Religion, Conflict, and Stability in the Former Soviet Union
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Religion, Conflict, and Stability in the Former Soviet Union Volume Editors: Katya Migacheva, Bryan Frederick C O R P O R A T I O N barcode_template_CC15.indd 1 12/11/17 1:46 PM For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2195 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9984-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: The main mosque in Grozny, the capital of Russia's Caucasus region of Chechnya (Reuters/Said Tsarnayev); Gandzasar monastery (Creative Commons/Mushegh Ghulyan). Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Considerable scholarly work across disciplines has sought to understand the roots of conflicts that have plagued the former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but it has rarely focused on religion as an important factor. Instead, analysts have often cited the Soviet legacy of forced unification, linguistic and cultural assimilation, and arbitrarily drawn borders between the republics to explain regional volatility. The shared atheistic Soviet past and, as a consequence, presumed low religi- osity across most of the former republics also may have led researchers to dismiss reli- gion as a meaningful actor in stability and conflict in the former Soviet Union (FSU). However, the remarkable religious revitalization in most post-Soviet states in recent years demands a closer look at religion and its potentially important role in regional stability and instability across this highly varied region. To improve understanding of the manner in which religion has affected conflict and stability in the FSU, this volume develops both a nuanced examination of specific post-Soviet countries and an identification of common trends across the region. To achieve the breadth and depth of expertise required for such an analysis, we invited contributions from a multidisciplinary group of scholars, from within and beyond RAND, each with either extensive regional knowledge or expert understanding of the role of religion in stability and conflict in general. This volume represents a collection of analytical essays by these invited experts and concludes with the analysis of the context-specific features and shared trends, and their policy implications. The research was sponsored by the Henry Luce Foundation, under the Initia- tive on Religion in International Affairs program, which supports projects aiming to achieve a deeper interdisciplinary understanding of the role of religion in international affairs and to foster dialogue between the academic community and policymakers. The research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, for- eign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities, foundations, and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ................................................................................... ix Summary .............................................................................................. xi About the Authors ..................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ................................................................................. xvii Abbreviations ........................................................................................ xix CHAPTER ONE Religion, Conflict, and Stability in the Former Soviet Union Katya Migacheva and Bryan Frederick .......................................................... 1 About This Volume .................................................................................... 5 Overall Themes ......................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER TWO Armenia-Azerbaijan: Rethinking the Role of Religion in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Artyom Tonoyan .................................................................................. 11 Religion and Conflict Analysis ......................................................................12 Politicizing Religion and Religionizing Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh .......................16 Religious Symbols and Cleavages in the Conflict .................................................21 Reflections on Future Trajectories ..................................................................32 CHAPTER THREE The North Caucasus: How Islam and Nationalism Shaped Stability and Conflict in the Region Sufian N. Zhemukhov ............................................................................ 35 Why Young People Turn to Islam in the North Caucasus: Revival of Islam in the North Caucasus ..........................................................................37 What Drove People Toward Religion? ............................................................. 40 Nationalism and Islam in Russia’s North Caucasus ............................................. 43 How Different Ideological Trends Shaped Radicalization in the North Caucasus .......... 48 v vi Religion, Conflict, and Stability in the Former Soviet Union Russia’s Evolving Antiterrorism Concept ...........................................................55 Reflections on Future Trajectories ..................................................................62 CHAPTER FOUR Central Asia: Where Did Islamic Radicalization Go? Svante E. Cornell ................................................................................. 65 The Rise and Fall of Islamic Radicalism in Central Asia ....................................... 66 Cultural and Historical Determinants of Islam in Central Asia .............................. 77 External Islamic Influences ......................................................................... 80 Government Policies ..................................................................................85 Reflections on Future Trajectories ................................................................. 96 Special Feature Religion and Intergroup Conflict: A Social-Psychological Approach Steven L. Neuberg and Gabrielle Filip-Crawford ..............................................99 A Social-Psychological Approach ................................................................... 99 The Global Group Relations Project and Survey ................................................ 104 Findings: Religious Infusion, Values Incompatibility, and Resource Competition ......... 110 Implications of Social-Psychological Approaches for Policy and Practice .................... 111 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 114 CHAPTER FIVE Kazakhstan: Islamic Revival and Trajectories of State-Society Relations Nargis Kassenova ...............................................................................115 Islamization and Fragmentation of Society ...................................................... 117 State Policies Toward Islam: Changes over Time ............................................... 127 Contestation Between the State and Religious Movements .................................... 133 Reflections on Future Trajectories ................................................................ 136 CHAPTER SIX Ukraine: Religious Confessions in Competition Under the Dominance of Political Discourse Vadym Vasiutynskyi ........................................................................... 139 Religious Confessions in Ukraine, Past and Present ............................................ 139 The Nature of Interconfessional Tensions in Ukraine .......................................... 144 Sociopolitical and Psychological Differences .................................................... 150 People’s Perceptions of the Role of Religion in the Conflict in Donbas ...................... 153 Reflections on Future Trajectories ................................................................ 155 Contents vii CHAPTER SEVEN Russia: