Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester Resilience Strategy 2020 - 2030 APRIL 2021

PB 1 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Foreword & Nick Bailey Assistant Chief Constable, Greater Introduction Manchester Police, Chair of the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum

ince setting out to develop this Strategy, Greater Manchester has faced a deadly terrorist attack, major flooding, moorland fires on an unprecedented scale, the effects Sof COVID-19 and a range of other emergencies. During this period we have also planned for the UK’s exit from the EU and declared a Greater Manchester climate change emergency. It is clear that resilience is, and needs to be, a major priority for the city-region, an area that is home to over 2.8 million people.

Just as people, businesses and our cultural heritage tend to be concentrated in our town and cities, risks and opportunities are focused here too. In this context, urban resilience, and the capacity for the places in which we live and work to survive and, if possible, thrive through disruption and crises, becomes fundamental to our collective success.

We live in a world where uncertainty is a fact of life. But this doesn’t mean that our ability to create the future that we want should be limited. It doesn’t mean that we’ll wait for emergencies to happen before we act.

Greater Manchester has set out its plans for integrating health and social care services, boosting the economy, increasing the availability of affordable housing, reducing crime, enhancing community cohesion, and creating a better environment in which to live, work and visit.

But, in making these plans, we must consider the complex challenges we face and establish a pathway to maximise opportunities to build our resilience to the shocks and stresses that could affect us. Shocks such as the Boxing Day Floods in 2015 and, today, Covid-19 illustrate how impacts can be experienced unevenly across society, often hitting the most vulnerable and disadvantaged the hardest.

Urban resilience is about our capacity to deal with shocks or disruptive events such as severe weather or infrastructure failures that threaten to knock us off the path we have set for the future. But it is also dependent upon recognising and addressing chronic stresses such as poverty and social inequality that weaken the fabric of society and can undermine attempts to respond to crises and to create a stronger future in their aftermath.

Resilience must be about building the future in inclusive and integrated ways. This Strategy sets out a pathway towards that more resilient future. It recognises existing work that is vital to our resilience but also challenges us all to consider how our contribution to resilience could be enhanced.

As Chair of the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum that will lead this work, I invite you to join us on our journey towards greater resilience so that, together, we can make Greater Manchester one of the most resilient places in the world to grow up, get on and grow old together.

2 3 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Dr Kathy Oldham OBE Chief Resilience Officer, Greater Manchester Combined Authority

his Resilience Strategy is the first of its kind for Greater Manchester. It builds on moorland wildfires in 2018, rainfall damage nearly two decades of multi-agency working to plan and to respond to civil risks and to Toddbrook Reservoir in 2019 and, most Temergencies within the context of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004. It incorporates recently, the Covid-19 pandemic. learning from efforts in Greater Manchester and across the world to reduce the risk of disasters and crises. It has been created using the processes and tools developed by 100 This Strategy sets out our vision for Resilient Cities (now the Resilient Cities Network) which aim to catalyse the strengthening of a resilient Greater Manchester. In this urban resilience in our cities and city-regions. changing and complex world, our vision is to create one of the most resilient Emergencies have intensely personal and local impacts however the causes often places where everyone can grow up, get reflect global trends. This is particularly evident in the case of climate change and its on and age well together. It describes five projected consequences for the city-region. However, the ways in which we are affected priority areas to guide our work through by emergencies and longer-term shocks, are compounded by pre-existing challenges in to 2030 and sets out key themes within our society which often come to the fore in a crisis, whether a lack of community cohesion, these priorities. The Strategy will be insufficient funding for essential services, or degradation of the natural environment with a accompanied by an action plan, reviewed loss of biodiversity. This cycle can be mitigated by our approach to urban resilience and by regularly to ensure we stay on track. baking resilience considerations into every investment decision we make. The Strategy runs to 2030 since this is The development of this Strategy has been steered by the multi-agency partnership that the date by which countries across the coordinates civil resilience in the city-region: the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum. world, including our own, have committed Currently chaired by Greater Manchester Police, this Forum brings together over 80 agencies to making a real difference to reducing the to assess civil risks, to mitigate these risks where possible, to plan to respond should an occurrence of disasters. This commitment emergency occur and to support communities in the aftermath. is captured in the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 The first phase of developing this Strategy started in 2016 with an ‘Agenda Setting Workshop’, which, as one of its 7 targets, sets out to a scoping exercise involving a broad range of local stakeholders. Workshop sessions explored substantially increase the number of local the shocks and stresses facing Greater Manchester and the priorities for strengthening our disaster risk reduction strategies. Greater future resilience. This was followed by further workshops, consultation exercises, knowledge Manchester joins a growing number of exchanges with other cities, delivering resilience-building projects and continuing to learn cities that have taken up the challenge to from emergencies. The resulting Preliminary Resilience Assessment, published in 2018, deliver on this commitment. offered a resilience baseline for Greater Manchester and identified five ‘Discovery Areas’ (resilience challenges and opportunities) on which to concentrate. We are grateful to all the many individuals, communities and organisations who have Phase two, the drafting of this Strategy, was founded on experiences of implementing work helped to shape this Strategy and we look in these five Discovery Areas. This was in addition to further consultation, engagement with forward to harnessing their enthusiasm as a widening number of stakeholders and commissioning of specific research. It also drew we get to work on its delivery. Together we on learning from recent shock events, such as the Manchester Arena attack in 2017, the can create a more resilient future.

4 5 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Economy GreaterInfrastructure Manchester | Resilience Strategy

1.4m 3rd 29.36m working in GM busiest airport passengers per year Greater Manchester Facts +117k in 10 years in the UK 123k Metrolink 101km businesses is the largest light rail network of tracks in the UK

he 10 districts of Bolton, evolve which, along with creation of any new risks. But it Bury, Manchester, Oldham, considerable environmental also recognises that resilience 226k T more in employment 91m 14 major passenger rail journeys hospitals in GM Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, (including climate change) and needs to be embedded in since 2011 across GM a year Tameside, Trafford and Wigan technological changes, have the everything we do. That is why are home to over 2.8 million potential to bring opportunities this Strategy supports and people and together they form but also to impact significantly is supported by, a suite of £65.6bn the Greater Manchester city- upon our resilience. local and city-region activity GVA. Largest city-region economy outside London region. With a Gross Value including: Climate change Our communities face Added of £65.6 billion (Office many ongoing challenges. • Greater Manchester for National Statistics, 2017), For example, many people Strategy £511bn £23.4m Greater Manchester represents e-commerce transactions +13% spent on flood defences experience serious poor in the UK in 2016 winter rain falls the largest functional economic • Greater Manchester since 2013 health and deep-rooted area outside of London. Infrastructure Framework inequalities. People who live 2040 Greater Manchester has a in Greater Manchester are proud history of innovation likely, on average, to have a • Greater Manchester Local that includes the world’s first shorter life expectancy and a Industrial Strategy 500 +6.5m passenger railway, the first lower healthy life expectancy 10 square miles sqm of office, warehouse and Local industrial space since 2016 stored-program electronic (years of life with good general • Greater Manchester 5 Year Authorities computer and, in our own health) than the average for Environment Plan time, the Nobel Prize-winning England, with some areas • Taking Charge of Our Heath +227m isolation of graphene. We have experiencing a healthy life NW sqm of of housing and Social Care England and residential space also driven social progress. expectancy of below 50 years since 2016 The Chartists, the Trade Union of age. And over 1 million of our • Greater Manchester Police Rochdale movement, the Co-Operative residents live in areas amongst and Crime Plan 'Standing movement, and women’s the 20% most deprived in Together' Bolton Bury suffrage were all born in the England (University College city-region. England’s first civic London Institute for Health • Greater Manchester Age- Oldham university, the University of Equity, 2020). These drivers of Friendly Strategy Manchester, was established vulnerability, if left unchecked, • Greater Manchester Digital Wigan here and the area is now home will mean that any shock Blueprint to five universities, all with events or emergencies will Salford a leading role in education, have greater consequences for • Greater Manchester Hate Tameside research and discoveries that our residents. Crime Strategy Manchester have global importance. 14 This Strategy sets out how • Greater Manchester Rivers Greater Manchester has we would like to make Greater Transport Strategy Trafford seen major change over Manchester more resilient: 2nd past decades and this is better able to respond to risks most populous Stockport projected to continue. Our that do occur, to reduce where metropolitan area outside of Greater London population and employment possible the risks we face, 1.7m patterns are expected to and to avoid where we can the people in GM own a mobile 6th phone UK most densely populated area 2.8 21% Please note most figure date from before Covid19 pandemic million Residents residents from 6 +240k since 2000 ethnic minorities 7 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Mobilising Enhancing the capacity of communities to deal with emergencies and mobilising community participation in response and recovery Cohesion Dealing with hateful extremism through social Strategy on a page Communities cohesion 1 Building cohesive, healthy Resilience Finding ways to increase community resilience, and resilient communities including by supporting intergenerational engagement

Support Working with the voluntary and faith sectors at the local and national level to maximise the capacity to support communities

Risk Understanding hazards and vulnerability in Greater Manchester, including by identifying emerging and interdependent risk Measuring Discovery Measuring resilience through the use of metrics and baseline assessments 2 Enhancing resilience Innovation Developing new ideas to address risk and achieve understanding resilience dividends, including by drawing on academic expertise Opportunity Understanding and addressing the emerging challenges and opportunities of new technologies

In this changing and Governance Building on the governance structures and partnership working of the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum to complex world, our Vision 5 coordinate and drive resilience building activities Leadership Shaping is to create one of the most Shaping and influencing resilience agendas across 3 Greater Manchester, nationally and internationally Resilience Shaping resilience within to make them relevant and supportive to Greater Manchester’s communities resilient places where Greater Manchester Priorities Outcomes Ensuring that the delivery of the Resilience Strategy everyone can grow up, get represents value for money and improves outcomes for on and age well together. people in Greater Manchester

Economy Using a resilience lens to enhance our economy

Urban Growth Ensuring a resilient built environment – planning Place for resilient urban growth 4 Natural Environment Being ready for future Protecting and promoting the resilience value of challenges the natural environment Funding Leveraging funding to make us more resilient

What is resilience? Collaboration Assessing the risk of civil emergencies through The capacity of individuals, communities, multi-agency collaboration Preparedness institutions, businesses, and systems within a city Developing plans and capabilities to enable effective Responding response and recovery following emergencies to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of Training 5 Designing and delivering multi-agency training and Sustaining effective exercising to improve responders’ awareness and skills, chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience. preparedness, response and and to validate plans. Information recovery from emergencies Providing the public with information and 100 RC guidance and supporting community resilience to increase emergency preparedness Learning Identifying and utilising learning from incidents to strengthen response and recovery arrangements

8 9 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Contents Page

Part 1: The Resilience Context 12 Our Journey 14 Our Resilience Strategy 18 The Global Risk Landscape 22 Shocks 28 Top Risks in Greater Manchester 34 Stresses 40 Summary and Conclusions 44

Part 2: Resilience Priorities 46 Vision 48 Priority 1 Communities 50 Priority 2 Discovery 56 Priority 3 Leadership 64 Priority 4 Place 68 Priority 5 Responding 74 Summary and Conclusions 80

10 11 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Part The Resilience Context 01

