UK £2 Issue 212, Year 5 June 30, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Erdogan’s Implications Tunis festival’s eclipse after of US-Iran ‘Dance with Istanbul vote? showdown dignity’

Pages 6,7,12-13 Page 4-5,16 Page 23 No breakthroughs likely after Bahrain conference, despite US optimism ► The remarks of the IMF’s Lagarde, who attended the Bahrain conference, appear to be at odds with Kushner’s economy-first approach.

Mamoon Alabbasi deal, which has been the subject of much regional and international scepticism, receives regional back- London ing, it is hard to see how the eco- nomic plan could be implemented. hite House adviser The United States, which has Jared Kushner hailed not announced any funding for the US-sponsored con- the plan, is looking for substantial W ference held in Bahrain financial contributions from Gulf on the economic aspects of a Mid- countries but it remains unknown dle East peace deal as a “tremen- how much of that would be forth- dous success” but observers said coming. that no breakthroughs — whether Saudi Finance Minister Moham- political or economic — are expect- med al-Jadaan said while Riyadh ed in securing a deal between the would support “whatever brings Israelis and Palestinians. prosperity to this region,” it was The conference was attended by important that such measures are government officials from seven driven by the private sector. Arab countries: Bahrain, Saudi It may prove difficult to attract Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, private investments before secur- Qatar, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. ing a peace deal. The Palestinian Authority boycott- “Improving economic condi- ed the workshop. tions and attracting lasting in- “After extensive review, peo- vestment to the region depends ple were very positive about [the ultimately on being able to reach economic plan] and considered it a peace agreement,” said Chris- Challenging task. White House senior adviser Jared Kushner speaks during US-sponsored Middle achievable,” Kushner told Asharq tine Lagarde, managing director of East economic conference in Manama, June 25. (AFP) Al-Awsat newspaper. the International Monetary Fund. Kushner’s proposal envisions “Peace, political stability and re- the creation of an international in- establishment of trust between all that the US plan could benefit “The Trump administration has a place in future history books, it vestment fund of $50 billion, half the parties involved are essential them financially at a time when, shut down aid programmes that will be for exposing the limits of of which would go to the Palestin- prerequisites to the success of any they say, they’re facing economic support every one of the goals in Arab-Israeli rapprochement,” read ian territories, while the other half economic plan for the region.” hardships because of Washington’s this Palestinian economic plan. a report by the International Crisis would be divided among Egypt, The remarks of Lagarde, who at- policies, including cuts in Palestin- It is now pushing others to invest Group (ICG). Jordan and Lebanon over ten years. tended the Bahrain conference, ap- ian aid and support to Israeli occu- where we have divested. What do “Israel’s overt acceptance in the The economic plan is meant to pear to be at odds with Kushner’s pation. you think the response is going to region requires it to resolve its con- be coupled with a political deal, economy-first approach. EU dele- “If the US is so concerned about be?” he posted on Twitter. flict with the Palestinians,” the re- which Washington has yet to un- gates at the workshop did not seem Palestinian well-being, then why Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin port said. veil, but US officials suggested that to see eye to eye with Kushner. did they carry out these punitive Netanyahu voiced support for the Speaking to Agence France- would be made public after the re- “Many of them feel a bit awk- measures against us?” said senior conference but the Bahrain event Presse, senior ICG analyst Eliza- run of the Israeli elections in Sep- ward about the economic part of Palestine Liberation Organisation did not spark much discussion in beth Dickinson said: “It would be tember. the American peace plan,” wrote official Hanan Ashrawi. Israeli media, even though Israeli highly premature to expect any- A political solution is going to be Haaretz correspondent Noa Lan- “Some of [the economic projects journalists and non-government thing beyond flirtation without especially difficult to reach under dau. “As the Americans in Bahrain mentioned in the conference] have figures attended the workshop. meaningful change on the ground.” the Trump administration, which speak of theoretical investments been talked about for 25 years now. The attendance of the confer- “The Gulf message is actually appears to have broken from the worth tens of billions of dollars in Why haven’t they materialised? ence by Israeli nationals was de- somewhat clear in my view: Israel previous international consensus the Palestinian economy and Pal- What’s stopping them? The Israeli cried by Arab critics as a form of Ar- could be a useful, stable ally in a in favour of Palestinian statehood estinian society, European taxpay- military occupation. It’s the el- ab-Israeli “normalisation,” which volatile region but only if there is as the way for a resolution to the ers are picking up the bulk of the ephant they left out of the circus seemed to point to the unchanged an agreement with the Palestin- Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Arab tab for humanitarian projects in when they went to Bahrain,” Sam terms of the debate in many as- ians.” states reiterated their insistence on the field in the meantime, while Bahour, a Palestinian-American pects of Arab-Israeli peacemaking. the two-state solution as outlined the Americans have only been cut- business consultant in Ramallah, A number of observers, however, Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy by the Saudi-sponsored Arab peace ting and cutting funding to the Pal- told The New York Times. said the conference did not really Managing Editor and Online Editor initiative as the basis for a durable estinians.” Kushner’s plan drew criticism make any new inroads towards of The Arab Weekly. settlement. Palestinian officials and com- from former US Ambassador to Is- normalisation. Unless the political aspect of the mentators dismissed the notion rael Dan Shapiro. “If the Bahrain workshop secures P2,8,11 Tribal feuds pushing many Iraqis to leave Basra

Azhar Al-Rubaie aawie, a former resident of Basra “degga ashairiya” (tribal warning). Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani calling on rest those who practice the ‘degga who did not wish to name the rival It refers to an old custom where Iraqi volunteers to take up arms ashairiya’ and punish them in ac- clan. “They killed two members of gun-carrying members of a certain against the Islamic State (ISIS). cordance with the law, which rang- Basra our clan. I decided to flee with my tribe gather and shoot at the house Many of the weapons came from es from a 15-year prison sentence, family to save our lives,” he said. of a member of an opposing tribe Iran. to a life term or even the death pen- ribal feuds are leading many “The tribes own a countless until he agrees to come out and set- Once the fight against ISIS was alty, but we have not applied any residents of the southern number of weapons, many types tle a dispute through negotiations. over, many of the militiamen who of these punishments so far,” said Iraqi city of Basra to leave that the government itself does not If he refuses to negotiate or no set- belonged to tribes went back home police spokesman Colonel Bassem T their homes and resettle have,” said Almzeraawie. “These tlement is reached, more violence with their weapons. Ghanem. in other provinces and sometimes feuds make us unable to live in is expected, sometimes leading to “House for sale” signs have be- Tribal leaders have suggested a outside the country altogether. peace.” fatalities. come a frequent sight in Basra. Not solution. They want the govern- Since the 2003 US-led invasion Almzeraawie first fled to Turkey In the absence of law and order many people in the province have ment to negotiate with them. that toppled Saddam Hussein, trib- and travelled across Europe to set- — or at least of faith in the judicial faith in the government’s ability to “We talked to the government al leaders have gained in strength tle in Germany. “I chose to go to system — more and more Iraqis are exert authority over the powerful many times and we proposed to and capitalised on the state’s weak- Germany because I heard that there resorting to tribal justice. tribal leaders. them that they give to tribe mem- ness. With anti-government sen- is a safe life there,” he said. His wife, The Ministry of Interior has “The local or federal security au- bers ten employment opportunities timent increasing in Basra over Nour Mohammed, said the family sought to curb the practice of “deg- thorities could not enforce the law for each batch of 100 weapons that the past year due to poor services, had suffered a lot in Basra. ga ashairiya” by including it under to eliminate tribal conflicts,” said the tribes hand over to the govern- many tribal leaders have begun to Security sources said there has article four of Iraq’s anti-terrorism Ameen Wahhab Basra, a member ment,” said Basra-based Sheikh act with impunity. been a rise in the number of peo- act, but with no success. of Basra’s provincial council. The Dhurgham al-Maliki. One former Basra resident said ple killed or wounded due to tribal Basra police chief Rashidde Fleih state cannot even protect its own “This would have reduced tribal he and his family had been pushed feuds in the county’s south, espe- recently told reporters that “some land from being taken over by conflicts in the city of Basra but un- to leave the city out of fear for their cially in Basra, where security forc- tribes in Basra own heavy weapons tribes, he added. fortunately the government turned safety. es have little presence. No specific that are equivalent to two military Security officials admit that gov- a deaf ear.” “I belong to a clan called ‘Mz- numbers have been released by au- divisions.” ernment efforts to stop tribal trans- eraa’, which has a dispute with thorities. Tribal access to heavy weaponry gressions have failed. Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance another clan,” said Husam Almzer- Residents point to an increase of came after the 2014 fatwa of Grand “We initiated a campaign to ar- journalist based in Iraq. 2 June 30, 2019 Cover Story Bahrain Conference With Manama, the Americans have put the cart before the horse

been difficult to do, because ing. Bahrain, its king, its govern- there exist many types of ment and people have found investments. You have national themselves to be the targets of Adli Sadek investment, foreign investment, bitter criticism, threatening to direct investment, financial undo the country’s long-stand- investment, investment in ing support for the Palestinian human resources, short-term, cause. No expression of good he Bahrain workshop long-term, slow-moving, intentions from Bahrain or from or the “Prosperity for quick-return, social, strategic the other attending Arab delega- Peace” conference is and development investments tions was enough to wipe away Accommodating hosts. Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad over. Because the and many more than that. The the embarrassment. bin Isa al-Khalifa (C) attends the closing session of the US-sponsored event had been motives for investments are also The Arab delegations at the (AFP) Middle East economic conference in Manama, June 26. initiated upside multiple. You can invest, for workshop may have remained Tdown, no one knows or will example, in order to create social steadfast in their supportive know how it ended. capital, to build an economy and positions for the usual terms of Palestinians remain Some of the attendees, boost it, to provide a skilled and reference framing the peace especially the businessmen and specialised labour force and, process, and they know that those who took part in the event more closely to our topic here, to such a workshop will not be able key player in Middle in that capacity, might have ensure political and economic to build up new elements for a thought they were taking an stability. solution by sneaking behind the anticipatory step motivated by So, in light of all these deter- back of politics. But their mere their desire to make profitable minants, what political situation attendance has placed them in East peace dynamics investments once some kind of was targeted to be stabilised the wrong position, even though peace is achieved. They based through boosting its economy, White House adviser Jared refugees. their thinking on an idea that is such that it required holding a Kushner has attempted to As far as Kushner is con- still debatable — that the United workshop or a conference to alleviate their embarrassment by cerned, there will be no Palestin- States is the only power capable examine the mechanisms, referring to “the Arab peace Kamel Hawwash ian capital in Jerusalem follow- of bringing about a settlement in modalities and sizes of invest- initiative” as still a valid element ing Trump’s recognition of the the Middle East. After all, ments required to achieve the of the peace process. It would be city as Israel’s capital. The only America is the main backer of desired objectives? useful to remind everyone he “Peace to Prosper- element that Israel and Kushner Israel and the positions of the What preceded the American- concerned that Kushner’s words ity” conference, will, therefore, take from the current US administration are sponsored Bahrain workshop are meaningless in light of the referred to as the Arab Peace Initiative is “normal- consistent with those of the was not encouraging at all. There positions the United States and Manama workshop, isation.” current Israeli government. This is no disagreement here that Israeli Prime Minister has concluded with Israeli and Arab businessmen idea can be considered as one of when a mediator unilaterally Binyamin Netanyahu’s Trump administra- mingled and for the first time the many assumptions that decides to throw out constants have taken. Ttion personnel Jared Kushner Israeli journalists were allowed would weaken the credibility of essential files and Perhaps the and Jason Greenblatt claiming it into Bahrain. However, the such a workshop and undermine issues that are vital simplest way to to have been a success, and Americans had hoped to have its practicality, by being an to one side and then It won’t do the describe what the those opposed to it decrying its wider participation from Arab argument against it rather than uses the logic of Palestinians any United States has content and outcomes. states and at a more senior level. for it. coercion, it is good to done is to use the The question now, just as it The absence of the Palestinians It is known that investment doing nothing but unanimously common was before the workshop, is and their call on Arab states to and prosperity are based on a disqualifying reject the Manama expression “to where next for the Palestin- boycott succeeded in limiting balanced political settlement itself as mediator. workshop as long put the cart ians. the participation of Arab states and not vice versa. I have said And yet, this is as they remain before the horse.” The workshop was heavily and in scuppering the participa- repeatedly that the first thing exactly what US divided. Neither the cart criticised in many quarters, tion of Israeli officials. needed to secure investment and President Donald nor the horse will especially by Palestinian What Palestinians can take prosperity is the appropriate Trump did. He be able to move leadership and civil society. It away from Manama is that they environment. If this fact is removed the Jerusalem forward. But above was boycotted by the Palestinian remain the key player in the uncontested at the level of file from the negotiation table, everything else, it won’t do leadership and by all but a dynamics of peace in the Middle disputes in any given place, it then the Palestinian refugee the Palestinians any good to handful of business people. East. The message that the becomes a basic and essential issue, then part of the illegal unanimously reject the Manama US President Donald Trump Americans heard loud and clear requirement in the case of the Israeli settlements file and then workshop as long as they remain was accused of putting the cart was that talking economic peace conflict in the Palestinian the whole issue of illegal settle- divided. before the horse in offering the remains just that, talk, until a territories. The reverse logic of ments. The Trump administra- That the Palestinians agreed to “Peace to Prosperity” workshop political solution acceptable to starting with investments and tion continued this same trend boycott the event is a good thing, in Manama as the economic part both the Palestinians and Israel prosperity is linked throughout and withdrew the whole issue of but what is even more important of the so-called “Deal of the can be achieved. history with the experiences of the occupied Syrian Golan is to end their division and agree Century” before outlining the The goal of normalisation, military invasions. Heights from the table and on a strategy of national action, political part of the deal. which Israel craves and It was remarkable how often offered it to Israel just like one that is realistic and serious The argument was the Americans the expression “investing in the that. and not narcissistic and embel- lished with unrealistic promises that it would be Kushner claimed support, is predi- Palestinian territories and in Palestine’s reaction to the extremely doubt- cated on the their Arab environments to bring workshop was a rare occasion for that do not match the reality on ful for those who the political plan would implementation about prosperity” was repeated, its people to agree on a position. the ground. In politics, a meagre may be interested not be based on the of the Arab Peace but not a single economic expert The attending audience at the policy brings shame to itself. in investing in Arab Peace Initiative Initiative, at the conference has spelled out workshop was embarrassed and the Palestinian but would be especially the the type and size of this implicit even the low-level official Adli Sadek is a Palestinian writer areas to do so somewhere between creation of a investment. It shouldn’t have representations were embarrass- and politician. unless they could the initiative and what sovereign, be assured of a Israel’s position is. independent stable situation into Palestinian state which they would with East Jerusalem as invest. its capital and a just Who in their right mind solution for the Palestinian would invest in Hebron while refugees. the centre is a ghost town, The Palestinians’ next destina- settlements grow and clashes tion is closer to home. It is to between the Palestinians and finally end the division that has the Israeli forces, which erupt caused incalculable damage to regularly, could suddenly the cause. The Manama work- escalate into a full confronta- shop united the Palestinians in tion, closing the city and its rejection and they must build therefore its business activity? on this. Who would invest in the Jordan Talk of economic prosperity Valley, which Israel plans to seems a pipe dream while the keep, but that the Palestinians Palestinian Authority teeters on see as their land bank? the verge of collapse due to a Kushner, Greenblatt and US lack of funds following Ameri- Ambassador to Israel David ca’s decision to cut all funding to Friedman gave a series of the Palestinians and Israel’s interviews as participants set off withholding of taxes it collects to Bahrain claiming the political on its behalf. issues would not be discussed. The Palestinian ship needs to be However, Friedman expressed steadied before it can sail towards his support for Israeli Prime peace and prosperity, while the Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Israeli bulldozer needs taming if pre-election promise to annex peace is to be realised. The parts of the West Bank, stating current American administration his country has “a right” to do can play a vital role in this, but so. can it end its bias in favour of Kushner claimed the political Israel for the sake of peace? There plan would not be based on the is no sign that it will. Arab Peace Initiative but would be somewhere between it and Kamel Hawwash is a what Israel’s position is. This is British-based Palestinian code for a “no” to a Palestinian university professor and Sorting out priorities. A Palestinian rides a cart carrying sacks of food aid provided by UNRWA in the state and “no return” for writer. town of Rafah, during a general strike against the US-led conference in Bahrain. (AFP) June 30, 2019 3 News & Analysis Jerusalem Summit No consensus in Israel-US-Russia summit over Iran role in Syria

The Arab Weekly staff us than many believe.” Patrushev rebuffed US and Israeli attempts to isolate Iran and urged London showing “restraint” towards Teh- ran. srael hosted a trilateral summit “Any attempts to make Tehran with the United States and Rus- look like the main threat to global sia in Jerusalem to discuss “re- security, to put it in the same basket I gional security” with a focus on as [the Islamic State] or any other the role of Iran in Syria but public terror group are unacceptable. Iran statements from the participating has been contributing a lot to the officials indicated that they have fight against terrorism in Syria, help- failed to reach a consensus. ing to stabilise the situation,” said The summit was held on June 25 Patrushev. and attended by Israeli Prime Min- He called on Israel and the United Searching for common ground. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (C-R), US national security ister Binyamin Netanyahu, US national States to encourage a political set- adviser John Bolton (C-L), Russian Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev (R) and Israeli security adviser John Bolton, Rus- tlement in Syria. Iran and Russia are National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat take part in a trilateral summit in Jerusalem, June 25. (AFP) sian Secretary of the Security Coun- backing Syrian President Bashar cil Nikolai Patrushev and Israeli Assad against rebel forces. National Security Adviser Meir Ben- “We call upon our partners to couple of months in a long series of ment on how or when that would Hezbollah assets near the Israeli Shabbat. exercise restraint and to take efforts unprovoked and unjustifiable attacks,” take place. border. to alleviate the concerns and ten- Bolton said. “We are determined to remove Observers said that summit isn’t sions. Efforts should be made to The United States accused Iran Iran from Syria. The two superpow- likely to result in major policy changes Observers said the decrease tensions between Israel of shooting down a US drone in ers, together with Israel, agree that in Syria. summit isn’t likely to and Iran,” Patrushev said. international airspace over the Strait we must aspire to the goal in which “I doubt even there is going to be result in major policy Bolton said Iran is refusing to of Hormuz earlier in June. Iran said all foreign forces that have entered any serious limitation of the Iranians changes in Syria. respond to a US offer to negotiate. the US drone was flying over Iranian Syria since 2011 leave Syria,” Net- in Syria as a result of this meeting “The (US) president has held the airspace. anyahu said. although the Russians may continue Netanyahu called for the three door open to real negotiations,” Patrushev said Russian intelligence “The issue will also be discussed to acquiesce in Israeli strikes at the countries to agree on expelling for- Bolton told journalists in Jerusalem. has concluded the US drone had between Presidents [Donald] Trump Iranians so long as Russian material eign forces from neighbouring Syria. “In response, Iran’s silence has been entered Iranian airspace. and [Vladimir] Putin. The US and or especially personnel are not directly He stressed that Israel would not deafening,” he added. “I have information from the Russian presidents are expected to harmed by it,” Gideon Remez, an allow Iran to establish a permanent Bolton also warned that “all options defence ministry of the Russian meet on the sidelines of the G20 associate fellow at the Harry S. Tru- military presence there. He said remain on the table” if Iran exceeds Federation that this drone was in summit in Japan. man Institute in Jerusalem, told removing Iranian forces from Syria the uranium enrichment limit under Iranian airspace,” Russian news Patrushev said Russia is working Xinhua news agency. will “create a more stable Middle the 2015 deal. agencies quoted Patrushev as tell- to address the issue with Iran. Teh- “For the time being, there has not East.” The summit came amid escalating ing reporters in Jerusalem. ran denies plans to have permanent been a direct clash. So the Russians Bolton said “the United States tensions between the United States Patrushev said Russia pays “spe- troops in Syria. Both Iran and Russia are not seeking a confrontation with would very much like to get rid of and Iran in the Arabian Gulf. The cial attention to ensuring Israel’s say their presence in Syria is based Israel; they have no reason to, but foreign forces from Syria,” in a ref- United States accused Iran of involve- security” but stressed that Iran “was on an invitation of the Assad regime. they are more committed to the Iran- erence to Iran. Bolton said the Iranian ment in a series of attacks in the and remains our ally and partner.” Patrushev said that Israeli air strikes Assad-Hezbollah axis than they are forces are “a problem in Syria.” He Gulf, charges that were denied by Netanyahu said that all three par- against Iranian military targets in to Israel and if they have to make a said there was “a wider basis for Tehran. ties agree that Iranian forces should Syria were “unwelcome” but Israel choice, I think it will go in that direc- cooperation between the three of “Iran has engaged over the past leave Syria but there was no agree- has vowed to continue targeting tion,” added Remez.

Viewpoint In trilateral Jerusalem summit, laudable effort to address Syria

Washington and not Israel. enemies, domestic and foreign. in Paris a meeting of the US- and reckon with those interests, I Moscow’s relationship This recognition, embraced with sponsored “small group” to plan doubt we can achieve any tangible with Netanyahu is close, but varying degrees of enthusiasm the next steps in the campaign result” in terms of regional Geoffrey Aronson it is an intimacy based upon in Moscow, Jerusalem and against the Syrian government. security, the Russian Security anodyne realpolitik, especially Washington, forms the agreed Moscow, like Jerusalem Council secretary warned. regarding Syria. Moscow’s foundation for their dialogue. and in continuing contrast to The series of bilateral and he top US, Russian policy coordination with Israel has gone further than Washington, is clear-minded trilateral meetings in Jerusalem and Israeli security Jerusalem enables Israel to most of Syria’s neighbours in about its interests. Viewed offered an opportunity for the officials met in contest Iran’s and Hezbollah’s restoring the pre-war status quo from the Kremlin, Syria, with security chiefs to clarify and Jerusalem. The development of an offensive ante – reinstituting the UN- Moscow’s vital assistance, is on reaffirm these policies rather unprecedented military infrastructure in Syria. monitored frontier in the Golan its way to restoring sovereign than to establish a basis for summit brought This partnership, assiduously Heights and holding Damascus, control over its entire territory, changing them. No agreed-upon Ttogether US national security maintained by close coordination as Syria’s recognised sovereign, and the responsibility of the protocol was issued. Duelling adviser John Bolton and coun- between Netanyahu and Russian responsible for continuing international community is to tweets and press conferences, terparts Nikolai Patrushev, President Vladimir Putin, has security threats posed by Syria’s facilitate rather than obstruct that combined with an evocative visit secretary of the Russian Security been pursued with ongoing wartime allies emanating from continuing effort. by Bolton to the Jordan Valley, Council, and Meir Ben-Shabbat, success since the Russian within the country. In addition to Assad’s triumph, where he was treated to an Israeli head of Israel’s National Security decision to intervene militarily in Washington, which famously all three agree, if not for the same Defence Forces security briefing Council. September 2015. called upon Assad to “go” in reasons, that the deployments promoting Israel’s permanent The unusual meeting of the Notwithstanding their many August 2011, has the most and influence of Iran and its occupation, offered a less three officials reflects first and differences – from North Korea trouble reconciling itself to associated militias in Syria must promising picture of the meetings foremost Israel’s favoured to election interference — on Assad’s victory. The Trump be constrained. Israel is a vocal hosted by Netanyahu. standing in both Washington and Syria at least there is a measure White House has been forced proponent of this view. It sees Trump’s increasingly personal Moscow, particularly when it of agreement that could form the by its battlefield and political Iranian influence across the battle with the ayatollah and the comes to policy towards Syria and foundation for a more unified shortcomings to scale down its frontier as an unacceptable threat opening round of the so-called Iran — two hot button conflicts international effort to chart the ambitions. The United States to Israeli security. Moscow, in “Deal of the Century” in Bahrain at the top of the international next stages of the brutal conflict. reluctantly recognises that there contrast, while sympathetic to all but overshadowed the closely security agenda. “I believe that there is a is no military option to oust the Israel’s concerns, recognises planned agenda in Jerusalem. The tripartite agenda for the wider basis for cooperation [in regime and that Assad is part Iran’s important contribution This is unfortunate. The region meetings was coordinated by Syria] between the three of us of the postwar equation. Even to the victory over the Islamic can benefit from the diplomacy Israel. This initiative places Israel than many believe,” observed as officials were meeting in State (ISIS) and the international of the old-fashioned kind – quiet, as something of a broker between Netanyahu as the security Jerusalem, Washington convened legality of its presence. But out operating best in the shadows, Washington and Moscow, summit commenced on June 25. of elementary self-interest, reflecting an interest in progress whose bilateral relationship is The Israeli prime minister added Russia too prefers to see based upon consensual win-win frosty when it isn’t downright that the meeting, the first of Iranian influence in the country outcomes that reduce rather contentious. national security advisers from all The initiative places curtailed. Reducing Iran’s than exacerbate the chances of Washington views Israel as a three countries, provides “a real Israel as something of provocative footprint is also a a conflict. Syria is an unlikely vital partner in its increasingly opportunity… particularly in Syria prerequisite to restoring effective forum for the successful practice volatile global campaign of to establish a basis for further a broker between Syrian sovereignty. of diplomacy’s fine arts, but “maximum pressure” against Iran, cooperation. Washington and “We understand the concerns Washington, Jerusalem, and notably in Syria. Indeed, given Notwithstanding their Moscow, whose that Israel has and want those Moscow should be cheered on in the success of Prime Minister differences, there is a shared threats to be eliminated,” noted their efforts to do so. Binyamin Netanyahu’s non-stop understanding in all three bilateral relationship Patrushev, while adding that “one campaign against the ayatollahs, capitals that Syrian President is frosty when it isn’t should also take the national Geoffrey Aronson is a it is not clear at all that the real Bashar Assad and more interests of other regional nations non-resident scholar at the energy for Washington’s growing importantly the system he downright into consideration. Middle East Institute in effort against Iran emanates from represents have prevailed over its contentious. “If we do not… acknowledge Washington. 4 June 30, 2019 News & Analysis US-Iran Showdown Iran and US approach ‘end of diplomacy’, war of words escalates after new sanctions

