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Pdf | 330.44 Kb NIGER Food Security Outlook July through December 2011 • On the whole, the growing season has begun and is off to a Figure 1. Current estimated food security normal start in the agricultural and agropastoral areas of the outcomes, July 2011 country. With current forecasts calling for average to above‐ average cumulative rainfall, the 2011/12 harvest should be average to good. • There are reports of extremely large lags in the start‐of‐season in Ouallam, Téra, and Tillabery departments, which were not targeted for priority action during last year’s crisis and are feeling the effects of poor pasture production in 2010/11 and high acute malnutrition rates (Figure 1). • Food insecurity levels are rising, driven by a growing demand for food consumption and the loss of remittance income; a result of the early return of massive numbers of migrants from Libya and Côte d’Ivoire to areas dependent on this source of Source: FEWS NET income. For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events Source: FEWS NET Most likely food security scenario for July through December 2011 Nationwide situation as of the beginning of July The meetings of experts organized by the national early warning system (SAP) in May/June of this year reviewed the humanitarian programs conducted during the post‐harvest period, examined the final performance figures for the agropastoral season, assessed the vulnerability of different populations, and ascertained the status of repatriates from Libya and Côte d’Ivoire. A re‐evaluation of applicable indicators puts the size of the food‐insecure population at 2,287,398. The findings by these analyses show a clear improvement over last year (‐63 percent) and compared with the five‐year average (‐38 percent). Residents of Tahoua, Guidam Roumdji, Bouza, Magaria, Loga, Ouallam, Tillabery, Téra, Tchintabaraden, Tchirozérine, Gouré, Dakoro, Mayahi, Keita, Abalak, Illéla, and Tessaoua departments are most vulnerable to food insecurity. FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Niamey 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for Tel: 00 227 20 31 71 33 Washington DC 20006 International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/niger NIGER Food Security Outlook July through December 2011 The loss of income from migrant remittances and the growing consumer demand, driven by the return of migrants and transhumant pastoralists, translated into sharp cuts in grain intake by poor agropastoral and pastoral households in July of this year. In fact, according to the findings by a FEWS NET study of conditions in Loga, Tahoua, Tanout, and Gouré departments, migration is an important part of household livelihoods in these areas. On average, 67 to 96 percent of the households surveyed in all wealth groups (poor, middle‐income, and better‐off) engage in migration. Financial migration income is extremely important, particularly during food crises like that of 2010. Migration income has fallen off by anywhere from 51 to 75 percent with the current sociopolitical crises in major receiving countries for migrants from Niger (Libya, Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria). The especially large if not total losses of remittance income from Libya are mainly affecting middle‐income and better‐off households in Gouré and Tanout. Losses of migrant remittances from Côte d’Ivoire, though considerable, are generally not as large. Nutritional conditions are more or less average to good for this time of year. In Tillabery, however, the global acute malnutrition rate for the month of June was considerably above normal seasonal rates before last year’s crisis and the severe acute malnutrition rate was well above the figure for June of last year (Tables 1 and 2). Table 1. Global acute malnutrition rates based on SMART surveys (weight/height <-2 SD and/or edema, WHO standard) Region Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 95% CI Nov-10 95% CI Jun-11 95% CI Agadez (urban) 18.4 9.1 11.7 11.7 8.7-15.5 17.4 13.6-21.9 6.7 3.6-12.1 Diffa 20.5 13.8 17.4 17.0 13.3-22.5 