A NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF WORLDWIDE CO2 EMISSIONS BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS AND EFECTS ON ATMOSPHERIC WARMING IN TURKEY

Dr. Nuray TOKGÖZ Istanbul University, Faculty of Engineering Mining Engineering Department 34320 Avcılar /Istanbul / TURKEY

ABSTRACT

The climate system of the earth, globally and locally, obviously has been changed from pre- industrial period to present. Some of the changes are due to human activities where the vital role has been played by the emission.

Fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, oil), the raw materials for energy, play an effective and determining role in the development and sustenance of industrial development, as well as in the energy planning in all major countries.

When global and regional geographies are evaluated from the geo-strategic and geo-political points of view, it is clearly seen that among all fossil fuels, coal is distributed more “equally” in ratio than oil and natural gas reserves. Coal is gradually gaining importance for countries that do not have energy resources, have limited ones, or have resources on the verge of exhaustion. With the latest environmentally-friendly technological innovations in the field of burning-storing CO2 emissions in thermal power plants and given today’s emphasis on the principle of “sustainable development,” it is an undeniable fact that coal will continue to be a significant primary energy resource in the future, both in Turkey and around the world.

In this study, in order to numerically calculate the impact of CO2 from fossil fuel consumption on global warming and the process of climate change, a global scale numerical evaluation has been constructed. The evaluation utilizes the “total primary energy supply (TPES)”-“CO2 emission” from 136 countries in 2004 together with such basic indicators as “TPES/capita” and “ton CO2/capita”. The potential CO2 emission for the year 2030 has also been estimated.

Moreover, to maintain the integrity of the subject under study, the distribution of thermal power plants utilizing fossil fuels among the differing geographical regions of Turkey, the relationship between forests (F) in these regions, and the average annual increase in temperature (∆T) between 1975-92 and 1993-2006 have also been examined. Data was taken from 133 macro-climatic meteorological stations within the scope of this study.

Keywords: CO2 emission, Fossil fuels, Electricity generation, Atmospheric warming

1. INTRODUCTION

Energy has been vitally important for the development of the societies throughout the history. Today, per capita of national income and energy consumption levels present tremendous differences between developed and developing countries. A country should be “developed” in order to sustain its social and economic development. In other words, dealing with the sustainability of development cannot be regarded as a realistic approach for an underdeveloped society. However, besides the fact that development cannot be sustained if the environmental problems are ignored, it should be born in mind that economically weak countries do not have sufficient sources to bear the expenses of environmental protection.

The most important reason of the global warming which has considerably been increasing in the last century and the disasters related to it is the very significant increase in the emission rates of the greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere which have occurred as a result of activities of humans after the industrialization. The warming in atmosphere and green-house effect is due to the increase in six main GHG, which are CO2, CH4 (methane), N2O (nitrous oxide), HFC (hydrofluorocarbon), PFC (perflourocarbon), and SF6 (sulfur hexafluoride). The most significant of them is CO2 gas with an emission share of 80-82% within the total amount of greenhouse gas. Emission of CO2 gas is mainly caused by the usage of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) which are used in every sector of industry and economy. Therefore, energy policies directly affect the emissions of greenhouse gases.

According to the data from IPCC, within the last century the global surface temperature has increased by 0.6 °C on average. According to the data from World Meteorological Organization, the hottest two years of the last 150 years are 1998 and 2002.( IPCC, 2005). It is envisaged that from 1990 to 2100 the average increase in the global surface temperature will be 1.4-5.8 °C. Atmospheric CO2 reaching from 280 ppm to 360 ppm causes a 1.4°C increase in temperature. This is due to the reflective action of CO2 and SO2 on the light beams emitted from the ground at 1.10-1.63 μm wavelength back to the earth. Meanwhile, CH4 reflects 0.70-0.85μm wavelength red and infrared beams; however, CH4 has a much shorter half-life (11 years) and has less atmospheric concentration (1.65 ppm) (Kantarcı 2006). Knowledge of past CO2 levels and associated paleoenvironmental and paleoecological changes is useful for prediction future consequences of the current increase in atmospheric CO2 (Ghosh P, et.all, 2005).

As a result of this climate change, it is suggested that in the forthcoming years excessive droughts will occur in some regions of the world whereas flood disasters will occur in others. Disasters such as hurricanes, floods or excessive droughts that will occur as a result of the climate change also threaten both biological diversity and the future of animal species.

Based on these aspects; to provide numerical information on worldwide, CO2 emission trends were analyzed according to intensity of power plants stationary during 1971-2004 periods. Main energy indicators defined as “Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)”, “ton CO2/capita” were calculated for total 136 world countries. General outlook for the emission of Turkey that effected on its warming was researched in this study as well.

2. WORLDWIDE CO2 EMISSION TRENDS BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS

To provide numerical information on CO2 emission resulting from the burning of fossil fuels, 136 countries were analyzed according to the following main energy indicators: “reserves and its dynamic life,” “Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES),” “ton CO2/capita,” efficiency of power plants, and electricity generation trends (Figures 1 and 2). Data were analyzed based on the period from 1971-2004 in order to determine past and future trends of world CO2 emission. When Figures 1, 2 and 3 are carefully examined together, some important evaluations can be produced

• World CO2 emission caused by fossil fuel combustion grew from 24.98 Gt in 2003 to 26.58 Gt in 2004, an increase of 6.4 % (1.6 Gt). The world CO2 increase in 2004 is 28% compared to 1990.

• It is reported that total 7887 industrial CO2 sources have produced 13 466 Mt CO2 in a year. (IEA, 2000; IPCC, 2005). Globally, emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel use in the year 2004 totalled about 26.58 Gt. Of this, close to 51% was attributed to large (> 0.1 Mt CO2/year, stationary emission sources (see in Figure 1).

• Fossil fuel based-industrial source of CO2 emission was produced by power sector as 10539 Mt/year (63 %, 4942) (IPCC, 2005). It is followed by cement production % 15 (1175), refineries % 8.1 (638), petrochemical industry % 6 (478), Biomass % 3.9 (330), Iron and steel industry % 3.4 (270), and other sources 0.6 % ( 90). It clearly seems that large amount of CO2 have been emitted by power sector. If the sources evaluate according to distributed throughout the world, the database shows four main clusters of emissions: North America (midwest and eastern USA), Europe (northwest region), East Asia (eastern coast of China and Japan) and South Asia (Indian subcontinent) (Figure 1).

• Proven world coal reserves are currently 907 billion tones and total coal production in the world is 4.9 billion tones. Numerical evaluation shows that coal will be available for a couple of hundred years if there is no growth in the rate of production in the future (static case) for electricity generation in all regions around the world [Figure 1(a)].

