2017 Year in Review Canadian Real Estate Investment Banking 2017 Canadian Real Estate Year in Review
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2017 Year in Review Canadian Real Estate Investment Banking 2017 Canadian Real Estate Year in Review Table of Contents Introduction 1 Economic Outlook 2 Equity Market Commentary 3 Equity Market Capitalization 5 M&A Market Commentary 7 Bank Market Commentary 8 Real Estate Public Debt Market Commentary 9 “Current pricing of Canadian REITs reflects discounts to Property Transactions 11 fair value for investors with 2017 Year-End Monitor 15 a long-term horizon; but also Public Real Estate Trading Performance 19 captures the potential for 2017 Leadership in Real Estate Investment Banking 25 near-term volatility.” Dean Wilkinson Executive Director, Equity Research CIBC World Markets Inc. the greatest volume of transactions with $8.7 billion or 47% of Introduction the total transaction volume. This transaction volume included a number of core, marquee office trades in Toronto, Vancouver and Chris S. Bell & Mark G. Johnson Montreal. Overall there was a shift in focus to urban, core real Co-Heads & Managing Directors, estate across the entire real estate sector in 2017 with a number Real Estate Investment Banking of public and private entities announcing dispositions of non-core assets. While some of these non-core dispositions occurred in 2017, it is expected that additional transactions will be completed What Happens Next in 2018. 2017 was a positive year for Alberta, where, after a 2017 was a relatively stable year notwithstanding the Bank number of quiet years, transaction volume increased to over of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in $1.2 billion. While still small when compared to peak transaction seven years. The S&P/TSX REIT Index was up slightly for the volumes observed in 2012 at $3.4 billion, these trades represented year, cap rates remained constant at historic lows, transaction the first material Alberta transactions in over two years. volumes continued to increase and access to capital for real 2017 also saw a pick-up in public M&A activity in the Canadian estate investments remained abundant. Only time will tell if these real estate sector with total volume of $10.9 billion compared to market dynamics will continue to hold in 2018 and what impact, if $2.1 billion in 2016. There were three sizable transactions in 2017: any, will be observed by the expectation of rising interest rates. the privatization of Milestone Apartment REIT by the The Bank of Canada overnight interest rate rose twice in 2017 Starwood Capital Group; the acquisition of Brookfield Canada from 50 bps to 100 bps. As at the publishing of this document, Office Properties by Brookfield Property Partners LP; and, the the Bank of Canada has already raised the overnight interest acquisition of OneREIT by SmartCentres REIT and Strathallan rate once in 2018 to 125 bps, the highest level seen since 2009. Capital Corporation. After declining in the first half of the year from 1.721% to 1.393%, As we enter 2018, the convergence of both positive and the 10-year Government of Canada ("GOC") bond yield rose to concerning trends leaves the market uncertain. Corporate profit close the year at 2.045%. Despite this movement in interest rates, margins remain strong, overall global growth remains positive, Canadian real estate equities delivered solid performance during and the recently announced U.S. tax reform should spur economic 2017, with the large-cap weighted S&P/TSX REIT Index rising 4% growth south of the border. However, the impact of concerning and achieving a total return of 10% over the calendar year. trends such as stagnant wage growth, relatively depressed oil In terms of capital raises, the beginning of 2017 had similar and gas prices, and the uncertainty surrounding the NAFTA strength to the end of 2016 with $5.0 billion raised in the first half negotiations remain unclear. Further, heightened geopolitical risk of the year for public real estate investment trusts ("REITs") and from the Middle East and Korean Peninsula and the fact that the real estate operating companies (“REOCs”). Although new issue current growth cycle is one of the longest on record, continue activity slowed in the second half of the year with $3.3 billion to weigh on the economy. How these forces will impact federal raised, 2017 still ranked as the third largest year of total capital bankers’ actions and the real estate sector in 2018 remains raised over the past 10 years with $8.3 billion. This was only 10% unclear, but they will undoubtedly create opportunities in the less than the