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Narco State Or Failed State? Narcotics and Politics in Guinea-Bissau

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Narco State Or Failed State? Narcotics and Politics in Guinea-Bissau NARCO STATE OR FAILED STATE? NARCOTICS AND POLITICS IN GUINEA-BISSAU by Ashley Neese Bybee A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy Committee: Jack A. Goldstone, Chair Louise I. Shelley Terrence Lyons Peter Gastrow, External Reader James Pfiffner, Program Director Edward Rhodes, Dean Fall Semester 2011 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Narco State or Failed State? Narcotics and Politics in Guinea-Bissau A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Ashley Neese Bybee Master of Public Policy George Mason University, 2006 Bachelor of Arts University of Virginia, 2001 Director: Jack A. Goldstone, Professor School of Public Policy Fall Semester 2011 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2011 Ashley Neese Bybee All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to my son, J.D., whose imminent arrival while I was scrambling to write this dissertation was 150% my motivating force for completion. I hope he embraces culture, politics, academics, science, sports, and the arts in a way that allows him to make a meaningful contribution to society, whatever it may be. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank the many family, friends, professors, and colleagues who have supported me in this endeavor: My husband, Jon, was patient for five years while I spent nights and weekends researching, writing, crying, and complaining. The different perspectives he offered forced me to think through my research rigorously and thoroughly. Without his encouragement during the tough times, it would have been inordinately harder for me to achieve this goal; My IDA colleagues, mentors, and friends, in particular Barry Crane, Susan Clark-Sestak, Robert Soule, Rick Porterfield, Ed Smith, Richard White, Amy Alrich, H.T. Johnson, among many others, all of whom pushed, encouraged, and reminded me on a daily basis why I was working towards this goal; My parents, Don and Melinda Neese, who exemplify hard work and unrelenting commitment. I am forever indebted to them for the work ethic, goal-oriented approach, and inquisitive mind which they instilled in me from a very young age, without which completing this program part-time would never have been possible; My Dissertation Committee, whose insightful comments, critiques, guidance, and ideas have absolutely contributed to a quality research product of which I am proud. My Chair, Dr. Jack Goldstone, helped translate ideas into actionable research, particularly when I was struggling to move forward. Dr. Louise Shelley continuously offered her perspectives, help, and personal contacts to support my career. Dr. Terrence Lyons reminded me that Africa is different, and that those principles that may apply in other parts of the world are not appropriate, or even relevant in Africa. Lastly, Peter Gastrow, who took the time to read this dissertation and offered his expert perspective on bridging the gap between African politics and transnational crime; Beth Eck and Shannon Williams Hettler, who answered each and every question, provided assistance whenever called upon, and were always responsive and reliable. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ....................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ..................................................................................................... viii Abstract ...................................................................................................................x 1. Introduction ................................................................................................1 The Evolution of Drug Trafficking through West Africa ............................4 Why Has West Africa Been Targeted? ......................................................16 The Importance of this Research ...............................................................22 2. Literature Review ....................................................................................35 The Globalization of Illicit Trade ..............................................................35 Security in the 21st Century .......................................................................40 The Resource Curse ...................................................................................44 “States” – Modern Ones and African Ones ...............................................54 Corruption ..................................................................................................69 Guinea-Bissau in Context ..........................................................................79 3. What is a Narco-State? Hypotheses, Research Questions and Methodology 85 Existing Definitions of a Narco-State ........................................................86 The Narco-State Framework ......................................................................96 Hypotheses and Research Questions .......................................................102 Methodology ............................................................................................104 4. Case Studies ............................................................................................117 Jamaica .....................................................................................................118 Mexico .....................................................................................................129 Tajikistan..................................................................................................142 Turkey ......................................................................................................160 5. Guinea-Bissau .........................................................................................174 Hypothesis 1: Guinea-Bissau has narco-corruption, but political institutions are not fundamentally compromised. ....................................174 Hypothesis 2: Guinea-Bissau does not have a narco-economy. ..............203 Hypothesis 3: Guinea-Bissau has not experienced narco-violence over control of the drug trade. ..........................................................................222 Hypothesis 4: The Guinea-Bissauan population has not been affected by the drug trade. ..........................................................................................235 v Hypothesis 5: Instability resulting from the drug trade will manifest itself in fundamentally different ways depending on the capacity of a state to control its territory and govern its people. ...............................................246 6. Synthesis..................................................................................................257 RQ1: What have been the impacts of the drug trade in Guinea-Bissau? .257 RQ 2: How much state capacity is functioning and how much has been “captured”? ..............................................................................................264 RQ 3: What are the mechanisms by which drug trafficking could destabilize a failed state? .........................................................................267 RQ 4: Where does Guinea-Bissau lie on the spectrum of Narco-States? 274 RQ 5: How do the impacts of drug trafficking differ in a Transit State with varying institutional strengths and capacities, i.e., a failed state versus a functioning state? .....................................................................................279 7. Conclusion ..............................................................................................284 Summary of Findings ...............................................................................284 Narco-State or Failed State? ....................................................................286 Policy Implications ..................................................................................291 Final Thoughts .........................................................................................299 Annex A: Empirical Evidence for Jamaica .....................................................301 Annex B: Empirical Evidence for Mexico .......................................................328 Annex C: Empirical Evidence for Tajikistan ..................................................364 Annex D: Empirical Evidence for Turkey .......................................................389 References ...........................................................................................................410 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Relation Between the Geography of a Resource and Type of Conflict ...51 Table 2. Comparison of Clientelistic and Democratic Regimes ............................58 Table 3. Index of Narcostatization Indicators ........................................................93 Table 4. Spectrum of Government Enforcement of Laws Against Trafficking ....95 Table 5. Features of Narco-Corruption in Transit States .....................................247 Table 6. Drug-Related Instability in Selected States ..........................................250 Table 7. The Spectrum of Narco States ..............................................................277 Table 8. Impacts of the Drug Trade ....................................................................280 Table 9. The Cost of Crime in Jamaica................................................................307 Table 10. Homicides
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