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Home , Refugee crisis, Rohingya people

The Rohingya Crisis: Deserves a Win-Win Solidarity Compact

July 2018 Assessing the Impact of the Trade between and the U.S. The Rohingya crisis: Bangladesh deserves a win-win solidarity compact Cindy Huang, Nazanin Ash, Marcus Skinner and Kate Gough Photo by UK Department for International Development

n 25 August 2017, in retaliation for attacks on its local So what comes next? How should Bangladesh and the security forces by the Rohingya Salvation Army international community respond to this new phase of Rohingya O(ARSA), the military undertook a campaign of displacement in Bangladesh, of which Bangladesh is bearing far and terror against the that the UN High more than its fair share? Commissioner for called ‘a textbook example of ’. Nearly 700,000 people have fled to Bangladesh since August 2017 – including more than 500,000 in a single month, the fastest exodus since the Rwandan . A holistic and robust response And while this campaign was most significant in terms of people Bangladesh is providing an immense global public good – displaced, it also capped a long history of disenfranchisement and reinforcing both national and international laws on providing abuse of the Rohingya in Myanmar. Those who fled in the autumn protection to those fleeing and violence. But this of 2017 joined Rohingya displaced by previous waves of violence, should not be Bangladesh’s responsibility alone. Global actors with the total Rohingya refugee population in Bangladesh now can no longer turn a blind eye to the cruelties the Rohingya have reaching nearly 1 million. suffered. The violence of August 2017 must be understood as The government and people of Bangladesh, particularly part of a long-term strategy of systematic economic, social and the local population of Cox’s Bazar, responded with grace and and discrimination against the Rohingya generosity, providing safety, shelter and support to a traumatised enacted by the government of Myanmar. Before 2017, hundreds population fleeing for their lives. Prime Minister of thousands had already fled to Bangladesh, and captured Bangladesh’s welcome at the start of the crisis, saying, , and those who remain endure conditions of extreme ‘If we can feed 160 million people, we can feed 700,000 more.’ , disenfranchisement and vulnerability. Myanmar’s 1982 Bangladesh has taken this approach as many nations, including law, which effectively denied citizenship rights to the wealthy ones, are stepping back from their obligations to protect Rohingya, has made the Rohingya the world’s largest stateless populations seeking safety from conflict and violence, meeting population. The citizenship law and other discriminatory policies them instead with closed borders, forced returns and detention. have curtailed Rohingyas’ right to study, work, travel, marry, With just 1.34% of the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP), practise their and access services such as health and Bangladesh received more in less than three weeks education. than arrived in from across the Mediterranean in all of The systematic disenfranchisement of the Rohingya in 2016. The government of Bangladesh, with support from its local Myanmar must be addressed, the most recent acts of violence organisations as well as international agencies, rapidly mobilised independently investigated and justice served. Justice for the shelter, food, water, health and services. Rohingya people includes the right to return voluntarily in safety Ten months after the onset of the crisis, Bangladesh is home and dignity to their homeland. The governments of Bangladesh to the largest refugee settlement in the world. Service delivery and Myanmar signed a Memorandum of Understanding in systems and infrastructure are showing signs of strain. January 2018, defining terms for and a target of Bangladesh and local communities are now coming to terms with 300 returns per month. To date, however, the government of the impact of the crisis, including dramatic deforestation to make Myanmar has not taken steps to secure the conditions for safe way for refugee sites and to meet ongoing needs for firewood, returns. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) said in April 2018 that as well as reports of depressed daily wages as a result of the it ‘considers that conditions in Myanmar are not yet conducive increased supply of low-skilled labour. for returns to be safe, dignified, and sustainable’. UNHCR and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) are continuing