12 13 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Our Journey

experiences, to understand emerging risks and to explore The Sendai The Sustainable new ways of ensuring our cities Framework Development are fit for the future. Urban resilience for Greater Manchester is about our aims to drive a substantial Goals are the blueprint ability to withstand and survive testing events or strains Reducing the risks of disasters reduction of disaster risk to achieve a better and occurring and supporting and associated losses, more sustainable future on the city and to grow and adapt when faced with such communities to respond when whether these are losses in for all. They address the challenges. These challenges can be long-term such as we are faced with them, has lives, livelihoods and health global challenges we face, been an international priority or losses of economic, including those related to deprivation, or come along suddenly, like flooding. We for over 3 decades. Our work physical, social, cultural poverty, inequality, climate know that there are many issues that we need to address supports the delivery of the and environmental assets change, environmental targets outlined in the Sendai of persons, businesses, degradation, peace and and that we will face times of adversity but, if we can work Framework for Disaster Risk communities and countries. justice. The 17 Goals are all Reduction 2015-2030 and the As part of this, stakeholders interconnected, and in order together, think differently, and build on our successes, we Sustainable Development can make voluntary to leave no one behind, it is can become one of the most resilient cities in the world. Goals, both adopted by all commitments to support important that we achieve UN member states. These the implementation of the them all by 2030. international frameworks, framework. https://www.un.org/ alongside national policy, help sustainabledevelopment/ https://www.undrr.org to shape our thinking locally. sustainable-development-goals reater Manchester, just adding complexity to known Glike other places across hazards, community exposure Some terms used when the world, has experienced and vulnerabilities. In Greater talking about resilience are: significant challenges. From Manchester, the notable shocks the plague of 1645 to the we face include: Resilience at all levels Manchester Arena attack in Acute shocks • Natural hazards including 2017, many of the shocks we flooding and, in future, Sudden, sharp events that Internationally Nationally Locally have faced have destroyed heatwaves threaten a city such as lives. Similarly, chronic stresses floods or disease, accidents including deprivation, ageing • Infectious diseases such or terrorist attacks. infrastructure and poor air as Covid-19 and pandemic influenza quality continue to undermine Stresses the fabric of our society and • Infrastructure or technology Issues that weaken the magnify the impacts of the failures fabric of a city often on emergencies we experience. a cyclical basis such as • Those resulting from high unemployment, These challenges are human activity, including crime, poor transportation terrorism exacerbated by the rate and systems or pollution. n 2014 we joined the UNDRR’s Making Cities Resilient programme, joining over 3,000 cities in an intensity of global change The rate and intensity of Resilience Iinternational collaborative effort to reduce disaster risk. More recently we supported the launch of which is forcing us to adapt global change is significantly UNDRR’s Making Cities Resilient 2030. and apply robust approaches increasing the need for us to The capacity of individuals, In 2017 Greater Manchester was invited to become a member of 100 Resilient Cities (now the to resilience to everything we think differently about how we communities, institutions, businesses, and systems Resilient Cities Network), an initiative pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation. The Resilient Cities do. In particular, globalisation, do things. Recognising that within a city to survive, Network brings together cities from across the world that are committed to building and investing in urbanisation, climate change risks and emergencies do adapt, and grow no matter urban resilience. and technological advances not respect city boundaries what kinds of chronic are amplifying the risks we face Greater Manchester continues stresses and acute shocks Partnerships such as these enable the city-region to strengthen our resilience by engaging with at a local, Greater Manchester, to work with other cities across they experience. some of the foremost thinkers and practitioners in urban resilience. They help us to take new level, thereby increasing and the world to learn from their approaches to understanding our resilience and how we might strengthen it. 14 15 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

AUGUST SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER OCTOBER DECEMBER JANUARY 2004 2014 2015 2016

Civil Contingencies Greater Manchester Greater Manchester’s The UK signed a Greater Manchester Community of East Greater Manchester Greater Manchester is Act requires local areas signs up for Mayors ten districts became 15-year international commits to the Salford is recognised signs up to Under awarded Municipality of the Month for to work together to plan, Adapt Covenant. Role Models in the agreement to reduce Compact of Mayors as a Champion 2 Memorandum of prepare and respond to United Nation’s Campaign for Disaster Risk Understanding consistently being a disaster risk. The civil risks through local Greater Manchester Making Cities Resilient Reduction for work in dedicated member of resilience forums gains participant Campaign Sendai Framework “flood risk reduction the UNISDR Making status in the United for Disaster Risk involving youth and Cities Resilient Nations Office Reduction 2015-2030 older persons” campaign for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Making Cities Resilient campaign

2019 2021

Greater Manchester Greater Manchester Greater Manchester Greater Manchester For many years we have treated disaster as a question is welcomed as a undertakes a becomes a signatory joins Making Cities member of the 100 Preliminary to the 1000 Resilient 2030 of ‘if’, rather than a question of ‘when’. There is no more Resilient Cities Resilience Cities Adapt Now network, an initiative Assessment as a programme, aiming excuse for ignorance in our connected and informed pioneered by the key step towards to accelerate climate world. The realization of how exposed cities are to the Rockefeller Foundation publishing a new change adaptation and Resilience Strategy reduce climate risks simultaneous threats of multiple and cascading risk, adds across the world a whole new layer of responsibility and urgency to getting disaster risk governance right in urban settings.

Ms. Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, October 2020

Legislation Join Global Network Award Action 16 17 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Our Resilience Strategy The development of this Resilience Strategy has he first of its kind for interdependence of resilience Tthe city-region, our issues. It encourages Our provided the opportunity to consolidate the learning and Resilience Strategy sets out innovation to address the knowledge developed in recent years. It also brings more our response to resilience changes we will continue to Resilience challenges and opportunities. experience. But, importantly, structure to the resilience-building work which is already At its heart, it points to a it also recognises the Strategy: whole system, whole of resilience journey and the taking place. society approach which learning already undertaken reflects the complexity and in Greater Manchester. • aligns with the Greater he vision for our Resilience Strategy is as follows: Manchester Strategy, T helping to mitigate the Benefits of resilience to our impact of shocks on its city-region outcomes. • supports delivery of the In this changing and complex world, our vision is Living With Covid Plan. to create one of the most resilient places where • has been developed everyone can grow up, get on and age well together. thanks to the efforts of many different people Improve Attract from across Greater our quality of life and investment and maintain Manchester. wellbeing our competitiveness • will be delivered Within the Strategy there are in partnership by 5 core priorities or resilience Communities pillars: 1 agencies working Building cohesive, healthy and across Greater resilient communities Manchester. Foresee and plan Safeguard • provides a framework Discovery for crises that may affect for meeting our the unique characteristics 2 Enhancing resilience communities and thwart the of our city-region duties under the Civil ambitions of our people Contingencies Act. understanding

• runs to 2030 coinciding with the 5 Leadership Sendai Framework and 3 Resilience Shaping resilience within Making Cities Resilient Priorities Greater Manchester Embed Build 2030. resilience as we address on the work of the many • builds on our Preliminary Place physical, economic and collaborations and Risk Assessment social challenges partnerships in the city- and previous civil 4 Being ready for future challenges region to drive innovation contingencies strategies.

• is informed by local and global learning Responding and ideas. 5 Sustaining effective preparedness, • will be accompanied response and recovery from emergencies Encourage by an annual action plan. 18 socioeconomic stability 19 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Quality Delivery Principles

We will continue to debrief following emergencies and to use the learning ach priority is broken down Resilience Strategy and following significant civil identified to improve what we do in the into several key themes that accompanying action plans. emergencies to identify what future. We will continue our partnerships with E Reflective universities and other institutions to learn and are described in part 2 of this is working well and where we Measuring the resilience of our Using past experience to to innovate. We will learn from the experience document. These themes will can improve further inform future decisions of other cities through the city networks of form the basic building blocks on city-region and the success which we are a member. which we will develop our action of this Strategy will involve • continue to engage in multiple approaches. We will: international city-to-city plans to ensure we deliver We will recognise what is best done at a local knowledge transfers, against each priority in support • continue to measure level and where economies of scale give in networks that foster benefit to working at a Greater Manchester of our overall vision. The action progress in addressing learning and in adopting level. We will seek to drive efficiency and plans will provide details of the chronic stresses through maximise benefits by addressing multiple new tools to keep moving timeframe and responsible existing Greater Manchester Resourceful challenges at once. We will continue to forward and to ensure we owners for each action. evaluation frameworks, Recognising alternative collaborate and work in partnership to find do not fall behind ways to use resources new ways of using our collective resources. In part 2 we have also used for example, those already some of our recent and on- in place to measure • continue to use tools school/life readiness, We will continue to use a strong evidence going work to illustrate the types designed to measure base to inform our decisions. We will seek of actions that are likely to be unemployment, health resilience, as well repeat to involve communities in designing new included in our action plan. outcomes, crime rates the use of those approaches and we will work in partnership across public, private, voluntary and • continue to undertake previously applied Outcomes As the Steering Group Robust academic sectors. We will validate emergency plans through exercises. We will ensure we Reduced impact of shocks and regular assessments of Well-conceived, constructed, responsible for ensuring • collect any additional are accountable with effective governance stresses on people, the physical the shocks that Greater and managed systems delivery, the Greater evidence of success, that provides assurance and scrutiny. environment and economy, Manchester may experience Manchester Resilience Forum including through public accelerating recovery and improving quality of life will co-ordinate and oversee • continue to undertake and other stakeholder progress on delivering the debriefs and reviews perceptions and feedback We will continue to assess risks and to use Avoidance of new risks, this information to help to design protective reduction of existing risks processes and infrastructure. We will and effective management promote a proportionate approach to risk that of residual risks Redundant balances appropriate levels of contingency Co-benefits realised on with the investment needed. Spare capacity purposively created investments across sectors to accommodate disruption Our Resilience Strategy is for and stakeholders, in particular benefitting the poorest and most vulnerable.

At no point will we stand still. We will work hard to identify new and emerging risks. We will adapt and evolve in light of new Flexible challenges, opportunities and experiences. Ability to adopt alternative We will continually seek to learn. strategies in response to Everyone Our City-Region Our Civic Leaders changing circumstances By harnessing the strengths of Like many urban areas across This is an opportunity to people across Greater Manchester the world, we are growing. take a close look at what The needs of people will continue to be the including our residents, the Through resilient growth might knock Greater central drivers of our resilience plans. We will voluntary, community and social and recognition of our global Manchester off track in look for new ways to involve people in resilience. We will communicate about risks and actions enterprise sector, businesses, connections, we can build achieving its ambitions and people can take to prepare for emergencies. We academic institutions, and civic resilience to protect our to deliberately invest in Inclusive will continue to warn people about emergencies leaders, we can build resilience wellbeing and our economy to ensuring we can be resilient Prioritise broad consultation and to inform them of the action they should into everything we do. ensure our city-region thrives. in the face of disruption. to create a sense of shared take. We will involve those affected by ownership in decision making emergencies in plans to recover from them.

We will build on our existing collaborative n drawing up this Strategy cities have been working to understand urban resilience approach to make Greater Manchester more Iwe have found that the term understand and to define it. and they will provide the basis resilient. We will continue to engage with ‘urban resilience’ can mean The following 7 qualities of for delivering the outcomes we other cities around the world to draw on Integrated global innovation and creative solutions and different things to different resilience have repeatedly want to achieve by 2030. will also continue to support internationally people and, across the world, assisted our stakeholders to Bring together a range of distinct systems and institutions agreed targets. 20 21 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Urbanisation Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

reater Manchester, like many other urban centres, is an engine of economic growth and a place Gof social opportunity. Looking forward, the population of Greater Manchester is predicted to grow by 10% over the next The Global Risk 20 years. This equates to 190,000 - 240,000 more people living in the city-region which will require around 179,000 new homes by 2037. This growth is also expected to create up to 100,000 new jobs Landscape by 2037 (Greater Manchester Spatial Framework Publication Plan, 2020). Well-designed urban areas can reduce the exposure and vulnerability of people to risk and can help International Risk Amplifiers them to cope when the unexpected occurs. As well as protecting people, good urban design can protect businesses, the economy and people’s livelihoods.

hroughout the world, the If I had to select one sentence to T 21st-century global trends mentioned earlier, such as describe the state of the world, urbanisation, climate change, 10% 179K 100K globalisation, and technological Population growth over New homes New jobs the next 20 year I would say we are in a world development, are being by 2037 in which global challenges are associated with the risk of an extensive and diverse range of more and more integrated, and emergencies, adverse events qually, if potential risks are not addressed they can have and negative outcomes for the responses are more and more significant consequences. As an example, the estimated local people. E fragmented, and if this is not health and social care costs by 2035 of not tackling air pollution Local places have always in England are nearly £5.3 billion (Greater Manchester 5-year reversed, it’s a recipe for disaster. faced shocks and stresses but Environment Plan, 2019). today’s global risk amplifiers We therefore need to build resilience into Greater Manchester’s António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, 2019 are drastically challenging our £5.3 bn plans for the future. Work has already started on this with Health and social care costs understanding of, and ability to resilience considerations included in, for example, the Greater relating to air pollution in respond to, the issues we face. Manchester Spatial Framework and Greater Manchester 5-year England by 2035 unless Environment Plan. action is taken

Cities are like magnets. Just as magnets can either attract or repel, so can cities. A city with a strong magnetic pull draws in new residents, visitors and business investment… The city’s economy grows. Equally, cities can also repel. A city with magnetic push casts off residents and businesses as people pack their bags and move to cities with greater magnetic pull… The city’s economy shrinks.

KPMG, 2015

22 23 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Climate Change UK 2050 Climate change predictions

he Kyoto Protocol and the he consequences of climate 2015 Paris Agreement have +5.6°C change require us to plan for Climate change is the single biggest threat T Summer mean daily maximum temperature T the world faces. driven international efforts to potential emergencies. The UN reduce global warming to 1.5°C +6°C has stated that “90% of recorded GM 5-Year Environment Plan, 2019 above pre-industrial levels. Winter mean precipitation. Warmest day in summer major disasters caused by natural However, current projections hazards from 1995 to 2015 were suggest we will exceed this +4.4% linked to climate and weather Warmest night in summer including floods, storms, heat waves and droughts (UN, 2015)”. target by the late 2030s. The Greater Manchester Combined Authority declared a climate emergency in July 2019 and believes that the impacts of global temperature rise above 1.5°C are so severe that In Greater Manchester climate governments at all levels must work together and make this their top priority. change effects are predicted to include: Greater Manchester recognises it has work to do. As a city-region at the centre of the industrial

revolution, we have been, and continue to be, responsible for significant CO2 emissions, currently • More powerful storms equating to about 3.6% of the UK annual total (Greater Manchester 5-Year Environment Plan, 2019). increasing the risk of In addition to tackling climate change, Greater Manchester is also committed to maximising the +31% severe flooding economic opportunities presented by the move to carbon neutrality. Precipitation in winter • More extreme temperatures +28% increasing the risk of drought Winter mean precipitation in summer and disruption to Impacts of services in winter Climate Change: +9% • Overall non-linear change Annual mean precipitation in hazard intensity and Food Risk to water frequency insecurity supplies Conflict Damage to and climate infrastructure migrants More extreme Changes in the Summary of urgent weather hydrological cycle climate change Forest mortality & Localised risks for the UK Flooding Heatwaves increased Changes flooding in ocean Warmer land The impacts of flooding and By the 2020s summer risk of fires currents and air coastal change in the UK heatwaves, like the one are already significant and experienced in the UK in expected to increase as a result 2003, are expected to Habitable Greenhouses gases, region Warming Flooding of climate change become the norm aerosol emissions, & oceans of pests Global land use change of coastal expands greening regions

Ocean Melting ice acidification Damage Heath stress to marine Diseases Food Nature Rising sea ecosystems The impacts of new and The affordability of food for Climate change presents a levels emerging pests and diseases the UK population is subject to substantial risk to the UK’s native are potentially high for otherwise domestic and international risks wildlife and the vital goods and Change in Fishery failing healthy people, animals and seasonality affecting production and prices services provided by natural Drivers of climate change Loss of plants. The warmer, wetter capital, including food, timber biodiversity Changes to the climate system conditions expected with climate and fibre, clean water, carbon change will allow some pests and storage, and the cultural benefits 24 Impacts diseases to extend their range derived from landscapes 25 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Globalisation Technology

ver the past 200 years reater Manchester has We are now firmly established both as a key Ointernational trade We want our citizens’ lives to be bettered, Gthe ambition to be a top- international gateway to the UK and from the has transformed Greater and for them to be empowered by the myriad five European digital city- Manchester’s economy and region and recognised globally UK to the world. Our long-term vision is to enabled the city-region to forge of opportunities a digitally fuelled city for its innovation. But most become a top 20 global city by 2035. connections with every corner of -region provides. importantly it is committed to the globe. From the construction putting the city-region’s people Greater Manchester Internationalisation Report, 2017 of the Ship Canal and the world’s Greater Manchester Internationalisation Report, 2017 at the heart of its plans. first inland port in the 19th

century to the development of Manchester Airport, which is one of the largest airports in Europe, Technological development can enable our citizen's lives to be bettered, to improve public services connection to international markets has been at the core of Greater Manchester’s economic strategy. and help drive economic activity. However new technology pulls together the various networks that constitute modern life and fuses them into a complex ‘system of systems’, in which risks become In embracing the opportunities of globalisation, we must do so in ways that promote resilience. Risks difficult to identify and even more difficult to measure. can now operate across borders. Perpetrators of cybercrime are often located many thousands of miles away from those that they target, the interconnectivity that globalisation brings can enable We can point to relatively isolated technological risks such as the risk of a cyberattack interrupting infectious diseases to spread quickly, and international terrorism can have devastating impacts in our business operations seen when the WannaCry ransomware attack led to disruption in one-third of local communities.Through our resilience work we are seeking to understand current and emerging hospital trusts in England (National Audit Office, 2018). But in an increasingly interconnected world, global risks, to develop approaches to help to prevent local impacts and protect communities, to assist the consequences can be much greater. Consider, for example, the immediate cascading impact of people in staying safe and to work as part of a global community intent on reducing disaster risk. a cyberattack that knocks out a provider of critical infrastructure.

GM Digital Blueprint, Measuring Impact 3 Year Headline Aims

3rd hub £5.36bn most popular UK city for of a new high-speed worth to Greater international visits rail network for the UK Manchester of international trade of goods Digital skills Digital speed Employment Economic Growth ambition is to increase the By 2023, the average and skills in Digital and £5bn Creative Digital and number of adults who have download speed across Creative industries 86k Tech economy growing to all 5 basic digital skills to fibre, cable, mobile and people employed 2019 £5.5bn by 2025, and 80% from 78% over the wireless will exceed 100Mps growing to 96k in 2023 £7bn by 2029 next 3 years vs Q4 2017 32Mps The 21st century has already been marked by major epidemics.

Old diseases - cholera, plague and yellow fever - have returned, And the changes in technology that impact our resilience are not limited to the digital sector. For and new ones have emerged - SARS, pandemic influenza, example, diesel cars have helped contribute to worsening air quality, despite the initial promise of cutting carbon dioxide emissions. However, improvements in technology have enabled electric MERS, Ebola, Zika and Coronavirus. Another Ebola epidemic, vehicles to be more affordable and commonplace, providing an opportunity to radically improve the another plague epidemic or a new influenza pandemic are air we breathe. This demonstrates the potential value new technology can bring to our most pressing resilience challenges, whilst also showing the possibility for unintended consequences. not mere probabilities, the threat is real. Diseases all have the To be resilient we need to embrace the role new technology can play in improving lives, whilst also potential to spread internationally highlighting the importance ensuring that we try to understand any associated risks. In the face of uncertainty, we must ensure of immediate and coordinated response. that our plans are flexible and adaptable to meet the needs of a rapidly changing future.

World Health Organisation, 2018 26 27 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Shocks

he previous section Texplored how risks across The Greater Manchester • Establishes the world can impact us Resilience Forum, arrangements to warn within Greater Manchester. established in 2005, and inform the public However, strengthening our brings over 80 public, in times of emergency local resilience requires us private, voluntary and to try to understand to which academic organisations The Greater Manchester risks we are susceptible locally together in a multi-agency Resilience Forum operates – shocks – together with any partnership that focuses within a network of other factors that may exacerbate on coordinating activity partnerships across the impact of these risks to prepare for shocks and Greater Manchester. Some and, potentially, worsen the emergencies. This is part support its core functions consequences such as poverty of a national approach to around civil risks, such as or inequalities – stresses. A emergencies that enables the GM Contest Board, sudden shock can expose our national government and whilst other groups within chronic stresses whilst existing local communities to work Greater Manchester stresses often increase the together in times of crisis. respond to issues that can impact of that shock and the cause stresses. fallout from it. In particular, the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum:

• Assesses the risks Shocks Greater Manchester The causes of emergencies may face, publishing Local Resilience and how they impact a Community Risk Register Forums have a the city-region and its key role for their communities are complex • Plans for emergencies and cross-cutting. They and encourages communities in can cross administrative organisations to plan the response and boundaries, require action by for business continuity recovery from many different organisations management, through emergencies. and touch individual lives training and exercising in diverse ways. JESIP website, 2021

28 29 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Timeline of shocks

1930’S 1940-41 1967 1981 1996 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 GREAT MANCHESTER STOCKPORT MOSS SIDE IRA BOMB BOXING DAY MANCHESTER MOORLAND WHALEY BRIDGE COVID-19 DEPRESSION BLITZ AIR DISASTER RIOTS FLOODS ARENA ATTACK WILDFIRES DAM FAILURE PANDEMIC

During this The blitz came On 4 June, a In July, the inner- The IRA detonated 63 communities On 22nd May, at In June 2018 In August 2019 At the time period textile to Manchester passenger aircraft city district of a lorry bomb on experienced 22:31, a suicide a widespread the spillway of writing the manufacturing, Effects and impact and Salford on crashed in a Moss Side in Corporation Street flooding with bomber detonated fire broke out at Toddbrook response to Greater 22-24 December small open area Manchester in the centre of internal flooding an improvised on Saddleworth Reservoir was Covid-19 is still Manchester’s 1940 and was the near the centre was the scene Manchester. The to around 2,250 explosive device Moor covering damaged in heavy ongoing. The traditional staple heaviest targeted of Stockport. Of of rioting. Key biggest bomb properties in the foyer area over 2,000 rainfall leading to impacts have industry, went into detonated in across Greater acres, burning the evacuation been felt across steep decline. bombing on the 84 people on underlying factors of the Manchester civilians until that board, 72 were were racial Great Britain since Manchester after Arena. 22 people through peat and of more than all sectors of point in history. killed, while all 12 tension and mass World War II it 128mm rain fell in including children destroying natural 1,500 people society, including During bombings survivors were unemployment targeted the city’s a 36 hour period. were killed and habitats. in Derbyshire health, the over Manchester seriously injured. brought on by infrastructure and over 500 people and threatening economy, and over 650 people the early 1980s economy. were physically homes in Greater wider society. were killed and 50k recession. injured. Manchester. homes damaged.

Following the de- Following the This disaster The aftermath of The response to The flooding Greater The wildfires The Toddbrook A One Year industrialisation Manchester Blitz drove significant the disturbances the bombing has highlighted the Manchester renewed interest in Reservoir is being Living with Covid of the 1970’s, 80s the ambitious City improvements in led to a range of been credited with important role commissioned the role the natural restored so it Resilience Plan has and 90s, Greater of Manchester air safety. In 1998, new approaches starting the city’s of community reviews of the environment plays can continue to been published Manchester Plan of 1945 was a memorial plaque including to regenerationand resilience in preparedness for in keeping Greater supply water to outlining how diversified its prepared, helping was unveiled by monitoring transforming responding and and response to Manchester safe, the Peak Forest Greater Manchester economic base regenerate large two survivors community Manchester into recovering from the Manchester particularly the and Macclesfield will respond and now the parts of the city at the scene of tensions and to a modern British emergencies. Arena Attack and importance of our canals. Greater to the impact service sector, centre, however the accident, strengthening “powerhouse” into preventing peat bogs. Manchester is Covid-19 has had creative and also creating with second and community city with above hateful extremism updating its plans on people’s lives digital industries, unintended third memorials cohesion. national average and promoting to reflect the and businesses. higher education, additional issues unveiled in 2002 economic growth community learning identified This is informing health, retail and such as the and 2017 - the in the 20 years cohesion. A Public following the the current update construction all development of the 50th anniversary following. Inquiry started in emergency. of the loner-term contribute to Hulme Crescents. of the crash. September 2020. Greater Manchester

Lessons learned and Greater Manchester’s response Manchester’s Greater and Lessons learned economy. Strategy. Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Cold and snow Reservoir collapse An emergency [shock] is defined in the Civil Contingencies

Electricity Act 2004 as ‘an event or situation which threatens serious Heat wave transmission failure damage to human welfare, an event or situation which

AIRPORT threatens serious damage to the environment, and war, or terrorism, which threatens serious damage to the security of the UK’. INDUSTRIAL SITES

HM Government, 2004

Reservoir or Pandemic Flooding Greater Manchester’s Community dam failure flu HOMES/COMMUNITIES Aircraft Widespread Risk Register collision power failure River Severe cold flooding weather Pandemic flu Moorland fires Hazardous Fire at fuel liquids site supply incident installation Gas/chemical Incident at pipeline incident LPG storage Hazardous Extreme hot goods incident weather Release of toxic Flash Shocks he Greater Manchester foreseeable consequences, chemicals flooding TResilience Forum assesses together with the capabilities Industrial Surface over 100 civil risks as part of a available to respond should a action flooding rolling programme. Using a particular type of emergency Poor air Space national framework, we assess occur. The risks can be quality weather the likelihood, severity and grouped as: Contaminated New infectous food disease Landslip Earthquake

Ship collision Release of bio pathogen from laboratories Fire in fuel Wildfire pipeline Explosion at Severe storm Natural hazards Infrastructure gas terminal and gales Failure of bank Vulcanic ash including diseases ITC system or system failures impact Relative Public disorder Fuel supplier insolvency Release of Surface legionella or flooding similar bio agent Ship blockade Radiation from Accidents Terrorism stolen goods Loss of piped White powder including those leading or those due to water supply incident malicious acts Draught Loss of BT to exposure to hazardous telecoms network materials Influx of British Relative likelihood nationals 32 33 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Top Risks in Greater Manchester

evere cold and snow districts in Greater Manchester xpert modelling shows we patterns and, in 2021, high Severe winter Sdisrupt communities and face these risks, particularly in Flooding E may experience flooding rainfall illustrated how existing bring risks to health, putting the northern and eastern areas from short, intense storms, flood defences may be over- weather pressure on our urgent care over the moors and Pennines. seen in areas of Stockport topped in future. Both river systems during the winter. All in summer 2016, as well and surface water flooding can as periods of continuous, pose a serious risk to life and prolonged rain, such as that property, as well as bringing a experienced in Storm Eva risk of infrastructure failure and in 2015 Climate change is loss of essential services. In Greater Manchester there were 2,170 additional deaths predicted to change rainfall in 2014/15 and 980 additional deaths in 2015/16 during periods of cold weather. 40% suffered from heart attack or stroke and 30% had respiratory illness. Risk to Greater Manchester Economic Cost ONS, 2015

55k 36% The economic costs of properties are at risk of critical infrastructure the 2015 to 2016 winter of fluvial flooding is at risk of flooding floods in England were estimated to be £1.6 billion (Environment Agency, 2018). £28k is the average insurance cost for flood damaged properties 34 35 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Summary of the Boxing Day floods 2015 in Greater Manchester in numbers

70-100mm rain fell in 24hours or many years public health Infectious Fexperts have highlighted Antibiotic disease the risks of infectious disease pandemics, particularly of an Resistance influenza pandemic such as the 1918 Spanish flu. 10 million The work preparing for an failing to tackle antimicrobial influenza pandemic helped resistance could result in £150k Metrolink 37 of 44 £11.5m 6 Compared to other inform the initial stages of the donated from disruption river gauges recorded in infrastructure electricity 10 million deaths every year Forever Manchester their highest ever levels damage substations areas in England, response to Covid-19. globally by 2050 damaged Greater Manchester Although not the influenza has been particularly virus, SARS-CoV-2 has caused 30 years affected by Covid-19. widespread infections. In it has been 30 years since a addition to the associated new class of antibiotics was The impact has morbidity and mortality, it has last introduced been unequal and impacted all areas of society unfair, highlighting including the education of children and young people, 1 in 5 2,454 4,000 £11.4m 1 31,2k and deepening the people expect antibiotics livelihoods and the economy, properties were structures have has been made Grade II properties when they visit their doctor protected by been inspected available for home listed building left without inequalities that have together with social norms raised flood since the flood flood protection destroyed power existed for many and population mental health. PHE, 2015 defences years and which we Recovery from the pandemic have been working will be a priority for years to come. 2,011 to change. from rivers However, health risks are not Public Health England, 2018 limited to known and emerging infectious With more infections 211 becoming resistant to 2,250 from surface 500 diseases. Antimicrobial properties flooded waters businesses flooded resistance, with the rapid today’s medicines we spread of increasing numbers must step up our fight 25 of drug-resistant pathogens, against antimicrobial from sewers threatens our ability to treat common infections both now resistance which is and in the future. Tackling one of the most serious Flood risk investment programme 2021-2027 antimicrobial resistance is one health threats we face. of the key resilience challenges we must all deal with and sooner rather than later. Professor Kate Ardern, GM DPH lead for civil contingencies 61 9,750 £102m £40m projects identified homes better protected grant in aid funding allocation partnership funding required 36 37 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

he UK has robust regulatory cause widespread damage s with the rest of the groups of varying backgrounds. Accidents Tand inspection regimes if breached, or release of Malicious AUK, Greater Manchester Online radicalisation is a designed to keep people safe radiation. Greater Manchester continues to face a serious serious problem and allows including from risks that could have high is a complex urban area with activity and sustained threat from international groups to recruit those leading consequences to people, the a long industrial heritage and including terrorism, including from from inside western countries. environment or the economy plans are maintained in case international groups and Many of the networks and to exposure but that are unlikely to happen. of accidents or emergencies terrorism domestic extremists. The UK individuals who pose a terrorist Examples include industrial involving higher risk sites. threat level sets out the broad threat seek to cause physical to hazardous processes that use hazardous indication of the likelihood of a harm as well as fear and harm materials materials, infrastructure terrorist attack. to social cohesion. such as reservoir dams or major pipelines that could Potential terrorists include a wide variety of individuals and

ower outages have consequences of losing Attacks on Attacks on Failure of crowded transport Pthe potential to cause power supplies include poor place significant disruption sanitation and loss of drinking national Attacks on Cyber attacks on including impacts on essential water; limited availability of infrastructure infrastructure electricity services such as hospitals, telecommunications, TV, radio Cyber Larger-sale transport systems, mobile or internet services; financial attacks on chemical, infrastructure communications, heating transactions being limited due services biological, radiological systems and electronic trading to cash machines and payment Smaller-scale or nuclear chemical, attacks systems. For example, our cards not working; together with biological, transport infrastructure (traffic risks to vulnerable people who radiological or nuclear signals, rail and Metrolink have a greater dependency on attacks services) is heavily reliant on essential services. electricity to function. Other Impact severity

Relative plausibility of occurring in the next 5 years National Risk Register, 2017

The matrix above illustrates the this horrific event, the Mayor recommendations for tackling different types of terrorist threat commissioned two pieces of and confronting hateful across the UK and Greater work. Firstly, an Independent extremism in all its forms and Manchester, including the Review which has made a from wherever it emanates. plausibility and impact based on series of recommendations An independent public inquiry national and local assessment. in relation to the nine-day into the Manchester Arena response which took place attack was commissioned by Tragically, Greater Manchester after the attack. Secondly, the the Home Secretary on 22 was subject to a cowardly Preventing Hateful Extremism October 2019. terrorist attack in 2017 at the and Promoting Social Cohesion Manchester Arena. Following Commission which has made 38 39 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Stresses

hen partners on the alone. With myriad connections its own weight in water and, WGreater Manchester across the city-region, shocks when in good health, can act Resilience Forum assess risks, are easily compounded, as huge sponge helping to part of the process includes resulting in multiple adverse protect Greater Manchester considering the consequences. impacts, cascading failure of from flooding. In addition, this Many different shocks and systems and functions, and plant is essential in building emergencies can result in differential outcomes between the peat that lies beneath similar outcomes such as communities due to existing it, which itself is the biggest injuries or death, temporary or vulnerabilities. store of atmospheric carbon permanent loss of homes and in the UK. The moss and peat the need for shelter, financial The wildfires experienced across together also help to filter our disruption to personal incomes the northern fringes of Greater drinking water. or the broader economy Manchester in 2018 provide a including through loss of good example of the complex So, when a shock event like businesses and livelihoods, interaction between shocks and a wildfire occurs on this environmental damage or stresses. The chronic stress of landscape, we can lose the damage to infrastructure and pollution caused by the industrial resilience benefits of flood services that are essential to revolution in the 18th and 19th protection and carbon storage day-to-day life. centuries severely degraded that peat offers whilst, at the surrounding moorlands, the same time, releasing However, underlying pre-existing killing off protective flora and carbon into the atmosphere, urban problems [stresses] can exposing bare peat. exacerbating climate change make such consequences worse and, in turn, making these and we know that the impacts The moorland flora, especially shock events even more likely. experienced during shocks are a small plant called sphagnum rarely the result of the shock moss, can hold 20 times

Resilient he Boxing Day floods in 2015 demonstrated how acute shocks can amplify pre-existing chronic Tstresses with flooding disproportionately affecting those in more deprived areas. Conversely Moorlands Facilities civil disruption experienced in 2001 and 2011 was arguably a response to stresses including social Spoiling recreational tensions and a lack of social cohesion. Fires and leisure facilities So, whilst Greater Manchester can be proud of its successes, the fabric of its society has vulnerabilities Increasing the risk that can exacerbate the impact of acute shocks, as well as causing a daily strain on the quality of of moorland fire people’s lives. Of course, these chronic stresses are not new or unique to Greater Manchester. Pollution Acid rain The very existence of public services is driven by a recognition of the broad range of needs, including The textile industry This pollution fell on the Carbon of Greater Manchester moorlands as acid rain and Releasing carbon social, environmental and economic, that need to be met for people to live happy, healthy lives. And created damaging degraded the top layer into the atmosphere the Greater Manchester Strategy and its accompanying policies sets out the city-region’s ambitions atmospheric pollution for tackling many of these issues. Flooding Increasing the risk of flooding Wildlife 40 Damaging wildlife and 41 important ecosystems Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy he figure below summarises some of our most significant current challenges that can be Tassociated with existing or potential chronic stresses for the city-region.

