,000

FISCAL YEAR

April 1 - March 31

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES British/ US

EQUIVALENT METRIC SYSTEM

1 mile (mi) = 1. 61 kilometers (km) 1 foot (ft) = 0. 305 meters (m) 1 ton = 1. 016 kiloQrams (kg?

ABBRELVT A 'TIONSTC ANDT-TT ACROt7NTYM1

ADT - Average dailv traffic KAMPSAX Kampmann, Kierulff and S-axild A-/S0 MOW - Federal Ministry of Works and Housing NRC - Nigerian Railway Corporation UNDP United Nations Develonpment Programme vpd vehicles per day NIGERIA

APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY REHABILITATION PROJECT

Tab:le of Contents

P'age

SUMMARY AMND CONCLUSIONS ...... o.00

1o INTRODUC.TION .00 ...... 900000000000000 ...... 0

0 0 .... 0 20 BACKGROUND ... 00000...... 00 0000

A * General *.Oo. ooo.eao. ooo ....ooeooao. o .. o.a *. *oooa ,o a,0000 3 B. The Transport Sector ...... 0000000 0 00000 00 0 . 0

3. THE HIGHWAY SYSTEM ...... 7

A The Highway Network ...... 7 Be Federal Highway Administration ..*...* 7 C. Highway Maintenance *..*...... *o.*... 7 D-n Reorganization of the Highwav System and 8 Reclassification of Trunk Roads

4. THE PRCIJECT ...... o...... *oo oooooo.o.oooooo .*o o 10

A. Description ...00.090 0 9000000o.e*oo 00*. 10 B. Coet Estimates 0.* .... ……-. - --- oo--- 3.2 C. Project Execution ***00 0000000 000 00 -000.000 00000-- 0 0 13 De Loal: rFinancend Disbuoservant ...-...... L

r, r.1^O1*v -e ~'L?A TTTA r R

- 99 .... A. Genrer-l-vu. OooOoO .G oo 0 15 B. Rehabilitation of Trunk Road Al Lagos-Ilorin .*.****.***900.00 15 U. Reh,ab-t-abion ofP T-unlk Road AO Aagos-Evuekoro. 17 D. Detailed Engineering of a New Lagos-Ilbadan Road O o OOOOO 17

6. RECOMMENDATIONS ..0.0.0...... 000....00 000.0....0000 0. 18

T-his report was prepared by Messrs. A. Bergarn and A. van Dijck (engi-e:rs) ,xnd T. Oursin (economist). -2-

TaWLe O. Cofterts (cop.ninued)

TABLES

1. Network of Trunk "A" and "B" Roads by State and Surface 2.. VAh>re OnArating Gost Data

1* Design. Standards 2. Notes on the Economic E7a3.uation

MAPS

1. Nigeria Road Map (IBRD 2578RI) 3. Federal.Republi. Roaf Ngria (New. S e u s)I2 3. Federal. Rep-ublic of Nigeria (New State Boundaries) (IBRD 2543R) WTMTfVD TA

sr'PnTsA n T OTFAY. A TyI¶rt4Tw ¶7 rTTTAnrT ?m AMTITAT fDr.OTVOM tr.rZr.a± )1.LJ 1J it flJ.LLM1Y .L LLrLruJ..UL.L.l .a'.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. For many years the Bank has been closely assuciatU Wt. the dIv- elopment cf Nigeria's transport sector. From 1958 to 1965 four loans and one crecditt totaling US$88.5 minion were made; more than half of this amount has been for the financing of highway projects in various parts of the country while the remainder has gone to railways and ports. ii. Since 1966, major political disturbances have swept the countiry, leading to the declaration of secession by the former Eastern Region, nmcl, in July 1967, to the outbreak of the current civil war. iii. The civi.l war has greatly affected the country's transport sE)ctor. While, apext from a short period, military actions have been confined to small are-as in the East, the transport sector throughout the Federation has felt the repercussions. Port Harcourt, the eastern line of the Nigeri.an Railway Corporatioi4 and navigation on the Niger and Benue rivers have been closed, and severe damage inflicted on roads and bridges. An export and import traffic, especially the transport-intensive produce evacuation from the north, has had to be channeled through the western rail and road system, which has been barely adequate to cope with the sudden increase in demanmd. Lack of highway maintenance and heavy rains brought the traffic on the Lagos-Kano road close to a halt late in 1968. The civil war has had Jiitlt effect on the exeeution of thA nurrAnt BAnk Group financed hiehway projiects which are outside the war zone, but it has delayed the preparation of some future proieets. iv. The CnnU=VnMAn-t is prneently preparing a ORnprnl rehabilitation and development program. As part of this program, the proposed project aims at restori ng +.ha nrAnn +.iT nf +Twn nf ATi. ag ; 1-.c mert+. imnortant trunik roads and preparing the ground for future development projects in the highway sec-tor. The pronor. wToueld con-sist of;

(a) rehabilitatvion. of he Lagos-ori. secon of +he Lagos-Kano road and of the Lagos-Ewekoro section of -..AL,gsAel-t-b r road ar.d

ofb+e^1ed '.' TegorrAir.eoering*C~~ .L1IJ~~'AA %ofaI,V.L Ca.LO.~L%7 r.ew Lags-AC-d-~Ojr~.ALU'.A Aroa - ar.d

feasibility studies for future highway projects. v. Execution of the project will be the responsibility of the FeBderal VIL.LLLsLry of WLorkls ad,d Hous-ing. Te±sty .prestUy p r vheUd.u Ud 1 'ed eniJ6.L neering for the rehabilitation of the roads and will supervise the execution of tk- rehabilitation works. Consultants have reviewed the engineering and will assist the Ministry in the supervision. Contracts will be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding. vi. The project will cost about US$17.1 million equivalent and is expected to be comnleted by the And of 1971. The foreign exchange component is about US$10.6 million equivalent and would be financed by the proposed loan. Thig amoulnt includes pronvision for contu1tants sarvices in connection with the final design of the project works, which was started in April 1969; it is -roosedthat re+..roactive financi'n bh nernitted in respect of payments made between that date and the date of signature of the proposed loan and disbiursement for +his purpose is expected to be about US$40;000 equivalent. vii. Speedy execution of the project is of vital importance for Nigeria in order to keep e.port tra"ffic moving and to maintain unrestricted exchange of foodstuffs between the various surplus and deficit areas of the cour.try; a soluti-orn of NEligeriats criLsis andu tI-he reoper;Ling of-P Portlu H1arco.irt- would not affect its priority. The project will yield satisfactory rates of return, estimated under the most adverse assumptions at between 9iand 15% for the various road sections. It provides a suitable basis for a Bank loan of US$10.6 million equivalent. A term of i5 years, including a three-year period of grace, would, on country grounds, be appropriate, although on the basis of the economic life of the project works a shorter term would be warranted. NIGERIA

APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY REHABILITATION PROJECT

1. INTRODUCTION

1.01 For more than ten years the Bank has been closely associated with the develcpment of Nigerials transport sector. In 1958, a loan (193-UN]) tote.ling US$28 million was made to help finance a five-year development program oL the Nigerian Railway Corporation and in 1962, a loan (326-ui'rI) of US$13.5; million was made to the Nigerian Ports Authority for the im- Provament and extension of facilities at Apapa Quay in the Port of Lagcs. Highways have, however, received most of the Bank Group's assistance to the transport sector. Two loans and one credit were made in 1965:

(i) Loan 426-UNI, US$17 million -- Apapa Road (ii) Loan 427-UNI, US$14.5 million -- Western Road Project (iii) Credit 73-UNI, US$15.5 million -- Northern Road Project

The Western and Northern Road Projects are almost completed. The construction of the Apapa Road, a four-lane partly elevated structure, has been delayed because the original design prepared by the Government waS found, on review by consultants, to be inadequate. The project had to be redesignedl and will not be completed before 1972; costs will be higher than orig-Lnallv estimated; but unit Drices for the revised work have still to be finally agreed upon.

1.02 The outbreak of the civil war, in July 1967, has not only inflicted heav damage n Niigeria1 s transnort svstem, but has also interrupted tl-,J preparation of future development projects. A UNDP-financed road development survey in th.e MildWInLest 1/, for which the Rank is Executing Agency, had to be postponed and valuable time for completing feasibility studies and carrying out detailed engrinering of high priority road proiects was lost, Studies financed by UNDP on highways in the liorth, although initially delayed by the constitutional changes of 1968, are now nroceedino satisfac- torily.

1.03 A Bank Economic Mission visited Nigeria in November/December 1968 to discuss the im.,pact of the war on th,e econo'"y of Nigeria and, in he pro. cess, identified a highway rehabilitation project for early Bank financin. The was s euer,Jy appraisedaJect by Mssrs. . Bergan (engineer) anc T. Oursin (economist), who visited Nigeria again in February/March 1969.

1/ For simplicity of exposition the terms North, East, Mid-Wiest and West are used to describe the former "Regions"; of Northern, Eastern, M1Id- Wlestevrn and Western Nigeria. - 2 -

1.04 The proposed project consists of:

(i) the rehabilitation of 204 miles ol federal trunkk roads Al and A9; 2/ and (ii) the execution of detailed engineering of a new Lagos- Ibadan road and feasibility studies for future road projects. 1.05 The speedy implementation of the project is of vital importance to Nigeria,. As a result of the loss of the transport routes through thle east to Port Harcourt, all produce evacuated from the north must pass along the Kano-Lagos corridor, and quick rehabilitation of Al and A9 is, therefore, of f-irst priority. The proposed engineering and feasibility studies will prepare the ground for the implementation of future development projects in the transport sector. 1.06 The end of Nigeriats crisis and the reopening of Port Harcourt would not affect the priority of the proposed project; Al would continue to be the most important road in the country.

2/ Federal trunk roads will be referred to as Al, A6, A9 ... in this report. -3 - 2t BACKGROUND

A. General 2,01 Nigeria, most populous of all African States, covers an area of 357,000 square miles, just slightly less than the combined area of France and Spain. It is bounded to the West and North by the Republics of Dahomey and Niger and to the East by the Republics of Chad and Cameroon, Reliab].e demographic data are not available and population estimates vary between 51 and 60 mLllion (143 - 167 per sq. mile). 2.02 S-ince 1966, maior political disturbances involving heavy loss of life have swept the country; a series of military coups and civil disturbances cu-lm-i-nated in the declaration of secession by the former Eastern Region in may 1967 and led to the outbreak of the current civil war in July 1 967 Tn an attemnt to provide a con9titutirnal structure more responsive to the socio-political situation) a new constitution was promulgated in Apr-eil 1QAA_ -replacing +.he fn"mwer 11Pneginn.stl' hy, 12 Federlal States (Mjap 3)e

9-n3 Rrnyn mt, gr%r.T+.h-7njhic-h nroceded at an annual rate of about, in real terms between 1960 and 1966, slowed down in 1967 and probably came to a halt in.19C608 rrhe mai cotiuvn fcost hisz szituation have. hinec important losses of production in the war zone, not only of export commodi-- +-;es s-c a,, -4-1-el, -anpa'm- produc but also^ oflca ooste;e ruption of transport and trade between the East and the rest of the country, 4andA-edecine Orbthp:vt a. pbicuvelmet On the other hand, production outside the war zone continued uninterrupted. Agriculture has

5XijP.Jj.L eu L.1I u WluL-±y kvuuzL±Ut- w.iv 1410u) WJA4L dCLLiivuU d.LJL .LL' .L'JJ..Lv" .AJ ments and continued to be the principal source of exports, while manufactur- ing, after a sh-Uarp decline during the second ha'l oL 1967, has expanded rapidly in :19680 Petroleum operations were interrupted but are returning to pre-war scale in the areas under Federal control; rapid nlcreabu in out- put and export of petroleum products is technically feasible and, so long as the oilfields remain secure, virtually certain to materialize.