highest year on record-2012, when $9.4 billion was marketplace. raised. By way of additional comparison, $6.9 billion was raised in As always, we thank you for your business and we look forward to 2016 and $5.4 billion in 2015. working with you and your colleagues on the opportunities ahead. The Canadian property market remained active in 2017 with total transaction volume of $18.4 billion, a significant increase over the $11.4 billion of volume seen in 2016. The office sector experienced S&P / TSX Capped REIT Index One-Year Price Performance S&P / TSX Capped REIT Index 10-Year Price Performance 110 110 150 150 125 125 105 105 100 100 17 = 100 - 08 = 100 - 75 75 Jan 100 100 - Jan 1 - 1 50 50 95 95 25 25 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. CIBC 2017 Canadian Real Estate Year in Review | 1 year and a similar move in 2019. That reflects the increased Economic Outlook sensitivity of a more indebted household to higher rates and the fact that, in contrast to the U.S., mortgages are not Avery Shenfeld locked in for 30 years. Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets Inc. Moreover, unlike the U.S., where fiscal and regulatory policy changes will be stimulative, Canada faces a drag from tighter mortgage policies, the loss of a prior corporate tax The Peter Pan Expansion advantage vs. the U.S., and the uncertainties following what we expect will be a breakdown in NAFTA talks this spring. Like Peter Pan, this global expansion seems to be staying So while real estate equities will face the challenge posed young forever, as some of the usual signs of old age and by rising short and long terms rates, a factor that has seen recession risks – a material heating up in inflation, sharply the sector underperforming the TSX in the last six months, higher interest rates – are as yet not in sight. That gives rate hikes could end up being less than has been priced-into economic growth, both globally and in North America, some expectations as of early this year. rein to continue in 2018. But in Canada, odds are that the gains will come with less vigor than what we saw in our G-10 The retail sector starts 2018 with the benefit of a household leading performance in 2017. sector that has been well armed with labour income from recent job gains and some firming in pay scales. But we are To some extent, Canada will be a victim of its own success. In coming off a year of upside surprises in consumption that the U.S., employment as a share of the prime-age population rested on an acceleration in credit usage and a lower savings is still well below the prior cycle’s peak, leaving room for rate. Nominal retail sales looked to have tracked close to tax cuts to fuel a slightly faster 2.5% growth rate in 2018. 7% growth last year (with November-December data not yet The Fed will still be tightening policy, with our forecast for a available), but the squeeze from higher interest rates and the total of 75 bps in rate hikes aimed at moderating growth by need to replenish savings could cut that to under 4.5% this 2019, when the U.S. will be closing in on full employment. In year. Canada, the labour market has more than eclipsed the prior cycle’s employment rates, suggesting a cap on growth just Housing starts had a banner year in 2017, and a roughly 10% above 2% this year, after a roughly 3% 2017 pace. deceleration in 2018 would still leave activity at an elevated level. Much of what is underway entails the construction of That is still a decent performance, one that will help fill up condos sold some time ago. Look for a slower pace to new offices, generate revenue gains for retailers, and support sales under tighter mortgage regulations and higher rates home building to meet demand in what are still tight to bring a further construction slowdown in 2019. Price markets in major centres. The issue for real estate activity momentum has eased in the Greater Toronto Area, as it had and valuations is the extent to which the moderation in earlier in Greater Vancouver in response to policy measures, growth will come from higher interest rates, as opposed to but rental demand is still strong in these major centres. other headwinds. To the relief of the rate-sensitive real estate sector, a moderation in growth could be realized with a small dose of policy tightening, perhaps as little as an overall 50 bps this 2017 – Canada / U.S. Exchange Rate 2017 – 10-Year Government of Canada Bond Yield 1.40 1.40 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.30 1.30 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.20 1.20 1.4% 1.4% 1.10 1.10 1.2% 1.2% J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Bloomberg.