• When the power plants in the world working with fossil fuels are examined according to their efficiencies (η), it is seen that they operate with an extremely low efficiency in Russia (16.7-21.2% efficient), CIS (19.4-26.0% efficient), and Central and Eastern Europe (25.5-28.0% efficient). It is known that this low efficiency is the result of the old combustion technologies used in the power plants which in turn causes increased CO2 emission together with SO2 and NO2 emissions [Figure 1(c)] (Tokgöz, 2001 and 2005).

• Large fossil fuel consumer’s countries are also large amount of CO2 emitter countries such as USA: 5.8 Gt, China: 4.8 Gt, Europe: 3.5Gt, Russia: 1.5 Gt, Japan: 1.2 Gt, India 1.1 G t, in 2004 [Figure 2(a)](*).

• Globally, the biggest emission of CO2 producer was USA which produced 5.8 Gt CO2 in 2004. Increasing of CO2 in 2004 was 21 % compared to 1990.

• China is ranked first in the world in coal production with a 1.55% ratio of reserve usage, and it is also ranked second after the USA in CO2 emission (4.8 billion tons). The increase in the amount of CO2 emission in China in 2004 compared to 1990 has been estimated to be 112% (1.12 fold). India is also a coal-producing country and is ranked second in the world in coal production after China. The ratio of coal reserve usage in India is 0.45%. China and India are among those countries which have not signed the Kyoto Protocol [Figure 1(a) and (b)].

• The USA, which is the greatest CO2 emission producer in the world, had a per (∗) capita CO2 emission of 19.73 tones in 2004 [Figure 2(b)] .

(∗) Raw data were taken from the “IEA, 2005 and 2006” references.

37.93

(t =14)

35.77 33.67 northwest northwest Gt

PASSIFIC emission. emission. 31.62 2 Japan: 1.5 Gt N. TOKGOZ China: 4.8

EAST ASIA ASIA EAST 2005 - 2030 2005 - 29.63 the of Projection

2 27.70

1990 KYOTO COMMITMENT LEVEL COMMITMENT 1990 KYOTO

(1 Gt = 1Billion tones) tones) 1Billion = Gt (1

5 8 6 . 2

9 3 . 2 3 t

31.62-20.74 = 10.88 Gt CO 9 . 7 1 2

TARGETED REDUCTION (2008-2012) 2

ASIA ASIA 7 4 0 . 2 SOUTH TOTAL REDUCTIONTOTAL TARGET OF THE KYOTO PARTIES

India: 1.1 G 1.1 India:

0 7 . 1 8 +12.93

[t]

7 0 . 8 1 +1.38 2

[t]

7 2 5 . 1 7 887 = r = 0.992 r 2

= 0.029

2 1 1 . 1 4 CO 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (t =1) (t

5 0

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10

] EMISSION EMISSION ] [CO (Gt = Billion ton) Billion = (Gt 2 2 (e) 2035 Emissions 2 (2004) = 28.53 Gt CO Gt = 28.53 (2004) emitter countries such as USA: 5.8 Gt, China: 4.8 Gt, Europe: 3.5Gt, 3.5Gt, Europe: Gt, 4.8 China: 5.8 Gt, USA: as such countries emitter 2

2

PODUCERS OF THE WORLDTHE PODUCERSOF 2030 2

OIL COAL 2025

NATURAL GAS

3.5 Gt 3.5 2020 EUROPE

LARGE CO 2015 Gt 13.47 = SECTOR POWER WORLD TOTAL SECTOR POWER OF SHARE 51 % = TOTAL STATIONARY SOUCES OF CO OF SOUCES STATIONARY TOTAL TOTAL WORLD CO

t, in 2004. 2004. in t,

2010

2005 2000

emission reached 26.58 Gt (Giga tones) based - fossil fuels. fuels. fossil - based tones) (Giga Gt 26.58 reached emission

1995 2

1990 1985 6.7 Gt Gt 6.7 NORTH

AMERICA AMERICA

1980 Its CO Fossil Fuels and World to Outlook General 1975 WORLD WORLD World emission stationeries map shows four particular clusters of emission: North America (midwest and eastern USA), Europe ( Europe USA), eastern and (midwest America North emission: of clusters particular four shows map stationeries emission World region), East Asia (easterncoast China of and Japan) and South Asia (Indian subcontinent) Large fossil fuel consumer’s countries are also large amount CO amount large also are countries consumer’s fuel fossil Large In 2004, total world CO world total 2004, In Fosil fuels are dominant sources of energy utilized in the world (86%)and account for about75% of current anthropogenic CO 0 EMISSIONS 500

STATIONARY STATIONARY 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000

(milyon ton/year) • • • • WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION (x Billion KWh) Billion (x GENERATION ELECTRICITY WORLD (d) EVALUATION NOTES: Russia: 1.5 Gt, Japan: 1.2 Gt, India 1.1 G 1.1 India Gt, 1.2 Japan: Gt, 1.5 Russia:

Figure 1. 1. Figure = 0.8297 = 0.308 = 0,7833 = 0,7001 tones = 0.9593 = 0.8416 2 2 2 2 9 2 r 2 r r

, r , ] 6 , r , r , ] ] , ] ] ] C C C C C C a = 2.5 % = 2.5 a % = 3.0 a a = 1.5 % a = 1.5 1 AUSTRALIA 2 AUSTRIA 3 BELGIUM 4 BULGARIA 5 CANADA 6 CYPRUS 7 CZECH REPUBLIC 8 DENMARK 9 ESTONIA 10 FINLAND 11 FRANCE 12 GERMANY 13 GREECE 14 HUNGARY 15 ICELAND 16 IRELAND 17 ITALY 18 JAPAN 19 KOREA 20 LATVIA 21 LITHUANIA 22 LUXEMBOURG 23 MALTA 24 MEXICO 25 NETHERLANDS ZELAND 26 NEW 27 NORWAY 28 POLAND 29 PORTUGAL 30 ROMANIA 31 RUSSIA REPUBL. 32 SLOVAK 33 SPAIN 34 SWEDEN 35 SWETZERLAND 36 TURKEY KINGDOM 37 UNITED 38 USA 39 UKRANIE 0,0013[ 0,0032[ ] = 907x10 ] -0,0114[ -0,0007[ -0,0043[ -0,0075[ USA coal = 33.9 [R min ] η COAL ] =] 50.76e ] =] 32,768e ] =] 91,63e [ ] =] 14.25e ] =45.42e] ] =61.08e] η η η η η η 38 USA = 36.6 % 36.6 = 6. [ 4. [ 5. [ 3. [ 2. [ 1. [ max = 82.= 52 (mtoe) ] ORMER USSR ORMER ton) η F 9 [ OIL USSIA or 136 countries) 136 countries) or R NDIA f 10 I 2(mean) ( x

