FORECASTING SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION: SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING IN CITIES
Urbanization and resource trends in Kyrgyzstan
Table of Contents
Urbanization ...... 3
Economic growth ...... 4
Material use ...... 6
Solid waste generation ...... 7
Energy consumption...... 8
Water consumption ...... 9
Land use ...... 10
Bishkek
Kyrgyzstan
North and Central Asia subregion
Asia-Pacific region
Throughout this report colours are consistently used to represent city-level data from Bishkek (blue), national-level data from Kyrgyzstan (orange), subregional averages from the ESCAP North and Central Asia subregion1 (grey), and regional averages from the entire ESCAP Asia- Pacific region2 (yellow). Further resources and informaton about the Inception and data collection workshop held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan on 20-21 February 2020 can be found at: https://www.unescap.org/events/forecasting-sustainable-urbanization-inception-and-data- collection-workshop-bishkek. For any questions or additional information, please kindly contact the Forecasting Sustainable Urbanization team at [email protected]. The map on the front cover was created using Grafomap.
1 Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 2 The full list of ESCAP’s 53 Member States can be found here: https://www.unescap.org/about/member-states.
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Urbanization
Population of Bishkek 1.6 1.43 1.4 1.28 1.15 1.2 1.04 0.94 1.0 0.84 0.77 0.80 0.8
Millions 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018). Since 2000 Bishkek has grown by approximately 250,000 people, and the city is projected to add almost 400,000 more people over the next 15 years.
Urban vs Rural Population in Kyrgyzstan 8 7 6.3 7.3 6 5 4.0 4 4.1
Millions 3 2.3 3.2 2 1.4 1 1.0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Bishkek Kyrgyzstan Urban Kyrgyzstan Rural Kyrgyzstan Total Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018).
Almost all of the population growth projected over the next 15 years is expected to occur in Kyrgyzstan’s cities, with Bishkek accounting for half of the total urban growth during that period.
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Economic growth
Kyrgyzstan GDP 25,000 20,024 20,000 16,092 14,844 15,000 12,258 10,162 10,000
5,000
Million USD (2011 PPP dollars) PPP USD(2011 Million 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database.
Bishkek gross regional product (GRP) 250,000 230,007 200,906 200,000 180,880 152,867 158,635 150,000 137,212
100,000
50,000
Million soms (at current prices) current (at soms Million 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic.
Kyrgyzstan is experiencing huge economic growth. National GDP doubled between 2000 and 2016, whilst Bishkek’s GRP increased by 1.7 times in just 5 years.
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Kyrgyzstan GDP and Bishkek GRP per capita 250 220 197 200 181 160 162 147 soms 150 94 82 89 100 65 72 76
Thousand 50
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Bishkek Kyrgyzstan Source: National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic.
GDP per capita 25,000
20,000 19,722
15,000 11,961 10,000 10,897
5,000 5,781 3,362 2,065 0
2011 PPP dollars percapita dollars PPP 2011 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Kyrgyzstan North and Central Asia Asia-Pacific Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database.
The per capita GRP in Bishkek and overall per capita GDP in Kyrgyzstan have shown significant growth during 2013-2018, but Bishkek is growing faster and the gap is widening. Despite this rapid recent growth, GDP per capita in Kyrgyzstan remains significantly lower than subregional and regional averages.
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Material use
Domestic material consumption (DMC) in Kyrgyzstan 60 51 47 50 43 40 36 32 30
Million tons Million 20
10
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database.
DMC per capita 20
15 15.3 10.4 13.2 10 7.1 8.2 5 Tons percapita Tons 6.5
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Kyrgyzstan North and Central Asia Asia-Pacific
Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database.
Domestic material consumption (DMC) reports the apparent consumption of materials in a national economy. DMC increased in Kyrgyzstan from 32 to 51 million tons between 2000 and 2016. Despite this huge increase in material use, DMC per capita in Kyrgyzstan is substantially lower than subregional and regional averages.
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Material intensity (DMC per GDP) 12 10
8 7.8 6 4 2.0 2 1.7
0 Kg per 1 USD (2010) GDP USD(2010) 1 per Kg 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Kyrgyzstan North and Central Asia Asia-Pacific Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database.
Resource intensity measures the resources (e.g. materials, energy, water) needed to generate a unit of economic output. Lower resource intensities are better and a decrease in resource intensity over time means a country has become more resource efficient. However, the intensity of material use is four times higher in Kyrgyzstan than subregional and regional averages. This provides a huge opportunity for Kyrgyzstan to leverage future growth through more efficient use of the materials that are already available and used. Solid waste generation Municipal solid waste generated in Kyrgyzstan 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0
Million tons per year tons Million 0.5 0.0 2016 2030 2050 Source: World Bank, What a Waste 2.0 (2018).
The total volume of solid waste generated in Kyrgyzstan’s cities is forecasted to more than double by 2050, from 1.1 million tons per year in 2016 to 2.5 million tons per year by mid- century. Preventing such a rapid increase in waste generation can reduce the waste management burden on municipal budgets, and identifying opportunities to divert waste materials from landfill to productive uses can drive economic growth and opportunities.
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Energy consumption
Energy consumption in Kyrgyzstan 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0
0.5 Million tons of equivalent oil tons Million 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database.
Energy consumption per capita 3,000 2,500 2,494 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,042 500 583 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Kg of oil equivalent percapita oilequivalent of Kg Kyrgyzstan North and Central Asia Asia-Pacific
Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database.
Total energy consumption3 in Kyrgyzstan doubled between 2000 and 2016, from 1.7 to 3.5 million tons of oil equivalent. Despite this increase, per capita energy consumption remains half the Asia-Pacific average and one fifth the North and Central Asia subregional average.
3 Data for energy consumption is calculated here using Total Final Consumption (TFC), defined as the sum of consumption by the different end-use sectors, excluding the energy consumed during the transformation of energy from primary to secondary.
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Energy intensity (consumption per GDP) 250
200 211 168 174 150 124 126 100 87 50
0 dollars GDP GDP PPP) (2011dollars
Kg of oil equivalent per1,000 oilequivalent of Kg 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Kyrgyzstan North and Central Asia Asia-Pacific
Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database. However, energy intensity is significantly higher than subregional and regional averages. Kyrgyzstan consumes 174 kg of oil equivalent per 1,000 dollars of GDP, compared to averages of 126 in North and Central Asia and 87 in the Asia-Pacific region. It should be noted that in 2000 the subregional average in North and Central Asia was higher than in Kyrgyzstan but reduced from 211 to 126 by 2016 whilst Kyrgyzstan’s energy intensity remained constant. This highlights that substantial reductions in resource intensities are possible. Water consumption Water intensity (consumption per GDP) 2.5 2.01 2.0
1.5
1.0 perUS 1 dollar 3 0.5 m 0.11 0.12 0.0 Source: ESCAP StatisticalKyrgyzstan Online DatabaseNorth. and Central Asia Asia-Pacific Source: ESCAP Statistical Online Database. Data on water withdrawal and consumption in the region is less comprehensive, but as per the latest available data Kyrgyzstan uses 2.01 m3 to realize 1 unit of economic output. Kyrgyzstan’s water intensity exceeds the subregional and regional averages of 0.11 and 0.12 respectively by almost 20 times.
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Land use
Source: Google Earth. Satellite images taken in 2000 and 2020 reveal the substantial increase in Bishkek’s urban land area over that period.
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