30 Policy Insights | July 2018 negotiations with the government of Myanmar to establish a framework for creating conditions conducive for safe, With just 1.34% of the EU’s gross domestic product voluntary and dignified repatriation. The international community, including (GDP), Bangladesh received more refugees in less China and other regional actors with an interest in the conflict’s peaceful than three weeks than arrived in Europe from resolution, have critical roles to play in ensuring these conditions are achieved. across the Mediterranean in all of 2016. The recommendations of the Advisory Commission on provide an important nationally and internationally endorsed framework for reform. humanitarian crisis seizes international years or more, contributing to increases The international community also has attention – to forge a Solidarity Compact in child labour and early marriage. a role to play in ensuring Bangladesh that advances Bangladesh’s progress In , a new $500 million maintains and even accelerates its toward the Sustainable Development package to support a compact between impressive development trajectory, even Goals. the government and the World Bank as it provides safety to one of the most aims to support the generation of 100,000 vulnerable populations on earth. The jobs – including 70,000 for Ethiopians average length of displacement globally Global responsibility-sharing: and 30,000 for refugees. This will in part is now over 10 years and Bangladesh may Cases and early lessons be achieved through investments in not be an exception to this trend. The Lessons from other protracted crises Ethiopia’s industrial parks – consistent Center for Policy Dialogue has determined help show the way. Early planning can with the government’s plans to turn that, under the terms agreed in the help mitigate negative consequences such Ethiopia into a manufacturing hub. bilateral Memorandum of Understanding, as environmental degradation and health While these compacts demonstrate a Bangladesh will host thousands of risks already emerging in Bangladesh. new approach to responsibility-sharing, Rohingya for anywhere between seven New models of international partnership they also offer lessons on how to improve and twelve years at a cost of between recognise the critical leadership role it. In each case, results could be enhanced $4.43 billion and $10.46 billion. These of national governments hosting large through greater emphasis on area- costs cannot and should not be borne by populations of refugees, and structure based approaches that are responsive Bangladesh alone. longer-term support to such governments to the specific needs and opportunities In 2016, the UN General Assembly in ways that strengthen national and local of vulnerable populations (refugees and (GA) unanimously adopted the New York development plans to support both host hosts). Attention to the timing-to-impact Declaration, marking the first time the and refugee populations. of interventions, with a mix of short- GA (including those not signatory to the The first of these models was deployed medium-, and long-term actions, would UN 1951 Convention on Refugees) had in response to the created also better serve refugees and hosts. affirmed commitments to responsibility- by the Syrian war that has resulted in In , for example, over 200,000 sharing for comprehensive refugee over 5 million Syrian refugees seeking children remain out of school; adopting a response. This responsibility-sharing safety in neighbouring countries. A non-formal education approach, regulated should include not only humanitarian core tenet of the Compact – an by the government, alongside its formal aid for immediate needs but also an agreement between the Jordanian strategy would have put many more ambitious package of longer-term government, the World Bank, the EU children in school. In Jordan, better design financing, resettlement opportunities and and others – was to drive growth and of trade concessions could have created innovative support from a wide range job creation for all of Jordan, from which stronger incentives for firms to invest and of partners. Such an approach – when both local and refugee populations could create jobs in geographic areas closer to combined with greater opportunities for benefit. The Jordan Compact secured vulnerable populations. refugee education, livelihoods and well- significant international support, Bangladesh can learn from and being – can support the needs of refugees, including trade concessions and up to $1.8 improve on prior models by seeking local communities and host nations. billion in financing. These investments international commitments that support The opportunity at hand for Bangladesh were paired with opportunities for key growth and livelihoods opportunities is to claim its rightful support from the refugees to access legal employment. For in Cox’s Bazar and the broader international community, and to do example, the Compact leveraged EU trade region to maximise benefits for local so in ways that support Bangladesh’s concessions to increase investment in populations. And it could incorporate development trajectory and deliver special economic zones, where companies a central lesson – and a key ingredient benefits for both Rohingya and host could benefit from enhanced trade terms of Bangladesh’s own development communities in Cox’s Bazar. A Solidarity if their workforce included refugees. success – that robust consultation with Compact, a multiyear agreement between In Lebanon, the compact focused on refugees and host communities is critical. Bangladesh and international partners, strengthening and expanding the reach Achieving impact require including could bring together such responsibility- of the national education system, with the experience, voices and priorities of sharing commitments, ranging from investments in infrastructure, teacher affected populations. trade concessions, private investment and training and data systems that will New approaches in Jordan, Lebanon, enhanced labour migration opportunities continue to benefit host communities, Ethiopia and elsewhere are based on to development and climate-financing even after Syrian refugees return home. evidence that well-designed interventions and resettlement agreements with Such investments also allowed Lebanon to can help mitigate the negative impacts partner nations. There is a unique enrol over 200,000 , some of protracted refugee crises and window of opportunity – before the next of whom had been out of school for three deliver dividends for both host and refugee communities. In taking these

Policy Insights | July 2018 31 Recently, Bangladesh agreed in principle to accept grant support from the World Consistent with the experience in East Africa and the Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to help respond to the crisis. Other , historically limited service provision and donors, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Islamic refugee exclusion in Bangladesh has not prevented Development Bank, could make additional financing available. Likewise, given the thousands of Rohingya from fleeing successive waves shock of hosting an additional 700,000 of violence and persecution in Myanmar. people in an area already vulnerable to climate risks, funds such as the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility should consider favourable terms approaches, host nations are increasingly experienced an outbreak of deadly and additional financing for Bangladesh. contesting conventional wisdom – that but preventable diphtheria – a disease But, recognising the scale and including refugees in national safety previously eradicated in Bangladesh – the likely duration of the crisis alongside nets and enabling their access to jobs authorities mitigated the impact on host Bangladesh’s generosity, the international and education will act as a ‘pull factor’, communities with more, not less, service community must think beyond traditional attracting refugees to countries of asylum provision, broadening immunisation humanitarian and development and deterring them from returning programmes for both hosts and refugees. financing. We propose exploring a home. The available evidence suggests Similarly, improving Rohingyas’ access range of ‘beyond aid’ contributions, differently. to sustainable cooking fuels is critical including trade concessions, labour Consistent with the experience in East to limiting further deforestation. The mobility opportunities, private sector Africa and the Middle East, historically government of Bangladesh’s approval investment and new investments in limited service provision and refugee of the rollout of UNHCR’s liquefied regional initiatives. Targeted efforts, exclusion in Bangladesh has not petroleum gas initiative across such as those by the World Bank and prevented thousands of Rohingya from settlements in Cox’s Bazar, and including ADB, are laudable but will yield greater fleeing successive waves of violence most vulnerable families of the host results if coordinated with a package of and persecution in Myanmar. As with community, provides a positive example mutually reinforcing aid and beyond aid Somalis, Syrians and Iraqis, the primary of how such initiatives are being taken up commitments. motivation for seeking asylum is safety, at scale. As mentioned above, the Jordan and it is the ‘push’ factor of violence in Compact included new trade concessions their home country that most shapes with the EU intended to create new decisions to leave or stay. Similarly, jobs and growth for Syrian and host A Solidarity Compact for communities. Trade concessions, bilateral service provision and other policies, such Bangladesh as access to skills training, are aligned and multilateral, can encourage long-term To provide and sustain such investment in Bangladesh, help increase with an ultimate goal of facilitating safe interventions, Bangladesh needs and voluntary returns. Evidence from and diversify its exports and extend or expanded international support and open market opportunities. To its great indicates that providing refugees responsibility-sharing that strengthens with support and assistance to ensure credit, Bangladesh has recently met the social service delivery systems, economic criteria to graduate from least developed they have livelihoods skills appropriate to opportunities and opportunity for all. This the markets to which they are returning country (LDC) status, which means it will should include a protection framework for graduate in 2024 and lose its duty-free, decreases the chances of secondary the Rohingya that provides the rights and displacement or return to refugee camps. quota-free access to EU markets after a opportunities they are entitled to under three-year grace period. In recognition of In contrast, when skills, education and international humanitarian law and opportunities for self-sufficiency are Bangladesh’s role in providing the global national law, and that underpin the win- absent, dependence on aid and the public good of hosting the Rohingya, win approaches described above. With all including the associated near-term costs, infrastructure that provides it grows. of this in mind, what could a Solidarity Limitations on service provision and the EU could consider extending the Compact for Bangladesh include? period after graduation for one or more livelihoods opportunities can, however, Given the cost estimates of hosting the undermine the well-being of both refugee years. Some estimates indicate that this Rohingya, new financing is essential. could represent a benefit of more than 5% and host communities. In Jordan, for A number of bilateral donors – led by example, ever-increasing poverty among of GDP per year. (with a recent $300 million in Likewise, the USA could consider refugees and limited access to work and pledges) and the USA (with more than education resulted in an increase in early reinstatement of the generalised system of $200 million in pledges), as well as the preferences (GSP), which was suspended marriage and child labour rates. Multiple UK – have provided critical humanitarian countries that have limited access to after the Rana Plaza tragedy in 2013. funding to Bangladesh and expressed Beyond reinstatement of the GSP, the education for refugees within national their commitment to support the response systems have seen instead the creation of USA could explore deeper trade relations over the medium term. But even more between the two countries, such as duty- informal schools with curricula outside funds are needed to reverse the negative the reach of review and approval of free market access to a wider range of consequences to host communities Bangladeshi exports through the end of national education authorities. and to improve service delivery and Bangladesh is already experiencing the grace period after LDC graduation. opportunities for both Bangladeshis and Whether with the EU, the USA or other strain on its services and resources, the Rohingya. and is responding earlier and better. trade partners, concessions could also There are signs that discussions on include relaxing the rules of origin (ROO) For example, when Cox’s Bazaar longer-term financing are advancing.

