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The London School of Economics and Political Science Essays in Applied The London School of Economics and Political Science Essays in Applied Econometrics Cristian Huse A thesis submitted to the Department of Economics of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London, October 2008 UMI Number: U615279 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615279 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Contents 1 How Do Incumbents React to Entry: Evidence from Differentiated Product Mar­ kets 16 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 16 1.2 The Brazilian Domestic Airline M arket ..................................................................................... 17 1.2.1 Industry O v erv iew ............................................................................................................. 17 1.2.2 The Entry Pattern of G o l ................................................................................................ 18 1.3 How Incumbents React to E n try ............................................................................................... 20 1.3.1 Preemptive and Post-Entry Reactions ......................................................................... 20 1.3.2 Product Differentiation and Asymmetric Responses ................................................... 21 1.3.3 Further Particulars and Data Availability ................................................................... 22 1.4 The D a t a .......................................................................................................................................... 22 1.5 Empirical Strategy ......................................................................................................................... 23 1.6 Estimation Results and A nalysis ............................................................................................... 28 1.6.1 Incumbents Do React Preemptively Using P rices ...................................................... 28 1.6.2 Product Differentiation Might Soften Price Responses ............................................ 31 1.6.3 Price Responses Are Not Cost-Driven ......................................................................... 32 1.6.4 Excess Capacity? ................................................................................................................. 33 1.6.5 Network Adjustment and Product Repositioning ...................................................... 34 1.7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 34 l.A Appendix: Variable D escription................................................................................................... 36 l.B Appendix: Endogeneity Issues ...................................................................................................... 40 Contents 2 l.B.l Identification ..................................................................................................................... 40 l.B.2 Data Sources and Construction of Instrum ents ....................................................... 44 1.B.3 Estimation Strategy and R esults ................................................................................. 46 R eferences ................................................................................................................................................... 51 References 51 2 Term Structure Modelling with Observable State Variables 56 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 56 2.2 Yield Curve E s tim a tio n .............................................................................................................. 59 2.2.1 Static M e th o d s .................................................................................................................. 59 2.2.2 Nelson-Siegel and Beyond .............................................................................................. 61 2.3 Term Structure M odelling ........................................................................................................... 62 2.3.1 A Model with State Variables ........................................................................................ 63 2.3.2 Implementation .................................................................................................................. 65 2.4 Finite-Sample Performance ........................................................................................................ 67 2.5 A p p lic atio n ..................................................................................................................................... 6 8 2.5.1 The D a t a ........................................................................................................................... 6 8 2.5.2 On The Economic Determinants of the Yield Curve ............................................. 71 2.5.3 In-Sample Analysis ........................................................................................................... 72 2.5.4 Incorporating Economic R elations .............................................................................. 74 2.5.5 Out-of-Sample Analysis .................................................................................................. 77 2.A Appendix A: Covariance Matrix Derivation ............................................................................ 81 2.B Appendix B: Robustness Check Using the CRSP D a t a ......................................................... 83 2.B.1 The D ata ........................................................................................................................... 84 2.B.2 In-Sample Analysis ........................................................................................................... 8 6 2.B.3 Out-of-Sample A nalysis .................................................................................................. 91 References ................................................................................................................................................... 98 References 98 3 Estimating The ‘Coordinated Effects’ of Mergers 105 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 105 3.2 The Network Server Industry ..................................................................................................... 108 3.2.1 Network Servers .............................................................................................................. 108 Contents 3 3.2.2 Consolidation in the Network Server Industry ............................................................. 109 3.2.3 The HP-Compaq Merger ................................................................................................... I l l 3.3 Evaluating the Incentives to Collude ......................................................................................... 112 3.3.1 Qualitative Analysis of Coordinated Effects in the HP-Compaq Merger .............. 112 3.3.2 The Benchmark Model ...................................................................................................... 115 3.3.3 Extensions .......................................................................................................................... 119 3.4 D a t a ................................................................................................................................................... 123 3.5 Model Im plem entation................................................................................................................... 124 3.5.1 Demand E s tim a tio n .......................................................................................................... 125 3.5.2 Identification Strategy ...................................................................................................... 127 3.5.3 Estimating Discount Factors .............................................................................................. 128 3.6 R esults............................................................................................................................................... 130 3.6.1 Demand E s tim a tio n .......................................................................................................... 130 3.6.2 Discount Factors ................................................................................................................ 132 3.6.3 Evaluating the Incentives to Collude ............................................................................ 134 References ..................................................................................................................................................
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