Monthly Food Security Update March 2006

Alert Level: No alert Watch Warning Emergency

SUMMARY Summary of the food and nutrition situation Summary & timeline...... 1 The food security situation in Niger as of the month of March was marked by pockets of Current hazard summary ...... 1 food insecurity in agropastoral and pastoral areas of the country, in the wake of the Food security, health and nutrition depletion of grain reserves, the repayment of debts incurred during last year’s crisis, ...... 2 localized grain and forage deficits and relatively high price levels compared with the five- Stream flow conditions...... 4 year average. There has been very little movement in prices for major grain crops since Market situation ...... 4 February, but price levels are still relatively high compared with the average, despite a Relief efforts...... 5 good harvest this past growing season. Most likely, this price stability is connected with the improvement in grain availability derived from commercial imports from neighboring countries such as Mali and Nigeria. According to nutrition stakeholders, admissions rates for therapeutic feeding centers in the Maradi and Zinder regions are starting to inch upwards and are expected to pick up even further during the upcoming lean period. As far as health conditions are concerned, according to the National Health Information System (SNIS), 984 cases of meningitis were reported over the period between January 1 and March 21, with 64 fatalities.

These localized signs of a deterioration of food security and nutrition warrant the implementation of special programs designed to quickly ease adverse conditions in highly food-insecure areas by strengthening the capacity of local households to deal with a possible serious erosion of their sources of food and income. Such programs would help improve the food access of impoverished households and protect their sources of income, enabling them to better manage during the upcoming lean period and begin the growing season in better condition.

Food security conditions in Niger in the wake of a confirmed epizootic bird flu outbreak in the southern part of the country are propelling stakeholders to mobilize with a view to containing the spread of the disease. The spread of this disease to other parts of the country would undercut the income of poor households.

Timeline of major events and warning signs

Current hazard summary

Bird flu: The food situation is tarnished by an epizootic outbreak of bird flu. Since the confirmation of a bird flu outbreak in and Zinder departments in the south, close to the country’s border with Nigeria, which was the first country to confirm the presence of the H5N1 virus anywhere in Africa, the government of Niger has taken a number of measures including but not limited to the crafting of an emergency plan, a call for international aid and the establishment of a quarantine zone with a five-kilometer radius around infected areas, with bans on any and all poultry movements and confinement measures for the slaughtering and incineration of the existing bird population. At the nationwide level, it also imposed strict bans on poultry movements between different regions. This could undermine the sources of income for

USAID/Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)-NIGER Tel: 041-532530; 265 15 48 92 - [email protected] World Food Programme-NIGER/VAM; Tel: 00221 72 23 20; Koffi AKAKPO – [email protected]

NIGER: UPDATE ON THE FOOD AND NUTRITION SITUATION MARCH 2006 poor households partially dependent on poultry sales as a way of ensuring their food access, particularly during the lean period.

Food-insecure areas: There are a number of pockets of food insecurity confined mainly to agropastoral and farming areas of the country. Local households have begun to develop so-called “negative resilience” strategies and conditions during the upcoming lean period could further curtail their food access without immediate relief efforts.

Reported cases of meningitis: According to the National Health Information System (SNIS), a meningitis epidemic, with 989 cases reported over the period from January 1 - March 21, has produced a total of 64 fatalities nationwide, translating into a mortality rate of 6.5%. Most outbreaks of the disease have been confined to the .

Relatively little movement in grain prices between February and March: Prices for all major grain crops on most markets around the country have been relatively stable since the month of February.

Food security, health and nutrition

Household food security in areas plagued by large grain and forage deficits and areas hard hit by last year’s food crisis has visibly deteriorated since last month. There are a number of contributing factors at play, including:

1. The relatively high prices of all major staple grain crops for this time of year compared with the five-year average; 2. Localized reports of poor grain availability; 3. Localized reports of a downturn in terms of trade for livestock/grain from the standpoint of pastoralists.

Destitute households in the northern Map 1: Status of food-insecure areas reaches of Ouallam, Garhanga (Keita) and western Kornaka (Dakoro) are cutting back their number of daily meals, while growing numbers of laborers are looking for work in and around large urban population centers.

In herding areas, with the untimely steady deterioration in forage availability for consumption by the animal population and the premature drying of seasonal lakes and ponds, pastoralists and their animals are beginning to head out for more lush pastures in southern Niger and neighboring countries such as Nigeria and Mali. According to the Association for the Revitalization of the Livestock-Raising Industry in Niger (AREN), grazing conditions in the Ayorou (Tillabery), Banibangou (Ouallam) and Abala (Filingué) areas are especially Source: SAP (National Early Warning System), SANI , AREN, SNIS alarming.

In the wake of the confirmation of the presence of the bird flu virus in Magaria (Zinder), the government and its food security partners are focusing their health control efforts on rigorously enforcing quarantines of infected areas and planning for the slaughtering of bird populations within established quarantine zones. Suspected outbreaks of the disease confined to the N’Guigmi area in February have since spread to the Birnin Konni and Dosso regions. Pending receipt of the results of tests conducted on dead bird specimens from the Konni, N’Guigmi and Dosso areas by a foreign laboratory, the technical committee tasked with containing the spread of the disease is continuing to monitor these areas closely.

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Turning to the nutrition situation, there have been Figure 2: Trends in the number of admissions of severely minor fluctuations in the number of admissions of malnourished children to treatment centers in Keita and Abalak moderately and severely malnourished children to therapeutic feeding centers monitored by the NGO 35 Action Against Hunger (ACF) in the Tahoua and 30

Keita areas since the month of January, but 25 admissions rates are still relatively low compared 20 with figures for last year’s lean period. There are numerous reports of a rise in moderate malnutrition 15 in Magaria and Tanout departments (in the Zinder 10

region) as the lean period looms nearer. According admissions of Number 5 to several sources, including OCHA, there has also been a steady increase in the number of cases of 0 1/2 1/9 1/16 1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/13 moderate and severe malnutrition admitted to to to to to to to to to to to to therapeutic feeding centers in Maradi since 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/5 3/12 3/19 January. Nutrition stakeholders are marshalling TOTAL ABALAK KEITA human, financial and logistic resources for the treatment of malnourished children in preparation Source: Action Against Hunger for the normal seasonal upsurge in severe and moderate malnutrition during the pre-harvest lean period.

Looking at health conditions, according to the National Health Information System (SNIS), a meningitis epidemic, with 984 cases of the disease reported over the period between January 1 and March 21 of this year, is responsible for 64 fatalities nationwide, translating into a mortality rate of 6.5%. Most outbreaks were confined to Madarounfa, Guidan Roumdji, Aguié and Maradi departments. An emergency plan was put into effect by government health authorities, assisted by the country’s development partners, in an effort to control the spread of this disease.

Household food economy and livelihoods

The juxtaposition of various negative economic factors is expected to weaken the food Figure 3: Trends in terms of trade for male sheep/millet in Abalak (January 2005 - March 2006) economy of poor households in farming and pastoral areas, making them vulnerable to 35,000 120 economic shocks during the upcoming lean 30,000 period. Such factors include trends in terms of 100 trade and the repayment of debts incurred during last year’s food crisis. 25,000 80 A combination of falling prices for small 20,000 livestock animals generally raised by poor 60 households and comparatively high grain prices CFAF 15,000 since November of last year has been steadily 40 kg/male sheep eroding terms of trade for pastoralists. For 10,000 example, the sale of a male sheep in N’Guigmi 20 brought in 35 kg of millet back in February of 5,000 this year, compared with only 30 kg in March, 0 0 which is a 17% drop (Figure 3). Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

There has been an especially sharp erosion of Price of 1 male sheep Pricve of 100 kg millet Kg millet per male sheep terms of trade in areas reporting large forage Source: SIMB (Livestock Market Information System) deficits. Right now, terms of trade for pastoralists are only slightly better than they were at the same time last year, but with this year’s better grazing conditions, trends in price ratios for sheep/millet over the next few months should be more advantageous than they were last year from the standpoint of pastoralists selling sheep. Current terms of trade could affect small-scale herders and agropastoralists on a number of different levels. They could weaken the purchasing power of small-scale herders significantly, curtailing their food access during the upcoming lean period. They could also force these households to sell off more animals and, in some cases, to deplete their herds. Furthermore, they could sharply reduce the ability of agropastoralists to cover preparatory expenses for the upcoming growing season. The combined effects of these factors could heighten the vulnerability of households highly dependent on sales of small livestock animals as a source of income.

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However, the spread of the bird flu outbreak which, thus far, has been confined to Magaria department, could boost meat consumption, putting pressure on demand for meat products which, in turn, could raise prices, reversing current negative trends in terms of trade.

Stream flow conditions

The level of the Niger River has been falling for the past Figure 4: Fluctuations in the rate of flow of the Niger River few weeks, translating into a slowdown in the flow rate at (July 2005 - March 2006) compared with previous months (Figure 4). A look at monthly fluctuations in the average rate of flow of the Niger 1800 River shows a sharp drop between January and March, 1600 from 1,506 cc/s down to 334 cc/s. The level of the river is 1400 still high enough to supply enough water for the cultivation of irrigated crops along the river bank. However, it is 1200 hampering travel by pirogue, which is an important mode 1000 of transportation for getting supplies to certain remote

cm3/s 800 areas. 600 Should the level of the river continue to fall at its present 400 rate, this could mean serious water shortages for irrigated 200 crops, reducing the volume of local crop production under this type of farming system. 0 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Market situation Source: DRE/MHE/LCD (Bureau of Water Resources/Ministry of Water Grain markets Management, Environment and Desertification Control)

After January and February’s sharp hikes in Figure 5: Trends in millet prices (March 2002-06) prices for all major staple grain crops, March prices have been relatively stable. Thus, in 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average general, millet prices on urban markets around 20,000 the country showed no change from February, 18,000 with the exception of prices in Maradi, where 16,000 prices are up by 6% from last month. 14,000

12,000 Nationwide, prices for a sack of millet are down 10,000 6% from February of last year and 5% above the 8,000

average for the last five years. kg CFAF/100 6,000 More specifically, the price of a 100 kg sack of 4,000 millet currently stands at 17,100 CFA francs in 2,000 Tillabery and at 15,500 CFA francs in Maradi and 0 Tahoua, which is 6% below last year’s figure and Dosso Maradi Tahoua Tillabery Zinder Niamey Average

5% above the five-year average. Source: SIMA (Agricultural Market Information System)

This kind of price stability is unusual at this time of year, given the normal seasonal upswing in prices beginning in February.

These positive market trends could be connected with the improvement in grain availability in the wake of commercial imports from neighboring countries such as Nigeria and Mali. Another contributing factor in the leveling off of market prices could be the slackening in demand from cooperatives and NGOs seeking to top off their inventories after the harvest season.

The large availability of cowpeas and sorghum, particularly in the Maradi and Zinder regions, could improve the availability and variety of food products, pushing grain prices down.

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Livestock markets Figure 6: Trends in the price of male sheep (November 2005 – March 2006)

The rise in animal maintenance Dakoro Tanout 25,000 35,000 costs and the slackening demand 30,000 20,000 on major livestock markets are 25,000 15,000 beginning to drive down the 20,000 10,000 15,000 10,000 CFAF/head market value of livestock in CFAF/head 5,000 5,000 general and small livestock 0 0 animals in particular. Thus, the Nov De c Jan Fe b M ar Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar price of a male sheep on the Dakoro, Tanout and N’Guigmi Tchintabaraden Abalak markets stood at 13,720, 16,100 25,000 25,000 and 11,500 CFAF, respectively, 20,000 20,000 for the month of March, down 15,000 15,000 30%, 18% and 18% from 10,000 10,000 CFAF/head February. 5,000 CFAF/head 5,000

0 0 However, according to the Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Livestock Market Information System (SIMB), the cost of large Bakin Birdji Agade z animals is rising due, in large part, 25,000 25,000 to demand for exports, slaughter 20,000 20,000 animals, animal traction and 15,000 15,000 animal transport. 10,000 10,000 CFAF/head 5,000 CFAF/head 5,000 Relief efforts 0 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar The government of Niger has crafted an assistance plan for N'Guigmi Ayorou food-insecure population groups 25,000 30,000 for this year. The plan focuses on 20,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 capacity-building for shock 15,000 10,000 management purposes and relief 10,000 CFAF/head CFAF/head efforts. It requires an estimated 5,000 5,000 50.6 billion CFA francs in 0 0 financing, including some 44 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Nov De c Jan Fe b M ar billion CFAF in emergency funding, and includes activities by Mayahi Arlit the WFP. WFP emergency 25,000 25,000 operations (EMOP 10398.0) 20,000 20,000 conclude at the end of March, but 15,000 15,000 the organization will continue to 10,000 10,000 CFAF/head provide assistance under its CFAF/head 5,000 5,000 country program and PRRO 0 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar (Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation) effective as of the Source: SIMB (Livestock Market Information System) beginning of April. This latter WFP operation is aimed at protecting the livelihoods and building the shock management capacity of targeted population groups. It includes an extremely important nutrition component forming an integral part of the government’s own action plan and will be implemented in close cooperation with UNICEF, the WHO and various local and international NGOs.

Other WFP activities help promote rural development, including food for work projects, grain bank programs and food for training projects, all duly synchronized with the government assistance plan for food-insecure groups. The PRRO also provides for the establishment of a contingency reserve to be used, as needed, for targeted distributions of free food supplies to highly and extremely food-insecure groups.

Current estimates put the level of the national food security reserve at only 15,000 MT, compared with needs totaling approximately 110,000 MT, including 50,000 MT worth of physical inventory and 60,000 MT worth of financing. These envisaged relief efforts have not yet been begun due to a shortage of funding.

U.N. agencies have crafted a consensus-based action plan aimed at alleviating poverty in general and household food insecurity problems in particular, designed to bolster the government’s relief efforts.

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