£1.85bn 78.1 years 81.7 years gap between public spend life expectancy - below life expectancy.– below and tax income in 2017/18 England average of 79.8 England average of 83.4

2.84m 70.2k 11,583 population - growth of 196,000 unemployed in 2019 net additional new dwellings in last decade in 2018/19

459k 27,204 12,000 aged +65 - growth of nearly 16-24 years olds unemployed children not achieving 78k in last 25 years in January 2021 - 14,230 higher expected early years foundation than January 2020 stage goals (2019)

77 NO2 4th rough sleepers levels in Greater Manchester in most deprived Local Enterprise in January 2021 breach of legal limits Partnership in England

1 in 4 £4.4M 6th residents will be over 60 investment received by most deprived Local by 2040 and more than 1 in 6 Manchester University NHS Enterprise Partnership in will be over 70 Foundation Trust in 2019 to England for income deprivation fight antimicrobial resistance affecting children 42 43 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Summary and Conclusions

The Rockefeller Foundation’s former President, Judith Rodin, described what resilience means to modern cities in her book, The Resilience Dividend, writing that resilience is,

“The capacity of any entity... to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stresses and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience’. Ideally, it is able to take advantage of new opportunities in good times or bad and to thereby realise a resilience dividend – it is not just about returning to normal, as important as that is, but it is also about yielding benefits.”

Rodin, 2015

Greater Manchester has a long history of resilience. For decades, our many agencies have collaborated to assess risks, prepared for emergencies and worked together to address the stresses we face. This is in addition to learning from the shocks we and other cities across the world have had to deal with.

However, the challenges we have experienced and overcome before are not necessarily the same as those we face today. The 21st century brings new risks such as climate change and antimicrobial resistance, together with the capacity for risks to have multiple and unexpected consequences due to globalisation and the interconnectivity of societies across the world.

Our ability to respond to, and recover from, acute shocks and civil emergencies is well tested. We have been working hard to contribute to international thinking and emerging approaches to enhance resilience for Greater Manchester, the UK and worldwide. This is something we will build on if we are to realise our resilience vision.

We are a UN role model for disaster risk reduction and a member of the Resilient Cities Network. We also seek to influence national government to adopt approaches that will support Greater Manchester’s resilience. Our inputs are not based simply on the work we have done to date, they acknowledge our understanding of the need to do more - maintaining resilience requires us to continually learn, reflect, anticipate and adapt to take account of constant change.

Our resilience is our ability to survive and thrive regardless of the challenges we face. Resilience is a key enabler of the Greater Manchester Strategy, helping to improve the quality of life for all. The Greater Manchester Strategy is also a key enabler of resilience, as its aims are driven by the challenges we face. 44 45 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Part Resilience Priorities 02

46 47 Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Place

Vision: 5.1.• Assessing the risk of civil emergencies In this changing and complex world, our vision is to create one of the most through multi-agency collaboration

resilient places where everyone can grow up, get on and age well together 4. 5.2.• Developing plans and capabilities to enable Being ready for future effective response and recovery following challenges emergencies 5.3.• Designing and delivering multi-agency training and exercising to improve 4.1.• Using a resilience lens to responders’ awareness and skills, and to enhance our economy validate plans

4.2.• Ensuring a resilient built 5.4.• Providing the public with information environment – planning for and guidance and supporting community resilient urban growth resilience to increase emergency preparedness 4.3.• Protecting and promoting the resilience value of the natural 5.5.• Identifying and using learning from environment incidents to strengthen response and recovery arrangements 4.4.• Leveraging funding to make us Communities more resilient. Leadership 5. 1. Sustaining effective preparedness, response and recovery from emergencies Building cohesive, healthy and resilient communities 2.1.• Understanding hazards and vulnerability in Greater 3. 1.1. Enhancing the capacity of Manchester, including by Shaping resilience within communities to deal with identifying emerging and Greater Manchester emergencies and mobilising interdependent risk community participation in Responding response and recovery 2.2.• Measuring resilience through 3.1.• Building on the governance the use of metrics and structures and partnership working of the Greater 1.2. Dealing with hateful extremism baseline assessments Manchester Resilience Forum through social cohesion 2.3.• Developing new ideas to to co-ordinate and drive resilience building activities. 1.3. Finding ways to increase address risk and achieve community resilience, resilience dividends, including 3.2.• Shaping and influencing including by supporting by drawing on academic resilience agendas across intergenerational engagement expertise Our priorities Sendai framework priorities Greater Manchester, nationally and internationally to make 1.4. Working with the voluntary 2.4.• Understanding and them relevant and supportive and faith sectors at the addressing the emerging to Greater Manchester 1 Communities Understanding disaster risk local and national level to challenges and opportunities communities. maximise the capacity to of new technologies support communities 3.3.• Ensuring that the delivery Discovery Strengthening governance of the Resilience Strategy 2 represents value for money 2. and improves outcomes for people in Greater Manchester. Enhancing resilience 3 Leadership Investing in disaster risk reduction understanding for resilience 4 Place Enhancing disaster Discovery preparedness 48 5 Responding 49 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

VCSE organisations are an integral Themes: part of thriving communities, and are a way for local people to deliver solutions to problems or ambitions that they have identified. They offer activities, which if amplified, developed and embedded as part Mobilising of support and services for people Enhancing the capacity of communities to deal with emergencies and mobilising and communities, could really community participation in response and recovery make a difference for Greater Manchester.

Greater Manchester VCSE Leadership Group, 2020

Cohesion Dealing with hateful extremism through social cohesion

People are the heart of our city-region so we put them at the heart of all of our plans – driving Resilience our ambition and shaping our Finding ways to increase community approach to delivery. resilience, including by supporting intergenerational engagement

esilient cities are created by the communities Rwho live and work in them and the people of Support Greater Manchester have the power and potential Priority 1 Working with the voluntary and faith to create strong, safe and resilient places for sectors at the local and national level to everyone. A resilient community is characterised maximise the capacity to support communities by minimal exposure to disaster risk, together Communities with fewer urban stresses, and therefore a lower vulnerability and a greater coping capacity when Building cohesive, healthy and resilient communities shocks do occur. 50 51 GreaterGreater Manchester Manchester | |Resilience Resilient Strategy Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy e want to equip individuals Preparedness Response Wand communities with the Examples of our work knowledge and ability to withstand • Communications and events • Local monitoring and two way information flow with responders and even thrive in the face of the to build cohesive networks and and with the wider public shocks and stresses they face. We 1. Enhancing the capacity of raise community awareness on want them to be empowered and communities to deal with emergencies a peer-to-peer basis • Effective decision making to trigger community emergency plans engaged. and mobilising community • Personal, business and • Coordinating with responders and coordinating spontaneous This ambition is far from new in community plans, which volunteers are exercised Greater Manchester – it is made participation in response and recovery explicit through our principles for In the immediate aftermath of the Manchester Arena attack • Ongoing assessment of public service reform and is being vulnerability, capacity in May 2017, a Community Recovery Group was established and assets addressed throughout many areas alongside a Commission to consider any learning concerning of public policy. Support from government, community cohesion and integration. The work of the • Systems for local monitoring Category 1 and 2 responders, The Greater Manchester Strategy Community Recovery Group, now meeting as ‘A Shared of risk and early warning voluntary and private organisations Recovery highlights the need to take a Future’, has evolved with the implementation of positive • Training • Coordinating with responders proactive approach to create new actions in four priority areas: and informing responder plans • Resources • Identifying community recovery partnerships and encouraging 1. Consistent tensions monitoring processes across needs and capacity, and more diverse voices across • Insurance for those at risk • Facilitation Greater Manchester (business, homeowners, matching these to the available Greater Manchester to have community and agency support tenants) • Service integration an active role in shaping and 2. Greater Manchester-wide roll out of “holding difficult conversations” training • Funding/in kind • Raising awareness of the challenging policy. available support and schemes 3. Greater Manchester approach to Countering “Narratives” • Recovering in a resilient way to reflect the new normal 4. Community engagement principles Mitigation/Protection • Evaluate activities and learn lessons 2. Dealing with hateful extremism • Deploying and maintaining barriers and buffers in the built and through social cohesion natural environment Building on Boston’s work in addressing deep-rooted • Working with health programmes, behaviour change and There is something issues of racial disparity and systemic inequity through its awareness raising resilience-building efforts, Chief Resilience Officers and city happening out there representatives from Greater Manchester and seven other that is polarising cities in the United States and Canada had the opportunity to people and that makes collaborate with Boston officials and other partners to share it a very challenging practices and tactics local leaders can use to promote racial equity outcomes across city systems and in the delivery of world for us all to core services. live in. If we are to be This collaboration identified the following key principles: that strong, united and cohesive Greater • Open and courageous leadership is critical to tackling the stress of structural racism in cities Manchester that we Communities have a role to play in all aspects of the are today, then all of • Cities need to rely on their existing and diverse array of levers to build racial equity and resilience emergency planning cycle. The graphic above gives some society needs to take examples of activities communities might be involved to some responsibility. • Communities must be co-creators in solutions to forge new paths to equitable and resilient cities prepare, respond, recover or prevent a shock / emergency. It’s about everyone Source: Cabinet Office playing their part. • Cities must focus on systems and institutions, as well as people and communities

Mayor of Greater Manchester • Data and impact measurement are critical but must look beyond numbers to tell the whole story

52 53 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy GreaterGreater Manchester Manchester | |Resilience Resilient Strategy Strategy 3.Finding ways to increase community resilience, including by supporting intergenerational engagement People across Greater Manchester give their Building community resilience cannot take place without the participation of communities themselves in the design and time freely to help the delivery of resilience-building programmes. Recognising others and make the this, Ambition for Ageing have researched how marginalized world a better place. older people cope with emergencies and have developed recommendations for how we can encourage and enable Volunteering can community participation in planning for emergencies. just be for a one-off event, a few days, or Following the publication of the report ‘Resilience in an Ageing Greater Manchester’, which has been recognised by the UN as maybe a longer term international good practice, the Greater Manchester Resilience commitment. Every Unit worked with a local primary school and a church group in offer of support is Bolton to pilot an intergenerational project called ‘Take Care’. This project was designed to: needed and welcomed.

• Enable older people to pass on their experience and GMCA learning to younger residents

• Help younger people cope with emergencies

• Decrease the levels of social isolation through intergenerational dialogue

4. Working with the voluntary and faith sectors at the local and national level to maximise the capacity to support communities During the Covid-19 pandemic, Greater Manchester’s Voluntary Community and Social Enterprise infrastructure, which includes organisations such as Action Together (Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside), Salford CVS and MACC, continue to be an integral part of the locality-led community response. They are embedded in community hubs and volunteering structures, supporting activities that include the vaccination programme as well as the humanitarian response. National charities such as the British Red Cross have worked closely with local organisations and are offering specific support such as the British Red Cross Hardship Fund.

54 55 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Themes: Unacknowledged, unaddressed and unknown risk sits at the heart of the global threat to sustainable development.

UN Global Assessment of Risk, 2019 Risk Understanding hazards and vulnerability in Greater Manchester, including by identifying emerging and interdependent risk

basic foundation for building resilience is Measuring Aunderstanding risk, including the potential for Measuring resilience through the use of shocks and stresses. metrics and baseline assessments The Sendai Framework breaks down risk into the dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which are mitigated by coping capacity. Reducing existing risk and preventing the creation of new risk requires us to address all dimensions.

Disaster risk management should be based on an understanding Many of the risks relevant to Greater Manchester of disaster risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, are well known, largely due to the issues we have exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the already experienced, such as flooding, terrorism, Innovation poor health outcomes and homelessness. environment. Such knowledge can be used for risk assessment, Developing new ideas to address risk and However, the risk we know is not necessarily the achieve resilience dividends, including by risk we face, and we must be prepared to address prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response. drawing on academic expertise gaps in our knowledge.

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015 In addition, accepting that today’s risk is not necessarily the reality of tomorrow is also crucial to the mindset we need to have. This mindset is about maintaining a grasp on the issues that emerge and evolve before us, against the challenging context of a rapidly changing world. Opportunity Whilst anticipation and flexibility are key to our Priority 2 ability to respond to new or evolving risk, we must Understanding and addressing the emerging challenges and opportunities also prioritise efforts to prevent the creation of of new technologies new risk, paying particular attention to the role of Discovery human activity in increasing exposure and adding complexity. This requires everyone to consider the Enhancing resilience understanding impact of their actions, regardless of their pursuit. 56 57 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Understanding risk involves Examples of our work

No risk assessment will ever be able to 1. Understanding hazards and identify and assess vulnerability in Greater Manchester, every possible risk - including by identifying emerging and Knowledge Identifying Tracking unforseeable risks can interdependent risk building and maintaining and understanding new and the changing dynamics of risk emerge, or previously In Greater Manchester organisations have been working knowledge of potential shocks emerging risk, such as anti- and understanding how risk identified risks can together for over a decade to assess the risk of acute shocks and chronic stresses which microbial resistance and evolving alters over time that communities may face. The process involves drawing on could affect the city-region climate change scenarios materialise in novel or surprising ways expertise and knowledge at both a local and national level. The European Climate Risk Typology created by researchers at the University of Manchester is an example of such collaboration. HM Government, National Risk Register, 2020 edition Freely available through an interactive online portal (www. european-crt.org) the typology includes:

• Interactive maps showing groups of European cities and Exposure Vulnerabilities Capacity regions that share similar climate risk characteristics. understanding levels of understanding vulnerabilities of understanding the capacity • Information on a wide range of climate risk indicators exposure to hazards, threats people, place and the economy of our people, place and supported by maps, charts and diagrams. and stresses economy to withstand shocks and stresses • Use cases to provide insights into how the typology can be applied to inform adaptation planning and action.

The map below shows European cities and regions that share Greater Manchester’s climate risk type - North West Urban. They are predominantly inland, urbanised, have relatively low hazard exposure compared to other European cities and regions, are projected to experience increases in Applying Identifying very heavy rainfall and have GDP and employment prospects multi-hazard thinking to interdependencies between all that are above the European average. European cities and understand accumulative risk aspects of society and how they regions sharing Greater Manchester’s climate risk type. could potentially exacerbate risk

Resilience is about the ability to continue to function effectively in the face of future challenges. The requirements to achieve it change over time, as challenges alter. This means that thinking about resilience encourages a dynamic and holistic approach, one that looks at the system as a whole over time and the service that it delivers, rather than focussing on the risks to individual assets ... a truly resilient system is also able to respond effectively to as yet unknown, or difficult to predict challenges.

National Infrastructure Commission, 2019

58 59 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

2. Measuring resilience through the use Resilience assessment tools Resilience assessment tools indicate indicate the emergency response that Greater Manchester’s health of metrics and baseline assessments structure is robust and that, systems are robust and deliver A city is a system of against global benchmarks, a quality healthcare. Against global We have used several tools developed through the Making comprehensive structure exists for benchmarks there is limited human Cities Resilient programme and 100 Resilient Cities network systems, with each of the delivery of integrated planning. vulnerability due to lack of sanitation, to measure our resilience and to give us a baseline from which food and housing provision. those systems (e.g. However, self-assessments to measure changes. These include the Disaster Resilience communications, suggest community preparedness However, the assessments have Scorecard for Cities (UNDRR) and City Resilience Index (100 and resilience awareness could be suggested that there is room for Resilient Cities). As the world about us shifts and changes, water, sanitation, improved and that, against global improvement in relation to inclusive so our resilience may alter, and these tools help us to assess benchmarks, there is a potential labour policies and that, against energy, healthcare, shortage of data on stakeholder global benchmarks, average pay where best to target our efforts. welfare, law and engagement and consultation. compares poorly. Within the UK, in addition to the national framework for order, education, rm & 1 Meets ngte basi rs lo c ne developing Community Risk Registers, the Cabinet Office ste ning ed businesses, social Fo plan s 12 ted has developed a set of Resilience Standards against which gra nte e i and neighbourhood g 2 Greater Manchester assesses its work. The Cabinet Office n S ra up d p a o o s & r also conducts a biennial national survey of the capabilities systems) potentially r r e t b e y H m l a ld g e iv o e a p e available to respond to emergencies. rs h t l lo li e e a th y h having separate k tr m o w a S & o o t e d p s W n s f & t m e We have contributed to other tools to help measure and better owners and o ip E l 1 h lb 1 s e r quantify approaches to resilience. These include: e i stakeholders. n d g

a

& e

t L Resilience needs p • Contribution to the BS67000, the British Standard for i n 3 h h e e E s r m a n City Resilience (2019) released by the British Standards e e l s consideration within t

u d g h r a a s e Institute (BSI) and intended for use by all stakeholders e n

l e p a and across each r e u v t m i b who contribute to city resilience, whether from the private, c o e l e i v c m i s

of these systems t o

public or third sector as applied across communities, r c

P e

f

f

0

governance, the environment and infrastructure. 1 and therefore can e

e

y

only be achieved

t

n

i

• Piloting new tools for measuring resilience, such as the

4 l

g

i

a

P

b

g

o

r

Smart Mature Resilience toolkit designed through a European e

through effective

l

o e

m

b m d

a

&

i c o

funded project to assist cities in building their resilience. l

o

t

n e

collaboration.

e

m r

o

i

c

s

t

m

o

e a

h u

d

c

i

• Tools to explore specific resilience themes such as the City i

e

n

v

n

s i

t

t

o

u

i

i

r v

n

Disaster Resilience Scorecard e

Water Resilience Approach (CWRA) which helps cities plan e

P

m

e s

&

9

m

E

m

for Cities, UNDRR o

c

n

and implement actions to build resilient urban water systems. c

o

o

r

n

i

o

v

s

m n

5 e

E

c

y

E

u

s

n

& &

r

f

e

s i

o t

e

c

u

S

y i

r

y

r

v

o

& u t

e

r

i

t

c

e

j u

s c

i

u

s

e

o n

u

s l

i

t

r

c

t

t

y a

t

i

i

n s c

c

a

i

a o

e t

l

r i

c

f

r

s

n

c t

I e

a

r

b

u

i

s

l

i

n

t

y E

s

t ,

e

8

s

s

a

e p

d r

o

a e

s

v m

p

i

n

t e

a

r

c

i m 6

t

y &

e

l

a t

F r u

t

a o

n

o

r

s p

t

e s

e r

s

c

n

e

a

c

h o

n

n

e

o

m &

n i i c a t n i a M

7

Resilience assessment tools Resilience assessment tools indicate Greater Manchester has indicate that Greater Manchester effective provisions in place for has a diverse, productive and critical services and infrastructure. stable local economy. Against Against global benchmarks, there global benchmarks Greater is effective provision of services Manchester has a strong citywide such as energy, water and health. identity and culture.

However, these assessments However, these assessments suggest that effective stewardship suggest that further work is of ecosystems could be improved needed to create truly cohesive and that, against global benchmarks, communities across all boroughs the data Greater Manchester holds and that citizen engagement could on ecosystems and infrastructure be improved. needs to be reviewed. 60 61 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy 3. Developing new ideas to address risk and achieve resilience dividends, including by drawing on academic expertise Techniques to assess city resilience help policymakers to make evidence-based decisions. To improve the range of tools available to policymakers, Greater Manchester and the University of Manchester led an EU project, the Uscore2 project, to design and test the world’s first city-to-city, disaster risk reduction peer review tool. Other collaborators included the municipalities of Amadora and Viggiano, UNDRR, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (UK), the Portuguese National Authority of Civil Protection and the Associazione di Protezione Civile Gruppo Lucano.

The project was designed to help cities to assess their approaches to disaster risk reduction, based on their risk profile. The final tool was aligned to the indicators for the Sendai Framework and Making Cities Resilient programme so that the peer reviews of local civil protection mechanisms could offer an independent and transparent assessment to assist cities in the challenge of strengthening their implementation of disaster risk reduction.

The peer review tool developed through Uscore2 was piloted in Viggiano, Salford and Amadora. These three cities have different disaster risk profiles, geographical and demographic characteristics, and statutory and regulatory frameworks. The effectiveness of the peer review tool was evaluated using a methodology developed by the University of Manchester. More information can be found here: www.gmemergencyplanning.org.uk/projects/uscore2-city-to-city-local-level-peer-review/

4. Understanding and addressing the emerging challenges and opportunities of new technologies Open data maps enable new ways of sharing of risk information with different stakeholders and the public. Mapping Greater Manchester provides a series of open data maps to support an open and inclusive approach to sustainable and resilient development in Greater Manchester. The maps enable the visualisation of spatial information through use of planning, housing, environmental, social, economic and demographic data.

The Greater Manchester Open Data Infrastructure Map (GMODIN) was originally produced to provide developers and planners with infrastructure and housing related information across Greater Manchester on a single, easily accessible map.

By drawing upon a range of public and private sector data, including data on flood risk areas and critical infrastructure, this work also benefits Greater Manchester in other aspects of disaster risk management, including through the development of emergency plans and live use of digital maps during emergency response. https://mappinggm.org.uk/gmodin/

62 63 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Themes: This Resilience Strategy is a mechanism to link different approaches and break down silos.

Simon Nokes, Executive Director of Strategy and Policy, GMCA

Governance Building on the governance structures and partnership working of the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum to coordinate reater Manchester is recognised for its strong and drive resilience building activities Gleadership and strong communities. We are willing to do things differently and these qualities have put the city-region at the forefront of devolution.

Building on over a decade of work, the multi-agency, cross-sector Greater Manchester Resilience Forum will continue to provide the backbone for our wide- reaching, flexible resilience network, spearheading Shaping the resilience agenda. This will require continued Shaping and influencing resilience engagement with: agendas across Greater Manchester, nationally and internationally to make • Other governance structures in Greater them relevant and supportive to Greater Manchester Manchester’s communities • Cross-border and other city-region/large urban Local Resilience Fora

Disaster risk governance at the national, • National government including MHCLG regional and global levels is very important Resilience & Emergencies Division as well for prevention, mitigation, preparedness, as Cabinet Office and Lead Government Departments response, recovery, and rehabilitation. It fosters collaboration and partnership. Outcomes • International partners including .through the UN Ensuring that the delivery of the Resilience Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Resilient Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015 Strategy represents value for money and Cities Network and the Counter-Terrorism improves outcomes for people in Preparedness Network Greater Manchester We will continue to work with a range of stakeholders, locally, nationally and internationally, to encourage and support new ideas to shape our practices. Priority 3 Leadership Shaping resilience within Greater Manchester 6464 65 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Examples of our work 3. Ensuring that the delivery of the The Resilience Resilience Strategy represents value 1. Building on the governance dividend: the net for money and improves outcomes for structures and partnership working social, economic and people in Greater Manchester physical benefits of the Greater Manchester Resilience As we rebuild our economy and society in Greater Manchester achieved when following the crisis caused by Covid-19, Greater Manchester Forum to co-ordinate and drive designing initiatives is looking to use social value to tackle inequalities and make and projects in a the things that we do, good, fair and sustainable. The Social resilience-building activities Value Framework encourages every organisation in Greater When Covid-19 first emerged as a global risk, Greater Manchester forward-thinking, Manchester to carry out its primary activity, whilst considering Resilience Forum established Greater Manchester’s multi-agency risk- aware, inclusive the following 6 priorities: command and control structures to oversee the response. These and integrated way. include a Recovery Co-ordinating Group which has authored a • Providing the best employment that you can one-year Greater Manchester Living with Covid-19 Resilience Plan. Judith Rodin, former President, • Keeping the air clean in Greater Manchester Rokefeller Foundation, 2015 The plan considers the impacts arising from Covid-19 and sets out • Creating the employment and skills opportunities that we actions to be taken over 12 months to support Greater Manchester’s need to build back better people, places and businesses to build resilience to further outbreaks of the virus or other emergencies, support Greater • Being a part of a strong local community Manchester to rebuild and develop our economy and society, and to • Making your organisation greener respond to inequalities revealed or exacerbated by Covid-19. • Developing a local, Greater Manchester-based and resilient The Living with Covid-19 Resilience Plan provides a bridge supply chain between the existing Greater Manchester Strategy and its refresh, which is due to take place in 2021. A Greater Manchester Social Value Network ( https://gmsvn. org.uk ) has been established to encourage organisations in every sector to implement the Framework. 2. Shaping and influencing resilience agendas across Greater Manchester, nationally and internationally to make them relevant and supportive to We are a diverse Greater Manchester’s communities group of cities, with varying governance Greater Manchester, together with other cities from across structures, strengths the world, helped the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to launch Making Cities Resilient 2030 (MCR2030) in early 2021. and challenges, and The successor to the Making Cities Resilient programme, this local and global is a unique cross-stakeholder initiative for improving local partnerships. However, city resilience. we have one thing in Through a 3-stage roadmap to urban resilience it will provide common - we truly resilience-building tools, enable access to knowledge and help with monitoring and reporting progress. understand the value of improving our cities Greater Manchester, as a member of MCR2030’s European Steering Committee, will be in a position to shape the work of through holistic urban this initiative, drawing on the approaches and resources on resilience. offer, whilst also ensuring MCR2030 meets the needs of city-regions such as ours. Mayor Sylvester Turner, Houston, Chair of Resilient Cities Network

6666 67 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

reater Manchester is a city-region that is Gundergoing significant change including an evolving economy, population growth and Themes: the need for new housing, changing demands on infrastructure, and the impact of changing climate on our natural environment. To be a resilient place means that we must be prepared for the consequences of these changes and, where possible, shape our future to improve our resilience.

Although recent growth and diversification Economy have strengthened the city-region’s economy, Using a resilience lens to enhance our economy it remains susceptible to acute shocks that can cause sudden disruption and chronic stresses that can hamper economic growth. Examples of shocks that caused substantial financial damage include the loss of a significant portion of our industrial base during the 1970s, ‘80s and ‘90s, the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and most recently the economic impacts of measures to control the spread of Covid-19.

The below graphic details a range of key Urban Growth determinants of economic resilience that Ensuring a resilient built environment – we must build upon to be prepared for an planning for resilient urban growth uncertain future.

Able to support a minumum starndard City of Trees is delivering on the climate change agenda. Growing of living across the Diverse population We are planting trees that will contribute to Greater Recover Manchester becoming carbon neutral by 2038. We also quickly from Natural Environment shocks / look at ways Nature Based Solutions, especially trees, can Protecting and promoting the resilience stresses Responsive Empowers people be used to adapt our urban areas and make them more value of the natural environment to achieve their ambitions, whilst resilient to a range of environmental challenges including Able to flex keeping prepared with shocks for economic air quality, flood risk and extreme heat. stresses - Able to shocks doesn’t break / continue to crumble under provide basic pressure services in Anticipating the event of a stresses and Responds shock or stress mitigating quickly and against them positevely Funding to shocks to Priority 4 Leveraging funding to make us come back Place more resilient stronger Results from a stakeholder dialogue session on Being ready for future challenges economic resilience held in 2018 6868 69 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Our growing population and changing economic and societal needs mean that we need to build Equally, the natural environment is integral to all aspects of life. Whilst Greater Manchester’s landscape new homes and develop new infrastructure, whilst at the same time ensuring that the homes, is predominantly urban or high-density urban, it is also home to a wealth of natural habitats and varied businesses and infrastructure that we currently have are resilient to both shocks and stresses. wildlife, including moorlands, wooded valleys, agricultural land, urban parks and suburban gardens.

Greater Manchester’s plans for future land use and development, together with the Greater The natural environment delivers against several basic needs and drivers for a resilient city-region Manchester Infrastructure Framework recognise that approaches to land use, development, the whilst having the potential to protect us from acute shocks such as floods. A damaged environment built environment and critical infrastructure will have a major impact on the resilience of the city- can reduce our resilience by exposing us to increased risk resulting from climate change and region, with the potential to both create new risk as well as increase resilience. The below graphic environmental degradation. Urban resilience is, therefore, reliant on a healthy environment and how details some of the measures to improve and maintain resilience within Greater Manchester: we use it to mitigate these risks.

Greater Manchester 5-Year Environment Plan Ensuring Supporting Locating that developments make the retrofitting of existing critical infrastructure and appropriate provision for response buildings, infrastructure and vulnerable uses away from Our Home, Our Production and evacuation in the case of an places to enhance locations at a high risk of Workplace Our Energy Our Transport Our Natural Our Resilience & Consumption emergency or disaster their resilience acute shocks and public Supply and Travel Environment and Adaptation of resources buildings

Produce Increase local Embed Reduce heat Decarnbonise Managing goods & renewable climate demands freight & shift our land services more energy adaption in all from homes to rail/water sustainably Providing Designing out Designing sustainably generation policies adaptable buildings and places out opportunities for crime, indoor/outdoor environments to Managing our Increase that can easily respond to anti-social behaviour provide a reduction/respite from Become more Reduce heat Decarbonise Tackle most demand from water & its resilience of changing needs and technologies and terrorism extreme temperatures/winds due responsible how we heat polluting commercial & environment our critical to climate change and urbanisation consumers our buildings vehicles public buildings sustainably infrastructure

Increase Phase out Increasing Managing Implement diversity & fossil fuel investment our waste nature based flexibility of private in natural sustainably solutions supply vehicles environment Increasing Taking Maintaining the size, spread, quality and an integrated catchment-based a very high level of economic Increasing interconnectedness of the green approach to managing diversity across Reducing Establish a Improve engagement unnecessary zero emission monitoring infrastructure network, enabling the flood risk Greater Manchester in our natural food waste bus fleet and reporting city-region, its citizens and wildlife environment to adapt to changing conditions

Increase use of public transport and active travel

Reducing the Achieving a Delivering Promoting Supporting heat demand net gain in at least 50,000 new affordable significant enhancements in healthier lifestyles and minimising in new biodiversity homes over the period 2018-2037 education, skills and knowledge potential negative impacts on buildings for new builds health including air pollution

Greater Manchester Spatial Framework Publication Plan, 2020 7070 71 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Examples of our work 3. Protecting and promoting the resilience value of the natural Our Local Industrial environment 1. Using a resilience lens to enhance Strategy sets out clear our economy As part of the natural environment trees offer resilience priorities for boosting benefits such as providing cooling during heatwaves and Our approach to recovery from large-scale shocks is local productivity with intercepting rainfall to reduce flooding; locking away carbon underpinned by the Greater Manchester Strategic Recovery actions based around which is essential if we are to address climate change; helping Guidance which provides guidance on considering, amongst five foundations of to create safer places by preventing access of unauthorised other topics, restoration of the economy. vehicles to pedestrian and public places; addressing air productivity – ideas, pollution; contributing to health and mental wellbeing; We have agreed a specific Greater Manchester Economic creating habitats for wildlife and enabling greater biodiversity. Shock Response Plan which describes the response people, infrastructure, arrangements of partner agencies to an economic shock business environment Within Greater Manchester, City of Trees brings communities, or other incident which causes significant job losses and and places - and organisations and companies together to revitalise the hardship within Greater Manchester. opportunities grouped environment. This includes planting 3 million trees - one tree for every person living in Greater Manchester - and bringing The plan offers a flexible and scalable framework setting out under four Grand 2,000 hectares of unmanaged woodland back into use for core principles and components needed to form the platform Challenges – artificial the community. from which responses will be coordinated and delivered, as well as providing options and capabilities which may be called intelligence and data, City of Trees has also produced, ‘All our Trees, a Tree Strategy upon depending on the scale and nature of the economic the ageing society, for Greater Manchester’ containing maps that demonstrate shock. This includes arrangements to draw upon expertise to future of mobility, and where tree planting can help address single and multiple provide vital advice and support to businesses. clean growth. resilience issues such as flooding, air quality, the urban heat island effect and habitat fragmentation. “A resilient economy is one that is able to survive, adapt, grow and contribute to a thriving society by reducing and managing Greater Manchester Combined acute shocks to economic life and the chronic stresses that Authority, 2019 inhibit economic productivity, innovation, and adaptability” 4. Leveraging funding to make us

100RC Cuts to resources are more resilient continuing to drive a Extreme weather events are becoming an increasing part of 2. Promoting a resilient built requirement to focus urban life and Greater Manchester is seeing these hazards evolve and intensify as both climate and urban areas change. environment – planning for resilient on early intervention and prevention through The IGNITION project is a ground-breaking project that aims urban growth to develop innovative financing solutions for investment in Our ambition is to encourage resilience to be considered in all a multi-faceted Greater Manchester’s natural environment. This investment building projects to avoid creating new risks, reduce existing risks approach, including will help to build the city-region’s ability to adapt to the and mitigate residual risks. We have been using a Project Scan supporting the role of increasingly extreme impacts of climate change. It is Tool from the Resilient Cities Network to identify the resilience estimated that Greater Manchester requires a 10% uplift in challenges and opportunities of projects. One of its first uses was communities, safe and urban green infrastructure to adapt to the projected climate in the planning process to upgrade our water infrastructure. sustainable physical change impacts of flooding and overheating and to increase its climate resilience by 2038. To meet the increasing water demand of our rapidly growing development, and urban population United Utilities, the water utility provider harnessing the benefits Working with nature, solutions such as rain gardens, street trees, for much of Greater Manchester, has been upgrading its core that the natural green roofs and walls and the development of green spaces infrastructure including its aqueduct system. This transports environment to prevent can help to tackle socio-environmental resilience challenges potable water 134km from the Lake District to 1.5 million people including an increase in flooding events, water security, air within the city-region. and reduce the impact quality, biodiversity and human health and wellbeing. of shocks and stresses. As part of the upgrade process, several options were drawn The IGNITION project, backed by €4.5 million from the EU’s up with each option varying in cost, ability to address shocks Urban Innovation Actions initiative, brings together 12 partners Dave Keelan, Assistant County and stresses, and the level of service disruption. United from local government, universities, NGOs and business. The Fire Officer, Greater Manchester Utilities recognised the implications of this project for Greater Fire and Rescue Service aim is, by April 2022, to develop the first model of its kind Manchester’s overall resilience and saw an opportunity to ensure that enables major investment in large-scale environmental the project delivered resilience value through use of the Project projects which can increase climate resilience. Scan Tool to assess the resilience benefits of each option. 7272 7373 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Emergencies can cause the worst day of people’s lives and have Themes: lingering, devastating effects on everyone involved. Our goal is to support our communities during these most difficult times through careful planning and Collaboration effective response. Assessing the risk of civil emergencies through multi-agency collaboration

