Syrian War at the Crossroads
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Recent Online Resources for the Analysis of Terrorism and Related Subjects Complied and Selected by Berto Jongman
PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 12, Issue 4 Recent Online Resources for the Analysis of Terrorism and Related Subjects Complied and selected by Berto Jongman Note from the Editor: The amount of new publications, reports, policy papers, lectures, presentations, videos and briefings in the field of terrorism and counter-terrorism can be overwhelming for the untrained researcher as well as for young counterterrorism professionals. In the following, a selection of recent open-source online publications, grouped into a dozen categories, has been made by a seasoned former intelligence analyst. An attempt has been made to select items from a variety of sources and positions, presenting different perspectives. Selection not necessarily means endorsement for a certain position or specific lines of argumentation. The following includes also a number of non- terrorism specific items from the broader spectrum of political violence and armed conflicts reports. Most of the items included below became available online in July and August 2018. They are categorised under these headings: 1. Non-Religious Terrorism: Actors, Groups, Incidents and Campaigns 2. Religious (mainly Jihadi) Terrorism: Actors, Groups, Incidents and Campaigns 3. Terrorist Strategies and Tactics 4. Conflict, Crime and Political Violence other than Terrorism 5. Counter-Terrorism – General 6. Counter-Terrorist Strategies, Tactics and Operations 7. State Repression and Civil War at Home and Clandestine & Open Warfare Abroad 8. Prevention and Preparedness Studies (including Countering Violent Extremism, De-Radicalization, Counter-Narratives) 9. Intelligence 10.Cyber Operations and Information Warfare 11.Risk & Threat Assessments, Forecasts, Analytical Studies 12.Also Worth Reading 1. Non-Religious Terrorism: Actors, Groups, Incidents and Campaigns R. -
The Precariousness of the De-Escalation Zones in Syria
The Precariousness of the De-Escalation Zones in Syria Mustafa Gurbuz May 10, 2017 Although the Russia-Turkey-Iran agreement on Given the fact that neither the Assad regime nor de-escalation zones in Syria was announced the Syrian opposition has signed the recent with boastful statements, ongoing clashes on agreement, maintaining the de-escalation zones the designated zones point to serious could be an arduous task. Three major problems impediments in implementing the ceasefire on arise (1) the Assad regime’s militaristic the ground. “We as guarantors…will do interpretation of the agreement and reluctance everything for this to work,” declared Russian to provide “rapid, safe and unhindered President Vladimir Putin in his meeting with humanitarian access” and “measures to restore Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who basic infrastructure facilities,” which are stated in turn said that the agreement will solve “50 as essential elements in the agreement, (2) the percent of the Syrian issue.” The Syrian opposition’s deep skepticism and internal opposition groups, however, criticized the divisions, and (3) the potential provocations by overall Astana process, noting that the de- Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other al-Qaida escalation zones could result in partitioning affiliates to disrupt the process. These are “the country through vague meanings.” nestled among the rebels in all proposed de- escalation zones and are most powerful in the According to a statement from the Russian Idlib region and its surroundings—a critical Foreign Ministry, the agreement suggests that zone that could determine the fate of the the guarantor states—Russia-Turkey-Iran— agreement. -
For China, Syria Is the “New Afghanistan” No
ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security Issue For China, Syria is the “New Afghanistan” No. 488 Dr Christina Lin June 2017 For China, Syria is the “New Afghanistan” Dr Christina Lin June 2017 Abstract In May 2017, a reporter for Dubai-based Al Aan TV aired an undercover story 1 on Idlib province – the Syrian “rebel” opposition stronghold that is supported by the US and other Western governments – and the site of the recent alleged chemical attack that prompted direct US missile strikes against the Syrian Arab Army. While the report confirmed that al-Qaeda dominates Idlib, there was another unexpected revelation: the presence of large Chinese Uyghur jihadi 2 colonies 3, and highlights the negative consequences of misguided US/Western policies for violent regime change in the Middle East. Istanbul-based BirGün Daily interviews Dr Christina Lin, a China-Mideast expert at Johns Hopkins University, to discuss the implications of these developments for China and the West. According to Lin, the outgrowth of these colonies was supported by Turkey's Erdoğan regime to breed anti-Assad jihadists, and in the face of these anti-Chinese militants using the Syrian base to also launch attacks on Chinese interests, this will provoke Beijing to increase its military involvement in the Syrian war. About ISPSW The Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consultancy (ISPSW) is a private institute for research and consultancy. The ISPSW is objective and task oriented, and impartial to party politics. In an ever more complex international environment of globalized economic processes and worldwide political, ecological, social and cultural change, that bring major opportunities but also risks, decision makers in enter- prises and politics depend more than ever before on the advice of highly qualified experts. -
