Unasylva 240, Vol

61 Forests in the next 300 years J. Blaser and H. Gregersen FAO/V. MAKSIMOV FAO/V. “Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree.” – Martin Luther (early sixteenth century) The global forest estate will he oak tree being planted as we At the global scale, the question of whether be much larger in 2313, and write on a cold morning in 2013 at individual trees such as these survive to forest managers will be very a university campus on the Swiss maturity is unimportant, but the overall important people. Tplateau should reach maturity sometime fate of the forests of which they are part is in the twenty-fourth century. All going crucial. Forests and trees are a renewable well, the sipo tree (Entandrophragma resource, providing an enormous range of utile) that has just established itself in a goods and ecosystem services. In the face rainforest gap in northern Republic of the of expected declines in the availability Congo, starting a life of fierce competi- of non-renewable resources and massive tion for light and nutrients, will overgrow environmental change, the fate of trees the forest canopy to become an emergent and forests in the next 200–300 years is Juergen Blaser is Professor of International Forestry, Bern University of Applied tree sometime after 2350. The fir seedling Sciences – School of Agricultural, (Abies sibirica) in the Northern Ural of Above: The Kaybitsky Forest, the Forest and Food Sciences, Switzerland. the Russian Federation, which today is Russian Federation, which houses Hans Gregersen is Professor Emeritus, genetic reserves of oak trees. Department of Forest Resources, University 20 cm tall, will have a stem diameter of Maintaining forest biodiversity will of Minnesota, USA. 60 cm by 2313. be crucial for a sustainable future Unasylva 240, Vol. 64, 2013/1 62 of fundamental importance to humanity. We assume that people will continue to will face in the next 300 years, social Forests come and go (Box 1), but in the change and that those who live 300 years cohesion will generally be maintained. last several hundred years there has been from now will differ greatly from us in Societies will become increasingly demo- a dramatic decline. Nevertheless, there many ways that we cannot predict. We cratic, research capacity will increase, and is potential to reverse this and to greatly assume, however, that their fundamental nanotechnologies and other undreamed-of increase the global forest resource. In this values will remain the same – they will innovations will flourish. Three hundred article, we consider the factors that will value environmental quality, economic years ago, societies used forests and trees influence the fate of forests in the next prosperity and social equity. for the same basic reasons we use them 300 years, and predict a world that is more As discussed below, we assume that the today, but in totally different ways. We reliant than ever on its forests – and on its overall consumption of resources will expect that the same will be true 300 years forest managers. increase due to population growth and from now – the same benefits will be growth in per capita consumption. At reaped from forests, but in many new the same time, we expect that climate ways. Below, therefore, we make a case Forests come and go change will have dramatic impacts on for expanded demand for forests and trees the environment, potentially inducing over the next 300 years and therefore for Fourteen thousand years ago, at the end major movements of people and leading to an expanded global forest estate. of the last glacial period, the world’s increased conflict and civil unrest. Forest forests were found mainly in refuges destruction could continue unabated and MAJOR CHALLENGES AND A in hot and humid Southeast Asia, the even increase over the next decades. In his PATHWAY FOR CHANGE central Amazon, West and Central acclaimed A Brief History of the Future, Figure 1 shows the major elements we Africa and the southeast of North Attali (2011) envisioned that “forests will considered in projecting what will happen America (Adams, 1997) and covered be rarer and rarer, devoured by the packag- to forests in coming centuries. Of the an area of less than 2 billion hectares ing and paper-making businesses and by many challenges and drivers (Box I in (ha). As temperature and humidity the expansion of agriculture and cities”. Figure 1) that will influence forests of increased, forests expanded to their Despite such a potentially bleak medium- the future, we focus on what we view largest extent of more than 9 billion ha term outlook, we choose to accept an in the mid-Holocene, 7 000–9 000 years equally reasonable assumption; namely, 1 ago. From about 3 000 years ago, the that, despite the many problems humanity The future of forests: challenges, forest area declined steadily as humans responses and impacts developed from hunters and gatherers leads to II. Implications in terms to farmers and herders (Figure 