Thomas Seibert While Iran and the United States were heaping insults upon each other, the main sticking point of Istanbul the confrontation remained un- changed. Trump wants Iran to ac- s Iran and the United cept stricter rules for its nuclear States are approaching programme than the ones imposed the end of the “path to di- by the 2015 international agree- A plomacy,” European pow- ment that the United States aban- ers are urging the two sides to start doned last year. talks. Tehran rejects Trump’s demands US President Donald Trump, and wants an end to economic who abandoned the international sanctions by the United States. Iran nuclear deal with Tehran last year, has announced that it will deliber- threatened to obliterate parts of ately violate limits of the nuclear Iran if it attacked “anything Ameri- deal, formally known as the Joint can,” in a new war of words in Comprehensive Plan of Action which Tehran condemned the US (JCPOA). The two countries, which administration, saying it had been do not have diplomatic relations, struck with a “mental incapabil- have few diplomatic channels that i t y.” could cool the crisis. Washington imposed additional, Military tensions in the Arabian largely symbolic sanctions against Gulf have brought the region to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- the brink of war. Iran shot down a lah Ali Khamenei and other senior US drone and Trump said he had figures and said punitive measures called off a retaliatory air strike against Foreign Minister Moham- with minutes to spare, saying too mad Javad Zarif would follow. many people would have been France, one of the European killed. powers that want to keep the “Any attack by Iran on anything Iran deal intact, said it would ask American will be met with great Trump to suspend some sanctions and overwhelming force. In some on Iran to allow negotiations to areas, overwhelming will mean defuse the crisis. French President obliteration,” Trump tweeted. Ira- Emmanuel Macron said the United nian President Hassan Rohani said Iran announced in May that it was “Iran runs the risk of losing the promises, in this case, the INSTEX States should give “negotiations a the White House’s actions bore suspending two of its 2015 pledges diplomatic and political support alternative payment method.” chance.” signs of “mental incapability,” ac- and gave the remaining JCPOA par- of Europe,” Fathollah-Nejad said. Farhang Jahanpour, an Iranian A meeting of Iran with Euro- cording to the BBC Monitoring ticipants — Europe, China and Rus- “They could be pushing things too academic and member of Kellogg pean powers, China and Russia in Service. Tehran’s Foreign Min- sia — a two-month ultimatum to far.” Europe did not know how to College at the University of Oxford, Vienna, Austria, did not produce a istry spokesman Abbas Mousavi help it circumvent US sanctions or deal with Iran’s July 7 deadline, he said Europe should take Iran’s breakthrough. Iran said European tweeted that US sanctions against it would abandon two more com- said. warnings seriously. Writing in an countries offered too little at the Khamenei and Zarif meant “the mitments. Senior officials from Iran, France, email in response to questions, Ja- last-ditch moment on June 29 to permanent closure of the path to Tehran initially said it would Germany, Britain, China and Rus- hanpur underlined that Tehran had persuade Iran to back off from its diplomacy.” have more than 300 kilograms of sia could not find a solution dur- so far honoured its commitments plans to breach limits imposed by Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a visiting low-enriched uranium hexafluo- ing their meeting in Vienna. Iran’s under the JCPOA while Trump had its 2015 nuclear agreement with fellow at the Brookings Doha Cen- ride in its possession by June 27, envoy, Deputy Foreign Minister “ditched the deal.” world powers. tre, said neither the United States which would mean it had broken Abbas Araqchi, said the talks were Jahanpour added that the EU “The window of opportunity nor Iran wanted a major war but out of the atomic accord. But a “a step forward, but it is still not “should take some serious steps to is certainly closing, as the Trump hard-line forces close to the Is- Reuters report, quoting diplomats enough and not meeting Iran’s ex- ensure that Iran derives some eco- administration has pursued an ag- lamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with knowledge of UN inspections pectations.” nomic benefits from it to which she gressive and thoroughly hostile and the supreme leader in Iran in Iran, said the threshold would Adib-Moghaddam said the Ira- is entitled” under the JCPOA policy towards Iran,” Arshin Adib- and hardliners in the Trump ad- be reached a few days later. On July nian measures in stockpiling and “However, in view of the current Moghaddam, a professor in Global ministration could accept military 7, Iran is set to start enriching ura- enrichment were meant as a wake- threats of war in the Persian Gulf, Thought and Comparative Philoso- strikes that avoided a large-scale nium to higher levels. up call to the Europeans. personally I believe that it would phies at the School of Oriental and conflagration. “There are play- Breaking the stockpile limit by “In many ways, Iran was forced be wiser for Iran to observe all the African Studies, University of Lon- ers on both sides who would risk itself doesn’t radically change the to react to the diplomatic lethargy requirements of the JCPOA, so don, said in an email in response to a limited military confrontation,” one year experts say Iran would of the EU and its inability to man- that it does not give the Trump ad- questions. Fathollah-Nejad said by telephone. need to have enough material for a age the crisis caused by the Trump ministration an excuse to increase “The EU has an interest to pre- The row between Tehran and bomb. Coupled with increasing en- administration,” he wrote. pressure on Iran.” vent a war that would be global — Washington has raised concerns richment, however, it makes diplo- “Certainly from the perspective World War III, as I have repeatedly over a war in the Arabian Gulf that matic efforts at saving the accord of Iran, the EU is shirking its re- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly stated to the global media,” he said. could affect the global oil market. harder. sponsibility to follow suit upon the correspondent.

Viewpoint Downing of US drone raises stakes in Gulf showdown Sabahat Khan the last minute. With its weapons on its own as a replacement for the fast boats like the ones Iranian lar by focusing on disrupting “cocked and loaded,” the United S-300PMU2 that Moscow withheld special forces are alleged to have surveillance and intelligence- States was ready for a limited delivery of for almost seven years used to attack tankers. gathering activities, even at high s tensions grew strike targeting specific Iranian until 2015. An alarming conclusion from risks. dangerously high military infrastructure on coastal With its combination of air Iran’s unexpected move is that it The United States will be forced between the United sites, but this invariably risked col- defence systems and radar fits into Iran’s anti-access, area to review how and where it States and Iran, lateral damage and triggering a installations along its coast, Iran is denial strategy, an approach that is operates its growing deployments Tehran shot down full-scale conflict. able to monitor air movements geographically focused in and of surveillance and intelligence- June 20 an American Iran’s downing of the unmanned some distance out into Gulf waters around the Strait of Hormuz but is gathering assets so they are better unmannedA surveillance system RQ-4 Global Hawk — which cost an and also fire at air targets as far as now arguably being extended into protected, but more incidents like over Gulf waters. estimated $200 million — was a 200km away. the aerial domain. It is a highly this could trigger a dramatic The RQ-4A Global Hawk, a high-risk move in itself. But given The American account that its contentious move. escalation that the region can ill high-altitude and long-endurance that there was no loss of life, it was RQ-4A Global Hawk was flying in The Gulf is a relatively small afford. But in these emerging platform that provides wide-area hardly straghtforward for the US to international airspace is highly theatre for military operations, circumstances, the United States surveillance using high-resolution decide on an immediate, propor- plausible because after sabotage where only small distances will also now be looking to synthetic aperture radar was taken tionate military response with the attacks against oil tankers transit- separate friendly and hostile increase precisely those activities. out by Iran’s Raad air defence risk of conflict already so high. ing the area in recent weeks – forces at times. As the United Meanwhile, Trump is aiming to system positioned in Garuk, close Iran’s air defences downing an which Iran denied involvement in States and other international exert more economic pressure on to the Strait of Hormuz. American surveillance platform — the United States and other forces step up deployments and, in Iran, announcing additional Iranian Foreign Minister was not a game-changer, but it regional players logically need to particular, surveillance, it will sanctions targeting its supreme Mohammad Javad Zarif declared does represent an important boost maritime surveillance. The become increasingly difficult for leader and senior officials of the that the US military had violated moment in this brewing crisis. United States and a host of other Iran to repeat the type of attacks it Islamic Revolutionary Guard Iran’s airspace and that his country The Raad, Persian for “Thun- countries have been busy working has been charged with recently. Corps (IRGC). stands ready to defend “every der,” is an indigenously produced to reinforce regional maritime If Iran aims to preserve its ability The international community inch” of its land, sea and aerial medium-range air defence system security over the past few weeks. to conduct more such attacks in must come together quickly to territories. designed to counter air threats, RQ-4A Global Hawk is used for the future, even selectively, then it find ways to reduce tensions as the The United States refuted Iran’s including fighter aircraft, helicop- tracking ships, gathering intelli- needs to complicate the environ- growing showdown between the claim of violating its airspace, ters, cruise missiles and gence on geolocation, speed and ment for surveillance and moni- United States and Iran edges saying that the RQ-4A Global unmanned aerial vehicles to classification, including by toring activities. This requirement towards a dangerous, direct Hawk was actually in international ranges of around 50km. descending through cloud layers becomes even more critical if Iran confrontation. airspace some 18 nautical miles The Raad forms part of Iran’s to gain closer views of targets. The believes there is a real possibility (34km) from Iranian airspace increasingly capable national air downed RQ-4A Global Hawk was of conflict soon. Sabahat Khan, based in Dubai, when it was brought down. defences, which now also include likely tasked with providing These developments, therefore, maintains a cross-disciplinary US President Donald Trump then different versions of the Russian- round-the-clock surveillance of show that Iran is raising the stakes focus in international security, pulled back from retaliatory made S-300, S-200 and the shipping lanes and looking out for in the competition for anti-access, defence policy and strategic strikes against Iran, reportedly at Bavar-373, which Iran developed suspicious movements of small, area denial in the Gulf, in particu- issues. June 30, 2019 5 Debate US-Iran Showdown Iran’s religious foundations in Washington’s crosshairs

Even if a specific company is not sanctioned, where a small percentage is controlled, say, by Gareth Smyth Setad Ejraiye, no-one internation- ally is going to trade with it. The company is now poison.” ome dismissed new While enforcement of the United States sanctions executive order is discretionary, against Iran, announced its scope goes beyond the founda- June 24 by US President tions. Khamenei appoints Iran’s Donald Trump, as leading Friday prayer leaders, tokenish. Christopher clerical members of the watchdog SHill, former US ambassador to Guardian Council, the chief Iraq, told Bloomberg that meas- justice, the head of state broad- ures centred on Iran’s supreme casting, senior military com- leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, manders and the head of Iran’s amounted to “cancelling his Red Crescent. Khamenei has credit cards” and “wouldn’t make representatives dotted around a hoot of a difference.” the world, including the head of Others disagree. The executive the Islamic Centre in London’s order held up for the cameras by Maida Vale. Trump in the Oval Office refers US Treasury Secretary Steven not just to Khamenei but to his Mnuchin also designated eight office and to “any person or entity commanders of the Islamic appointed by the leader or the Revolutionary Guard Corps leader’s office.” The order (IRGC) for their role in its “mali- threatens sanctions against cious regional activities, includ- anyone or any entity worldwide ing its provocative ballistic breaking this prohibition. missile programme, harassment The order covers Iran’s many and sabotage of commercial quasi-religious foundations, vessels in international waters including those administering and its destabilising presence in shrines in Mashhad, Shiraz and Syria.” Ray. In 2013, Reuters estimated Foreign Minister Mohammad the holdings of Setad Ejraiye Javad Zarif is next in line for Farmane Hazrate Emam, designation, Mnuchin added. headquarters of the Tightening US pressure Execution of Imam’s follows the sanctioning Orders, at $95 While in April of the IRGC Deep implications. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a speech during a billion. The and the withdrawal gathering of the judiciary in Tehran, June 26. (AFP) Mostazafan enforcement of in May of waivers Foundation has the executive that had allowed nearly $1 billion order is some Asian the United States has issued no “I think Iran wants to talk due to the country with Nicolas Maduro in annual discretionary, its countries to buy guidelines on selling non-sanc- economic pain but sanctioning still in power. exports, accord- scope goes Iranian oil. Crude tioned goods. Instex, the the supreme leader and the Golkar sees little prospect of ing to a recent beyond the sales have plum- European special purpose vehicle foreign minister will not serve as US-Iran engagement. “I don’t report from foundations. meted from 2.6 to safeguard trade with Iran, an incentive,” he said. “Pompeo’s think Ayatollah Khamenei wants Doublethink, and million barrels a day remains dormant, given the fears 12 demands were a maximalist to talk with Trump,” he said. “The may be the second (bpd) in 2018 when the of European companies and list, which was a non-starter. It leader believes Trump will go in biggest commercial United States left the 2015 banks. seems that Trump is saying he 2020, and by resisting until then enterprise after the National nuclear deal. The London-based Trump’s reported last-minute wants to negotiate without first he’ll be a hero of the Islamic world Iranian Oil Company. Economist Intelligence Unit now cancellation of military strikes on meeting any preconditions. So the and will show to the downtrodden “These foundations have land; puts Iran’s seaborne exports at June 21 after Iran shot down a US 12 points or at least some of them people that resistance works. In they’re active in agriculture, around 500,000 bpd. Even before drone have sparked hopes of will become what you negotiate the meantime, people in Iran are banking, manufacturing, medi- the new sanctions were diplomacy. Trump has said he over in a game of give and take.” nervous, complaining about cines, automobiles, insurance announced, the EIU projected wants to talk. But there is a huge Trump may believe his 2020 hardship and inflation, dissatis- and many other sectors,” said negative growth of 6.5% and 53% gap between what Iran might re-election campaign would fied, seeing no future, waiting for Saeid Golkar, assistant professor consumer price inflation in 2019. accept and the 12 demands benefit from avoiding war while something without knowing what at the University of Tennessee at The Iranian population feels the outlined last year by US Secretary still looking tough with Iran. it is.” Chattanooga. “If you put Ayatol- squeeze. The oil waivers required of State Mike Pompeo. Trump’s political base may not lah Khamenei’s office under payments into Escrow accounts Mehrzad Boroujerdi, professor care that tight sanctions else- Gareth Smyth is a regular sanctions, you’re in effect ring-fenced for humanitarian of political science at Syracuse where have not led to meaningful contributor to The Arab Weekly. sanctioning perhaps 20-30% of purposes – but even then Iran University, argues shooting down talks but to 10 million North He was chief correspondent in the Iranian economy, although struggled to import medicines. the drone was a message that Koreans facing food shortages Iran for the Financial Times in there are even higher estimates. European companies complain Tehran too wants negotiations. and 4 million Venezuelans fleeing 2003-07. Iran’s petrochemical ambitions in tatters after new wave of US sanctions

sanctions” should they continue The Trump administration and Petrochemical Products said to be offering discounts of as to partner with PGPIC, its subsidi- targeted PGPIC with new sanc- Exporters’ Union, Tehran netted much as $40 a tonne from market aries and foreign agents. tions not only for it being an $11 billion from its petrochemical rates of around $260 to $280 a According to the department, economic lifeline for the IRGC but exports in the Iranian year that tonne to entice customers. Iranian Jareer Elass PGPIC has awarded contracts to because the holding company and ended in March. That decline was traders are also using middlemen Khatam al-Anbiya “generating its subsidiaries account for 40% of likely the result of a number of in Dubai and Turkey to sell n targeting Iran’s largest hundreds of millions of dollars for Iran’s total petrochemical produc- petrochemical customers avoid- petrochemical products else- petrochemical entity with an IRGC economic conglomerate tion capacity and provide 50% of ing purchasing from Tehran over where. Shipments of Iranian new sanctions, the Trump that stretches across Iran’s major the Gulf country’s total petro- the ambiguity of November’s products through the Turkish port administration is attempting industries.” The US State Depart- chemical exports. sanctions language. of Izmir have reportedly risen to stem one of Tehran’s vital ment designated the IRGC as a Since the re-introduction of US That hasn’t stopped Iran from since November. non-oil sources of revenue, a “foreign terrorist organisation” in oil sanctions in November, which aggressively working to secure The country has plans to double Isignificant step as the Gulf April. were followed in May by the new customers and offering below- its petrochemical production in country recently has been Although oil export sanctions removal of waivers for Tehran’s market deals to guarantee higher the next five years. Mohammadi boosting its sales of petrochemical that the Trump administration top crude buyers, Iran’s main sales. Reports indicate that Tehran said in late May that his govern- products to compensate for renewed on Iran in November source of revenue has been has tapped the Brazilian market ment would increase its current plunging crude exports. covered petrochemical sales, the decimated. The Gulf producer’s for new urea sales, with production capacity from 65 The sanctions slapped on the language was somewhat ambigu- crude exports have fallen to Iranian vessels making million tonnes to 92 Persian Gulf Petrochemical ous, with Tehran continuing to around 400,000 barrels per day deliveries to the million tonnes by 2021 Industries Company (PGPIC) export products such as urea, (bpd) from pre-sanctions highs of southern Brazilian and to 131 million preceded the US administration’s ammonia and methanol. The 2.5 million-2.7 million bpd. port of Imbituba Since the tonnes by 2024. move to impose sanctions on Treasury Department says it The Iranian regime has turned between March re-introduction of However, Iran’s Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah intends to “vigorously enforce” to its petrochemical industry to and April and Iran US oil sanctions in petrochemical Ali Khamenei and Foreign the newest sanctions. help blunt the economic haemor- recently locking November, Iran’s facilities report- Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, In April, Khamenei stated in a rhaging from its loss of oil income, in additional sales main source of edly were only as Washington endeavours to speech in Tehran that his nation but the existing sanctions have of 230,000 tonnes operating at further cripple Tehran’s econ- should move towards selling more already had an impact and Tehran of urea to that revenue has been around 70% omy. oil derivatives such as refined and has been forced to offer steep South American decimated. capacity last year, The US Treasury Department petrochemical products instead of discounts to attract customers. nation. Pakistan has hampered by a announced on June 7 that it was crude, saying, “I appreciate any Iran’s petrochemical exports also begun taking shortage of feeding placing sanctions on PGPIC, Iran’s decrease of dependency on this comprise more than one-fourth of overland petrochemical materials and inability to largest petrochemical holding type of oil sales.” In early May, the nation’s total non-oil exports. deliveries from its neighbour. perform necessary repairs. group, and 39 of its subsidiaries as Iran’s deputy oil minister for Its petrochemical industry is the Iran has been able to rely on Given the extreme economic well as foreign-based sales agents petrochemical affairs, Behzad Gulf nation’s second largest stalwart customers China and hardships Tehran is facing under a for providing financial aid to Mohammadi, said: “Unlike Iran’s export industry after oil and India for greater volumes. As slew of new sanctions, those Khatam al-Anbiya, the engineer- oil sector, the country’s petro- gas. many as ten cargoes of Iranian production capacity targets may ing arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolu- chemical industry is unsanction- Tehran had been expecting to methanol have been directed to be overly ambitious. tionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The able,” which he attributed to the make some $14 billion from China since the start of 2019 with Treasury Department cautioned wide diversity of petrochemical petrochemical sales last year. India having accepted multiple Jareer Elass reports from international companies that they products and high international According to Ahmad Sarami, a cargoes of Iranian ammonia this Washington on energy issues for “will themselves be exposed to US demand for them. member of the Iranian Oil, Gas year. The Iranian government is The Arab Weekly. 6 June 30, 2019 Opinion

Editorial After Istanbul’s elections he June 23 vote for mayor in Istanbul could be a game changer in Turkey and beyond. Ekrem Imamoglu, the candidate of the opposition Republican People’s Party, won the election rerun with T54.21% of the cast ballots. He defeated the candidate of the ruling Justice and Develop- ment Party (AKP), Binali Yildirim, a former prime minister and close protege of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, by more than 800,000 votes, compared with 13,000 votes in the regular election in March. In an electoral contest described by Erdogan himself as an existential challenge, the voter turnout was close to 85%. A clear measure of the blowback he brought about since cancel- ling the results of the first elections in April. For the first time in more than two decades of rule by Islamists, the mayors of both Istanbul and Ankara will be from the secular opposition. The ruling party’s reluctance to accept the results of the initial vote was a reflection of the high stakes of the election. With the economy of the city of 16 million inhabitants accounting for a third of the country’s GDP, Istanbul is crucial for the AKP’s clientelist networks. © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly Dissatisfaction of Istanbul voters, including those in conservative districts, was also a reflection of Turkey’s mounting economic woes, including high unemployment and A revealing survey that rings alarm bells inflation rates. The economic prosperity argument used to offer Erdogan both a means of power consolidation and the potential for Oussama Romdhani electoral coattails. Now the economy has become a political liability instead. What is happening across the board is that populations are losing At home, things are likely not to be the same much of their trust in political and religious elites. anymore. Imamoglu’s victory is likely to weaken the standing of Erdogan with Turkish citizens or even with AKP members as he has nalysts have been failed to deliver solutions or even much of North Africa and the to manage four more years, till the 2023 scratching their embody hope in the region’s Middle East, politicians, pundits elections. With the results of the election heads over the dim horizons. Reality check. The and pollsters have remained rerun, his political acumen is more than ever results of a recent perception of ineptitude and trapped in their own elitist questioned. opinion survey on ideological rigidity has made prisms. “It’s a colossal defeat for Yildirim but also social, political and Islamists a clearly less appealing Jamal, in an interview released Erdogan. His gamble (in calling for a replay of religiousA attitudes in the Arab alternative. with the survey results, admits the election) backfired,” Berk Esen, assistant world conducted by Arab Barom- What is happening across the as much: “Think about the Arab professor of international relations at Anka- eter, a Princeton University-based board is that populations are los- spring — for a long time observers ra’s Bilkent University, told Agence France- research network, and released ing much of their trust in political of the Middle East have focused Presse. by BBC News Arabic. and religious elites. solely on elites because they The Turkish leader’s authoritarian hold on Much has been said in particu- Michael Robbins, the director believed all policy emanates power will be increasingly challenged. lar about the rise of the propor- of Arab Barometer, concluded from the state or other elites,” Erdogan, who won virtually all elections for tion of Arabs who view them- that “in the vast majority of coun- she writes. “But, what the Arab more than a decade, has to deal with a stun- selves as “not religious” — from tries surveyed, governments are spring showed us is that there is ning defeat in his own turf. 11% in 2012-2014 to 18% in 2019 not meeting the expectations of a layer of society underneath that Erdogan will also have to reckon more with — and the plummeting of trust in their citizens.” also very much matter, and if we the Kurdish factor in Turkish politics. Resent- “religious leaders.” But gaug- Many Arab societies, including consistently ignore that segment ful of the government’s iron-fisted tactics ing attitudes on religion in the Tunisia, which is credited with a as did the Arab regimes, these against Kurdish activists and elected mayors, relatively successful democratic Kurds are widely seen to have played an Arab Muslim world on the basis segments will ultimately protest important role in the Istanbul race. of traditional polling techniques transition, are strongly com- and revolt to make their demands Soner Cagaptay, director for Turkey at the can be treacherous and poten- mitted to freedom but sceptical heard.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says tially misleading. Considering the of whether fractious electoral However, it is not just any the election defeat will dent Erdogan’s ability many variables that can inhibit democracy can bring economic “layer” or a “segment” of society to mobilise state resources and “his control of people in the region from ex- prosperity or ensure security. that is increasingly disillusioned many institutions, from media to courts to pressing their personal views on Amaney Jamal, co-founder — it is predominately the region’s election board.” matters of faith, there is reason to and principal investigator of the youth. Erdogan could be tempted to make life be wary of hasty conclusions in Arab Barometer, says: “Citizens According to the poll, 52% of difficult for opposition mayors, including the this regard. now fear that democracy might 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed in one in Istanbul by new lawsuits, legal meas- A more pertinent phenomenon, inherently cause more instability Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, ures or presidential decrees and by restricting however, is the clear shift away — we see this pattern certainly in Morocco, the Palestinian ter- the new mayors’ ability to disburse budgets or from Islamist parties, whether in Tunisia.” ritories and Tunisia are unhappy to investigate the financial records of the Sudan, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia Even in places that have not with their predicaments and are defeated AKP city administrations. or Egypt. Support for Muslim faced war and strife since the considering emigrating abroad. Repercussions are expected within the AKP Brotherhood-inspired move- “Arab spring,” concerns over There has been a 10% increase itself with more internal fissures appearing ments since 2012 is estimated to safety and how to put bread on in the appeal of emigration since and previously low-profile challengers coming have dropped by no less than a the table have grown for the com- just 2016. to the fore. 20-25% margin. mon man. Even more significant is that “Erdogan is likely to face not only an Whether tested on not, Islam- And while everyday people more than 40% of Algerians, emboldened opposition but also more open ists are perceived as having struggle to make ends meet in Sudanese and Tunisians, as well dissent within the AKP itself,” said Wolf as 38% of Iraqis, Moroccans and Piccoli of the New York-based risk analysis Yemenis say they are willing to firm Teneo Intelligence. join the waves of illegal migrants. “The victory of Ekrem Imamoglu… is the Another predictor of ris- most serious setback for Erdogan since his ing despair is the deteriorating Justice and Development Party first took office mental health of people unable in November 2002 and will further fuel the to cope with daily pressures and already growing sense amongst both his inadequacies. On average, one in opponents and many members of his own three people surveyed said they party that his career is now in irreversible felt “depressed.” The highest decline.” ratio was in Iraq (43%), Tunisia “This is definitely going to have an impact (40%) and the Palestinian ter- on the future of Turkish politics given the ritories (37%). Women and the margin of victory. It’s an alarming sign for the poor seemed particularly prone to AKP establishment,” said Sinan Ulgen, visiting depression. scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels and Certain aspects of the Arab former Turkish diplomat. Barometer-BBC survey could have The contest is likely to carry ripple effects benefited from greater methodo- all across the Middle East and North Africa. It logical and analytical coherence is a blow to Erdogan’s cultivated regional and clarity. Still, the survey raises reputation as a larger than life figure and a number of alarming questions aspiring leader of Islamist movements (that about the roots of the Arab are themselves on the wane all across the world’s despair. Politicians have region). no more reason to look away. The election’s main takeaway for other secu- larists in MENA is that unifying their ranks is Oussama Romdhani the way to win electoral office when faced by is Editor-in-Chief of The Arab daunting Islamist electoral machines. Weekly. June 30, 2019 7 Opinion Erdogan a casualty of improvisation and Published by Al Arab Muslim Brotherhood delusions Publishing House Khairallah Khairallah Publisher The Turkish president’s defeat in Istanbul was a result of a policy called improvisation that and Group Executive Editor he implemented in every area, including in Syria and with the United States and Russia. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD

t was from Istanbul that ership after Abdullah Gul and Editor-in-Chief Recep Tayyip Erdogan Ahmet Davutoglu were mar- Oussama Romdhani started his upward jour- ginalised. There are rumours ney. It is from there that about a possible new party to he started on his down- be founded under Davutoglu’s Managing Editor ward slope. leadership. Iman Zayat IThe man thought upman- When he was the head of ship could be a substitute for Istanbul municipality in the Deputy Managing Editor achievements after he reached 1990s, Erdogan said on many and Online Editor his ambitions by changing the occasions that “whoever loses Mamoon Alabbasi nature of the republic system Istanbul will lose Turkey.” of rule in Turkey. Now, he is on the path to Senior Editor For the second time in less losing Turkey, whose people than three months, Ekrem have resisted a stark attempt John Hendel Imamoglu has defeated Er- to impose on them a new Chief Copy Editor dogan’s candidate in Istan- dictatorship that is similar to bul. It is not important who the military dictatorship of the Richard Pretorius Imamoglu’s competitor was in 1980s. Copy Editors those elections. The Istanbul Turkey did not get rid of mayoral election was a battle that military dictatorship only Stephen Quillen waged by Erdogan, who did to fall under the dictatorship Kyle Arensdorf not realise that the years that of the Muslim Brotherhood. followed his election to the This is the clear message that East/West Section Editor presidency were a defeat, not Istanbul voters conveyed to Mahmud el-Shafey (London) only for him but for all those the Turkish president. who adopt his puritanical So, what happened? Was it Gulf Section Editor Muslim Brotherhood ideology. over-confidence that made Er- Learning no lesson. Supporters of Ekrem Imamoglu, the new mayor of Mohammed Alkhereiji Erdogan had bet on the dogan think he was undefeat- Istanbul, demonstrate in Istanbul, June 27. (AP) Muslim Brotherhood showing able? Was it because he has Society and Travel that he was more than a presi- become incapable of listening Sections Editor dent of Turkey; he wanted to to his opponents? for example, that his attempt trying to find its way amid the Samar Kadi prove that he was capable of It would have been better to break the blockade on the US, Russian, Iranian and Israeli ensuring Turkey’s expansion for Erdogan to look carefully Gaza Strip was of more harm occupations. in all directions and of regain- at the results of the March than benefit to the Palestin- Yes, it is the beginning of Senior Correspondents ing Ottoman glory. elections and try to under- ians. the end for Erdogan, who has Erdogan should have known stand the reasons he lost Erdogan wanted to be a proven to be no more than a Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) that while the Muslim Broth- Istanbul and Ankara rather hero, but he eventually found Third World politician. His Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) erhood can be used for many than challenge the outcome of himself stuck in a game that opportunism and authoritari- purposes, including that of a the vote. Israel managed to win after it anism have caused him to hit Regular Columnists security apparatus, it is not Power often blinds people. forced the flotilla sent by Er- rock bottom, and his actions Rashmee Roshan Lall capable of managing a modern If it were not for the blinding dogan to retreat. The outcome over the last ten years have Claude Salhani country. impact of power on people like was that Erdogan grew to be revealed him to be entangled Yavuz Baydar In Istanbul’s first mayoral Erdogan, the Turkish presi- viewed by Palestinians as a in the backward and miserable election on March 31, Imamo- dent would not have acted the man who sells them illusions. political scene of the Muslim Correspondents glu defeated Binali Yildirim way he did after the attempted The president’s defeat in Is- Brotherhood. No one knows with a margin of 13,500 votes. military coup in July 2016. tanbul was a result of a policy anymore whether Erdogan Nazli Tarzi (London) From that date to the election That situation caused Erdogan called improvisation that he is an ally of Iran or Russia or Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) rerun on June 23, the margin to lose his mind. He cracked has implemented in all areas, whether he wants to throw (London) shot up to 800,000 votes as down on officers, judges, including in Syria and with the himself back into the arms of Dunia El-Zobaidi citizens realised Erdogan is lawyers, journalists, writers United States and Russia. the United States. Roua Khlifi (Tunis) now a failed politician and and school teachers. Erdogan The most serious of Erdog- In a nutshell, failure brings no longer the embodiment of has always believed Fethullah an’s failures was in Syria. The more failure, especially when Chief Designer their hopes. Gulen to be behind any source Turkish president made many a politician does not under- Marwen el-Hmedi It has simply become clear of disloyalty. promises to the Syrian people, stand that it is more important that Erdogan is nothing but a Economic progress achieved but his hesitation always to know how to deal with Designers Muslim Brotherhood member at one time made up for made Turkey the last player failure than with success. Ibrahim Ben Bechir who craves power. His Justice Erdogan’s mistakes. But his in the game rather than the and Development Party (AKP) mistakes were too many. He top decision-maker. Turkey Khairallah Khairallah is a Hanen Jebali has become void of true lead- did not understand in 2010, became a country desperately Lebanese writer.

Contact editor at: Syria and the Iranian curse [email protected] Baha al-Awam During their meeting in Jerusalem, the Russians, Americans and Israelis discussed how to lift the Iranian curse off of Syria, not how to end the Syrian crisis. Al Arab Publishing House Quadrant Building istory repeats of resistance,” or to put it more President Donald Trump has that were sent to Syria after 177-179 Hammersmith Road itself, as is well accurately, the “axis of compro- vowed to stop the exportation 2011. There are also the droves London W6 8BS known. Four years mise.” Ever since that day, their of abroad, is now in control of of Iranian merchants who set- ago, the United lives and their country have four Arab capitals. For that we tled there and created their own States was en- become at the service of the have his predecessors to thank, private economic empires. Iran gaged in long and rule of the Faqih. With the start from George H.W. Bush to can now boast about having Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 Htough negotiations with Iran of the Syrian revolution in 2011, Barack Obama. Syrian politicians, parliamentar- Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 about its nuclear programme. Bashar Assad’s supporters were Realistically and in a nutshell, ians, professors and officers who Not only was a deal struck in being sacrificed to turn Iran’s it is in the interest of the Syrians are more loyal to it than to their 2015 but also Iran got Syria as occupation of Syria into reality. to rid themselves of the Iranian own country. What Iran has a bonus. Today Washington is As to the opposition, Iran used curse, even though that is not done in Syria is create deep rifts US Publisher: back to negotiating with Tehran its members’ blood to write its the only impediment to ending in the moral, demographic and The Arab Weekly USA LLC. about the same programme, deals with the West. their crisis. The matter, how- cultural fibres of Syrian society but this time Syria is an Iranian During their mini-summit ever, requires much more than that no Russian radars can pick [email protected] playing card, not an American meeting in Jerusalem, the Rus- Russia’s cooperation in curbing up or Israeli bombardment can [email protected] one. sians, Americans and Israelis Tehran’s military influence in reach. The Syrian crisis has become discussed how to lift the Iranian Syria, assuming of course that It’s not being pessimistic to Tel: 248-679-6624 the topic of a new series of curse off of Syria, not how to Russia sees the West as a better bring up the topic of the Iranian negotiations. However, these end the Syrian crisis. That same ally than Tehran in the first curse while meetings that are negotiations are not look- goal was also the priority of the place. looking at the Syrian crisis are ing at the crisis as requiring Americans and the Europeans It is true that Moscow views going on; it’s just that we must an independent solution but in the Paris and Brussels meet- Israel as the West’s holy cov- not be too optimistic either. The rather as one item of the overall ings. What all these parties are enant that must be protected West’s war with Iran is going to Iran v the West conflict. The concerned about today is how come what may, and it is true be long, and whether it repre- Subscription & Advertising: parties sitting around today’s to get rid of Iran in the region, that the Russians have a vested sents a scam to blackmail the re- [email protected] negotiation tables are the same for the sake of Israel first and interest in expelling Iran from gion and the world as some have Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 ones as in 2015, with one major for the sake of their interests Syria and taking over its spoils said or the West’s awakening to difference. Israel, which was an next. there. But persuading Russian the danger of a terrorist state, essential but hidden party then, The Iranian curse in the President Vladimir Putin to join as Trump recently described it, Mohamed Al Mufti is now occupying the guest of region began in 1979, with the war against Iran, if it takes Iran’s curse on the Syrians will Marketing & Advertising honour seat. Western silence and America’s place, will be very costly to not end in a few years and will Manager To be part of Tehran’s wars blessing. It has spread to Washington, Brussels and Tel never end as long as the Assads in the region is the Iranian many places, including Syria, Aviv. remain at the helm in Syria. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 curse that has befallen the poor Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and the Iran’s curse on the Syrians www.alarab.co.uk Syrians ever since Damascus de- Palestinian territories. The involves far more than the Baha al-Awam is a Syrian cided to join the so-called “axis Iranian “revolution,” which US soldiers and military equipment journalist. 8 June 30, 2019 News & Analysis Egypt Turkey-Egypt ties further sour after Morsi’s death

Amr Emam an’s statements June 20, describing them as “irresponsible.” He said Er- dogan’s comments did not deserve Cairo a response. “Egypt is ready to counter any ensions are growing be- threats, even if they are empty and tween Egypt and Turkey af- weightless,” Shoukry said. ter Turkish President Recep Morsi’s death came at a time T Tayyip Erdogan stepped up when Erdogan needed to assert his criticism of Egypt following the his Islamist credentials among Jus- death of ousted Islamist President tice and Development Party (AKP) Muhammad Morsi. loyalists on the eve of the Istanbul Morsi died June 17 after a hearing elections, Egyptian analysts said. in his trial on charges of espionage “He wants to escape his internal for the Palestinian movement Ha- crises by feigning strength he does mas. He fell on the floor in front of not possess,” said Tarek Fahmi, a a dozen other leaders and members political science professor at Cairo of his Muslim Brotherhood move- University. ment, who were being tried with The June 23 mayoral election re- him in the same case, one of many run in Istanbul was won by oppo- in which Morsi and other Brother- sition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, hood leaders had been implicated. dealing a heavy blow to Erdogan Morsi died of a heart attack, ac- and the AKP. cording to the Egyptian medical The criticism levelled at Cairo examiner. Nevertheless, Erdogan was in line with Erdogan’s hawkish criticised Egyptian authorities for policy towards Egypt, one that has what he described as leading the Is- been increasing in intensity since lamist former president to a “slow Morsi’s 2013 ousting. death.” Erdogan’s Islamist-leaning party He also claimed that Egyptian was hoping to gain regional lev- prison authorities had denied erage by backing Islamist move- Morsi, who was ousted in an army- ments in “Arab spring” states, such Negative fallout. Islamist demonstrators attend event for Muhammad Morsi, at Fatih Mosque in backed popular uprising in July as Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood re- Istanbul, June 18. (AP) 2013 after only one year in power, gime in Egypt. proper medical care while he was This dream was dashed after the in jail. Islamists lost one “Arab spring’” state after another. president bucks this trend. boycotting Turkish goods. They tian exports to Turkey make up less Some Egyptian lawyers have Egyptian political thinker Am- Lawyer Tarek Mahmud has filed are championed by export and im- than 20% of this trade exchange, filed lawsuits against the mar Ali Hassan said the AKP aimed a case against Erdogan, accusing port associations that highlight the the association says. Turkish ruler, accusing him to exert influence in Arab states af- him of being a terrorism sponsor. need for economic action against “This means that a boycott of of destabilising Egypt. ter the Brotherhood rose to power. “Erdogan works to harm Egypt’s Istanbul. Turkish goods will be painful to “I know the secrets behind Er- interests by sponsoring terrorist Egypt and Turkey signed a free Turkey,” said Mohamed Baraka, a Describing Morsi’s death as an dogan’s anger, especially after the organisations, such as the Brother- trade agreement in 2005. It came member of the Federation of Egyp- “assassination,” Erdogan vowed to Egyptian people devastated his il- hood,” Mahmud said. into force in 2007. With a popu- tian Chambers of Commerce. “By bring the Egyptian government to lusions,” Hassan wrote on Twitter A trial is scheduled in the case lation of more than 100 million, buying Turkish goods, Egyptians the international court and raise June 23. in the coastal city of Alexandria Egypt is an inviting market. give Turkey the money it uses in the issue at the G20 summit in Ja- Egypt stayed relatively silent July 6. Other lawyers say they will Trade exchange between the two harming Egypt’s interests.” pan June 28-29. over the past seven years as Erdog- launch legal proceedings against states reached $5.1 billion last year, Egyptian Foreign Minister an kept criticising Cairo. Shoukry’s Erdogan in international courts. according to the Turkish-Egyptian Amr Emam is a regular contributor Sameh Shoukry denounced Erdog- June 23 criticism of the Turkish There are also calls in Cairo for Businessmen Association. Egyp- to The Arab Weekly. Egypt finds itself in tough spot over Bahrain conference

Hassan Abdel Zaher On June 22, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, senior advis- er and chief architect of the plan, Cairo revealed that the deal would link Gaza with Sinai through upgrading gypt’s participation in the power lines and increasing elec- Bahrain workshop on the tricity flow. economic part of the so- Egypt reportedly downgraded E called “Deal of the Centu- its representation at the meeting in ry,” US President Donald Trump’s reaction, opting to send an aide to blueprint for solving the Palestin- the minister of finance rather than ian-Israeli conflict, is stirring con- the minister himself. troversy. Days later, Egyptian Foreign Cairo decided to attend the Minister Sameh Shoukry doubled meeting after previously stating down on Egypt’s position, saying it would reject the United States’ his country would not give a “par- peace initiative, which, according ticle of sand” to anybody. He add- to leaked information, could in- ed that his country would be rep- clude transferring areas of the Si- resented in the gathering only to Conflicting factors. A 2018 file picture shows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) meeting nai to the Palestinians. “evaluate” the proposed solutions. with the US president’s special envoy Jason Greenblatt (L) and White House senior adviser Jared On June 2, Egyptian President “Egypt has a clear policy of back- Kushner at the presidential palace in the capital Cairo. (AFP) Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said his coun- ing Palestinians,” Shoukry said in try would not approve anything Moscow after meeting his Russian the Palestinians rejected and counterpart Sergey Lavrov. part of peacemaking efforts in the a better position to judge the work- from Palestinians, but from all oth- scoffed at reports that Egypt would “Resolving the Palestinian-Is- region, Egypt was the first Arab shop and also the proposed ideas.” er Arabs who boycotted Egypt for give parts of the Sinai to the Pales- raeli conflict must move hand in state to sign a peace treaty with Cairo also views the workshop as making peace with Israel. At the tinians as part of the US plan. hand with UN resolutions and the Israel in 1979 and has been a driv- an historic opportunity for Pales- time, Israel remained in control of “Will you give anything to any- Arab peace initiative.” ing force behind most peace talks tinians, given the balance of power minor parts of historical Palestine. one?” Sisi asked Sinai Bedouins The Egyptian foreign minister between the Palestinians and Is- on the ground. Decades later, what is on the joining him at a breakfast table at noted that participating in the raelis. table for Palestinians to take is a the presidential palace in eastern meeting did not mean his country Some Palestinians said they fraction of what they could have Cairo. was on board with the proposals. felt abandoned by Egypt join- “The US would surely have received in the 1970s when Egypt But on June 11, the White House Sinai’s status is a very sensitive ing the Bahrain workshop, which been angered if Cairo was made peace with Israel, analysts revealed that Egypt would take issue in Egypt, which, in 1973 lost was boycotted by Palestinians, not represented in the said. part in the Bahrain meeting, fuel- tens of thousands of soldiers and but analysts said Egypt must be workshop,” said Emad Gad, “At the end of the day, the Pal- ling speculation that Egypt is under officers and suffered economic involved in any gathering that re- the deputy head of Egyptian estinian-Israeli conflict will be pressure from the United States. devastation as it moved to liber- volves around Palestinian-Israeli- think-tank Ahram Centre for resolved in light of the balance of “The US would surely have been ate the 62,000-square kilometre peacemaking, however delicate Political and Strategic power on the ground,” Gad said. angered if Cairo was not represent- territory from Israeli occupation. their position. Studies. “This balance of power is tilted ed in the workshop,” said Emad Today, Egyptians are also enduring “Egypt has to be present to lis- severely in Israel’s side and Israel Gad, the deputy head of Egyptian a heavy loss of life to liberate the ten directly to the proposals the US When Egypt began peacemak- will not likely evacuate heavily think-tank Ahram Centre for Politi- territory from terrorism. administration will make during ing efforts with Israel in the after- populated settlements in the West cal and Strategic Studies. “Egypt, Being the most populous and the gathering,” said former Egyp- math of the 1973 Battle of Sinai, Bank.” the United Arab Emirates and Sau- militarily powerful Arab nation, tian Foreign Minister Mohamed the Egyptian leadership asked the di Arabia are main parties in this Egypt is of key importance for the al-Orabi. Palestinians to join in. They were Hassan Abdel Zaher is an Egyptian regard.” Palestinians. Having often been “This participation puts Egypt in met with a harsh reaction, not only reporter based in Cairo. June 30, 2019 9 News & Analysis Iraq Iraqi prime minister under more pressure to deliver reforms

Mamoon Alabbasi al-Binaa (Construction) bloc, the second largest in parliament, led by militia leader Hadi al-Amiri. London “Now Abdul-Mahdi can catch his breath until the next crisis,” raqi Prime Minister Adel Ab- Abdul Wahid Tuama, a political dul-Mahdi is under increas- analyst, told Arab News. “The ing pressure to deliver on the performance of the government I range of reforms he promised will not change and the problems despite his success to fill three facing the prime minister will not key ministerial positions that had be resolved.” been vacant since his appoint- Iraqis have long complained of ment last October. a lack of basic services, including The Iraqi parliament voted on electricity and drinking water, as June 24 to approve naming Yas- well as job opportunities. They In hot water. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi speaks to journalists in Baghdad, June 11. (AP) sin al-Yassiri as interior minister, also accuse all branches of the Najah al-Shammari as defence state of being rampant with cor- minister and Farouq Amin Oth- ruption and want a government candidate of al-Sadr and Amiri. On unlikely that Abdul-Mahdi would stance vis-a-vis the government, man as justice minister. The post that is willing to root it out. June 14, Sistani criticised govern- be able to meet al-Sadr’s demands which we will announce later of education minister, however, Mass anti-government pro- ment shortcomings. anytime soon. on,” Ghaib al-Amiri, a member of remained unfilled. tests demanding anti-corruption Al-Sadr took to Twitter on June In addition to pressure to deliv- parliament for Sairoon, told Al- reforms, job provisions and im- 23 to renew his demands from er reforms from the Iraqi street, Monitor. Now, Abdul-Mahdi, in provement in services rocked the government and parliament. al-Sadr and Sistani, Abdul-Mahdi In media circles, Abadi is al- Basra province last year and oc- They include appointing govern- is now also facing a new opposi- ready being discussed as possibly office for only eight casionally spread to other areas in ment officials based on merit, not tion bloc in parliament. Abadi’s being Iraq’s next prime minister months, is facing the the country’s southern region. ethnic or sectarian background; al-Nasr (Victory) Alliance and Am- should Abdul-Mahdi step down. threat of being toppled Observers said public discon- improving public services; re- mar al-Hakim’s Hikma (Wisdom) “Sairoon and other political even before his term is tent with the government played fraining from giving themselves Movement recently announced groups have asserted that Abadi over. a part in the electoral defeat of raises, bonuses or perks; ensuring that they are forming an opposi- might be the most likely succes- former Prime Minister Haider government policies are set by Ira- tion to the government. sor should Mr. Adel Abdul-Mahdi Influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Abadi when he sought a sec- qis for the interest of Iraq and do Members of the Sairoon (March- resign from the premiership,” al-Sadr, whose al-Islah (Reform) ond term in 2018. After failing to not come from across the border, ers) Alliance, which is loyal to al- Ihsan al-Shammari, a political bloc is the largest in parliament, meet protesters’ demands, Abadi in a reference to Iran; protecting Sadr, said they are contemplat- pundit who has worked as a me- had recently threatened to with- lost the tacit backing of Grand peaceful protesters; keeping the ing joining that opposition bloc dia adviser to Abadi, told Rudaw draw his support for Abdul-Mahdi Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani as well as promise of fighting corruption; should Abdul-Mahdi fail to de- English. if the prime minister did not come the political support of al-Sadr. protecting the country’s borders liver on his promises. The opposition bloc, however, up with acceptable ministerial His bloc is the third largest in par- from terror and smuggling; and “Sairoon Alliance will carry has itself come under criticism. candidates within ten days. liament. strengthening the country’s secu- out the questioning of the prime The Hikma Movement is report- Previous candidates for the key Now, Abdul-Mahdi, in office for rity forces to prevent armed sec- minister on his government pro- edly lobbying for government posts were rejected by the Islah only eight months, is facing the tarians from imposing their will gramme and the reform plans set posts while declaring itself as an bloc in parliament because they threat of being toppled even be- on the people, in a reference to the by al-Sadr. If he has valid justifi- opposition party. It already has were viewed as corrupt or too fore his term is over. Abdul-Mahdi country’s militias. cations [for his actions], we will one governor in office as well as close to Iran. These candidates does not head his own parliamen- Having failed to appoint key continue to support him; oth- five director-generals in a number were suggested by the pro-Iran tary bloc; he was the consensus ministers over seven months, it is erwise, we will take a different of ministries.

Viewpoint Joint military exercises with Iraq demonstrate Iran’s control oth Iraqi and Iranian belligerent behaviour. sources have con- Not only have senior com- Tallha firmed that the two manders from both land forces Abdulrazaq countries are plan- expressed their desire to ning on conducting conduct joint exercises and to joint military exer- train Iraqis in Iran, but Iranian Bcises and for Iraqi forces to media outlet ISNA reported that receive training in Iran. officers responsible for air At a time when tensions defence indicated a desire to between Iran and the United work with Iraq to form a “joint States are at their highest since air defence” and to “consolidate the 1980s, any military Islamic power in the [Middle announcements made by Tehran East].” Obviously, this is in clear should be viewed within the reference to the radical context of its security concerns Khomeinist ideology that rules regarding America. As if the Iran and now dominates Iraq as a master-slave dynamic between result of Tehran’s proxies. It also Iran and its militant proxies and comes directly after the Iranians political puppets in Iraq was not downed an American drone over obvious enough, Tehran is now international waters, sending a signalling to the West that any message that US air assets may attacks launched against Iran also be in danger over Iraqi will be met with force not only airspace. by it but also by those it influ- Just less than two decades Armed encroachment. Iraqi militia commander Hadi al-Amiri (R) ences in Iraq. ago, the prospect of having Iraq stands in the al-Alam area, north of Baghdad. (AFP) The announcement follows a and Iran cooperate on anything, visit to Baghdad in March by let alone military affairs and Iranian President Hassan national security, would have throats and constantly seeking own country and sided with Iran Rohani, who signed agreements been laughable. However, since the mullahs’ favour. and its Islamic Revolutionary to develop railways between the the US-led invasion of Iraq and Gradually, Iranian proxies Guard Corps in the 1980s. two countries and integrate their the ouster of former dictator have moved from irregular With such a background and oil infrastructure, and follows Saddam Hussein in 2003, militia groups to formally such a concerted effort on behalf previous electricity supply politicians and Shia jihadists the melding into the Iraqi armed of the Iranians to gradually turn Just less than two deals. Iran’s intent is to more ayatollahs had incubated on forces under the Popular Iraq into a satrapy, the closely integrate its Iraqi Iranian soil took senior positions Mobilisation Forces, which was announcement that the two decades ago, the backyard into its strategic depth. in the Iraqi government, intel- recognised as an independent countries plan to hold joint prospect of having By including Iraq in their ligence agencies and security armed service following its military drills should come as no military and defensive spheres, apparatuses. Not ones to ever let involvement in the war against surprise to anybody. The United Iraq and Iran the Iranians are creating an a favour go without payment, the Islamic State. Simultane- States and its Gulf allies must cooperate on economic, political and military Iran has ensured these people ously, the interior ministry, include Iraq into any of their anything, let alone buffer that can theoretically know they owe their lives and which is responsible for the strategic considerations towards protect them against any attacks their careers to Tehran and has federal police as well as various Iran. military affairs and coming from the West. In other supported different strands of intelligence services, is exten- national security, words, Iran is looking to turn Iraqi political and militant sively staffed by members of the Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher Iraq into its shield, ready to Shiism in a carefully calibrated Badr Organisation, a Shia at the University of Exeter’s would have been absorb all the painful blows that system of checks and balances to jihadist group led by Hadi Strategy and Security Institute in laughable. might come its way due to its ensure they are at each other’s al-Amiri. He fought against his England. 10 June 30, 2019 News & Analysis Syria Idlib operation risks morphing into ‘war of attrition’

Sami Moubayed a powerful affiliate of the FSA, and so was Hurras al-Din, composed mainly of defectors from Hayat Beirut Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), all affiliated with al-Qaeda. hen begun after a The fourth and last — and most ef- failed peace confer- fective of all in battle— was HTS it- ence last April, the self, which overran 95% of the Idlib W operation in Idlib was province last January. supposed to be both “quick” and Apart from lip service, nobody “limited,” aimed more at squeez- seemed to object to the rapid ad- ing the armed opposition out of the vances of the Syrian and Russian city’s countryside than retaking its armies, not even the Turks or the last stronghold in the Syrian north- Americans. Then, something hap- west. pened on June 6, when a counter- The Russians packaged it as a offensive was launched by Turkish- “must” to the international com- backed opposition forces, repelling munity, saying that these Islamic the advance and retaking a handful groups were threatening their se- of the towns from the Syrian Army. curity at the airbase of Hmeimeem Back-to-back attacks by govern- and putting the lives of Christians ment troops against illegal Turkish of Mhardeh, a city north-west of checkpoints within Syrian territory Hama, in grave danger. The opera- only complicated the situation in tion aimed at pushing them out of January. the farmlands in places such as al- Since December 2018, Turkish Ghab in the Hama countryside and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Jisr al-Shughour, which overlooks has been eying the city of Tel Ri- the Syrian coast, and other cities. faat, 40km north of Aleppo, where Ultimately Syrian troops were he claims Kurdish separatists are supposed to reach the strategic op- hiding since their eviction from Af- position-held city of Ariha, south rin last year. of Idlib, within 2-3 weeks. He was brought to believe that in Long stand-off. A boy holds the Free Syrian Army flag during a protest calling for an end to the During its initial stages, the op- return for his silence on Idlib, the strikes and for Ankara to open the frontier at the Atmeh crossing on the Syrian-Turkish border, in eration went well, thanks to for- Russians would not mind his ad- Idlib governorate, Syria, May 31. (Reuters) midable Russian air cover. Syrian vance on Tel Rifaat. That approval forces rumbled swiftly through the never came, however, thanks to a Hama-Idlib countryside, retaking double veto by both Tehran and but 400 troops from north-eastern sion between Iran and the United all of their allies or adversaries in 18 towns and villages. Damascus. In retaliation, Erdogan Syria. States. battle. The armed opposition was fight- sent arms and fighters to Idlib, To prepare his proxies for an as- That certainly contributed to the Due to the above surprises, Idlib ing on two fronts at once, which seemingly saying that if he couldn’t sault on the Kurds, Erdogan with- sluggish advance and so did the has taken far longer than most peo- made the battle far more difficult. take Tel Rifaat, then he wouldn’t drew top fighters from Idlib, from fact that some of the government- ple expected. And this wasn’t the One was against advancing govern- surrender Idlib that easily. the Zinki Brigade and Ahrar al- affiliated troops were former fight- full-fledged battle for Idlib but only ment troops from the Greek Ortho- Earlier in September, Erdogan Sham, seeming that they were far ers with the armed opposition, aimed at retaking its countryside, dox town of Suqaylabiyah and the met with his Russian counterpart more needed elsewhere. who failed to shoot at their former making one wonder what the final second was an ongoing war within at the Black Sea resort of Sochi, “A ceasefire won’t happen in the comrades. battle will look like and how long it Idlib itself, waged by the jihadi where they agreed to let Turkey de-conflict zone unless Turkey They were mostly ex-fight- will last. groups against each other. cleanse the Idlib province from all commits to cleansing the area,” ers from the Syrian south, who Unlike other battlefields, which One camp included the Turkey- terrorists affiliated either with the said Amer Elias, a Damascus-based switched sides and joined the were perceived as difficult but con- backed National Liberation Front, Islamic State (ISIS) or HTS, former- political analyst. “Nothing will Russian-led reconciliation process cluded swiftly in favour of the Rus- a loose coalition of fighters who ly Jabhat al-Nusra. happen before the Damascus-Alep- in 2018. Others were simply taken sians, this will morph into a war had been shipped to Idlib from Erdogan missed his initial dead- po Highway is opened by the Syr- aback by the geography, which of attrition aimed at gradual sur- previous battlefields, estimated at line of mid-October 2018 and every ian Army.” they were total strangers to, never render through sustained attacks, 70,000 troops. It included power- extension since then, seemingly Turkish intervention was not having ventured into the Hama unless a new deal is hammered ful players such as the Free Syrian losing interest in the entire Idlib af- the only reason why the Idlib and Idlib countryside before, at out between Erdogan and Russian Army (FSA), the Free Idlib Army, fair and getting more focused on operation took so long. Another a time when their opponents had President Vladimir Putin. Ahrar al-Sham, Suqoor al-Sham Kurdish-held cities such as Kob- main point was the total absence been deeply trenched there since and the Noor al-Din al-Zinki Bri- ane, Ras al-Ayn and Tel Rifaat, of Hezbollah fighters, who had 2015. A fourth reason, no doubt, is Sami Moubayed is a Syrian gade. especially in light of US President been explicitly excluded from the the jihadi doctrine of HTS and ISIS, historian and author of “Under the A second force was Jaysh al-Izza, Donald Trump’s decision to all battlefield, in light of rising ten- which makes them last longer than Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015).