B. The Transport Sector 2.O4 Wnile, apart from a short period, miJ.itary actions have been confined to small areas east of the Niger and south of the Benue, the transport sector throughout the Federation has felt the repercussions, Port harcourt has been closed, the eastern line of the Nigerian Railway Corporation blocked, navigation on the rivers Niger and Benue interrupted, and severe damage inflicted on roads and bridges, both in the East and elsewhere. Al1 export and import traffic, especially the evacuation of groundnuts from the North, has to be moved through Western Nigeria, causing considerable congestion on the exdsting facilities. The western railway line is not able to satisfy all the demand for transport services, and during the 1968 rainy season road traffic almost ceased on the southern sections of Al. (a) Ports

2.05 Nligeriats two large seaports, Lagos and Port Harcourt, normUlly serve all parts of the country. Roads and railroads connect both ports wlith their hinterlands, the East and the Northeast being predominantly servedI by Port Harcourt and the other areas by Lagos, Special commodities and particular local areas are served by a number of smaller ports, mostly in the Niger Delta. The terminals for river navigation on the Niger and Benue are Burutu and Warri.

2.06 lThis pattern of port traffic was interrupted by the civil war. Late in 1967, Port Harcourt was placed under Federal Government naval block- ade and ceabsed to operate. Activities in most of the river ports were severely hampered and, at times, brought to a complete standstill. Lago's had to take over,,and still carries: the burden of the bulk of the foreign trade. In addition to military and relief supplfes, it handles all grcound- nut exports and has once again become the main entry point for refined petroleum products for the whole country. This has reversed the supply routes for large parts of Nigeria which, after the opening of the refinery in Port Harcourt in 1966, had been served directly from the refinery by rail and road.

(b) River Navigation

2.07 River navigation on the Niger and Benue, which carried about 32;0u^0 tons in 1961/62; has been completely intnrrunted. The future of this activity will mainly depend on improved water regulation between Oriitsha nnd Tnkorn.. e+-.TAn T.nknin and JTeHb- it isc qntininta-ri that a minimum depth of 5 feet 6 inches will be maintained in the Niger as a result of rega- la+tion o^f the river b ther+ aiin;i Dam w.Thic,Wh Twas nompnlet+nr in I : +.Q 1 96R _ The construction of the dam and the power scheme was financed with two Bank 1or. fIUJ.TTT ^.d 5L72--UJNI) 4o-4l-ng TTQ(tQA mi"ion equi.L.

2.08 Due to changes in the p4atterns of produce b a imrv,.+ and export tradle, river fleets are no longer considered an attractive investment.+ fl-henn re-. -1*neam n _*- .n -nn' - *inh e n¶Tnn cI.W..U. *A1% X WWC, W ULXU WLW.JV1 .i^.VJ6. GUWSL. LJJ U,JkV s'.A1 . J -. v*W normal con(itions to invest in modernization. Any attempt to revitalize irL"aL4,% na-rig.CV.%atio., -w;hcoud be a- ,micLaJor factor ir,LA& ln produceLr fror.W tLVA North, has, therefore, to be accompanied by a new approach to the operaltion of -P L -'...e r.L Vti f l

(c j iflailways

2.09' 'Chu~Ni±gerian Railway uorporation kiRtuC nab siuitritu severely *'rom the crisis. About 6,000 trained employees left the service of the Corpor- ation and returned to tne East; the eastern line was closed compiete'ly and physically damaged in many places; a considerable number of locomotivesc and freight cars were lost. All indicators point to a considerable reduction in efficiency of operation and equipment maintenance. 2.10 In an effort to concentrate all resources on produce evacuation from the North, the NRC has seriously neglected other traffic. Whereas import and export traffic remained steady, the volume of internal traffic handled by the railway dropped by almost two-thirds during the last twc years. The railway's inability to handle all the traffic on offer has not only seriously affected its financial situation, but has also result- ed in a heavy strain on the capacity of the principal north-south road of the country.

(d) Air Transport

2.11 Damage to airports has been limited. The eastern airports were co-a tions during the second half of 1968. Only Enugu was still closed to commercial. traffic at the end of the year.

2.12 Niger=ia Airways, ahea-,y in a difficult fnancial position before the civil war, suffered losses in freight and passenger traffic, especially doeui "I. £ assenger-'f--lor,Le-Iters on dom,,estic fCLLigh±It-s uLopJJkJeU%pJVV. Wj Lb./0O in 1967. Since late 1968, however, a satisfactory level of service has beenjIJrUV eUdUbe wee 4 ZJgos U riiajur aULJrIsIaLOUra aud econcu ceuutueur of the country.

(e) Roads and Road Transport

2.13 Roads and road transport in Nigeria have developed rapidly since the early l95O0s. This is illustrated by the volume of trucking to and from the port of Lagos, which grew from 0.2 million tons in 1955 to 1.4 million tons in 1967/68, increasing its share from 16g to about 60% of all movements to and from the port.

2.14 War damage to roads goes beyond destruction inflicted by direct military action. We can roughly distinguish:

(i) Damage in the war areas of the East. The losses are expected to be considerable but have not yet been as- sessed;

(ii) Destruction of, or damage to, ten bridges on roads A6 and A9 which connect Lagos and lbadan via Benin across the River Niger with the East. The most significant damage is to the 0.9 mile long bridge over the River Niger at Onitsha, where two spans have been destroyed; and

(iii) A rapid deterioration of Al from Lagos via Ibadan to Jebba. Although outside the war-affected area, this road suffered from the coincidence of an unprecedented high volume of heavy traffic and general lack of maintenance. Tong sections have revAertedi to li+t+tl more than a track. - 6 -

2.15 Little information is available on the development and performance of the road transport industry over the last two years. There is, however. ample evidence that the industrv has considerablv increased its share in the total transport volume of the country, largely because of the reduction in raihmy operations- Tn 1967 shipmAnts of yroimdnuts bv road from the North to Lagos increased by 30% over 1966; and large quantities of gnerai argonnnA pe1.roleimn prMuc+-s shifferte thet roads.

2.16 No data on +hn devlopment of the trucking fleet are avlable However, there has been a marked increase in imports of commercial vehicles an.d a sharp reduction in +>. i.orts~+ of au+gor.oild the latter reu+n from an import ban imposed during 1968.

NU1MER OF MOTOR VEHICLES IMPORTED *

Automobiles Commorcial k(iicl. taxiS ) Vehilee Tota-l

J-9UL4 i4h800 7,600 22,400 1965 17,800 6,500 24,300 1966 17,100 4h800 2i,900 1967 13,400 6,300 19,700 1968 4,370 8,200 12,570

* Excluding Motorcycles

Source: Federal Office of Statistics, Lagos

2.17 The increasing share of road transport in the total transport volume has been greatly influenced by the inability of the railways to haul at the pre-hostilities volumes. Under these circumstances, price and cost considerations and questions of road-rail competition have become of secondary importance. There is no doubt, however, that when political and ecO- nomic conditions return to normal the railway will be confronted with increased competition from the trucking industry, and the problems of transport coordination will then become an important issue.

2.18 Due to the civil war and the formation of the twelve new States, collection of statistics in the highway sector is not systematic, particu- larly in respect of traffic counts and vehicle registration. The Govern- ment has given assurances that it will restore svstematic collection of data as quickly as practicable in order that adequate highwiay planning can be resumed. - 7 -

3. THE HIGHWAY SYSTEM

A. The Highway Network

3.01 Roads in Nigeria are classified into three groups which indicate the financial responsibil;+ty for .i c nr +.v'tw-+3A and mnintenanna Feder- al roads (Trunk "A"), State roads (Trunk "IB"?) and Local Authority roads (Provincial,t'D--,4-4 -1 District,n -4--4 4f etc.),. M ,.. -;- i .- 4r c, ~ s~ ' + c not related to economic importance, traffic density or design standards. The tot-al nletuork is est ,MatBvd a-t- 50,000V rules.

3.02 ThAie Federal roaUds arejU IbhI LLCs.;ecting ral a State capiY tals, the ports with their hinterlands and providing access to ne-ghboring countries. The State "B'; roads, originally designed to ser-ve ma-inly the needs of the former Regions, connect the most important trading centers and provincial capitals with the state capitals. Trunk roads "A" and 'B" rep- resent the primary network of Nigeria and total about 14,500 miles (Table 1 and below;;. They are supplemented by some 35,000 miles of local authority roads for ing the secondary and tertiary systems.

PRIMARY ROAD NETWORK 1967 (Miles)

Paved Unpaved Total

Federal (Trunk "All) Roads 3,295 2,325 5,620 State (Trunk ;;B") Roads 4,355 4,560 8,915

Total 7,650 6,885 14,535

B. Federal Highway Administration

3.03 The Works Division of the Federal Ministry of Works and Housing (IM0W), which has its headquarters in Lagos, is responsible for the con'struction and rnaintenance of Federal roads, buildings, airports and Lagos water- works. All senior positions in the Division are staffed with Nigerian officers. Mostly trained abroad, they are competent but insufficient in number. Of the 200 professional and technical positions,64 are vacant.

3.04 The Ministry has no permanent offices outside Lagos. Resident engineers are assigned from headquarters to supervise major construction works.

C. Highway Maintenance

3.05 The Works Division carries out maintenance for Federal roads in the Lagos State directly. All other Federal Roads are maintained by -the -8-

State Ministries of Works on an agency basis, continuing the agree entE; in force betwieen the Federation and the Regions prior to the creation of the 12 states. The State organizaticns execute maintenance with funds provided through the Federal M%J budget.

3.o6 During 1965 to 1968 the following amounts were allocated for the mtintenance of tA- roads and bridges:

Total Allocations N Year NT per Mile

1965/66 1,890,000 340 1966/67 2,050,000 370 1967/68-* 2,010,000 390

* Excluding East Central State

The annual budgetary allocations for each State are calculated according to mnleage and type of road and include periodic maintenance. For 1968/D9 they were based on average unit rates of NE 425 per mile for paved, and TEF 300 per mile for gravel roads However, only part of the allocations are transferred to the State, depending on the availability of liquid funds and the o-vrerall positio-n of the Federal buiiget; about 65-80'7 of the above maintenance allocations were actually spent in recent years.

3.07 The figures are difficult to evaluate because they are applied more or less uniformly to each State regardless of its equinment fleet, tze staffing of its Highway Department, etc. However, the ability of the States to perform their maintenance function.s varies considerably Whereas the creation of the new States has caused little change in the West and NIid- west, it has greatly affected the North. Six States have been formed out of the former Northera Regio4 and although care was taken to share the total assets and liabilities of the former Region equitably among them, the transfer of highway equipment, shop facilities and qualified personnel did not always meet the individual highlway needs of the Sitates. The States are still in a period of transition; they have great difficulty in raising funds for theiz own ;;B;; roads, and the unsatisfactory m-aintenance performance on the "A" roads during the recent past is partly explained by these extraordi- nary circumstances.

D. Reoreanization of the HighwJay System and Reclassification of Trunk Roads 3.08 The need to review the arrangements for highway organization and maintenance was already realized before the civil war, and the Bank, therefore, initiated a study of Nigeria's trunk road system, which has beer! financed as part of Loan 426-UNI. The study was carried out by cons-ult- ants, KAtIPSAX (Denmark), and covers the establishment of economic and teclhnical criteria for reclassification and reorganization of the truaiK road system, including Federal and State roads. - 9 -

3s09 The consultants submitted their report entitled "mTrunlk Road Stud4y-. early in 1568. The principal recommendations were:

(i) A.functional system of road classification should be established, based upon traffic generating characteristics of the centers linked by the roads. The road system should be divided into primary and secondary roads according to such criteria;

(ii)- Both the primary and the secondary roads should be the responsibility of the Federal Government;

(iii) --The highway administration should consist of an autonomous Federal Highway Organization and 12 State Highway Depart- ments. Maintenance of the primary and secondary road system chould continue to be carried o-at by the State Highway ]'epartments on an agency basis; and,

(iv) The network of primary and secondary roads should consist of 13.700 miles as compared with the existing systems of 5,620 miles of Federal (WA?I) and 8,915 miles of State ("B") roads. IThe remaining roads would continue to be the responsibility of state or local authorities.

3,10 I'he report is used as a working document within the MOW but there has been nc…official reaction from the Federal Government, and such deci.siorns as the transfer of the 11BT roads to the Federal Government might be difficul'; ni the present circumstances. However, during negotiations the Government, confirmed its intention to reclassify the trunk highway system as soon as practicable in consulltation with the Bank.

3.11 ]:t will t.ake some tim.e to reestablish nroper an.l pqVJP-KP highway maintenance in Nigeria. However, this should be a nrimary aim cf the Government, and assurances were obtained during negotiations that it will ta]_ all possible steps to this end. A,~~~~~~~~~~~ rDuescrrTplF h.Ol Thne project consists of: /1 (a) Detabiled nione of a a d d(:

(c F)rehabiltyiStauies: o 20W - and A9 (Lagos-Ewekoro); and {,, _ _ _n ,_ ~ _ __ _e14-4- 4-u 7k- + -tr e%f k-1-1 consltin11g Se-ictesU t- 0 CssLoU '.s= ;1"IVLQj -- Works in preparing and supervising (i) above.

(b) Detailed Engineering of a New Lagos-Ibdan Road (70 m]w

(i) a feasibility study, including preliminary engineering, of an improved road connection betweern UadUn and Daura including the crossing of the Niger River; and (ii) a preliminary study of the improvement of Benue River crossings at Numan and Yola.

(a) Rehabilitation of Roads

(i) Al: Lagos-niorin (175 miles) and A9: Lagos-Ewekoro (29 miles)

4.02 The Lagos-Tnorin road (Al) and the Lagos-Ewekoro section of the Lagos-Abeokuta-Ibadan road (A9) have been severely damaged during the current crisis due to the high traffic density and heavy loadings which were never envisaged when the roads were built. The pavement has dis- appeared aver long stretches, and, in many places, it is beyond repair. 4.03 To rehabilitate these roads, it is intended to rebuild the carriageway to 24 ft. with shoulders of 5 fto Where necessary, the grade will be raised, drainage improved, and the carriageway reshaped and widened; new base and pavement will be provided throughout. The roads will be given a double surface treatment, except the Lagos-Ode Remo section of Al which, because of heavy traffic (M,500 vehicles per day). will have asphalt concrete pavement. The existing grades and curves will only be changed where absolutely necessa;V for consistent traffic flow.

/1 The aqprnpriate design standards are summarized in Annex lo - - -.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ S _ I.-3 1 T/ 4-.,1.-/TT IC 'I 4e°4 The Government has contracted with Stirling I sbali. (It -iy' /U for immediate rehabilitation of the Ilorin-Jebba section of Al. The standards to which this section is to be rebuilt are in line with u1tose for the Lagos-Ilorin section. The Government has agreed that the works on this section (financed entirely by the Government) wili be completed not later -than those on the Lagos--Ilorin section and that uniform standards will be applied. North of the Niger, from Jebba to Kaduna, Zaria and. Kano, the Al is in acceptable condition.

(ii) Engineering-Supervision

4.0o5 Engineering for the Lagos-Inorin and the Lagos-Ewekoro roads has been undertaken by the Ministry of Works and has been reviewed by the consultants, Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners (IJ.Ko) The rehab:ili- tation works will be supervised by the Ministry's own staff, with the assistance of the same consultants. The consultants will assign an engineer to the resident supervisory staff for each of the four proposed construction contracts (para. 4.15).

(b) Detailed Engineering of New Lagos-Ibadan Road (70 miles)

k.06 'Under Loan h26-UNI, consultants Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and. Partners (U.K.) carried out a feasibility study of a new road connection between Lagos and Ibadan. and recommended the construction of a two-lane road along a new alignment between the existing Al and A9, Provision was also made In the same loan for the detailed engineering of about 20 miles of this new road. In accordance with the recommendation that the whole length to Ibadan shouild be engineered at this time, it is proposed to delete the partial detailed engineering from the 426-UNI project and make prouis.in for the fiill engineering work under the pro^osed loan.

J.07 Construction oosts for this scheme are estimated at TL 5.7 million (or US$230,000 per mile). According to the consultants, twqo additional lanes~*w-l be, requiredin 1078 T.+,a^eenLagon (Tke.2i) and Araromi (29 miles). and in 1981 between Odo Ona and Ibadan (5.4 miles). The civil war has delayed the, schedule for this pro-n'+. and the first two lanes of the new road will not be in use before 1975. Two additional lanes will, therefore, be req--red for the southern section of the road within three years and total engineering costs will be lower if the design of the full four lanes is out-4. o s e 1,,- o +a-+n1rI eneiring will; therefore, be for a four-lane road, but tender documents will be prepared at 4this t.e.for the contrutio ofory lanes fP"romTLagos toe TbadAnn

(c)/ 1_asibil.J.y StudLLes

(1)i ila ster _PIlan for Ib'Lada=n-Yad%-ur.-a-Daura"~-~ Road

4LoU Ihe proposed B1-Lt ±L.J.UatUiLon o'i-±AwLl pro.'v-iduvte the necessa.y breathing space to plan for permanent solutions. Whereas a feasibility study has already been carried o-ut for the Lagos-Ibadan section (para0O 06l), - 12 -

no studies have been made for the remaining parts of the road. The preparation of a master plan for the future development of the road between Ibadan and Kaduna and northwards to the Niger border at Daura is therefore included in the proposed project. Consultants will determine the best alignment for an improved or a new road, including a connection through or around Ibadan, and will make recommendations on the phasing of engineering and construction.

4.09 A major issue for study will be the crossing of the Niger River, which at present is via a combined rail and road bridge of low service level and capacity at Jebba.

(ii) River Crossing at Niuman and Yola

4h10 The Government has proposed that studies be carried out to identify possible improvements to the Benue River crossings at Numan and Yola. in the northeast of the country. Present ferries give unsatisfactory service with frequent delays. The prooosed investigations will be limited to identifving the nature and magnitude of these problems, to forecasting development of traffic on roads A), (Yola-Maiduguri) and A17 (Yola-Numan-Gombe), and to broadly assessing possible improvements to the crossings.

B. Cost Estimates

40 11 The estimates for the rehabilitation of Al and A9 are based on the design and ngineering data prepared by the Ministry of Works. The . s - mates have 'been reviewed by consultants Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners and are considered satisfactory.

4el2 Cost estimates for consulting services for revievu f h eer-- ing and for supervising construction are based on the consultant's proposal 0 71.>.-ftorr.er w-orlk was started-in April19, an-A prviio made in the proposed loan for financing payments therefor prior to loan signature; the amontIL.Ju involved ALL ube aboUUt USP$40,UU00 eqW-LVulentu. &lie es foUI.U%V.L.JI detailed engineering of the new Lagos-Ibadan road are based on a proposaL bJy thle cons,U'ti.ng fi-.LII ULhat. UdrUtookVV Wthe PIrVL_LIirI-naV tngineering;U.LA6 The cost of the feasibility studies is based on probable staffing and normal man-month, rila Ue S

4el1.3 Based on current nanK construction and eng-ineerinig proJecub iLn Nigeria, the foreign exchange component of the construction works is estimated at 660' ana tnat of consulting services at 70;%. The foreign exchange cost of the project, amounting to Tl3$10.6 million equivalent, would be lminanced from the proposed loan.

4,14 in view of the difficulties in assessing accurate quantities for the rehabilitation works in the project, an allowance of 20, has been made for unforeseen quantity increases. Moreover, a 5% allowance for increases in foreign and local prices has been provided for all items of the project. A summary of cost estimates is shown on the following page. - 13 -

C. Proip'+t Ryecution

_1_19 The 'pderal Ninistry of' Works, with the help of connsultants, will be responsible for the execution of the project. To speed up the rehabiLi.- tation of t+he Lagos=I lori -oad, th - Mi;s+- has nl eassr adver+ sed for 1 ~ozi - th 1, _ _ J -&J. _'.J A - "* bids, and h.as advised embassies and legations of Bank member countries in NTigeria, B:idders will not be prequali"ied but will be qualified when the bids are received. The roads will be divided into four sections and contractors may bid for one or more sections. The construction works ar.e expected to be completed towards the middle of 1971,before the beginning of the rain;r season, The Government exects that contracts can be awarded in November 1969, so that actual construction works could start in January

SUMvMARY OF ESTlMATED COST

Total Nb (million) US$ ui lion) Elendi- Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total tuLre 1. Rehabilitation of Roads

(a) Rehabilitation of 1.62 2.43 4.05 4.50 6.80 11,30 66 204 miles of roads Al and A9

(b) Consulting ser- 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.08 0.22 0.30 vices for engineering and supervision of cornstruction

Subtotal 1 1.65 2.50 4.15 4.58 7.02 11.60 68 2. Detailed Engineering

Lagos-Tbadan (70 miles) 0.10 0.25 0.35 0.30 0.70 1.00 6

3. Feasibility Studies 0,15 0035 0.50 0.42 0.98.. 1.40 8 Subtotal 1 - 3 1,90 3.10 0 5.30 'ff TO 70 4. Contingencies aT Quantity contingency of 20% on rehabilitation and reconstruction costs (l,a) 0.30 05O 0Q80 0 90 1-.h0 2.30 13

(b) Price contingencv of 5% on all items 0.10 0.20 0,30 0.30 0.50 0.80 5 Subtotal 4 0(.40 0.70 1.10 1.20 -1.9031 *-W

PgArN TOTALT. 1 - 1 2.30 3580 6.10 6.50 10.60 17.1070- ) 14 -

4.16 The Ministry of W4orks will supervise the rehabilitation works on Al and A9. This is acceptable since supervision will be checked and con- trolled by experienced consultants. Terms have been negotiated with Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners, and the draft contract was reviewed and agreed during negotiations.

4.17 A contract for the detailed engineering of a new Lagos-Ibadan road will be negotiated with Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners, who carried out the feasibility study. This arrangement is acceptable, and has been confirmed during negotiations.

4.18 The feasibility study for the establishment of a master plan for the road development between Ibadan and Daura, and the study of the river' crossings at Numan and Yola will be carried out by consulting firms selected in accordance with procedures acceptable to the Bank. These procedures were discussed during negotiations. The studies will take 18 to 24 months.

D. Local Finance and Disbursement

)1l9 Local funds needed for the Droiect will be made available by the Government. This has been confirmed during loan negotiations.

4.20 Disbursements from the loan account would cover the actual foreign exchange c03ts Onf rnsultants' services and 60% of expenditures on rehabilitation and reconstruction works. Provided that the loan becomes effective before theind of 1969, loan disburrsements are estimated as follows:

1969 1970 1971 1972 Total

US$ eq-valen.t (Tmilion) 0,9 6.0 4.0 0.14 1006 - 15 - 5.ECONOMIC EVALUATION

A, General

5r01 Road transport is of ever increasing importance in Nigeria. lnporta have to be distributed in relatively small loadl to a large and widely dis- persed population. Most of the exported goods have to be moved from thousajv3; of small farms to official buiying stations or to processing mills from where they travel in growing -proportion by road to the port of Lagos.

TONNJAGES MOvED BY ROAD TO AND FROM THE. PORT OF LAGOS

% of Total Rail and Road '000 tons Movemrnt to and from the Port mm._T. Lxports

955/83 v 102 24 13 1961/62 369 3h4 53 43 1967,68 636 771 68 56

Nigeria-s agricultural exports, mainly ground-uts, cocoa, palm produce and cotton, face conpetition from other producing countries as well as the constant threat of substitution, and, low transport costs are, therefore, of vvital- -inportance.

5.02 Trunk roads Al..,and A9 are of strategic importance in this transport pattern*.-..Apart -from the imports consu-med directly in Lagos, all road tran- port to and.from-the pott travels over these roads. All road connections between the capital of Nigeria and the other centers of the country finall.' converge in. these routes.