12.5 10.1-15.4 13.9 11.4-16.8 Dosso 9.5 9.6 12.3 12.3 9.6-15.5 12.1 9.4-15.4 12.7 10.7-14.9 Maradi 14.5 11.7 13.1 13.1 10.7-15.9 15.3 12.9-18.1 12.2 10.3-14.5 Tahoua 7.9 9.4 10.9 10.9 8.6-13.8 16.1 13.8-18.7 12.0 9.9-14.5 Tillabery 10.2 10.3 8.6 8.6 6.6-11.1 16.1 13.6-19.0 14.8 11.9-18.2 Zinder 15.4 17.4 15.4 15.4 12.8-18.4 17.8 13.3-23.4 11.1 9.2-13.3 Niamey 9.8 7.9 10.1 10.1 8.0-12.6 9.8 7.3-13.1 11.0 8.9-13.6 Niger 12.3 11.6 12.3 12.3 11.2-13.4 15.3 14.0-16.6 12.3 11.4-13.3 Source: National Statistics Bureau (INS) Table 2. Severe acute malnutrition rates based on SMART surveys (weight/height <-3 SD and/or edema, WHO standard) Region Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 95% CI Nov-10 95% CI Jun-11 95% CI Agadez (urban) 3.9 2.1 2.5 2.5 1.4-4.2 1.7 0.8-3.3 1.2 0.4-3.3 Diffa 3.6 2.2 3.4 3.4 2.0-5.9 2.7 1.8-4.1 1.8 1.0-3.5 Dosso 1.5 0.6 2.5 2.5 1.7-3.8 1.9 1.2-3.0 3.1 2.2-4.2 Maradi 4 3.6 1.8 1.8 1.3-2.5 4.2 3.2-5.3 1.6 1.1-2.3 Tahoua 1.5 2.2 1.6 1.6 0.9-2.6 2.7 1.8-4.0 1.8 1.2-2.7 Tillabery 1.3 2.9 0.7 0.7 0.3-1.6 2.9 1.7-5.1 2.5 1.7-3.6 Zinder 3.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 2.5-5.1 3.5 2.1-5.6 1.6 1.0-2.4 Niamey 1.9 2 1.6 1.6 0.9-3.0 1.4 0.6-3.1 1.5 0.9-2.7 Niger 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.7-2.5 3.0 2.5-3.6 1.9 1.7-2.3 Source: INS Based on this data and information from therapeutic feeding centers for malnourished children and with the expected seasonal deterioration in food security conditions (normally between June or July and the height of the lean season in August/September), FEWS NET is putting farming, agropastoral, and pastoral areas of Tillabery, Téra, and Ouallam departments in IPC Phase 3 (crisis). The following underlying factors are driving needs for emergency assistance: • The failure to target these areas for priority action during last year’s crisis despite the weaknesses of household coping strategies in the face of the magnitude of the crisis and the limited coping ability of area households in the aftermath of the 2010 crisis; • The unusually high and protracted prevalence of malaria with last year’s excessive rainfall activity extending into October and the correlation between malaria and acute malnutrition in Niger; • The pasture deficits in the northern reaches of this area in 2010/11; • The delay in harvests until November/December instead of beginning in October due to the prolongation of last year’s rainy season. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Outlook July through December 2011 The study of monitoring indicators for the growing season in farming and pastoral areas showed a definitely normal start‐ of‐season in farming areas of the country. As of July 10th of this year, 10,134 farming villages had planted crops, which is equivalent to a 91 percent completion rate. The Dosso, Maradi, and Tahoua regions have a 100 percent completion rate. A review of market conditions shows a remarkable improvement in supplies from surplus‐producing farmers and traders with the definitive start and normal progress of the growing season. The combination of these favorable conditions and the completion of local grain procurements by the government helped stabilize grain prices, which were still close to the five‐ year average in June. Basic assumptions for the period from July through December 2011 The seasonal rainfall outlook predicted normal to above‐normal cumulative rainfall for the current growing season in Niger. The conclusion, representing the technical consensus, based on start‐of‐season conditions, forecasts, the ONI (Oceanic Niño Index), and estimated historical rainfall distribution data is that this year’s rainfall totals will be comparable to or slightly below figures for 2008 when rainfall totals as of September 30th were generally above to well‐above the 1971‐2000 historical average. Rainfall amounts and soil water reserves during the 2008 growing season helped promote normal crop growth and development. • A larger than average area will be planted in crops this year and the growing season should go normally.
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