Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 Statistical summary of fatal multi-engine airliner accidents in 2004 Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 Statistical summary of fatal multi-engine airliner accidents in 2003 Statistical summary of fatal multi-engine airliner accidents in 2004 © Harro Ranter, the Aviation Safety Network January 1, 2005 this publication is available also on http://aviation-safety.net/pubs/ front page photo: non-fatal MD-10 accident at Memphis, December 18, 2003 © Dan Parent, kc10.net Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 by Harro Ranter, aviation-safety.net 2 CONTENTS SUMMARY .............................................................................. 4 SCOPE & DEFINITION .............................................................. 5 2004: ACCIDENT SUMMARY...................................................... 6 2004 IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ........................................... 7 AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS..................................................... 9 COUNTRIES ......................................................................... 10 REGIONS ............................................................................. 12 FLIGHT NATURE.................................................................... 13 FLIGHT PHASE...................................................................... 14 AVIATION SAFETY PRIORITIES................................................ 14 APPENDIX 1 – List of airliner types covered............................... 15 Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 by Harro Ranter, aviation-safety.net 3 SUMMARY The year 2004 was an exceptionally safe one for civil aviation. Statistics show a record low number of 425 airliner accident 1) fatalities as a result of 26 accidents. By comparison, the second-safest year, 1955, recorded 572 fatalities. With regards to the number of accidents, just one year was safer: 2003 when 25 accidents occurred. The decreasing number of accidents is in line with the downward trend that started in 1989. While the number of accidents and fatalities dropped sharply, the survival-rate (percentage of occupants that survived fatal airliner accidents) did not show any progress: on average almost 13% of the occupants survived an accident, which is significantly lower than the 1993-2002 average of 32%. Also in 2004, Canadair's RegionalJet model, in service for over twelve years suffered it's first passenger fatalities in airline service. Despite the fact that 2004 was an extremely safe year, there is a reason for concern in Africa. It was again the most unsafe continent: 27% of all fatal airliner accidents happened in Africa, while the region only accounts for approximately 3 percent of all world aircraft departures. The moving 10-year average trend shows an almost continuous increase in the average number of fatal accidents for the last ten years. On the other hand, trends show a decrease in the number of fatal accidents for North- and South America over the past six years and notably Europe, with just one fatal accident last year. A breakdown by flight nature shows a continuous decrease in the number of scheduled passenger flight accidents over the last five years. On the other hand, the number of cargo plane accidents shows a marked increase. 1) for definitions see the chapter "Scope and definitions" The figures have been compiled using the airliner accident database of the Aviation Safety Network, the Internet leader in aviation safety information. The Aviation Safety Network uses information from authoritative and official sources like NTSB, ICAO etc. The goal of the Aviation Safety Network is to provide everyone with a (professional) interest in aviation with up-to-date, complete and reliable authoritative information on airliner accidents and safety issues. More information: http://aviation-safety.net/ Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 by Harro Ranter, aviation-safety.net 4 SCOPE & DEFINITION The Aviation Safety Network’s Aviation Safety Database (http://aviation- safety.net/database/) covers descriptions of over 10,800 airliner/corporate jet accidents, incidents and hijackings that have occurred since 1945. To be able to analyse data over a 50-year period of time, and to ascertain that the core selection of data is complete, clear and distinctive criteria have to be defined. Thus, the analysis has been limited to airliner accidents using the following definitions: Accident “An occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight until such time as all such persons have disembarked, in which a person on the airplane is fatally injured and the airplane is damaged beyond repair.” Airliner “Commercial multi-engine airplane which, in certificated maximum passenger configuration, is capable of carrying 14 or more passengers.” A list of aircraft types covered can be found in Appendix 1. Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 by Harro Ranter, aviation-safety.net 5 2004: ACCIDENT SUMMARY The year 2004 recorded 26 fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and an all-time low number of 425 fatalities. A detailed description of each accident can be found in Appendix 2. Date Aircraft type Operator Location Fatalities 1 03 JAN Boeing 737-300 Flash Airlines Off Sharm el Sheikh 148 2 13 JAN Yakovlev 40 Uzbekistan Airways Tashkent 37 3 28 JAN Beech 1900 Tassili Airlines Near Ghardaia 1 4 10 FEB Fokker 50 Kish Air Sharjah 43 5 04 MAR Ilyushin 76 Azov-Avia Airlines Baku 3 6 07 MAY Let 410 Air Cush Jiech 6 7 12 MAY Antonov 12 El Magal Aviation near Dalang 1 8 14 MAY Embraer 120 Rico Linhas Aéreas near Manaus 33 9 18 MAY Ilyushin 76 Azal Cargo near Urumqi 7 10 23 MAY Let 410 Blue Bird Aviation near Mwingi 2 11 25 MAY DHC-6 Twin Otter Yeti Airlines near Lukla 3 12 08 JUN HS-748 Gabon Express near Libreville 19 13 26 JUN Lisunov Li-2 FLA RF Moskva-Myachkovo 2 14 12 JUL Convair CV-440 Dodita Air Cargo off Beef Island 1 15 29 JUL DHC-6 Twin Otter Airlines of PNG near Ononge 2 16 13 AUG Convair CV-580 Air Tahoma Cincinnati 1 17 17 AUG Beechcraft 99 Alpine Aviation near Neihart 2 18 05 OCT Antonov 12 Sarit Airlines near Higlig 4 19 14 OCT Boeing 747-200 MK Airlines Halifax 7 20 14 OCT Canadair CRJ200 Pinnacle Airlines Jefferson City 2 21 15 OCT Douglas DC-3 Aerovanguardia near Medellín 3 22 19 OCT Jetstream 32 Corporate Airlines near Kirksville 13 23 18 NOV Jetstream 31 Venezolana Caracas 4 24 21 NOV Canadair CRJ200 China Yunnan Airlines Baotou 53+1 25 30 NOV MD-82 Lion Airlines Solo City 26 26 11 DEC Embraer 110 NHR Táxi-Aéreo Uberaba 2+1 425+2 *) *) 425 fatalities of airplane occupants plus two fatalities on the ground Other fatal airliner hull-loss occurrences: Date Aircraft type Operator Location Fatalities 1 24 AUG Tupolev 134 Volga-Aviaexpress near Buchalki 44 2 24 AUG Tupolev 154 Sibir Airlines near Gluboki 46 515+2 Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 by Harro Ranter, aviation-safety.net 6 2004 IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE The year 2004 was one of the safest years ever. The number of fatal airliner accidents of 26 was one up compared to 2003, but is perfectly in line with the continuing downward trend of the last ten years. The number of fatalities (425) was an all-time low since 1945. The figures exclude non-accident occurrences (hijackings, sabotage etc.). • The 2004 death toll of 425 was below the 1974-2003 average death toll of 1348 casualties • The 2004 death toll of 425 was below the 1994-2003 average death toll of 1191 casualties • The 2004 number of occupants involved in fatal airliner accidents of 610 was far lower than the 1993-2002 average of 1586 • The 2004 fatality rate (percentage of occupants killed in fatal airliner accidents) of 70% was lower than the 1993-2002 average of 75% • The 2004 number of 26 fatal airliner accidents was far below the 1974-2003 average number of fatal airliner accidents of 48,8 per year • The 2004 number of 26 fatal airliner accidents was far below the 1994-2003 average number of fatal airliner accidents of 42 per year 2500 80 70 2000 60 1500 50 40 1000 30 20 500 10 0 0 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 fatalities accidents • The 2004 number of fatal jet airliner accidents of 8 was below the 1974-2003 average of 14,2 accidents per year • The 2004 number of fatal prop airliner accidents of 15 was on the 1974-2003 average of 22 accidents per year • The 2004 number of 3 fatal piston airliner accident was far below the 1974-2003 average of 9,1 accidents • The 2004 number of 3 fatal piston airliner accident was below the 1994-2003 average of 3,7 accidents Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 by Harro Ranter, aviation-safety.net 7 80 jet 70 prop 60 piston 50 40 30 20 10 0 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 fatal airliner accidents by propulsion Airliner Accident Statistics 2004 by Harro Ranter, aviation-safety.net 8 AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS Although the total number of accidents does not say anything about the safety of an aircraft model or manufacturer, a few things about 2004 must be noted. For instance Canadair’s RegionalJet model, in service for over twelve years now suffered it’s first passenger fatality accident in airline service when a Chinese CRJ200 crashed at Baotau, killing all 53 on board. Manufacturer 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Aérospatiale / BAC 0 0 0 0 1 0 Airbus 0 0 0 1 2 0 Antonov 2 3 5 2 5 3 ATR 0 0 2 0 0 2 BAC 0 0 1 0 0 0 Beechcraft 2 2 1 1 1 3 Boeing 2 3 7 6 3 5 BAe/Avro 2 1 0 1 2 1 Canadair