= Mean production value, (ton/ year) (ton/ value, = Mean production = Mean production growth rate, (%) rate, growth = Mean production

3

CHINA a P 31 countries) 136 (for

GERMANY

EUROPEAN EUROPEAN = 19.4 = 195.46 (Mt) (Mt) 195.46 = Wo rl d S S d rl Wo GAS NATURAL 18 5 (mean) 11 12 min ] 19 η World CO World JAPAN 24

[ CIS CIS 39 = 36.8 % 36.8 = 37 17 = 39.4 = min = 26.0 % = 33 ] η max 25 max [ ] 1 ] η 3 1 η [ [ 28 34 36 7 [R], RESERVE ( 30 10 14 41 35 27 2 t = (1 a) / x ln [ (a x R P) / +1 ] (max) 13 [C], Thermal Generation Capacity, (GWe) Capacity, Generation Thermal [C], 5 TURKEY +2.23[TPES]+0.222 29 8 26 2 4 - 34 16 32 21 4 (min) = 28.0 % 28.0 = EAS TERN OECD PACIFIC OECD EUROPEA CENTRAL- max ] r = 0.998 (n=r 39) = 42.1 % 42.1 = % 9 20 η [TPES], TOTAL WORL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (Mtoe) SUPPLY ENERGY PRIMARY WORL TOTAL [TPES], [ ]= 29 29 ]= min ton 23 η ] TURKEY [ % 9 RUSSIA 22 ton η ] = 152 years ] [ 9 = 21.2 6 =16.7 =16.7 2 = 37.7 = = 0.0001[TPES] =25.5 =25.5 max EUROPEAN mi n 2 = 49 years ] ] ] COAL max η UNION (EU-27) (EU-27) UNION η years min ] [ [ [t OIL ] η CO η ] = 205x10 ] [t [ [ ] =154x10 ] 38 1 10 100 1000 10000 OIL 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 ] = N.GAS [R 1 0 10 GAS [R 100 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 80 60 40 20

[t 1000

200 180 160 140 120 100

10000

], Thermal efficiency, (%) efficiency, Thermal ], [ ] WORLD EMISSIONS (Million tons) (Million EMISSIONS WORLD ] O [C 2 [t],DYNAMIC LIFE OF FOSSIL FUELS (year) FUELS FOSSIL OF LIFE [t],DYNAMIC (c) (c) (a) (a) (b)

10000 30 1 AUSTRALIA 2 38 29 2 AUSTRIA CO2 = 0.0001[TPES]+2.23[TPES]+0.222 USA CHINA 3 BELGIUM 28 r = 0.998 (n= 39) 4 BULGARIA 27 [CO2]= 2.314[S] - 0.155 5 CANADA KUWAIT (26.36 t/capita) 6 CYPRUS 26 r = 0.975, n=136 7 CZECH REPUBLIC FORMER USSR 25 LUXEMBOURG 31 8 DENMARK RUSSIA 24 9 ESTONIA U. ARAB.EM. JAPAN 1.77 (toe/capita) = 18 INDIA 10 FINLAND 23 1000 11 FRANCE BAHRAIN

12 22 (World) GERMANY 12 GERMANY 21 39 5 13 GREECE USA 17 19 14 HUNGARY 20 1 33 (19.73 t/capita) 11 15 ICELAND 24 16 IRELAND 19 28 CANADA 17 ITALY 36 37 capita) (t / 18 TURKEY 18 JAPAN (17.24 t/capita) EUROPEAN 25 17 AUSTRALIA 19 KOREA TRINIDAD UNION (EU-27) 41 7 20 LATVIA 16 NETHERLAND ANTILLES 3 [/ TPES Population] 100 13 21 LITHUANIA 15 SAUDI ARABIA ARAB.EM. 30 22 LUXEMBOURG 2 14 8 29 10 World CO2(mean)= 82. 52 (mtoe) 23 MALTA 4 14 24 MEXICO 13 16 35 (for 136 countries) 34 25 NETHERLANDS ANNEX - II (12.96 t/capita)

32 / POPULATION] 12 26 NEW ZELAND 2 OECD (11.09 t/capita) 26 27 27 NORWAY 11 (11.27 t/capita) 28 POLAND ANNEX - I [CO

9 10 29 PORTUGAL 9 21 30 ROMANIA KYOTO PARTIES (9.02 t/capita) 22 31 RUSSIA 8 GREECE ] WORLD] EMISSIONS (Million tons) 10 2 EU-27 (8.14 t/capita) 32 SLOVAK REPUBL. 7 33 SPAIN

20 (Mt) 195.46 = MIDDLE EAS T (6.51 t/capita)

[CO 6 34 SWEDEN 6

35 SWETZERLAND 5 NON-OECD EUROPE (4.88 t/capita) (mean) 36 TURKEY 37 UNITED KINGDOM 4 23 [CO /Population] = 4.18 (t/capita) 38 USA 3 2 (World) 39 UKRANIE 2 TURKEY (2.92 t/capita.) World S S World 136 countries) (for 1 1 0 0123456789101112 1 10 100 1000 10000

(a) [TPES], TOTAL WORL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (Mtoe) (b) [ TPES / POPULATION ], (toe/capita)

EVALUATION NOTES:

• The USA, which is the greatest CO emission producer in the world, had a per capita CO emission of 19.73 tones in 2004 2 2 • CO2 emission, 2.29 tones per capita in Turkey in 1990 is even below the level of 2.92, which is the world average (4.18 t/capita). This means that Turkey’s per capita responsibility concerning the production of CO2 emission which causes global warming is less than the other countries. The average values of OECD and the EU member states are approximately three-fold higher than those of Turkey.

N. TOKGOZ

Figure 2. World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and “ton CO2/capita” values in 2004 • CO2 emission, 2.29 tones per capita in Turkey in 1990 is even below the level of 2.92 in 2004, which is the world average (4.18 t/capita) [Figure-2 (b)]. This means that Turkey’s per capita responsibility concerning the production of CO2 emission which causes global warming is less than the other countries. The emission figures of Turkey, who was included in the group of countries in Annex - I in compliance with UNFCCC, becomes more striking when compared to those of OECD countries and the EU. The average values of OECD and the EU member states are approximately three-fold higher than those of Turkey.

• To estimate the world CO2 emission trends for 2005-2030, CO2 emissions are analyzed in Figure 3 according to 1971- 2004 years (in 5 years periods). Regression analysis method was used in the emission estimation. The highest correlation coefficient (r = 0.992) was obtained from polynomial regression type which is given below.

