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Islamic Finance Outlook 2021 Edition 3 Foreword

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Islamic Finance Outlook 2021 Edition 3 Foreword IIslamicslamic FFinanceinance OOutlookutlook 22021020 Edition Contents 2021 Foreword Islamic Finance 2020-2021: Covid-19 Offers An Opportunity For Transformative Developments 4 Acknowledgement 7 Sukuk Outlook Islamic Finance 2020-2021: COVID-19 Offers An Opportunity For Transformative Developments 8 Global Sukuk Market: A Window Of Opportunity Is Opening 13 Presale: GFH Sukuk Company Ltd. 17 Presale: Axiata SPV2 Bhd. 20 Spotlight On… Islamic Finance And ESG: Sharia-Compliant Instruments Can Put The S In ESG 24 Prolonged COVID-19 Disruption Could Expose The GCC’s Weaker Borrowers 28 Banks GCC Banks Face An Earnings Shock From The Oil Price Drop And COVID-19 Pandemic 32 Will COVID-19 And Cheap Oil Reset The Market For GCC Tier 1 Instruments? 43 AAOIFI’s Proposal May Result In Different Interpretations On The Treatment Of Unrestricted Investment Accounts 47 Insurance COVID-19 And Lower Oil Prices Could Accelerate Consolidation Among Saudi Arabian Insurers 50 S&P Global Ratings List 54 Glossary Of Islamic Finance Terms: August 2015 Update 56 S&P Global Ratings Contact List 58 spglobal.com/ratings Islamic Finance Outlook 2021 Edition 3 Foreword Dr. Mohamed Damak Islamic Finance 2020-2021 Senior Director & Global Head COVID-19 OFFERS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR of Islamic Finance TRANSFORMATIVE DEVELOPMENTS S&P Global Ratings believes that global Islamic finance 3- Lockdown measures, implemented by various industry growth will slow significantly in 2020-2021 countries around the world, have also shown the after strong performance in 2019 underpinned by a more importance of leveraging technology and creating a dynamic sukuk market. This is due to the significant nimbler Islamic finance industry. Higher digitalization slowdown in core Islamic finance economies in 2020, amid and fintech collaboration could help strengthen the measures implemented by various governments to contain resilience of the industry in a more volatile environment the COVID-19 pandemic, and the expected mild recovery in and open new avenues for growth. However, recent 2021. months have demonstrated that there is still room for improvement, particularly