Preparedness Developing plans and capabilities to enable effective response and resilient city-region is one that seeks to recovery following emergencies Areduce the risk of acute shocks occurring through a range of measures, including limiting exposure to hazards and reducing vulnerability. A resilient city-region is also one that is prepared for the emergencies that do occur, having the ability to respond in a way that not Training only addresses the consequences caused but Designing and delivering multi-agency also takes the opportunity to identify learning training and exercising to improve from the crisis, to reduce future risk where responders’ awareness and skills, and to The growth of disaster risk means there is a need to validate plans possible and to build back better. strengthen disaster preparedness for response, take action in Greater Manchester, like other areas in the UK, anticipation of events, and ensure capacities are in place for prepares for emergencies by using the model effective response and recovery at all levels. of Integrated Emergency Management (IEM) which has 6 steps: Sendai Framework 2015 Information • Anticipation Providing the public with information and guidance and supporting • Assessment community resilience to increase emergency preparedness • Prevention • Preparation

• Response Priority 5 • Recovery Learning Using this approach the preparation for, response to, and recovery from emergencies Identifying and utilising learning from Responding incidents to strengthen response and focuses on the consequences and wider recovery arrangements impacts of events rather than solely on Sustaining effective preparedness, response and recovery from emergencies their causes. 7474 7575 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Gather Response Recovery information & intelligence The decisions and actions taken to The process of rebuilding, restoring and deal with the immediate effects of an rehabilitating the community following an emergency emergency

Assess risks Preparation for emergencies is led by the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum. Established Take action & & develop over a decade ago as a requirement of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, the Greater Manchester review what a working happened Working Resilience Forum (GMRF) has continued to lead multi-agency emergency planning across the Together strategy city-region ever since. Planning for shocks is achieved through multi-agency joint working, co- Saving Lives ordinated through a clear, shared structure. Reducing Harm Supported by and in Greater Manchester Identify partnership with: Resilience Forum Consider powers, options & policies & • Greater Manchester Local contingencies procedures Authorities Chief Officers Group

• Greater Manchester Local Health Resilience Partership

• Health Economy Resilience Group Resilience Oversight Group • Borough Resilience Groups Co-locate Co-locate with commanders as soon as practicably possible at a single • Voluntary Sector and safe and easily identified location near to the scene. Communty Forum

Communicate Communiate clearly using plain English.

Manchester Airport Commissioning Risks, Plans COMAH Emergency Planning and Group for Training and Planning Co-ordinate Resilience Committee and Exercising Lessons Group Group Co-ordinate by agreeing the lead service. Identify priorities, resources and capabilities for an effective resposnse,including the timing of further meetings.

Jointly understand risk Training and Task and Jointly understand risk by sharing information about the likelihood and Exercising Finish Groups potential impact of threats and hazards to agree potential control measures. Delivery Group as required Shared situation awareness Our experience shows that existing relationships and partnerships provide a fundamental foundation Shared situational awareness established by using METHANE and for effective response and recovery. In particular, these enable a good level of knowledge about the the Joint Decision Model. strengths and capabilities of organisations from the outset of any emergency response, as well as a clear direction of travel for longer-term coordination and the provision of any support required. JESIP offers incident commanders a range of tools (https://jesip.org.uk/home) This partnership working underpins not just planning and preparing for emergencies, but also the deployment of resources and the protocols used in responding. Within the UK and Greater Manchester, 7676 the Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles (JESIP) guide the partnership response. 77 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Examples of our work 3. Providing the public with information and guidance and supporting 1. Developing plans and capabilities Well-conceived community resilience to increase emergency to enable effective response and preparedness and emergency preparedness recovery following emergencies response plans not A well-informed public is more resilient, better able to respond to an emergency and to minimise its impact. In Following the Manchester Arena attack in 2017 the Mayor of only save lives and the Covid-19 pandemic a multi-agency approach has been Greater Manchester made it clear that the experiences of property, they often also used to communicate essential public health advice to both bereaved families, the injured and others directly affected, contribute to resilience members of the public and local businesses with an expert together with their need for emotional support, should be at communications group established to coordinate messages. the heart of service delivery and learning. and post-disaster recovery by lessening A wide variety of communication methods have been used The Manchester Resilience Hub was launched on 17 July, the impact of a disaster. including a weekly public live broadcast with the Mayor of seven weeks after the attack. Staffed by clinicians from child, Greater Manchester. adolescent and adult mental health services the Hub provides Preparedness efforts, mental health care and treatment, using a customised web- early warning systems The communications group has also been seeking to based clinical system. understand our communities’ concerns and needs. This can and communication help to ensure any communications recognise the perceptions Building relationships with families allows the Hub to check in systems will help ensure that may exist within different sectors of society. with them regularly, recognising that strengthening a family’s that cities, communities day-to-day support structure is crucial. Learning from the Hub Behavioural insight research, conducted through has also demonstrated that referring initially to the NHS is the and individuals interviews and polls, has allowed us to test and improve our best safeguard we have in ensuring appropriate, evidenced threatened by natural or communication ensuring we give people the best information possible in ways most suited to them. help is available to those affected. other hazards can act This and wider learning have now been built into Greater in sufficient time and Manchester’s Psychosocial Strategic Response Plan. appropriately to reduce 4. Identifying and using learning from injury, loss of life and incidents to strengthen response and 2. Designing and delivering damage to property and recovery arrangements fragile environments. multi-agency training and exercising Risks and threats evolve and, if we are to be prepared for to improve responders’ awareness unexpected shocks, sharing learning from incidents that do UNDRR: The Ten Essentials For happen is crucial. and skills, and to validate plans Making Cities Resilient Early warning is a major element of disaster risk Greater Manchester is a member of The Counter-Terrorism Greater Manchester runs a comprehensive training and Preparedness Network (CTPN) together with London, Paris, exercising programme to help emergency responders to reduction. It prevents Barcelona, Rotterdam and Stockholm. The Network is practice their skills and to validate emergency plans. loss of life and reduces supported by several academic partners.

Exercise Triton II is an example of one of these exercises. Held the economic and This Network has been established to harness the benefits in 2016 it was one of the largest live exercises of its kind ever material impact of of collaboration between domestic and international held in the North West, involving over 35 organisations. The disasters. Effective partners to identify lessons, share experience and develop complex scenario used in the exercise was designed to test early warning systems arrangements for preparedness and societal resilience in how emergency services and other partners including the relation to terrorism. It serves as a knowledge exchange military, local and central government, health services, utility need a people-centred between subject matter experts to highlight notable practice companies and voluntary agencies were equipped to tackle a approach tailored to and present a series of recommendations to influence the major emergency characterised by high rainfall, river flooding arrangements of participating cities. and the breaching of a reservoir dam. local conditions and involving a wide range Although incidents like the one exercised in Exercise Triton II are unlikely, the events at Toddbrook reservoir in 2019 proved of stakeholders. the necessity of preparing for these eventualities to ensure Greater Manchester residents are protected as far as possible. Met Office

78 7979 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Summary and Conclusions

art 2 has detailed the priorities and themes that we have Pdetermined to be important for building upon Greater Manchester’s resilience. They are specific enough to allow us to focus on the key activities that must occur, whilst also being broad enough in scope to allow for future changes and evolving risks over the coming decade.

Our priorities start with our people and our communities who are at the heart of our approach and this person-centred approach runs right through everything we want to do.

We need to learn, develop and discover new ways to be resilient to 21st-century risks, ensuring we capitalise on new technology and the wealth of academic expertise that exists in our city-region.

We need to ensure our governance structures are up to the demands of these resilience challenges and that activity is appropriately funded.

We need to build and develop our places in a resilient manner, support our economy, and push through changes that allow the natural environment to flourish and to protect the places in which we live.

And we need to ensure that we respond and recover from emergencies in the best possible way, minimising human suffering, environmental degradation, and economic losses where at all possible.

We have illustrated each of the themes within our 5 resilience priorities with recent and ongoing examples of our work to demonstrate the kinds of activity we wish to see over the next ten years. Each year we will produce an action plan to set out where our focus will be against each of the themes.

It will be through the drive and determination of the diverse communities and stakeholders that make up Greater Manchester that we will be able to look back in ten years and be proud of our achievements.

We hope that this Strategy provides the roadmap that enables Greater Manchester, in this changing and complex world, to create one of the most resilient places where everyone can grow up, get on and age well together.

8080 81 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

References

Cabinet Office. (2012). Glossary: Revision to Emergency Preparedness. Office for National Statistics. (2017). Regional gross value added (balanced) by combined authority in the UK. Cabinet Office. (2017). National Risk Register 2017. Public Health England. (2018). Spanish Flu a hundred years on. Cabinet Office. (2020). National Risk Register 2020. Public Health England. (2020). Disparities in the Risks and Outcomes of Covid-19. City of Trees. (2020). All our Trees, a Tree Strategy for Greater Manchester. Resilient Cities Network. (n.d.). Urban Resilience. Environment Agency. (2018). Estimating the economic cost of the winter floods 2015-2016. Rodin, J. (2015). The Resilience Dividend. London: Profile Books LTD. Greater Manchester Combined Authority. (2017). The Greater Manchester Internationalisation Strategy. United Nations. (2015). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Greater Manchester Combined Authority. (2020). Greater Manchester Spatial Framework Publication Plan. United Nations. (2015). Sustainable Development Goals. Greater Manchester Combined Authority. (2019). Local Industrial Strategy. United Nations. (2015). The Human Cost of Weather-Related Disasters 1995-2015. Greater Manchester Combined Authority. (2019). A Shared Future – One Year On. United Nations. (2017). Disaster resilience scorecard for cities. Greater Manchester Combined Authority. (2019). 5 Year Environment Plan for Greater Manchester: United Nations. (2019). Global Assessment of Risk. 2019-2024. United Nations. (2020). Speech by Ms. Mami Mitzutori, Special Representative of the Secretary General Greater Manchester Combined Authority. (2020). Coronavirus – Greater Manchester community for Disaster risk Reduction, Daring Cities Closing Plenary. support for residents. United Nations. (2021). Making Cities Resilient 2030 (MCR2030). Greater Manchester Combined Authority. (2020). Greater Manchester Digital Blueprint. University College London Institute for Health Equity. (2020). Health Equity in Greater Manchester: Greater Manchester Independent Prosperity Review. (2019). Greater Manchester Independent The Marmot Review 2020. Prosperity Review Reviewers Report. World Health Organisation. (2018). Managing epidemics: Key facts about major deadly disease. Greater Manchester VCSE Leadership Group. (2020). Voluntary organisations, Community groups and Social Enterpises (VCSE) in Greater Manchester – the next 10 years. Guterres, A. (2019). UN Secretary-General: Fragmented Response to Global Risk a ‘Recipe For Disaster’. HM Government. (2019). Community Resilience Development Framework. HM Government. (2019). Contained and controlled: The UK’s 20-year vision for antimicrobial resistance. HM Government. (2004). Civil Contingencies Act. JESIP. (2016). Joint Doctrine: The Interoperability Framework. KPMG. (2015). Magnet Cities. Lindsay, T. (n.d.). Using a resilience lens to create a more resilient economy. 100RC. Met Office. (n.d.). National early warning services. National Audit Office. (2018). WannaCry cyber attack and the NHS. National Infrastructure Commission. (2019). Resilience Scoping Report. National Infrastructure Commission. (2020). Anticipate, Recover, React: Resilient Infrastructure Systems. Office for National Statistics. (2015). Highest number of excess winter deaths since 1999-2000.

82 83 Greater Manchester | Resilience Strategy

Thank you to 100RC for funding AECOM to assist in the final presentation and design of this Strategy.