2 CO2 = 0.029[t] + 1.38[t] + 12.93

“t” is defined as time (year). In calculations, “t” value takes into considerate as t1971 = 1 and t2030 = 14. World CO2 emission is predicted 37.93 Gt for 2030 from the regress ional equation.

45 2 CO2 = 0.029[t] +1.38[t]+12.93 r = 0.992 40 37.93 TARGETED REDUCTION (2008-2012) 35.77 31.62-20.74 = 10.88 Gt CO 35 2 33.67

31.62 29.63 30

58 27.70

26.

39

79 (Gt = Billion ton) 25 23.

21. 1990 KYOTO COMMITMENT LEVEL

70

07 20

18.

18. 72

11

15.

74

15 14. Projection of the ] EMISSION 20. 2 2005 - 2030 10

[CO TOTAL REDUCTION TARGET OF THE KYOTO PARTIES 5

0 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(t =1) (t =14)

Figure 3. Projection of the World CO2 trends

3. THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND CURRENT STATUS OF TURKEY

In the Kyoto Protocol designed in the city of Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, the obligations and applicable mechanisms for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change have been clearly stated. One of the important issues envisaged in the Kyoto Protocol is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the countries included in Annex - I 5% below the level of 1990 within the 2008-2012 commitment period. This target is regarded as the first fundamental step taken for the prevention of climate change within the context of “UNFCCC”. According to the Kyoto Protocol, the emission reduction objectives of some countries or blocks vary in achieving this target. For instance, the average target is 8% for the EU, 7% for the USA, 6% for Japan, and 0% for Russia. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has two annexes. Main responsibilities of the countries in Annex - I are to implement policies reducing emissions of greenhouse gas in order to prevent global warming and reduce the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions to the levels of 1990 until the year 2000. The obligations of the countries in Annex - II are, in addition to the ones in Annex - I, to provide financial and technical assistance to the developing countries that are not mentioned in the Annexes in the area of the prevention of climate change. In order to materialize, develop, and protect the foregoing targets in compliance with the resolution of UNFCCC, it has been resolved to hold a “Conference of the Parties - COP” every year, in which all the parties would have their say.

Turkey, as a member of the OECD, was included both in the group of countries in Annex I having immediate responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and in the group of countries in Annex-II that are responsible for financial and technical assistance for the reduction of emissions in under-developed countries in the Framework Convention on Climate Change opened for signature in the UN Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio in 1992 and designed for the governments to determine policies and take measures concerning the climate change. Although Turkey formerly favored being a Kyoto party, it did not sign the UNFCCC and the Rio Conference on grounds that Turkey cannot fulfill its responsibilities under these terms and conditions and it didn’t become a party to the treaty. In the subsequent 1997 Kyoto Conference, Turkey demanded being excluded from both annexes, however, this demand was not accepted. There upon, Turkey, taking a more moderate line, stated that she could be a party to the UNFCCC as an Annex - I country on condition that she is excluded from Annex - II and can benefit from the facilities provided to the Former Socialist Countries in the Hague Conference (COP 6) held in November 2000. Turkey’s exclusion from Annex - II was accepted in the Conference of the Parties (COP 7) held in Marrakech in compliance with the decision taken in the Hague Conference. Presently, the draft bill concerning Turkey’s inclusion in the FCCC is waiting for the approval of the TGNA.

Turkey’s total CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emission (excluding LUCF) in 1990 was 170.065 million tones, this figure increased to 296.61 million tones in 2004. Net GHG in 1990 was 222.53 million tones since 74.1 emission removed by sinks. If Turkey becomes a party to UNFCCC, she will have to reduce the total greenhouse gas emissions during 2008- 2012 periods to 170.065 million tones of the year 1990.

4. RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF CO2 ON ATMOSPHERIC WARMING IN TURKEY

4.1. Short Outlook Thermal Power Plants and Electricity Generation of Turkey

Although Turkey’s oil and natural gas reserves are limited, its coal reserves are quite abundant. The main lignite consuming sector is the power sector. Turkey has 9.2 billion tones of lignite and 1.4 billion tones of hard coal reserves. The Afsin-Elbistan region holds 3.3 billion tones of lignite reserves and this comprises 40% of Turkey’s total coal reserve. The construction and operation of power plants in Turkey started in the 1950s (Arıoğlu -Tokgöz, 1993., Arıoglu, 1996., Tokgöz, 2005).

Electricity generation in Turkey has undergone rapid growth. Installed capacity was 16.318 TW in 1990 and reached 36.824 TW by the end of 2004. The capacity of power plants has improved between 1990 and 2004. Thermal resources increased from 9.554 TW in 1990 to 24.179 TW in 2004. Ratios of coal, oil, and natural gas, which are the most important resources for Turkey’s total electricity generation, and ratios of CO2 emissions caused by these fossil fuels are shown in Table 1. Table 1.

TWh while sharewhichwith is total TWh, coalrepresents of in the of 35% thetotal 43 58% 71 2005 was 122.27 TWh based-fossilfuels combustion;the natural gas holdsthe largest in matter offact, Turkey a electricity production As the total with of importshigh prices. natural gas it “pay”sources productionon with its“take” energy andleaned agreements or gas dependson thefact thatTurkish Energy Policyincreased its dependencyforeign on naturalgas year after the and of 2000 it reached41.1 million tons. This increase natural in was in 45% anincrease of there In 4.5%. decline, petroleumwith contrast arateof to the 2003 from 90.9million tons in 2000with a share of 12%. Similar declinewas obtained in ASSESSMENT NOTE: base, CO when However,million valueyearon fuels tons inthe of is emission this 2004. considered (*) (*) YEARS YEARS 91 75 60 57 4. - 41.7 - 25.7 16.0 57.5 1971 90 62 71 46 7. - 496 - - - 81.4 537 80.3 41.1 2005 162.0 202.9 218.00 71.6 77.7 619 81.8 34.1 2004 151.1 140.6 193.6 204.02 59.6 - 75.8 600 78.2 31.1 2003 129.4 185.2 196.02 - 90.9 577 83.9 28.9 2002 122.7 203.7 212.55 77.6 558 79.3 44.6 24.3 2001 124.9 181.3 190.61 550 62.4 80.0 39.0 13.0 2000 116.4 27.1 155.4 160.79 58.9 63.3 6.50 1999 111.0 20.7 128.8 132.13 538 1995 103.3 86.2 1990 78.3 1985 - 45.2 50.0 0.10 95.3 1980 94.9 1975 Turkish Statistics Inst Internal EnergyAgency (IEA)- 2005and 2006