B.. Rehabilitation of Trunk Road Al Lagos-Tlorin

5.03 Trunk road Al (Map 1); linking.Lagos with lbadan, Ilorin, and across- the 1iger with Kaduna and Kano, is the most important road in Nigeria, In addition-to its importance for the produce evacuation from the north, tl. road.links the biggest urban centers, namely, Lagos, Ibadan, Oyo, Ogbomosho and nori in -the southr with -KaduLna, Zaria and Kano in the north, The metro- politan -areas of Lagos -and Ibadlan, with about one million inhabitants each, are,less than.100 miles apart ard generate considerable movements of passen- -gers and goods, Lagos depends almost.-entirely on roads for moving the large Mn--ntities of food.it needs,

5.014 In 196)..-the lTst year for which comrehensive figures are available,,.road traffic between Lagos and Ilorin was as follows: - 16 -

Section Miles ADT

Lagos.-Shagamu 42 3,700 Shaganu-Ibadan 45 2,300 Ibadan-Oyo 33 i,80u Oyo-Ilorin 66 1,350

According -to consultants, Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners, the traffic on the road is expected to increase at a minimum of 5g per year~, leading to daily traffic densities of about 3,000 vehicles close to Ilorin and about '7,000 vehicles between Lagos and Ode Remo in 1975.

5.05 Most parts of the road as far north as Jebba are in bad condition, causing high transport costs. During the heavy 1968 rainy season the s3c_ tion north of Ibadan became impassable at times, and it is expected t1hat -the road will 'be closed frequently during the 1969 rains. IJp to 1966/67, a truck could make about four return trips between Lagos and Kano each month; now only two or three are possible. 5.06 Present difficulties do not stem only from lack of maintenance or heavy rains. Most sections of the road have low standards of design an,1 alienment and have reached, or will soon reach, their capacity for handLing traffic. Feasibility studies for a new road from Lagos to Ibadan have been completed (para. 4.06). and a master plan for the long term improvement of the Ibadan-Daura section will be developed as part of this project (para. 14e08Y. Immediate relief is, however, essential, and the proposed rehabilitation works are, therefore, designed to provide rapid improvement of traffioi conditi ons and to give breathing space for planning and implementing long term solutions.

5.07 The rehabilitation of the Lagos-Ilorin road would generate economic benefits, principally by reducing vehicle operating costs. Given the high traffic densities, the proposed project will generate significant benefits, alt'hough. the road a ignment will not be improvede The economic life of the rehabilitation works will be determined by the optimum timing for the implementation nf t+h long term soluitions mentioned in para. 5.06 above. Under present conditions, these dates are difficult to estimate, and the rate of return calcunation i8s therefore, co-nnuted- under various assumptions of economic life of the project, ranging from 4 to 10 years for the individual sections of the road. The resilts are siim'arized below; details of the cost and benefit calculations are given in Annex 2. Section Range of Rate of Return (%)

Lagos-Ode Remo 15 - 42 O de Remo-Ir"badan 10 - 30 Ibadan-Ilorin 9 - 27 -- 17 -

C. Rehabilitation of Trunk Road A9 Lagos-Ewekoro

5.08 Trunk Road A9 constitutes the main route from Lagos (Ikeja) to Agege and Abeokuta (about 225,000 inhabitants), and to the large cement works at Ewekoro (Map 1). It is also an alternative route to Ibadan and provides access to the coastal road connecting Nigeria, via Dahomey and Togo, with Ghana. The pavement of the Lagos (Ikeja)-Ewekoro section has deteriorated rapidly,causing severe speed restrictions and high vehicle operating costs.

5.09 In 1967, the average traffic was well above 2,000 vpd close to Ikeja and about 1,400 at Ewekoro. Although the through traffic to Abeokuta and lbadan will be diverted as soon as a new road is provided between Lagos and Tbadan, average traffic is estimated to be at a minimum of 2,000 vpd again by 1980. Assuming an economic life of the proposed rehabilitation works of from eight to ten years, the economic return is expected to range from 12 to 25% (detailA are given in Annex 2).

D. Detailed Engineering of a New Lagos-Ihadan Road

5.10 Consultants, Scott, 1ilson, KirL-atrick and Partners (U.K.), studiccd the feasibility of improving either or both of the existing roads between Lagos and Ibadan (Al and A9) or of constructing a new road (Iap 2). The existing roads have poor alignments and low traffic capacities, and the consulS"tOnt forecast that in normal circumstances most of Al wou-Id be over- loaded befcre 1971. Several schemes for improving both roads were considered, but those f'or A9 gave low rates of ret-n., larelr because of the extra distance for through traffic between Lagos and Ibadan. The choice is, therefore, between ipVroving the existing Al 4'ron. IkeJa (on the ^11+cskirts of' a to Ibadan and constructing a new road to modern design standards on a new a'La±g.rixi1 gnm,ent, 5.11 Looking well into the future, a road of motorway standards wil1 be required and, whereas the existing Al could at best be developed to a dual "a -purposel: road, a new two-lane road b-uilt to m1otorway standards of alig.- ment could be developed later to a full motorway with limited access. The! consultante recoiTn-end this solution, -which would yield an economc rate Of return of 26%. If traffic grows as expected by the consultants, sectiorns of the new road would need dualling between 1978 and 1981e

5.12 Tne feasibility study was completed before the o-utbreak of the; hostilities, and the development of traffic volumes since that time is not; kmown. Assurances were obtained from the Government during negotiations that it will observe and record the traffic developments in order to delter- mine the optimum timing for this investment (para. 2.18). - 18 -

6. RECOTIAENDATIOWS

6.01 During loan negotiations agreement was reached with the Govermnent on the following principal points:

(i) the restoration of an adequate system of road transport data collection (para. 2.18), with special emphasis on traffic counts on the Lagos-Ibadan road (para 54L');

(ii) a decision, as soon as practicable, in consultation with the Bank on the future organi%ation and classification of Nigeria's trunk road system (para. 3.10); and

(iii) the satisfactory maintenance of the Federal road network (para. 'A 11

6.02 The proposed pro,Ject constitutes a sulitable basis for a Bank loan of US$10.6 million. A term of 15 years, including a three-year period of grace, would, on co-mtry grounds, be appropriate, although on thle basis of the economic life of the project works a shorter term would be warranted,

Septem,ber L, 1969 NIGERIA

HIGHIAY REHABILITATICN PROJECT

Network of Trunk '!A and ;B;: Roads by State and Surface (Mi1es)

TRUNK RCADS 'A"II TRUNK RCA DS " 2/ Grand State Paved Unpaved Total Paved Unpaved Total Total

North West 419 297 716 ( 11 inn~~~~~~~in . -North1- Cenrat,l 39Y7 12 51 North East 55h4 878 l,h3 1,117 3,573 4,690 8,751 B3enue - Plateau 4519.)365 ?-I k Kano 282 - 282 ( .Kwara 126 467 593 (

West 590 40 630 1,379 16 1,395 2,025

Mid-West 175 - 175 774 153 927 1,10-

East Central 435 - 435 ( South East 91 156 247 (1,014 818 1,832 2,521 Rivers 14 - 14 ( 12> Lagos 58 - 58 71 - 71

TOTAL 3,295 2,325 5,620 4,35 4,560 8,915 14,535

V/ Source: Federal Ministry of Works, Lagos - March 1968 2/ Source: Trunk Road Study, Kampsax - December 1967

June 1969 TABL , 2

NIGERIA

HIGHWAY REIABILITATICN PROJECT

T +- r( rc o t. Data

(pence/vehicle mile, net of taxes)

CAR TRUCKS

3 Ton 5 Ton 10 Ton 24 Ton

1. Average Operating Costs 5.2 8.2 >43 22.3 38.5 on 12 ft-. bitl e.emnsur- faced rxoad

2. Savings in Operating Costs 0.9 1.5 2.7 4.0 7.2 res'ti.n fromn con Strnal tion ol' 24 ft. paved road, wiLth impro-ved construction standards and alignment

Source: Ovre Arup and Partners/Economist Intelligeonce Unit: -Western Nigeria Road Development Survey, l S67

June 1969 NIGERIA

HIGHWAY REILABILITATIOW PROJECT

Desi-n Standards

1.tMUREF2 .I hMA MN I Lagos-Ilorin (Al) and Lagos-Ewekoro (A9)

(a) Geometric Design: No significant changes except in exce"tior' cases.

(b) Width of Surfacing: 2 ft. W4with 2 f shode

cc) Base: Crushed stone or natiural granular material.

(d) 'Surfacing: Bituminous macadam or multiple surface dressing.

2.* DETAILD EN!GINEERING: Lagos-ITadan (New Road)

(a) Design Speed: 70 mph

(b) Mdaximum Gradient: 3%

(c) Overall Design: Dual 24 ft. carriageways 1with 10 ft 0 shoulders and variable median width., The whole scheme to be designed sco that full control of access can ultimately be applied.

(d) Contract documents for Single 24 ft. carriageway early phases of Project: (i) Ikeja to Ode-Remo and in addition the link with ohagamu (ii) Odo-Ona to Ibadan and in addition the link with the Ijebu-Ode Road (iii) Ode-Remo to Odo-Ona

(e) Drawings and Bill of Second 24 ft. carriageway Quantities for later (i) Ikeja to Araromi phases of Project: (ii) Odo-Ona to Ibadan (iii) Araromi to Odo-Ona

September :L969 .;iaPage g e.

NIGERIA

HIGHWAY REHABILIATION PROJECT

Notes on the Economic Evaluation

A. RehabiLitation of Roads

1. The following table summarizes traffic data and rehabilitation costs for each section of the proJect. Estimated Cost* Section Miles ADT 1967 NI 1,000

(a) Lagos-Ode Remo 42 4,000 1,000 (b?) OId Rpmo.-Thadan 37 2,500 750 (c) lbadan-:Lorin 96 1,300 1,850 (d) Lagos-Ewekoro 29 1,800 550

* Including ph-yscal contingencies and engineering services, excluding taxes. 2. Road maintenance costs are assumed unaffected by the project because neither the basic characteristics of the roads nor the traffic densities will be affected by the rehabilitation works.

3. Traffic is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5% on the Lagos- Ode Remo section and 6' on the other sections of the project. Based on 0-43 surveys the traffic on the Lagos-Ewekoro road is expected to decrease by about 40% after apening of a new Lagos-lbadan road.

4. Tne oconornic life of the project is determined by the technical life of the rehabilitation works and, for the Lagos-Ode Remo and Ode Remo- rbadan sections, by the opeUnxig uate of a .ewL agos-badan road. .To sets of hypotheses have been used:

Economic Life kyears

Section Hyohesis "Short" H .

(a) Lagos-Ode Remo 4 6 (b) Ode REmo-Ibadan 5 6 (c) Ibadan-nlorin 6 10 (d) Lagos-Ewekoro 8 10 5. Basic data onvehicle operating costs are given in Table 20 ire unit savingts in operating costs to be generated by the rehabilitation works tile are expectod to be lower than the figures shown in this table because alignment of the existing roads will not be changed, and the paved carriageway will be widened only on the Ibadan-Ilorin section. Based on two hypo- in theses for savings in aDerating costs and taking into account differences ulit traffic ccqmositicn on the various sections of the roads, the following savings were used for the rate of return calculation:

Savings in Vehicle Operating Costs (pence per mile, net of taxes)

Hypothesis "Low" iypothesis "High"

South of Ibadan: (sections a, b; d? 1.0 14

'North of Ibadan: (section c) 1^5 2.0

6. The results of the economic analisi s. combining the assuM.tions in paras. 4 and 5 above,are presented in the following table:

Economic Rate of Return, in %

Sections T agos Ode Reo- ibadan- Lago.- Ode Remo Ibadan Ilorin Ewekoro

1. Economic Life "short"

(a) Unit Savirngs "low" 15 10 9 12 (b) Urlit Savings "high: 27 25 18 22

2, EconoTic Life "long": 15 (a) linit Savings "low" 24 14 19 25 (b) lJnit Savings "high"l 42 30 27

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