Viewpoint Turkey remains irresolute on Syria

he Syrian conflict allow Turkish allies to dominate or to be defeated have failed; so, and requests, to decrease YPG appears on Turkey’s the strategic town of Manbij and in a sense, did Erdogan’s influence in the area. border but beyond successfully pushing Kurdish personal appeal for the world to Turkish rallying cries for the James Snell Turkish containment troops from the Afrin canton in save Idlib when a massacre defence of Idlib and Erdogan’s and entirely out of an operation titled Olive Branch looked likely last year – the mas- condemnation of Russian and Turkish control. last year. sacre merely having been regime war crimes are moti- TTurkey has played a signifi- When the Assad regime postponed. vated as much by national cant but not determining role in consolidated its position, taking Now Turkey blames the Assad concerns as by internationalism. Syria’s war, with its leader — the final rebel holdouts in regime for allowing Russian The war is on Turkey’s border prime minister at the start of Syria’s south, Turkey atrocities. And, separately and it cannot ignore it. Turkish Syria’s war, now president — entrenched itself in Syria’s though in a connected spirit, interventions in Syria are Recep Tayyip Erdogan calling north, continuing to organise a Turkey has threatened retalia- designed separately to control for the removal of Syrian rebel force it terms the Syrian tion if the regime continued to the border and prevent the President Bashar Assad and National Army and supporting attack Turkish observation extensive movement of refugees retaining that demand through- other, more Islamist factions, posts in Idlib and Hama. In a into and through Turkey and to out the development and such as the Syrian Liberation press conference June 14, protect Turkey from the poten- degeneration of Syria’s conflict. Front (JTS), in the densely Erdogan said: “Turkey will not tial threat of Kurdish terrorism, But beyond that, as Assad populated portion of Syria, in remain silent if the Syrian which, in Erdogan’s mind, is remains unremoved, Turkish Idlib and Hama, which are not regime continues to attack represented by allowing the YPG actions and words have proven occupied by the regime or the observation points in Idlib.” and its SDF banner a toehold in various, flexible and of incon- SDF. The nature of that retaliation Syria’s north-east. sistent effectiveness. The regime and its opponents, remains open to speculation and As things become more Turkey has supported a notably including Hayat Tahrir likely would not, if it happened, desperate in the Idlib pocket, number of armed opposition al-Sham (HTS), the jihadist amount to very much. On June some Syrian activists talk of groups ranged against Assad. group variously linked to 16, according to rebel and threatening a mass migration During the campaign against the al-Qaeda, agreed to a ceasefire opposition news sources, into Turkey to prompt Turkish Islamic State (ISIS), Turkish last year that was only sporadi- Turkish forces apparently and other national leaders to sponsored rebels in Operation cally successful and is in the exchanged artillery and mortar take their situation seriously. Euphrates Shield took much process of bloodily breaking fire with regime forces in west Turkey’s official policy is to territory from the Islamic State. down. Hama in response, reportedly, to protect Syrians from Assad and Turkey-backed rebel fighters Turkey has solidified its a regime attack. secure its Syrian border. But Turkish rallying cries were only prevented from presence in Idlib, but not This exchange does not when this is taken with actions for the defence of marching on its de facto capital without reversals. HTS effec- indicate much except irresolu- by Turkish local government, of Raqqa by the decision of the tively defeated JTS earlier this tion and an inability to achieve for example in Gazipasa, Idlib and Erdogan’s United States-dominated global year, monopolising the political Turkey’s stated and unstated Antalya, which this month tried condemnation of coalition to support the Kurd- control of much of Idlib. And aims. to stop Syrians using public Russian and regime ish-led Syrian Democratic Turkish forces and their rebel In the same press conference, amenities, such as beaches, as a Forces (SDF) in their stead. allies are under fire from the Erdogan also suggested that deterrence, it seems clear that, war crimes are Turkey has made its own regime and its allies and unable more effort could be made on of the two, the former merits motivated as much by moves against the SDF and its to control the situation. Turkey’s part to evict the YPG less concern and less effort than primary constituent force, the Turkey has once more from Manbij and lamented the the latter. national concerns as People’s Protection Units (YPG), resorted to rhetoric. Its previ- lack of American action, in by internationalism. pressuring the United States to ous calls for Assad to step down response to Turkey’s demands James Snell is a British journalist. June 30, 2019 11 News & Analysis Lebanon Lebanon stays away from Bahrain conference, wary of own challenges

Simon Speakman Cordall non. Lebanon is not a real estate company.” According to official records, Tunis there are approximately 470,000 registered Palestinian refugees re- eirut appears to have stolen siding in Lebanon. However, an offi- the march on many criti- cial 2017 census recorded less than cising the US-sponsored half that number, citing just some B “Peace to Prosperity” con- 175,000 as present. ference in Bahrain June 25-26. Under the terms of the US plan, In a statement issued ahead of more than $50 billion would be the conference June 23, Parliamen- made available to fund projects in- tary Speaker Nabih Berri slammed tended to bolster the economies of US overtures, saying, “Those who the Palestinians and those of the think that waving billions of dollars neighbouring Arab countries. Under can lure Lebanon, which is under the proposals, Lebanon would ben- Not seeing eye to eye. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (R) receives US Secretary of State the weight of a suffocating econom- efit by some $6.3 billion in invest- Mike Pompeo in Beirut, March 22. (AP) ic crisis, into succumbing or barter- ment to be delivered over a ten-year ing over its principles are mistaken.” period. He stressed that any offer intended Stoking tensions within Lebanon in Beirut. The refugees themselves rael in 2006, was keen to under- Lebanon’s finances are desperate. to bolster the Palestinian cause is the suggested target of the $6.3 have been a fixture within the score the consensus, terming the US According to the country’s Ministry must feature the refugees’ right to billion, which is to focus primarily country since 1948 and, denied le- plan “a historic crime” that must be of Finance, last year’s expenditure return first and foremost. on overhauling the country’s ailing gal citizenship, are forced to live in stopped. came to $16.5 billion against to- infrastructure rather than offer- temporary accommodation reliant In the absence of any indication tal revenues of some $12.5 billion. For Beirut, any ing relief to the Palestinians them- upon the United Nations Relief and of a political solution beyond the While a draft budget agreed in late accommodation for selves. Through a combination of Works Agency (UNRWA) for essen- initial offer of investment, Lebanon May promised to go some way in ad- grants, loans and private invest- tial services such as health care and joins a lengthy roster of Arab states dressing that, the situation remains Palestinian refugees is ments, some $3 billion has been education. staying away from the Bahrain con- perilous. On June 27, credit rating viewed both as an suggested to go towards improv- For Beirut, any accommodation ference. The Palestinian territories, agency Moody’s warned that, de- acceptance of their ing the country’s road networks, for Palestinian refugees is viewed Kuwait and Iraq all chose to decline spite the austere measures involved permanent presence within $2 billion for the construction of a both as an acceptance of their per- invitations to the conference. On in the budget, Lebanon still looked the country and a rail network and $1 billion towards manent presence within the coun- the second day of the conference, likely to require debt rescheduling concession to Israel, with expanding Lebanon’s ports and air- try and a concession to Israel, with the Sultanate of Oman went one or other steps that would essentially which Lebanon remains at ports. which Lebanon remains at war. step further, announcing the open- constitute a default. war. Despite the pressing need for However, it also cannot be ignored ing of an embassy in the occupied In addition to hosting thousands overhauling Lebanon’s ailing infra- that Palestinian militias played a West Bank. of Palestinian refugees, Lebanon Addressing the president’s son- structure, many still view the offer significant role within the civil war However, for Lebanon, circum- is also temporary home to some in-law and architect of the Bahraini as an attempt by the United States that raged between 1975 and 1990 stances are particularly acute. In the 935,000 registered refugees who economic workshop, Jared Kush- to establish a permanent Palestini- and that, to this day, the camps re- face of a deteriorating economy and have fled the conflict in neighbour- ner, on Twitter, Lebanese MP Na- an enclave within Lebanon and fun- main well defended. an austerity budget unparalleled ing Syria. However, as the UN halted dim Gemayel wrote: “Mr Kushner, damentally undermine its delicate The rejection of the US offer has within the country’s recent history, registrations in 2015, aid workers you need to realise that we did not sectarian balance. provided a rare point of consensus the offer of financial relief in return estimate the number as far higher. offer tens of thousands of martyrs Ensuring the temporary status of among Lebanon’s typically strife- for the tacit acceptance of the refu- for tens of billions of dollars to set- Palestinian refugees within Leba- ridden sects. Hezbollah, which gees could only have served to rub Simon Speakman Cordall is a tle Palestinians and others in Leba- non has been a longstanding policy fought a month-long war with Is- salt within official wounds. freelance writer.

Viewpoint The unravelling of the Jumblatt-Hariri bonds

ebanese politics is a Rafik Hariri’s son and political cling to power. Yet this analysis confrontation with Iran and its unique spectator heir, Saad Hariri, fully assume does not fully explain why local allies as uneven and sport, giving its the reins of power. Hariri has alienated many of his unfruitful. Makram Rabah audience a peek into This series of events helped traditional allies and, more Many of Hariri’s early politi- a cutthroat process form a sacred, familial bond importantly, formed an cal blunders were chalked up to that can bring even between Jumblatt and the unshakable union with Bassil, bad counsel, but it is now clear Lthe most treasured alliances to young Hariri, but it wasn’t long who provides political cover for that the fights he picks with his a close. The recent showdown before that was put to the test. Hezbollah and their project of traditional allies are his battles between Prime Minister Saad Over the years, Hariri was Iranian expansion. alone — and ones he will defend Hariri and Druze chieftain pushed to accommodate Hariri’s critics, Jumblatt chief until the end. This has not gone Walid Jumblatt is a case in requests from his other allies, among them, have attacked the unnoticed by Jumblatt, who, point. which often came partially at prime minister for failing to despite being ridiculed by Over the past week, Jumblatt, the expense of Jumblatt and his stand up for his office and Hariri and accused of deceit who heads the Progressive small Druze quota in the archaic relinquishing much of his and deception, has shown Socialist Party (PSP), and Hariri Lebanese clientelist system. power to Aoun and Bassil. remarkable restraint. He has engaged in a brutal war of Tensions between them intensi- There is much truth to these urged his followers to refrain words on social media, seem- fied after Hariri entered into a accusations and the arrange- from responding to Hariri via ingly ending their decades-long political and financial arrange- ment is indeed highly damaging the media — both in order to political alliance and shattering ment with Gebran Bassil, the to Lebanon’s political future. avoid ramping up sectarian the respect they once had for head of the Free Patriotic But for Jumblatt and anyone tensions and because he knows each other. While the two Movement and the son-in-law who wishes to stop the tyranny trying to reason with Hariri to leaders’ fallout was not sudden of Michel Aoun. of Aoun and his likes, it must be come in from the cold and or unexpected, the intensity Aoun’s subsequent election clearly acknowledged that denounce his pact with Bassil with which it transpired shows to the presidency was the death Hariri is a liability rather than is an utterly futile exercise. just how much has gone awry knell. It served as a victory for an asset. Going forward, anyone on the Lebanese political scene. Aoun’s allies Hezbollah and Fourteen years have elapsed wishing for Hariri to change Accused by many of being Syria and meant the end of the since Saad Hariri, then a young should demonstrate that they Hariri’s victories and fickle and chameleon-like, Taif Accord as it previously millionaire was forced into poli- are willing to go all the way to many subsequent Jumblatt is one of the most stood, reverting Lebanon’s tics after his father’s death. make it happen, even if that important politicians in modern political arrangement back to Hariri’s victories and many means resigning from cabinet defeats have seen him Lebanese history and played a its previous status, under subsequent defeats have seen and forming a serious opposi- transform into a key role in bringing Hariri to which the president holds most him transform into a different tion movement that can hold different breed of power. In 1989, he supported of the power and the prime breed of politician — one who Hariri and his sacred alliance the Taif Accord, a landmark minister is given an ancillary views members of the old guard with Bassil to account. Until politician — one who agreement drawn up by his role. This shift greatly vexed such as Jumblatt and Berri as this happens, both Hariri and views members of the friend and future Prime Minis- Jumblatt and other key sup- inconsequential to the region Jumblatt need to look for a way ter Rafik Hariri that laid the porters of the Taif agreement, and inconvenient to his own to repair what remains of their old guard such as foundation for the country’s such as House Speaker Nabih political ambitions. relationship or simply declare it Jumblatt and Berri as political future. After Rafik Berri, who soon found them- Hariri’s recent public thrash- dead. inconsequential to Hariri was assassinated in June selves deprived of the spoils of ing of Jumblatt illustrates this 2005, Jumblatt played a key role not-so-good governance. transformation. The old Saad Makram Rabah is a lecturer the region and in the “Cedar Revolution” that Today, many view Hariri’s Hariri who rose from of the at the American University of inconvenient to his sought independent leadership radical decision to effectively ashes of his dead father bent on Beirut and author of “A Campus for the country and justice for destroy his father’s legacy and revenge is no more, especially at War: Student Politics at the own political the late prime minister’s death. empower the anti-Taif crowd as after his fall out with the Saudi American University of Beirut, ambitions. Jumblatt then went on to help a desperate, last-ditch effort to regime. Hariri now sees open 1967-1975.” 12 June 30, 2019 Special Focus Turkey after Istanbul vote Turks wonder if Istanbul vote was fatal blow to Erdogan

Thomas Seibert to show Imamoglu’s solid lead in the days before the vote. The president, who has won al- Istanbul most all elections in Turkey for more than a decade, appeared to be ollowing a landslide win for stunned by the result. For the first the opposition in a mayoral time since his AKP came to power election in the metropolis in 2002, Erdogan did not face the F Istanbul, some Turks won- cameras after an election, con- der whether President Recep Tayy- gratulating Imamoglu via Twitter ip Erdogan can recover from the instead. most stinging defeat. Karabekir Akkoyunlu, a Turkish Kadri Gursel, a prominent oppo- academic, commented on Twitter sition journalist, called the result that Erdogan had suffered a mas- of the June 23rd election a “politi- sive setback. “After 31 March, I said cal tectonic shift.” Author Tayfun Erdogan would either lose Istanbul Atay commented Turkey was “at or legitimacy,” he wrote. “He man- a point of ‘impending death’ of an aged to lose both. Incredible.” exhausted government.” At least In his first public appearance one lawmaker from Erdogan’s rul- since the AKP’s defeat, Erdogan ing Justice and Development Party vowed on June 25 to listen to the (AKP) demanded “self-criticism” “nation’s lessons” and to find out and called for a return to demo- why the party fared poorly. cratic principles, in reference to Er- A high-ranking opposition law- dogan’s authoritarian tendencies. maker said that “nothing will be the As the results became clear, parts same” in Turkish politics after the of Istanbul erupted in celebrations, Istanbul election. Speaking on con- with people dancing in the streets dition of anonymity, the lawmaker or honking the horns of their cars. said it was hard to understand why Opposition politician Ekrem Ima- Erdogan had insisted on repeating moglu, a 49-year-old former busi- the Istanbul election in the first nessman and mayor of the Istanbul place. district of Beylikduzu, won 54% of Deniz Zeyrek, a respected jour- the vote in the election on June 23 nalist, said in a television interview for mayor of Istanbul, nine percent- that former Finance Minister and age points or 800,000 votes ahead AKP co-founder Ali Babacan was of the AKP’s Binali Yildirim, who preparing to set up a new party reached 45%. that could attract AKP lawmakers Imamoglu’s victory means that and voters. Ahmet Davutoglu, a Istanbul, a city of 16 million people former prime minister, is expected that is home to a third of Turkey’s to present his own party before the economy, will have its first non-Is- end of the month, the daily Sozcu lamist mayor since 1994. reported. The election was a re-run vote Analysts say the loss could set off after the electoral commission, un- a cabinet reshuffle in Ankara and der pressure from Erdogan’s gov- adjustments to foreign policy. It ernment, annulled the regular poll could even trigger a national elec- of March 31, which Imamoglu had tion earlier than 2023 as scheduled. On the eclipse? Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29. (Reuters) won with a narrow margin. Critics Turkey’s economy is now in re- accused the 65-year-old Erdogan, cession and the United States, its who started his career in Istanbul NATO ally, has threatened sanc- system, Ankara would be blocked work with the AKP to tackle Istan- it took voters’ issues seriously and when he became mayor 25 years tions if Erdogan goes ahead with from purchasing F-35 fighter jets bul’s problems, including its trans- refrained from aggressive and ago, of refusing to give up control of plans to install a Russian missile and Turkish pilots currently train- port gridlock and the needs of its dividing rhetoric. the city, a crucial source of patron- defence system, S-400. ing in the US would be expelled. more than 500,000 Syrian refugees. The handover of power in the age for the AKP. Speaking after meeting his US “It’s a problem, there’s no question “In this new page in Istanbul, mayor’s office could shed further The decision to repeat the elec- counterpart Donald Trump on the about it,” Trump said about Tur- there will from now on be justice, light on what Imamoglu said was tion upset many AKP members as sidelines of the G20 summit in Ja- key’s plans. equality, love, tolerance, while mis- the misspending of billions of lira well. Provisional results on June pan on June 29, Erdogan said Tur- Imamoglu told his supporters spending (of public funds), pomp, at the Istanbul municipality, which 23 showed that Imamoglu received key would stick with the S-400 that he would work for all people in arrogance and the alienation of the has a budget of around $4 billion. majorities even in districts of Istan- project. Delivery was expected Istanbul, regardless of their politi- other will end,” he said. CHP officials say the AKP’s city bul known to be AKP strongholds. to start in the first half of July, Er- cal preferences. Ates Ilyas Bassoy, the Republi- administration of Istanbul handed Even though Erdogan did not dogan said, adding that Trump had “Today, 16 million Istanbul resi- can People’s Party (CHP) strategist millions of dollars’ worth of subsi- run in the election he was a central reassured him there would be no US dents have renewed our faith in de- behind the Imamoglu campaign, dies to organisations that are close figure because he pushed for the sanctions. mocracy and refreshed our trust in said in an interview that the party to Erdogan. annulment decision and took part But Trump said after the meeting justice,” Imamoglu told supporters. had answered Erdogan’s fierce rhe- The AKP’s defeat came almost in the AKP campaign with a last- that US concerns remained. Wash- Imamoglu, who waged an inclu- torical attacks with “smiles.” Bas- exactly one year after Erdogan minute decision to hold rallies in ington says that if by July 31 Tur- sive campaign and avoided criticis- soy, who calls his concept “Radical and his party scored major victo- Istanbul when opinion polls started key does not give up on the S-400 ing Erdogan, said he was ready to Love,” said the CHP won because ries, winning parliamentary and

Viewpoint Will Istanbul results finally see Turkey’s CHP get it together?

Ekrem Imamoglu its crowning Gulen, Kurdish militancy or clear message to Turks even as has in its hands priceless political achievement. It’s no small feat foreign interest rate speculators the ruling party shuttered the momentum. considering the control the AKP whom Erdogan blames for independent media, imprisoned Will it take the difficult step – Stephen Starr has exerted over many aspects of attempting to destroy Turkey’s political opponents and engaged for its leadership and its core Turkish life. economy. In part because of a in combat with Kurdish forces in supporters alike — of publicly In the rerun election, Imamo- backlash to the AKP-induced Syria and south-east Turkey. recognising wrongdoing done to he leadership and glu won an additional 12 Istanbul paranoia, Imamoglu added about As Erdogan increasingly took the Kurdish-rooted People’s supporters of Turkey’s districts compared to the 800,000 more votes on June 23 power into his own hands over Democratic Party (HDP) and Republican People’s mayoral poll in March, including compared to March 31. the course of several elections move to propose an end to the Party (CHP) might feel areas once considered the But Imamoglu’s victory raises and referenda, the CHP did little AKP-imposed suppression of like things are finally backbone of AKP support such as the question of whether the CHP more than complain loudly. It that party’s politicians? Can it turning around for Beyoglu, Fatih and Uskudar. will now finally push on and decried military intervention in articulate to rural as well as Tthem. For years relegated to the Imamoglu has pledged that his show Turks it is capable of being Syria and the crushing of the free urban voters why Turkey’s sidelines as President Recep win heralds “[a] new beginning. I a political force nationwide. press but offered voters little involvement in costly conflicts Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling would like to say from here that Ankara, Izmir and now Istanbul, else. On the streets, its most in Syria and Iraq are as pointless Justice and Development Party as of tomorrow I will treat 16 Turkey’s three largest cities and fervent supporters would as they are damaging? Most (AKP) took centre political stage, million people (residents of the nation’s cultural and eco- proclaim their love and backing crucially, can it offer a way out CHP politicians are now in Istanbul) equally as mayor.” The nomic centres of gravity, are in for Ataturk’s secular vision and of the economic morosity for control of five of Turkey’s six resounding victory for Imamo- its hands. These recent victories lament the rise of the conserva- voters struggling with growing largest cities, with the June 23 glu, who pursued a campaign of also beg the question: Why has tive Islamist class, but declined debt? mayoral victory in Istanbul by inclusivity and reason in sharp the CHP performed so poorly on to take real action that would Whether it can overcome the contrast with the suffocating, the national scene? lead to change. Broadly, the CHP first and last of these challenges relentless message adopted by A political force since its failed to ignite the imagination of will decide whether the CHP’s the AKP on behalf of its candi- establishment by Mustafa Kemal the wider electorate. urban successes are a flash in the While it’s hard to see date, Binali Yildirim, speaks for Ataturk in 1923, the CHP is Now, even as the CHP domi- pan or amount to real political itself. Imamoglu’s campaign Turkey’s most storied political nates Turkey’s urban centres, its change for Turkey. the CHP winning over slogan, “Everything is going to be force. But for years, it has proved challenge is to convince all Turks Let’s not forget that the people the millions of largely fine,” spliced irony with an poor government material. Under it is capable of governing the of Istanbul have long memories. conservative voters in unashamed message of hope. its rule in the 1960s and 1970s, country as a whole — conserva- They backed the AKP in multiple The new mayor exploited the Turkey festered as an economic tives, the far right and secularists elections during the early 2010s, rural Turkey, it now fact that many Istanbul residents backwater, frozen by the fear of a alike. And while it’s hard to see despite their better judgements, has in its hands have tired of the round-the-clock takeover by the military. the CHP ever truly winning the because it delivered jobs, media coverage of imagined Under the AKP’s rule that hearts and minds of the millions housing and transport infrastruc- priceless political threats facing the country, be began in 2003, the CHP, in of largely conservative voters ture on an unparalleled scale. momentum. they exiled cleric Fethullah opposition, failed to articulate a inhabiting rural Turkey, it now They will view Mayor Imamoglu June 30, 2019 13 Debate Turks wonder if Istanbul vote was fatal blow to Erdogan Erdogan will continue to gamble — but with higher stakes