for sukuk issuance, Despite the challenging environment, we see opportunities compliance with regulations, and ease and speed of to accelerate and unlock the long term potential of the execution. industry. In particular: With the right coordination between different Islamic 1- We think that Islamic financesocial instruments can finance stakeholders, we believe the industry can create help core countries, banks, companies and individuals new sustainable growth opportunities that serve its economically affected by the pandemic navigate markets. Moreover, thanks to its key principles, Islamic current conditions, with market participants eyeing finance can help mitigate the effects of the pandemic Qard Hassan, Zakat, Waqf, and Social Sukuk. The on core countries and contribute to shared prosperity. Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) was a first mover However, the industry is more than ever in need of strong with its $1.5 billion sustainability sukuk, which will and decisive reforms to enhance this contribution. Almost reportedly be used to help member countries cope with 50 years ago, the promoters of Islamic finance succeeded the effects of the pandemic, particularly in the health in unearthing a new industry and we believe it is now the care and small and midsize enterprises segments. responsibility of all stakeholders to ensure that it can We expect other similar issuances in core Islamic reach its full potential. finance countries and believe they could help put the Islamic finance industry back on environmental, social, We hope you enjoy the 2021 edition of our Annual Outlook and governance (ESG) investors’ radar. For Islamic Finance, and as always, we welcome and encourage your feedback on our research and insights. 2- We also believe that streamlining sukuk issuance will restore its attractiveness to issuers. Issuing sukuk remains more complex and time consuming than conventional bonds. As with previous crises, the pandemic has shown that when Islamic finance issuers need swift access to capital markets, they typically use conventional instruments. However, there are some exceptions including issuers with already-established programs or that can tap a recent issuance; issuers that are under stress and need to access all available funding sources; or issuers that are domiciled in jurisdictions where the sukuk process is streamlined. Because of the pandemic, stakeholders are realizing the importance of inclusive standardization. 