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Dissertation Irene Schrotenboer Final Tilburg University Dynamics of payments, conflict and economic activity Lubberman-Schrotenboer, I.G. Publication date: 2014 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in Tilburg University Research Portal Citation for published version (APA): Lubberman-Schrotenboer, I. G. (2014). Dynamics of payments, conflict and economic activity: Case studies of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. CentER, Center for Economic Research. 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Download date: 28. sep. 2021 Dynamics of payments, conflict and economic activity Case studies of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia Dynamics of payments, conflict and economic activity Case studies of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan Tilburg University op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. Ph. Eijlander, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van een door het college voor promoties aangewezen commissie in de aula van de Universiteit op maandag 1 december 2014 om 10:15 uur door Irene Geessien Lubberman-Schrotenboer geboren op 23 mei 1977 te Sneek. Promotores: Prof. dr. T.H.L. Beck Prof. dr. R.J.M. Beeres Prof. dr. J.M.M.L. Soeters Overige leden van de Promotiecommissie: Prof. dr. H.G. van Gemert Prof. dr. R.J. Berndsen Prof. dr. ir. G.E. Frerks Dr. F.H. Baudet To my father vi Contents Preface xv List of acronyms and abbreviations xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction . 1 1.2 Payments: an introduction . 3 1.3 The problem . 6 1.4 Understanding change . 7 1.5 Gap . 10 1.6 Research objective and questions . 11 1.7 Contribution . 13 1.8 Thesis setup . 13 2 Analytical framework 15 2.1 Introduction . 15 2.2 Payment modes . 17 2.3 Payer-payee interaction . 21 2.4 Payment networks . 23 2.5 Currencies . 26 2.6 Payment systems . 29 2.7 A categorisation of changes in payments . 32 2.8 Conclusion . 34 3 Methodology 37 3.1 Introduction . 37 3.2 Case study . 37 3.2.1 Case study method . 37 3.2.2 Case study design . 38 3.2.3 Case selection . 40 3.3 Data . 42 3.3.1 Data collection . 42 3.3.2 Interviews . 44 3.3.3 Documents . 46 3.3.4 Archival records . 47 3.3.5 Direct observations . 48 3.3.6 Physical artefacts . 48 3.4 Analysis . 50 vii viii CONTENTS 3.4.1 Analytical strategy . 50 3.4.2 Analytical tools . 52 3.4.3 Within-case analysis . 53 3.4.4 Cross-case analysis . 53 3.5 Quality of the research design . 55 4 The context 57 4.1 Introduction . 57 4.2 The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia . 58 4.3 Economic decline . 61 4.4 Bosnian War . 64 4.5 Kosovo War . 70 4.6 Economic situation after the wars . 72 5 Case Bosnia and Herzegovina 77 5.1 Introduction . 77 5.2 Pre-war situation . 77 5.3 Split of the payment system . 82 5.4 Operational failure . 83 5.5 Monetary sovereignty under circumstances of war . 86 5.6 Hyperinflation and black markets . 89 5.7 The end of hyperinflation . 94 5.8 Provisional solutions for a countrywide payment system . 96 5.9 Towards a unitary payment system . 97 5.10 Introduction of the single currency . 99 5.11 Transformation of the payment system . 104 6 Case Serbia 107 6.1 Introduction . 107 6.2 Pre-war situation . 107 6.3 Preserving the Yugoslav dinar . 109 6.4 War finance, hyperinflation and Deutsch Mark . 111 6.5 The end of hyperinflation . 117 6.6 From peg to float . 118 6.7 Kosovo conflict . 119 6.8 Montenegro's course . 120 6.9 Transformation of the payment system . 122 6.10 The problem of a euroised economy . 124 7 Analysis 127 7.1 Introduction . 127 7.2 Analysis of the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina . 128 7.2.1 From transaction to no transaction . 128 7.2.2 From impersonal to personal transfer . 130 7.2.3 From formal to informal transfer . 131 7.2.4 From voluntarily to de facto personal transfer . 132 7.2.5 From no transaction to transaction . 133 7.2.6 From de facto to voluntarily personal transfer . 134 7.2.7 From personal to impersonal transfer . 134 7.2.8 From informal to formal transfer . 138 CONTENTS ix 7.2.9 From old to new currency . 139 7.2.10 From domestic to foreign currency . 143 7.2.11 From foreign to domestic currency . 146 7.2.12 Change versus change . 146 7.3 Analysis of the case of Serbia . 148 7.3.1 From transaction to no transaction . 148 7.3.2 From impersonal to personal transfer . 148 7.3.3 From formal to informal transfer . 149 7.3.4 From voluntarily to de facto personal transfer . 149 7.3.5 From no transaction to transaction . 149 7.3.6 From de facto to voluntarily personal transfer . 150 7.3.7 From personal to impersonal transfer . 150 7.3.8 From informal to formal transfer . 152 7.3.9 From old to new currency . 152 7.3.10 From domestic to foreign currency . 154 7.3.11 From foreign to domestic currency . 155 7.3.12 Change versus change . 155 7.4 Cross-case analysis . 156 7.4.1 Case versus case . 156 7.4.2 Across case versus context . 159 7.5 Concluding remarks . 159 8 Discussion and conclusion 161 8.1 Answering the research questions . 161 8.1.1 What shapes decision-making with regard to payment modes and the currencies in which payments are made, with what economic outcome and how does a conflict af- fect the decision process? . 161 8.1.2 What series of changes in payments may occur in the pre- lude to a conflict, during conflict and in the aftermath of a conflict? . 162 8.1.3 What accounts for changes in payments and the economic outcome of those changes in the prelude to a conflict, dur- ing conflict and in the aftermath of a conflict? . 163 8.1.4 To what extent does the conflict account for the changes in payments in the prelude to a conflict, during conflict and in the aftermath of a conflict? . 164 8.2 Limitations of the study . 164 8.3 Future research . 165 8.4 Conclusion and recommendations . 166 A List of symbols 171 B Game Theory 173 C Currencies in Bosnia and Herzegovina 177 D Currencies in Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo 181 Summary 199 x CONTENTS About the author 203 List of Figures 1.1 Actors in payments . 5 1.2 Thesis setup . 14 2.1 Unilateral payments decision tree . 19 2.2 Examples of cash-based payment networks . 23 2.3 Examples of non-cash payment networks . 24 2.4 Network with low level of integration . 28 2.5 The effects of netting on liquidity need . 30 3.1 The design of the case study . 39 3.2 The case study design and dataset . 41 3.3 Convergence of evidence . 43 3.4 Within-case and cross-case analysis . 54 4.1 Map of former Yugoslavia as of 2008 . 59 4.2 Map of former Yugoslavia during wartime . 67 5.1 1992 Novˇcanibon with stamp of the SDK in Visoko . 84 5.2 BiH dinar 1993 Emergency Issue with additional zeros . 90 5.3 BiH dinar 1993 NovˇcaniBon Emergency Issue with overprint . 90 6.1 Yugoslav dinar banknote with highest denomination ever. 115 7.1 Unilateral payments decision tree . 128 7.2 Examples of changes of network structure associated with a change from impersonal to personal money transfer . 131 7.3 Examples of network structures with one central bank and with three payment circles . 135 7.4 Connections between three payment systems in.
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