Yavuz Baydar

recent opinion poll in Turkey points to a historic change. According to the reli- able Turkish pollster Metropoll, President RecepA Tayyip Erdogan is “disap- proved” of by a majority of the population, marking a striking de- cline in the Turkish leader’s popu- larity. The percentage of those who expressed discontent with Erdogan recently rose by 2.7% to 45.9%, the poll indicated, while his supporters remain at 43.7%. A significant decline by 2.1 % points was noted among supporters of his Justice and Development Party (AKP). The trend is a reflection of Turkey’s post-election realities, with which Erdogan seems to have lost touch of considerably. Metropoll also concluded that 58% of Turkish citizens would prefer Turkey’s former parliamentary A new beginning? Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu addresses his supporters outside the City Hall system over the super-presidential in Istanbul, Turkey, June 27. (Reuters) system, established after a refer- endum in 2017, if it were repeated today. Nearly a two-third majority eted up voters’ anxiety across with Erdogan or his closest circles. of tea (a key consumer good in blames Erdogan’s palace as the the board about Erdogan and his Even in closed door meetings, it is Turkey), sugar and electricity rose. mother of all troubles that have team, simply because Turkish reported, those who express criti- Gasoline, crucial for rural produc- surrounded the country. citizens believe their votes are the cism have been told to shut up. tion, followed. A former top figure With his image fading and his only remaining tool they have to Instead, signs of resorting to Plan of the treasury, Hakan Ozyildiz, traditionally solid party, the AKP, express their political voice. B are growing. The AKP still holds warned the public in his blog that thrown into a somewhat rudder- Third, is the economy. De- a majority in the city council and, the Central Bank was preparing to less reckoning, the issue is how valuation, recession, inflation in a daring move, the government print banknotes. the strongman will react to the and unemployment have badly is now attempting to strip Imamo- Certainly, this is just the begin- storm in the near future, in terms hit Turkish households since last glu of his powers to appoint the ning. The citizenry will not be of economic and foreign policy autumn. ”Under the presidential managers of municipality-owned applauding these steps. crises. system in Turkey, citizens are companies. Plan B is clearly to par- Finding money is the most ur- There are no signs as to whether now aware that one-man rule alyse the new mayor and force him gent item on Erdogan’s agenda. Al- Erdogan has received a cool-head- under Erdogan has meant that to throw in the towel. This way, though he is stuck at almost every On the eclipse? Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29. (Reuters) ed analysis of why Istanbulites the president and his son-in-law, Erdogan will have gained time — he layer of domestic and foreign turned their votes against him Treasury and Finance Minister is in no hurry, he calculates — and policies and thrown into worthless by a margin widening from some Berat Albayrak, are still in denial will be able to damage Imamoglu’s solitude internationally, he will presidential elections on June 24, 13,000 to 800,000 in less than about the existence of an econom- popular image and disperse all hope that the United States, China 2018. That election ushered in a three months. ic crisis,” wrote Guldem Atabay, in the opposition’s hopes for a major or Saudi Arabia will extend a hand presidential system that critics say There are three reasons for that. her sharp analysis for Ahval News. challenge in the presidential elec- that will help him cling to power. has led to a one-man-rule under Er- First, the electorate felt a sense ”Furthermore, the motto ‘it’s the tions due in 2023. He shouldn’t bet on them fully. dogan and could be part of the rea- of injustice after the opposition economy, stupid!’ has failed to But in his miscalculation, And even the International Mon- son the AKP lost on June 23. mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, was de- resound among Erdogan’s team of Erdogan disregards the fact that etary Fund, if further bullied, can The result could increase ten- prived of his well-earned victory advisers and ministers, who seem his real opponent is the economy. make his life difficult. In short, a sions within the AKP. Bulent Turan, by the highly partisan Supreme only to exist to back up Erdogan’s Myopic and in denial, he doesn’t slow motion downfall of Turkey’s an AKP lawmaker from Canakkale Electoral Council (YSK). This own visualisation of the situation. realise that the austerity measures strongman seems in process. in western Turkey, said on Twit- seemed to be the last straw. So much so that they too appear to his government is forced to apply ter those responsible for the defeat Second, the way the ballot box have lost touch.” will lead to rapid deterioration Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish should be held to account. Mustafa system was used with undue Loss of touch continues. There of his rule. Indeed, immediately journalist and regular columnist Yeneroglu, another AKP member methods seems to have ratch- is no sign of humility to be noted after the Istanbul elections, prices for The Arab Weekly. of parliament, called for “self-criti- cism” and a return to policies con- centrating on “rationality, the rule of law, the separation of powers and What lessons will Erdogan learn from Istanbul vote? basic rights.” “whoever wins Istanbul, wins trust other people and the less rose from there as his AKP took Turkey.” He has ruled the country they have political heirs. So when power in the city a quarter of since 2003 both as prime minister they crash, they crash without a a century ago and he served as Claude Salhani and now president, becoming parachute. The only political con- mayor from 1994 to 1998. the most powerful leader since fidant Erdogan can call on today, Istanbul accounts for just short Will Istanbul results finally see Turkey’s CHP get it together? Mustafa Kemal, better known as following the departure from the of a third of Turkey’s GDP. It has he monumental defeat Ataturk, the founder of the mod- AKP of Gul and one or two other a $4 billion municipal budget no differently: drive down the of President Recep ern Turkish republic. party heavyweights, is his son-in- that spawns lucrative contacts. stubbornly high unemployment Tayyip Erdogan’s In his victory speech, Imamo- law, the current finance minister, The AKP has now lost control rate that lurks over the shoulder Justice and Develop- glu, of the Republican People’s but he has little of his charisma. of it. Imamoglu campaigned of the city’s youth or face being ment Party (AKP) in a Party, said the result marked a Already rumours in the po- partially on the allegations ousted at the next election. rerun election for the “new beginning” for both the city litical world across Turkey are that the AKP squandered the Imamoglu and the head of the Tmayorship of Istanbul represents and the country. He said his sup- starting to gather momentum public’s money. CHP, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, would a major setback for the Turkish porters had “fixed democracy.” with talk of this being With Istanbul now do well to remember that their leader. What is worse for Erdogan “We are opening up a new page the beginning of the in the control of the victory in Istanbul amounts to is that this event could snowball in Istanbul,” he said. “On this end for Erdogan. As Hoping to reverse opposition, it joins little more than a protest vote and lead to the breakup of the new page, there will be justice, we pointed out in other major Turk- against Erdogan – not an uncon- AKP, curtailing a 25-year run for equality, love.” these very pages the initial results in ish cities such ditional approval of their own Erdogan and his pro-Islamist Imamoglu added that he was in April: “It would March, which as Izmir and the policies and personalities. party. willing to work with Erdogan, be more appro- favoured his capital, Ankara, Millions of young residents of Hoping to reverse the initial saying: “Mr President, I am ready priate to call it a opponent, Erdogan now all in its Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir face results in March, which favoured to work in harmony with you.” milestone on the called for a revote, hands. Hope- tough financial times ahead, with his opponent, Erdogan called for Imamoglu had a little more road to the end.” but that only made fully, this much- housing costs rising far faster a revote, but that only made mat- than 54% of the vote while Yildi- Still, others are matters worse. needed political than wages. ters worse. rim, Erdogan’s candidate, took saying they do not change could see In his victory speech, Imamo- The renewed polls gave main 45%. underestimate Er- Turkey swing back glu spoke about how “we have opposition party candidate It did not take long for the ef- dogan’s ability to bounce from the dark side to join shown other countries who try to Ekrem Imamoglu a huge increase fect of his party losing Istanbul back and to reclaim what he once again the difficult march go down the road we were of more than 775,000 votes from to be felt by Erdogan. Like rats perceives to be rightfully his. towards democracy. choosing that it is no road at all.” his initial margin of 13,000. The leaving a sinking ship, key figures Imamoglu, 49, currently the Or it could be just a tactical Exactly which “road” that ends earlier victory was annulled after in Erdogan’s AKP are already talk- mayor of Istanbul’s Beylikduzu concession by Erdogan as cir- up being will decide whether the AKP alleged irregularities. ing about forming a new party. district, is a relatively late comer cumstances offered no other way Imamoglu is the man to take on The result ends 25 years of AKP Among those is the prominent to national politics. He was un- out until he manages to put his Erdogan in a presidential election rule in Istanbul as its candidate, Abdullah Gul. known to the vast majority of the grand old authoritarian strategy four years from now or, like so former Prime Minister Binali The authoritarianism espoused country’s 80.8 million people. back on track. From now until many of his predecessors, turn Yildirim, conceded to his oppo- by Erdogan has meant keeping Then there is also the sym- the 2023 presidential elections, it into a false dawn. nent. much of the power of govern- bolic and the emotional attach- is likely to be a bumpy ride. Erdogan wrote on Twitter: “I ment close to his chest. As is ment that goes with Istanbul. Stephen Starr is the author of congratulate Ekrem Imamoglu, often the case with leaders who The city, Turkey’s largest, with Claude Salhani is a regular “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to who has won the election based tend to fall into the same catego- a population of some 13 million columnist with The Arab Weekly the Uprising” and has lived in on preliminary results.” ry as Erdogan, the more authori- people, is also close to Erdog- and a senior fellow at the Syria and Turkey since 2007. Erdogan had previously said, tarian they become, the less they an’s heart. His political career Institute of World Affairs. 14 June 30, 2019 News & Analysis Maghreb ‘Historic’ Mauritanian elections contested by opposition Lamine Ghanmi April, has been locked in a power struggle between protesters de- manding political overhaul and Tunis army leaders who favour a more gradual change in leadership. auritania’s ruling party Libya is in the midst of a bloody candidate, Mohamed civil war pitting an Islamist-backed Ould Ghazouani, was government in Tripoli against a M elected president with rival administration in the east. 52% of the vote in June 22 elec- In early April, military strong- tions, ushering a rare peaceful man Khalifa Haftar, who is allied power transition in a country of- with the eastern government, ad- ten plagued by military coups. But vanced on the capital, Tripoli, to numerous opposition candidates “liberate” the city from what he rejected the outcome that brought said were “terrorists and militias” the former military general to pow- operating there. er, saying it amounted to “another In neighbouring Tunisia, eco- army coup.” nomic stagnation, lingering secu- The government launched a rity threats and political gridlock swift crackdown as opposition have caused widespread public protesters took to the streets, cut- discontent. There is a cloud of un- ting off internet access and deploy- certainty surrounding scheduled ing army soldiers and paramilitary parliamentary and presidential gendarmes. Officials said the un- elections later this year. rest was being orchestrated as part France hailed the elections in Trying to reassure. Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed (C) walks with Interior Minister Hichem of a “foreign plot aimed at under- Mauritania as a “historic demo- Fourati (L) outside the Interior Ministry headquarters near the scene of a suicide attack in the capital mining the country’s stability.” cratic moment” and praised the Tunis, June 27. (AFP) Scores of protesters were ar- “good proceedings of the presi- rested following the elections, in- dential elections.” cluding dozens from neighbouring European Union and African ob- states Mali, Senegal and Gambia. servers also praised the voting pro- “Police stations are filled by cess and said they noted no major Suicide bombings jolt detained protesters,” said law- flaws in how it was conducted. yer Fatima Mbaye, who heads the Mauritanian Association of Human Ghazouani and his allies Rights. “I’m surprised by the flare- seemed surprised by the Tunisia amid anguish up of such violence and crackdown by the authorities,” she added. measures and urged Authorities took steps to pre- authorities to respect the vent demonstrations from gain- rights of the opposition. ing traction. The foreign ministry over leader’s health summoned the Senegalese, Ma- “The European Union hails the lian and Gambian ambassadors, higher voter turnout in the elec- Lamine Ghanmi terrorism headquarters, injuring The attacks added another layer urging them to tell their nationals tions which proceeded in an at- four policemen. of gloom in Tunis streets on June to “refrain” from engaging in pro- mosphere of peace and calmness Tunisian media said the anti- 27, a day dubbed “Black Thursday” tests. and in conditions that were mostly Tunis terrorist elite force was exiting by many Tunisians. They coinci- The authorities also brought good,” the European observers the police complex to rush to the dentally occurred a couple of hours down the nation’s entire internet said in a statement. wo jihadist suicide bomb- scene in response to the first attack before it was announced that Presi- network in an attempt “to prevent The hotly contested election re- ers blew themselves up 10 when it was targeted by the suicide dent Beji Caid Essebsi “was taken images of security forces’ brutality vealed striking social and political minutes apart in the Tuni- bomber. seriously ill and transferred to the from circulating on social media,” transformations in Mauritania, a T sian capital, Tunis, killing Prime Minister Youssef Chahed military hospital in Tunis.” said Mbaye. desert nation where tribal and eth- a police officer and injuring eight told Tunisians from the front of the Communication adviser to the Ghazouani and his allies seemed nic loyalties are strong. people. Interior Ministry in the wake of the president Firas Guefrech described surprised by the measures and Ghazouani, who served as army The attacks heightened concern attacks: “Do not be afraid. Do not the veteran leader as being in “criti- urged authorities to respect the chief of staff before being nomi- about the country’s stability after be afraid. Stay together united.” cal condition” and in a later tweet rights of the opposition. nated defence minister last year, Tunisia’s 92-year-old president “There is no place for terrorist said Essebsi was “stable.” His campaign chief Lahcen Ould easily won the polls. Anti-slavery was rushed anew to the hospital in groups in Tunisia. Our war with The president’s son, Hafedh Caid Labet called on the government to activist Biram Ould Dah Ould critical condition on the same day. them is an existential war,” he said. Essebsi, said late June 27 that there restore internet access and free the Abeid finished second with only Concerns eased in the following Tunisia’s army and security forc- were “the beginnings of an im- detained protesters, including for- 18.58% of the vote, according to days after the president’s health re- es have faced threats from al-Qae- provement” in his father’s condi- eign nationals. results published by the Mauri- portedly began improving. da in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), tion. “If these measures are not taken tanian polls watchdog, the CENI The US-based monitor SITE In- which had been the main terrorist Parliament member Sahbi Ben swiftly, it means that the outgoing electoral commission. telligence Group said the Islamic group in the Maghreb before the Fraj said the president was able to president has decided to mar the He was trailed by former Prime State (ISIS) claimed responsibility emergence of the Islamic State speak later June 27. Caid Essebsi beginning of our five-year man- Minister Sidi Mohamed Ould Bou- for June 27’s double attacks that (ISIS) after 2013. was reported to have called the date,” he said. bacar, who received 17.87% of the targeted Tunisian security forces. minister of defence on June 28 to Interior Minister Ahmedou Ould vote, according to the official fig- The twin suicide bombings discuss the terrorist attacks. Abdallah said authorities had ures. were the first major deadly attacks The country was shaken Chahed, who paid a visit to the “foiled a plot aimed at undermin- Journalist Baba Hamidou Kane claimed by ISIS in Tunis since No- by concern over the ailing president, tried to reassure ing the security and the stabil- finished with 8.71% of the vote, vember 2015 when an extremist health of a president Tunisians, saying: “The president ity of Mauritania” that was “mas- while political newcomer Moham- blew himself up inside a bus car- widely seen as a is receiving the necessary care,” but terminded by invisible foreign ed Ould Moloud received 2.44%. rying presidential guards, killing 12 reassuring fatherly warned against the dissemination of hands,” without elaborating. The CENI made all voting results members of the elite force. figure amid the many “false and confusing information.” Mauritanian officials have been public in a bid to dispel allegations That attack followed Tunisia’s uncertainties clouding He was referring to a spate of er- especially critical of Gulf state Qa- of vote-rigging. deadliest extremist attacks, which tar, which they severed ties with Still, many of the defeated can- Tunisia’s horizon. roneous news reports and social struck at the heart of Tunisia’s key media posts claiming the president in 2017 over its alleged support for didates alleged the vote count was tourism sector in 2015. One at the was dead. terror. flawed and called for a more pre- Bardo Museum in Tunis claimed The terror groups are viewed by Reports of the president’s ill Outgoing president Ould Abdel cise tally from individual polling the lives of 22 people, and another jihadism experts as having been health sparked speculations over Aziz assailed Qatar at the end of stations. But they also maintained three months later killed 38 people attractive to disaffected young the political, electoral and constitu- the presidential campaign June 21 that their bid to overturn the re- in the coastal city of Sousse. people throughout the region, par- tional implications in case the high- over its alleged role in spreading sults would be peaceful and legal. Tunisia’s tourism has since re- ticularly in Tunisia, where authori- est executive office is temporarily or “ruin” throughout the Arab world. Division within Mauritania’s bounded with the government ex- ties were slow to respond to the permanently vacant. “Qatar’s government contrib- leading opposition parties pre- pecting a record number of tourist jihadists who began building sup- Constitutionally, if the Tunisian uted to the ruin of Tunisia, Libya, vented them from uniting behind arrivals of 9 million this year. port bases in 2012 when Islamist president passes away or is perma- Syria and Yemen,” said Ould Abdel one candidate. Security forces and the army party Ennahda was the main ruling nently incapacitated while in office, Aziz, adding that it had also spread Going forward, supporters of battled the jihadist threat by dis- party. he is replaced by the speaker of par- insecurity in the West through its the opposition argued they should mantling dozens of extremist cells, The twin bombings occurred in liament. support of “terrorism and extrem- negotiate with Ghazouani to reach jailing more than 2,000 individu- a tense political climate as Tunisia Caid Essebsi has been promi- ism.” a comprehensive reform agenda als suspected of terror links and is going through a pivotal year with nent in politics for six decades as “What Qatar has done in some that will bring stability and eco- forcing jihadists into their isolated elections scheduled in October and he served in top positions under Arab countries is equal to the nomic prosperity. hideouts in the mountainous areas. November. Tunisia’s modern founder, the late destruction that Nazi Germany Ghazouani, a career military of- The first June 27 attack took place The attacks could carry econom- President Habib Bourguiba and his caused in the past in Europe,” said ficial, is close to Ould Abdel Aziz at 10.50am when an assailant blew ic risks for a country that is still try- successor, President Zine el Abidine Ould Abdel Aziz. and was widely expected to suc- himself up close to a police patrol ing to impulse growth and employ- Ben Ali, who was toppled in a social “It is a great honour for me to ceed him. near the French Embassy at a busy ment since the 2015 attacks. The uprising in 2011. sever ties with Qatar. I did the Ould Abdel Aziz had said he city street in downtown Tunis, kill- bombers struck at the beginning of Caid Essebsi is widely seen by same with Israel.” would step down this year at the ing himself and a police officer and the high tourism season. most Tunisians as a reassuring fa- Mauritania’s transition of pow- end of his second term. injuring seven other people, in- Tourism Minister Rene Trabelsi, therly figure amid the many un- er could make it a model in the By peacefully handing over pow- cluding two police officers. who is credited with bolstering the certainties clouding the country’s Maghreb region, where many er, Ould Abdel Aziz would bring The second attacker blew him- recovery of the key sector, said the horizon. states are mired in political turbu- Mauritania closer in line with the self up 10 minutes later some 3 km attacks, which “can happen any- lence and leadership struggles. rest of West Africa and join African away, in front of the back door of al where in the world,” will not affect Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Algeria, which ousted former leaders working to instil demo- Gorjani’s judiciary police and anti- the performance of the sector. Weekly correspondent. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in cratic principles at home. June 30, 2019 15 News & Analysis Maghreb

Viewpoint Algeria’s generals fail to see turmoil’s toll on economy

On June 10, the umbrella professional organisation for companies in the building sector, the General Association of Francis Ghilès Algerian Entrepreneurs (AGEA), he international trade drew the attention of interim fair of Algiers has, for Prime Minister Noureddine decades, been one of Bedoui to the closure of 3,200 the most important companies in its sector since last dates on the country’s December and the resulting loss of economic calendar. The 265,000 jobs. Many other sectors Trise or fall of the number of that are dependent on imports domestic and international were already suffering from companies present offers a good government’s 2017 decision to rein barometer of the state of the them in, after the price of oil was economy. The sharp decline in the more than halved between 2014 number of foreign and national and 2016. The sharp slowdown in companies this year, let alone a economic output is hitting all sharp drop in the number of sectors, from white goods to visitors, bore witness to the electronics, car assembly plants, growing economic cost of General farming machinery and Ahmed Gaid Salah’s refusal to pharmaceuticals. countenance a credible transition The sheer complexity of the towards free and fair elections. system of import control put in Algeria’s economy has become place since 2017 has encouraged one of the major collateral victims opacity and corruption, all too of the witch hunt initiated by the often to the benefit of those close army high command, which has to the former presidential clan. put behind bars, in the most Many of its members are under arbitrary fashion, hundreds of house arrest or in pre-trial Prosecution overdrive. Workers carry signs in solidarity with Mourad Eulmi, the head of the private entrepreneurs and senior detention following the corruption Algerian family-owned firm SOVAC, a partner of Volkswagen AG, questioned in court about civil servants. clean-up campaign launched three corruption accusations in Algiers. (AFP) All state investment is currently months ago but many others who frozen, as is attribution of land for are bone fide entrepreneurs and industrial projects, while not linked to former President In the state sector, the CEO of to his alleged links with the former production unit but out of his advertising campaigns are put off. Abdelaziz Bouteflika have been the Banque Nationale d’Algérie head of security, General depth as head of an international This is all the more notable caught up in the alleged clean-up. who is also president of the Mohamed Mediene who is Gaid company where strategic decisions because the month of Ramadan is Names are often leaked to the bankers association (ABEF) and Salah’s bete noire and now need to be made on a daily basis. usually favoured to launch new media before the “culprits” are the former CEO of the Crédit languishes in jail. Sonatrach cannot be run on an consumer products. It is arrested, which violates existing Populaire d’Algérie are under lock The campaign to clean up “interim” basis without inflicted impossible to hazard what the loss laws. Arbitrary practices are the and key. The Ministry of Industry corruption looks increasingly like lasting damage on its reputation. of GDP growth and consequently name of the game. has seen four secretary-generals the settling of scores in the deep According to Rachid Sekak, a jobs might amount to so far. The On June 23, the prime minister come and go in three months and a state. If it continues it spells respected banker and economist, economy is exacting its revenge on set up an ad hoc commission, number of its senior staff have disaster.The failure of successive the myriad risks the current politics, as symbolised by a group under the authority of the minister been arrested or forced into early governments to diversify away uncertainty entails include of economically illiterate army of finance to help preserve the retirement. The senior civil service from the country’s quasi exclusive delayed payments, banks afraid to officers. interests (and jobs) of companies is living in fear of what comes next reliance of oil and gas exports (98% take any decisions, quantitative whose owner had been put under and sitting on its hands. Not only is of foreign income today, a figure restrictions on imports, a lock and key. Private Algeria’s international reputation unchanged from the 1970s), to devaluation of the dinar, an entrepreneurs view the prime being severely damaged but its allow private entrepreneurs the increase in inflation, a marked The economy of minister’s publicly stated concern capacity to attract foreign freedom to set up joint ventures increase in unemployment with all with utter contempt as he has no investors destroyed. between Algerian and foreign that entails in terms of social Algeria has become say in who is arrested. The Those businessmen arrested are firms on terms that are tensions and a fall in hard currency one of the major economy was already slowing a mixed bunch. Ali Haddad, the internationally acceptable has reserves, which have halved to before the demonstrations started former head of the employers’ seriously weakened the $79.9 billion between the end of collateral victims of but whole sectors risk being federation (FCE) was a member of economy. 2014 and the end of 2018. the witch hunt destroyed if the current wave of the presidential circle. His private No better symbol illustrates the Furthermore, the massive initiated by the army arrests continue. They include companies in the construction incapacity of senior generals to “checking” of tax returns of those who own the most sector were viewed among bona understand the huge damage they businessmen by the ministry of high command, which important car assembly plants: fide entrepreneurs as little more are inflicting on the economy than finance underway suggests a witch has put behind bars, Mahieddine Tahkout, who owns than scams. Issad Rebrab, on the what is happening in the oil and hunt. The economic illiteracy of CIMA Motors (Hyundai), Mourad other hand, has created dozens of gas sector. Following the dismissal Gaid Salah offers a textbook case of in the most arbitrary Oulmi who owns SOVAC (VW, companies, in Algeria, Europe and of the former head of Sonatrach, how best to damage Algeria’s fashion, hundreds of SEAT, SCODA), Hassan Larbaoui Africa and employs an estimated Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour, in economy. private entrepreneurs who owns GLOVIZ (KIA) and 13,000 people. He is a businessman April, the interim stewardship of Kamel Kherbouche (Tracteurs of repute with a clear strategy of the company has been entrusted to Francis Ghilès is an associate and senior civil Deutz). They employ 100,000 international expansion. His Rachid Hachichi, who is a fellow at the Barcelona Centre for servants. people. imprisonment probably owes more competent head of the oil International Affairs. LNA accuses Turkey after Gharyan battle, threatens to retaliate

Michel Cousins Turkish forces bombed LNA while local forces inside attacked The loss is a PR body blow for the has been supplying arms, notably positions and provided air cover and captured the LNA’s headquar- LNA – and, as such, a major propa- drones, to the GNA and which no for militias allied with the Tripoli- ters. The commander of the LNA’s ganda boost to the GNA. Over the longer even bothers to try and hide Tunis based government to retake the offensive managed to escape along past few weeks, numerous secu- this. town, he added. with most of his forces but it was rity organisations in the west of In a clear signal of where power n June 26, 12 weeks to the The Gharyan setback could be a one of the bloodiest battles to date Libya have announced a change of in eastern Libya lies, he has or- day since the Libyan Na- serious blow to the LNA’s ongoing since the LNA started its blitzkrieg loyalty, from the GNA to the LNA, dered the Beida-based interim tional Army (LNA) led by campaign aimed at capturing Trip- on Tripoli. According to the mayor clearly expecting an LNA victory. government of Abdullah al-Thani O Field-Marshal Khalifa Haf- oli. The LNA has said it is reviewing of Gharyan, now back home af- They and others elsewhere could to cancel all contracts with Turk- tar took control of the strategically its battle plans and that its push for ter almost three months of forced now reconsider their position. There ish companies, expel those in the located town of Gharyan ahead of Tripoli is proceeding normally. exile, nine men on the GNA’s side is also a real possibility that the country and suspend all flights to launching its offensive on Tripo- Located in the mountains some were killed in the fight, six of them LNA’s foreign supporters will feel a and from Turkey. li, it seems to have lost it to rival 80km south of the capital, Ghar- from Gharyan. Other reports indi- need to re-assess their relationship. The order will, of course, be ef- forces supporting the Tripoli-based yan was home to the LNA’s head- cate that some 50 were killed alto- It is not impossible for the LNA fective only in areas under the Government of National Accord quarters for the offensive and one gether. These would include two to retake the strategically-located LNA’s control and will have little (GNA). of its main supply bases. The LNA LNA officers, ten Tuareg LNA fight- mountain town, but it will be diffi- serious consequences other than The LNA accused Turkey of back- has also lost its field hospital, a sig- ers from Obari and an unspecified cult given its terrain and rival forc- possibly at the new power station ing the vast array of militias and nificant amount of weapons and number of Chadians fighting with es’ mentality. After having lost the at Ubari in southern Libya, built militant groups loyal to the GNA equipment and a prime supply and the GNA. area once in a surprise attack, local by the Turks and supposed to start and of helping them push the LNA communications route from the The LNA has downplayed the forces will be fully prepared for a production sometime in July. out of Gharyan. LNA troops were south of the country. significance of the loss, with its counter-offensive and well backed Far more serious is Haftar’s order ordered to attack any Turkish ves- It is a blow to its credibility, too. spokesman saying that its main of- up by the GNA. to his air force to attack any Turk- sels within Libyan territorial wa- It brings into question the LNA’s ca- fensive “is going well.” Some pro- The danger for the LNA is that ish vessels within Libyan territorial ters. pacity to defeat the GNA and even- LNA media have simply ignored the loss of Gharyan makes it highly waters. It is the closest to declaring LNA spokesman Ahmed al-Mes- tually take Tripoli. Why, it is being the news. Privately, though, there likely that GNA forces will follow war without actually doing so. But mari said the country had “come asked, was the LNA so unprepared is dismay and shock. up with an attack on Tripoli Inter- an attack on a Turkish ship would under illegitimate Turkish aggres- for an attempt by the GNA to seize “It’s a disaster,” said a leading national Airport. They have tried to almost certainly trigger a reprisal. sion” in recent weeks. back Gharyan, especially given the pro-LNA activist and political ad- take it several times in the past few The showdown threatens a major “Turkey has become directly in- knowledge that there were those viser who asked not to be named. weeks and failed. Now, though, the escalation and internationalisation volved in the battle (for Tripoli), there opposed to the LNA. It was a He questioned the LNA’s military LNA will be handicapped by the of the Libyan crisis. with its soldiers, planes, sea ships major miscalculation. capability. “If they couldn’t keep a loss of its supply lines. and all the supplies that now reach GNA forces outside the moun- small place like Gharyan, how are So far, Haftar’s response has Michel Cousins is an Misrata, Tripoli and Zuwara direct- tain town pushed forward, seizing they going to take and keep Tripo- been to hit out at Turkey, which in Arab Weekly contributor on ly,” al-Mesmari said. positions just to the north of it, li?” violation of the UN arms embargo Libyan issues. 16 June 30, 2019 Debate East West

Trump’s mixed messages on Iran sow confusion

Escalatory moves. US Gregory President Aftandilian Donald Trump holds up a signed S President Donald executive Trump seems to be order to all over the map increase when it comes to sanctions Iran policy. on Iran, On the one hand, accompanied UTrump wants to act as if he is the by Treasury tough new sheriff in town, Secretary sending more military assets and Steve personnel to the Gulf region and Mnuchin, warning Iran of “obliteration.” left, and Vice On the other hand, he seems to President be extending an olive branch to Mike Pence, Iran, stating on June 22 that if the at the White Iranians agree not to develop House, in nuclear weapons, “they are going Washington, to have a wealthy country…and June 24. (AP) I’m going to be their best friend.” These latter comments came in the wake of Trump’s decision not to retaliate militarily after Iran shot down an unmanned US drone. Trump claimed the US military was ready for a strike but he called it off in the final minutes when he learned that the Pentagon estimated that such a strike would probably cause about 150 Iranian casualties. Trump’s own policy from just a kudos for not attacking Iran even such a development. In their and other Gulf Arabs are upset Trump said he thought a few days earlier. from his political opponents, he view, why should they sit down over likely Iranian sabotage of oil retaliatory military strike would So how does one make sense of stated with great satisfaction: with the US president over tankers but, at the same time, do not be proportionate, especially this back-and-forth policy? “I’m getting a lot of praise for something that they initially did not want a war with Iran, which since no US citizen died in the Trump’s statements on Iran what I did.” But when Iranian not do? could witness Tehran lashing out downing of the drone. reflect his own contradictory leaders criticised him, he felt he Granted, the Iranians have now against them. They are wary of Trump did, however, place policies that he enunciated while had to double down in his verbal said they plan to exceed limits on events spiralling out of control to sanctions on the Iranian political campaigning for president in attacks on them. nuclear stockpiles and the point where if there are and military leadership, 2016. Another way to understand enrichment levels, but this indeed US-Iranian military including Supreme Leader He claimed that the 2015 Iran Trump’s policies is his belief that threat comes after Trump hostilities, their own economic Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian nuclear deal, signed between he can open a new chapter with pulled out of the 2015 deal infrastructure could be President Hassan Rohani said in Tehran and the five members of hostile countries by personal and threatened hit. response to the new sanctions the UN Security Council plus diplomacy, like his outreach with countries from doing Trump’s At the same time, that the Trump administration Germany, but mainly led by the North Korea. the Saudis, in business with Iran. statements on Iran has a mental disability. He added Obama administration, was the But Trump does not appreciate Hence, the particular, are that the Americans had become “worst deal ever negotiated.” He the nuances of history. Iran Iranians see reflect his own probably “desperate and confused,” a threatened to tear up the deal believes that as long as the United Trump’s contradictory befuddled by situation that has made them once he became president and States squeezes the Iranian opposition to policies that he Trump’s soft take unusual measures and “talk did just that in May 2018. The economy, particularly the halting Iran’s nuclear enunciated while approach towards nonsense.” belligerent side of Trump wants of oil exports, there is nothing to programme as a campaigning for Iran. His comment Trump responded in several to continue this aggressive talk about. Its leaders likely see ruse, believing president in 2016. that if the Iranians tweets with very aggressive posture towards Iran to either this as a replay of the early 1950s what he really give up their nuclear language: “Iran’s very ignorant force the Iranians to re-negotiate when the United States supported wants is regime programme he would and insulting statement, put out or foment regime change by his Britain in the embargo on Iranian change. The regime be “their best friend” today, only shows that they do policy of “maximum pressure.” oil, which not only crippled the hopes it can play the undoubtedly caused not understand reality. Any But Trump campaigned against Iranian economy but led to covert nationalist card at home to its heartache in Riyadh. They, like attack by Iran on anything the United States getting intervention in Iranian internal advantage by citing Trump’s others, are wondering which American will be met with great involved in costly wars in the affairs. aggressive policies and believes Trump it will be going forward — and overwhelming force. In some Middle East. This means he When Trump threatens Iran it can withstand this pressure the hawk or the dove? cases…obliteration.” wanted to denigrate Iran, rip up with “obliteration” for campaign. On June 26, This seems to suggest that even the nuclear agreement, but not supposedly developing nuclear Khamenei emphasised that Iran Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer another Iranian attack on a US go to war. weapons, this does not make would not back down in the face at the Pardee School of Global drone — with no US casualties – In addition, Trump loves sense to the Iranians because of US-imposed sanctions. Studies at Boston University and would be met with military adulation but responds poorly to they were adhering to the 2015 And what about American is a former US State Department might. This is a reversal of criticism. After he received nuclear deal, which precluded friends in the region? The Saudis Middle East analyst. Why Trump’s America seems increasingly powerless

Russia’s booming stock market administration’s single biggest subservient to Israeli needs.” “America and the World in 2054,” and currency, despite facing US initiative — the 96-page “Peace to Altogether, there is a growing Buttigeg offered a long-term view Rashmee sanctions for years. And the fact Prosperity” economic plan for the sense American foreign policy is of America’s place in the world. Roshan Lall that Nicolas Maduro is able to Palestinian territories — has discordant. Most countries are Its “greatest strategic advantage,” stay in power in Venezuela, in drawn excoriating criticism and working to the principle that he said, is that it “has stood for defiance of Trump’s attempt to enormous ridicule. “Instead of Trump administration values shared by humanity, he week started with remove him. self-determination,” read one pronouncements and diktats are touching aspirations felt far the Trump administra- All of the above gives the satirical tweet in reference to best dealt with diplomatic beyond our borders.” tion’s ill-judged impression of an ineffectual Trump and his son-in-law Jared niceties and action only when Interestingly, Buttigeg said he attempt to lure the American foreign policy, which is Kushner’s background in real necessary or in one’s self- picked 2054 as the vantage point Palestinians into failing to achieve Trump’s goals. estate and hotels, “could I interest. to view America’s engagement throwing away their Even America’s coercive power interest you in our The new mood to with the world because it is “the Tpolitical aspirations in exchange seems unable to guarantee results Premium Occupation Even America’s sidestep America is year in which I hope to retire, for the promise of $50 billion over — think Russia and Venezuela, as Plus package?” And coercive power seems not because its real after reaching the current age (73) a decade. It ended with the US well as Turkey and India’s Hady Amr, who unable to guarantee power is waning. of the current president.” president attending the G20 decision to buy Russian S-400 worked on former results — think Russia The United States Buttigeg missed, by one year, summit in Japan, where the host missile systems despite US US Secretary of and Venezuela, as well is still the world’s falling into the category of advanced a three-point global objections. And America’s ability State John Kerry’s as Turkey and India’s richest, most millennial — those born between cooperation agenda that goes to effect wholesale change in economic decision to buy powerful country. 1981 and 1996. However, it is his against the views of Donald global trends appears to be initiative for the Russian S-400 missile And the dollar generation that will live with the Trump. limited, going by disparate Palestinian people systems despite US continues to enjoy consequences of America’s rise or In between, France’s president, countries’ determination to from 2013 to 2017, what former French fall on the world stage. That is the Emmanuel Macron, declared pursue climate-friendly policies slammed the Trump- objections. President Valery context of his appreciation of himself unwilling to sign off on as well as plurilateral free trade Kushner plan’s blindness Giscard d’Estaing once American strength — “more than the G20 communique unless it deals. and insensitivity to the reality called the “exorbitant military power — it’s our power of mentioned the Paris climate In all sorts of ways then, of Palestinian lives. privilege” of serving as the inspiration.” agreement, which Trump Trump’s America is less Investment would be a “smart” main international reserve With all its other strengths withdrew from in 2017. commanding than before. thing “for the economy of an currency. intact, it is failure to inspire that And then there was Trump’s Two-and-a-half years into the ordinary country,” Amr said. “But If Trump’s America is failing, it is leaving Trump’s America war of words with Iran and the Trump presidency, his country is the Palestinian people don’t live is on another count. This was best increasingly powerless. unwillingness of Britain and neither able to reliably secure the in an ordinary country or described earlier this month by France to entertain American administration’s goals nor situation. For decades, the 37-year-old Pete Buttigeg, the Rashmee Roshan Lall is a requests to join in a military enforce unquestioning and abject Palestinian people have youngest candidate in a crowded columnist for The Arab Weekly. operation. obedience to its will. languished in quasi-autonomous Democratic field of contenders She blogs at www.rashmee.com Add to that the news about In fact, the Trump areas where their lives are sadly for Trump’s job. In a speech titled and is on Twitter @rashmeerl. June 30, 2019 17 Debate East West Britain rebukes Iran’s use of hostages as foreign policy tactic

His remarks earned Johnson These events expose Iran’s the accusation that his verbal insecurities. But they have not recklessness helped to expedite deterred its state media from Nazli Tarzi the spying charge that landed the advancing an audacious defence mother jail. of the decision to imprison Iran’s ambassador has Zaghari-Ratcliffe and the true he behavioural habit defended decisions reached in intentions of her visit to Iran two turned foreign policy her case, posting on Twitter: years ago. approach of hostage- “[I]f… you are not collaborating Opinion articles and online taking by Iranian with intelligence agencies” or commentaries protest the President Hassan “collecting classified information deadlock in Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s Rohani’s government from them, you may safely case and its apparent low rank on Tpreserves a rogue tradition that travel.” the government’s list of political extends to the 1979 hostage Iran proclaims adherence to priorities. crisis. pragmatism but is upping the Richard underlined during an Mob attacks, embassy raids ante through “continued interview with BBC that “if you and Iran-sponsored threat arbitrary detention” and point the finger at the UK, all you activity on British and European “mistreatment” of British are doing is exculpating those soil are no longer simply trails citizens associated with who are truly responsible, which but hallmarks of Iran’s high-risk government-associated is the Iranian Revolutionary foreign policy approach. institutions and “lack of access Guard.” In the last year, the rising to legal rights” to those An article published in the wave of an approach dubbed incarcerated on spying charges, Times late last year disclosed “hostage diplomacy” pushed as UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy details of a potential deal Westminster to issue stern Hunt wrote in May. spearheaded by Hunt to settle a warnings that indicate the risks Richard Radcliffe, Nazanin’s 400 million pound ($507 million) for dual nationals travelling to husband, has been staging his debt to Iran in exchange for her Low priority. Richard Ratcliffe holds a sign for his wife, Nazanin Iran. own peaceful protest outside the release. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, during his vigil outside the Iranian Embassy in Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Iranian Embassy in London in Although Britain remained London, June 16. (AP) former Thomson Reuters solidarity with his wife’s hunger relatively mute about Foundation staff member, and strike in exchange for snowballing hostilities between British Council employee Aras unconditional release. the United States and Iran, direct should relations maintain this proscribed in full by the UK Amiri, both taken in Iran, are the Richard has kept a daily video comments from Hunt and others tempo. government.” latest victims of Iran’s retributive diary. Speaking on day 11 about mark newfound courage by the The case of Zaghari-Ratcliffe Indirect actions or approach as sanctions raise the the policies politics and government to rebuke Iran for its exposes the self-limiting inconsistency on Britain’s part chances of domestic economic parliament can push for to assist hostage-taking industry. approach Britain has adopted, stimulated the view of the ban meltdown for Tehran’s obdurate “beyond Nazanin’s case,” he An expose in the Daily having failed to secure her and associated moves as the clerical rulers. urged focus on two aspects. Telegraph newspaper suggested release, despite calls from her country testing its luck at Iran accused the two British “One for Iranian audiences is that the UK government husband to “use aid for Iran to politicking. nationals of cooperating with the way Iran does use people as intentionally kept the public in free her,” the Independent The BBC’s diplomatic British intelligence. Zaghari- diplomatic leverage… and as the dark about an alleged terror reported. correspondent provided greater Ratcliffe, sentenced to 5 years in bargaining chips,” he said in a plot masterminded by Iran- Despite granting the depth to this argument over prison, and Amiri, sentenced to video posted on a page dedicated funded Lebanese outfit UK-Iranian dual citizen Twitter, stating that it “ticks 10 years in prison, are in Iran’s to the cause of freedom for Hezbollah that MI5 foiled after a “diplomatic protection” on many boxes” that gives “UK Evin Prison. Nazanin. tip from Israel’s intelligence arm, March 7, a decision slammed by something to say… pleases US At the time the UK’s Foreign Richard also added that the Mossad. some as too little too late, that and Israeli allies who want more and Commonwealth Office (FCO) government has not done Independent members of designation is not an pressure on Iran” and allows the posted online advising: “British- enough to protect the rights of Britain’s House of Commons are impenetrable shield that can conservative party camp to Iranian dual nationals against all British citizens held unlawfully raising scrutiny by quizzing the protect her against harm and “highlight Labour leadership travel to Iran; all British nationals overseas. government on why details of medical negligence in response sympathy for anti-Israel groups” should carefully consider the While Nazanin informed the raid were kept secret. to Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s hunger towards the aim of “look[ing] risks of travelling.” authorities of her hunger strike, In defying its own promises of strike, which she began tough in the leadership race.” In contrast to measured advice Iranian authorities responded by diplomatic engagement, January 14. Transparency is a welcomed from the FCO, the fires of Iran’s cancelling the mother’s weekly Tehran’s conduct will erode Britain is also accused of turn in Britain’s approach to fallacy over Ratcliffe were stoked visit to see her daughter and in surviving goodwill between both prolonging the move to proscribe Iran’s use of British hostages but by clumsy remarks from Tory London, embassy staff erected a countries whose relations Hezbollah, which was expedited the proscription of Iran-funded front runner for prime minister metal barricade between Richard improved only after the expiry of in February. The decision was militants and terrorists will not Boris Johnson. At the time, and the embassy as the pressure Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s welcomed by Hunt, who, on stand in the way of the use of then-foreign minister Johnson, mounts from the public and MPs presidency. Twitter, said: “We cannot and hostages as political cards. in tune with Tehran, wrongly from all parties that have been The desirability of will not turn a blind eye to alleged that the charity worker visited by the anguished rapprochement that Britain Hezbollah’s terrorist activities,” Nazli Tarzi is an Arab Weekly was training journalists in Iran. father. prefers will also face setbacks adding that “they will be correspondent in London. The new great game in the Eastern Mediterranean

more than once to enforce Djibouti indicates the growing administration support progress in establishing a Geoffrey Aronson claims to potential gas deposits potential for a Chinese naval Cyprus’s unfettered energy negotiating mechanism for the in waters off the Turkish and entry to the Mediterranean. development in the eastern resolution of Lebanese and high-stakes game Northern Cyprus coasts. Earlier this year, the Greek Mediterranean and the lifting of Israeli ownership claims along is unfolding in the How to respond to Cypriot government sealed a restrictions on arms sales to their maritime frontier. eastern Mediterra- developments that challenge deal with a consortium made up Cyprus. Those moves reflect the This dispute has festered for nean. Along the the West’s historical security of Dutch-British Shell, US growing importance to years but the urgency to resolve coast from Egypt domination and how to address company Noble Energy and Washington of security and it increased as the contest to to Turkey, new the exploitation of energy Israel’s Delek on the energy concerns in the eastern assert control over and exploit alliancesA and conflicts, driven resources in a manner that distribution of revenues from Mediterranean and Turkey’s gas reserves has grown. strengthens rather than estrangement from Washington Lebanon’s growing financial by competition over control of natural gas exploitation from tremendous gas deposits, are endangers broad cooperation the Aphrodite field. The on yet another key foreign worries have contributed to taking centre stage. among stakeholders will agreement allows for the policy issue. creating the best opportunity in Close, even intimate, increasingly engage exploitation of an offshore field The competition to exploit years to negotiate a resolution cooperation between Israel and international attention. that is estimated to hold 4.1 energy does not need to be a to Lebanese and Israeli Egypt on energy and therefore UN Secretary-General trillion cubic feet of gas. zero-sum game. The latest differences. security is one of the defining Antonio Guterres warned that Nicosia recently issued an encouraging example is the The contests in the eastern characteristics of this new era. exploratory drilling for international arrest warrant for US-led diplomacy to resolve Mediterranean are shaped by Egypt, once an energy hydrocarbon resources off the personnel of the Turkish competing Israel and Lebanese disputes rooted in 20th-century importer, plans to exploit its coast of Cyprus risks conflict. drillship Fatih and officials claims over offshore gas conflicts dominated by the reserves and pivotal geographic These developments from companies deposits that each is anxious to assertion of nationalist identity position to become an upset the maritime cooperating with the exploit. — notably between Cyprus and international energy hub. In status quo long state-run Turkish The two countries are in Turkey and Israel and Lebanon pursuit of this objective, it has dominated by the Petroleum dispute over an 860 sq.km area — but the current agenda settled outstanding energy United States and Along the coast Corporation. in Block 9, which is estimated to recasts them in an entirely new transport-related claims with NATO, from Egypt “Our Turkish hold large quantities of gas, dimension — defined by the Israel in its effort to export particularly in the to Turkey, kinsmen in similar to those of Israel’s prospect of earning billions of Israel’s growing surplus of security domain. new alliances Northern Cyprus Tamar field. dollars from the exploitation of natural gas. Today, Russia and and conflicts are also have rights Lebanon has awarded undersea energy resources. Natural gas from Israel’s Iran have secured taking centre according to exploration licences in Block 9 Energy and maritime security Tamar field is to begin flowing basing and stage. international law to a consortium of companies cooperation in the to Egypt June 30, using a commercial rights in the same way that includes Total of France, Mediterranean and beyond pipeline that had been used in in Syrian ports and that [Greek Cyprus] Eni of Italy and Novatek of between Israel and Egypt and the past to convey gas from Moscow won port- and has rights on all Russia. Israel awarded a licence broader efforts to increase Egypt to Israel. energy-related concessions resources in the region, be in the disputed zone to Delek coordination with Cyprus and Turkey and its ally the from both Lebanon and Syria. it oil or something else,” Drilling and Noble Energy. Greece in the face of growing Turkish Republic of Northern China’s Maritime Silk Road warned Turkish President Neither side is currently active Turkish opposition reflect the Cyprus increasingly find is focusing on establishing a Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “We will in the area. creation of new relationships themselves confronting an dominant Chinese transport and not allow these rights to be Managed by US State that are not defined by old emerging energy and security logistical presence all along the usurped by those who have no Department official David conflicts. These energy-related alliance that includes Egypt, Mediterranean coast, including business [there].” Satterfield, a patient, quiet and considerations will increasingly Greece, Cyprus, Israel and the the ports of Piraeus (Greece) and Erdogan’s protests count for persistent US-led diplomatic define the region and the policy United States. Turkish naval Haifa (Israel). The Chinese naval little in Washington. The US effort — unique in the Trump agenda as the century vessels have been dispatched presence in the Red Sea port of Congress and the Trump administration — is showing progresses. 18 June 30, 2019 Economy Saudi Arabia

Transformative reforms promise Briefs Russia, Saudi deal shows commitment ‘bright future’ for Saudi economy to oil market stability – Novak