4 Islamic Finance Outlook 2021 Edition spglobal.com/ratings Foreword ا ﻟ لﯾوﻣﺗ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا 2020-2021 : أ ﺔﻣز ﻓوﻛ ﯾ د -19 ﺗ ﻛ فﺷ نﻋ ﻓ صر ﺗ وط ﯾ ر رھوﺟ ﯾ ﺔ ﺔﯾرو ﻲﻓ ا ﻟ عﺎطﻘ .د دﻣﺣﻣ قﻣد رﯾدﻣ لوأ او ﺋرﻟ سﯾ ا ﻟ ﻌ ﺎ ﻲﻣﻟ ﻟ ﻠ لﯾوﻣﺗ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا ﺪﻘﺘﻌ! ﺔﻟﺎ)و سإ" ﺪﻧآ ﻲ1 لﺎ6ﻮﻠﺟ تﺎﻔﻴ9ﺼﺘﻠﻟ "ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻤﺘﺋﻻا نأ ﻮﻤﻧ عﺎﻄﻗ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا ﺄﻃﺎﺒLﻴﺳ ﻞRﺸP ظﻮSTﻣ VW ةXYﻔﻟا ةﺪﺘﻤﳌا ﺎﻣ ﺑ ن[ ن[ ﺑ ﺎﻣ ةﺪﺘﻤﳌا ً ً 2020-2021 ، و ذ ﻚﻟ P ﺪﻌ أ ن ﻖﻘﺣ ا ﻟ ﻄﻘ ﺎ ع ﻧﻤﻮا ﻗﻮFﺎ WV اﻟﻌﺎم 2019 ، ﺑﺪﻋﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻮق اﻟﺼRﻮك اﻟﺬي )ﺎن rYﻛأ ﻮﻴﺣ F ﺔ و F ﺮﺴﻔ ﻩﺬu ﺬ ً ا ﻟ ﺘ ﻮ ﻌﻗ تﺎ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﻃﺆ اﳌTSﻮظ WV اﻗﺘﺼﺎدات اﻟﺪول اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮFﻞ اﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ WV اﻟﻌﺎم 2020؛ ﻧLﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻺﺟﺮاءات اﻟ~ اﺗﺨﺬÉÇﺎ اﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ا تﺎﻣﻮÖTR ءاﻮﺘﺣﻻ ﺟ ﺎ ﺋ ﺔﺤ ﻓﻮ) ﺪﻴ -19 ، و تﺎﻌﻗﻮﺘﻟا ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺘﺑ ا ﻧ ﺘ ﻌ شﺎ ﻣ ﻌ ﺘ لﺪ VW مﺎﻋ 2021. و6ﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻈﺮوف اTÖﺎﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ، ﻧﺮى ﺑﺄن اﻟﻔﺮص ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻹﻃﻼق إﻣ تﺎﻴﻧﺎR عﺎﻄﻘﻟا èêﻋ ىﺪﳌا ،ﻞFﻮﻄﻟا ﺺﺧﻷﺎ6و ﺎﻣ :èWﻳ î -1 ﻌ ﺘ ﺪﻘ ﺑ نﺄ تاودﻷا ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌا ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻا VW عﺎﻄﻗ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻼﺳﻹا ﻣﻲ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن !ﺴﺎﻋﺪ اﻟﺪول اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ WV اﻟﻘﻄﺎع ، ،كﻮﻨﺒﻟاو ،كﻮﻨﺒﻟاو ، ً واﻟﺸﺮ)ﺎت، واﻷﻓﺮاد اﳌﺘﺄﺛﺮFﻦ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺎ تﺎﻴﻋاﺪﺘﻟﺎﺑ ا ﻠﺴﻟ ﺒ ﻴ ﺔ Sﻟ ò ﺎ ﺋ ﺔﺤ ، ﻣﻊ ﺗﻄﻠﻊ اﳌﺸﺎرﻛ[ن WV اﻟﺴﻮق ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎدة ﻣﻦ أ ود تا تا ود أ )ﺎﻟﻘﺮض اTÖﺴﻦ، واﻟﺰ)ﺎة، واﻟﻮﻗﻒ، واﻟﺼRﻮك اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ. و)ﺎن اﻟﺒﻨﻚ اﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ أول ﻦﻣ كﺮﺤﺗ É û ﺬ ا ا ﻻ ﺎﺠﺗ ﻩ ﻦﻣ لﻼﺧلﺧ ﻣ ﺠ اﺬûÉكﺤ ﻦ اﺪﺻإ ر كﻮRﺻ اﺪﺘﺴﻣ ﺔﻣ ﺑ ﺔﻤﻴﻘ 1.5 رﺎﻴﻠﻣ رﻻود ،ﻲFRﺮﻣأ ~ﻟاو ﺐﺴﺤﺑ ﺗﻘﺎرFﺮ ﺳLﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺎﻋ اﺪﺋ É Ç ﺎ ﺎﺴﳌ ﺪﻋ ة ا ﻟ وﺪ ل ا ﻷ ﻀﻋ ﺎ ء VW ا ﻟ ﺒ ﻚﻨ ﻮﳌ £ﺟا ﺔ آ رﺎﺛ ا ò Ö ﺎ ﺋ ﺔﺤ ، èêﻋ ﮫﺟو ا Ö صﻮﺼ• ﺎﻄﻗ ¶ W ا ﺎﻋﺮﻟ ﺔﻳ ا ﻟ ßT ﻴ ﺔ و ا ﳌ ﺆ ﺴﺳ ﺎ ت ا ﻟ ﻐﺼ [ Y ة و ا ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﻄﺳ ﺔ . ﻧﺘﻮﻗﻊ إﺻﺪارات أﺧﺮى ﻣﺸﺎÉûﺔ WV اﻟﺪول اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮFﻞ اﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ، او ~ﻟ ﻌî ﺘ ﺪﻘ ﺎÉ©ﺄﺑ ﻦﻣ ﳌا ﻦﻜﻤ نأ ﺪﻋﺎﺴ! VW ةدﻮﻋ عﺎﻄﻗ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا عﺎﻄﻗ ةدﻮﻋ VW ﺪﻋﺎﺴ! نأ ﻦﻜﻤ إ ê™ اد ةﺮﺋ مﺎﻤﺘuا ا Lﺴﳌ ﺜ ﺮﻤ F ﻦ اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺪﻋﻤﻮن ﻷا ﺪu فا ﺔﻴ¨ﻴﺒﻟا و ا ﺘﺟﻻ ﻤ ﺎ ﻋ ﻴ ﺔ و ﻮﺣ ﻛ ﻤ ﺔ ا ﻟ ﺮﺸ ) ﺎ ت . ً î -2ﻌﺘﻘﺪ أﻳﻀﺎ ﺑﺄن ﺗ≠ﺴﻴﻂ إﺟﺮاءات إﺻﺪار اﻟﺼRﻮك ﺳﻴﻌﻴﺪ ﺟﺎذﺑﻴÉØﺎ ﻟﻠ ُﻤ ْﺼﺪرFﻦ. ﺗﺒﻘﻰ إﺟﺮاءات إﺻﺪار اﻟﺼRﻮك ةﺪﻘﻌﻣ ﺪﻌ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ تاءاﺮﺟإ راﺪﺻإ تاﺪﻨﺴﻟا .ﺔﻳﺪﻴﻠﻘﺘﻟا ﺎﻤﻛو ثﺪﺣ لﻼﺧ اﻷزﻣﺎت ا ﺎﺴﻟ ،ﺔﻘﺑ ﺮ£ﻇأ ت ﺎﺟ ﺔﺤﺋ ﻓﻮ) ﺪﻴ -19 ﮫﻧﺄﺑ ﺎﻣﺪﻨﻋ ﺎﻣﺪﻨﻋ ﮫﻧﺄﺑ ُ ً ﺘﺤﻳ جﺎ اﳌ ْﺼﺪرون WV عﺎﻄﻗ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا ê™إ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل اﻟﺴﺮ∑ﻊ ﻷﺳﻮاق رأس اﳌﺎل، ﻓﺈ©Éﻢ ﻋﺎدة ﺎﻣ ﻳòSﺆون ﻟﻸدوات اﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ. ُ ً ﻊﻣ ذ ﻚﻟ ، كﺎﻨu ﺾﻌP ،تاءﺎﻨªﺘﺳﻻا ﻦﻣ ﺑ ﻴ É º ﺎ اﳌ ْﺼﺪرFﻦ اﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻤﻠRﻮن ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ إﺻﺪار ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ وأ اﻟﻘﺎدرF ﻦ èêﻋ ا ﺘﺳﻻ ﻔ ﺎ د ة ﺳ ُ ﻦﻣ اﻹﺻﺪارات اTÖﺪﻳﺜﺔ أو اﳌ ْﺼﺪرFﻦ اﻟﻮاﻗﻌ[ن ﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻀﻐﻮط وFﺤﺘﺎﺟﻮن ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮل òÖﻤﻴﻊ ردﺎﺼﻣ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺔﺣﺎﺘﳌا وأ وأ ﺔﺣﺎﺘﳌا ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ردﺎﺼﻣ ُ اﳌ ْﺼﺪرFﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤ[ ن VW دول ¿ﻓ É ﺎ تاءاﺮﺟإ إ ﺪﺻ ا ر ا ﻟ Rﺼ كﻮ ﻠﺴﻠﺳ ﺔ . و 6 ﻞﻌﻔ ا ò Ö ﺎ ﺋ ﺔﺤ أدرك أ T¡ ﺎ ب ﺔSTﺼﳌا ىﺪﻣ ﺔﻴﻤuأ ﻊﺿو ﻊﺿو ﺔﻴﻤuأ ىﺪﻣ ﺔSTﺼﳌا ﺎﻌﻣ ﻳ [ Y ﻣ ﺪﺣﻮ ة . 