Implementing an Integrated, Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG 3IS)
Oksana Tarasova 1 and James Butler 2,3 Towards a Global Carbon Observing System: Progress and Challenges 1-2 October 2013, Geneva
1WMO Global Atmosphere Watch, Geneva, CH 2WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences, Geneva, CH IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO 3Global Monitoring Division, NOAA/ESRL Boulder, CO, USA GEO-Carbon 2013 Outline
• Drivers of the need for an IG 3IS • Components of an IG 3IS • What WMO is doing • An international framework beyond WMO • Beginnings of an IG 3IS
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A Few Fundamentals . . .
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Atmospheric CO 2 - The Primary Driver of Climate Change Pre-industrial level of CO 2 was 280 ppm
• Atmospheric CO 2 continues + 75 ppm to increase every year within 50 years The trend is largely driven by fossil fuel emissions • The growth rate increases decadally Variability is largely driven by the Earth System • The Earth System continues to capture 50% of emissions Despite the increase in emissions Do we understand carbon cycle?
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Methane is
Pre-industrial CH 4 confounding was 700 ppb
• After ~10yr hiatus, CH 4 began increasing again in 2007 • Cause of this increase is uncertain Sources of atmospheric CH 4 are legion CH 4 growth rate contours Renewed interest in extraction • The recent trend seems to be largely driven by emissions in the tropics and subtropics The arctic was significant only in 2007 Extraction does not seem significant – yet
IGIS (Plots courtesy of E.Tarasova Dlugokencky, and Butler, NOAA) WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 400 ppm
May 31, 2012
Monthly CO 2 averages reached 400 ppm for the first time at all arctic sites.
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 400 ppm
May 9, 2013
The daily average CO 2 reached 400 ppm for the first time at Mauna Loa.
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Observations above 400 ppm CO 2 at GAW Global Stations
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A global challenge
• Society is attempting to advance efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions and will likely do so even more in the future
• Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach
• The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs are challenging, but surmountable.
• Emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) all require independent , scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions.
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, 9WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 We cannot manage what we cannot measure . . . .
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Tools for Global Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases
• “Bottom-up” estimate (Accounting = “checkbook”) Emissions reporting Reported and “verified” offsets Site-specific measurements
• “Top-down” estimate (Validation = “bank statement”) Comprehensive atmospheric observation system Ecosystem and ocean observations
• Reanalysis (compares checkbook with bank statement) Transport model Assimilation Regional fluxes (emission and uptake)
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 “Bottom-up” vs. “top-down”
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Gaps in the current integrated observing system
• Insufficient density of the observations over the ground, sea and in the free atmosphere • Insufficient measurements of isotopes and co-emitted gases for source attribution • Incompatible observations on different scales (e.g. global and local observations) and in different media (e.g. atmospheric observations vs. pCO2 observations) • Insufficient complexity and performance of transport models on global/regional and local scales
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 CO 2 and Other GHGs Data Integration Products
Atmosphere Biosphere
WMO Domain (with partners, e.g., GCOS, CEOS) Emission Surface Based Aircraft Ocean Inventories
Satellite (Satellite) Mapping
Deep Ocean Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 So, What is WMO Doing?
• WMO Capabilities
WMO Global Atmosphere Watch o Long term observing network for greenhouse gases o Other observing networks for atmospheric composition (e.g., aerosols, ozone) o Support for “megacities” research
World Weather Research Programme o Improving forecast models • Seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions (with WCRP) • Polar Prediction Program (with WCRP) • Tropical Meteorology • Others . . Improving transport resolution
World Climate Research Programme o Improving climate models o Focused efforts, e.g., extreme events, statistical downscaling, etc.
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 IG 3IS Implementation (within WMO)
WMO/GAW CAS Mgt GGMT CAS (May 2013) (Jun 2013) (Nov 2013)
• Bimodal approach Active Orgs WMO WMO Exec within WMO Congress Council o ICOS, China, Brazil, INACP, (Jun 2015) (Jun 2014) SE Asia, et al. Partners Who should have responsibility o FAO, UNEP, ICSU, GEO, for service delivery? GFCS? GCOS, GOOS, WMO is working to coordinate et al. its contribution.
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A Multi-Agency Collaboration (These are examples of just some possible players for an IGIS)
Surface-based GHG Monitoring
WMO Aircraft GHG Measurements CEOS Modeling Improvements
IEA How to connect? Data Management & QA/QC With whom to connect? ICSU Satellite GHGs
BIPM Emission Inventories FAO Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes
UNEP Satellite Mapping IOC Surface Ocean GHG Monitoring
Deep Ocean GHG Monitoring
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 TCCON Some surface-based networks
NOAA ICOS
AGAGE
WMO Global Atmosphere Watch FluxNet
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Coordinating Networks in Developing Countries
• Emerging Networks anchored with WMO/GAW stations • Using WMO/GAW Standards • Taking part in GAW QA/QC Activities • Sharing Data Openly • Placing Data into World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases
Tefé
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Satellites
“Carbon Weather”
China
TCCON SE Asia
Current Network
Brazil Earth Networks Tefé
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Recommendations
There is a strong need for : • development of the observing system in atmospheric domain (increase of spatial coverage and complexity) • development of the modeling tools to deliver products on the temporal and spatial scales relevant to decision making • collaboration between the “spheres” • Inter-agencies coordination
IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013