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RBC Royal Bank RBC Mid-Market M&A March 21, 2019 Insurance Sector Update June 2020 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 2 Current Market Events And Economic Statistics 3 Valuation Trends & Precedent Transactions Table of Contents of Table 4 Appendix A – Overview of RBC’s M&A Capabilities R B C M I D - MARKET M&A | 2 Introduction Section 1 Introduction Situation Overview . The economic landscape and financial markets have gone through a significant change with COVID-19 having a material impact on our lives and businesses in the near term . Many business owners are looking for answers as to the interim impacts of the virus on business values, lending, the Situational Overview overall M&A market and their own unique situation . The heightened anxiety around the virus is affecting Canada and many of the clients we serve in unprecedented ways - RBC Mid-Market M&A (“RBC M&A”) remains focused on helping you navigate this extraordinary situation . This presentation is meant to provide an overview of the current market situation and the impacts we are seeing in the insurance industry. The document includes relevant macro and insurance market information, valuation statistics, Update Overview and commentary for various subsectors, including: ‒ Insurance Brokerage, Life Insurance, P&C Insurance, Multi-line Insurance and Reinsurance companies . RBC M&A provides capital market advisory services to mid-sized companies in Canada . RBC M&A has 6 offices across Canada and 30 professionals serving the needs of our clients . RBC is a global financial institution with capabilities, platforms and professionals in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia . RBC is the #1 ranked M&A advisor in Canada and the #2 middle market advisor in North America R B C M I D - MARKET M&A | 4 Current Market Events and Economic Statistics Section 2 Macro Economic Environment Commentary % Change Quarter-over-Quarter in GDP(1) . The global macro economic environment has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in lockdowns across the world 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 45% . The pressure on the economy has been widespread with services sector 35% being impacted by a demand shock as physical distancing keeps consumers and employees at home 25% 20.0% . The physical distancing measures are resulting in an economic decline, which 15% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% has translated into discounted prices for a variety of products 5% . The impact on labour markets is expected to be significant as companies (5%) implement measures to save on costs, including furloughing employees (15%) (8.2%) Unemployment rate is forecasted to reach 12% in 2Q2020 (25%) . It is expected that as the virus is brought under control and physical (35%) (32.0%) distancing measures ease, so will the economic drag (45%) . The Bank of Canada and governments have been quick to respond to the crisis by unveiling a wide range of policies to support companies and their Canadian Unemployment Rate(1) employees manage through this crisis. It is expected that as long as businesses can weather the near-term economic impact, there would be a potential for a return to work for laid-off employees relatively quickly in certain sectors 12.0% Canadian Prime Rate (%)(2) 4.5 9.5% 8.5% 8.1% 7.7% 7.4% 4.0 7.0% 6.3% 3.5 3.0 2.5 1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 4Q2020 1Q2021 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 2.0 Actual Forecast Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 COVID-19 has resulted in a challenging economic environment and an uncertain outlook (1) RBC Economics (2) Capital IQ R B C M I D - MARKET M&A | 6 Valuation Trends & Precedent Transactions Section 3 Trends in the Industry Trends Measures(1) Insurance Companies Are Prepared . New measures have been put in place in response to the increasing . Insurers have gained experience from previous virus impact of COVID-19 on consumers, the industry and the overall economy outbreaks such as SARS and some have introduced Measures include: clauses for epidemics and pandemics into non-life products Reduced Premiums . Driving habits have changed significantly because of the pandemic Employees Compensation . Insurance companies have been adjusting premiums to . An increase in workers claims is expected to surge reflect that change not adequately protected by their employers against exposure driven by essential and front line employee claims who did not receive appropriate protection by their employers against the virus Flexible Payment Options . Some insurers have been exploring flexible and deferred Credit Insurance payment options to help customers facing financial . With the increasing risk of company bankruptcies driven s difficulties as a result of COVID-19’s impact by economic shutdown and supply chain disruption, claims against default on debt payments could increase in the next months No Change in Policies Measure Travel & Event Cancellations . Insurance providers are not expecting to modify current . With major cities imposing shutdowns, social distancing insurance policies in case customers are temporarily using Trends and quarantines, travel and event cancellations have their cars or homes differently during the pandemic surged in the last few weeks . Most of large events and some flight tickets have policies that may cover for cancellations Non-Sufficient Funds Fees (‘NSF’) Waiver . Some insurers are exploring NSF waivers if customers have Market Volatility insufficient funds to cover the premiums . Falling interest rates and market volatility could impact the insurers profitability and earnings . Measures are expected to result in $600 million in savings to consumers Fraud Risk . With companies trying to operate remotely or with partial . Insurers have taken measures to support Canadians and businesses who staff, fraud risk is expected to increase, which would are most adversely affected by COVID-19 trigger an increase in fraud protection claims COVID Could Have a Positive Impact on the Industry . COVID-19 may cause people to reconsider their individual health insurance needs (1) IBC R B C M I D - MARKET M&A | 8 COVID-19 Impact on the Insurance Industry The Insurance Industry has been affected by COVID-19 with uncertainty lying ahead Impact(1,2) . COVID-19 has had a strong impact on the global economy, disrupting supply chains, modifying demand for goods, services, and commodities; and imposing a fundamental change on the daily lives of people around the world . Wide-reaching government policies have been implemented across the globe to slow the coronavirus. These measures have sent massive shock waves through the North American and global economy, bringing many industries to a halt . In 2008/2009, the insurance providers’ revenue and operating income decline was generally sharp, but results recovered fairly quickly coming out of the recession One meaningful difference between now and 2008/2009 is interest rates – Interest rates are far lower compared to the heart of the 2008/2009 financial crisis. While it is expected that the insurance industry is in for a difficult few quarters, the sector is in much better shape than in 2008/2009 and reflects better balance sheets, excess capital positions, and investment quality . Credit deterioration and a declining equity values are expected to affect insurers' financial strength Insurance related pressure such as increased claims, is expected to be a less significant risk factor for the industry as a whole Most business interruption policies have been deemed to only cover losses from physical events and exclude diseases . Life insurers are more at risk than other subsectors, particularly companies with relatively thin capital buffers and significant exposure to financial market volatility through their asset portfolios or product offerings . For non-life insurance companies, social distancing and travel restrictions are expected to lead to an increase in claims, such as credit, bond, mortgage, travel insurance and event cancellation . Overall multiples have declined across the insurance industry, with some verticals being more resilient than others TEV / EBITDA Multiples 20x S&P 500 S&P 500 Insurance (Industry Group) 15x 10x 5x 0x Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Source: Capital IQ (1) RBC Capital Markets – Insurance Observations – April 20th 2020 (2) S&P Global – COVID-19 Will Test Insurers’ Resilience R B C M I D - MARKET M&A | 9 Public Market Valuation All subsectors of the Insurance industry have been affected by COVID-19 Overview(1) . The global COVID-19 pandemic has been labeled by industry participants as one of the most significant and fastest developing credit events . There were certainly direct impacts on the insurance industry visible in 1Q2020, however, it is expected that much of the impact from COVID-19 still lies ahead . Share prices have declined across all subsectors of the insurance industry with some variation to the extent of the decline: U.S and Canadian Life insurance companies were the most affected, with index values declining by more than 28% Insurance Brokers were the least affected by the pandemic, with the index value declining by 5.2% Public Company Share Price Performance by Subsector(2) (3.9%) S&P 500 (5.2%) Insurance Brokers (17.1%) Reinsurance (22.8%) P&C Insurance Companies (23.5%) Multi-line Insurance (23.5%) Multi-line Insurance (28.5%) Canadian Life Insurance (30.7%) U.S Life Insurance Companies Source: Capital IQ (1) RBC Capital Markets – Insurance Observations – May 18th 2020 (2) Share price change between December 31st 2019 and June 23rd 2020 R B C M I D - MARKET M&A | 10 Insurance Brokers Valuation and Recent Market Statistics Share % Change Market Latest 12 Months Net Debt/ Multiple of Latest 12 Months of Company Name Price(1) 52 Week Cap. Value(2) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Revenue EBITDA P/BV(3) Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
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