Caline Malek supported by the inclusion of Saudi Russia’s deal with Saudi Arabia on Arabia in the FTSE and MSCI Emerg- crude production cuts shows their ing markets index, which allows commitment to stabilising the oil Abu Dhabi most global pension funds and in- market, Russian Energy Minister stitutional investors to invest in the Alexander Novak said in a statement xperts foresee a bright eco- Kingdom,” Widdershoven said. “By on June 29. nomic future for Saudi Ara- opening up the economy, a wider Russia has agreed with Saudi Ara- bia based on a positive report approach to investments in non-oil bia to extend by six to nine months E of its general budget perfor- related sectors is generated, bringing a deal with OPEC on reducing oil mance for the fiscal year released by additional jobs for Saudis and espe- production. the Saudi minister of finance. cially for women.” (Reuters) For a country that relied on oil for He spoke of a need for up to 6 mil- more than 75% of its national budget lion new jobs, without which no real at the time of oil decline in 2014, the changes can be made. “The need for crisis has brought an opportunity for change is clear, due to high youth Saudi Arabia to reinvent itself. The unemployment, low non-oil-related Saudi Arabia recent report showed Saudi Arabia income and future budget deficits, if launches special has improved its public finance per- this is not done,” he added. formance thanks to reforms aimed at Additional measures are being tak- residency scheme to economic diversification and fiscal en to reduce overall subsidy levels boost revenue sustainability. on energy, food and other products. High hopes. Saudi women stand next to the Saudi pavilion (Vision Some of the factors included trans- At the same time, the energy sec- Saudi Arabia introduced a new 2030) at the Gitex 2018 exhibition at the Dubai World Trade Centre parency and disclosure, as well as a tor is going through a wide change, special residency scheme aimed in Dubai, October 16, 2018. (AFP) strengthening public fiscal govern- due to an emphasis on renewables, at luring wealthy expats as the ance. Total revenues, for instance, substituting oil and gas power gen- petro-state seeks to boost non-oil jumped from $44.3 billion to $67.8 eration by solar and wind or nuclear, revenue. billion from the same period last year. which frees up cash in due course. had immediate positive impacts on steps taken by Saudi authorities to The scheme offers a perma- Credit rating agencies Moody’s According to Helmi Hamdi, a re- the economy,” Hamdi said. “Gov- implement changes and reforms nent residency for 800,000 riyals and Fitch have also rated Saudi Ara- search fellow at the CERGAM Aix- ernment non-oil revenue increased have been impressive, although he ($213,000) and a 1-year but renew- bia as having a stable outlook thanks Marseille University, oil prices have remarkably during the past three expects it will take decades to gauge able residency costing 100,000 to its economic reforms, as the gov- been declining drastically since June years and by 46% in the past year. their effectiveness. riyals ($27,000), the online portal ernment aims to achieve fiscal bal- 2014, shifting from $115 per barrel to The introduction of a value added New investments in mega-pro- for registrations stated. ance by 2023. $27 in January 2016. The drop was tax in January 2018 also generated jects, such as the $500 billion-futur- The scheme will allow expats “Some of the main developments considered an all-time low due to an a considerable amount of revenue istic city NEOM, are also predicted to do business without a Saudi [witnessed in Saudi Arabia] include oversupply of oil in the market. “The to the government and a fiscal sur- to transform different aspects of the sponsor, buy property and spon- a diversification of the overall econ- Saudi economy is heavily financed plus of $7.5 billion was achieved in Saudi economy. “We argue that Sau- sor visas for relatives, the website omy, mainly to wean it off its hydro- by oil revenues,” he noted. “In 2014, the first quarter of this year, which di Arabia as we knew it over the past said. carbon addiction,” said Cyril Widder- oil represented more than 90% and is the first quarterly surplus since at 30 years would not exist in 10 years,” Analysts said the programme shoven, director of VEROCY, a Dutch 80% of fiscal and export revenue, re- least 2016.” he explained. will largely benefit wealthy Arabs consultancy advising on invest- spectively. Hamdi said those reforms were More catalysts with major IPOs who have lived in Saudi Arabia for ments, energy and infrastructure “This weighty reliance on energy “crucial and inevitable” for the Saudi and reforms are expected down the years without permanent resi- risks and opportunities in the region. revenues is relatively a result of the economy and households alike in or- road, as foreign inflows of $1.6 bil- dency or multinational companies “The latter is needed to address modest progress Saudi Arabia has der to generate additional revenues, lion were witnessed in 2018, despite seeking to do long-term business the kingdom’s future after the oil made in diversifying its economy reduce the sudden shock in oil pric- geopolitical tensions late last year, in the kingdom. and gas era, as the current economy away from energy sector resources.” es, further diversify the economy showcasing strong investor confi- totally depends on oil revenues,” he The sharp and continuous drop of and ensure that the next generation dence in the country. “The kingdom (Agence France-Presse) said. oil prices has pushed Saudi policy- is safe from oil price volatility. “This is moving from a passive to a proac- Opening up 100% ownership of makers to rethink their spending and is a great achievement showing that tive approach at all levels, from poli- foreign-owned companies inside revise their policies. the kingdom is currently walking on tics and social to economics,” Mon- Saudi Arabia was another factor he In April 2016, Crown Prince Mo- the right path,” he added. chau concluded. Libyan oil firm warns mentioned, as well as IKTVA — In hammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz “I expect the ongoing reforms “The goal is for the country’s ma- Kingdom Total Value Added — a announced Saudi Vision 2030, which to achieve their goals of creating jor cities to be at the same level as disrupting sector strategy to promote manufacturing consists of various economic and so- 450,000 non-government jobs and other major international cities and would fuel conflict and operations inside the country, cial reforms aimed at modernising reducing Saudi unemployment to for that to happen, Saudi Arabia is a which has added jobs and income to the Saudi economy and ensuring fis- 9% by 2020 — a bright future.” place investors do not want to miss.” the national economy. cal sustainability. For Charles-Henry Monchau, Libya’s National Oil Company has “The main improvements are al- “The benefits of their implemen- managing director of asset manage- Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly warned that any bid to tamper with ready seen in investment sectors, tation were seen very quickly as they ment and CIO of Al Mal Capital, the correspondent in Abu Dhabi. the sector could escalate unrest in the conflict-hit country, after the Viewpoint parliamentary speaker called for a halt to production. In a statement issued June 22, NOC said it “is concerned by recent Egypt seeks Saudi investments in its new cities calls for the shutdown of national oil production.” an ongoing basis to keep real estate capital, so the Egyptian government demand for residential units on an “Any deliberate disruption of speculation fever low. sought developers in Saudi Ara- ongoing basis. oil sector operations will severely Mohamed Developers must pay 10% of the bia. The real estate sector accounts for impact national revenue streams, Hammad total value of the land purchased in The Central Agency for Public about 22% of Egypt’s GDP. To potentially render NOC in contra- advance as a guarantee for a deal. To Mobilisation and Statistics said net revitalise the sector, the govern- vention of contractual obligations, increase the government dollar Saudi investments in Egypt during ment introduced amendments to and create further division in the gyptian officials have reserves and in the case of compet- the second quarter of the current laws granting citizenship to country.” taken a large Saudi ing offers, preference would be fiscal year rose 44.1%, compared to foreigners who want to buy luxury delegation on a tour given to companies that pay in US last year. properties in Egypt. (Agence France-Presse) highlighting real estate dollars through foreign sources. The Ministry of Investment and Fathallah Fawzi, chairman of the investment opportuni- Hamad bin Ali al-Showair, International Cooperation pointed real estate committee at the ties to accelerate the chairman of the National Real Estate out that real estate development Egyptian-Saudi Business Council, Epace of construction in new cities, Commission at the Council of Saudi was second in Saudi investments in said negotiations with Saudi Morocco’s sole oil especially the administrative Chambers of Commerce, said Saudi Egypt after the industrial sector. companies wishing to invest in the refinery battles for capital and Alamein. Arabia was interested in real estate The construction sector was third. administrative capital and Alamein The dominant features of the investment projects in the adminis- Ahmed Zaki Abdeen, president of projects were under way. survival administrative capital are govern- trative capital and Alamein. the new administrative capital, He said that surveys conducted ment buildings and infrastructure “The architectural and building stressed that Cairo was prepared to during the past two years revealed Three years after it was liquidat- while Alamein, on Egypt’s northern style in the new cities is consistent grant land to Saudi investors at that 70% of real estate purchases in ed for racking up billions of dollars coast, is designed for vacationing with the interests of Saudi compa- preferential prices. Egypt are concentrated in various worth of debt, Morocco’s sole oil and entertainment. Its housing nies, in addition to the facilities and He said 80% of the infrastructure projects at the administrative refinery and one-time economic units are designed with wealthy promises to grant land at preferen- and utility works had been com- capital, increasing opportunities for flagship is struggling to attract a foreign buyers in mind with prices tial prices to Saudi investors, all of pleted at the first construction site the expansion of real estate invest- buyer and survive. starting at $1,800 per square which will further boost investment which covers 16,800 hectares. The ment there. A self-declared “national front” — metre. during the coming period,” Showair total area of the administrative Despite the positive atmosphere comprising employees, economists The Saudi delegation included said. capital, 45km north-east of Cairo, is of the Saudi delegation’s visit, and union leaders — is leading the representatives of nearly 50 Investing in real estate in the new 71.5 hectares. attracting investment in real estate charge to salvage refining company construction and real estate cities requires developers with Abdeen pointed out that all development from Saudi Arabia SAMIR, while a trade court desper- development companies. The substantial financial capabilities. ministries and the headquarters of runs the risk of colliding with the ately seeks a new owner. Egyptian government did not The Egyptian government requires the presidency would be transferred Saudi NEOM megaproject, which is They face a tough battle, includ- skimp on offering advantages to that the winning companies to the new capital next June. About expected to cover an area of 26,500 ing a court deadline of July 18 to prospective investors to encourage complete the project and pay for the 50,000 employees from all the sq.km with investments amounting seal the refinery’s fate. them to invest. land in full within four years. The ministries will be relocated to the to about $500 billion The firm was liquidated in 2016 During his meeting with the company then would have to sell the new administrative capital. Larger Saudi companies may turn after it was unable to honour some delegation, Egyptian Minister of residential units built in instalments Studies indicated that Egypt their attention and investments to $4.5 billion at current price in bor- Housing and New Urban Communi- of up to eight years. needs to build 600,000 housing NEOM, reducing chances of rowing. ties Asim al-Gazzar introduced a The government’s conditions units per year while 250,000 units investments outside the kingdom. mechanism to provide land to earlier led several local companies are currently being built. With the (Agence France-Presse) developers in accordance with their to withdraw from bidding on population growing at 2.5% per year, Mohamed Hammad is an Egyptian wishes. Land would be provided on projects at the new administrative there is expected to be increased writer. June 30, 2019 19 Economy Maghreb

Growing confidence attracts more foreign investment in Morocco

portant means of export promotion for most countries, especially those Mohamed of manufactured goods. For Mo- al-Alaoui rocco, these zones represent about 60% of the net non-oil exports. In a new initiative that reflects he significant jump in the solidity of the Moroccan busi- foreign direct invest- ness climate, the Casablanca Finan- ment in Morocco cial Pole and the World Financial confirms the growing Centre in Toronto, Canada, signed a confidence of interna- partnership agreement to promote tional corporations in sustainable investment opportuni- Tthe country’s business climate. ties between Canada, Morocco and Morocco ranked fourth in Africa in the rest of Africa. their amount in the latest ranking According to Manal Bernoussi, by the UN Conference on Trade director of strategy, marketing and and Development (UNCTAD) communications at Casablanca thanks to last year’s whopping Finance City, this “agreement 36% increase over 2017 to reach will open the door to exploring $3.6 billion, primarily in the opportunities for cooperation finance and automotive sectors. between North America, Morocco Data show that the flow of for- and Africa.” She also noted that eign investment to North Africa in- this new partnership with the Ca- creased by 7% to reach $14 billion, nadian financial institution would the largest share of which went to allow Casablanca’s financial pole Egypt and Morocco, while Algeria to reinforce its network of partners and Tunisia received between $1 and strengthen its international billion and $2 billion in invest- cooperation. ments. The agreement reflects both UNCTAD said Morocco con- Rabat’s interest in the Canadian tinues to benefit from a rela- market and the attractive- tively stable economic ness of the African performance, in addi- continent to investors New momentum. Moroccan King Mohammed VI (C) during the opening of a car assembly line at the tion to having a di- Last year, Morocco from North America. Kenitra PSA Car Assembly Plant, June 20. (AFP) versified economy witnessed a 36% The agreement will that is appealing increase in foreign provide a platform to foreign invest- investments to to promote best improving,” said Reynolds during Moroccan Minister of Economy of a sufficient and good supply ment in finance, reach $3.6 billion, practices in green the signing ceremony. and Finance Mohamed Ben- of leased properties in the areas renewable energy, primarily in the financing and American corporation Keller Wil- chaaboun said the activity of these of trade, services, industry and infrastructure and finance and environmentally liams, a global real estate network, agencies will contribute to mod- hotels, as well as mobilising new financial resources for companies the automotive automotive sectors. friendly infrastruc- recently announced that it had ernising financing methods and industry. ture, in addition to chosen Morocco as a new centre instruments and will help create a and helping them restructure their The largest invest- sharing knowledge and for its business. The company said dynamic in the financial markets so financial positions. ment made last year in expertise to accelerate it would launch its business from that the latter can play their role in Nezha Hayat, head of the Moroc- the country was the acquisi- the development of profes- Casablanca after being encouraged mobilising savings and using them can Capital Markets Authority, said tion of 53% of Saham, Mo- sional, educational and training by Morocco’s previous ranking on efficiently in investment. the launch of the initiatives is part rocco’s largest insurer, for $1 programmes in finance. the 2018 Africa Investment Index, The agencies operate according of a strategy to diversify financial billion by the South African Sanlam Jennifer Reynolds, president & issued by the international group to strict rules in terms of govern- instruments that respond to the Group. CEO of Toronto Finance Interna- Quantum Global Research Lab, as ance, supervision and investment, needs of investors. These initiatives African countries, including tional, said that through coopera- the most attractive destination for making them modern investment are “a key backing of real estate fi- Morocco, are increasingly relying tion with Casablanca’s financial business. tools of high quality. They also nancing and constitute an essential on special economic zones, includ- hub, her company will facilitate In order to ensure the develop- meet the needs of some companies stage in implementing the specific ing free zones, with the availability the exchange of information and ment of the future structure for in terms of long-term investment vision for developing capital mar- of 237 such areas on the continent expertise to create new opportu- investments, the Moroccan govern- backed by real estate assets based kets in order to effectively contrib- providing a special tax environ- nities for enhanced international ment has launched the activity on rental income, as well as provid- ute to financing the economy,” she ment to attract foreign investment cooperation. “Africa is one of the of collective real estate agencies, ing flexibility in terms of access to said. in various value-added industries. fastest growing economic regions as this type of move has proven various real estate markets. According to UNCTAD, special in the world and its trade and in- effective globally as an investment These agencies are expected to Mohamed al-Alaoui is a Moroccan economic zones represent an im- vestment relations with Canada are mechanism. contribute to the development writer. Tunisia is betting on smart airports to boost economy

the Tunisian government is access to airspace.” the aviation sector. operator Orange, a smart phone seeking to accelerate the develop- He explained that the safety of Despite controversy over the application that provides instant ment of airports, ports and air transport is an absolute pace of reforms, there appears to data about all flights in all of Riadh Bouazza transport infrastructure to priority of the government and all be an exceptional determination Tunisia’s airports. enhance the business climate and Tunisian airports were to be by the Tunisian Ministry of Last year, the government drive growth from the portal of equipped with modern techno- Transport to implement require- announced a strategy to develop unisian authorities the tourism industry. logical systems, in addition to ments of the Convention on the tourism industry through the announced details of Resorting to smart solutions training workers on using digital International Civil Aviation and rehabilitation of 124 hotel units strategic plans to turn will enhance passenger comfort tools. include their provisions in and began the first phase of the country’s airports and help the Tunisian Civil Studies indicate that about 80% domestic regulations, as well the expansion of Tunis into smart entities, a Aviation and Airports Authority of airports around the world will as the implementation of Carthage International move officials are (OACA) reduce costs by about invest in wireless signal systems principles governing Airport to accommo- Tbetting on to increase the number 25%, officials said. and other technology in the next civil aviation activi- date more visitors. of foreign visitors to the coun- Transport Minister Hichem Ben few years, allowing passengers to ties in general. Tunisian To implement the try. Ahmed said Tunisia “had devel- expect safer flights. Some say the officials are development Officials are convinced the oped a flexible aeronautical infor- Tunisia aspires to keep abreast idea of ​​moving to convinced that the plan, the govern- tourism sector is of vital impor- mation management plan for air of international developments in smart airports, tourism sector is of ment placed high tance for the faltering local traffic management that reduces this area. The Convention on following the vital importance for hopes on the economy and its development operational costs and environ- Open Skies necessitates the principle of the faltering appointment of a mental effects while improving adaptation of new technology in sustainable new minister of must be accelerated to strengthen economy. the Central Bank of Tunisia’s development and tourism during the reserves of hard currency. any environmental latest cabinet Ghassen Mahfoudhi, president orientation that meets reshuffle. Indeed, the of the Tunisian Association of the needs of future appointment of Rene Aeronautical Information generations, requires huge Trabelsi as minister of Administrators, said, at the investment that would attract tourism created a media buzz opening of the 12th International more visitors. because he is the second Tuni- Aviation Information Association The tourism industry contrib- sian of the Jewish faith to hold a meeting in Tunis, that Tunisia utes about 8% of Tunisia’s GDP ministerial portfolio since the issued international tenders in and is one of the most important country’s independence in preparation for the digitisation of sectors because it provides the 1956. airports. largest number of jobs after the Economists said that the Mahfoudhi said it was about agricultural sector. Data indicate tourism sector has become the “buying an advanced digital that 400,000 people work in the only exception to changing system and moving from a sector. Tunisia’s economic equation, system of service of aviation The government hopes the following leaps in revenues since information to managing aviation Open Skies Agreement will the terrorist attacks in the information.” He did not divulge increase the number of passen- country in 2015. The stability of the cost of the project. gers through Tunisia’s eight the security situation since 2016 Air transport experts said smart airports to about 20 million in the encouraged the sector to boom airports will revolutionise the next decade. Data from the OACA and it is on its way to recovery way passengers are moved as gov- at Tunisian airports show a rise of thanks to the reform policy, ernments allocate larger budgets 7.14%, compared to the previous which the government hopes will to expand airports and support year, in the number of passengers affect other sectors. their infrastructure with state-of- Still a way to go. A Tunisian couple bound for London pack away in 2018 to 8.3 million. the-art technology. their electronics in their luggage as they check-in for a flight at Two years ago, OACA devel- Riadh Bouazza is a Tunisian Through “Smart Tunisia 2020,” the Tunis-Carthage International Airport, March 25, 2017. (AFP) oped, with French mobile phone writer. 20 June 30, 2019 Society Saudi Women Saudi women, a year after driving reform Agence France-Presse

Riyadh

audi Arabia on June 24 marked one year since it al- lowed women to drive for the S first time, a flagship reform as the petro-state seeks to overhaul its ultra-conservative image. But a number of policies remain in place that leave male relatives in charge of major decisions affecting women’s lives. Here is where the kingdom stands on five key issues:

Education Saudi Arabia’s so-called guardi- anship system places the legal and personal affairs of women in the hands of their fathers, brothers, husbands and even sons. Women require the formal per- mission of their closest male rela- tive to enroll in classes at home or to leave the country for classes abroad. In July 2017, Saudi Arabia’s edu- cation ministry announced girls’ schools would begin to offer physi- cal education classes for the first time, providing they conform with Islamic law. The ministry did not specify whether girls would need permis- sion from their guardians to take part. Saudi Arabia has several women- only universities. In the driver’s seat. A Saudi woman practises driving in Riyadh. (AFP)

Employment Restrictions the guardian- allowing women to apply online for political freedoms. In January, the Saudi justice min- Public spaces ship system has long imposed on their own business licences. The Several women’s rights activists, istry said courts were required to In January 2018, women were women’s employment have been Saudi police force now also em- including veteran campaigners for notify women by text message that allowed into a special section in loosened as Saudi Arabia tries to ploys female officers. the right to drive, were detained their marriages had been terminat- select sports stadiums for the first wean itself from its dependence on just weeks earlier and later put on ed, a measure apparently aimed at time. They had previously been oil. Travel, driving trial on a host of charges, including ending cases of men getting a di- banned from attending sporting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Women still require a male guard- speaking to foreign journalists. vorce without informing their part- events. Salman bin Abdulaziz, named heir ian’s permission to renew their ners. Saudi Arabia has also reined in its to the throne in June 2017, has pro- passports and leave the country. Personal status infamous morality police, who for moted an economic plan known as But on June 24 last year, women Under the guardianship system, decades had patrolled the streets “Vision 2030,” which aims to boost took the driver’s seat for the first women of all ages require the con- On June 24 last year, on the lookout for women with un- the female quota in the workplace time in the kingdom’s history. sent of their male guardian to get Saudi women took the covered hair or bright nail polish. from 22 to 30% by 2030. While the end of the driv- married. driver’s seat for the first Some women in the capital, Ri- King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al ing ban was largely welcomed, it A man may divorce his wife with- time in the kingdom’s yadh, and other cities now appear Saud, his father, has signed decrees did not signal an opening up of out her consent. history. in public without headscarves. Writer, film-maker telling the region’s untold stories

Caline Malek phants,” Taibah writes in English. have to feel it in your body, like a “I experimented with a lot of art hum that feels right and that has mediums and different fields be- enough juice for you to go to the Dubai cause it was hard for me to accept end,” she said. “It took me a while that it’s possible to just be a writer. to learn that and discern it.” aram Taibah, a writer It took me a long time to get to this Although there were many Saudi and film-maker, has set point but I’ve always loved cinema female writers in the 1990s, a buzz out to tell the region’s and I wanted to merge my writing has been triggered in the industry, M Middle East’s untold with my visual side, so it felt like a with many more Saudi readers and stories through her passion for perfect combination,” she said. writers coming up. writing, while helping other Saudis Taibah grew up in Riyadh before “It’s much easier to proliferate achieve their own writing goals. finishing her education in Jeddah. content and share ideas than it was A few years ago, Taibah said she Following her time in the United before,” Taibah noted. realised that she had lived most of States, she moved back to the king- “Because books get attention her 20s in paralysing fears, which dom to experiment with screen- through word of mouth, very often led her to travel to Cancun, Mexico, writing and film and worked with that’s the main source of attention. despite concerns about safety. She young writers as a mentor. Right now, it’s much easier to com- later studied in the United States. “There was a lot of experimenta- municate with people and share Her travels became about excavat- tion,” she explained. “I had a travel content online. Readership has be- ing her most authentic self, facing blog as well that was up for a few come unsurprisingly wider from her endless fears and searching for years and I started writing on a TV what I hear from experts.” the truth — her truth, at least. show, which is not in production She described reading books as yet, but it’s been a baby of mine the point where it all starts. that’s growing in the dark.” “Writing instructors all over the Having started several Taibah is writing a fantasy novel world will drill that into you and I projects, Taibah argued that and planning to publish a fantasy The secret to creativity. Saudi writer and film-maker Maram Taibah. honestly agree,” she said. “I find a the most crucial element of novella in the coming months. (Courtesy of Maram Taibah) lot of people wanting to write with seeing any plan through is “When I first returned to Saudi amazing stories but they either get Arabia, it was a bit quieter than it tied up when they sit down or don’t for it to come from the heart is now,” she said. “I am discovering “It’s becoming something and I For the young writer, consistency have the language and you need and to feel it in the gut. more and more writers here in the hope more support will show up. has been key. both to tell a good story.” kingdom. There are communities There is some [support] from dif- “A lot of writers struggle with not She advises prospective writ- Taibah said she found her way at of writers in the country and peo- ferent resources and I personally having the muse today,” she said. ers to enrich their vocabulary and a young age through film-making, ple with brilliant ideas.” like to support writers but it’s be- “Some days, you just have to sit language by reading well-known after earning a master’s degree in She spoke of a lack of mentor- coming a more open space.” down and write. It’s going to feel writers and absorb the art of story- film from Boston University. She ship for English writers during her She conducts workshops in Sau- dry and you’re going to be scratch- telling so it can come through more created two successful short films time growing up in Saudi Arabia, di Arabia as well as online writing ing your head and then a break- intuitively rather than “crack into and decided to give back to young which she mentioned as her main events while coaching a few writers through just happens because you something” that has not had a lot of Saudi writers by becoming a full- obstacle. in their creative process. showed up.” time spent on it. time creative writing coach in the “I didn’t have a mentor,” Taibah “I coach about six people at the Having started several projects, “Writing is a form of expression kingdom. noted. “I didn’t have anybody who moment,” she said. “It all started she argued that the most crucial el- and storytelling is so intrinsic in our “I have been writing since I was was there for me to read my work when I used to coach my cousins ement of seeing any plan through is lives. It’s part of our DNA,” she said. a child and I have always wanted constantly and give me feedback when I was much younger in col- for it to come from the heart and to “Human existence won’t continue to be left alone to tell stories,” said and that’s the case for a lot of peo- lege and they are writers as well. It feel it in the gut. without storytelling and, in the re- Taibah, a 32-year-old from Saudi ple. Now, it’s opening up and peo- grew last year and became some- “It’s not enough to have a good gion, we have so much content and Arabia’s west coast. ple are starting to admit to them- thing that I packaged as a [ser- idea and not all of them will come so many untold stories. I think it’s Author of “The Road to Ele- selves that they want to be a writer. vice].” through from your soul, so you time we tapped into them.” June 30, 2019 21 Society Health Making dreams of critically ill Lebanese children come true

Samar Kadi wishes since it was established in 2005 after founder Diala el Fil lost her son in an accident. Beirut “El Fil wanted to do something positive by bringing a smile to the eeting their football face of suffering children fighting idols, visiting Disney- death,” said Tamanna Executive land Paris, going on a Director Soraya Barbir. “We grant M plane or stepping into a the wishes of children regardless of soldier’s shoes for a day are some of their nationality, religion or socio- the wishes that critically ill children economic background as long as have been able to fulfil with the help they are being treated here in Leba- of Lebanese NGO Tamanna. non.” In partnership with Air France Many of the children are Syrian Lebanon, Tamanna — “Make a or Palestinian refugees, in addition Wish” — is hoping to make dreams to Lebanese who are often from an Extraordinary experience. Children and their parents visit Disneyland Paris with the help of come true for a larger number of underprivileged background. Any Tamanna. (Courtesy of Tamanna) children. Since May 30 and for a patient aged 3-18 is eligible to make year, Air France is donating $1 for a wish to Tamanna. each ticket to Paris purchased in The NGO is contacted by medical “This is when they need a push, mercial director for Near East. sea with the navy and on a military Lebanon to fund a wish of a child to staff across Lebanon for psychologi- especially the children who have “Air France is present around the helicopter. It was really magical go to the Disneyland park near Paris. cal support when a child is at his or been in hospital for 3 or 4 years,” she world and we care about the com- and it helped a lot in his case. This Inspired by the Make-a-Wish her lowest and not responding to said. “They don’t know what life is munities around us. There is noth- is where we see miracles happen- Foundation in the United States, Ta- medication or fighting back, Barbir really about and by experiencing ing more important than caring for ing,” Barbir said. manna has granted more than 1,900 said. something beautiful it gives mean- the children who suffer so much,” While many cases have happy ing to their life, something to fight Koot said. endings, Tamanna comes across f o r.” some very emotional and sad sto- Barbir said wishes come in four ries. categories: I wish to meet, I wish to Inspired by the Make-a- The wish of a 6-year-old girl with be, I wish to have and I wish to go. Wish Foundation in the terminal illness was to see her fa- “I wish to go” and “I wish to United States, Tamanna has ther, whom, she was told, was meet” being the most requested, granted more than 1,900 working abroad to sustain his fam- Air France and Tamanna officials wishes since it was ily. said they hope to gather donations established in 2005 after “In fact, the father was in jail in to make the wishes of as many chil- founder Diala el Fil lost her a European country,” Barbir said. dren as possible come true. son in an accident. “We hired a lawyer to negotiate While boys mostly want to meet with the judge to have the little girl international football players such A 6-year-old cancer patient who visit her father. The judge accepted as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ron- had the wish to see an aeroplane and they met at the hotel so that aldo, girls wish to see the Disney was hosted on an Air France air- the girl would not be traumatised princesses and local celebrities, Bar- craft. “He was in the cockpit, par- by seeing him behind bars.” bir noted. ticipated in the aircraft ground han- “They spent 5 hours together. “The majority of children want to dling, saw the engines and talked to The girl had her pocket money that go somewhere,” Barbir said. “Since the engineers. It was a memorable she gave to her father saying: ‘Here many come from poor families, day for him, different from going to is the money. You can come home travelling is not an option for them. the hospital,” Koot said. now.’ The judge was so touched by They’ve never been on a plane. They Another child who wished to the girl and granted the father early probably would not go on a plane experience being a soldier had a release so he could spend the last again and, by taking them to magi- red-carpet reception at the Leba- moments with his daughter and cal places such as Disneyland and nese Ministry of Defence where he this is what happened,” Barbir said. Paris, it makes it really an extraordi- was welcomed by the minister and “It was very intense, very beauti- nary experience.” granted the rank of a corporal, Bar- ful and very emotional.” Air France joined Tamanna to bir recalled. Dream come true. A critically-ill boy whose wish to be a soldier make the dreams of the children fly, “He was dressed in military fa- Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly was granted by Tamanna. (Courtesy of Tamanna) says Bart Koot, the airline’s com- tigues, drove in a tank and went at Travel and Society section editor. Contaminated mint tea puts Moroccans’ health at risk