• ,

andfuel oilre Analyzing the fossil fuels on base of sectors, Turkey’s CO offuels base sectors,Turkey’sAnalyzing fossil on the General Outlook to Turkey’s Electricity Production in 1971-2004 period and Fossil Fuels based based - CO Fuels Fossil and period in1971-2004 ElectricityProduction to Turkey’s General Outlook 2 emission growing out of coal consumption declined to 81.4 million in tons 81.4 to declined consumption coal outof growing emission ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION (TWh) COAL COAL (TWh)

ı tute (TURKSTAT), 2006. p resents 6% withresents TWh. 6% 6 (1) - - FROM FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION FOSSILFROM FUEL OIL OIL (2) CO (Million tonnes) tonnes) (Million 2 EMISSIONS GAS GAS (3) (3) TOTAL (1+2+3) (1+2+3) 209.5 227.43 - (*) TOTAL

2 (**) eiso was 209.45 emission

(grammes CO PER KILOWATT CO 2 EMISSIONS HOUR 588 535 583 - - 2 / KWh)

CO2 EMISSION (Million tonnes)

CO2 EMISSION (Million tonnes) 100 150 200 250 100 50 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 0 1970 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 1971 57.5 CO [gr KILOWAT HOURS FROM BASED - FROM - BASED FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION (1971-2003) 1972 OF THE TURKEY (1971-2004) CO FROM FOSSIL FUELS FUELS FOSSIL FROM

1974 2 2 / kWh]/ (1971-2003) EMISSIONS per (DOMESTIC 78.3TWh CO CO 1975 COMBUSTION SOURCE 2 1976 COAL 2 EMISSIONS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS

86.2 TWh 2 1978 1980 Emissions

1980 ) 1985 94.9 TWh 1982

1984 ( (

+ % 532 1990 103.3 TWh 1990-2003) ) d l efo v fi (~ 1990-2003) +38% ( 1986 Coal 1995 111.0 TWh 1988 ) 1990 KYOTO TARGRT NATURAL GAS 116.4 TWh

( IMPORTED IMPORTED ( (Excluding Turkey 1999 ( IMPORTED IMPORTED ( 1992 SOURCE SOURCE OF THE TURKEY (1971-2005) ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 1994 OIL 2000 124.9 TWh

1996 ) ) 2001 122.7 TWh 1998 ECONOMIC CRISIS 2000 2002 129.4 TWh

2002 BASED- NATURAL GAS 140.6 TWh 2004 2003 DECREASES!! BASED-COAL INCREASES!! EMISSION EMISSION EMISSION 2006

N. TOKGOZ TOKGOZ N. 2004 151.1 TWh 2008 (2000-2003) (2000-2003) - 19% +42% 2010 2005 162.0 TWh

2012 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 2014 (grammesCO 2 / kWh] After 1985, the share of lignite power plants in total electricity generation in Turkey gradually decreased (34% in 2004) due to rapid increase in the share of natural gas power plants (52.1% in 2004). This increase in natural gas came as those responsible for Turkish Energy Policy increased Turkey’s dependency on foreign sources with “take” or “pay” agreements and leaned its energy production on natural gas it imports at high prices. As the required fuel for coal powered thermal power plants is provided by the most abundant domestic resource, the energy supply is cheaper and more reliable. What is more important is that the payments for the cost of coal remain within the country and therefore create added value. To the contrary, with respect to natural gas, there is dependence on foreign resources, which is highly risky and may create pressure in regional relations. Energy planning is of great importance in developing countries such as Turkey in order to prevent excess in investments. Furthermore, electricity cannot be stored and should be produced in neither insufficient, nor too large amounts (i.e. in the event of a demand and in demanded amounts), which makes energy planning even more crucial.

The total electricity production from fossil fuels combustion in Turkey in 2005 was 122.27 TWh. Natural gas holds the largest share of the total with 58 % (71 TWh), while coal represents 35% of the total with 43 TWh, and fuel oil represents 7% with 8 TWh.

4.2. Research on the effects of CO2 on Atmospheric Warming in Turkey

4.2.1. Meteorological Data Analyses

Atmospheric warming has led to significant effects in Turkey since 1993. In Turkey, a significant warming phenomenon is observed in comparison with the annual average temperature values from the 133 macro-climate meteorology stations. The statistical data(*) were analyzed according to local scale time series (last 30 years) for different two periods (1975-1992 and 1993-2006). The analysis methodology was given in Figure 3 as a local scale region (Lüleburgaz) example. The same methodology was used for the remaining 132 meteorological stations.

17.0 LULEBURGAZ 16.5 1970-1992 Period 1993-2005 Period

16.0 DIFFERENCE 15.5 ΔT = +1.9 °C 15.0 (1970-2006)

14.5 1929-1970 Period 14.0 T (mean) = 13.1 °C ΔT = + 1.2 °C 13.5

13.0

12.5 T(mean) = 14.3°C 12.0 (T), ANNUAL MEAN TEMPARATURE, (°C) TEMPARATURE, MEAN ANNUAL (T), 11.5 T(mean) =12.4°C 11.0

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 YEARS

Figure 4. Statistical Data Analyses of the Annual Mean Temperature Measurements During 1929-1970 and 1970 - 1992 and 1993-2005 periods

(*) Statistical raw data (1975-2006) were taken from Turkish State of Meteorological Service (TSMS). The distribution of the thermal power plants working with fossil fuels among the various geographical regions in Turkey, the relationship between the existence of forests (F) in these regions, and the average annual increase in temperature (∆T) between the periods of 1975- 1992 and 1993-2006 are examined; data was taken from 133 macro-climatic meteorological stations, Based on the results of this data, warming trends based on temperature increases between 0.5 C° and 0.9 C° were observed (Figure 5). However, it is understood that the warming differs among the 7 geographical regions in Turkey. When the Figure 5 carefully examined, some important results can be determined.

• In the regions which are under the effect of the sea in the Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea Region, the Marmara Region, and the Aegean Region, the average annual increase in temperature differs between 0.4 - 0.7°C, whereas in the Middle Anatolian and the Southeastern Anatolia Regions, and in rest of the Mediterranean Region which are not under the effect of the sea, the average annual increase in temperature differs between 0.5 - 1.1 / 1.2 °C.

• The Black Sea Region, the Marmara Region, the Aegean Region and parts of the Mediterranean Region which are influenced by the sea are under the effect of temperate and rainy climate types. Middle Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia and parts of the Mediterranean Region which are behind the Mediterranean are under the influence of terrestrial climate type, which is hot and dry in summers and cold in winters. It may be assumed that the precipitations wash the CO2 in the air as H2CO3 (carbonic acid) and take it down to earth. However, the regions having dry climate don’t get much precipitation.