UK Home Office
Country Policy and Information Note Syria: the Syrian Civil War Version 4.0 August 2020 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the Introduction section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment of, in general, whether one or more of the following applies: x A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm x The general humanitarian situation is so severe as to breach Article 15(b) of European Council Directive 2004/83/EC (the Qualification Directive) / Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iii) of the Immigration Rules x The security situation presents a real risk to a civilian’s life or person such that it would breach Article 15(c) of the Qualification Directive as transposed in paragraph 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules x A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) x A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory x A claim is likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and x If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002. -
Joint Report: Syrian Archive & Bellingcat & Syrians for Truth and Justice
Joint Report: Syrian Archive & Bellingcat & Syrians for Truth and Justice About Syrian Archive The Syrian Archive is a Syrian-led initiative striving to promote sustainable peace and respect for human rights within Syrian society through facilitating justice and accountability efforts. This includes evidence gathering and documentation of incidents; the acknowledgment that war crimes and human rights violations have been committed by all parties to the conflict; the identification of perpetrators to end the cycle of impunity; and the development of a process of justice and reconciliation. Through collecting, verifying, curating and investigating visual content, the Syrian Archive aims to preserve data as a digital memory to establish a database of human rights violations, and to act as a tool for legally implementing justice and accountability efforts as concept and practice in Syria. Since its founding in 2014, the Syrian Archive has collaborated with organisations including Human Rights Watch (HRW), Amnesty International, University of California at Berkeley and the University of Essex, Witness, Bellingcat and various agencies of the United Nations (UN), specifically the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic. 1 Joint Report: Syrian Archive & Bellingcat & Syrians for Truth and Justice About Bellingcat Bellingcat uses open source and social media investigation to investigate a variety of subjects, from Mexican drug lords to conflicts being fought across the world. Bellingcat brings together contributors who specialise in open source and social media investigation, and creates guides and case studies so others may learn to do the same. About Syrians for Truth and Justice/STJ Syrians for Truth and Justice /STJ is a nonprofit, nongovernmental, independent Syrian organization. -
How the US Ends up Training Al-Qaeda and ISIS Collaborators No
ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security Issue How the US Ends Up Training al-Qaeda and ISIS Collaborators No. 461 Dr Christina Lin Dec 2016 How the US Ends Up Training al-Qaeda and ISIS Collaborators Dr Christina Lin December 2016 Abstract In November 2015, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) in the House Armed Services Committee led a bipartisan bill H.R. 4108 to stop the abuse of American taxpayer money in the CIA's illegal arming and funding of al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria. Unfortunately, it was blocked, but after the recent deaths of three special forces assigned to train jihadists in the covert Timber Sycamore program, perhaps it is time to revisit a similar new bill and stop the US government's illegal policy of arming and training terrorists to overthrow foreign governments. About ISPSW The Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consultancy (ISPSW) is a private institute for research and consultancy. The ISPSW is objective and task oriented, and impartial to party politics. In an ever more complex international environment of globalized economic processes and worldwide political, ecological, social and cultural change, that bring major opportunities but also risks, decision makers in enter- prises and politics depend more than ever before on the advice of highly qualified experts. ISPSW offers a range of services, including strategic analyses, security consultancy, executive coaching and intercultural competency. ISPSW publications examine a wide range of topics relating to politics, economy, international relations, and security/defence. ISPSW network experts have operated in executive positions, in some cases for decades, and command wide-ranging experience in their respective areas of specialization. -
