Implementing an Integrated, Global Information System (IG 3IS)

Oksana Tarasova 1 and James Butler 2,3 Towards a Global Carbon Observing System: Progress and Challenges 1-2 October 2013, Geneva

1WMO Global Atmosphere Watch, Geneva, CH 2WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences, Geneva, CH IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO 3Global Monitoring Division, NOAA/ESRL Boulder, CO, USA GEO-Carbon 2013 Outline

• Drivers of the need for an IG 3IS • Components of an IG 3IS • What WMO is doing • An international framework beyond WMO • Beginnings of an IG 3IS

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A Few Fundamentals . . .

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Atmospheric CO 2 - The Primary Driver of Pre-industrial level of CO 2 was 280 ppm

• Atmospheric CO 2 continues + 75 ppm to increase every year within 50 years  The trend is largely driven by fossil fuel emissions • The growth rate increases decadally  Variability is largely driven by the System • The Earth System continues to capture 50% of emissions  Despite the increase in emissions  Do we understand carbon cycle?

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Methane is

Pre-industrial CH 4 confounding was 700 ppb

• After ~10yr hiatus, CH 4 began increasing again in 2007 • Cause of this increase is uncertain  Sources of atmospheric CH 4 are legion CH 4 growth rate contours  Renewed interest in extraction • The recent trend seems to be largely driven by emissions in the tropics and subtropics  The arctic was significant only in 2007  Extraction does not seem significant – yet

IGIS (Plots courtesy of E.Tarasova Dlugokencky, and Butler, NOAA) WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 400 ppm

May 31, 2012

Monthly CO 2 averages reached 400 ppm for the first time at all arctic sites.

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 400 ppm

May 9, 2013

The daily average CO 2 reached 400 ppm for the first time at .

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Observations above 400 ppm CO 2 at GAW Global Stations

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A global challenge

• Society is attempting to advance efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions and will likely do so even more in the future

• Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach

• The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs are challenging, but surmountable.

• Emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) all require independent , scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions.

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, 9WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 We cannot manage what we cannot measure . . . .

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Tools for Global Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

• “Bottom-up” estimate (Accounting = “checkbook”)  Emissions reporting  Reported and “verified” offsets  Site-specific measurements

• “Top-down” estimate (Validation = “bank statement”)  Comprehensive atmospheric observation system  Ecosystem and

• Reanalysis (compares checkbook with bank statement)  Transport model  Assimilation  Regional fluxes (emission and uptake)

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 “Bottom-up” vs. “top-down”

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Gaps in the current integrated observing system

• Insufficient density of the observations over the ground, sea and in the free atmosphere • Insufficient measurements of isotopes and co-emitted gases for source attribution • Incompatible observations on different scales (e.g. global and local observations) and in different media (e.g. atmospheric observations vs. pCO2 observations) • Insufficient complexity and performance of transport models on global/regional and local scales

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 CO 2 and Other GHGs Data Integration Products

Atmosphere Biosphere

WMO Domain (with partners, e.g., GCOS, CEOS) Emission Surface Based Aircraft Ocean Inventories

Satellite () Mapping

Deep Ocean Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 So, What is WMO Doing?

• WMO Capabilities

 WMO Global Atmosphere Watch o Long term observing network for greenhouse gases o Other observing networks for atmospheric composition (e.g., aerosols, ) o Support for “megacities” research

 World Weather Research Programme o Improving forecast models • Seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions (with WCRP) • Polar Prediction Program (with WCRP) • Tropical • Others . . Improving transport resolution

 World Climate Research Programme o Improving climate models o Focused efforts, e.g., extreme events, statistical downscaling, etc.

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 IG 3IS Implementation (within WMO)

WMO/GAW CAS Mgt GGMT CAS (May 2013) (Jun 2013) (Nov 2013)

• Bimodal approach  Active Orgs WMO WMO Exec within WMO Congress Council o ICOS, China, Brazil, INACP, (Jun 2015) (Jun 2014) SE Asia, et al.  Partners Who should have responsibility o FAO, UNEP, ICSU, GEO, for service delivery? GFCS? GCOS, GOOS, WMO is working to coordinate et al. its contribution.

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A Multi-Agency Collaboration (These are examples of just some possible players for an IGIS)

Surface-based GHG Monitoring

WMO Aircraft GHG Measurements CEOS Modeling Improvements

IEA How to connect? Data Management & QA/QC With whom to connect? ICSU Satellite GHGs

BIPM Emission Inventories FAO Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes

UNEP Satellite Mapping IOC Surface Ocean GHG Monitoring

Deep Ocean GHG Monitoring

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 TCCON Some surface-based networks

NOAA ICOS

AGAGE

WMO Global Atmosphere Watch FluxNet

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Coordinating Networks in Developing Countries

• Emerging Networks anchored with WMO/GAW stations • Using WMO/GAW Standards • Taking part in GAW QA/QC Activities • Sharing Data Openly • Placing Data into World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases

Tefé

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013

“Carbon Weather”

China

TCCON SE Asia

Current Network

Brazil Earth Networks Tefé

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Recommendations

There is a strong need for : • development of the observing system in atmospheric domain (increase of spatial coverage and complexity) • development of the modeling tools to deliver products on the temporal and spatial scales relevant to decision making • collaboration between the “spheres” • Inter-agencies coordination

IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013