• The Black Sea Region, the Marmara Region, the Aegean region and parts of the Mediterranean Region which are under the influence of the sea are rich in forests. In the regions having temperate climate, the amount of CO2 fixed by the forests (forest ecosystems) by photosynthesis is high. The CO2 fixed by the forest ecosystems reduces the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the amount of warming. On the other hand, in the Middle Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia and the rest of the Mediterranean Region which are behind the Mediterranean, there are very few forest areas. Moreover, there is no thermal power plant unit in these regions. The amount of CO2 absorbed by photosynthesis in these regions depends merely on the existence of agricultural and grassland plants. In the regions without forests, the temperature increase is more noticeable.

• In hollow valley regions which are between the mountains such as the Middle Anatolia, it is considered that the CO2, which is heavier than the subsiding cold air (44gr/mol) concentrates and causes increase in temperature (e.g. Konya-Eregli).

• It is understood that the CO2 produced by thermal power plants fueled by coal or natural gas causes temperature increase in the environment. A typical example of this phenomenon exists in Mersin. The chimney gases of Su Gözü Thermal Power Plant which is fueled by imported coal gather in front of the Bolkar Mountains, and in and around Mersin. On the other hand, in Adana which lies in an open field, winds prevent the CO2 concentration. Another striking example is seen in Elbistan (Afsin-Elbistan Thermal Power Plant), whereas Lüleburgaz (Inner Thrace) is also an example. The Hamitabat Thermal Power Plant in Lüleburgaz is fueled by natural gas. In the Eastern Black Sea Region, the effects of Hopa Thermal Power Plant can be seen, which is fueled by fuel oil. In the Aegean Region, the influence of some Thermal Power Plant draws attention in Akhisar. Influences of oil refining plant exist in Batman. • TOTAL THERMAL POWER PLANT CAPACITY = 24 179 MW (2004) 52. Amasya 1.4 BLACK SEA REGION 53. Artvin 1.4 EASTERN ANATOLIA REGION 81. Ağrı • TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION = 161 983.3 GWh (2005) 82. Ahlat 1.3 54. Akcakoca 1.3 • TOTAL THERMAL POWER PLANT GENERATION = 122 268.6 GWh (2005) 83. Ardahan 1.2 55. Beypazar ı 1.2 100 (Van ) 84. Bitlis (Lıgnite+Hard Coal : 35%, Natural gas : 58%, Fuel Oil: 6%) 56. Bafra 87 (Dogubeyazıt) 1.1 1.1 89 -0.003 85. Bingöl -1.03 57. Bart ın 96 [ΔT] =0.94[F] • TOTAL CO2 EMISSIONS = 209.45 million tons (2004) [ΔT] = 44.8[F] 95 86. Cemisgezek 58. Bolu 1.0 82 r = 0.810 1.0 87. Doğubeyazıt • TOTAL FOREST LAND = 20 694 541 hectars (2003) r = 0.802 86 98 0.9 59. Bozkurt 0.9 94 93 88. Elaziz 0.8 58 60. Cerkes 0.8 83 89. Erzincan 92 ΔT(mean)= +0.86°C 72 76 61. Corum 90. Erz urum 2.0 60 61 86 97 49 MARMARA REGION 0.7 71 0.7 99 91. Hakkari 1.9 7562 62. Düzce 81 0.6 68 73 92. Igdır 1.8 LULEBURGAZ 63 78 66 53 0.6 74 ΔT(mean)= +0.5°C 63. Giresun 90 85 93. Kars 0.5 79 0.5 1.7 39. Bahçeköy 54 55 65 64. Gümüshane 77 69 m 91 94. M alazgirt 1.6 40. Bandırma 0.4 56 70 52 70. Nall ıhan 0.4 59 80 65. Hopa 95. Muradiye 1.5 41. Bilecik 0.3 71. Ordu 84 96. Muş 67 57 66. Ilgaz 0.3 88 1.4 42. Bursa 64 72. Rize 97. Oltu 0.2 Total Forestry Land 67. Inebolu 0.2 Total Forestry Land: 1.3 43. Çanakkale 73. Samsun 98. Sarıkamıs 0.1 68. Kastamonu 1.2 5 380 599 ha (2003) 74. Sinop 0.1 1 675 740 ha (2003) 99. Tunceli 44. Çorlu (ºC) ANNUAL TEMPERATURE OF DIFFERENCE T], 0.0 69. K ız ılcahama 100. Van 1.1 45. Edirne 75. Ş . Karahisar [Δ 0.0 1.0 (ºC) TEMPERATURE ANNUAL OF DIFFERENCE T], 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 76. Tokat ΔT(mean)= +0.5°C 46. İstanbul [Δ 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 0.9 3 77. Tosya 3 47. Kırklareli [F], FORESTRY LAND, (x 10 hectar) [F], FORESTRY LAND, (x 10 hectar) 0.8 48. Kocaeli 78. Trabzon 0.7 44 46 50 51 49. Lüleburgaz 79. Unye 0.6 43 48 41 BULGARIA 50. Tekirdağ 80. Zonguldak GEORGIA 0.5 47 BLACK SEA 39 51. Yalova 0.4 45 40 42 THRACE 0.3 Total Forestry Land: 0.2 45 47 57 67 74

(ºC) ANNUAL TEMPERATURE OF DIFFERENCE T], 0.1 3 018 194 ha (2003) 49 56 52 [Δ 0.0 Hamitabat 80 ISTANBUL 59 68 Hopa 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 M.Ereglisi 44 46 Catalagzı 73 72 53 83 54

GREECE GREECE (Fuel Oil) 3 (300 MW) ARMENIA [F], FORESTRY LAND, (x 10 hectar) 50 Ambarlı 39 48 77 79 63 78 İzmit 62 (Hard Coal) 71 (630 MW) 58 97 51 66 64 93 40 61 75 41 60 98 92 43 42 76 90 69 81 Can (1432 Cayırhan Kırıkkale 87 1.4 Orhaneli 89 AEGEAN REGION 111 117 125 (320 MW) MW) (210 MW) (620 MW) 1.3 127 131 113 24. Akhisar 55 99 94 Tuncbilek 70 ANKARA 1.2 114 85 95 25. Aydın 26 Kangal Soma (420 MW) 124 112 86 82 1.1 26 Bergama (460 MW) 96 (1034 MW) 24 36 Seyitömer 118 1.0 DENİZLİ 27 27. Denizli 105 31 (600 MW) 24 28. Gediz Aliaga 32 35 28 88 IRAN 0.9 Lake 128 Lake 122 116 100 29. İzmir 37 84 33 29 IZMIR 109 Aksehir Tuz 3 11 Batman Lake 0.8 36 30. Köyceğiz 133 129 ΔT(mean)= +0.7°C 35 Van 31. Kütahya 25 27 110 Elbistan 101 0.7 25 123 132 102 107 38 26 29 32. Manisa Lake (2800 MW) 0.6 Yeniköy Yatagan 31 33. Milas Burdur Beysehir 119 91 28 34 (420 MW) (630 MW) 16 9 0.5 34. Muğla 10 126 6 17 Lake 106 32 35. Simav 34 1 Su Gözü 0.4 33 38 12 19 120 18 20 36. Tavşanlı AEGEAN SEA 121 115 (1200 MW) 103 108 0.3 37 37. Uşak 30 Kemerköy ANTALYA 130 104 38. Yatağan (630 MW) 7 22 2 0.2 KÖYCEGIZ 21 30 Total Forestry Land: 13 0.1 3 150 647 ha (2003) 14 IRAQ T], DIFFERENCE OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (ºC) TEMPERATURE ANNUAL OF DIFFERENCE T], 4 23 (imported COAL POWER PLANTS (Lignite) [Δ 0.0 15 coal) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 5 8 SYRIA POWER PLANTS (Natural Gas) 3 [F], FORESTRY LAND, (x 10 hectar) MEDITERRANEAN SEA OIL REFINERY