Külső Katonai Beavatkozás a Szíriai Polgárháborúba – Oroszország, Irán, Törökország És Az Egyesült Államok Szerepe1
DOI: 10.32576/nb.2020.1.3 Nemzet és Biztonság 2020/1. szám | 24–46. Selján Péter Külső katonai beavatkozás a szíriai polgárháborúba – Oroszország, Irán, Törökország és az Egyesült Államok szerepe1 A 2011-ben az arab tavaszként emlegetett eseménysorozatba illeszkedő kormány- ellenes tüntetésekkel kezdődő szíriai válság az elmúlt nyolc év során a közel-keleti regionális hatalmi versengés egyik fő színtere lett, és napjaink egyik legösszetettebb polgárháborújává eszkalálódott. Menetének befolyásolása érdekében az államon be- lüli fegyveres konfliktusba több külső állami szereplő is beavatkozott proxyk támo- gatásával vagy akár katonai intervencióval is, ami az elemzők számára is nehezen átláthatóvá teszi a helyzetet. Irán már a polgárháború kibontakozásának eleje óta támogatja az Aszad elnökhöz hű kormányerőket, ám végül Oroszország 2015-ös katonai beavatkozása menthette csak meg a rezsimet a teljes összeomlástól. Te- herán és Moszkva pragmatikus együttműködésének köszönhetően a polgárháború menete egyértelmű irányt vett, miközben az Iszlám Állam terjeszkedése, majd Török- ország kurdok elleni észak-szíriai hadműveletei tették még összetettebbé a konflik- tust. Az Amerikai Egyesült Államok (a továbbiakban: USA, Egyesült Államok) az Iszlám Állam felszámolására fókuszáló, az amerikai katonai szerepvállalást kifejezetten kerü- lő stratégiájával szinte lemondott Szíriáról. A tanulmány röviden összefoglalja a szí- riai polgárháború eszkalálódásának történetét, ismerteti az orosz katonai intervenció és az orosz–iráni együttműködés jelentőségét, -
WEEKLY CONFLICT SUMMARY | 15 June - 21 June 2020
WEEKLY CONFLICT SUMMARY | 15 June - 21 June 2020 SYRIA SUMMARY • NORTHWEST| There were increased attacks against Turkish-backed opposition groups in the region. Turkish and Russian armed forces continued to patrol the M4 highway in Idlib Governorate. Hayyat Tahrir al- Sham arrested a commander of a rival armed opposition group in Idlib Governorate. Civilians continued to face violence in the region. • SOUTH & CENTRAL | Protests continued across southern Syria. An improvised explosive device (IED) killed Russian-backed 5th Corps fighters in Dara’a Governorate. Civilians continued to face targeted violence in Dara’a Governorate. • NORTHEAST | ISIS attacks in Deir-ez-Zor Governorate continued. Clashes erupted between Iranian-backed groups and Government of Syria armed forces in Deir-ez-Zor Governorate. Turkish-backed armed opposition groups continued to engage in property destruction and looting in Al- Hassakah Governorate. Artillery bombardments in the region increased from the previous week. Figure 1: Dominant actors’ area of control and influence in Syria as of 21 June 2020. NSOAG stands for Non-state Organized Armed Groups. Also, please see the footnote on page 2. Page 1 of 7 WEEKLY CONFLICT SUMMARY | 15 June – 21 June 2020 NORTHWEST SYRIA1 There were increased attacks against Turkish-backed armed opposition groups in the region during the reporting period. On 15 June, unidentified gunmen assassinated the commander of the Turkish-backed Saqour al-Sham opposition group in Benin, Idlib Governorate.2 The same day, Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) arrested a fighter of the Turkish-backed opposition’s National Liberation Front (NLF) at a checkpoint in Salqin, Idlib Governorate. The reason for the arrest was not revealed. -
Post-ISIS States by Dr
Background Report VII: September 5, 2017 - April 30, 2018 Post-ISIS States By Dr. Gina Lennox Kurdish Lobby Australia Email: [email protected] Website: www.kurdishlobbyaustralia.com ©2018 Kurdish Lobby Australia You are welcome to share this report but please do not make changes without permission from Kurdish Lobby Australia. 1 Table of Contents Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 3 Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Why what is happening in the Middle East is relevant to Australia .......................... 9 What the Australian Government Can Do ........................................................................... 9 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 10 ISIS................................................................................................................................................... 10 Cost of War ................................................................................................................................... 11 Reconciliation and Reconstruction ..................................................................................... 14 -
Stronger As One? Examining US-Saudi Relations Since 9/11
Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont CMC Senior Theses CMC Student Scholarship 2021 Stronger as One? Examining US-Saudi Relations Since 9/11 Caroline Jenkins Claremont McKenna College Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses Part of the American Politics Commons, International Relations Commons, Near and Middle Eastern Studies Commons, and the Political Theory Commons Recommended Citation Jenkins, Caroline, "Stronger as One? Examining US-Saudi Relations Since 9/11" (2021). CMC Senior Theses. 2643. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2643 This Open Access Senior Thesis is brought to you by Scholarship@Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in this collection by an authorized administrator. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Claremont McKenna College Stronger as One? Examining US-Saudi Relations Since 9/11 Submitted to: Professor Hicham Bou Nassif By: Callie Jenkins For: Senior Thesis Spring 2021 3 May 2021 Jenkins 2 Abstract In the first several years following the attacks on September 11, 2001, many in both the American political elite and general public questioned the merits of the US’s strong alliance with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as fifteen of the nineteen hijackers, as well as Osama bin Laden, were Saudi citizens. The Kingdom was known for its lax regulations surrounding terrorist financing, which played a role in al Qaeda’s ability to carry out the 9/11 attacks. Due to this, many called for the US to end its historic partnership with the Saudis. However, under further examination, it becomes clear that both the US and the Saudis need the strong alliance to survive. -
Is Biden a Frenemy of Islamic World?
‘Friends, Not Masters’: Is Biden a Frenemy of Islamic World? the Democratic Party-leaning Muslims didn’t realize that all the missiles of the Obama-Biden administration deployed to bomb eight Islamic countries during its eight-year tenure were inscribed with “Inshallah” By Nauman Sadiq Region: USA Global Research, October 23, 2020 Theme: History In-depth Report: U.S. Elections During the presidential debate alongsideDonald Trump in September, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden uttered the invocative Islamic expression“Inshallah,” meaning “God willing,” to woo the Muslim American voters, which was cheered by Democratic supporters across the Islamic World. Being misinformed viewers of the Western mainstream media, however,the Democratic Party-leaning Muslims didn’t realize that all the missiles the liberal interventionist Obama- Biden administration deployed to bomb eight Islamic countries during its eight-year tenure were also inscribed with “Inshallah.” Empty rhetoric, no matter how bombastic and noble-sounding, is never a substitute for tangible benevolent deeds. If nurturing patron-client relationship with autocratic rulers of the Islamic World is the touchstone for being an Islamic sympathizer, then the Trump administration has forged friendlier relationships with absolute monarchs of the Gulf States, the military dictator of Egypt and the populist demagogue of Turkey. All Joe Biden did for the Islamic World in his over forty-year political career, first as a longtime senator from Delaware and then as Obama’s vice president, was to underwrite the Machiavellian policy of the US national security establishment to train and arm Islamic jihadists and use them as proxies against strategic adversaries in regions as disparate as the Af-Pak, Chechnya in the North Caucasus, Bosnia and Kosovo in the Balkans, Libya in North Africa and Syria in the Near East. -
Refining Intractability: a Case Study of Entrapment in the Syrian Civil War
International Negotiation 24 (2019) 407–436 brill.com/iner Refining Intractability: A Case Study of Entrapment in the Syrian Civil War Siniša Vuković a,b and Diane Bernabeia a School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University, 1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA b Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, The Netherlands [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Received 14 February 2019; accepted 25 April 2019 Abstract Intractability is generally associated with prolonged tensions, employment of destruc- tive means, suspicion and mistrust, inflammatory rhetoric and polarized solutions that are usually presented as ultimatums. Existing studies on intractability have empha- sized the resistance to solution as a crucial indicator of intractability, and subsequently explored the phases through which intractability evolves and key characteristics these conflicts possess. What is largely missing is a nuanced explanation of at what point resistance turns into intractability. Building on earlier studies from social-psychology on entrapment in negotiations this article will develop a novel conceptual framework of entrapment as a precondition to intractability, and apply it to assess the causes and consequences of entrapment in an escalating conflict using the Syrian Civil War as a case study. The study will demonstrate that resistance to solution, which is a conse- quence of entrapment, does not automatically lead to intractability. * Siniša Vuković, is Senior Lecturer and Associate Director of the Conflict Management Program, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He is also Visiting Assistant Professor at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University.