Saad Guerraoui ONSSA said that measures, in- pesticides. cluding sanctions against farmers Wholesale markets are required and the destruction of crops, would to oblige producers to present the Casablanca be taken to protect consumers from analysis results of their products. an imminent health risk. ONSSA set out a mint safety pro- ould you like tea with Health experts urged Moroccans gramme aimed at controlling pesti- or without mint?” to thoroughly wash both green tea cide residues and raising awareness “ the waiter asked at a and mint to avert health risks. among producers on the danger of Wcoffee shop in Casa- In Derb Sultan neighbourhood, excessive use of chemicals. blanca. Many tea drinkers have mint is in high demand and the In 2015, the European Union begun to ditch mint from their tea- sizeable number of merchants of- warned of health risks of mint im- pots following a warning from the fering the herb reflects consumers’ ported from Morocco after detect- National Office for Food and Safety. love for the herb. ing 0.21 grams of pesticides per kil- “I would rather drink black tea “I can’t imagine drinking tea ogram of the herb. Large quantities this time. Mint tea has become a without mint. No matter what they of mint were returned to Morocco poisonous drink,” said the custom- say, I will keep consuming it,” said and the European Union threat- er. Halima, as she bought a bunch of ened to put the country on a black- Mint, a herb that is omnipres- fresh mint despite hearing about list unless authorities acted. ent in every household across Mo- the pesticide issue. Moroccan tea, a blend of mint rocco, has been contaminated with “I only have to wash it to avert and green tea, is the most popular pesticides that do not comply with the health risk,” she said. hot drink among Moroccans and standards and regulations, the Na- Fatima Zahra, a mother of two foreign tourists. tional Office for Food and Safety children, echoed her statement. ONSSA warned in March that sev- (ONSSA) warned. “We are fed up with this same old eral Chinese tea brands sold in Mo- ONSSA, in a letter addressed to story which comes out once the rocco contained pesticide amounts the prefectures of Souss-Massa- mint becomes very good and tasty! exceeding established limits. It an- Draa and Taza–Al Hoceima-Taou- Just wash it. Nowadays everything nounced new standards regulating nate, stated that samples tested is full of chemicals. I’ll never give in importing tea from China, which showed “very high rates” of “un- to a nice cup of mint tea with a thick will go into effect in July. registered chemicals or high resi- white foam on the top,” said Zahra. In 2018, Moroccans consumed al- due levels of approved products.” Mohammed Ramil, 28, disagreed Ditching mint. A mint seller shows the quality of mint to a most 78,000 tonnes of Chinese tea, Despite their use to protect crops, with Zahra. customer. (Saad Guerraoui) nearly one-quarter of China’s total pesticides can cause adverse health “It’s at your own risk. The risk of exports. effects, including cancer and ef- having cancer is multiplied by con- fects on reproduction, immune or suming more products with more of our food. Farmers who do not Authorities in Rabat and Mar- Saad Guerraoui is a contributor nervous systems, in humans, the pesticides,” warned Ramil. “Serious comply with the regulations must rakech destroyed fields that had to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb World Health Organisation said. controls are needed on the quality be sanctioned.” been treated with unauthorised issues. 22 June 30, 2019 Culture Egypt Interview Farouk Hosni: Art is the antipode of terrorism

religious terrorism is the natural During his artistic career and up to consequence of the disappearance now, Hosni has stayed away from of the right conditions for creativ- politics. Mustafa Abid ity, art and culture in those Hosni points out that Arab societies. governments have great financial For Hosni, art is the antipode of resources and usually hold regular Art and politics. Farouk Hosni during an interview. (Mustafa Abid) gyptian artist and terrorism. It elevates society, festivals and forums that can sway former Culture renews its blood and uncovers its public opinion in the right direction Minister Farouk strengths. In countries where if used properly. He warns, how- require some time to become a message to share with others. Hosni recently creativity thrives, violence and ever, of the dangers of bringing full-fledged and popular art form in Hosni says he is now convinced launched the Farouk terrorism shrink. When he was politics into art, in the sense where Egypt, but he is confident that it that Arab countries need to educate Hosni Foundation minister, Hosni used to call Egypt’s artists are mobilised in the service will come into its own and become new generations to respect art and for Culture and Arts, Ministry of Culture “the Ministry of this political current or the other a sovereign art as it has in Europe. its freedom, because it contributes which aims to of Cultural War” because it was at or even governments. He insists Hosni follows the experiences of to refining people’s feelings in Esupport young people in the fields the forefront of the battle to that politics stunts creativity and the rest of the region and says he is general. As a burgeoning artist, he of photography, architecture and counter terrorism and extremist officials of culture in the Arab fascinated with artists from was brought up to respect the theatre, in addition to opening an thought. countries should clearly and different generations and in many creative pioneers who established art museum in Zamalek, exhibiting Hosni is an Egyptian plastic artist distinctly separate culture from countries. He points out the the foundations of modernity in the works by various artists. who was born in Alexandria on the politics and refrain from bringing existence of talented and world arts, culture and thought. In an interview with The Arab Mediterranean. He received a art into the service of politics. renowned artists in many Arab He told The Arab Weekly he Weekly, Hosni stressed that Egypt bachelor of arts degree from The Egyptian artist says there has countries, particularly in the enjoyed learning from the experi- is going through a stage “character- Alexandria University. He became been a noticeable surge in public Maghreb, as well as others he has ences and ideas of great modern ised by regression in the face of the the managing director of the interest in plastic arts in recent met in Iraq, the Palestinian Arab thinkers such as Taha Hus- tide of Salafism and extremism and Academy of Arts in Rome and was years. He said that is a sign of a territories, Lebanon and Arab Gulf sein, Abbas Mahmoud Akkad and has lost the societal battle, appointed Egypt’s minister of societal rebellion over close- states. Zaki Najib al-Mahmoud. He said he preferring to recoil into a corner far culture in 1987. minded religious thought that Hosni has been particularly has been very lucky to have known from the public.” He said the battle In 2009, Hosni was nominated prohibits drawing and inhibits and impressed with the wave of many important writers and against terrorism is wider and more for the post of director-general of suppresses human feelings. He said unprecedented interest and thinkers and that there were many dangerous than to just deal with it the United Nations Educational, plastic art, which is more popular enthusiasm for plastic arts in Gulf Arab writers and creators who have from a security point of view. Scientific and Cultural Organisa- than before, expresses the artist’s societies. People there have grown deserved the Nobel Prize. “A poet According to Hosni, extremism is tion (UNESCO). He competed with feelings and interacts with the interested in buying and collecting like Adonis really deserves the born whenever there is a vacuum eight other candidates in five public on that level. Artistic paintings to the extent that it has Nobel Prize and so does Amin in the structure of society, a rounds. In the final round he abstraction is the voice of the soul, created an encouraging market for Maalouf and other Arab writers and vacuum that should have been received 27 votes against 31 votes and if the recipient comes with Arab artists. He has put his works creators,” said Hosni. The lack of filled by art and culture. Encourag- in favour of Bulgarian Irina preconceived ideas, he or she will up for auction at Christie’s in Dubai translation initiatives from Arabic ing and supporting arts of all kinds Bokova. come into collision with art and a few times. to other languages has diminished contributes to establishing a After completing his mandate as creativity itself. Abstract art has its Nowadays, Hosni the artist Arab writers’ chances of being culture of tolerance and coexist- minister of culture, Hosni began own principles and each painting spends most of his time in his known throughout the world, he ence and reducing intolerance and devoting his time to his art and has carries its own doses of beauty and private studio among his colours said. intellectual tyranny. Hosni says held several art exhibitions in Cairo talent. and tools, listening to quiet music that what some countries are and many cities in the Gulf, which The former minister of culture and searching deep inside his soul, Mustafa Abid is an Egyptian witnessing in terms of violence and were well-received by critics. says abstraction in art form will feelings and emotions for a creative writer. Egypt’s first hit war movie in years hailed as Hollywood-quality production

Marwa al-A’sar depicted by Jordanian actor Eyad despite limited production facili- Nassar, addresses late Egyptian ties. “Almamar” cost 70 million President Gamal Abdel-Nasser’s Egyptian pounds (about $4.2 mil- Cairo photo. “You still want to throw us lion). in the sea, Gamal? Smile… smile!” Producer Hisham Abdel-Khalik efeat and failure can even- Nassar said. said in a recent interview that “the tually lead to victory and The events are based on the Egyptian Army’s Department of success. This is what re- true story of a joint unit of Egyp- Morale Affairs helped in providing D nowned Egyptian film- tian commandos and navy seals the necessary artillery, arms and maker Sherif Arafa is trying to tell charged with special missions be- training for the film’s crew to ap- viewers through his most-antici- hind enemy lines. In the film, the pear that way.” pated movie, “Almamar” (the Pas- group is assigned to bomb Israel’s Surprisingly, “Almamar” has at- sage). highly fortified camp in Sinai, tracted youngsters and adults alike, The film, the first Egyptian war knowing by mere coincidence that who enthusiastically cheered every movie in decades, depicts the peri- war prisoners from Egypt were kept successful attack by the Egyptian od following Arab defeat in the 1967 there, which makes it a rescue mis- soldiers. war with Israel, which was dubbed sion as well. “Even though I didn’t live “the Setback,” and the ensuing War They are led by commander Nour, through these times, I have always of Attrition between Egypt and Is- the film’s main protagonist, por- heard about the Egyptian Army’s rael that lasted a whole year (1969- trayed by Egyptian star Ahmed Ezz. heroic operations during the War 70). The war of attrition was carried of Attrition from my parents and The Six-Day War resulted in Israel out during Nasser’s reign. It includ- grandparents, a notion that has capturing the Sinai Peninsula, the ed a series of successful operations been confirmed by ‘Almamar,’” Gaza Strip, the West Bank, the Old by the Egyptian Army units that Soha Alaa, 21, said following the City of Jerusalem and the Syrian meant to drain the Israeli forces film screening at a Cairo cinema. Golan Heights. and prepare for a wide-scale war. “’Almamar’ is a great movie, “Almamar” starts with an Israeli The film’s soundtrack, composed bringing back the memories of cabinet meeting where participants by Egyptian musical icon Omar the war. I was almost 20 when the assess the situation in Egypt and its Khairat, drew public applause. war broke out. It was a moment of neighbours before declaring war. Almost all Egyptian ethnicities severe frustration; but our army The scene is followed by another are represented in the film: the Nu- made it eventually,” Ahmed Sadek, portraying grief and disappoint- bian soldier, the Upper Egyptian, a viewer, said. ment over Egypt’s defeat. The in- Cairo residents and the Bedouins, The film has won raving reviews troduction showed with great real- who play the role of guides for the from movie critics as well. ism how well-prepared Israel was soldiers in the Sinai desert. “It is an important, well-crafted for war in comparison with Egypt, Egyptian actor Ahmed Rezk, the film made during a time when we which was not ready to face an at- reporter covering the secret mis- lack good movie productions. This tack of that scale. sion in the film, acts as comic re- genre of films has been ignored for “Almamar” film poster “What are we going to tell our lief during the film’s heated action. almost 25 years now,” critic Magda folks, sir, that we let Zionists cap- Rezk manages to put a smile on Morris said. ture our land?” Captain Mahmoud, viewers’ faces following moments Arafa recalls a long preparatory in a statement sent to the press. speeches. It is stirring, simplistic played by Egyptian actor Ahmed of awe and anticipation. phase that preceded the making of The film is outstanding in its re- and overwhelmingly sentimental — Falawkas, asks a senior army of- The film topped the Egyptian “Almamar.” alistic representation of the conflict a testament to the resilience of the ficer following the military chief’s box office earnings with revenues “I read sources and references and effectively brings out the bat- Egyptian man and a call to arms for order for Egyptian forces to retreat amounting to more than 30 million from the Egyptian, Israeli and tle’s other angles, such as the hu- national unity against the enemy, in 1967. Egyptian pounds (nearly $2 million) Russian sides. I also watched… manity of the soldiers. whoever it may be. Perhaps one of the most over- in the first few days of screening. documentaries and read memoirs Some critics saw resemblance whelming scenes in the film occurs As a war movie, it is well-crafted of those who survived that stage with the rhetoric used by Egyptian Marwa al-A’sar is a Cairo-based when Israeli officer, David, well- and compared to Hollywood films whether soldiers or writers,” he said President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in his journalist. June 30, 2019 23 Culture Maghreb Gnaoua Festival concludes with thrilling music fusions

Saad Guerraoui tires,” says Neila Tazi, director-pro- ducer of the festival. Award-winning Jamaican band Essaouira Third World, which has celebrated its 45th anniversary, performed a he 22nd edition of the Gna- range of reggae songs, mixing el- oua Festival and World ements of R&B, funk and pop be- Music in Essaouira closed sides a cover of “Con te partiro” by T its curtains with a thrilling Italian soprano Andrea Bocelli. combined performance by Mo- At the Borj Bab Marrakech, spec- rocco’s renowned Gnaoui artist tators enjoyed the Andalusian Hamid El Kasri and British Indian music thanks to a beautifully com- singer Susheela Raman. bined performance of both talent- Kasri entertained the huge ed Moroccan singer Nabyla Maan crowd at Place Moulay El Hassan and Spain’s flamenco dancer Maria on June 22 with a classic repertoire del Mar Moreno. of Gnaoui heritage that has been The two artists depicted the preserved for centuries. closeness of artistic roots between Kasri was joined on stage by Morocco and Spain through a mel- Susheela, blending two different ange of Melhoun songs and fla- spiritual music styles using West- menco dance. ern instruments such as the saxo- The closing evening also saw phone and electric guitar with the several bands and artists, includ- traditional guembri and iron rat- ing Moroccan band Betweenatna tlesnakes (krakeb in Moroccan dia- and Congo’s Baloji, perform at the lect). beach venue. Earlier in the evening, Susheela Betweenatna gave a concert to and her band performed a mixture inmates of Essaouira prison in co- of soul, blues and rock songs. ordination with the festival organ- “I’m happy to take part in the isers. festival. All Maalems are happy. It The second day of the festival Musical blend. Moroccan musician Hamid El Kasri performs during the 2019 Gnaoua music festival in is an opportunity for us, Maalems, featured one of the event’s best Morocco’s western region of Essaouira, June 22. (AFP) to meet here. People come from all moments with the fusion of deep- over the world to share their mu- rooted African music that has sur- sic with us. We try to merge it with vived despite the armed conflicts status of Maalems and musicians 14th annual meeting of the Com- “But beyond that, this inscrip- Gnaoua music,” said Kasri. and terrorism. who wholeheartedly devote them- mittee for the Safeguarding of the tion, which was unthinkable just Almost 40 concerts were held A fusion between Mali’s Tuareg selves to this ancestral art. Intangible Cultural Heritage in De- 20 years ago, would symbolise during the three-day event in sev- musicians Tinariwen and Maalem Last February, the Inter-Govern- cember in the Columbian capital of both the importance of the role of eral venues of the historic city, Mustapha Baqbou highlighted the mental Commission for the Intan- Bogota. culture in building social bonds which was ornamented in Gnaoui performers’ great talent and adapt- gible Cultural Heritage, part of the “The inscription would be a le- and our ties with the peoples of the colours. More than 300,000 music ability to merge music genres as United Nations Educational, Sci- gitimate recognition for Gnaoua, world,” she added. lovers attended a unique music was the case of Maalem Omar Hay- entific and Cultural Organisation for what they brought to Morocco. Six elements of Moroccan her- festival that bridges cultures and at and Guinean singer Moh Kouyat. (UNESCO), registered the nomina- Of course the Gnaouas have be- itage are already inscribed on promotes co-existence. The Essaouira Gnaoua and World tion of the “Gnaoua Art” file on the come a symbol of our culture and UNESCO’s list of intangible herit- “We managed through the origi- Music Festival seeks to preserve, Representative List of the Intangi- have brought an international in- age, including “The cultural space nality and authenticity of the eve- bolster and ensure the continu- ble Cultural Heritage of Humanity. fluence to Moroccan music,” said of the Jemaa el-Fna Square”, “Tan- nings to retain a public that never ity of Gnaoua’s oral heritage, the The decision will be taken at the Tazi. Tan Moussem” and Falconry. Tunis celebrates dance ‘with dignity’

Roua Khlifi As the body is the focal point of ernment that feels obliged to cen- dance, panels and conferences fo- sor everything.” cused on issues pertaining to the The shows treated the audience Tunis body, which has been perceived to a variety of artistic creations. differently over time in the Arab The Ballet of the Opera of Tunis ith dancers from all world. Guellouz recounted com- performed its latest creation, “Four over the world and ments she often hears on how ori- Seasons,” in a public square at the spectacles held in the- ental dancers are viewed as seduc- entrance of the medina of Tunis, W atres but also in the tive to foreigners. attracting hundreds of passers-by. streets, Tunis celebrated the art of “Colonialism affected the image Lebanese Bassem Abou Diab raised dance with the second edition of of the female dancer as they were questions on the history of war the Carthage Dance Festival. often exhibited as a sexual object in his country in his show “Under Running June 14-20, the festival and it exposed (her) to a violent the Flesh,” using types of dancing was directed by dancer and anthro- gaze,” Guellouz said. “The stereo- movements to express his position pologist Mariem Guellouz under typical image of female oriental from the war in the Arab world. the theme of “No Dance without dancers that we have today is a dis- Whether from the East or the West, Dignity.” torted cliche. In reality there are dif- the questions examined by dancers “The theme can be interpreted ferent forms and types of dance in were revealed to be universally rel- on two levels. First, the body is the the Arab world.” evant. tool of the dance art form. Respect- “In Algeria, there is a form of “I was questioning what dance is ing the body of any dancer and the dance that resembles a battle. Even good for and what it can do for the body of any artist by providing the the steps are meant to send messag- world,” American dancer Daniel necessary material and emotional es against the coloniser like a secret Linehan explained. “The political means is a must,” Guellouz ex- code. Women are also portrayed as situation is disappointing and was plained. warriors and as part of nature. In troubling me a lot and I was think- “Second, from a general per- Tunisia, there is a form of folkloric ing of what I can do as a dancer for spective, the body of the dancer dance that imitates the movements the world and these thoughts spin- is the reflection of society, of the of workers and farmers. There is ning in my head somehow became political body, of the social body. femininity but it is not the only one about my body wanting to spin Any attempt to subject citizens to in the dance of the Arab world.” these circles that imitate the spin- violence or violations of individu- Messaoudi also commented how ning of thoughts.” al freedoms will be an obstacle to Dancing to the beat. “Four Seasons” performed by The Ballet of Egyptian dancers are perceived in “I am excited that the festival is creativity and freedom of artistic the Opera of Tunis. (Carthage Dance Press) their country, where she said the a platform for Tunisian dancers and expression.” profession remains censored and choreographers and also for inter- For Guellouz, the value of the fes- subject to many degrading rules national. It is an opportunity to ex- tival lies in it recognising dance as a Tunisian shows and 22 from other African roots and the dignity of the and regulations. change cultures and skills too.” serious profession. countries, including Syria, Leba- body, with dancers performing tra- “There is a connection between For young and upcoming danc- “Dance is not only a hobby or non, France and Germany. ditional African dance movements prostitution and dancers,” Mes- ers, the shows are an opportunity form of entertainment or even a The festival also provided an op- to the sound of modern music and saoudi said. “In Egypt the police to develop their skills and cultural social practice. Dancing is a pro- portunity to reflect on dance-relat- Afro beats. and the government still intervene expertise fession. Having the state recognise ed issues in the Arab world. “The history of dance in Tunisia in the world of dancers. They issue “We are fortunate that there is a dance as a profession and as an ar- “Today, this festival can be a and in the Arab world is itself a long the same authorisation for prosti- pole dedicated for dance arts in the tistic discipline like other art forms communication network between and rich festival,” Egyptian singer tutes and dancers. I am glad they Ministry of Culture that recognises and having a festival funded by Arab artists and others. It is still and dancer Donia Messaoudi said. have finally recognised dance as a dancers. The shows also showcase public sources is a milestone in the unfortunate that some dancers “And having a festival dedicated profession in Tunisia.” the expertise of Tunisian dancers,” history of dance in Tunisia and the were unable to participate. A danc- to the art of dance is amazing as at She added: “The body of dancers Mohamed Islem Ghoul, a student Arab world,” Guellouz said. er couldn’t leave Ramallah while times dance is not recognised as a is continuously censored in Egypt, and a choreographer, said. The festival was organised by the other dancers from Syria couldn’t form of art in the Arab world.” which affects the dances them- “We have professional dancers government-run City of Culture. come,” Guellouz said. “This festival is an opportunity selves. Since the body is censored and they know the basics of dance, One of the objectives of the fes- She added: “Artists from the Arab to share the history of dance in our and always covered, some steps of which is important. What we need tival is to introduce the Tunisian world and Africa often face prob- countries,” she added. “One of the dancing are deemed provocative as a next step is an institute for public to the art of dance and cho- lems participating. They are even statements of the festival is to cele- and are tamed in a way to be more arts of dance like we have a theatre reography forms as well as to cre- at times assaulted and humiliated. brate the history of dance as a form docile. It disfigured the dances school,” Kamel Ezzine, a theatre ate a platform to accommodate and Without dignity of the body, there of art. I think it is amazing that the which are a part of the history and teacher and a choreographer, said. host dancers from different parts of is no dance as an art. ” festival recognises the status of the culture. Dance in Egypt was de- the world. Kicking off the events with Ous- dancer as a professional artist. In stroyed first by colonisation that Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel and This edition hosted 225 partici- mane Sy’s “Queen Blood,” the fes- Egypt, the legal status of a dancer is only portrayed the seductive and Culture contributor to The Arab pants with 37 shows divided into 15 tival emphasised a commitment to similar to that of a prostitute.” feminine side and now by the gov- Weekly. 24 June 30, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Dubai: Through August 3

Organised by Dubai Festivals and Retail Establishment, the annual Dubai Summer Surprises offers an array of deals across the city’s shopping outlets, attractions, hotel staycations and family entertainment.

Agadir: July 13-16

The 16th Timitar Festival for Amazigh culture and world music will take place in Agadir, Mo- rocco and will feature artists from Morocco, Senegal, Algeria, Mali, France, Lebanon, Cuba and other countries.

Sousse: A view of Ramallah city in the West Bank. (Ruba Zeidan) July 13- August 15

The International Festival of Sousse celebrates the diversity of Ramallah, a Palestinian city that Tunisian culture and history. The festival includes performances of local and international artists. celebrates art, heritage and freedom Al-Qassim: July 14-17

Ruba Zeidan ings pave the wide streets lead- Almithnab Summer Festival in ing to the city centre. Many cafes, Saudi Arabia offers a range of fun clothing stores and colourful shops activities such as live perfor- Ramallah spread over the main streets of the mances and games. Visitors can bustling city, with noise fading check out the wide range of arts rossing the Jordan River away into mild, loveable squeaks and crafts displays, cafes and from the east, little did of birds nesting in the greenery. restaurants. Rashid Haddadin know A favourite hangout in Ramal- C that his name would for- lah is Radio, an open garden trans- Beiteddine: ever be remembered as the man formed into an art space, sort of a July 18-August 10 who dreamed a city that stretches bar and cafe. The place has a cheer- gracefully up the green hills of the ful vibe, with local and interna- The annual Beiteddine Art Fes- holiest of all lands. tional bands playing almost every tival, in the Chouf mountains, Falling for the mountainous ter- night. Not far from the city centre includes a variety of perfor- rain and forested areas, the Hadda- in al-Masyoun district, Radio re- mances from opera and concerts dins, blacksmiths by profession, sembles the controversial city with to theatre and art exhibitions. founded their home in the breezy its pleasant contradictions. The festival welcomes more than city of Ramallah in the 16th cen- The imprints of Ramallah’s 50,000 visitors as well as numer- tury, after fleeing from Karak in original residents and those who ous star performers. present-day Jordan because of a relocated from their diaspora and tribal disagreement. promised to turn their beloved Jerash: Founded in the late 1500s, by hometown into an international During July Haddadin and his five sons, Ra- icon can be found everywhere. mallah honours the memory of Nothing says this more than the The Jerash Festival of Culture the original family with five stone Mahmoud Darwish Museum. and Arts, first put on in 1980, lions at Al-Manara Square in the This landmark, in Al-Barweh transforms the ancient city of city centre. Park, extending over 9,000 metres Jerash, Jordan, into one of the The name of “Ramallah” stems of green space, is a one-of-a-kind world’s liveliest cultural events, Statues of Rashid Haddadin, the founder of Ramallah, and his from the ancient Kana’ni “Ram,” sanctuary and a source of pride for with singers, poetry readings, family. (Ruba Zeidan) meaning “the high land.” Ramal- the people of Ramallah. Inside the ballet performances, symphony lah has evolved to become a mecca amazingly designed building, visi- orchestras and art shows. This for immigrants, farmers and crafts- tors hear the voice of Palestine’s frosty pleasures. few kilometres from the city cen- year’s edition includes artists men settling in the city, enjoying beloved poet, echoing in a well-lit The most famous of them is Ru- tre, is a must. such as Marcel Khalifa, Mohamed the prosperity and serenity of a hall where the walls are covered kab, a social gathering point for As a sister city of Ramallah, Jo- Mounir, Abeer Nema and the place nestled among olive trees with the collections of Darwish’s fashionable young Ramallans, who hannesburg, South Africa, present- Sultans of Syria. and clean-cut stone houses. works, photos and publications. often afterward head to the tradi- ed the statue to the Palestinians in Growing from an agricultural oa- The building has a cultural cen- tional part of town — Tahta — where 2014. There stands the legendary Dubai: sis to modern cultural and political tre, an open summer theatre and ancient buildings with restored fa- humanist, raising his fist in the August 29 hub, one cannot but admire the a well-groomed garden that hugs cades loom from a distance. face of the occupation as a beacon rich mosaic of Ramallah embracing Darwish’s marble stoned tomb From there, one can walk to- of hope reminding the people of Westlife, the four-piece Irish both dwellers and visitors. with his words engraved on top. wards one of the city’s landmarks Ramallah and the whole world of band, is performing at the Coca- Wars have taken their toll on Ramallah, though relatively and most cherished institutions, his forever-echoing words. Cola Arena. The band is celebrat- people and Ramallah. Surviving small — 17 sq.km — offers a variety Ramallah Friends Schools, es- “We know too well that our free- ing 20 years of record-breaking the 1948 Nakba and the 1967 Na- of activities. The city is a haven tablished in 1869. The building is dom is incomplete without the success; the members of Westlife ksa, the city became the home of for fans of hiking, with mountains pleasant to see, with its proud palm freedom of the Palestinians,” Man- have embarked on their highly many who sought refuge. It houses surrounding the centre and with trees and beautiful architecture. dela said in a 1997 speech in South anticipated reunion tour, the the headquarters of the Palestinian an active hiking scene throughout Ramallah celebrates arts, mu- Africa during the International Day Twenty Tour. Authority, which was established the year. sic, joy, nightlife, delicious cuisine of Solidarity with the Palestinian under the 1993 Oslo Accords. Enjoy a stroll from Al Manara but above all freedom. This is why People. Marrakech: Arriving in Ramallah, a visitor in- Square to one of the ice cream a visit to the 6-metre-tall bronze September 13-15 stantly feels the hip rhythm of the parlours nearby to sample authen- statue of Nelson Mandela, the late Ruba Zeidan is an Arab Weekly city. Modern, white-stoned build- tic Arab gum-flavoured cones of South African freedom fighter, a contributor in Jordan. The Oasis Festival is an event that celebrates electronic music. It takes place in the Moroccan desert for three days of perfor- mances and gathers artists from all over the world.

Nefta: September 21-22

Les Dunes Electroniques 2019 is a Tunisian event that celebrates electronic music. The event takes place in the Ong Jemel area of the Tunisian Desert near Nefta. More than 30 international artists will perform.

We welcome submissions of calendar items related to cultural events of interest to travellers in the Middle East and North Africa. Please send tips to: [email protected] The Lions Square in Ramallah. (Ruba Zeidan) A Ramallah sign in the city square. (Ruba Zeidan)