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World Bank Document FILE COPY o RE§UtED 10 R lDOCUMENTO;NTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Not For Public Use Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. P-1612a-YU REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN Public Disclosure Authorized TO REPUBLISKA SKUPNOST ZA CESTE S.R. SLOVENIJE (Republic Community for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Slovenia) ZAJEDNICA PREDUZECA ZA PUTEVE S.R. SRBIJE (Association of Enterprises for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Serbia) and REPUBLISKA SAMOUPRAVNA INTERESNA ZAJEDNICA ZA PUTEVE S.R. CRNE GORE (Self-Managing Republic Interest Community for Roads of-the Socialist Republic of Montenegro) Public Disclosure Authorized WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE SOCIALIST FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA FOR A SEVENTH HIGHWAY PROJECT June 25, 1975 Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS * Currency Unit Yugoslav Dinar (Din.) US$1 Din. 16.00 Din. 1 us$o.0625 Din. 1,000 US$62.50 Din. 1,000,000 US$62,500.00 * The Yugoslav Dinar has been floating since July 13, 1973. The currency equivalents given above are as of September 30, 197h. The Yugoslav Central Bank established on October 29, 1974 a new intervention rate of US$1.00 equal to Dinars 17.23. Fiscal Year January 1 to December 31 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO REPUBLISKA SKUPNOST ZA CESTE S.R. SLOVENIJE (Republic Community for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Slovenia), ZAJEDNICA PREDUZECA ZA PUTEVE S.R. SRBIJE (Association of Enterprises for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Serbia) and REPUBLISKA SAMOUPRAVNA INTERESNA ZAJEDNICA ZA PUTEVE S.R. CRNE GORE (Self-Managing Republic Interest Community for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Montenegro) WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE SOCIALIST FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Republic Community for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Slovenia, the Association of Enterprises for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Serbia, and the Self-Managing Republic Interest Community for Roads of the Socialist Republic of Montenegro, with the guarantee of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, for the equivalent of US$40.0 million to help finance a seventh highway project. The loan would have a term of 23 years, including three and one-half years of grace, with interest at 8-1/2 percent per annum. Of the loan, $100,000 would be set aside for technical assistance; a portion of this sum would be held by the three Borrowers for their share, and the balance re- lent to the other republican and provincial road organizations, or subsidiary borrowers. 1/ The portion relent to the subsidiary borrowers would be deter- mined by the expenditures in this category incurred for their benefit or for institutions located in their territory. The relending terms would be the same as those of the Bank Loan. 1/ These are: (i) Republicki Fond za Puteve S.R. Bosne i Hercegovine, Sarajevo (Republic Road Fund of Bosnia and Herzegovina); (ii) Republicki Fond za Ceste S.R. Hrvatske, Zagreb (Republic Road Fund of Croatia); (iii) Republicki Fond za Patista S.R. Makedonije, Skopje (Republic Roa:d Fund of Macedonia); (iv) Saviet az Puteve ASP Vojvodine, Novi Sad (Provincial Road Council - Vojvodina); and (v) Preduzece za Puteve ASP Kosovo, Pristina (Provincial Road Enterprise - Kosovo). The use in the text of "road organizations" refers to both the borrowers and these subsidiary borrowers. PART I - THE ECONOMY in November 1972; its 2. A basic economic mission visited Yugoslavia tR74-1) was distri- report entitled "The Economic Development of Yugoslavia" An economic updating buted to the Executive Directors on January 2, 1974. are reflected mission visited the country in October 1974 and its findings Annex I. in this report. Basic data on the economy are given in Economic Trends and Development Issues growth and significant 3. The Yugoslav economy has experienced rapid at constant prices in- structural change during the past two decades. GDP GDP by over 4.5 percent creased by about 5.5 percent per year and per capita US$890 (1973). The per year. Average per capita GDP is estimated at around both absolutely and as number of people engaged in agriculture has decreased in industry and a percentage of the labor force, while the number engaged nearly half of the services has correspondingly increased. However in 1971 it on small private labor force was still engaged in agriculture, most of for 22 percent of the farms. Industry accounted for 23 percent and services labor force. About 10 percent were working abroad or unemployed. strengthened by the 4. Two important features of the economy have been the means of produc- recent constitutional changes. Self-management, whereby to them to manage, has tion used by different workers' collectives are given basic unit of orga- emerged as the fundamental right and obligation of every for most important nized labor in whatever sector. Second, the responsibility to the Republics and economic and social policy decisions has been delegated increasing reliance Provinces. Against this background, Yugoslavia has placed to international on the market mechanism and the opening-up of the economy trade. has been played 5. The leading role in economic and social development enterprises and institu- by the social sector, which includes government, most and which accounts tions such as libraries, hospitals, theatres and schools, labor force. All for 85 percent of GDP and employs over half of the total and re- the enterprises and institutions are under workers' self-management sector predominantly sources are under social ownership. There is a private land holdings) and comprised-of peasant farms (with a 10 hectare limit on of non-family workers), small enterprises (with a 5 person limit on the number and tourism. In the mainly in handicrafts, construction, trade, transport government policy. past the private sector has been relatively neglected by attention to private However, the government has lately been devoting more production. farmers with a view to accelerating the growth of agricultural - 3 - 6. Despite a policy of fostering accelerated growth in the less- developed regions, major differences persist in the levels of development among Republics. The more-developed regions are located in the north and include 65 percent of the population. But even this area includes sizeable pockets of poverty, particularly in private agriculture. The less-developed regions are in the south and are generally more mountainous and less densely populated. This makes agriculture and transportation more difficult. The southern regions are rich in minerals, coal and hydro-power generating poten- tial. The development of these resources has provided the major stimulus for growth. 7. Although the economy of the less-developed regions has been growing at almost the same rate as the more advanced areas, per capita income has lagged behind because of faster population growth (1.6 percent per year as compared with 0.7 percent in the more-developed regions). Consequently, regional inequalities have widened. Average per capita GDP in the less- developed regions now amounts to about 50 percent of that of the rest of the country. Yugoslavia's development policy aims at reducing regional inequal- ities by transferring investment funds from the more advanced to the less- developed regions. In 1972 these transfers amounted to almost US$300 mil- lion, about one-third of the less-developed regions' total investment ex- penditure. 8. In addition to significant regional income differences there are substantial sectoral income differences. For example, per capita GDP in pri- vate agriculture in Kosovo (by far the poorest region), is just over US$100 or about one-ninth of the national average. Many private farmers there sup- plement their incomes by working in the social sector but are, nevertheless, unable to maintain an adequate standard of living. Although incomes in pri- vate agriculture are somewhat higher in other parts of the country, they re- main far below those obtaining in non-agricultural activities. 9. Thus far, the employment situation in Yugoslavia has remained man- ageable not least because of the sizeable temporary migration abroad which, since 1972 has stabilized at a level of about 1.1 million. Open unemployment was estimated to be around 3.5 percent of the resident active population in mid-1974, and in the private agricultural sector there was severe underem- ployment. There is considerable public concern about the size and composi- tion of the emigrant labor force. The Government expects that the economy has now reached a level and momentum of development which should create an annual increase of domestic employment exceeding the natural increase in the labor force and policies are being introduced to encourage the return of skilled and educated workers and those who have been abroad for some time. However, due to an economic slowdown in major recipient countries, job opportunities abroad may decline and migrant workers may return faster than intended with potentially negative effects on domestic unemployment and on the balance of payments. -4- Recent Developments by inflation and 10. Rapid economic growth since 1968 was accompanied financial diffi- balance of payments problems. Many enterprises experienced programs and a lack culties primarily as a result of over-zealous investment the external pay- of financial discipline. To counter inflation and improve measures aimed at ments position, the Government, in 1972 and 1973, adopted temporarily restricting monetary expansion, limiting public expenditure, personal income, im- strengthening price controls, reducing the growth of limitations on proving the financial structure of enterprises and imposing pressure on external borrowing.
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