32 Policy Insights | July 2018 that govern the proportion of the export should also consider multiple tools that is locally produced, especially in and assistance for catalysing private emerging sectors such as agro-processing, sector investment in Cox’s Bazar and information and communication beyond. For example, they could access technology and leather goods. Relaxed support through the new World Bank/ ROO can provide developing markets International Finance Corporation an entry point to greater exports and window to increase private investment international market access, helping build in low-income countries. This includes up a sector. Trade discussions should both a risk mitigation facility that provides recognise progress in health and safety guarantees to attract private financing standards and include robust efforts to for large infrastructure projects, as well improve labour rights and conditions, so as risk insurance for a range of projects. that any new agreement serves to raise Other bilateral development finance standards and conditions for all workers. institutions, such as the USA’s Overseas Another component of the compact Private Investment Corporation and the could be new labour mobility UK’s CDC Group, can use similar tools to opportunities for Bangladeshis to Gulf, facilitate increased private investment. Southeast Asian, European and other Partners can also contribute technical countries with unmet labour needs. assistance and support for improvements Bangladesh’s foreign minister recently in Bangladesh’s business climate, which announced more than 1 million are likely needed for any of these efforts Bangladeshis migrated abroad for work to succeed at scale. Photo by CAFOD Photo Library in 2017. That same year, remittances Finally, a compact should engage accounted for 8% of Bangladesh’s partners that have a strong interest GDP – the second largest source of in strengthening regional economic garment factories, can create new and foreign flows. As a contribution to and strategic ties. Tensions between decent job opportunities in Bangladesh responsibility-sharing, Bangladesh’s Bangladesh and Myanmar as a result of if supported by efforts to meet labour partners could consider increased the Rohingya crisis have stalled progress and safety standards. The Association quotas for Bangladeshi migrant workers, on a number of regional initiatives. of South-East Asian Countries could regularising the status of current migrant Renewed efforts and new commitments, serve as a forum for intensive dialogue workers and additions to labour mobility both economic and diplomatic, can help on potential bilateral commitments to agreements that would amplify their reinvigorate these partnerships. For a compact, whether related to trade, benefits to workers and to Bangladesh. example, the Bay of Initiative for investment, disaster risk reduction or For example, they could include skills Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic labour mobility policies. training that increases migrant labour Cooperation (BIMSTEC), an organisation While this is by no means an productivity and measures that support that fosters economic and technical exhaustive list, it is nonetheless indicative ethical recruitment and decent working cooperation in South and , of the potential level of ambition conditions. could promote trade, investment and Bangladesh could pursue in its dialogue Increased labour mobility technical assistance targeted at priority with the international community. If opportunities, including for nationals sectors in Cox’s Bazar economy such as designed well, a Solidary Compact can living in Cox’s Bazar, can reduce agriculture and tourism. mitigate risks of the crisis and drive pressure on the local labour market and China’s Belt and Road Initiative has new opportunities for Bangladeshis and spur development through increased already planned investments that connect Rohingya alike. Key to realising this remittances at the household and national Bangladesh and Myanmar, such as the opportunity, however, is early leadership levels. It would also be an opportunity Bangladesh-China--Myanmar on the part of Bangladesh, while they for Gulf states and others to help address (BCIM) economic corridor. As part rightly have the world’s attention and a global challenge sustainably and on of a compact, China could accelerate support for the refuge they have provided mutually beneficial terms. Any labour planned investments in Bangladesh to a most persecuted population. mobility agreement should come and also consider new investments with guarantees around strict worker in Cox’s Bazar. Similarly, China could protections and care and also advance consider more rapid investment in the broader efforts to improve the conditions relocation of sunset industries. Moving Cindy Huang is a Senior Policy Fellow and of migrant workers. some of its labour-intensive and low- the Program Co-Director of Center for Global As part of a compact, partners tech manufacturing, such as textile and Development.

Nazanin Ash is the Vice President of Global Policy and Advocacy of International Rescue Tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar as a Committee.

result of the Rohingya crisis have stalled progress Marcus Skinner is the Conflict and Humanitarian Policy Advisor of International on a number of regional initiatives. Renewed Rescue Committee.

efforts and new commitments, both economic and Kate Gough is a Migration and Displacement diplomatic, can help reinvigorate these partnerships. Research Assistant of Center for Global Development.

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