2). We of growth in demand for estimate the net loss of forest area since resources: IV. Supply responses and the early 1700s at about 1 billion ha, all leads to • Space their impacts on forests: of it human-induced. Nevertheless, in • Arable land • Increased harvest the last two decades, 77 countries have • Forest goods • Increased conversion of • Forest services changed from being net losers of forests forest land for non-forest • Energy uses to net gainers, although the forests being • Biodiversity • Increased trade I. The major challenges added are often quite different from the • Increased planted forest, and drivers of change forests being lost (Putz, forthcoming). agroforests, urban forests affecting forests: • Management intensification • Population growth • Growth in per capita III. Tools and human Impacts on forests: abilities available THE MAIN ASSUMPTIONS income • Initial increase in to influence supply 1 • Human-induced climate deforestation and forest The information age is giving rise to dra- change responses and impacts: degradation matic changes in the way in which societies • Ingenuity • Biodiversity and habitat loss live, think, work, buy and prioritize future • Innovation • Increased GHG emissions • Technology development • Increased vulnerability of investments, and the humans of today are species and ecosystems motivates • Education, extension very different – physically, mentally and • Increased economic • Models of management, activities spiritually – to those of 300 years ago. governance, cooperation • Economic reasoning and prioritization 1 The first two “ages” were the agricultural age influenced by and the industrial age (Toffler, 1980). Unasylva 240, Vol. 64, 2013/1 63 14 000 years ago (based on Adams, 1997) 8 000 years ago (based on WRI, 1997) Last Glacial Maximum (18 000 14C years ago) Early Holocene (8 000 14C years ago) Closed forest Extreme desert Closed forest Extreme desert Today (based on remote sensing map FAO and JRC, 2012) 2 as the three most important: population the responses to the challenges, and the The world’s forest area growth; growth in per capita consump- responses, in turn, will determine the size tion; and climate change. These give rise and nature of the impacts (Box IV). Each for the world population to grow from to many challenges (Box II), but also to of these four elements (as shown in boxes 60 million to 600 million people in 1700 many opportunities to meet the challenges I–IV) is discussed below. (McEvedy and Jones, 1978) and only by providing incentives for ingenuity and 300 years to grow almost twelve-fold to innovation to flourish and leading to the Major challenges and drivers of 7 100 million in 2012. However, the good development of new technologies and ways change affecting forests news, based on a well-justified “medium of organizing societies (Box III). Societal Population growth. The world is getting growth” scenario, is that the world’s priorities, abilities and tools will determine more crowded. It took about 2 000 years population will grow, at a slowing rate, to Unasylva 240, Vol. 64, 2013/1 64 around 9 billion by 2050 and then stabilize than population growth rates. The con- non-deforesting uses. This increased up to 2300 and beyond (UN, 2004). The sumption of goods and services differs acknowledgement of the importance of growth to 2050 will occur nearly exclu- dramatically between poorer and richer forests is one reason why most developed sively in tropical and subtropical countries, countries, both in absolute and relative and middle-income countries are now net mainly in Africa and Asia, where defor- quantities. According to the Worldwatch adders to their forest areas. Another reason estation for food production is likely to Institute (2011), “the 12% of the world’s is that some major countries have “exported remain a challenge for the next 50 years. population that live in North America their deforestation” to mainly developing However, the current trend of migration and Western Europe account for 60% of countries by becoming net importers of from tropical areas to temperate areas, and private consumption spending, while the food and forest products because they are from rural to urban areas, is also likely to third of the population that lives in South often cheaper than domestic production continue, perhaps mitigating the direct Asia and sub-Saharan Africa accounts for (Gregersen et al., 2011). impacts of population growth on forests. only 3.2%”. As per capita incomes increase Climate change. Science-based predic- A global population of 9 billion people in developing countries it is likely that tions of climate change generally do not could live sustainably (see, for example, resource consumption will also rise. go beyond 100 years from now; thus, a Tudge, 2007), except for expected growth Income growth will also shift the mix projection to 300 years involves many in per capita consumption.

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