1. Acıpayam 109. Afyon 1.4 1.4 MEDITERRANEAN REGION + The Lakes Region 2. Adana CENTRAL ANATOLIA 110. Aksaray 1.4 SOUTH EASTERN ANATOLIA 1.3 3. Afşin 1.3 111. Ankara ● West Mediterranean Part 120 1.3 1.2 MERSIN 4. Alanya 112. Cicekdag (under the sea effect) 1.2 116 1.2 ELBIS TAN 5. Anamur 113. Divrigi 1.1 22 128 ○ East Mediterranean Part 1.1 114. Kangal -0.001[F] 11 6. Andırın 1.1 101 (Batman) [ΔT] =0.79e 1.0 16 7. Antakya 1.0 132 111 127 -0.003[F] 115. Karaman 14 -0.28 123 [ΔT] = 0.9 e 1.0 r = 0.755 101. Batman 122 116. Kayseri 0.9 [ΔT] = 2.26[F] 8. Antalya r = 0.723 0.9 112 117. K ırıkkale 0.9 102. Diyarbakır 1 r = 0.810 9. Beyşehir 103 0.8 130 121 118. K ırsehir 105 103. Gaziantep 10. Burdur 0.8 110 0.8 17 117 (mean) 133 113 109 119. Konya ΔT = +0.7 °C 104. Kilis 0.7 5 11. Elbistan 126 (mean) 106 3 12 21 0.7 ΔT = +0.8 °C 120. Konya Eregli 0.7 105. Kulu 6 118 115 20 12. Elmalı 108 0.6 0.6 131 121. Konya Selcuk 107 106. Mardin 13. Fethiye 114 0.6 7 23 122. Nevsehir 107. Siirt 0.5 ΔT(mean)= +0.6°C 4 8 0.5 13 14. Finike 123. Nigde 0.5 108. Urfa 18 15. Gazipaşa 104 0.4 15 19 10 9 0.4 124. Polatl ı 0.4 16. Isparta 129 125. Sivas 0.3 17. K.Maras 0.3 126. Ulukı sla 0.3 2 0.2 Total Forestry Land: 18. Karaisalı 0.2 Total Forestry Land: 119 127. Yozgat 0.2 Total Forestry Land: 19. Korkuteli 128. Cihanbeyli 102 0.1 4 732 581 ha (2003) 0.1 1 739 887 ha (2003) 0.1 1 008 595 ha (2003) (ºC) TEMPERATURE ANNUAL OF DIFFERENCE T], 129. Ilgın T], DIFFERENCEANNUALT], OF TEMPERATURE (ºC) 20. Kozan (ºC) TEMPERATURE ANNUAL OF DIFFERENCE T],

[Δ 130. Hadım [Δ 0.0 21. Manavgat 0.0 [Δ 0.0 131.Akdag Madeni 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 22. Mersin 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 132. Develi 3 23. Silifke [F], FORESTRY LAND, (x 10 hectar) [F], FORESTRY LAND, (x 103 hectar) 133. Bolvadin 3 [F], FORESTRY LAND, (x 10 hectar) N. TOKGÖZ

Figure 5. Distribution of the thermal power plants working with fossil fuels among the various geographical regions in Turkey, and relationship between the existence of forests (F) in these regions, and the average annual increase in temperature (∆T) between the periods of 1975-1992 and 1993-2006 • In residential and industrial areas which are heated by coal and natural gas and which exist in hollow valley lands, the temperature increase draws attention. The most typical examples of these areas are provincial centers such as Denizli, Acıpayam, Burdur, Kahramanmaras, Gaziantep, Kayseri, and Van.

• The average annual temperature increase draws more attention in areas of high mountains. It should be taken into consideration that in high areas, there is the influence of fuel (coal and natural gas) consumption for heating in winter.

• The total of the lands of destroyed and highly destroyed forests and the lands that should be included in forests is 16 million hectares, and these areas should immediately be afforested and the soil protection measures should be taken.

• As a matter of fact, in a research made in the forest areas of the Marmara Region of Turkey, it is reported that the amount of fixed CO2 is 2.9 -3.2 ton/ha, whereas the amount of oxygen produced is 2.3 - 2.4 ton/ha (Kantarcı, M.D, 1997).

• Turkey’s total green house gas (GHG) emissions excluding LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry) rose from 170.1 Mt to 296.6 Mt between 1990 and 2004. In 2004, net GHG emission was reported as only 222.53 Mt (TMOEF, 2007). CO2 makes up the largest share of Turkey’s total emissions, accounting for 81.6 % (Figure 5). The figure clearly shows that 74.1 Mt of coal-based CO2 emissions were removed by sinks in 2004. The amount of the removed CO2 absorbed by forests is approximately 90 % (74.1 x 0.90 = 67 Mt). With respect to the CO2 emission resulting from electricity generation, the parallel between the values of produced and absorbed CO2, particularly after 1997, is extremely striking. 0.93 billion tones out of the total 2.85 billion tones of CO2 released in Turkey between the years 1990 and 2004 has been absorbed by its own forests.

400 Σ GHG = 3.58 Billion ton (1990-2004 Period) Σ CO = 2.85 Billion ton (1990-2004 Period) 350 2 Σ ( REMO VED C O ) = 0.93 Billion ton (1990-2004 Period) 2 lLUCF 296.61

300 286.29 279.97

270.62 ΣREMOVED 262.10

256.78 256.64 255.52 CO2

242.10 250 BY LUCF

220.72 (1990-2004) 203.99 200.48

193.64 200 181.97 170.07 221.46 222.53 204.54 215.44 192.82 192.24 191.92 150 192.92 181.96

EMISSION ( Million tons) Million ( EMISSION CO EMIS S IO N TR END S

160.63 2

2 145.50

140.94 REMOVED BY LUCF

100 134.42 CO 126.73 126.53

CO2 EMISSIONS 50 BASED ON ELECTRICITY GENERATION 0

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YEARS N. TOKGÖZ Figure 6. GHG and CO2 Emissions Based on Electricity Generation and Removals between 1990 and 2004 5. SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS OF ATMOSPHERIC WARMING IN TURKEY

Atmospheric warming has led to significant effects in Turkey, especially since 1993. Every year, 20.47 billion tones of CO2 released into atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere come over Turkey via west to east air circulation in the atmosphere. Turkey has come under a process of warming/drought due to the impact of this high CO2. The obvious results of the warming can be seen in glaciers in high mountains and lakes in low land areas (especially in shallow lakes).

Shallow lakes located in low altitudes either dried (e.g. Lake Aksehir, Lake Eber, and small lakes in the closed Konya basin) or shrank (e.g. Lake Tuz, Lake Burdur) (Kantarcı, M.D., 2006). Another important issue to consider within these lines is the increased frequency of heavy rains and their damaging effects in recent years. Deforestation in mountain regions and erosion also contribute to the destruction.

Glacier melt-down can be tracked by satellite images, while people can directly observe these changes with their own eyes (Kantarcı, M.D., 2006).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the whole of the study, some of the important results can be summarized as follows:

• World CO2 emission caused by fossil fuel combustion grew from 24.98 Gt in 2003 to 26.58 Gt in 2004, an increase of 6.4 % (1.6 Gt). The world CO2 increase in 2004 is 28% compared to the 1990 value (Figure 1).

• Large fossil fuel consumer countries also emit large amounts of CO2; examples include such countries as the USA (5.8 Gt), China (4.8 Gt), Europe (3.5Gt), Russia (1.5 Gt), Japan (1.2 Gt), and India (1.1 Gt) (emission values are from 2004) [Figure 1 and 2(a)].

• World proven coal reserves are 907 billion tones. Total coal production in the world is 4.9 billion tones. Numerical evaluation shows that coal will be available for future electricity generation in all regions of the world for a couple of hundred years [(Figure 1(a)].

• In 2004, with its level of 2.92 tones CO2/capita, Turkey was nearly 1.5 fold below the world average of 4.18 tones CO2/capita [Figure 2(b)]. An important point which draws attention here is that Portugal (+27%), Greece (+25%), and Spain (+15%) have been allowed to increase their CO2 emissions by taking advantage of a “burden sharing” [EU COM (99) 230 final report] article, while CO2 emission per capita 7 EU member countries is quite higher than Turkey. Turkey should review this situation carefully with respect to its possible obligations before signing the Kyoto Protocol.

• Energy has been vitally important for the development of societies throughout history. The development of countries is impossible without utilizing existing domestic natural resources. Coal, particularly lignite, is the most abundant domestic resource of Turkey. This fossil fuel comprises the biggest share of primary energy production in Turkey with 43% of the total. After 1985, the share of lignite power plants in electricity generation was gradually decreased to 34% due to a rapid increase in the share of natural gas power plants (52.1% in 2004) (Table1). • Current energy policy in Turkey focuses on natural gas production (50-60% of total electricity production) resulting from foreign agreements involving take-or-pay obligations. Strict planning that takes geo-strategic and geo-politic facts along with domestic resources into consideration (i.e. energy-economy-ecology) is necessary for determining the main features of national energy policies. Energy planning is of great importance, especially in developing countries such as Turkey, for preventing excess spending investment spending.

• Different weather types appear according to the differing characteristics of pressure systems near the ground and in the upper atmosphere. The movement of air follows a path toward Turkey over the Icelandic Cyclone and the Atlantic Ocean (over the Northwestern and Western Mediterranean). In Turkey, in the low and hollow valley lands between the mountains (depression areas), the air subsides as it becomes heavier with the dust cloud and creates heating islands. As a matter of fact, when the areas included in the data from the 133 meteorology stations were regarded merely as depression areas (hollows) and evaluated individually, the average temperature increase in the hollow areas was as much as 0.9 Cº.

• In Turkey, drought results from warming, and warming results from the CO2 emission coming and subsiding over the country. In Turkey, the average annual increase in temperature from the formation of heating islands (resulting from the geomorphologic structure) has reached up to 1.0 - 1.9 Cº (Figure 5).

• Turkey’s total GHG emissions excluding LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry) rose from 170.1 Mt to 296.6 Mt between 1990 and 2004. In 2004, the net GHG emission was reported as 222.53 Mt (TMOEF, 2007). CO2 makes up the largest proportion of Turkey’s total greenhouse emissions, account for 81.6% of the total. The prior figure also clearly shows that 74.1 Mt of CO2 emissions were removed by sinks in 2004. The amount of the removed CO2 absorbed by forests is approximately 90% (74.1 x 0.90 = 67 Mt) (Figure 6). In the CO2 emission resulting from electric production; the parallel between the values of “produced CO2 and removed CO2” particularly after 1997 or close relationship with the scale is extremely striking.

• Turkey is affected by the CO2 production of countries to the north and northwest and the CO2 emission (from the Mediterranean Sea and the Aegean Sea) of countries in the west. Every year, 20.47 Giga tones of CO2 (including LULUCF) released into the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere comes over Turkey via atmospheric air movements from the west towards the east. Turkey has come under a process of warming/drought due to the impact of this high CO2.

• CO2 emission released into the atmosphere by Turkey is close to 1% of the CO2 emission of the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. Turkey has produced a total of 2.85 Giga tones of CO2 in the last 15 years. However, currently, the same amount of CO2 is produced by North America in six months and by European countries in one year. These levels emphasize the tremendous differences between developed and developing countries. For this reason, the Kyoto Protocol affects Turkey primarily in terms of emission reductions of countries in the Northern Hemisphere which produce much higher percentages of CO2.

• Coal-based thermal power plants provide for continuity and stability of electricity generation. It is obvious that power plants working with coal constitute a significant part of world energy production policy. However, besides the fact that development cannot be sustained if environmental problems are ignored, it should be considered that economically weak countries do not have sufficient resources to bear the expenses of environmental protection.

• Capture and storage are the most important techniques for the mitigation of CO2 emission. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs, possible coal formations, and saline formations can be used for storage of CO2. Turkey must urgently prepare for geological storage inventory of CO2. In particular, coal mining and electricity-generation companies should start to investigate geological storage as a mitigation option of relevance to their industry.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This work was supported by Research Fund of University of Istanbul. Project number: UDP1570/31082007.

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