Implementing an Integrated, Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG 3IS) Oksana Tarasova 1 and James Butler 2,3 Towards a Global Carbon Observing System: Progress and Challenges 1-2 October 2013, Geneva 1WMO Global Atmosphere Watch, Geneva, CH 2WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences, Geneva, CH IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO 3Global Monitoring Division, NOAA/ESRL Boulder, CO, USA GEO-Carbon 2013 Outline • Drivers of the need for an IG 3IS • Components of an IG 3IS • What WMO is doing • An international framework beyond WMO • Beginnings of an IG 3IS IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A Few Fundamentals . IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Atmospheric CO 2 - The Primary Driver of Climate Change Pre-industrial level of CO 2 was 280 ppm • Atmospheric CO 2 continues + 75 ppm to increase every year within 50 years The trend is largely driven by fossil fuel emissions • The growth rate increases decadally Variability is largely driven by the Earth System • The Earth System continues to capture 50% of emissions Despite the increase in emissions Do we understand carbon cycle? IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Methane is Pre-industrial CH 4 confounding was 700 ppb • After ~10yr hiatus, CH 4 began increasing again in 2007 • Cause of this increase is uncertain Sources of atmospheric CH 4 are legion CH 4 growth rate contours Renewed interest in extraction • The recent trend seems to be largely driven by emissions in the tropics and subtropics The arctic was significant only in 2007 Extraction does not seem significant – yet IGIS (Plots courtesy of E.Tarasova Dlugokencky, and Butler, NOAA) WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 400 ppm May 31, 2012 Monthly CO 2 averages reached 400 ppm for the first time at all arctic sites. IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 400 ppm May 9, 2013 The daily average CO 2 reached 400 ppm for the first time at Mauna Loa. IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Observations above 400 ppm CO 2 at GAW Global Stations IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A global challenge • Society is attempting to advance efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions and will likely do so even more in the future • Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach • The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs are challenging, but surmountable. • Emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) all require independent , scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions. IGIS Tarasova and Butler, 9WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 We cannot manage what we cannot measure . IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Tools for Global Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases • “Bottom-up” estimate (Accounting = “checkbook”) Emissions reporting Reported and “verified” offsets Site-specific measurements • “Top-down” estimate (Validation = “bank statement”) Comprehensive atmospheric observation system Ecosystem and ocean observations • Reanalysis (compares checkbook with bank statement) Transport model Assimilation Regional fluxes (emission and uptake) IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 “Bottom-up” vs. “top-down” IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Gaps in the current integrated observing system • Insufficient density of the observations over the ground, sea and in the free atmosphere • Insufficient measurements of isotopes and co-emitted gases for source attribution • Incompatible observations on different scales (e.g. global and local observations) and in different media (e.g. atmospheric observations vs. pCO2 observations) • Insufficient complexity and performance of transport models on global/regional and local scales IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 CO 2 and Other GHGs Data Integration Products Atmosphere Biosphere WMO Domain (with partners, e.g., GCOS, CEOS) Emission Surface Based Aircraft Ocean Inventories Satellite (Satellite) Mapping Deep Ocean Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 So, What is WMO Doing? • WMO Capabilities WMO Global Atmosphere Watch o Long term observing network for greenhouse gases o Other observing networks for atmospheric composition (e.g., aerosols, ozone) o Support for “megacities” research World Weather Research Programme o Improving forecast models • Seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions (with WCRP) • Polar Prediction Program (with WCRP) • Tropical Meteorology • Others . Improving transport resolution World Climate Research Programme o Improving climate models o Focused efforts, e.g., extreme events, statistical downscaling, etc. IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 IG 3IS Implementation (within WMO) WMO/GAW CAS Mgt GGMT CAS (May 2013) (Jun 2013) (Nov 2013) • Bimodal approach Active Orgs WMO WMO Exec within WMO Congress Council o ICOS, China, Brazil, INACP, (Jun 2015) (Jun 2014) SE Asia, et al. Partners Who should have responsibility o FAO, UNEP, ICSU, GEO, for service delivery? GFCS? GCOS, GOOS, WMO is working to coordinate et al. its contribution. IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 A Multi-Agency Collaboration (These are examples of just some possible players for an IGIS) Surface-based GHG Monitoring WMO Aircraft GHG Measurements CEOS Modeling Improvements IEA How to connect? Data Management & QA/QC With whom to connect? ICSU Satellite GHGs BIPM Emission Inventories FAO Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes UNEP Satellite Mapping IOC Surface Ocean GHG Monitoring Deep Ocean GHG Monitoring IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 TCCON Some surface-based networks NOAA ICOS AGAGE WMO Global Atmosphere Watch FluxNet IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Coordinating Networks in Developing Countries • Emerging Networks anchored with WMO/GAW stations • Using WMO/GAW Standards • Taking part in GAW QA/QC Activities • Sharing Data Openly • Placing Data into World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases Tefé IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Satellites “Carbon Weather” China TCCON SE Asia Current Network Brazil Earth Networks Tefé IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013 Recommendations There is a strong need for : • development of the observing system in atmospheric domain (increase of spatial coverage and complexity) • development of the modeling tools to deliver products on the temporal and spatial scales relevant to decision making • collaboration between the “spheres” • Inter-agencies coordination IGIS Tarasova and Butler, WMO GEO-Carbon 2013.