3- ﻟ ﺪﻘ تﺮ£ﻇأ ﺮﺟإ ا ء تا ﺪﻴﻴﻘﺗ ﺔﻛﺮÖTا ، ا ~ﻟ ﻓﺮﺿÉØﺎ اﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪول ﺣﻮل اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ، ىﺪﻣ ﺔﻴﻤuأ ةدﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻا ﻦﻣ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟا ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟا ﻦﻣ ةدﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻا ﺔﻴﻤuأ ىﺪﻣ ، و≈îﺸﺎء ﻗﻄﺎع ﺗﻤﻮFﻞ إﺳﻼﻣﻲ أﻛYr ﻣﺮوﻧﺔ. إن زFﺎدة اﻟﺘﻌﺎون ﺑ[ن اﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ا ﺔﻴﻤﻗﺮﻟ و ا ﻟ ﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘ ﺎ ا ﳌ ﺎ ﻟ ﺔﻴ ﻦﻜﻤﻳ نأ ﺪﻋﺎﺴ∆ VW spglobal.com/ratings Islamic Finance Outlook 2021 Edition 5 Foreword ً ً !ﻌﺰFﺰ اﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻘﻄﺎع WV اﻟﺒ»ﺌﺎت اﻷﻛYr ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎ وFﻔﺘﺢ آﻓﺎﻗﺎ ةﺪﻳﺪﺟ .ﻮﻤﻨﻠﻟ ﻊﻣ ،ﻚﻟذ تﺮ£ﻇأ ﺮ£ﺷﻷا ةY[ﺧﻷا ﺄﺑ ﻧ ﮫ ﻻ ﻳ ﺰ ا ل u ﻨ كﺎ كﺎ ﻨ u ل ا ﺰ ﻳ ﻻ ﮫ ﻧ لﺎﺠﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ،مﺪﻘﺗ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻ VW راﺪﺻإ كﻮRﺼﻟا لﺎﺜﺘﻣﻻاو ﺢﺋاﻮﻠﻟ ،ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟا £ﺳو ﻮ ﻟ ﺔ ﺔﻋﺮﺳو ا ﻟ .ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺘ î ﻌ ﺘ ﺪﻘ ﺑ نﺄ عﺎﻄﻗ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا ﻦﻜﻤﻳ نأ ﻖﻠﺨﻳ ﺪFﺰﳌا ﻦﻣ صﺮﻓ ا ﻟ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘ ا ﺘﺴﳌ ﺪ ا ﻣ ﺔ ا ~ﻟ مﺪﺨﺗ قاﻮﺳﻷا ا ~ﻟ ﻳ ﺘ ﻮ ا ﺪﺟ ﻓ ¿ É ﺎ ﻣ ﻦ لﻼﺧ ﻼ ﻦﻣ اﻟﺘﻌﺎون اﻟﺒﻨﺎء ﺑ[ن ﺨﻣ ﺘ ﻒﻠ أ T¡ ﺎ ب ﺔSTﺼﳌا VW عﺎﻄﻗ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا . ةوﻼﻋ èêﻋ ،ﻚﻟذ نإ ئدﺎﺒﳌا ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷا ~ﻟا مﻮﻘﻳ ﺎÉ¿ﻠﻋ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﺎÉ¿ﻠﻋ مﻮﻘﻳ ~ﻟا ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷا ئدﺎﺒﳌا نإ ،ﻚﻟذ èêﻋ ةوﻼﻋ . ﻲﻣﻼﺳﻹا ﻦﻜﻤﻳ نأ ﺪﻋﺎﺴ! VW ا ﻟ ﻒﻴﻔﺨﺘ ﻦﻣ آ رﺎﺛ ا ò Ö ﺎ ﺋ ﺔﺤ ﻋêè اﻟﺪول اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟ ﻠ ﻄﻘ ﺎ ع و ا ﺎﺴﳌ ﻤu ﺔ W V ﺗ ﻘﺤ ﻖﻴ ا ﻟ ﺧﺮ ﺎ ء ا Xﺸﳌ كY ﻟ ﻢ£ . ﻣ ﻊ ذ ،ﻚﻟ ﻚ ﻊﻣ نإ عﺎﻄﻘﻟا نﻵا ﺔﺟﺎﺤﺑ rYﻛأ ﻦﻣ يأ ﺖﻗو ÕŒœﻣ تﺎﺣﻼﺻﻹ ﻮﻗ F ﺔ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﺣو ﻟ ﺰﻌﺘ F ﺰ ﻩﺬu ا ﺎﺴﳌ ﺔﻤu . ﻟ ﺪﻘ —–ﻧ اﳌﺮوﺟﻮن ﻟ عﺎﻄﻘ ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا ﻞFﻮﻤﺘﻟا عﺎﻄﻘ ً ا ﻼﺳﻹ ﻣ ﻲ ﻗ ﺒ ﻞ 50 ﻋﺎﻣﺎ WV وﺿﻊ ﻟا ﺎ)ﺮ ﺰﺋ ﻟ ﻄﻘ ﺎ ع ﺪﺟ ﻳ ﺪ و ﻧ ﻦﺤ ﻘﺘﻌî ﺪ ﺑﺄن اﳌﺴﺆوﻟﻴﺔ ا نﻵ ﺗ ﻊﻘ èﻋ ê ﺎﻋ ﻖﺗ ﻊﻴﻤﺟ بﺎT¡أ ا Sﺼﳌ T ﺔ ﻟ ﻤﻀ ﺎ ن ﻀﻟ ﺼ وﺻﻮل اﺬu عﺎﻄﻘﻟا Œœ“ﻗﻷ .ﮫﺗﺎﻧﺎRﻣإ ً ﻧ ﺄ ﻞﻣ ﺑ نﺄ ﺗ ﻨ لﺎ î •” ﺔ " ﺗ ﻮ ﻌﻗ تﺎ ا ﻟ ﺘ ﻮﻤ ﻞF ا ﻼﺳﻹ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ مﺎﻌﻠ 2021 " إ ò‘ ﺎ ﺑ ﻢﻜ ، و ﻧ ﺮ ﺐﺣ داﺋﻤﺎ ﺑﺂراﺋﻜﻢ و ! ﻌ ﻠ ﻴ ﻘ ﺎ ﺗ ﻢﻜ ﺣﻮل ﺎﻨﺗﻼﻴﻠﺤﺗ و أ ﺎﺤﺑ ﺛ ﻨ ﺎ .
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